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Quest Means Business
China, India Join Global Slowdown Club; Referendum on the Euro
Aired December 15, 2011 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: No country is safe from the global slowdown. Tonight, China and India join the club.
A referendum on the euro. Ireland's euro minister tells me any vote boils down to the currency's survival.
And aisle, window, or networking? KLM plans to put a face to a seat.
I'm Richard Quest. I mean business.
Good evening.
Tonight we have glaring and worrying evidence that no economy is safe in the current crisis. Two countries whose growth we have long trusted, India and China, are now showing the strains of the crisis in Europe and the slowing global economy. Speaking a short time ago in Washington, the head of the IMF, the Managing Director Christine Lagarde, said there is no avoiding this new reality.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRISTINE LAGARDE, MANAGING DIRECTOR, IMF: The issues that we have in front of us now are not just a concern for the Eurozone, not just a concern for the European Union, not just a concern for the advanced economies. It is a concern for all economies because if there is one finding that is unchallenged, it is the vast interconnectedness between all economies. And there is no economy in the world, whether in low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries, or super advanced economies, that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only unfolding but escalating.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: It is a worrying thought. The contagion is spreading. At least the slow down and there are plenty of symptoms to look. Let's start first of all particularly with two of the countries that are of crucial importance. The growth priorities, according to the IMF, the 2011 forecast for China is 9 percent, India 7.5 percent. The Indian Finance Minister Mukherjee said India has to turn attention to reviving growth as quickly as possible. According to HSBC's China chief economist, growth is not Beijing's top concern, not inflation. These numbers look very impressive when seen from the sclerotic trans-Atlantic picture. They are not sufficient to bring down unemployment or to keep a rising middle-class in China and India.
And look at what is happening in the future. According to HSBC purchasing managers index on manufacturing is now under 50. That is a contraction. It is the latest number of a contraction in China. Whilst in India, if you look at the data this week, shows that industrial was down 5 percent in October year on year. It is the first fall in more than two years.
These engines of growth are what we had hoped was going to be pulling everybody along. So, back to what the policymakers are saying. The Indian Finance Minster Pranab Mukherjee says the sovereign debt crisis is at the heart of the problem. And both in India and in China, are slowing exports to Europe, which is a key market. You can see the numbers there, that gives you the picture.
So, let's put this into perspective. Joining me now to talk about it, Lord Bilimoria, the co-founder and chairman of Cobra Beer.
Good after-good evening to you.
Good evening.
QUEST: And from Washington Nigel Chalk, the IMF's mission into China, or at least on that side.
Let's start with you Nigel, in Washington. We know that China is slowing down and the reserve bank has taken measures, lowered ratios and all sorts of things. Are they doing enough to create a soft landing or do you fear it is going to be far harder than we think?
NIGEL CHALK, IMF MISSION CHIEF FOR CHINA: No, I think what we see right now is a soft landing. It is certainly getting softer than we thought it would be say six months ago. And most of that is really due to the situation in Europe. You are seeing the domestic drivers of growth in China. The consumption is doing pretty well. You have the retail sales going up around 17 percent a year. You have investment doing extremely well, very strong. And the real sort of dark spot on the horizon is really in the tradable sector. Exports are slowing, the trade surplus is shrinking. And that is taking a lot of the stimulus out of the economy. And largely that is really due to Europe. A quarter of Chinese goods are exported to Europe, so when Europe is sick it hits China.
QUEST: OK, Lord Bilimoria, the India situation slightly similar in it is obviously a slowdown else where, taking its effect. But India does have unique problems of its own. And some of it is related to the currency.
KARAN BILIMORIA, CO-FOUNDER, COBRA BEER: Well the India market, as such, reacted to the 2008 crisis very badly. I mean, everyone thought India is separate, insulated, de-linked, not at all. As Christine Lagarde said we are an integrated global economy now. What happens here in Europe affects India straight away. And India has exports to Europe-no where near as much as China, but India has been a consumption lead growth, quite separate from China's. India has problems, corruption has got to a tipping point.
QUEST: Are you concerned with India though, that the problems in the economy at the moment, at 7.5 percent growth, and with a currency that is weakening fast, and with all the other issues, that the situation is getting worse?
BILIMORIA: Well, there has also been the great disappointment about the FDI and retail.
