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Paula Zahn Now

Zero Hour Nears For Presidential Debate

Aired September 30, 2004 - 20:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: We, of course, are at T-minus one hour and counting.
Welcome. Good evening, everybody. We're going to set the scene as of right now.

We are here inside the University of Miami's Convocation Center. And from where I am sitting, you can almost feel and touch the sense of tension and anticipation, behind me, the stage where George W. Bush and John Kerry will hold their first of three debates. Tonight, the war on terror, the war Iraq and homeland security. It may be the most important event of the 2004 campaign.

Senator Kerry will be at the podium on the left, President Bush at the one on the right. Jim Lehrer of PBS will moderate. It is Jim's 10th debate appearance. The audience is composed of one-third Democrats, one-third Republicans and special guests of the commission that organized the debates.

But the audience, of course, that really counts is you. And with just 33 days left and until the election, an estimated 50 million TV viewers may be tuning in tonight.

Well, both candidates kept pretty low profiles today. At one point, the president toured hurricane damage. The senator gave cameras a thumbs up. Both will attend post-debate rallies.

There, of course, are debate watching parties across the country. CNN's Bill Hemmer will be at Ohio State University with a focus group of some two dozen undecided voters. We will measure their reactions to the debates in real-time.

Tonight's 90-minute showdown is a clash of political ideologies, personalities and, of course, styles. But there are so many rules to follow that spontaneity may be the biggest loser.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RONALD REAGAN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The American people can still perform the services for the people.

ZAHN (voice-over): Rules, rules, rules. There are 32 pages of rules for tonight's debate. Each podium is 50 inches tall in front, 48 inches tall in back. And they're exactly 10 feet apart, no risers, no chairs, no stools, and no walking over to the other candidate. Remember Al Gore's stroll toward a startled George W. Bush four years ago? Not only do the debaters have to stay put. They can't bring along props or charts or make reference to specific individuals in the audience or ask direct questions to each other, although rhetorical questions are OK.

REAGAN: Are you better off than you were four years ago?

ZAHN: Would someone consider that a rhetorical question? And in memory of Richard Nixon's 5:00 shadow, each can bring his own makeup artist.

In memory of Gore's big sighs, TV cameras aren't supposed to take reaction shots. That would also avoid catching a candidate wondering when it will be over. But the TV networks say they're going to take those shots anyway. The Debate Commission promises to keep the hall at an appropriate temperature. No sweat. And notes can be taken on paper with either pens or pencils the pens or pencils are pre-cleared. Otherwise, they'll be confiscated, even from the president.

I presume that means no shining laser pointers in the other guy's eye while he's speaking.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: And welcome back.

I am pleased to be joined by senior White House correspondent John King, who covers the president, and senior political correspondent Candy Crowley who's been following the Kerry camp.

Good to see both of you.

You have been traveling with the Kerry camp for many, many months. What is it that he is most -- yes, you are exhausted, aren't? What is he most worried about?

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: You know, it has to be the intangible, which is, how does he come across?

There's almost no way you can authentically be something you're not. So there is this -- the sense that this is not just about facts. It is also about, how do they feel about this guy? How does he size up? They have already admitted that they're not as good as that as George Bush is, that he comes across very well. So it's a dilemma for someone like Kerry, who admits he's not naturally open and all that kind of stuff, and he has to somehow be appealing without trying to be appealing.

ZAHN: I think they're conceding the style points right up front and what they are trying to make their headway on are substance points.

CROWLEY: Well, they are conceding it, except for that you can't really concede.

(CROSSTALK) CROWLEY: OK, but you can't really say, OK, forget about all that.

What they're trying to do is just change the topic, which is to say, this is about facts. This is a serious candidate for serious times. So that's how they're confronting it. But, still, there is something intangible that happens in these debates.

ZAHN: So what is the president worried about tonight?

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: He's the incumbent president.

He walks into this hall. You just said this could be the most important night of this campaign. And Iraq is in chaos. That is his war. He made the decision to go to war. He has to defend it to the American people tonight, rebut Senator Kerry's arguments and do so in a way that is not only convincing, but that is not angry and that is somewhat optimistic, that, yes it may look like hell right now, but there is a brighter day. There is democracy ahead. It's a tough argument.

ZAHN: Do you expect him to have to defend a charge tonight that there is some possible political motivation to this major military offensive in Samarra tonight?

KING: Well, it is certainly possible he will get asked that question. If he is not asked it, it is certainly possible Senator Kerry could raise it rhetorically. And even if there had not been this offensive today, I think one of the more legitimate questions about the Iraqi policy is, why did they allow these havens to exist in the first place? Why didn't they immediately go after al-Sadr and go after some of these other places.

So, absolutely, that is one of the questions. Of course, the president's answer will be, no, that the decisions on the ground, just as the decisions about how many troops were needed, were made by the commanders. But that is a key point.

ZAHN: Let's talk about a debate that broke over a much more frivolous topic this morning that everybody thought was settled. And that is the fact that, when folks are watching this debate tonight, they are going to see a light go off when it gets close to the time that the candidate is out of time answering questions.

The Kerry camp wanted to get rid of that altogether. That backfired a little, didn't it? It's what they agreed to.

CROWLEY: It is what they agreed to.

And the Bush campaign has had some fun with it. But it's background noise. In the end, tomorrow morning, we won't be talking about that. But it was fun to talk about for the day.

ZAHN: Background noise or, as I've heard some Bush people tonight saying, incompetency of the Kerry campaign? (CROSSTALK)

KING: Yes, but the staff doesn't decide elections. The candidates do. And they're going to have 90 minutes tonight.

The Bush campaign is saying only Senator Kerry could be opposed to the lights after being for the lights. It's a joke. It's something for us to talk about now. The candidates will take it all away in a little way.

ZAHN: John, Candy, thanks for dropping by. Appreciate it.

As you can see in the lower part of your screen now, we're just about 53 minutes away from the start of the showdown.

When we come back, what you need to know about the candidates' positions. And, remember, while you are watching tonight, click on our Web site for a real-life blog of the debate, post-debate ratings on our pundit scorecard and much more. It's all there on CNN.com/AmericaVotes.

Our special edition of PAULA ZAHN NOW continues straight out of the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: And welcome back to the University of Miami, where President Bush and Senator Kerry will face off in their first debate less than an hour from now. The questions will focus on homeland security, terror, and, of course, Iraq.

It has been a remarkably violent day in Iraq. A short time ago, about 3,500 American and Iraqi forces began a major offensive against insurgents in Samarra, north of Baghdad.

Our own Jane Arraf is embedded with those soldiers and joins us live on the phone from Samarra.

Good evening, Jane.

JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: Good evening, Paula.

It's clear that this war is not over yet. We have rolled into the city with the 1st Infantry Division. We're in a Bradley. And in this sector alone, there has been fighting going on for the past couple of hours, rocket-propelled grenades being fired by insurgents, main guns from tanks being fired back, airstrikes, gunfire all around.

They are clearing the city sector by sector in what they say is a battle for Samarra, a major offensive to root out insurgents -- Paula.

ZAHN: Our Jane Arraf with the very latest on that American military offensive in Samarra, thank you.

Earlier today, more than 40 people were killed, scores wounded in car bombings in Baghdad; 34 of the dead were children. One American soldier was also killed, bringing this month's total of U.S. dead to 83. All that puts the debate here into much sharper focus.

Joining me now, Dan Senor, the former spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq. Also joining us, Richard Holbrooke in what is being called the spin room here at Miami University.

There he is. I don't know if he can hear me yet.

Mr. Ambassador, can you hear me?

RICHARD HOLBROOKE, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO UNITED NATIONS: I hear you, Paula.

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: OK. I've got all three of us hooked up now.

Mr. Senor, is it a coincidence that this major military offensive would be launched on this, the first presidential debate and, traditionally, the most watched of these television debates?

DAN SENOR, FORMER COALITION PROVISIONAL AUTHORITY SPOKESMAN: Oh, I don't think there's a connection. I know there's a number of factors that influence the timing of these military operations, not the least of which is consultations with Prime Minister Allawi and his government.

Iraqi forces are increasingly playing a role in operations across Iraq and we're, obviously, increasingly relying on Iraqi intelligence and political leadership. Our strategy now is to have Iraqi

(CROSSTALK)

SENOR: ... political leadership backed up by coalition military might.

And so I think those are the factors that influence the timing of this.

RICHARD HOLBROOKE, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO UNITED NATIONS: Ambassador Holbrooke, you just heard what Mr. Senor said. And if you did not, he essentially said this is a coincidence. This has been an attack that had to have been planned for sometime.

Do you think there's a political calculation here, that this attack would happen on this first night of the debates?

HOLBROOKE: No, of course not. I agree completely with whoever's been speaking. I can't hear you.

But how could anyone ever suggest that an offensive is politically timed? I don't see any connection and I don't think it's even an appropriate discussion point.

ZAHN: John Kerry has accused the president of living in a fantasy world of spin. There are a number of Republican senators, highly respected senators, out there saying, we are not winning; it is a mess in Iraq.

Do you concede that things in Iraq are worse today than they were a year ago?

SENOR: We had a tough day today. We're going to have more tough days. There have been tough days in the past.

I think you have to look at the macro trends, the undercurrents that are driving the situation in Iraq. Tough days, yes, but on course. We are in the process of building in the heart of that region. If you listen to the military commanders, the U.S. military commanders on the ground, and the Iraqi political leaders, they all say that we're making steady progress. There are still challenges, but we're making steady progress.

I think Senator Kerry should focus on telling us where he stands on this issue in Iraq. He's taken multiple positions over the last 10 months on where he stands on the Iraq issue; 30 days before -- 30-plus days before Election Day and he's asking the American people to make him commander in chief, and they still don't know where he stands on this fundamental issue.

ZAHN: Ambassador Holbrooke, let's review with our audience for a moment where these two candidates pretty much think the same way on the issue of Iraq.

