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Parker Spitzer

Revolution in Egypt

Aired February 11, 2011 - 20:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KATHLEEN PARKER, CO-HOST: Good evening. I'm Kathleen Parker.

ELIOT SPITZER, CO-HOST: And I'm Eliot Spitzer.

Eighteen days, that's all it took to turn a pharaoh into a deposed despot. I'll never get tired of watching this. The moment the news broke -- this is what it felt like at the presidential palace.

(VIDEO CLIP PLAYS)

SPITZER: Wael Ghonim was at his mother's house when he heard the news. His first words, "Welcome back, Egypt."

A lot of people think he's the man who made this happened by starting the Web site that galvanized the movement. But Ghonim says we played a role, this network, CNN. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WAEL GHONIM, EGYPTIAN PROTESTER (via telephone): Thank you and you folks on Tahrir Square. You guys have played a great role in saving the lives of hundreds if not thousands of people. This regime did not care about the people and they would have killed a lot of people if there was no international media. CNN did a great job. You guys deserve a great commission from all the Egyptian people. We're not going to forget your role.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SPITZER: Thank you, Wael. We're going to appreciate these words for a long time.

And even now, the public is still celebrating its newfound freedom. Here they are at 3:00 in the morning in Cairo.

PARKER: The newly installed military leadership promises to honor the will of the people and deliver the country to democracy, when or whether they do so remains to be seen. But now matter how you cut it, today, history was made in Egypt.

Now, let's go live to Tahrir Square and take a look.

Senior international correspondent Nic Robertson has been there all day. Nic, do you think they'll ever get tired of freedom over there?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Right now, they're living in the moment, living on the wave, riding the wave -- it's a wave they have built themselves from the Internet revolution that began here just 2 1/2 weeks ago. It's the euphoria, the crowds are thinning a little bit. But there's still dancing in the streets here.

I'm joined by Wahel (ph), a young man who's been part of the demonstration here.

Wahel, how did it feel when you heard that President Mubarak was stepping down?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, at first, I (INAUDIBLE) I didn't believe. I was at a friend's house near Tahrir and we just -- we did it. We hugged each other. People were cheering and we were so happy.

I just thought why the vice president was saying the speech because before it, on some channels, we heard that the army (INAUDIBLE) speech. So, I didn't understand speech. So, I didn't think about it in this specific minute. I was happy. I was beaming. We were all hugging.

ROBERTSON: And we were talking before and you were saying the international community and the West has perhaps some wrong perceptions about what the young people here want. What sort of future are you looking for right now?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are looking for a sovereign state, for a state of (INAUDIBLE). We are looking for getting the Egyptian world (ph) respect. We are not talking for any more wars from now. We want to build a country, build on institutions, not persons. We want to see a change in policies and not in persons.

We have a lot of dreams and I think we got the (INAUDIBLE) in Egypt.

ROBERTSON: Right now, the army is in charge and, really, nobody knows how the army is going to run the country. What are you -- what are you expecting and what are your worries?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm not that worried because after the speech of the army today, to serve notification, there were two points when I stopped and thought about it, and I respected the army really when I think about those two points.

The first point when they said we are not a substitution to the constitution and the rule of the people. That was very clear. And the second, when the army speaker said we are happy for what happened and we are not going to leave the people, and just did -- the army, I don't know the word in English.

ROBERTSON: There's been a lot of talk here, people are talking a lot today, but all the people that have died in this revolution in the past two weeks. What do -- what do you want to see happen to them and their families?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think -- I think we can -- we can build something for them. I think the new government and the new regime is responsible for getting their families to live a better family. And also, we are young (ph) in our society, we are responsible for getting them and their families to live and get the glory -- they have the glory now. They are one of the many reasons for our better future.

ROBERTSON: A lot of people have told me they are going to be tidying up the square tonight. Will you be joining them with that?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE)

ROBERTSON: A lot of people have told me they'll be tidying up Tahrir Square?

(CROSSTALK)

ROBERTSON: Will you be joining them tonight?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are doing this today and tomorrow morning. And I think by tomorrow -- by tomorrow night, a lot of people are going to leave Tahrir and we want to leave something that assures us of the coming democratic (INAUDIBLE). We hope the (INAUDIBLE) would speak directly about the coming election and what things that they're going to do.

