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Paula Zahn Now
President Bush Hosts Pakistani and Afghan Presidents; Bloodshed Escalates in Iraq; Terrell Owens Denies Suicide Attempt
Aired September 27, 2006 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening, everybody. Glad to have you with us tonight.
Our "Top Story" is the developing story happening right now at the White House, where, just moments ago, President Bush and the leaders of Afghanistan and Pakistan appeared briefly before the cameras, then headed off for a private dinner inside the White House.
The three of them are right now on the other side of that window in the old family dining room. That's as close as we can get. Just imagine that dinner table conversation going on tonight -- President Bush trying to play referee to Presidents Hamid Karzai and Pervez Musharraf, who blame each other for harboring terrorists on the border they share.
And Karzai and Musharraf may well very have choice words for President Bush as well about the war in Iraq.
Wolf, I know that you were with -- there you are. I see you now. I want you to stand by, because you have some insight on that, having interviewed both men just this week.
Also joining me tonight in the studio is Anderson Cooper, who has reported extensively from the region.
But, first, let's go back to White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux, who has been on the story all day long. And she is now going to give us an idea of what could be going on around that dinner table tonight -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Paula, if you just took a look at the body language, it really spoke volumes -- those two leaders, very stiff, very distant, President Bush in the middle. He shook each leader's hand, but they did not shake each other's hands.
And President Bush was quite blunt about what was ahead in this dinner, talking about the need to strategize, to cooperate. He said, point blank, we have a lot of challenges ahead. And he also said, what he was going to try to do is figure out a way for the United States to help these two countries provide a foundation for hope.
And these two leaders essentially are looking for help from the United States. President Bush and U.S. officials say he will try to reassure them that he will bolster both of their regimes and their governments, so they can try to work together. And, Paula, the stakes are very high with this meeting -- President Bush's legacy on the line, his -- his freedom agenda, but, also, of course, in a very practical way. He needs these two leaders to cooperate, to go after Osama bin Laden, to go after al Qaeda, and, ultimately, to prove to Americans and to the world that what he did in Afghanistan and, ultimately, in Iraq, this freedom agenda, is, in fact, working -- Paula.
ZAHN: But, Suzanne, given what you have just said, we have seen both of these leaders, Presidents Musharraf and Karzai, trade some really terse barbs at each other.
What kind of cooperation can President Bush really forge, given the tenseness of this relationship?
MALVEAUX: Well, despite the fact that President Bush has lost a lot of credibility -- it's diminished around the world -- he -- he still does have some leverage with these two leaders.
Essentially, the United States has been talking with Pakistan about this deal to provide F-16s to help the Pakistani government. And, on the other side, the Afghan government, has practically been begging the President Bush for more money, for more international help. So, he can certainly use that as somewhat of a carrot as well.
So, he does have some leverage with both of these leaders to get them to cooperate and to bring them back to the table.
But, Paula, you bring up a very good point. This really is just the beginning, a starting point for these two leaders to sit in the same room, and perhaps talk to one another. But they -- they don't think that there are going to be any agreements that are going to come out of this -- this dinner tonight.
ZAHN: And, Wolf, once again, we keep on focusing on this same picture tonight, because it's really quite powerful, when you see President Musharraf stand there expressionless, President Karzai not even looking at him, President Bush standing in the middle.
We have seen them sniping at each other all week. And nowhere was that more apparent than in the interviews you did with both of those presidents this week. You're not surprised by what we saw tonight?
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: I -- I sort of am, though, Paula.
I thought, at a minimum, we would see a handshake, some sort of gesture to indicate that President Bush was succeeding in breaking the ice, the animosity, between these two leaders. That did not happen. So, to that, I was surprised, although the -- the feud between Karzai and Musharraf has been building for weeks and weeks and weeks, and it sort of exploded over the past couple days.
Listen to this exchange I had earlier today with President Karzai.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE, "THE SITUATION ROOM")
BLITZER: Yesterday at this time I spoke with President Musharraf and as you probably know, he had some rather unkind words to say about you.
HAMID KARZAI, PRESIDENT OF AFGHANISTAN: Mmm-hmm.
BLITZER: For example, I want to play this excerpt from the interview we did yesterday.
KARZAI: Mmm-hmm.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PRESIDENT OF PAKISTAN: He is not oblivious. He knows everything, but he is purposely denying -- turning a blind eye, like an ostrich. He doesn't want to tell the world what is the facts for his own personal reasons. This is what I think.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: All right. He says you're turning a blind eye, like an ostrich, because you don't want to confront the facts of what is happening in your country, in Afghanistan. Your response?
KARZAI: Yes.