They want to rebuild Iraq. They believe in the training of Iraqi forces to secure the country. They support U.S. forces in the field and the idea of getting them out as soon as possible. And they would both like to see more cooperation from our allies. What is the key difference that we will hear Senator Kerry spell out tonight when it comes to the issue of Iraq?

HOLBROOKE: Well, I don't agree with your premise, Paula.

There's a vast difference between the two candidates. President Bush has misled the American public. His predictions about what would happen in Iraq have been, without exception, inaccurate and wrong. He has no plan to end the war and there's no end in sight. And I would say this with great regret, because, like Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards, I supported giving President Bush the authority based on his assertions and the intelligence community's that there were weapons of mass destruction.

The question for the American public tonight in going forward is whether this administration deserves that four more years after the mess it's made in Iraq in a war which has exceeded in every way the worst possible predictions.

ZAHN: Ambassador, before you go any further, that was not my premise. There are a lot of people, serious scholars, looking at this issue that don't believe when it comes to four or five key points of the president's plan and John Kerry's plan that they're all that different.

HOLBROOKE: Both... ZAHN: And, unfortunately, I think we've lost the ambassador there for a moment.

Do you see a key difference in the two plans?

SENOR: Well, I think there's nothing that Senator Kerry has proposed that President Bush isn't already doing, whether it's beefing up Iraqi security forces, continuing to internationalize the effort, move forward on the path towards elections in January.

Those are all things that this administration has made a priority. The fact is, who is going to get rattled? We are concerned that the way Senator Kerry talks about Iraq whenever we have a bad day -- and there will be more of them -- whether or not this is a man who as president is going to get rattled, is going to cut and run, is going to panic in the situation and whose positions, because of his inconsistency, reflect a lack of seriousness and a lack of serious footing, not only in Iraq, but also in Afghanistan, which has elections in a few days, and this overall war on terrorism that we find ourselves in.

ZAHN: We're going to try to get Ambassador Holbrooke back here.

I don't know whether you were able to hear the last part of Mr. Senor's comments, basically suggesting that John Kerry is not serious, he said, about what to do in Iraq.

(CROSSTALK)

HOLBROOKE: Well, I hear you, and I heard him.

I think it's typically unfortunate that Dan Senor wishes to make an hominem criticism of the seriousness of John Kerry, who is an extremely serious man. Neither President Bush nor Senator Kerry intend or seek to cut and run or withdraw from Iraq. Senator Kerry has never accused Bush of doing that.

But the Bush campaign continually, continually misrepresents John Kerry's positions on Iraq. John Kerry has said very clearly what he will do. He said that he will train more effectively. He will get more allied support, which is clear, because he has more effective diplomatic skills than the president in this area, and that he would seek to find a way to reduce the American burden and bring our troops home.

President Bush may have said many of the same things, but the ironic fact is, John Kerry said them first. He got there first and it's Bush who's flip-flopped continually. It's Kerry who's been consistent. And the ad hominem criticism that Dan Senor just made of John Kerry is simply unfair, inappropriate and I'm afraid all too characteristic of a campaign which on their side has descended into name-calling.

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: All right, I can only give you 10 seconds to respond. Why is it that 37 percent, only 37 percent of the American people believe that the president has been honest with them about the conditions on the ground in Iraq?

SENOR: Look, I don't want to speak to polls. I'm not in the polling business.

But I can tell you one thing the American people know is that the president is consistent. When he says he's going to do something, he does it. He follows through. Senator Kerry has taken something like 11 or 12 positions on the war in Iraq.

And what Ambassador Holbrooke is talking about sounds very effective. How do we know that he's actually going to follow through on those things and not change his position, like he's changed every single one of them? The American people want reliability. They want someone who's not going to get rattled by the situation and who is going to remain consistent as we move forward.

ZAHN: Dan Senor, we've got to leave it there.

Ambassador Holbrooke, we apologize that you weren't able to hear all of that. Thank you for your patience.

There, of course, is no way to tell how tonight's battle of wits between the candidates will sway voters. Coming up next, an idea of how George Bush and John Kerry match up state by state, CNN's weekly look at the battle for electoral votes.

But, of course, not everyone's hard at work tonight. The debate watch party has just begun here on campus.

PRIME TIME POLITICS continues in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: Welcome back.

We're at the University of Miami, where President Bush and Senator Kerry will debate for the first time in just about 40 minutes or so.

If the election were held tonight, here's how the Electoral College map would look. Senator Kerry, ahead in 17 states and Washington, D.C., would win 237 electoral votes, while President Bush, with the lead in 33 states, would take 301 electoral votes. That's well over the 270 needed to win the election.

Now, our weekly snapshot of the Electoral College map is based on state polling, interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts.

And joining me now, "INSIDE POLITICS" host Judy Woodruff and regular contributor and "TIME" columnist Joe Klein.

Welcome. JOE KLEIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Hey, Paula.

ZAHN: So what do you make of those numbers? Not a big change from last week. What does it mean?

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Not any change at all, Paula. And, you know, what does that say?

It says, no. 1, there's a lot of people out there, they know this debate is coming and they're really holding off. You know, they're still looking, but they know the debate is going to be important. They're waiting.

The other thing it says is that the candidates haven't really said anything that different. There hasn't a dramatic something to happen to shake the campaign up.

But, Paula, underneath those numbers, some troubling signs for John Kerry, because in several states that we think of as reliably Democratic that Al Gore won in 2000, like Connecticut, New Jersey, Michigan, George Bush is doing very well. It is either even or he's nipping on Kerry's heels. So Kerry has got some headaches?

ZAHN: How does he turn that around, Joe Klein?

KLEIN: Well, if there's a peak moment in any presidential campaign, it is this one, the first presidential debate. He has to show well here tonight if he wants to win this thing.

ZAHN: Is there a set of Joe Klein's dos and don'ts tonight for Senator John Kerry?

KLEIN: Well, I just happen to have it right here.

ZAHN: I can count on the guy to come up with that.

KLEIN: I just happen to have it right here.

For Kerry, the things he has to do is, first of all, he has to be succinct, none of those winding-road run-on sentences.

ZAHN: There's a little light that is going to tell him when his time is up, Joe. He has no choice.

KLEIN: He has to be tough and really take it to the president. But, remember, he's debating the president of the United States, so he has to be respectful.

And third of all, he has to be spontaneous and show the public that there's a human being lurking somewhere underneath that politician. The things he can't do is, don't get caught up in policy details. You only have two minutes. Don't defend your past votes or your past quotes. Keep on pushing forward and keep the debate on the situation on the ground in Iraq and around the world now. And, also, don't say anything in French, because people are worried that you might seem aloof or out of touch. The Bush campaign's been jumping on this throughout.

ZAHN: It's interesting because the Kerry campaign people I talked with today are not underplaying expectations for him tonight. They think he's going to do a good job. They think he's going follow that Joe Klein list pretty well.

WOODRUFF: Well, they're feeling very confident, but they know that the onus is on him tonight. I mean, he is behind in the polls. They know he has got to step up.

And I would say he's got to be presidential. At the same time, he's got to be warm. He's got to connect with people. That's not such an easy task that he's got in front of him.

ZAHN: Well, let's move on to your list now for the president, the Joe Klein's dos and don'ts.

KLEIN: Well, he has an easier job. All he has to do is be himself, because the folks really like this guy. So that's No. 1.

The second is to be presidential. Don't get caught up in angry exchanges with John Kerry, because the whole world is watching, not just the American public.

And, third, he has to be realistic and acknowledge that there are some real serious problems in Iraq. Things aren't going well. If he isn't realistic, people are going to think that he's living in a fantasy land. The things that he can't be is, he can't be repetitive and keep on saying the same talking points over and over and over again. We've seen him do that in press conferences and interviews. He can't smirk and be arrogant, as he was in the primaries in 2000.

And, finally, he can't even hint at the possibility of a military draft or an increase in troops in Iraq.

ZAHN: Which is something that candidate Kerry might be talking about tonight.

WOODRUFF: Exactly.

ZAHN: He's been saying that openly on the campaign trail, even though the Pentagon says there is no such plan.

WOODRUFF: Well, one thing I would add is that these candidates have got to stop listening to pundits like us and do what they think is the right thing to do.

(CROSSTALK)

KLEIN: That's exactly right.

I mean, they have to understand that the American people know that this is a really serious issue, foreign policy in this year. And you can't mess around with it. You can't play games. You have to be strong and you have to be firm.

ZAHN: What do you think are the most obvious traps for both of these candidates?

WOODRUFF: Well, I think for Kerry it's exactly what Joe just outlined. It's don't -- it's don't go on too long. And we're going to have a light to help him in that regard.

But he really does have a tall order tonight. At the risk of being repetitive, he's got to be presidential. People have got to feel that he's decisive and he's got to be warm. That's a pretty tricky combination.

KLEIN: Well, if he tries too hard to be warm, he's going to look foolish. He's got to be himself.

It's really very simple. Kerry can't be too complicated. The president can't be too simple.

ZAHN: We'll look for both of those things tonight, or the absence of them, at least.

Judy Woodruff, Joe Klein, thanks.

KLEIN: Thank you.

ZAHN: See you a little bit later on tonight.

In the coming weeks, you're going to get a chance to tell us what you think about the candidates and their positions. I will be moderating live town hall meetings in four key battleground states, October 7 in Racine, Wisconsin, October 14 in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, October 21 in Clark County, Ohio, and then November 1, the night before the election, in the Orlando, Florida, area.

But tonight belongs to the candidates. And despite all the attempts to control the debate, the unexpected can always happen. They are a little more than a half-hour away from their debut at the University of Miami.

And, as the excitement builds, our special coverage continues right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: And now, with less than 30 minutes before the start of the presidential debate, that wraps it up for here and all of us at PRIME TIME POLITICS now.

Now it's time to turn it over to my colleague Wolf Blitzer.

