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Q&A with Jim Clancy

Q&A 11:30

Aired June 04, 2003 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KING ABDULLAH II, JORDAN: The eyes of the entire world will be upon you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAHMOUD ABBAS, PALESTINIAN PRIME MINISTER: Our goal is two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ARIEL SHARON, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: It is our hope for unity and peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: All people have the right to live in peace.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JIM CLANCY, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR (voice-over): The goal, the hope, the right to peace in that Middle East. That is what the leaders said at the Aqaba summit. But what is the message in the street from Palestinians and Israelis?

On this edition of "Q&A," the road map to peace, the people's view.

(on camera): Welcome once again to "Q&A."

Well, we've heard what the U.S. president and the Israeli and Palestinian prime ministers have had to say about their road map for peace in the Middle East. How will their words be accepted by their own people?

With us today, well, those who should know or have a good idea at least.

From Jerusalem, we're joined by Rafi Smith. Now he's an Israeli pollster with Smith Research & Consulting.

From Ramallah, on the West Bank, Khalil Shikaki, a Palestinian pollster with the Palestinian Center for Policy & Survey Research.

And from Washington, we're joined by Steve Kull. He's the director of the University of Maryland's program on international policy attitudes.

And, Steve, let me begin with you and just ask you this question. You have an event like this, people calling it historic. You bring together the leaders. How much does just the event like this sway people's opinions?

STEVEN KULL, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND: Well, Americans are really supportive of this kind to thing. They want to see the president take these kinds of steps. They're -- they have a positive attitude about the whole road map process, and the more information they get about it, the more they like it.

They also like to see the president working together with other countries. They have -- they like this kind of multilateral approach. They like working through the quartet. So this is a -- this is definitely a positive in the mind of the public.

CLANCY: I want to go over now to our guest, Rafi, in Jerusalem, I believe, and ask him when you look at how -- what the attitudes are -- and I read some of the surveys that you covered -- there seems to be a lot of distrust that the prime minister is serious about this plan. Some people believe it's only a maneuver.

RAFI SMITH, ISRAELI POLLSTER: It's true. About 46 percent of the people in Israel think it's a tactical maneuver of Sharon, but, still, as a general opinion, the people here support the government way of -- to get the road map on the road.

But they are very skeptical -- or I would say they are very pessimistic if it will implement it and will come through. I think we have a lot of big crises inside the society here if things are going to happen, especially in the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) they will have a lot of -- I would say a lot of trouble inside, but, basically, the people in Israel support the move.

CLANCY: Well, Rafi, I want to take a look at one of your surveys here. The question that you asked was this -- from the Israeli side -- was the government's decision to accept the road map correct or incorrect. Fifty-six percent said it was correct.

When asked to give an opinion on whether Mr. Sharon's position in the road map was genuine or a tactical maneuver intended to alleviate American pressure, 46 percent said it was a tactical maneuver. Thirty-nine percent said it was genuine.

Now, Rafi, as you look at those numbers and you look at the events today, you listen to the words of Ariel Sharon as he spoke alongside President George Bush, what affect will that have on some of the public opinion?

SMITH: Well, in Israel -- because Israel -- the Israelis are very -- they have a lot of experience with all those big events. They take it very slow. They want to see things happening, what we called things really happening. Is the terror -- are terror attacks going to stop, going to go -- reduce? Are the -- is the government going to really withdraw from some of those unauthorized settlements? All those things people will take them step by step here.

There is a lot of -- I would say the main thing is the mistrust or the fact that people in Israel don't believe that the Palestinians will come through. So if things will deliver by the Palestinians and -- I think step by step the Israeli will show that they are open and ready to make big consensus and move back towards the '67 border, but it will take a long time because they think it will happen -- it will take a few years.

CLANCY: All right. Khalil Shikaki with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research joining us.

And I want to look at some of the numbers that you have -- this is, obviously, before the summit -- from the Palestinian side.

Do you support the road map for peace? Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said, yes, they do.

And to the question do you support the measures taken by the Palestinian Authority to prevent armed attacks against Israel, half of those surveyed responded yes.

As we look at those numbers and you look at this event, what is on the minds -- the thinking -- are the Palestinians, like the Israelis, the public at least, waiting to see what happens with this proposal before they support it?

KHALIL SHIKAKI, PALESTINIAN POLLSTER: To a large extent, Palestinians and Israelis think alike. Both support the road map, and, at the same time, they have a great deal of doubts about the intentions of the other side, after more than two years of lack of confidence and trust, you do not expect anything different.