He is right to say that I know the facts. I indeed know the facts. But I also know a lot of facts in Pakistan. And that's why I am pleading, with President Musharraf that, for the sake of security for all of us and for our allies, it is extremely important to pay serious attention and take action against some of the places called madrassas that are not madrassas, but are training extremists full of hatred for the rest of the world.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: And -- and, Paula, one thing I think we should be on the lookout for, let's see if there's an unscheduled appearance by the three leaders after their dinner tonight to at least reassure a very nervous American public, a very nervous world, that these two critical allies might be on the same page, before they leave Washington.
ZAHN: So, maybe a handshake, but certainly no hugs at the -- the end of this dinner, Wolf.
Anderson, you have traveled extensively in the region. And -- and the charge is, at least on President Karzai's part -- and I think he told you this in an interview -- that he really thinks President Musharraf wants to destabilize Afghanistan.
What do the folks you have talked there have to say about that, the -- the folks on the ground militarily, and -- and the...
ANDERSON COOPER, HOST, "ANDERSON COOPER 360": It -- it...
ZAHN: ... Afghani public?
COOPER: It's a wide belief among the Afghan people that -- that Pakistan wants a destabilized Afghanistan for their own political purposes.
U.S. intelligence officials that I have talked to, off the record, and -- and military officials I have talked to extensively throughout the region are all pretty dismayed about this -- this peace deal, the cease-fire deal that President Musharraf has signed with Taliban militants in his own country.
President Musharraf says, look, this is a -- a plus for the war on terror. They -- they have agreed to stop cross-border incursions. U.S. military says, that -- that just -- that's just not going to happen.
In fact, they're already saying that they have seen an increase in cross-border incursions, in the number of attacks in the -- in Eastern Afghanistan against U.S. forces by Taliban militants and by their supporters.
So, Hamid Karzai certainly argues that same point as well. And -- and, on this case, U.S. military officials back him up. They say Karzai is right on this one.
ZAHN: A lot of territory to cover, and we can only wonder how this complicates the president's job as he's trying to create cooperation.
Wolf...
COOPER: It's a fascinating dinner, to be a fly on the wall for that one.
ZAHN: Yes. We have tried to get that camera closer.
(LAUGHTER)
ZAHN: But that's the farthest we could get -- or the closest we could get, three feet away from that window.
Wolf, Suzanne, Anderson, again, thank you.
And, of course, Anderson is going to have much more on this critical meeting tonight on his own show, "A.C. 360," at 10:00 p.m.
It's clear that leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan don't trust each other. Not so obvious is whether the U.S. can really trust either one of them.
Senior national correspondent John Roberts has been looking into that today. And he joins me now -- John.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Paula.
It's a part of the world where leaders have to make some pretty tough deals to survive. And, sometimes, those deals might not be in the best interests of the United States or other nations of the world, for that matter.
Afghanistan and Pakistan are two of the most critical countries in the war on terror. But are they really friend or foe?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS (voice-over): President Bush calls them friends, Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai, Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf. Certainly, they are crucial allies in the president's war on terror, but how much can they be counted on?
Bob Grenier is the former head of the CIA's Counterterrorism Center.
BOB GRENIER, FORMER CIA STATION CHIEF: Each of those leaders and both of those countries have very complicated political situations. And what is perhaps of the greatest relevance to us is that neither leader controls all of his territory. And that's where the problems of greatest concern to the United States really arise.
ROBERTS: And the greatest concern right now is the Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan. Musharraf denies giving the Taliban safe haven in Pakistan's tribal areas.
But, since he signed a peace agreement with leaders in those territories, the U.S. military reports, cross-border attacks have tripled. And, says CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen, Taliban control in Afghanistan is part of Pakistan's strategic defense plan.
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: They have, you know, something called strategic depth. It's the -- their kind of military policy, is: If India attacks us, we want to be able to have Afghanistan as a back area, from which we can regroup and resupply and rearm. And the Taliban is part of that strategic depth policy.
ROBERTS: And what about Karzai? Profits from Afghanistan's unchecked opium industry help fund Taliban fighters, who are killing American and NATO troops.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "THE SITUATION ROOM")
HAMID KARZAI, PRESIDENT OF AFGHANISTAN: We're embarrassed because of it. And we will have to get rid of it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Is Karzai doing enough to eradicate poppy fields? Grenier says no, and by choice, afraid to anger warlords, who control the narcotics trade.
GRENIER: He dare not alienate large elements of his population who are not currently alienated, given the fact that he already has a very large insurgency that he's fighting. ROBERTS: And, then, there's Pakistan's commitment to hunt al Qaeda. Does Musharraf really want to find Osama bin Laden? Not when he's far more popular in Pakistan than Musharraf is, says Bergen.
BERGEN: No Pakistani politician, including President Musharraf, would go after bin Laden, because it would be political suicide to do so.