WOLF BLITZER, HOST: Hi, Paula. Thanks very much.

We're here on campus of the University of Miami. Behind me, there are hundreds of college students. They're pumped, excited. They understand, history is about to be made here in Florida.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN's live coverage of the first presidential debate. BLITZER: Thanks very much for joining us. A pivotal night in this presidential campaign, perhaps a decisive moment. A key opportunity for the Democratic challenger, John Kerry, to break through, to try to establish himself as a formidable candidate in this race.

Jeff Greenfield, how -- how big a night is this specifically for John Kerry?

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: For all of the hype, and God knows there's been a ton of it, this is the most important night of John Kerry's presidential campaign.

He knows he's behind. He knows that 60 to 80 million people will be watching, and whether or not he can make that connection that he apparently has not yet made may be the pivotal point of the whole campaign.

It actually is one of those events that we're not over hyping.

BLITZER: Carlos, are we going too far in saying this could be make or break for John Kerry tonight?

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Not at all. You know, the president's had a great last six weeks. His approval numbers are up to 54 percent versus 49 percent.

BLITZER: Talking about the president.

WATSON: Talking about the president. So John Kerry knows, as Jeff said, that he's got to play catch up, and this may be the biggest audience he gets between now and November 2, maybe north of 60 million people watching tonight.

BLITZER: That's a huge audience. A lot of people, of course, most of that audience has already made up their minds. But those undecided voters are still critical. You're looking at specific questions, Jeff.

GREENFIELD: I am. There are four things that I think we ought to be looking at very hard tonight. And they are in no particular order.

First, can Kerry connect? Not just can he be personable, can he look like a regular guy? But can he make the case that the war in Iraq was a diversion from terrorism, that in fact we have been led astray and that he knows how to get us out.

The second question, can Bush reassure? And by that, I mean, not just can he tell people he's got an idea for a second term but can he acknowledge that things have not gone that well in Iraq and make the argument that, despite that, he is on course to make America safer.

Third, will there be any mistakes? And if so, will they matter? Historically, except for Gerry Ford, who prematurely liberated Eastern Europe, factual errors have not played a decisive role. But this year, there are literally thousands of bloggers out there, thousands of people in the campaign and out who are going to be watching every word to see if one of these candidates make a mistake and report on that in real time, something we haven't seen before.

And finally, how many persuadables are there? The Bush camp believes there are fewer than 10 percent, or less than 10 percent of the electorate has yet to make up its mind. The Kerry camp thinks it's more like 20 percent.

And the reason that's so important, Wolf and Carlos, is if you've made up your mind, it's much harder to change it. So the fewer people there are out there watching to see who they're going to vote for, the less impact this debate will be.

And if you're behind in the polls, as apparently Senator Kerry is, he wants a lot of undecideds, a lot of persuadables out there so that he has a chance to make his case.

BLITZER: Carlos, what are you going to be looking for specifically?

WATSON: Well, we're looking for a couple things, particularly those things involving style. I think this could end up being the most aggressive, the most personal debate we've seen in a long time. Arguably the most aggressive debate since 1980, although some said that 2000 was quite aggressive.

The other thing I think is going to be interesting is who was good, not just in asserting a point but actually raising a rhetorical question or offering a really compelling anecdote. I think the ability to use those two tools, I think, is going to be critical in who comes out first tonight.

BLITZER: The whole notion of winning a debate like this, it's not necessarily something that is like a boxing match.

GREENFIELD: It's not, and for all of the sports metaphors or the classic debate notions where you score on points, this isn't scored on points.

This is scored on who the electorate looks at and says, well, they know that Bush is commander in chief. Is he the commander in chief I want for four more years?

And is this other guy, who as Carlos has said, has been battered pretty badly for the last six weeks. Is this a guy that maybe I've had the wrong idea about? Maybe he can sit in that Oval Office and make the tough decisions.

And it's an overall sense. Some of it's substance; some of it's style; some of it's just a kind of feel that people get.

And the other important thing to note is it's 24-48 hours before these opinions and the press commentary and the factual mistakes, if there are any, get hammered home that people really decide who won the debate and whether or not this campaign takes a turn.

BLITZER: But four years ago, a lot of people thought Al Gore won that first debate. But two or three days later, it all changed.

WATSON: And this time around, the spin game is only going to be more intense, Wolf. We'll hear from a variety of people, not only those who are spinning journalists, but you'll begin ads right away the very next day that try to influence where we end up on Sunday when the Sunday local papers come out in key swing states.

BLITZER: All right. Let's -- let's bring in Ken Mehlman. He's joining us now. Ken Mehlman, the Bush/Cheney campaign manager.

Ken, thanks very much for joining us.

KEN MEHLMAN, BUSH/CHENEY CAMPAIGN MANAGER: What do you do? How do you explain -- the president tonight, how does he explain that the situation in Iraq is improving, that they're moving closer to stability and democracy on a day like today, when dozens of children were killed?

MEHLMAN: Well, obviously, the president feels terrible about, as all Americans do, what happened in Iraq today. And there are going to be many hard days ahead. The president has said that from the beginning.

The question, Wolf, that the American people are going to be answering tonight or asking tonight is whether George W. Bush or John Kerry is the kind of commander in chief they need to deal with hard problems, to deal with these tough situations, to deal with these terrorists. And that's the key question that the president is going to be answering.

He's very comfortable with who he is. He's very comfortable with his plan. And he'll be talking to the American people about what we need to do to make sure we win the battle in Iraq so that we're safer here at home.

BLITZER: He's already said that there were miscalculations during -- in the aftermath of the actual major combat operations. And those miscalculations have resulted now in, what, more than 1,000 American troops dead and some several thousand, 6,000, 7,000, 8,000 seriously injured.

How does the president explain those miscalculations?

MEHLMAN: Well, I think what the president has said from the beginning is war is very hard. It's very hard to plan for. Some things that you think are going to happen don't happen. Other things happen that you didn't expect.

And what you need is a commander in chief that stays focused on the goal, which is victory, but is willing to be flexible and adapt in terms of the tactics. And that's what you have with President Bush.

With Senator Kerry, what has been so troubling for so many Americans for so long is that he seems to be flexible about the goal, and it's flexibility based on the politics, not what's happening on the ground.

So when he's winning the nomination, he uses the Iraq war as a reason that you should support him because he was in favor of the war. And now he's saying "Elect me as president, because I was against the Iraq war."

Politics should not be the Bible on our national security.

BLITZER: Do -- Ken Mehlman, do you believe, and you're speaking for the Bush/Cheney campaign right now, do you believe that John Kerry is qualified to be commander in chief?

MEHLMAN: I absolutely believe that's an important question the American people have to answer. No one's ever questioned his qualifications.

The question is simply this: is he the right kind of person? Does he have the right kind of leadership skills? Does he have the commitment? Does he have the focus? Is he willing to stay the course necessary to win the war on terror?

The American people have to answer that question and after about six weeks of watching both candidates, more and more Americans are answering no, they don't want him as the commander in chief because of the fact that they think they need someone who's committed to victory, not vacillation for political gain.

BLITZER: Ken Mehlman from the Bush/Cheney campaign, thanks for joining us.

Let's bring in a senior adviser to the Kerry campaign. That TmiThahat would be Mike McCurry, the former press secretary, press secretary during the Clinton administration.

Mike McCurry, thanks for joining us.

Can your candidate, John Kerry, tonight, answer an important question within two minutes?

MIKE MCCURRY, SENIOR ADVISER, KERRY CAMPAIGN: He has to, because that's the format for the debate. So the answer is yes.

And by the way, I'd like to say what Ken Mehlman just said, he's got all the right questions. Those are, indeed, the questions that the American voter is going to have on their mind tonight.

Which of these two candidates has a better plan for addressing the situation in Iraq? And which one is really going to bring our troops home after getting the business done we need to do there? And who's going to do the best job of fighting the war on terror, which Senator Kerry argues is where we should have had our focus all along, on Osama bin Laden, not necessarily Saddam Hussein?

BLITZER: Well, why did he vote for that resolution authorizing the use of force in Iraq if he felt like that, given the fact that there were other Democrats, including Senator Bob Graham of Florida, who thought it would be a diversion from the war on terror and as a result he voted against the authorization?

MCCURRY: OK. Wolf, I'm having a little trouble hearing you because your fan club is so boisterous there.

But listen, he voted for that resolution because the president of the United States, and we know that -- those of us who worked at the White House know this well -- the president needs to have that arrow in his quiver. He needs the threat of force to help rally other nations to an international coalition, do the kind of planning to get the work done to make very clear what the consequences of use of force will be and what the aftermath of use of force will be.

That's where President Bush failed us, because he rushed right into war without using that authority effectively to do the work that we needed to do in Iraq to disarm Saddam. And now we know probably if we found out he had not had WMDs, we probably could have done that far easier and with far loss -- far less loss of life than we have now suffered.

BLITZER: Mike McCurry will be joining us after the debate, as well. Mike, thanks very much from the spin room.

The spin room being where all of the supporters, the surrogates of both campaigns, they will congregate in the minutes at the end of this debate, 90-minute debate. And they'll try to spin. They'll try to say their candidate was simply great.

Much more coming up. Less than 20 minutes to the debate. We're here at the University of Miami. Students behind us. They're watching history, as are you. Stay with us.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Nineteen-sixty marked the first presidential debate between major party candidates. But appearance not substance the event memorable. Polls would show later that television viewers favored the more relaxed, bright-eyed Kennedy over the nervous, shadowy Nixon whose makeup didn't cover his whiskers.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: A 90-minute face-off. That's what we're standing by for. Less than 15 minutes, only about 15 minutes from now, John Kerry and George W. Bush will face off here on the campus of the University of Miami.

Let's bring in two of our reporters to talk a little bit about the expectations game. Our senior White House correspondent, John King, is standing by. Our senior political correspondent, Candy Crowley.