The Palestinians do fully support a return to negotiations. They're not sure that the road map is the best means of doing that, as they certainly don't like another Oslo or another interim agreement, but, at the same time, they are really ready and supportive of Abu Mazen.

It's clear that the majority, almost two-thirds, of the Palestinians supported the appointment of Abu Mazen, and those who support Abu Mazen in particular tend to be a lot more supportive of the peace process. So I am -- and the road map.

So Abu Mazen has a chance to take -- to lead the Palestinians along the road map. If, along the way, he is, indeed, successful and the Israelis do evacuate settlements and outposts and do freeze settlement construction, pull out of the Palestinian cities and populated areas, I believe that this presumptions will definitely increase.

CLANCY: All right. I want to turn our focus on the U.S. here.

President Bush, obviously, was trapped on a -- not trapped, but captured, I should say, on television and overheard to be very enthusiastic, promising both Ariel Sharon and Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas he was going to put all of his energy into this process.

Do the American people support him? Well, when Americans were asked about how they felt about the road map, 55 percent said, although they're not very well informed about the plan, they did have a positive view of it. Now, when they were informed of some of the key elements in the plan, the support for the road map rose to 74 percent. And to the question will a resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict significantly lower the risk of terrorism against the U.S., more than half, 55 percent, answered yes.

Steve Kull, how do we read those numbers? Are Americans really engaged on this?

KULL: Well, they do think that there is a -- this is related to the threat of terrorism, so it is an important issue, and, just from a moral point of view, they're concerned about it.

And they want the president to take a strong role in this. They are ready to see the president put pressure on both sides, including putting pressure on Israel, even going so far as to threatening to withhold foreign aid to Israel if Israel doesn't take the necessary steps.

CLANCY: Rafi Smith, when you look at -- tonight, there are -- I believe there in Jerusalem there are going to be demonstrations against the road map. You heard the prime minister today with reservations saying we accept the road map as it was approved by the Israeli Cabinet, and the problem there, of course, is that list of 14 reservations. What's going on here?

SMITH: Well, I would say, like any government in the world, Israeli have internal policy. Ariel Sharon is trying to gain support, I would say. He knows he has a problem with his coalition members from the right. So he's trying to put some reservation to the resolution in order to say to the public that, if it does not come through, he has sort of something to lean on back.

My assumption is that it will a few weeks or a few -- even a few months until the Israeli public will see. If things will come forward and things will move along, then there'll probably be a big discussion inside the Israeli society how should they carry on because a lot of people had hopes with the Oslo agreements, and they're still -- most of them do not believe that the Palestinians are willing and able to carry on this road map to the end. That's on one hand.

CLANCY: Do...

SMITH: On the other hand, most of the Israelis accept the fact that the Palestinian state is something that is -- it's a fact, and they already have this opinion for a long time, and it took a while until the Israeli government agreed or got to the accept -- to accept the fact that the public in Israel are ready for a Palestinian state.

CLANCY: Khalil, this is one of the things -- and I think a lot of Palestinians as well doubt the ability of the Palestinian Authority to stop the terror, to stop groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and others.

In all of this equation, something's missing. In everything that we saw today, something was missing -- or someone, I should say, was missing, and that has to be Yasser Arafat, still seen by most Palestinians to be the leader. What effect would Yasser Arafat standing up today and supporting the road map, calling for an end to violence in public in front of the Palestinians -- what would its effect be?

SHIKAKI: There is no doubt that Yasser Arafat still plays a significant role in the Palestinian politic, definitely the most popular Palestinian leader, but confidence in him has, indeed, over the years been going down. And the reason that we have such a large majority of Palestinians supporting Abu Mazen as the prime minister is the fact that many Palestinians have lost confidence in Arafat's leadership.

However, he still remains the symbol of Palestinian national aspirations for independence and sainthood. And, indeed, Abu Mazen needs his whole support as he tries to implement the road map. There is no doubt that Arafat's support, particularly if the need arises for a serious crackdown on those who would continue to use the violence, Abu Mazen will definitely need the support of Arafat.

And, if Arafat is to withhold that support at that critical moment, this will, indeed, have some very serious effects on the ability of Abu Mazen to carry out that crackdown. So Arafat remains very important for the process and for the success of Abu Mazen in particular.

CLANCY: Steve Kull, you know, something that was perhaps missing a little bit from some of the coverage and the way that people look upon what happened in Aqaba this day is the fact that all of this is based on a road map that is not the sole property of George W. Bush, very much fashioned between the United Nations, the European Union, to be sure, as well as Russia. How much U.S. involvement support is there among the public? Is it all hinging on the president, or is it for the broader process?