ROBERTS: So, why stick with these two leaders? Well, Karzai was handpicked by the U.S., won a popular election, and remains fiercely loyal to President Bush. In Pakistan, there are no good alternatives. And experts believe, at his core, Musharraf is on the same team.
BERGEN: Here's a guy who survived at least two very serious assassination attempts by al Qaeda, has personally taken risks. I mean, in the real world, he's about as good an ally as you're going to get.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS: The urgent and difficult task for President Bush is going to be to get some sort of commitment from Pakistan to deal with the Taliban issue. Until now, most of the attention has been on battling the foreign fighters that make up al Qaeda in wild border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan. But the Taliban is quickly becoming the greatest threat to American interests in the region -- Paula.
ZAHN: And, if the belief is so strong by some that, in fact, all Musharraf wants is a destabilized Afghanistan, how likely is it that the president will get that kind of commitment from Musharraf?
ROBERTS: Well, you -- well, you see, here -- here is where you have this -- deal-making, you know?
Musharraf has got some incredible domestic political pressures on him. When he went into those tribal areas with those 70,000 men, he took enormous casualties, and people in Pakistan started turning against him, A, for going into the restricted tribal areas, and, B, incurring so many casualties.
So, if -- if the Taliban is part of Pakistan's overall sort of strategy for survival, he would have a very difficult time cutting any kind of deal in which he would kick them out of the country.
ZAHN: John Roberts, thanks so much.
Coming up: other top stories we're following tonight, including the deepening crisis for the White House and the U.S. military.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ZAHN (voice-over): The bloodshed gets worse in Iraq. A military commander paints a disturbing picture, as the holy month of Ramadan starts with suicide bombings, executions, and American casualties. And the strange emergency of Terrell Owens -- the NFL's $25 million man says a suicide attempt did not send him to the hospital. Is he telling the truth?
All that and more just ahead.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: Another "Top Story" we're following for you tonight: the political guessing game about what kind of October surprise President Bush may be getting ready to announce. I will ask some "Top Story" panelists who they think might be behind that, and if they know what it already is.
Our "Top Story" moves on to the fight for Iraq. Today, U.S. forces killed eight people, including four suspected terrorists and four civilian women. The military says it happened during a raid on a suspected terrorists house just northeast of Baghdad.
But relatives of the dead deny the U.S. account, and say the family had nothing to do with any terrorist group. So far, this week, three Americans have died fighting in Iraq. Also, today gunmen opened fire on worshipers heading to a Sunni mosque in Baghdad. Ten people died, 11 wounded. At least eight died in car bombs.
And, in the last 24 hours alone, police have found 17 bodies, all tortured, throughout Baghdad. It's adding up to an exceptionally violent week in Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MAJOR GENERAL WILLIAM CALDWELL, U.S. ARMY SPOKESMAN, COALITION FORCES IN IRAQ: This has been a tough week. Over the past two weeks, we have seen a rise in the number of attacks, especially in Baghdad.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: The top military spokesman in Iraq saying suicide attacks are at their highest level ever this week.
Let's get the very latest on the situation from Iraq tonight with Michael Ware. He reports from Baghdad.
So, Michael, why the increase in these attacks?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Paula, you know, welcome to the business of war in Iraq. I mean, this is not far off the general grind of attacks and the -- the letting of blood that we have been seeing for well over a year now.
And why the spike right now? Well, welcome to the holy month of Ramadan. This is the fourth Ramadan offensive by the insurgents. We expected this. The military flagged it early on. And here it is. This is a sign that the insurgency, the militias, and al Qaeda, which sends these suicide bombings, are all out there, and thriving -- Paula.
ZAHN: Do Iraqi citizens tell you, Michael, they have any confidence that this new government can do anything about this?
WARE: No, not at all.
I mean, even American officials, offline, will openly admit to you that the prime minister has no power whatsoever. In fact, they see that as one of the appeals of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. He doesn't really have the full backing of any of the major power blocs or the parties, or the militias, more particularly. So, they see him with clay with which they can work.
The trick is giving him power, finding it for him. And that's what this battle of Baghdad is really all about: Secure the city, and try and develop a popular support base for him.
But, when you talk to Iraqis -- and as this poll shows -- no one feels secure, and most people just want the Americans to leave -- Paula.
ZAHN: Yes. Let's talk a little bit more about the specific poll, because it just came out. It was released from University of Maryland, and basically shows that 70 percent of all Iraqis want all U.S. forces out within a year. Is that what you hear on the street?
WARE: That's what I have been hearing for three-and-a-half years, Paula.
I mean, in the early days, in the immediate backwash of the invasion, people were sort of: OK, well, you removed Saddam; you removed that regime.
This is Sunni and Shia.
The next thing was: Well, thank you for that. When are you leaving?