Candy, let's begin with you.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the expectations here, obviously, are very high on the Kerry side. They say, "Look, we expect he will do very well."

What they don't like about the expectations game is the notion they say that's out there that John Kerry has to score really big here or it's all over.

The -- what you're hearing is the program here had begun. We're hearing from various people from the debate commission and from the university here. So that's why you're hearing this in the background.

But in the end, what the Kerry campaign doesn't want out there the idea that somehow if George Bush does very well tonight, that the election is over. And that's what worries them most, and that's what they're pushing hardest about.

BLITZER: All right, Candy. We'll, of course, get back to you. John King is standing by, as well. John, give us your thoughts.

JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, the Bush campaign looks at it this way. Like the Kerry camp, they do not think this is the be all, end all tonight, this one debate.

But they do think this, the focus obviously is foreign policy and homeland security. The president comes in with a pretty good edge when voters are asked, "Who do you trust best to handle Iraq?" And they have an even bigger edge when voters are asked, "Who do you trust to lead the war on terrorism?

From the Bush campaign standpoint, if he can lead this debate and we look at the polls two or three days from now and he continues to have those same edges or bigger edges, then they may not have locked up this race but they think they'll have made this hill so much steeper for Senator Kerry to come up.

Bush campaign aides come in with some momentum. They think it is critical tonight that the president explain in detail his decisions for going to war and his Iraq policy. And they think if he comes out of this debate with that edge on Iraq and that edge in the war on terrorism and the continued edge we see in some of the key battleground states it's not over, but much tougher for Senator Kerry. They believe this is a defining night.

BLITZER: A defining night. I think everybody agrees potentially. This certainly could be a defining night. Historians will be writing about this for many years to come.

John and Candy, we'll get back to you.

Our Bill Hemmer is standing by right now from the University of Miami. Let's go to Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio.

Bill, tell our viewers what you are doing. You've assembled a couple of dozen of undecided voters. BILL HEMMER, CO-HOST, "AMERICAN MORNING": We certainly have. Ohio State University. We are in Columbus, Ohio, Wolf, tonight perhaps right in the middle of the hottest battleground state in this election for 2004.

We have 22 people, undecided voters, gathered here tonight. They are men and they are women. They are young and they are old. They are students and they are teachers. They are truck drivers and they are small business owners. All saying tonight they are undecided at this point between Bush and John Kerry.

This is what we will try to do, Wolf, over the course of this 90- minute debate. My friend Carol over here. Each one in our audience Wolf has this device. Numbers from 1 through 10, 10 being the strongest positive reaction; one being the strongest negative reaction; five being neutral. No change at all.

Carol thanks for that. But over the course of 90 minutes, Wolf, we'll be able to gauge their reaction to the questions, to the answers, to the reactions that they are getting now, seeing and hearing here in Columbus, Ohio.

Now through the folks at Edison Research, and also on our web site, CNN.com, and our financial news network, CNNfn in real time, we'll be able to gauge their reactions to see how they are feeling about the answers they are getting in Miami, Florida, tonight.

They are undecided. Perhaps they will not stay that way at about 10:30 Eastern Time. Never been done this way before at CNN, Wolf, by the way. A bit of an experiment for us tonight here in Ohio. Not quite sure what we're going to get.

But at 10:30 p.m. tonight, Wolf, we should have a better idea. So we'll see you in about 90 minutes from now here in Columbus.

Back to you now in Miami.

BLITZER: Fascinating, indeed. Our viewers will be fascinated, no doubt. We'll be watching very closely. Bill Hemmer, we'll get back to you.

For our viewers who are really interested in politics and want answers to a whole range of questions, go to CNN.com. Incredible amount of information on this presidential race, the history, the current status, CNN.com. That's the place you want to be for politics.

We'll take a quick break. When we come back, Judy Woodruff is standing by. This is a very, very complicated debate. All sorts of rules have been worked out, 32 pages negotiated. Judy Woodruff will join us to explain what we're about to see.

Stay with us.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) ANNOUNCER: Nineteen-seventy-six, the first debate between President Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter has delayed for over 20 minutes because of a technical problem.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A pool of broadcasters in Philadelphia have temporarily lost the audio. It is not a conspiracy against Governor Carter or President Ford, and they will fix it as soon as possible.

ANNOUNCER: During the silence, the two candidates just stood at their podiums like two fire plugs, not sure what to do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Eight minutes to go, maybe less, before the start of this debate here at the University of Miami.

The students behind us are all excited. I'm sure there's a lot of anticipation, excitement around the country and indeed around the world, people watching on CNN and CNN international.

Judy Woodruff is over there at the debate site.

Judy, the negotiations that went into the format of this 90- minute face-off were very, very intricate. Explain the highlights to our viewers.

JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": I will, Wolf, but first I want to tell you something interesting going on here in the hall.

Jim Lehrer, who is the moderator, PBS, has just told the audience that if they make any noise of any kind during this debate, he is going to turn around and reprimand them. He said I'm going to hold you up to public ridicule, and he's appointed Mrs. Bush and Teresa Heinz Kerry to monitor each side of the hall.

And he said, "And I will take this time out of your candidate's time in the debate."

But back to the rules. They are very strict, Wolf. They're 32 pages. We've heard all that. Essentially, Jim Lehrer is going to ask a candidate a question. The first question determined by coin toss, two minutes to answer that question. The other candidate gets a minute and a half to respond.

And then at the moderator's discretion, he can extend the discussion another 60 seconds and then it's on to the next question.

It sounds tight, Wolf, but there is some flexibility in there for Jim Lehrer to pursue a subject. We all have to assume, for example, on Iraq we're going to hear more than one question about that.

BLITZER: All right, Judy. This is an interesting format, indeed. Highly scripted. We'll see how they fare tonight.

Judy will be with us, of course, throughout.

Let's bring in our CNN "CROSSFIRE" co-hosts, Paul Begala, Bob Novak. They're watching this with all of us.

Paul, you've been involved intimately over the years in briefing and preparing Democratic presidential candidates for these kinds of debates. What goes through the process?

PAULA BEGALA, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Well, it's not a real debate. It's like dove hunting. You know, I'm from Texas, we do a lot of dove hunting there. This is why I think Bush is good at it. You have a packet of shells, a box of shells on your hip and you pull one out and it says Iraq, you load it and you wait and you fire. And then the other guy has his and he fires.

There's very -- there's no, pardon the pun, crossfire at all. So it's actually really easy. If either of these guys makes a mistake, I'm not going to be very charitable toward them, because this is an easy format for the politicians. That's why they negotiated it.

BLITZER: The negotiations, Bob Novak, were very, very specific. The Bush people only wanted two debates. They wound up with three, but they got basically the terms in exchange that they wanted.

BOB NOVAK, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": I think they were willing to settle for three from the beginning. I think that was a Jimmy Baker negotiating ploy. I think they got exactly what they want. They're very happy. And they believe that having the foreign policy debate first is good, too.

I think this is a -- I'm not a hunter, but I watch a lot of baseball, and I think I'll give a baseball analogy. I think that George W. Bush can play little ball. He can hit singles. He can move base to base.

But -- but John Kerry has to do something big. He has to hit some extra base hits. I think there's a tremendous burden on him tonight, and all the pressure is on Kerry.

BLITZER: We'll be watching together with you. And with Paul Begala.

We'll take another quick break. What, four minutes and counting before this debate actually begins. We'll be right back from the University of Miami.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: This is it. Only a minute or so remaining before Jim Lehrer will introduce the candidates and 90 minutes of uninterrupted question and answer session will begin.

Jeff Greenfield, last minute things you're going to be looking for?

GREENFIELD: Who controls the room? I've always thought that's the most important part of any of these debates. Who's -- who's back and confident and controlling the pace.

And for John Kerry, does that mean crisp answers that actually don't take up the full time so they don't see those lights?

For George Bush, is it the calm commander-in-chief who, more in sorrow than in anger, keeps saying to John Kerry, in effect, there you go again with these inconsistencies.

Who takes the room is the key to this debate.

BLITZER: Carlos, what are you going to be looking for at this last minute?

WATSON: Three quick things. No. 1, can John Kerry once and for all reject the label of flip-flopper and maybe can he did it with humor? You remember Ronald Reagan used humor well in 1980.

No. 2, will there be a serious debate over the question of preemption and preemptive use of force?

And last but not least, in this era of reality television, will someone break the rules? Will somebody ignore the 32-page memorandum and have a moment where he says, "I want to ask you a real question, not a rhetorical question"?

BLITZER: And Jeff, as much as the pressure is on these two candidates, a lot of pressure on Jim Lehrer, of PBS, "The Newshour With Jim Lehrer," the moderator. He's done this nine previous times.

GREENFIELD: Yeah, I actually think he's probably the coolest guy on that stage, first because he's done it more than any of the other two guys, and second of all, whatever he does, nobody gets to vote against him.

BLITZER: What do you think the key thing that he has to avoid doing, Jim Lehrer, at this stage, in order to stop the criticism of him?

WATSON: Probably ask more pointed questions. There's been criticism, and you certainly heard it in '96, not as much in 2000, that he hasn't been as pointed. You probably won't see him do what our Bernie Shaw did in 1998 and really tee up a pretty hard-hitting question. But I think the more pointed the questions are, not only on policy, but on character, I think that could be interesting to watch.

BLITZER: And first impressions will be very important for both of these candidates tonight.

GREENFIELD: Absolutely. Because we do read a lot into that demeanor evidence, as they call it. I also expect to hear questions that are going to be very tough for both candidates. Iran and North Korea, moving towards nuclear weapons, what would you do about it? That's about as unanswerable a question as I can think of. I'd be very surprised if Jim Lehrer doesn't throw it at both of them tonight.