ROBERTSON: People might stand in the square longer if they don't hear the right thing from the army.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: For me, I do believe and respect the army. And I think they're going to do what the people want. It was clear in the served notification.

But some people here are still worried about their safety. I'm not sure if they're going out, but I think the army will be here, most of them and it will make this country more safe and go back to their homes. And from Sunday, every Egyptian will go back to his work and to his permanent life with a new spirit to build this country and lead the Arab world and go back to the Egypt (INAUDIBLE).

ROBERTSON: Wahel, thank you very much.

So there you have heard it, the voice of one young man here, part of this massive revolution and part of this massive street party here tonight in Tahrir Square -- Eliot, Kathleen.

PARKER: Well, Nick, this is Kathleen. There are so many people there and there's so much excitement, the celebration is ongoing obviously. But, you know, you said tomorrow, they're planning to do a cleanup.

Is this some sort of coordinated effort? Is there anyone emerging from all these crowds to sort of -- to speak or is this still a Twitter exercise? Or how is this being coordinated exactly? ROBERTSON: You know, I've been standing here with a medical clinic, the young doctors, and they're all young doctors who have volunteered their services in the worst of time to help out people here. And when they got a few spare moments there, I've seen them sitting in a corner with their 3G wireless Internet connection, looking to their Facebook, checking out the latest news. The Internet has helped drive this so far.

It's very much alive, very much part of their lives here. But the cleanup is an individual effort in the same way that so many people signed up on the Internet to come down here and join the demonstration on the 25th of January. It's the same individual spirit that we're seeing here, people clearing up the mess here, ready for tomorrow and for Sunday -- Kathleen.

SPITZER: You know, Nic, you zeroed in on the critical issue I've been thinking about all day, which is the role of the military in all this. They are the big winners right now in terms of power. And you had that one conversation. Clearly, this protester trusts them.

What is your sense? Do most of the protesters trust the military right now to follow through with their pledge to turn this into a democracy or do they get a little skeptical that maybe the military wants to hold on to its power?

ROBERTSON: You know, since the police were driven off the streets on the 28th of January, there's tense street battles that we witnessed here and across the country. But the army came on the streets within hours of that. And people put their faith in the army that day.

I think a lot of us have looked to the army and said, will they go with the president or will they go with the people? They seem to have steered a middle course. They haven't done anything so far, just told the people here that they're going to go against them.

I think there is a general feeling here among people, a genuine general feeling that they can trust the army at this point. But, of course, what they have seen the army do in the coming days is going to guide them from here. They have achieved a goal of getting President Mubarak to step down.

The army is the sort of interim position and I think that's the general consensus, that if you don't have the army, then what else do you have? You might have chaos. They're the best option that they have. But they will be judging what they see in the coming days.

SPITZER: All right, Nic. Nic, thank you so much. Of course, that will be the story in the days and months ahead, what does the military do?

Now we turn to Amre Moussa, he is one of Egypt's most popular politicians. The head of the Arab League was greeted with cheers from the crowd when he made his first appearance in the Tahrir Square last weekend. He is frequently mentioned as a leading candidate to be the next president of Egypt. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SPITZER: So, Mr. Moussa, congratulations on this unbelievable turn of events? What's going to happen next?

AMRE MOUSSA, ARAB LEAGUE SECRETARY GENERAL (via telephone): Thank you very much. In my opinion, efforts should concentrate on building a national consensus on how to approach the future. We should know in the next few days what the high council, military country will tell the nation. But the goal should be reform and democracy. I believe this would be the agenda that we have to work out, agree on and go ahead to implement.

This needs elections, parliament, a line of policy, a roadmap and Egyptian people and the high council are rally capable of doing.

PARKER: Secretary General, the question on everyone's mind in Egypt as well as here, is, of course, will you run for president?

MOUSSA: Well, I believe this is not an issue to discuss today or tonight, everybody is just cheering the events. There is a lot to be done. We still have to hear from the high council. And the time for such a question will come.