And then the troops didn't. It turned into the occupation. Iraqis refer to the Americans as the occupiers. They are as, to their mind, under a state of occupation. And they don't like it. Middle Iraq gave the American forces a window of opportunity as an extension of good faith: All right, you said you were here to deliver progress and development. So, let's see it. I will give you a year. OK, I gave you two. I gave you three. Well, now, I can't even leave my house. I can't send my kids to school. This isn't working -- Paula.
ZAHN: Michael Ware, thanks so much for the update. Appreciate it.
We're going to get back to our "Top Story" coverage in just a minute.
First, though, Melissa Long is in our Pipeline studio with a countdown of the day's top 10 stories on CNN.com -- Melissa.
MELISSA LONG, CNN PIPELINE: Good evening, Paula.
Nearly 23 million people logged on to CNN.com today. The first member of West Point's class of 9/11 to die in combat is laid to rest. That story is number 10. Second Lieutenant Emily Perez was leading a platoon south of Baghdad a couple of weeks ago, when she was killed by a roadside bomb in Iraq. She was part of the class that entered the academy just weeks before the attacks of September 11, 2001.
Story nine takes you to Berlin, where fear of Muslim anger shuts down an opera. The production of Mozart's "Idomeneo" featured a scene with a severed head of a Prophet Mohammed. German officials warned the opera house that the production could pose a security risk.
And a story about Aerosmith front man Steven Tyler, that's number eight tonight. He recently revealed that he had hepatitis C for several years, but that 11 months of chemotherapy have removed that infection from his bloodstream.
And, Paula, he says -- and I quote "It's one of those few miracles in doctoring where it's like a complete cure." He says, "It's gone."
Pretty amazing.
ZAHN: Very lucky man.
LONG: Yes.
ZAHN: Thanks, Melissa.
We're going to get the rest of the countdown in just a little bit.
And one of tonight's top stories is getting attention way beyond the sports world. Coming up: The Dallas Cowboys' multimillion-dollar receiver Terrell Owens says he did not attempt suicide. So, why did he end up in a hospital? And why are people pulling out records, saying it suggests otherwise?
A little bit later on: the guessing game that's always a top political story this time of the year. What is going to be this year's October surprise?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: Our "Top Story" in sports tonight, one of the more bizarre ones we have heard about lately, and it happened today to one of the NFL's most eccentric and highest-paid stars.
The Dallas Cowboys' Terrell Owens has been known to toss autographed footballs at his rivals, dance around the end zone with pom-poms. So, it was a shock today when, reports say, he was rushed to a hospital after a suicide attempt. Could that be true? Well, it wasn't long before Owens himself faced reporters to answer that very question.
Sean Callebs is covering the story and just sent in this report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The Cowboys wanted Terrell Owens because he has the ability the make the big play. He also has a knack of commanding the spotlight, often for the wrong reasons, a bizarre showman, with a rep for being divisive in the locker room, as well as the front office, for every one of his NFL teams.
On the field, Terrell Owens is an offensive monster. But, today, he was all defense, trying to disarm reports that he had attempted to commit suicide.
TERRELL OWENS, DALLAS COWBOYS: There was no suicide attempt. I think I went home yesterday, after I left the facility. And I -- I took a couple pain pills. And then I had some treatment. I had a physician over treating my hand. And I think, after that, I was just kind of groggy a little bit.
CALLEBS: An attention-grabbing player known widely by his initials, T.O., the Cowboys star says he has no reason to be suicidal.
OWENS: No, I'm not depressed, by any means. You know, I think I -- I'm very happy to be here.
CALLEBS (on camera): So, how did it get to this point? Well, this, we do know. Last night, Owens's publicist called 911, saying the athlete was non-responsive, that he had taken pain pills, along with a number of supplements. He was later rushed to the hospital.
(voice-over): The initial incident report from Dallas Police, a copy of which was obtained by CNN affiliate WFAA, says Owens was attempting suicide by pain medication, that he was depressed, and that Owens answered "Yes" when he was asked if he was attempting suicide.
OWENS: I can barely even remember the doctors, more -- less the -- the police officers that were asking me questions. So, I -- I couldn't tell you if they were the EMT or the -- the police or a doctor.
CALLEBS: Owens' representatives are livid that the information leaked out. The wide receiver went through practice drills today, and said the hoopla was much ado about the reaction to his medication, clearly, a distraction the Cowboys' coach didn't need.
BILL PARCELLS, HEAD COACH, DALLAS COWBOYS: When I find out what the hell is going on, you will know. Until then, I'm not getting interrogated for no reason.
CALLEBS: Don't look for Owens in therapy or the hospital this weekend. The Cowboys say there's a real chance he could return to the field and play Sunday.