QUEST: Right.
BILIMORIA: It was announced and then the government had to back track. We have been waiting for that for years. And the actual reforms in India, there haven't been that many in the last eight years. But yet, the Indian market has motted (ph) along. And there are some very good signals as well.
QUEST: So, Nigel, in Washington, when we factor in China into this equation, everybody has said, you know, plough the money into China, investments into China. I'm not asking you to give us investment advice.
(LAUGHTER)
But I am asking you are you concerned that the situation in China is going to get worse?
CHALK: Well, I certainly think that in the first couple of quarters of next year it will be quite difficult, particularly for the export sector in China. But I think in the end it is really the domestic story that is very persuasive in China. They have a very strong consumption growth, they have very good investment. They have taken a position where they actually want to slow the economy down. They are intentionally trying to slow the economy down and succeeding.
Now, of course, if the global situation worsens it is going to slow much more than they really want. But then they have a lot more policy room for maneuver than perhaps India does, for example. Inflation is coming down. They have a lot of fiscal space to-you know, relatively low government debt, a lot of fiscal space they can provide stimulus. They are in a much better position than many other countries in the world, I think, right now.
BILIMORIA: Well, I would say that India has got a lot going for it in that it is a democracy. It is a vibrant democracy. And also India has been pretty good in the banking crisis that took place. India wasn't affected that much. India hasn't opened up and it said our protectionist policies, you may call them protectionist, but the cautious policies have actually helped India. And I think there is a momentum in India that has built up. There is a consumer demand. There is a growing middle class; 300 million people. You can't turn that back. And no reform has been reverse in India. And again, India is not as susceptible to what is happening in Europe, where the euro quite frankly could disintegrate.
QUEST: To both of you, and we'll start with you, Lord Bilimoria, isn't the real problem here-and to you as well, Nigel-isn't the real problem here, that we are looking at India and China as engines of immediate economic growth that is going to pull the train of the rest of us at times of great problems. And what you are both saying is, these emerging markets have their own problems and we are expecting them to do more than they should.
BILIMORIA: Well, I always say-my favorite saying about India is some people fail because of, other people succeed in spite of. And in spite of all its challenges-
QUEST: But we are expecting more from India.
BILIMORIA: We are. But you can't have a country completely delinked. What is happening over here in Europe? If you think of what is happened the last five years. Sub-prime crisis, to the financial crisis, to the Great Recession, to sovereign debt crisis, to the euro crisis, the domino effect carries on.
QUEST: Nigel, in Washington, as we put this China question, I mean, I'll put my hands up. I am one of those people who's got me pension fund, you know, nicely locked between India, China, and a few other emerging markets. When I hear gentlemen like yourselves saying that this could be a problem for growth, it is worrying.
CHALK: But it is a problem of growth from the sense of growth coming down from 9 to 10 percent to, you know, 8, 8.5 percent, that sort of range. This is not a collapse in China. It is actually a really welcome slowdown. They had a-you know, if look back a year ago, they had hi inflation, they had a bubble brewing n the property market. They had an economy that looked like it could be overheating. So this is actually a relatively positive development. Now, I'm not saying China doesn't have a lot of domestic problems. They have a lot of distortions in the economy. Huge agenda of reform they need to do.
In terms of your question, how much they help the global economy. I think you have to remember that China is still relatively small. I mean, Chinese consumption I only a fraction of what U.S. or European consumption is. So, you know, China will help China. It will, perhaps, emerging Asia, but the idea that they could replace the drivers of growth you see from Europe and the United States. It is just unrealistic. They are just not big enough.
BILIMORIA: I agree. Even in India, 7.5 percent growth is still pretty good growth. And if you look at all the good things happening in India, a balanced economy, manufacturing is 25 percent of the economy of India. It is only 11 percent here in the U.K. It is a more balanced-and they want manufacturing to grow as well. Governance, you've got states like Bihar, where we have a joint venture, Molson (UNINTELLIGIBLE) Cobra. Bihar was a basket case six years ago, today Bihar has been turned around by Nitish Kumar and its government, and it is now a basket of opportunities.
So, there is, good governance makes a big difference. India, has a free press. Things are really moving ahead. There is a non-stop momentum in India that I don't think even a Eurozone crisis can derail.