SPITZER: How long do you think it should take them to begin to put together the structure, the new constitution, to be able to lift martial law, and return to its state of genuine freedom?

MOUSSA: Well, the sooner the better, but we are talking about six or seven months.

SPITZER: Who should participate in drafting to the new constitution and how will you recommend that the supreme council of the armed forces pick the right people? How should they decide who's involve in that process?

MOUSSA: We'll leave that for the supreme council on how (INAUDIBLE) procedures of the election. But for a new constitution or any constitution, it needs constitutional experts and Egypt is full of them.

PARKER: Mr. Moussa, as you no doubt know, no human rights groups have reported that the military actually participated in detaining some of the protesters and some of whom were tortured. Do you have complete faith that the military can guide Egypt to democracy?

MOUSSA: I want to tell you that watching the relationship between the army personnel and the individuals and the people that we're seeing on Tahrir Square, those relations were very (INAUDIBLE). There's a special relationship. The leader of the army was also a very good one vis-a-vis the demonstrators.

So, I hope if there's anything of that kind, that will be resolved very soon and very quickly.

SPITZER: What will the role be for religion in a democracy that is created in Egypt going forward?

MOUSSA: Had you been here, you would have seen this new or renewed positive relationship between all sections of Egyptian society, including Muslims, Christians, men and women, old and rich. That is a new mood, a new spirit. And they believe under this new environment, the constitution will be affected of the original, the basic trend in the Egyptian political scene which is tolerance, modern. It has to be part of the 21st century. Egypt has to be reform and be in the Arab world and the Middle East, and this requires a modern constitution.

PARKER: How do you envision Egypt's policy changing or not toward the United States?

MOUSSA: Well, the policy -- it is in our best interest to have the best relations with the U.S. And I believe the United States also realized that it is the best interest to have relations with Egypt. Egypt -- meaning the government and the people, and the policy has to go in that direction.

We have to be objective now. You know what our interests are and we know what your policies are, and we each have an understanding, especially on the major issues that have to be addressed in an effective way.

SPITZER: What do you think will happen? Do you -- are you confident that the treaty between Egypt and Israel will continue to be respected and abided by and part of Egypt's foreign policy?

MOUSSA: Egypt's foreign policy has certain basics, and Egypt's policy towards peace will continue to be peace. We, of course, for peace. And the basic document would be the Arab Initiative, which calls for peace and has the consensus of all Arab countries and therefore, we will for it. We're basing all the policy, all the political diplomatic actions, diplomatic moves on the peace that is called for unanimously by all Arab countries according to the Arab Initiative.

Any other bilateral commitment to be respected.

SPITZER: Mr. Moussa, this revolution has been spreading. It began in Tunisia. And then, of course, we've seen these remarkable 18 days in Egypt. Where will it go next?

MOUSSA: Well, the only thing I want to tell you here is the winds of change are sweeping the Arab world and Middle East. How it would move and what direction, when, where, I'm not in a position, I believe, to judge very well what the extent will be. But it is -- it is -- in my opinion, the winds of change have started.

SPITZER: All right. Mr. Moussa, thank you so much for joining us and we wish you continued good luck and you have all of our congratulations in what you have accomplished.

PARKER: Thank you, Mr. Moussa.

MOUSSA: Thank you very much. Thank you very much.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PARKER: Coming up, the protesters finally got rid of Mubarak, but what happens now? When we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SPITZER: Back with continuing coverage of the dramatic events in Egypt today.

But the picture you're seeing right now is in Washington, D.C., in front of the Egyptian embassy where there is needless to say a celebration.

But here's the amazing this: this party, the invitations were sent out by the Egyptian embassy itself. They sent out e-mails saying come, celebrate the change of power. This is the same embassy that until 24 hours ago was pulling down the ramparts for the old regime -- a dramatic shift, even there, along the diplomatic corridor in Washington, D.C. -- quite a scene indeed.

PARKER: Well, I didn't get my e-mail, but joining us now are: Middle Eastern scholar, Fouad Ajami, professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced international Studies; Jamie Rubin, executive editor at the "Bloomberg View" and a former assistant secretary of state under President Clinton.

Welcome, gentlemen. Thanks for joining us.