BLITZER: And there's no doubt that this is also going to be a night, guys, when there will be real substance on major foreign policy issues, North Korea, Iran, Middle East. Let's go to the Convocation Center right now. Here's Jim Lehrer.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired September 30, 2004 - 20:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: We, of course, are at T-minus one hour and counting.
Welcome. Good evening, everybody. We're going to set the scene as of right now.

We are here inside the University of Miami's Convocation Center. And from where I am sitting, you can almost feel and touch the sense of tension and anticipation, behind me, the stage where George W. Bush and John Kerry will hold their first of three debates. Tonight, the war on terror, the war Iraq and homeland security. It may be the most important event of the 2004 campaign.

Senator Kerry will be at the podium on the left, President Bush at the one on the right. Jim Lehrer of PBS will moderate. It is Jim's 10th debate appearance. The audience is composed of one-third Democrats, one-third Republicans and special guests of the commission that organized the debates.

But the audience, of course, that really counts is you. And with just 33 days left and until the election, an estimated 50 million TV viewers may be tuning in tonight.

Well, both candidates kept pretty low profiles today. At one point, the president toured hurricane damage. The senator gave cameras a thumbs up. Both will attend post-debate rallies.

There, of course, are debate watching parties across the country. CNN's Bill Hemmer will be at Ohio State University with a focus group of some two dozen undecided voters. We will measure their reactions to the debates in real-time.

Tonight's 90-minute showdown is a clash of political ideologies, personalities and, of course, styles. But there are so many rules to follow that spontaneity may be the biggest loser.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RONALD REAGAN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The American people can still perform the services for the people.

ZAHN (voice-over): Rules, rules, rules. There are 32 pages of rules for tonight's debate. Each podium is 50 inches tall in front, 48 inches tall in back. And they're exactly 10 feet apart, no risers, no chairs, no stools, and no walking over to the other candidate. Remember Al Gore's stroll toward a startled George W. Bush four years ago? Not only do the debaters have to stay put. They can't bring along props or charts or make reference to specific individuals in the audience or ask direct questions to each other, although rhetorical questions are OK.

REAGAN: Are you better off than you were four years ago?

ZAHN: Would someone consider that a rhetorical question? And in memory of Richard Nixon's 5:00 shadow, each can bring his own makeup artist.

In memory of Gore's big sighs, TV cameras aren't supposed to take reaction shots. That would also avoid catching a candidate wondering when it will be over. But the TV networks say they're going to take those shots anyway. The Debate Commission promises to keep the hall at an appropriate temperature. No sweat. And notes can be taken on paper with either pens or pencils the pens or pencils are pre-cleared. Otherwise, they'll be confiscated, even from the president.

I presume that means no shining laser pointers in the other guy's eye while he's speaking.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: And welcome back.

I am pleased to be joined by senior White House correspondent John King, who covers the president, and senior political correspondent Candy Crowley who's been following the Kerry camp.

Good to see both of you.

You have been traveling with the Kerry camp for many, many months. What is it that he is most -- yes, you are exhausted, aren't? What is he most worried about?

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: You know, it has to be the intangible, which is, how does he come across?

There's almost no way you can authentically be something you're not. So there is this -- the sense that this is not just about facts. It is also about, how do they feel about this guy? How does he size up? They have already admitted that they're not as good as that as George Bush is, that he comes across very well. So it's a dilemma for someone like Kerry, who admits he's not naturally open and all that kind of stuff, and he has to somehow be appealing without trying to be appealing.

ZAHN: I think they're conceding the style points right up front and what they are trying to make their headway on are substance points.

CROWLEY: Well, they are conceding it, except for that you can't really concede.

(CROSSTALK) CROWLEY: OK, but you can't really say, OK, forget about all that.

What they're trying to do is just change the topic, which is to say, this is about facts. This is a serious candidate for serious times. So that's how they're confronting it. But, still, there is something intangible that happens in these debates.

ZAHN: So what is the president worried about tonight?

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: He's the incumbent president.

He walks into this hall. You just said this could be the most important night of this campaign. And Iraq is in chaos. That is his war. He made the decision to go to war. He has to defend it to the American people tonight, rebut Senator Kerry's arguments and do so in a way that is not only convincing, but that is not angry and that is somewhat optimistic, that, yes it may look like hell right now, but there is a brighter day. There is democracy ahead. It's a tough argument.

ZAHN: Do you expect him to have to defend a charge tonight that there is some possible political motivation to this major military offensive in Samarra tonight?

KING: Well, it is certainly possible he will get asked that question. If he is not asked it, it is certainly possible Senator Kerry could raise it rhetorically. And even if there had not been this offensive today, I think one of the more legitimate questions about the Iraqi policy is, why did they allow these havens to exist in the first place? Why didn't they immediately go after al-Sadr and go after some of these other places.

So, absolutely, that is one of the questions. Of course, the president's answer will be, no, that the decisions on the ground, just as the decisions about how many troops were needed, were made by the commanders. But that is a key point.

ZAHN: Let's talk about a debate that broke over a much more frivolous topic this morning that everybody thought was settled. And that is the fact that, when folks are watching this debate tonight, they are going to see a light go off when it gets close to the time that the candidate is out of time answering questions.

The Kerry camp wanted to get rid of that altogether. That backfired a little, didn't it? It's what they agreed to.

CROWLEY: It is what they agreed to.

And the Bush campaign has had some fun with it. But it's background noise. In the end, tomorrow morning, we won't be talking about that. But it was fun to talk about for the day.

ZAHN: Background noise or, as I've heard some Bush people tonight saying, incompetency of the Kerry campaign? (CROSSTALK)

KING: Yes, but the staff doesn't decide elections. The candidates do. And they're going to have 90 minutes tonight.

The Bush campaign is saying only Senator Kerry could be opposed to the lights after being for the lights. It's a joke. It's something for us to talk about now. The candidates will take it all away in a little way.

ZAHN: John, Candy, thanks for dropping by. Appreciate it.

As you can see in the lower part of your screen now, we're just about 53 minutes away from the start of the showdown.

When we come back, what you need to know about the candidates' positions. And, remember, while you are watching tonight, click on our Web site for a real-life blog of the debate, post-debate ratings on our pundit scorecard and much more. It's all there on CNN.com/AmericaVotes.

Our special edition of PAULA ZAHN NOW continues straight out of the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: And welcome back to the University of Miami, where President Bush and Senator Kerry will face off in their first debate less than an hour from now. The questions will focus on homeland security, terror, and, of course, Iraq.

It has been a remarkably violent day in Iraq. A short time ago, about 3,500 American and Iraqi forces began a major offensive against insurgents in Samarra, north of Baghdad.

Our own Jane Arraf is embedded with those soldiers and joins us live on the phone from Samarra.

Good evening, Jane.

JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: Good evening, Paula.

It's clear that this war is not over yet. We have rolled into the city with the 1st Infantry Division. We're in a Bradley. And in this sector alone, there has been fighting going on for the past couple of hours, rocket-propelled grenades being fired by insurgents, main guns from tanks being fired back, airstrikes, gunfire all around.

They are clearing the city sector by sector in what they say is a battle for Samarra, a major offensive to root out insurgents -- Paula.

ZAHN: Our Jane Arraf with the very latest on that American military offensive in Samarra, thank you.

Earlier today, more than 40 people were killed, scores wounded in car bombings in Baghdad; 34 of the dead were children. One American soldier was also killed, bringing this month's total of U.S. dead to 83. All that puts the debate here into much sharper focus.

Joining me now, Dan Senor, the former spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq. Also joining us, Richard Holbrooke in what is being called the spin room here at Miami University.

There he is. I don't know if he can hear me yet.

Mr. Ambassador, can you hear me?

RICHARD HOLBROOKE, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO UNITED NATIONS: I hear you, Paula.

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: OK. I've got all three of us hooked up now.

Mr. Senor, is it a coincidence that this major military offensive would be launched on this, the first presidential debate and, traditionally, the most watched of these television debates?

DAN SENOR, FORMER COALITION PROVISIONAL AUTHORITY SPOKESMAN: Oh, I don't think there's a connection. I know there's a number of factors that influence the timing of these military operations, not the least of which is consultations with Prime Minister Allawi and his government.

Iraqi forces are increasingly playing a role in operations across Iraq and we're, obviously, increasingly relying on Iraqi intelligence and political leadership. Our strategy now is to have Iraqi

(CROSSTALK)

SENOR: ... political leadership backed up by coalition military might.

And so I think those are the factors that influence the timing of this.

RICHARD HOLBROOKE, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO UNITED NATIONS: Ambassador Holbrooke, you just heard what Mr. Senor said. And if you did not, he essentially said this is a coincidence. This has been an attack that had to have been planned for sometime.

Do you think there's a political calculation here, that this attack would happen on this first night of the debates?

HOLBROOKE: No, of course not. I agree completely with whoever's been speaking. I can't hear you.

But how could anyone ever suggest that an offensive is politically timed? I don't see any connection and I don't think it's even an appropriate discussion point.

ZAHN: John Kerry has accused the president of living in a fantasy world of spin. There are a number of Republican senators, highly respected senators, out there saying, we are not winning; it is a mess in Iraq.

Do you concede that things in Iraq are worse today than they were a year ago?

SENOR: We had a tough day today. We're going to have more tough days. There have been tough days in the past.

I think you have to look at the macro trends, the undercurrents that are driving the situation in Iraq. Tough days, yes, but on course. We are in the process of building in the heart of that region. If you listen to the military commanders, the U.S. military commanders on the ground, and the Iraqi political leaders, they all say that we're making steady progress. There are still challenges, but we're making steady progress.

I think Senator Kerry should focus on telling us where he stands on this issue in Iraq. He's taken multiple positions over the last 10 months on where he stands on the Iraq issue; 30 days before -- 30-plus days before Election Day and he's asking the American people to make him commander in chief, and they still don't know where he stands on this fundamental issue.

ZAHN: Ambassador Holbrooke, let's review with our audience for a moment where these two candidates pretty much think the same way on the issue of Iraq.