(END VIDEOTAPE) CALLEBS: Well, walk around the Cowboys' headquarters here in Irving, and you really hear people use words like surreal and hard to believe.
And couple that with the fact he actually did some sprints today and could theoretically play this coming Sunday.
But, Paula, don't expect this story to be pushed off the headlines any time soon. The Cowboys play the Titans this week. The week after that, they travel to Philadelphia and play the Eagles, the team that Terrell walked out on a year ago. And expect those notorious Philadelphia fans to give him a Philly welcome -- Paula.
ZAHN: You got that right.
Sean Callebs, thanks.
Let's see if any of this makes sense to our "Top Story" panel right now. Don Banks is the senior NFL reporter at Sports Illustrated.com. And Stephen Singular knows Terrell Owens pretty well. He co-wrote the book "Catch This" with Mr. Owens.
Glad to have both of you with us tonight.
So, Stephen, do you believe Owens?
STEPHEN SINGULAR, CO-AUTHOR, "CATCH THIS! GOING DEEP WITH THE NFL'S SHARPEST WEAPON: Yes, I believe that he didn't try to kill himself. But I also believe that he has this incredible pattern of drawing attention to himself, of making coaches mad, of alienating teammates. And he just seems to be continuing that pattern in Dallas which he had in San Francisco and Philadelphia.
ZAHN: Could this be part of a pattern to try to cover up depression, Stephen?
SINGULAR: Well, I think he has some issues with depression.
I was around him. He's a very moody person. He goes very far inside himself. He doesn't want to deal with anybody else or anything. And it's just his world at that point. So, I think there are emotional issues there that he does need to confront.
ZAHN: Don, what are your sources telling you tonight?
DON BANKS, SPORTS ILLUSTRATED.COM: Well, I know I talked to one Cowboys coach this afternoon. And, Paula, the story he told me, he said, yesterday afternoon, Tuesday afternoon, Terrell Owens was in camp. He was joking around in a quarterbacks meeting.
He was -- he was kidding his teammates. He looked relaxed. He looked happy. He looked into it. It didn't really add up to a suicide attempt just hours later.
Now, I have talked to Philadelphia Eagles officials in the past six months who felt like he certainly had mental illness symptoms at times. So, I think there's issues there. I just don't think this -- in this case, it added up to a suicide attempt.
ZAHN: And, Stephen, what is it about what happened in his early childhood that people are pointing to as -- as perhaps creating this emotional instability?
SINGULAR: Well, his grandmother was very strict, and leaned on him very hard, which I think is part of the reason he wants to have so much fun in the NFL.
He didn't have a father. There was a lot of conflict around that issue. And he seems to challenge these male authority figures over and over again, coaches. He likes to steamroll them, as he did in San Francisco and Philadelphia. I don't know if Bill Parcells is going to put up with that. Maybe he will -- he will draw a line in the sand here.
ZAHN: So, how does Mr. Owens move beyond this, Don?
BANKS: Well, I think that we're talking about football already again with -- with Terrell Owens is remarkable, given where the story seemed to be at this morning.
But I think that he knows that this is virtually his last chance in the NFL to get it right. This is three strikes and he's out, so I think he's pretty determined. Trouble does seem to find him, Paula, na matter what he does, but in this case I really think it was a confluence of circumstances that he can kind of distance himself from if he performs on the field very shortly.
ZAHN: Stephen, how much do fans really care about what happened today and the confusion caused by initial reports and then Terrell trying to set the record straight himself?
SINGULAR: I think fans are involved in it and just trying to understand his personality. He's a very complex person. We devote a lot of time to talking about him and analyzing him, but if he performs well on the field, this will probably go away pretty soon.
ZAHN: All right, gentlemen, glad to have you both with us, Stephen Singular and Don Banks. Appreciate your time.
SINGULAR: Thank you.
BANKS: Thank you.
ZAHN: And we are going to move along now.
Let's go back to Melissa Long who joins us from our Pipeline studios.
LONG: Yes and millions of people wanted to stay up-to-date on the terrifying afternoon at the high school in Bailey, Colorado. Police say a man entered the building and took six hostages where he then shot and critically wounded a student.
That's according to police and killed himself after a SWAT team entered that school in Bailey, Colorado.
Story number six Pervez Musharraf's appearance on the daily show last night, it was pretty humorous. The Pakistani president was offered jasmine tea and Twinkies. It's the first time a sitting head of state has been on that show as a guest.
And story number five, a three-week-long plague of locusts have overwhelmed Cancun, Mexico. Officials say the insects are destroying entire fields of crops, but they add so far the tourist resorts are unaffected. The concern here that the locusts, the clouds of locus could destroy the corn crops, and that area is still really recovering after Hurricane Wilma.