SPITZE: All right. Well, here's how I see it -- all this dramatic stuff has happened, the pharaoh has fallen. It seems to me there are three possibilities as we go forward: one, we have got a new military dictatorship that could come forward. Two, we get a secular democracy. Or three, we're getting an Islamic state.

Which one do you think it is and how long does it take until we know which of these three competing objectives will eventually?

JAMIE RUBIN, THE BLOOMBERG VIEW: Well, I suspect you won't find much disagreement. I don't think it's a military state that's going to result from this. I think the military realized over the last 2 1/2 weeks, there was a negotiation with the people on the street. And every time the regime didn't meet the demands of the people, they came out in bigger numbers.

If they don't meet the demands of the people again, if they don't lift emergency law, if they don't allow for a free media and free association and the constitutional changes that will permit a free election, these people know they now have the power. I think the only good part about the military being there, is I don't think there's any reason to fear that they would allow the Muslim Brotherhood to have a leg up.

FOUAD AJAMI, JOHNS HOPKISN UNIVERSITY: I love multiple choices tests, by the way. It's ABC, but actually, it's none of the above. It's an Egyptian mess. Here is the way it will work.

We're saying, will there be a Muslim Brotherhood? Will it be a theocracy? No. The Egyptians are too wise for a theocracy. They're too skeptical of people. There will be an Islamic current (ph) but there won't be a theocracy.

With the military dictatorship, no, because the military really doesn't want to govern such a complicated country. It wishes to have a dominant role. But it's not going to govern.

Will it be a secular democracy? It will so in an Egyptian variety. I think what's good is now the Egyptians will now make their own history. And they have now been given a chance, given themselves this chance.

The Egyptians have always been the most submissive of the Arabs, that's their image of themselves and that's the image other people have of them. And they rose and gave us one of the most amazing revolutions in modern history. I mean, that's kind of --

SPITZER: (INAUDIBLE), for one second on this issue, because you have in all your writings written about the role of the military. And the military has been the bastion of power basically for 50 years in Egypt. Why now and even today, although it's not polite to call it a coup, in essence, the military has harnessed all the power again. Why will they give up?

Yes, Jamie, you're right. The public is screaming for it, but the military has withstood that in the past, hasn't it?

RUBIN: The reason why -- the reason why this worked, is there's a simple calculation in China, in Iran, in Egypt, in the Philippines, and going forward in other places -- if the military will use force against its own people, these revolutions fail. The Egyptian military from the beginning said they wouldn't use force so it was just a question of time until the people won. They have made that decision and if they have made that decision, their ability to control the situation in the future is rather limited.

PARKER: But this does seem like a continuation of the status quo and I'm still not convinced that the military is going to be eager to give it up, they own 5 percent to 20 percent of the economy, based on some reports from "Foreign Affairs," I think, published a report.

So, I don't why is it in their interest to hand that power over?

AJAMI: Well, look, the privileges of the officer corps will continue. I mean, these men - they are the ruling class. They have been the ruling class in modern Egyptian history. Nobody is going to take away from them those kinds of privileges.

The question is can they rule a complicated country, a complex society? And do they want to govern it? And will the people let them?

The military witnessed the daring of the Egyptians. They came out into the streets and defied pharaoh. He dared them, and they came back, every day they returned. And I think people have discovered their own efficacy.

I mean, what you hear from the Egyptians, the sense of wonder of themselves, if you will, the sense of wonder of their own history is just is the most -- I mean, I think I came into political awareness as a young boy, (INAUDIBLE) maybe I was 10 or 11. This is the most stunning event in modern Arab history that I have witnessed in my lifetime. Both as someone who grew up in the Arab world and then later as a scholar and chronicler of the Arab condition.

PARKER: Well, we just heard Amre Moussa that the winds of change are sweeping the Arab world.

AJAMI: They're sweeping him out as well.

PARKER: Oh, they will?

(LAUGHTER)

AJAMI: He's really part of the old order. He's part of -- he's actually part -- to use what young people used to say once upon a time, he really is part of the problem rather than part of the solution.

RUBIN: If you go forward into other countries, and this is where our discussion about the military's role (ph), what do Tunisia and Egypt have in common? The military made a decision not to intervene.