They want to rebuild Iraq. They believe in the training of Iraqi forces to secure the country. They support U.S. forces in the field and the idea of getting them out as soon as possible. And they would both like to see more cooperation from our allies. What is the key difference that we will hear Senator Kerry spell out tonight when it comes to the issue of Iraq?

HOLBROOKE: Well, I don't agree with your premise, Paula.

There's a vast difference between the two candidates. President Bush has misled the American public. His predictions about what would happen in Iraq have been, without exception, inaccurate and wrong. He has no plan to end the war and there's no end in sight. And I would say this with great regret, because, like Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards, I supported giving President Bush the authority based on his assertions and the intelligence community's that there were weapons of mass destruction.

The question for the American public tonight in going forward is whether this administration deserves that four more years after the mess it's made in Iraq in a war which has exceeded in every way the worst possible predictions.

ZAHN: Ambassador, before you go any further, that was not my premise. There are a lot of people, serious scholars, looking at this issue that don't believe when it comes to four or five key points of the president's plan and John Kerry's plan that they're all that different.

HOLBROOKE: Both... ZAHN: And, unfortunately, I think we've lost the ambassador there for a moment.

Do you see a key difference in the two plans?

SENOR: Well, I think there's nothing that Senator Kerry has proposed that President Bush isn't already doing, whether it's beefing up Iraqi security forces, continuing to internationalize the effort, move forward on the path towards elections in January.

Those are all things that this administration has made a priority. The fact is, who is going to get rattled? We are concerned that the way Senator Kerry talks about Iraq whenever we have a bad day -- and there will be more of them -- whether or not this is a man who as president is going to get rattled, is going to cut and run, is going to panic in the situation and whose positions, because of his inconsistency, reflect a lack of seriousness and a lack of serious footing, not only in Iraq, but also in Afghanistan, which has elections in a few days, and this overall war on terrorism that we find ourselves in.

ZAHN: We're going to try to get Ambassador Holbrooke back here.

I don't know whether you were able to hear the last part of Mr. Senor's comments, basically suggesting that John Kerry is not serious, he said, about what to do in Iraq.

(CROSSTALK)

HOLBROOKE: Well, I hear you, and I heard him.

I think it's typically unfortunate that Dan Senor wishes to make an hominem criticism of the seriousness of John Kerry, who is an extremely serious man. Neither President Bush nor Senator Kerry intend or seek to cut and run or withdraw from Iraq. Senator Kerry has never accused Bush of doing that.

But the Bush campaign continually, continually misrepresents John Kerry's positions on Iraq. John Kerry has said very clearly what he will do. He said that he will train more effectively. He will get more allied support, which is clear, because he has more effective diplomatic skills than the president in this area, and that he would seek to find a way to reduce the American burden and bring our troops home.

President Bush may have said many of the same things, but the ironic fact is, John Kerry said them first. He got there first and it's Bush who's flip-flopped continually. It's Kerry who's been consistent. And the ad hominem criticism that Dan Senor just made of John Kerry is simply unfair, inappropriate and I'm afraid all too characteristic of a campaign which on their side has descended into name-calling.

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: All right, I can only give you 10 seconds to respond. Why is it that 37 percent, only 37 percent of the American people believe that the president has been honest with them about the conditions on the ground in Iraq?

SENOR: Look, I don't want to speak to polls. I'm not in the polling business.

But I can tell you one thing the American people know is that the president is consistent. When he says he's going to do something, he does it. He follows through. Senator Kerry has taken something like 11 or 12 positions on the war in Iraq.

And what Ambassador Holbrooke is talking about sounds very effective. How do we know that he's actually going to follow through on those things and not change his position, like he's changed every single one of them? The American people want reliability. They want someone who's not going to get rattled by the situation and who is going to remain consistent as we move forward.

ZAHN: Dan Senor, we've got to leave it there.

Ambassador Holbrooke, we apologize that you weren't able to hear all of that. Thank you for your patience.

There, of course, is no way to tell how tonight's battle of wits between the candidates will sway voters. Coming up next, an idea of how George Bush and John Kerry match up state by state, CNN's weekly look at the battle for electoral votes.

But, of course, not everyone's hard at work tonight. The debate watch party has just begun here on campus.

PRIME TIME POLITICS continues in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: Welcome back.

We're at the University of Miami, where President Bush and Senator Kerry will debate for the first time in just about 40 minutes or so.

If the election were held tonight, here's how the Electoral College map would look. Senator Kerry, ahead in 17 states and Washington, D.C., would win 237 electoral votes, while President Bush, with the lead in 33 states, would take 301 electoral votes. That's well over the 270 needed to win the election.

Now, our weekly snapshot of the Electoral College map is based on state polling, interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts.

And joining me now, "INSIDE POLITICS" host Judy Woodruff and regular contributor and "TIME" columnist Joe Klein.

Welcome. JOE KLEIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Hey, Paula.

ZAHN: So what do you make of those numbers? Not a big change from last week. What does it mean?

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Not any change at all, Paula. And, you know, what does that say?

It says, no. 1, there's a lot of people out there, they know this debate is coming and they're really holding off. You know, they're still looking, but they know the debate is going to be important. They're waiting.

The other thing it says is that the candidates haven't really said anything that different. There hasn't a dramatic something to happen to shake the campaign up.

But, Paula, underneath those numbers, some troubling signs for John Kerry, because in several states that we think of as reliably Democratic that Al Gore won in 2000, like Connecticut, New Jersey, Michigan, George Bush is doing very well. It is either even or he's nipping on Kerry's heels. So Kerry has got some headaches?

ZAHN: How does he turn that around, Joe Klein?

KLEIN: Well, if there's a peak moment in any presidential campaign, it is this one, the first presidential debate. He has to show well here tonight if he wants to win this thing.

ZAHN: Is there a set of Joe Klein's dos and don'ts tonight for Senator John Kerry?

KLEIN: Well, I just happen to have it right here.

ZAHN: I can count on the guy to come up with that.

KLEIN: I just happen to have it right here.

For Kerry, the things he has to do is, first of all, he has to be succinct, none of those winding-road run-on sentences.

ZAHN: There's a little light that is going to tell him when his time is up, Joe. He has no choice.

KLEIN: He has to be tough and really take it to the president. But, remember, he's debating the president of the United States, so he has to be respectful.

And third of all, he has to be spontaneous and show the public that there's a human being lurking somewhere underneath that politician. The things he can't do is, don't get caught up in policy details. You only have two minutes. Don't defend your past votes or your past quotes. Keep on pushing forward and keep the debate on the situation on the ground in Iraq and around the world now. And, also, don't say anything in French, because people are worried that you might seem aloof or out of touch. The Bush campaign's been jumping on this throughout.

ZAHN: It's interesting because the Kerry campaign people I talked with today are not underplaying expectations for him tonight. They think he's going to do a good job. They think he's going follow that Joe Klein list pretty well.

WOODRUFF: Well, they're feeling very confident, but they know that the onus is on him tonight. I mean, he is behind in the polls. They know he has got to step up.

And I would say he's got to be presidential. At the same time, he's got to be warm. He's got to connect with people. That's not such an easy task that he's got in front of him.

ZAHN: Well, let's move on to your list now for the president, the Joe Klein's dos and don'ts.

KLEIN: Well, he has an easier job. All he has to do is be himself, because the folks really like this guy. So that's No. 1.

The second is to be presidential. Don't get caught up in angry exchanges with John Kerry, because the whole world is watching, not just the American public.

And, third, he has to be realistic and acknowledge that there are some real serious problems in Iraq. Things aren't going well. If he isn't realistic, people are going to think that he's living in a fantasy land. The things that he can't be is, he can't be repetitive and keep on saying the same talking points over and over and over again. We've seen him do that in press conferences and interviews. He can't smirk and be arrogant, as he was in the primaries in 2000.

And, finally, he can't even hint at the possibility of a military draft or an increase in troops in Iraq.

ZAHN: Which is something that candidate Kerry might be talking about tonight.

WOODRUFF: Exactly.

ZAHN: He's been saying that openly on the campaign trail, even though the Pentagon says there is no such plan.

WOODRUFF: Well, one thing I would add is that these candidates have got to stop listening to pundits like us and do what they think is the right thing to do.

(CROSSTALK)

KLEIN: That's exactly right.

I mean, they have to understand that the American people know that this is a really serious issue, foreign policy in this year. And you can't mess around with it. You can't play games. You have to be strong and you have to be firm.

ZAHN: What do you think are the most obvious traps for both of these candidates?

WOODRUFF: Well, I think for Kerry it's exactly what Joe just outlined. It's don't -- it's don't go on too long. And we're going to have a light to help him in that regard.

But he really does have a tall order tonight. At the risk of being repetitive, he's got to be presidential. People have got to feel that he's decisive and he's got to be warm. That's a pretty tricky combination.

KLEIN: Well, if he tries too hard to be warm, he's going to look foolish. He's got to be himself.

It's really very simple. Kerry can't be too complicated. The president can't be too simple.

ZAHN: We'll look for both of those things tonight, or the absence of them, at least.

Judy Woodruff, Joe Klein, thanks.

KLEIN: Thank you.

ZAHN: See you a little bit later on tonight.

In the coming weeks, you're going to get a chance to tell us what you think about the candidates and their positions. I will be moderating live town hall meetings in four key battleground states, October 7 in Racine, Wisconsin, October 14 in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, October 21 in Clark County, Ohio, and then November 1, the night before the election, in the Orlando, Florida, area.

But tonight belongs to the candidates. And despite all the attempts to control the debate, the unexpected can always happen. They are a little more than a half-hour away from their debut at the University of Miami.

And, as the excitement builds, our special coverage continues right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: And now, with less than 30 minutes before the start of the presidential debate, that wraps it up for here and all of us at PRIME TIME POLITICS now.

Now it's time to turn it over to my colleague Wolf Blitzer.