KULL: Well, the public supports this kind of multilateral process. Sixty-four percent said that they approved of working through the quartet, even when it was spelled out that this might limit the freedom of action of the United States or might lead to more pressure on Israel than the U.S. might want.

So the public understands that this is going to have some constraining effect, but, still, they support working in this multilateral way, as they do in general.

CLANCY: Rafi Smith, what's the next question you really would like to ask your own public, the Israeli public, about the process, about what they've seen?

SMITH: Well, I think the main thing is the fact that Arafat is -- at this point is in the game and out of the game is something that people in Israel have to see. If Arafat -- the main problem in Israel with Arafat is the fact that he's really totally mistrust, and the fact -- if we have a poll, I would say that about maybe even minus -- OK. If you have a minus in the polls, this is about the trust that people have in Arafat.

The problem is that most of the Israelis do not believe at this point of time that the road map is going to -- at the end of the day will be implemented. They still a lot of obstacles on the way, and I think a lot of -- I would say the main thing is to see if this kind of a summit or this kind of moves that will be done by Bush and the -- Sharon and the Palestinian Authority -- will that enable the people here to see something more bright?

Still people here in Israel have a lot of hope in the peace process, but they still believe it's going to take a generation -- most of them said that even...

CLANCY: All right.

SMITH: They said that when Barak was two years ago in Taba, we were - - they were very close to the agreement...

CLANCY: OK.

SMITH: ... and most of the people still believe that the...

CLANCY: I want to get in Khalil Shikaki.

SMITH: ... it will take 25 years or more.

CLANCY: I just want to -- very briefly, Khalil Shikaki, what's the question you want to ask the Palestinians now?

SHIKAKI: The question I fear to ask the Palestinians now is what happens if Sharon does not dismantle the settlements and does not, indeed, freeze settlement construction.

CLANCY: All right.

SHIKAKI: I think this is the biggest fear. This is my biggest fear, how the public would respond to a negative development such as this one.

CLANCY: All right. We have to leave it there, gentlemen. Khalil Shikaki, Rafi Smith, and Steve Kull. Gentlemen, I want to thank all three of your bringing us the public view on the Middle East peace process today.

That has to be it for this edition of "Q&A."

We'll have more news in just a moment.

END

TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com



Aired June 4, 2003 - 11:30:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KING ABDULLAH II, JORDAN: The eyes of the entire world will be upon you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAHMOUD ABBAS, PALESTINIAN PRIME MINISTER: Our goal is two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ARIEL SHARON, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: It is our hope for unity and peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: All people have the right to live in peace.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JIM CLANCY, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR (voice-over): The goal, the hope, the right to peace in that Middle East. That is what the leaders said at the Aqaba summit. But what is the message in the street from Palestinians and Israelis?

On this edition of "Q&A," the road map to peace, the people's view.

(on camera): Welcome once again to "Q&A."

Well, we've heard what the U.S. president and the Israeli and Palestinian prime ministers have had to say about their road map for peace in the Middle East. How will their words be accepted by their own people?

With us today, well, those who should know or have a good idea at least.

From Jerusalem, we're joined by Rafi Smith. Now he's an Israeli pollster with Smith Research & Consulting.

From Ramallah, on the West Bank, Khalil Shikaki, a Palestinian pollster with the Palestinian Center for Policy & Survey Research.

And from Washington, we're joined by Steve Kull. He's the director of the University of Maryland's program on international policy attitudes.

And, Steve, let me begin with you and just ask you this question. You have an event like this, people calling it historic. You bring together the leaders. How much does just the event like this sway people's opinions?

STEVEN KULL, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND: Well, Americans are really supportive of this kind to thing. They want to see the president take these kinds of steps. They're -- they have a positive attitude about the whole road map process, and the more information they get about it, the more they like it.

They also like to see the president working together with other countries. They have -- they like this kind of multilateral approach. They like working through the quartet. So this is a -- this is definitely a positive in the mind of the public.

CLANCY: I want to go over now to our guest, Rafi, in Jerusalem, I believe, and ask him when you look at how -- what the attitudes are -- and I read some of the surveys that you covered -- there seems to be a lot of distrust that the prime minister is serious about this plan. Some people believe it's only a maneuver.

RAFI SMITH, ISRAELI POLLSTER: It's true. About 46 percent of the people in Israel think it's a tactical maneuver of Sharon, but, still, as a general opinion, the people here support the government way of -- to get the road map on the road.