ZAHN: Melissa, thanks so much. We'll continue the countdown in a little bit.
Meanwhile the fall campaign is in full swing, but a lot of people think President Bush is still holding back something. In a minute I'll ask a top story panel if the president has an October surprise up his sleeve, and if so, what might it be?
Then a little later on a shocking accident, this is a top story because it raises a lot of questions about older drivers, and everyone's safety.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: Coming up in this half-hour our top story coverage, the accident that started a nationwide debate, when do we get too old to drive safely and how many lives might we threaten in the process? And coming at the top of the hour up on LARRY KING LIVE, one time "American Idol" contestant Clay Aiken takes on the sensational stories about him floating out there in tabloid land.
Tonight's top story in politics now is floating all over the Internet. Political junkies are guessing about the October surprise that Karl Rove, President Bush's political guru, supposedly has in store for all of us. The term October surprise refers to a last- minute announcement or news story that is guaranteed to blow away a candidate's competition just in time for Election Day.
So what's going to happen next month? Well, that all depends on who you ask.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ZAHN (voice-over): The political blogs are buzzing. They say Karl Rove is already bragging he has a big October surprise up his sleeve. Will gas prices somehow be manipulated to hit rock bottom? Are we in for another tax cut? Will the U.S. attack Iran's nuclear facilities? Will the administration announce that Osama bin Laden is dead or in custody? According to the political blogs any of the above or all of the above will be this year's October surprise. But actually it may be none of the above.
If you look back, so called October surprises were either mythical or had little impact on elections. In 1980 President Jimmy Carter didn't derail Ronald Reagan's campaign by negotiating the release of the U.S. hostages in Iran. Carter lost. The hostages weren't freed until Ronald Reagan's inauguration.
In 2000 the sudden revelation that George W. Bush had been arrested for drunk driving back in 1976 proved little more than just a blip.
BUSH: This happened 24 years ago. I do find it interesting it's come out four or five days before an election.
ZAHN: Allegations that actor turned candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger may have groped women did not end his campaign for governor in 2003.
GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER, (R) CA: If I offended anyone I want to say sorry.
ZAHN: In 2004 Democrats worried that President Bush would pull an October surprise on Senator John Kerry by suddenly announcing that U.S. forces had captured or killed Osama bin Laden. Actually bin laden had his own October surprise. Vide taping a message needling both presidential candidates. In every election year candidates are on the lookout for October surprises and for the supposed political plots behind them, and clearly this year is no exception.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ZAHN (on camera): Well, October starts on Sunday. You probably knew that. Former U.S. senator and presidential candidate Gary Hart has already posted his prediction for this year's October surprise, a war with Iran, and joining him on our top story panel is David Frum, a former speechwriter for President Bush and Wayne Slater a coauthor of two books about Karl Rove. Glad to have all you with us tonight.
So Mr. Hart we know you wrote you think it's a distinct possibility that the U.S. may wage a preemptive strike on Iran. Help me understand how that would rally people to the Republican side when their opinion on this war of Iraq is so discordant?
GARY HART, FORMER SENATOR: Well, I think Iran has been on the enemy's list from the beginning. It's part of the Axis of Evil, the arguments are that it's deviling nuclear weapons. This would be intolerable in the Middle East. An Air Force strike could knock those facilities out. How much farther this would go, no one knows but I think with an administration very far behind and given all the signals that have been sent out from the White House, this has to be considered as a possibility.
ZAHN: You say considered as a possibility. Have you personally seen any evidence that this is a distinct possibility?
HART: No, but there are articles circulating in the public press written by knowledgeable experts, one by Colonel Sam Gardener (ph), an Air Force colonel who has studied the issue who says that the administration being very impatient with diplomacy has gotten itself into a situation where it may feel that it has no other alternative.
ZAHN: Do you think the administration, David Frum, feels that trapped right now?
DAVID FRUM, FORMER BUSH SPEECHWRITER: I think we have to get Senator Hart out of the blogosphere and back into the Senate.
The system doesn't work that way. The United States does not strike countries out of a clear blue sky. To go to a major war and make no mistake a war with Iran would be major, involves massive making of the case to the public, a resolution from both the House and the Senate, it involves the building of international support, the United States always gets some form of international legitimation before a major undertaking, it did before Iraq, it did before Kosovo with NATO.
I -- we all hope there will be a peaceful resolution to this crisis, but if it is not peaceful, there will be lots and lots of warnings, many opportunities for the Iranians to come to an agreement and force will truly be a last resort.
And I will bet the senator a hundred pounds of pistachio nuts that we will not see a war with Iran not this October, not in the next October, not the October after that.
ZAHN: I don't even know if Mr. Hart would want them if he won that bet.