You go to Iran, and we have enormous numbers of people on the street, not so long ago, 18 months ago, but the security services were prepared to kill them, arrest them, put them in prison and if you go to Syria, you have a military regime that in the past has been prepared to commit mass murder. So, we have to make these distinctions.

(CROSSTALK)

SPITZER: They made a decision to intervene, but not with violence. They made a decision to intervene to let the revolution play out rather than to shore up the status quo. I think you're exactly right. Their decision not to use force against the public permitted the public to break through that barrier of fear and then assert its own popular will in the streets.

RUBIN: That's why these winds of change may blow in certain places where the military may allow that or the security services or the state. But other places like I mentioned, Iran, Libya, Syria, the winds of change may come up against a brick wall.

SPITZER: Let me follow up, Professor, with something you said, which is that Amre Moussa is the past. He will be swept away by these winds of change.

What is going on now within that group, the leadership group of the revolution? And they are there even though they have not been so visibility. In terms of the jockeying to figure out who is the visible face, who will run for the presidency, who will emerge as that voice?

AJAMI: By the way, you don't have to call me professor anymore. That was many years ago. You can use my first name.

(CROSSTALK)

AJAMI: I think--you know, look, we don't know. I mean, some young Egyptian sent me a poem he wrote and he said that these were heroes without names, that the people who did this revolution are heroes without names. Now, the military junta is the military junta, the officer corps, the senior officer corps.

And I think we will see -- we will see the balance between the civilian who came out and claimed this country for themselves and the military. And nobody wants the military out of the game. I mean, the people maybe they even exaggerate how fond they are of the military because they needed the military as a shield against a police state that this terrible man, Hosni Mubarak, had built over the last three decades.

PARKER: Jamie, do you have any idea how this actually took place, I mean, the tick-tock over the last 24 hours leading up to Mubarak actually stepping down?

RUBIN: I mean, clearly something went on yesterday where we were mentioning in the break how this speech by Mubarak yesterday which really actually had significant components didn't go over very well, where he was handing power to his vice president.

It looked before he gave the speech, like military officials were telling journalists in Cairo that the military was going to do yesterday what it did today. So, that does tell you that between yesterday and today, some important things were going on inside that room between the key officials, Mubarak, the people around him, they were saying how far can I stay, if I stay, will the military protect my palace, my family in Sharm el-Sheikh?

I don't think the United States played a particularly significant role over the last 24 hours. I think what changed things were the military seeing that the ante was upping. And one day after, Mubarak really does something dramatic, gives away all his power and then an increase in the number of people that came out on the street, and that's when it ended.

SPITZER: Can I interrupt you one second? You were just about the only one in the aftermath of Mubarak's speech yesterday, I heard you on TV saying, wait a minute, he actually did something very different. And it was either lost in the translation, in fact, networks have very different reports, instantaneously. Some said he does nothing. Some said he transfers significant power.

It is possible, you were saying, that this was just one massive communication failure because he intended to give Suleiman, a lot of power, basically transfer away the presidency, but nobody understood it that way.

RUBIN: And it wasn't enough. I mean, even if they understood the powers were being transferred, and I do think that's the constitutional amendments that they -- provisions they were applying were those for incapacitation of a president. So, it was real, but it wasn't enough. They really wanted to see the regime go and there would have been real questions of whether Suleiman could have sustained as Mubarak's handpicked, you know, right hand man, whether he could have sustained power in the face of this anger.

SPITZER: Right.

RUBIN: And so, I think we avoided that problem by going straight past him, leaving the constitution aside. That's the key question over the last 24 hours. The Egyptians decided to take their existing constitution, flawed as it was, and just put it aside. And in America, we said, oh, my god, extra-constitutional. But sometimes making an extra constitutional status is a great thing for democracy.

SPITZER: Having read a little bit of that constitution, it wasn't such a big loss in the first instance. There are clearly nervous folks in the leadership in Israel. But, Fouad, where do you think Arab leaders are most nerve us, having seen this tidal wave or the winds of change or whatever words you use?

AJAMI: Ever since the massacre that took place in 1982, the Arab people had been afraid of the governments. Now the governments have to be afraid of their own populations. The awe has been lost.