WOLF BLITZER, HOST: Hi, Paula. Thanks very much.

We're here on campus of the University of Miami. Behind me, there are hundreds of college students. They're pumped, excited. They understand, history is about to be made here in Florida.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN's live coverage of the first presidential debate. BLITZER: Thanks very much for joining us. A pivotal night in this presidential campaign, perhaps a decisive moment. A key opportunity for the Democratic challenger, John Kerry, to break through, to try to establish himself as a formidable candidate in this race.

Jeff Greenfield, how -- how big a night is this specifically for John Kerry?

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: For all of the hype, and God knows there's been a ton of it, this is the most important night of John Kerry's presidential campaign.

He knows he's behind. He knows that 60 to 80 million people will be watching, and whether or not he can make that connection that he apparently has not yet made may be the pivotal point of the whole campaign.

It actually is one of those events that we're not over hyping.

BLITZER: Carlos, are we going too far in saying this could be make or break for John Kerry tonight?

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Not at all. You know, the president's had a great last six weeks. His approval numbers are up to 54 percent versus 49 percent.

BLITZER: Talking about the president.

WATSON: Talking about the president. So John Kerry knows, as Jeff said, that he's got to play catch up, and this may be the biggest audience he gets between now and November 2, maybe north of 60 million people watching tonight.

BLITZER: That's a huge audience. A lot of people, of course, most of that audience has already made up their minds. But those undecided voters are still critical. You're looking at specific questions, Jeff.

GREENFIELD: I am. There are four things that I think we ought to be looking at very hard tonight. And they are in no particular order.

First, can Kerry connect? Not just can he be personable, can he look like a regular guy? But can he make the case that the war in Iraq was a diversion from terrorism, that in fact we have been led astray and that he knows how to get us out.

The second question, can Bush reassure? And by that, I mean, not just can he tell people he's got an idea for a second term but can he acknowledge that things have not gone that well in Iraq and make the argument that, despite that, he is on course to make America safer.

Third, will there be any mistakes? And if so, will they matter? Historically, except for Gerry Ford, who prematurely liberated Eastern Europe, factual errors have not played a decisive role. But this year, there are literally thousands of bloggers out there, thousands of people in the campaign and out who are going to be watching every word to see if one of these candidates make a mistake and report on that in real time, something we haven't seen before.

And finally, how many persuadables are there? The Bush camp believes there are fewer than 10 percent, or less than 10 percent of the electorate has yet to make up its mind. The Kerry camp thinks it's more like 20 percent.

And the reason that's so important, Wolf and Carlos, is if you've made up your mind, it's much harder to change it. So the fewer people there are out there watching to see who they're going to vote for, the less impact this debate will be.

And if you're behind in the polls, as apparently Senator Kerry is, he wants a lot of undecideds, a lot of persuadables out there so that he has a chance to make his case.

BLITZER: Carlos, what are you going to be looking for specifically?

WATSON: Well, we're looking for a couple things, particularly those things involving style. I think this could end up being the most aggressive, the most personal debate we've seen in a long time. Arguably the most aggressive debate since 1980, although some said that 2000 was quite aggressive.

The other thing I think is going to be interesting is who was good, not just in asserting a point but actually raising a rhetorical question or offering a really compelling anecdote. I think the ability to use those two tools, I think, is going to be critical in who comes out first tonight.

BLITZER: The whole notion of winning a debate like this, it's not necessarily something that is like a boxing match.

GREENFIELD: It's not, and for all of the sports metaphors or the classic debate notions where you score on points, this isn't scored on points.

This is scored on who the electorate looks at and says, well, they know that Bush is commander in chief. Is he the commander in chief I want for four more years?

And is this other guy, who as Carlos has said, has been battered pretty badly for the last six weeks. Is this a guy that maybe I've had the wrong idea about? Maybe he can sit in that Oval Office and make the tough decisions.

And it's an overall sense. Some of it's substance; some of it's style; some of it's just a kind of feel that people get.

And the other important thing to note is it's 24-48 hours before these opinions and the press commentary and the factual mistakes, if there are any, get hammered home that people really decide who won the debate and whether or not this campaign takes a turn.

BLITZER: But four years ago, a lot of people thought Al Gore won that first debate. But two or three days later, it all changed.

WATSON: And this time around, the spin game is only going to be more intense, Wolf. We'll hear from a variety of people, not only those who are spinning journalists, but you'll begin ads right away the very next day that try to influence where we end up on Sunday when the Sunday local papers come out in key swing states.

BLITZER: All right. Let's -- let's bring in Ken Mehlman. He's joining us now. Ken Mehlman, the Bush/Cheney campaign manager.

Ken, thanks very much for joining us.

KEN MEHLMAN, BUSH/CHENEY CAMPAIGN MANAGER: What do you do? How do you explain -- the president tonight, how does he explain that the situation in Iraq is improving, that they're moving closer to stability and democracy on a day like today, when dozens of children were killed?

MEHLMAN: Well, obviously, the president feels terrible about, as all Americans do, what happened in Iraq today. And there are going to be many hard days ahead. The president has said that from the beginning.

The question, Wolf, that the American people are going to be answering tonight or asking tonight is whether George W. Bush or John Kerry is the kind of commander in chief they need to deal with hard problems, to deal with these tough situations, to deal with these terrorists. And that's the key question that the president is going to be answering.

He's very comfortable with who he is. He's very comfortable with his plan. And he'll be talking to the American people about what we need to do to make sure we win the battle in Iraq so that we're safer here at home.

BLITZER: He's already said that there were miscalculations during -- in the aftermath of the actual major combat operations. And those miscalculations have resulted now in, what, more than 1,000 American troops dead and some several thousand, 6,000, 7,000, 8,000 seriously injured.

How does the president explain those miscalculations?

MEHLMAN: Well, I think what the president has said from the beginning is war is very hard. It's very hard to plan for. Some things that you think are going to happen don't happen. Other things happen that you didn't expect.

And what you need is a commander in chief that stays focused on the goal, which is victory, but is willing to be flexible and adapt in terms of the tactics. And that's what you have with President Bush.

With Senator Kerry, what has been so troubling for so many Americans for so long is that he seems to be flexible about the goal, and it's flexibility based on the politics, not what's happening on the ground.

So when he's winning the nomination, he uses the Iraq war as a reason that you should support him because he was in favor of the war. And now he's saying "Elect me as president, because I was against the Iraq war."

Politics should not be the Bible on our national security.

BLITZER: Do -- Ken Mehlman, do you believe, and you're speaking for the Bush/Cheney campaign right now, do you believe that John Kerry is qualified to be commander in chief?

MEHLMAN: I absolutely believe that's an important question the American people have to answer. No one's ever questioned his qualifications.

The question is simply this: is he the right kind of person? Does he have the right kind of leadership skills? Does he have the commitment? Does he have the focus? Is he willing to stay the course necessary to win the war on terror?

The American people have to answer that question and after about six weeks of watching both candidates, more and more Americans are answering no, they don't want him as the commander in chief because of the fact that they think they need someone who's committed to victory, not vacillation for political gain.

BLITZER: Ken Mehlman from the Bush/Cheney campaign, thanks for joining us.

Let's bring in a senior adviser to the Kerry campaign. That TmiThahat would be Mike McCurry, the former press secretary, press secretary during the Clinton administration.

Mike McCurry, thanks for joining us.

Can your candidate, John Kerry, tonight, answer an important question within two minutes?

MIKE MCCURRY, SENIOR ADVISER, KERRY CAMPAIGN: He has to, because that's the format for the debate. So the answer is yes.

And by the way, I'd like to say what Ken Mehlman just said, he's got all the right questions. Those are, indeed, the questions that the American voter is going to have on their mind tonight.

Which of these two candidates has a better plan for addressing the situation in Iraq? And which one is really going to bring our troops home after getting the business done we need to do there? And who's going to do the best job of fighting the war on terror, which Senator Kerry argues is where we should have had our focus all along, on Osama bin Laden, not necessarily Saddam Hussein?

BLITZER: Well, why did he vote for that resolution authorizing the use of force in Iraq if he felt like that, given the fact that there were other Democrats, including Senator Bob Graham of Florida, who thought it would be a diversion from the war on terror and as a result he voted against the authorization?

MCCURRY: OK. Wolf, I'm having a little trouble hearing you because your fan club is so boisterous there.

But listen, he voted for that resolution because the president of the United States, and we know that -- those of us who worked at the White House know this well -- the president needs to have that arrow in his quiver. He needs the threat of force to help rally other nations to an international coalition, do the kind of planning to get the work done to make very clear what the consequences of use of force will be and what the aftermath of use of force will be.

That's where President Bush failed us, because he rushed right into war without using that authority effectively to do the work that we needed to do in Iraq to disarm Saddam. And now we know probably if we found out he had not had WMDs, we probably could have done that far easier and with far loss -- far less loss of life than we have now suffered.

BLITZER: Mike McCurry will be joining us after the debate, as well. Mike, thanks very much from the spin room.

The spin room being where all of the supporters, the surrogates of both campaigns, they will congregate in the minutes at the end of this debate, 90-minute debate. And they'll try to spin. They'll try to say their candidate was simply great.

Much more coming up. Less than 20 minutes to the debate. We're here at the University of Miami. Students behind us. They're watching history, as are you. Stay with us.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Nineteen-sixty marked the first presidential debate between major party candidates. But appearance not substance the event memorable. Polls would show later that television viewers favored the more relaxed, bright-eyed Kennedy over the nervous, shadowy Nixon whose makeup didn't cover his whiskers.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: A 90-minute face-off. That's what we're standing by for. Less than 15 minutes, only about 15 minutes from now, John Kerry and George W. Bush will face off here on the campus of the University of Miami.

Let's bring in two of our reporters to talk a little bit about the expectations game. Our senior White House correspondent, John King, is standing by. Our senior political correspondent, Candy Crowley.