So, Wayne Slater, we've heard David just shoot down Gary Hart's theory we've read a lot in the blogosphere, but just about everything is being floated out there. That Osama bin Laden will be captured or killed, we'll see oil prices dip dramatically before the election. Is Karl Rove really capable of orchestrating any of these things that are being bandied about out there?
WAYNE SLATER, KARL ROVE BIOGRAPHER: Sure he is. Some of these things. I'm not sure an attack on Iran is something Karl alone could orchestrate. But sure he could be involved in something to the effect that he has a history over the years of being involved in October surprises in the past going back to 1994 against Anne Richards when some unfortunate information was disclosed late in the campaign.
The key here is it doesn't have to be an attack on Iran. It could be an announcement that's really based on fact, an announcement about a finding of some kind of al Qaeda cell, the suspicions about some kind of terrorist movement in the united states, anything that's consistent with the central message of the Republican Party in this campaign, and that's that the bad guys are here, reminding Democrats and Republicans alike that the bad guys could hurt us and suggesting the Republicans are the best guys to deal with it.
ZAHN: David, you look pretty skeptical, and I may be reading more into your expression but you don't think this is remotely a possibility.
FRUM: Reminding people why they should vote for you is not a surprise, it's called politics. But to talk about this in terms of Karl Rove, Karl Rove's key theory, the thing that has made him successful is his belief that the undecided vote in American politics is shrinking and that the recipe for success is not trying to sway undecideds at the last moment, but by a long-term effort to build the enthusiasm of your own core supporters. That's his contribution to modern political tactics.
So this idea of some kind of surprise would go against of everything that he believes about how elections work.
ZAHN: All right. So Gary Hart if it isn't a preemptive strike on Iran, what else do you think could be floated out there by the administration?
HART: I think we're wasting our time talking about Mr. Rove. The pacification of the Middle East has been on the plate of the neoconservatives for well over 10 years, nine years before 9/11. Iran has been part of that.
None of the conditions that Mr. Frum said applied to Iraq actually applied. We went pretty much on our own. The coalition is -- as everybody knows, pretty much is a sham. It was an American operation. And America could undertake this same thing itself.
ZAHN: Gary Hart, David Frum, Wayne Slater, we're going to leave it there and see what October might bring again. Thanks. LARRY KING LIVE coming up in just a few minutes. Hi, Larry.
LARRY KING, CNN HOST: Hi, Paula.
ZAHN: Who's joining you tonight?
KING: Well, one night after Anna Nicole Smith's lawyer told us that he fathered her child, tonight news on what killed her son Daniel two weeks ago.
The forensic pathologist she hired to do a second autopsy had his lab results back and he's going to reveal them here. Plus singing star Clay Aiken, the one-time "American Idol" battles rumors about his private life and battling panic attacks all that at the top of the hour immediately following you, Paula.
ZAHN: You're not going to create a panic attack tonight, are you, Larry?
KING: No, I'm going to be calm.
ZAHN: OK. Good. Thanks. Look forward to your show. Appreciate it.
More top story coverage coming up. Let's go back to Melissa Long who continues the countdown. Melissa?
LONG: There is some more tragedy surrounding the Sago Mine in Virginia (sic). People wanted to learn about the two men who worked there had on the day of the deadly explosion, January, that have committed suicide.
Neither suicide victim had been blamed for contributing to the accident that killed 12 miners.
You were just talking about with Larry the return of "American Idol" runner up Clay Aiken. That's story number three tonight. He has a new album and a new kind of edgy look after a year and a half out of the spotlight. And again, he'll be on LARRY KING tonight talking about what he kind of calls his new chapter or whole new look in his life. And he's just 27. So it will be interesting to see what's next, Paula.
ZAHN: He's got a long time ahead of him. Melissa, thanks.
Time now for a quick biz break. The Dow gained almost 20 points closing just short of its record high. The NASDAQ was up two points, the S&P almost unchanged. The sale of new homes in August increased unexpectedly for the first time in five months, but analysts say the market remains soft.
And an unexpected jump in oil prices today, rising $2 a barrel to close to $63 a barrel. And that brings us to our nightly look at gas prices all over the country. Our crude awakenings. The states with today's lowest prices are in green. The highest prices in red.
The average today for unleaded regular $2.36 per gallon. Here's the latest trend in gasoline prices. Still falling, but not quite as fast as we saw several weeks ago.
Meanwhile, more than 28 million drivers in this country are over the age of 65. That's right, 28 million. How can we figure out which ones should never be behind the wheel? Stay with us for a top story that's also a mystery of the mind and a story we all should be concerned about.
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ZAHN: Right now a top story that's also a mystery of the mind, and it's especially interesting if you have an elderly relative whose driving worries you a lot. The government counts more than 28 million drivers on the road over the age of 65, some in their 80s, some in their 90s.