It's kind of happened over the -- look at the episodes. There was a spider-hole, Saddam, was flushed out of the spider-hole in 1993. And then came the spectacle. And so I think that many Arab governments are worried and they should be worried. They treat their people badly. They brutalize them, they plunder the money. There's no social contract in many of these states. And I think they have every right to be worried.

But as Jamie said, one has to be careful where and how. I would not want example to be a rebellion in Syria because my worry is that the Syrian regime would commit such atrocities, because this would be a sectarian a fight between the elite. So it would vary from one place to the other.

SPITZER: We got to take a quick break. When we come back Ben Wedeman will join us from Cairo in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SPITZER: Joining from Cairo is CNN's senior international correspondent Ben Wedeman. Ben, let me ask you, what is going to happen now to Vice President Omar Suleiman? He sort of dropped off the screen since the big announcement. What will happen to him both in the near term and the long-term?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think in both the near term and the long-term, he's really out of the picture. The body that now rules Egypt is the higher military council which issued its communique number one last night, which really should have been an indicator of where the situation was going. That in fact there was going to be some sort of military takeover.

Omar Suleiman is too closely associated with Hosni Mubarak. He was Hosni Mubarak's head of intelligence for many years, really his right hand man in running the country and probably he will go the way of Hosni Mubarak, really no longer playing a role. Now it's up to the military.

SPITZER: And let me just follow up on that, because when I looked at the constituency of the new military power that's in charge, they have gone back with Mubarak. Is the public looking at them a little bit askance as well? I think we may have lost Ben. Ben, can you hear us?

WEDEMAN: I can hear you now. Sorry, I can hear you. Yes, go ahead.

Yes, of course, as you mentioned, the defense minister who's a member of the higher military council was described in WikiLeaks as "Mubarak's poodle." But as a whole the army isn't quite as tainted as Omar Suleiman as the former president of Egypt.

Nonetheless, there will be elements within the Egyptian society, particularly among the protest movement which will want a more fundamental change, because what we heard from them is that they don't just want the head of state to go, they want the entire regime to be changed -- the police state, the dominance of the military in Egyptian society. That's what they will be pushing for.

But I suspect that a majority of Egyptians, satisfied that president Mubarak is no longer in power, will be satisfied simply with the changes that have occurred and the promise that some sort of progress will be made toward a real -- the creation of a real democratic system.

AJAMI: Ben, you have been doing such a great job. I just wanted to ask you a question, is there any gossip about where the house of Mubarak is? Is Mrs. Mubarak, are the sons still around? Have they left the country? Are there any rumors to that effect?

WEDEMAN: Well, actually we heard that somebody actually photographed the entire family carrying their bags out of the palace on to a helicopter. Now obviously not them carrying the bags, but having their bags being carried to the helicopter that took them to the airport that took them to Sharma el-Sheikh.

From there people believe they'll possibly go to German, less likely to Saudi Arabia, given that that is the resting place of Ben Ali of Tunisia. The suspicion is that Mubarak may in fact go to Germany for the medical treatment he does require.

RUBIN: Ben, it's Jamie Rubin, in the last two weeks of covering the people on the streets, we're always trying to figure out whether in the course of this civil disobedience, whether leaders emerged, whether individuals began to get real popularity with the crowd, because all of the other figures are somehow, if not tainted, they're seen through the eyes of the Mubarak regime.

For example, ElBaradei was useful because he was a Nobel Prize winner who Mubarak couldn't touch, but that's not a problem now. So are any of these young people, are any of these civil leadership that developed in the square really emerging individually?

WEDEMAN: Well, there was the case of Wael Ghonim, the Google executive who really helped organize the January 25th protests, and some people suggested he will the face, he be the representative of this youth movement. But he's made it quite clear that he has no political ambitions whatsoever, he's indicated that once everything settles down, he'd like to go back to his day job.

So really, as of yet, there are no individuals emerging from this movement. People like Mohamed ElBaradei, the other Egyptian Nobel winner for science, who some are suggesting might be able to play a role, but they were not adopted by the Tahrir Square group that they're seen in many cases as sort of piggybacking on to the movement itself.