But they are very skeptical -- or I would say they are very pessimistic if it will implement it and will come through. I think we have a lot of big crises inside the society here if things are going to happen, especially in the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) they will have a lot of -- I would say a lot of trouble inside, but, basically, the people in Israel support the move.

CLANCY: Well, Rafi, I want to take a look at one of your surveys here. The question that you asked was this -- from the Israeli side -- was the government's decision to accept the road map correct or incorrect. Fifty-six percent said it was correct.

When asked to give an opinion on whether Mr. Sharon's position in the road map was genuine or a tactical maneuver intended to alleviate American pressure, 46 percent said it was a tactical maneuver. Thirty-nine percent said it was genuine.

Now, Rafi, as you look at those numbers and you look at the events today, you listen to the words of Ariel Sharon as he spoke alongside President George Bush, what affect will that have on some of the public opinion?

SMITH: Well, in Israel -- because Israel -- the Israelis are very -- they have a lot of experience with all those big events. They take it very slow. They want to see things happening, what we called things really happening. Is the terror -- are terror attacks going to stop, going to go -- reduce? Are the -- is the government going to really withdraw from some of those unauthorized settlements? All those things people will take them step by step here.

There is a lot of -- I would say the main thing is the mistrust or the fact that people in Israel don't believe that the Palestinians will come through. So if things will deliver by the Palestinians and -- I think step by step the Israeli will show that they are open and ready to make big consensus and move back towards the '67 border, but it will take a long time because they think it will happen -- it will take a few years.

CLANCY: All right. Khalil Shikaki with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research joining us.

And I want to look at some of the numbers that you have -- this is, obviously, before the summit -- from the Palestinian side.

Do you support the road map for peace? Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said, yes, they do.

And to the question do you support the measures taken by the Palestinian Authority to prevent armed attacks against Israel, half of those surveyed responded yes.

As we look at those numbers and you look at this event, what is on the minds -- the thinking -- are the Palestinians, like the Israelis, the public at least, waiting to see what happens with this proposal before they support it?

KHALIL SHIKAKI, PALESTINIAN POLLSTER: To a large extent, Palestinians and Israelis think alike. Both support the road map, and, at the same time, they have a great deal of doubts about the intentions of the other side, after more than two years of lack of confidence and trust, you do not expect anything different.

The Palestinians do fully support a return to negotiations. They're not sure that the road map is the best means of doing that, as they certainly don't like another Oslo or another interim agreement, but, at the same time, they are really ready and supportive of Abu Mazen.

It's clear that the majority, almost two-thirds, of the Palestinians supported the appointment of Abu Mazen, and those who support Abu Mazen in particular tend to be a lot more supportive of the peace process. So I am -- and the road map.

So Abu Mazen has a chance to take -- to lead the Palestinians along the road map. If, along the way, he is, indeed, successful and the Israelis do evacuate settlements and outposts and do freeze settlement construction, pull out of the Palestinian cities and populated areas, I believe that this presumptions will definitely increase.

CLANCY: All right. I want to turn our focus on the U.S. here.

President Bush, obviously, was trapped on a -- not trapped, but captured, I should say, on television and overheard to be very enthusiastic, promising both Ariel Sharon and Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas he was going to put all of his energy into this process.

Do the American people support him? Well, when Americans were asked about how they felt about the road map, 55 percent said, although they're not very well informed about the plan, they did have a positive view of it. Now, when they were informed of some of the key elements in the plan, the support for the road map rose to 74 percent. And to the question will a resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict significantly lower the risk of terrorism against the U.S., more than half, 55 percent, answered yes.

Steve Kull, how do we read those numbers? Are Americans really engaged on this?

KULL: Well, they do think that there is a -- this is related to the threat of terrorism, so it is an important issue, and, just from a moral point of view, they're concerned about it.

And they want the president to take a strong role in this. They are ready to see the president put pressure on both sides, including putting pressure on Israel, even going so far as to threatening to withhold foreign aid to Israel if Israel doesn't take the necessary steps.

CLANCY: Rafi Smith, when you look at -- tonight, there are -- I believe there in Jerusalem there are going to be demonstrations against the road map. You heard the prime minister today with reservations saying we accept the road map as it was approved by the Israeli Cabinet, and the problem there, of course, is that list of 14 reservations. What's going on here?

SMITH: Well, I would say, like any government in the world, Israeli have internal policy. Ariel Sharon is trying to gain support, I would say. He knows he has a problem with his coalition members from the right. So he's trying to put some reservation to the resolution in order to say to the public that, if it does not come through, he has sort of something to lean on back.