But after one of them went for a drive in Santa Monica three years ago 10 ended up being dead and 60 were run over in a disastrous accident. That driver is on trial and this week some revealing new video is being shown in court highlighting the dangers that could be headed your way with so many unsteady drivers on the road. Ted Rowlands has our story. One of the mysteries of the mind.
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TED ROWLANDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is a police videotape released this week of George Weller talking to investigators just hours after he killed 10 people and injured 60 others by driving his car through a farmer's market in Santa Monica, California. GEORGE WELLER, KILLED PEOPLE IN CAR CRASH: I was all that was between the farmer's market and eternity.
ROWLANDS: George Weller was 86 years old in July of 2003 when he plowed through a barrier and accelerated into a crowded street filled with vendors and shoppers.
WELLER: Did I step on the accelerator instead of the brake? That would be logical.
ROWLANDS: That's exactly what Weller's lawyers are arguing happened. He's on trial for manslaughter. They maintain Weller was a victim of something called unintended acceleration, an odd but widely recognized phenomenon.
It's when a driver mistakenly puts his or her foot on the gas pedal instead of the break, and doesn't realize what they're doing.
WELLER: I had the feeling that I reaccelerated three or four times as I went down the street.
ROWLANDS (on camera): According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration drivers over the age of 70 are five times more likely to have an episode of pedal confusion than other drivers which brings to the forefront an issue that states and thousands of families deal with every year. When is it time to take the keys away from somebody who still wants to drive?
BARBARA FREUND, EASTERN VIRGINIA MEDICAL SCHOOL: In the population 65 and older, a third will have cognitive impairment that ranges from a mild impairment through being demented.
ROWLANDS: Barbara Freund, an expert on elderly drivers, advocates testing for cognitive ability as a requirement for people 65 and older to get their licenses renewed. She says very few people will voluntarily stop driving.
FREUND: Since it is their last hold on independence, that it somehow signals that they're not as worthy as a person if they're not able to drive.
ROWLANDS: Near the end of the police interview George Weller didn't seem to have a problem with the idea of driving himself home. In fact initially his only hesitation about driving was based on the condition of his car, but then as you can hear he started to wonder out loud about what happened.
WELLER: I tell you I can't drive that car I was in. You should have seen after I ran over a dozen apple crates and things like that. But God almighty. Those poor people. Poor, poor tragic people. And I contributed to it which is almost more than I can figure out.
ROWLANDS: While a jury figures out what to do with George Weller many people think changes need to be made in the way seniors are evaluated for driving tests to prevent something like this from happening again. Ted Rowlands, CNN, Los Angeles. (END VIDEOTAPE)
ZAHN: And George Weller could be sentenced up to 18 years in prison if convicted on all of the charges. The trial is expected to last for about another month.
Let's go back to Melissa now for the final part of our countdown. Melissa?
LONG: In at number two, remembering the life and legacy of Steve Irwin. His widow Terri is telling Australian television that her husband always felt he would die early, but that he would be killed in a car crash, not by an animal. Irwin died September 4th after being jabbed by a stingray while filming one of his specials.
Story number one tonight, Anna Nicole's attorney telling Larry King he's the father of her new baby girl. And just in tonight a doctor who did a private autopsy on Smith's son Daniel tells the Associated Press that he died of a lethal combination of methadone and antidepressant drugs. And you have to imagine the highs and lows for Miss Smith of having a newborn and then days later losing your son. It's almost hard to wrap your head around.
ZAHN: It really is. It's mostly sad at this point. Melissa, thanks.
Coming up in just a minute we're going to check back on a critical White House meeting involving President Bush and the leader of the Pakistan and Afghanistan. Check out this body language, folks. What should that tell us?
ANNOUNCER: CNN tonight. On the Emmy award winning AC 360," war of words. As politicians battle in DC, marines in Iraq die in record numbers. Meet those paying a heavy price. CNN tonight 10:00 Eastern.
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ZAHN: Columbus Circle's spinning tonight. Just a heads up before we go. President Bush and the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan are still at dinner talking strategy over plates of spicy sea bass in the White House's old family ding room. The three leaders appeared briefly in the Rose Garden before the dinner started. Neither the president of Afghanistan nor Pakistan even looking at each other. Stay with CNN throughout the night for the latest on this dinner for the presidents of both of those countries. The president's spokesman has promised some kind of update after that dinner.
And tomorrow I'll have an exclusive interview with Senator John Kerry, is he running or not for president?
Also, an in depth look at why some people are calling your representatives in Washington a do nothing Congress as Congress gets set to wrap up the session and go home at the end of the week.
That's it for all of us here tonight. We wrap it up right now. Thanks again for dropping by. Good night. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