So where this movement goes, if it goes anywhere at all will be the most interesting thing to come out of this revolution given that as you said, there's no ruler, there's no leader, nobody really is speaking on their behalf, or even acting on their behalf.

KATHLEEN PARKER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, Ben Wedeman, Fouad Ajami, Jamie Rubin, thanks very much for joining us. Thanks for your wonderful work over there, Ben.

SPITZER: Coming up in the streets of Cairo, celebration. On the streets of Tel Aviv, not so much. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SPITZER: Thirty years of Mubarak's rule brought 30 years of cold peace between Egypt and Israel. Tonight Israel is nervous.

PARKER: Joining us now for more on that is two people extremely tapped into the Middle East. Aaron David Miller was a Middle East negotiator and served six secretaries of states as a key adviser on the Arab-Israeli peace process. He joins us from Washington.

Bret Stephens is the foreign affairs columnist for "The Wall Street Journal." Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us. What's going on in Israel tonight? How are they watching these celebrations in Egypt?

BRET STEPHENS, FOREIGN AFFAIRS COLUMNIST, "WALL STREET JOURNAL": Nervously. The way the Israelis see it, there are three possible outcomes for it, Turkey one, Turkey two or Iran. Iran is the obvious case. This revolution is quickly hijacked by the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamist elements, and Egypt becomes an Islamist state virulently hostile to Israel. The Turkey two scenario is that you get a parliamentary government like the government in Turkey today, which is increasingly hostile to Israel, if not overtly so.

Turkey one is their best scenario. The military holds on to some reins of power, it takes responsibility for national security interest, but allows a parliamentary democracy to run domestic affairs.

SPITZER: Aaron, listening to what Bret said, which of those three paradigms is most likely to play out, and what do you think Israel is prepared for?

AARON DAVID MILLER: I can paint an even grimmer scenario than Bret's. The real question is what happens when the contract between the civil and military authorities begins to be renegotiated? When the political forces on the streets don't want the military to exercise the privileges and perks, the military doesn't pay taxes, it has tremendous privilege. It owns businesses, farms, industries.

What happens when these reformers, including the Muslim Brotherhood and others begin to want real governance?

So the question here, it seems to me is one of degree. The new Egypt is not going to renounce or abrogate the treaty, the new Egypt is not going to close the canal and the new Egypt is not going to return the $1.5 billion in military assistance that is part of the Camp David entitlement.

STEPHENS: Aaron is exactly right. The Brotherhood is the most organize and the most willful alternative political party. We should be extremely concerned about the Brotherhood and I have been to the headquarters of the Brotherhood in Cairo. It's very interesting, there's a large map on the wall and countries are color coded in various shades of green. The deeper green denoting the larger Muslim population and that's kind of their world view, and it is extremely telling.

So we need to be bending our efforts in the United States to work with moderates in the regime and there are those moderates and among the demonstrate forces in Tahrir Square to make sure they're able to organize politically in a way that resists the Brotherhood as currently the only other coherent pool of power in Egyptian politics.

SPITZER: Let me take this from a different perspective. Stasis is not an option. This was a 30-year mortgage, this thing had been paid off, it was done, Mubarak was old, he was going to die, his reign was finished. The question is what comes next.

When you look at the various possibilities, this is the best one out there. You have the military that's still there as the primary force in Egyptian society, respected by the public, but you also have democratization as we all know, Egypt is about the most anti-Semitic nation. If you had to chart a course away from a dictatorship, but is this the best you can do?

STEPHENS: I'm glad to see you're a neoconservative.

(LAUGHTER)

I don't want to worry my way out of the positive of what has happened, it is tremendous, it is potentially extraordinarily fruitful, we are lucky there was violence but there wasn't in Tahrir Square. We are lucky that Mubarak had the good sense to finally leave. We are lucky we have in the army a respected institution, and we may yet get lucky that the secular opposition in Tahrir Square will organize itself in a sensible way.

There are still a lot of imponderables there. We have got seven, eight months to go until the next election. So the clock begins ticking right now for American policymakers and Egyptians to start working with each other to figure out how you build on what you have achieved so far and have a genuine transition to democracy and not a regression to the old Jacobin mean.