Candy, let's begin with you.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the expectations here, obviously, are very high on the Kerry side. They say, "Look, we expect he will do very well."

What they don't like about the expectations game is the notion they say that's out there that John Kerry has to score really big here or it's all over.

The -- what you're hearing is the program here had begun. We're hearing from various people from the debate commission and from the university here. So that's why you're hearing this in the background.

But in the end, what the Kerry campaign doesn't want out there the idea that somehow if George Bush does very well tonight, that the election is over. And that's what worries them most, and that's what they're pushing hardest about.

BLITZER: All right, Candy. We'll, of course, get back to you. John King is standing by, as well. John, give us your thoughts.

JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, the Bush campaign looks at it this way. Like the Kerry camp, they do not think this is the be all, end all tonight, this one debate.

But they do think this, the focus obviously is foreign policy and homeland security. The president comes in with a pretty good edge when voters are asked, "Who do you trust best to handle Iraq?" And they have an even bigger edge when voters are asked, "Who do you trust to lead the war on terrorism?

From the Bush campaign standpoint, if he can lead this debate and we look at the polls two or three days from now and he continues to have those same edges or bigger edges, then they may not have locked up this race but they think they'll have made this hill so much steeper for Senator Kerry to come up.

Bush campaign aides come in with some momentum. They think it is critical tonight that the president explain in detail his decisions for going to war and his Iraq policy. And they think if he comes out of this debate with that edge on Iraq and that edge in the war on terrorism and the continued edge we see in some of the key battleground states it's not over, but much tougher for Senator Kerry. They believe this is a defining night.

BLITZER: A defining night. I think everybody agrees potentially. This certainly could be a defining night. Historians will be writing about this for many years to come.

John and Candy, we'll get back to you.

Our Bill Hemmer is standing by right now from the University of Miami. Let's go to Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio.

Bill, tell our viewers what you are doing. You've assembled a couple of dozen of undecided voters. BILL HEMMER, CO-HOST, "AMERICAN MORNING": We certainly have. Ohio State University. We are in Columbus, Ohio, Wolf, tonight perhaps right in the middle of the hottest battleground state in this election for 2004.

We have 22 people, undecided voters, gathered here tonight. They are men and they are women. They are young and they are old. They are students and they are teachers. They are truck drivers and they are small business owners. All saying tonight they are undecided at this point between Bush and John Kerry.

This is what we will try to do, Wolf, over the course of this 90- minute debate. My friend Carol over here. Each one in our audience Wolf has this device. Numbers from 1 through 10, 10 being the strongest positive reaction; one being the strongest negative reaction; five being neutral. No change at all.

Carol thanks for that. But over the course of 90 minutes, Wolf, we'll be able to gauge their reaction to the questions, to the answers, to the reactions that they are getting now, seeing and hearing here in Columbus, Ohio.

Now through the folks at Edison Research, and also on our web site, CNN.com, and our financial news network, CNNfn in real time, we'll be able to gauge their reactions to see how they are feeling about the answers they are getting in Miami, Florida, tonight.

They are undecided. Perhaps they will not stay that way at about 10:30 Eastern Time. Never been done this way before at CNN, Wolf, by the way. A bit of an experiment for us tonight here in Ohio. Not quite sure what we're going to get.

But at 10:30 p.m. tonight, Wolf, we should have a better idea. So we'll see you in about 90 minutes from now here in Columbus.

Back to you now in Miami.

BLITZER: Fascinating, indeed. Our viewers will be fascinated, no doubt. We'll be watching very closely. Bill Hemmer, we'll get back to you.

For our viewers who are really interested in politics and want answers to a whole range of questions, go to CNN.com. Incredible amount of information on this presidential race, the history, the current status, CNN.com. That's the place you want to be for politics.

We'll take a quick break. When we come back, Judy Woodruff is standing by. This is a very, very complicated debate. All sorts of rules have been worked out, 32 pages negotiated. Judy Woodruff will join us to explain what we're about to see.

Stay with us.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) ANNOUNCER: Nineteen-seventy-six, the first debate between President Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter has delayed for over 20 minutes because of a technical problem.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A pool of broadcasters in Philadelphia have temporarily lost the audio. It is not a conspiracy against Governor Carter or President Ford, and they will fix it as soon as possible.

ANNOUNCER: During the silence, the two candidates just stood at their podiums like two fire plugs, not sure what to do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Eight minutes to go, maybe less, before the start of this debate here at the University of Miami.

The students behind us are all excited. I'm sure there's a lot of anticipation, excitement around the country and indeed around the world, people watching on CNN and CNN international.

Judy Woodruff is over there at the debate site.

Judy, the negotiations that went into the format of this 90- minute face-off were very, very intricate. Explain the highlights to our viewers.

JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": I will, Wolf, but first I want to tell you something interesting going on here in the hall.

Jim Lehrer, who is the moderator, PBS, has just told the audience that if they make any noise of any kind during this debate, he is going to turn around and reprimand them. He said I'm going to hold you up to public ridicule, and he's appointed Mrs. Bush and Teresa Heinz Kerry to monitor each side of the hall.

And he said, "And I will take this time out of your candidate's time in the debate."

But back to the rules. They are very strict, Wolf. They're 32 pages. We've heard all that. Essentially, Jim Lehrer is going to ask a candidate a question. The first question determined by coin toss, two minutes to answer that question. The other candidate gets a minute and a half to respond.

And then at the moderator's discretion, he can extend the discussion another 60 seconds and then it's on to the next question.

It sounds tight, Wolf, but there is some flexibility in there for Jim Lehrer to pursue a subject. We all have to assume, for example, on Iraq we're going to hear more than one question about that.

BLITZER: All right, Judy. This is an interesting format, indeed. Highly scripted. We'll see how they fare tonight.

Judy will be with us, of course, throughout.

Let's bring in our CNN "CROSSFIRE" co-hosts, Paul Begala, Bob Novak. They're watching this with all of us.

Paul, you've been involved intimately over the years in briefing and preparing Democratic presidential candidates for these kinds of debates. What goes through the process?

PAULA BEGALA, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Well, it's not a real debate. It's like dove hunting. You know, I'm from Texas, we do a lot of dove hunting there. This is why I think Bush is good at it. You have a packet of shells, a box of shells on your hip and you pull one out and it says Iraq, you load it and you wait and you fire. And then the other guy has his and he fires.

There's very -- there's no, pardon the pun, crossfire at all. So it's actually really easy. If either of these guys makes a mistake, I'm not going to be very charitable toward them, because this is an easy format for the politicians. That's why they negotiated it.

BLITZER: The negotiations, Bob Novak, were very, very specific. The Bush people only wanted two debates. They wound up with three, but they got basically the terms in exchange that they wanted.

BOB NOVAK, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": I think they were willing to settle for three from the beginning. I think that was a Jimmy Baker negotiating ploy. I think they got exactly what they want. They're very happy. And they believe that having the foreign policy debate first is good, too.

I think this is a -- I'm not a hunter, but I watch a lot of baseball, and I think I'll give a baseball analogy. I think that George W. Bush can play little ball. He can hit singles. He can move base to base.

But -- but John Kerry has to do something big. He has to hit some extra base hits. I think there's a tremendous burden on him tonight, and all the pressure is on Kerry.

BLITZER: We'll be watching together with you. And with Paul Begala.

We'll take another quick break. What, four minutes and counting before this debate actually begins. We'll be right back from the University of Miami.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: This is it. Only a minute or so remaining before Jim Lehrer will introduce the candidates and 90 minutes of uninterrupted question and answer session will begin.

Jeff Greenfield, last minute things you're going to be looking for?

GREENFIELD: Who controls the room? I've always thought that's the most important part of any of these debates. Who's -- who's back and confident and controlling the pace.

And for John Kerry, does that mean crisp answers that actually don't take up the full time so they don't see those lights?

For George Bush, is it the calm commander-in-chief who, more in sorrow than in anger, keeps saying to John Kerry, in effect, there you go again with these inconsistencies.

Who takes the room is the key to this debate.

BLITZER: Carlos, what are you going to be looking for at this last minute?

WATSON: Three quick things. No. 1, can John Kerry once and for all reject the label of flip-flopper and maybe can he did it with humor? You remember Ronald Reagan used humor well in 1980.

No. 2, will there be a serious debate over the question of preemption and preemptive use of force?

And last but not least, in this era of reality television, will someone break the rules? Will somebody ignore the 32-page memorandum and have a moment where he says, "I want to ask you a real question, not a rhetorical question"?

BLITZER: And Jeff, as much as the pressure is on these two candidates, a lot of pressure on Jim Lehrer, of PBS, "The Newshour With Jim Lehrer," the moderator. He's done this nine previous times.

GREENFIELD: Yeah, I actually think he's probably the coolest guy on that stage, first because he's done it more than any of the other two guys, and second of all, whatever he does, nobody gets to vote against him.

BLITZER: What do you think the key thing that he has to avoid doing, Jim Lehrer, at this stage, in order to stop the criticism of him?

WATSON: Probably ask more pointed questions. There's been criticism, and you certainly heard it in '96, not as much in 2000, that he hasn't been as pointed. You probably won't see him do what our Bernie Shaw did in 1998 and really tee up a pretty hard-hitting question. But I think the more pointed the questions are, not only on policy, but on character, I think that could be interesting to watch.

BLITZER: And first impressions will be very important for both of these candidates tonight.

GREENFIELD: Absolutely. Because we do read a lot into that demeanor evidence, as they call it. I also expect to hear questions that are going to be very tough for both candidates. Iran and North Korea, moving towards nuclear weapons, what would you do about it? That's about as unanswerable a question as I can think of. I'd be very surprised if Jim Lehrer doesn't throw it at both of them tonight.

BLITZER: And there's no doubt that this is also going to be a night, guys, when there will be real substance on major foreign policy issues, North Korea, Iran, Middle East. Let's go to the Convocation Center right now. Here's Jim Lehrer.

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