My assumption is that it will a few weeks or a few -- even a few months until the Israeli public will see. If things will come forward and things will move along, then there'll probably be a big discussion inside the Israeli society how should they carry on because a lot of people had hopes with the Oslo agreements, and they're still -- most of them do not believe that the Palestinians are willing and able to carry on this road map to the end. That's on one hand.

CLANCY: Do...

SMITH: On the other hand, most of the Israelis accept the fact that the Palestinian state is something that is -- it's a fact, and they already have this opinion for a long time, and it took a while until the Israeli government agreed or got to the accept -- to accept the fact that the public in Israel are ready for a Palestinian state.

CLANCY: Khalil, this is one of the things -- and I think a lot of Palestinians as well doubt the ability of the Palestinian Authority to stop the terror, to stop groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and others.

In all of this equation, something's missing. In everything that we saw today, something was missing -- or someone, I should say, was missing, and that has to be Yasser Arafat, still seen by most Palestinians to be the leader. What effect would Yasser Arafat standing up today and supporting the road map, calling for an end to violence in public in front of the Palestinians -- what would its effect be?

SHIKAKI: There is no doubt that Yasser Arafat still plays a significant role in the Palestinian politic, definitely the most popular Palestinian leader, but confidence in him has, indeed, over the years been going down. And the reason that we have such a large majority of Palestinians supporting Abu Mazen as the prime minister is the fact that many Palestinians have lost confidence in Arafat's leadership.

However, he still remains the symbol of Palestinian national aspirations for independence and sainthood. And, indeed, Abu Mazen needs his whole support as he tries to implement the road map. There is no doubt that Arafat's support, particularly if the need arises for a serious crackdown on those who would continue to use the violence, Abu Mazen will definitely need the support of Arafat.

And, if Arafat is to withhold that support at that critical moment, this will, indeed, have some very serious effects on the ability of Abu Mazen to carry out that crackdown. So Arafat remains very important for the process and for the success of Abu Mazen in particular.

CLANCY: Steve Kull, you know, something that was perhaps missing a little bit from some of the coverage and the way that people look upon what happened in Aqaba this day is the fact that all of this is based on a road map that is not the sole property of George W. Bush, very much fashioned between the United Nations, the European Union, to be sure, as well as Russia. How much U.S. involvement support is there among the public? Is it all hinging on the president, or is it for the broader process?

KULL: Well, the public supports this kind of multilateral process. Sixty-four percent said that they approved of working through the quartet, even when it was spelled out that this might limit the freedom of action of the United States or might lead to more pressure on Israel than the U.S. might want.

So the public understands that this is going to have some constraining effect, but, still, they support working in this multilateral way, as they do in general.

CLANCY: Rafi Smith, what's the next question you really would like to ask your own public, the Israeli public, about the process, about what they've seen?

SMITH: Well, I think the main thing is the fact that Arafat is -- at this point is in the game and out of the game is something that people in Israel have to see. If Arafat -- the main problem in Israel with Arafat is the fact that he's really totally mistrust, and the fact -- if we have a poll, I would say that about maybe even minus -- OK. If you have a minus in the polls, this is about the trust that people have in Arafat.

The problem is that most of the Israelis do not believe at this point of time that the road map is going to -- at the end of the day will be implemented. They still a lot of obstacles on the way, and I think a lot of -- I would say the main thing is to see if this kind of a summit or this kind of moves that will be done by Bush and the -- Sharon and the Palestinian Authority -- will that enable the people here to see something more bright?

Still people here in Israel have a lot of hope in the peace process, but they still believe it's going to take a generation -- most of them said that even...

CLANCY: All right.

SMITH: They said that when Barak was two years ago in Taba, we were - - they were very close to the agreement...

CLANCY: OK.

SMITH: ... and most of the people still believe that the...

CLANCY: I want to get in Khalil Shikaki.

SMITH: ... it will take 25 years or more.

CLANCY: I just want to -- very briefly, Khalil Shikaki, what's the question you want to ask the Palestinians now?

SHIKAKI: The question I fear to ask the Palestinians now is what happens if Sharon does not dismantle the settlements and does not, indeed, freeze settlement construction.

CLANCY: All right.

SHIKAKI: I think this is the biggest fear. This is my biggest fear, how the public would respond to a negative development such as this one.

CLANCY: All right. We have to leave it there, gentlemen. Khalil Shikaki, Rafi Smith, and Steve Kull. Gentlemen, I want to thank all three of your bringing us the public view on the Middle East peace process today.

That has to be it for this edition of "Q&A."

We'll have more news in just a moment.

END

TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com