SPITZER: I agree with virtually everything you said -

PARKER: Aaron, go ahead.

MILLER: Look, I'll go with Mark Twain on this -- history doesn't repeat. It rhymes. This is not France in 18th century, this is not Lenin, and it's not even Tehran. I didn't ride in on a bale of hay yesterday on this, but the situations really are different.

I don't believe the threat to Egyptian democracy right now comes from the Muslim Brotherhood. Yes, they have to be watched and no, they're not a genuinely or by definition democratic, and with all due respect to the DNI, secular group.

These are Muslims who played a long game and the long game is the influence in Egyptian policy from within to change the socioeconomic institutions of the state. Will the new Egyptian government be as acquiescent in Israel's strategy of containing Hamas? The answer is no. Is the new Egyptian government going to be any more eager to cooperate with us in our counterterrorism policy against Islamic radicals? The answer is no.

I the new Egyptian government prepared to implement a containment strategy as Hosni Mubarak was able to do? No. The reality, though, is we aren't going to have much of a choice. If the Muslim Brotherhood and the democratic processes in Egypt are worth their assault, what happens is life's going to break out, Egypt is going to have politics.

PARKER: Thank you both for joining us tonight.

SPITZER: Coming up, she accused President Hosni Mubarak of punking her yesterday. So what does she think today?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SPITZER: She told us she felt punked by Mubarak when she found out his speech did not include a resignation. After his abrupt departure today, we though, let's get her back and see what she has to say.

PARKER: She joins us from Cairo via Skype. Ethar, what a difference a day makes?

ETHAR EL-KATATNEY, CAIRO-BASED JOURNALIST: Yes, 180 degrees. It's kind of unbelievable to think that, you know, I'm looking at the papers today and you had just ten days ago, the leading government paper, their headline was "Millions turn out to support Mubarak," and today the headline reads, "The people have toppled the regime."

It's kind of a little surreal, I don't think it's really sunk in, Tahrir, that means "liberation," that Egyptians through their courage, through their nonviolence, we were actually able to do this. History has been made on my doorstep. And in the streets of Cairo today, I know you have all been covering it, absolutely the biggest celebration we have ever had or ever will have.

PARKER: Everybody's got to pack up and go home and face daily life again, and it's still up in the air what that's going to be like. How do you feel going into next week and how do you think things will unfold?

EL-KATATNEY: Definitely I think a lot of people today, they focused, very much today was a day of celebration, everybody focused on the fact that president Mubarak, ex-president Mubarak has finally gone. That's strange to say, but also that we're under military rule.

That's very worrying, because we had military rule that brought us Mubarak. So how is that actually going to turn out for us? You know, the military is going to establish control, they're going to suspend cabinet, but what role is the vice president going to play?

Egyptians have been very much chanting the slogan, "The army and the people of one hand, together." In the statements today, they said very much that the army would make sure that the promises that ex- President Mubarak said would be guaranteed. And they did say that there would be dates set for elections and constitutional reform.

But the army has promised that it will oversee all the constitutional reforms that will pave the way for free presidential elections with journal oversight.

SPITZER: We only have a minute left, but there needs to be a counter weight on the other side, somebody that will continue to stand up and be heard and be the voice of the revolution. Quickly, who do you think those voices might be who have emerged over the past couple of weeks to stand up and by the face of the revolution?

EL-KATATNEY: I think that's also something that is really up in the air. Everything's really up in the air right now, you have brotherhood, they're not really -- they have been given a lot more credit than actually is.

Our political system didn't really give people a chance to actually develop these kinds of skills. So we'll have to wait and see that. And that's also another worrying thing, since there's no one really qualified, it will be at least a year before Egyptians are actually able to have these elections.

So we'll just have to wait and see, it's all still very much -- as you just said in the beginning, one day can make all the difference. So we'll have to see.

SPITZER: Ethar, that's all we have time for tonight. Of course enjoy the celebration, congratulations on this unbelievable turn of historic events that we have been watching and you have been bringing to us every day.

PARKER: Thanks so much, Ethar, great talking to you.

Goodnight from New York. "Piers Morgan" starts right now.