QUEST: We have a non-stop momentum, but we have to stop our discussion there. Nigel, in Washington, we thank you, at the IMF. Lord Bilimoria, always wonderful to see you in London. Thank you for joining us.
Now, the major indices, across Asia, suffered heavy losses today. Take a look at the number. The SENSEX is at its lowest level this month; down 23 percent this year, the worst performer in the region. Shares in exporters fell in Tokyo because of the strengthening of yen.
(DESK BELL CHIMES)
To the Dow Jones industrials in New York. We are under 12,000 but we shouldn't get too excited by that, because we are up 82, which is nearly .07 of 1 percent. It is on course to snap a three session losing streak. It was a jobs report, first-time claims for jobless benefits, the lowest since 2008. So what we do see is the U.S. economy is picking up speed.
The fashion brand Michael Coors debuted on the shares. They are up around-this is what you call a great stag. Up around 20 percent. That is exactly what you want with an IPO, nice small gain, not too much. It means you priced it right, 20 percent seems about right.
A vote to decide on the future of the Eurozone; Ireland could soon be putting the new accord to the people. It's Europe minister tells me tonight that could be a referendum on the euro itself. QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Spain conducted a successful bond auction and that gave a boost to European stocks, which gained ground. The euro is coming back from its 11-month low. Spanish and Italian bonds are rallying. S&P has reviewed its ratings on 10 Spanish banks and applied is new ratings criteria. All remain on watch for a downgrade. But in this environment, with so much uncertainty, all the major bourses in Europe, they rose.
The European Fiscal Compact, agreed last week, could be finalized by the end of next month. The EU President Herman Von Rumpuy says a summit to work on the agreement will be held in late January or early February. The problem is what will that agreement reach and will some countries have to put it to a referendum of their people. If that happens, it could be near disaster. Earlier I spoke to Ireland's minister for European Affairs, who told me, if Ireland holds a referendum on the Fiscal Compact, it could become a vote on whether or not the country stays in the euro.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LUCINDA CREIGHTON, MINISTER, IRISH EUROPEAN AFFAIRS We are quite used to holding referendum in Ireland. We just had two referendums there. And just a few short weeks ago. So it is not something that we feared. Something that I think is good an important part of the democratic process.
And you know, if we determine after we have looked at the legal text that a referendum is required, then we will approach it with great enthusiasm and vigor. You know, it is quite clear to me Ireland had a very successful relationship with both the EU and particularly in the euro since we joined. And we want to continue that. We want to make it stronger. And we want to see our currency emerge from this crisis so we will certainly be campaigning with great vigor, if a referendum is indeed held.
QUEST: But do you fear that such a referendum cold become a vote on a wider issue? Whether that is framed in the question or not, eventually, somebody wants to shove in the words, do we stay in our out?
CREIGHTON: Well, look, I mean, referendums as we know, in all member states, you know, have the capacity to turn into a-for example a referendum on the performance of the government or on, you know, more localized issues that often don't have a whole lot to do with the subject matter. I think it is up to those of us who would be advocating a yes vote to ensure that we keep the public debate focused on the issues at hand. And in essence it is about whether we want the euro to survive, whether we want Ireland to continue to be a part of the currency zone. And that is essentially what it will boil down to, and you now-I mean, if people don't like referendums to be defined in those narrow terms, but I think that is, you know, in reality that is the question that we'll face.
QUEST: So let's be clear about this. And I know we are some months away, but that is going to be the issue, if and when this would be put to the Irish people.
CREIGHTON: I certainly think it will be predominant theme. Because, I mean, what was agreed at the council last week-which as I say, has yet to be fleshed out into to a legal text-you know, was a set of rules of engagement, if you like, for members of the Eurozone. In particular, in terms of how we cooperate and coordinate on the preparation and implementation of a national budget, but they are all very directly connected to the survival of our currency. So, I mean, again, it comes back to that. That is the question that is on the table for us right now and would potentially be on the table if such a referendum happened.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
QUEST: That is, of course, a frightening prospect for many people in the Eurozone. The idea that Ireland could end up with a referendum on euro membership.
The war of words between Creighton, Britain and France has deepened. The governor of the French Central Bank says the U.K. is more deserving of a downgrade than France.
Christian Noyer told a French newspaper, Britain lags behind on debt, deficit, and growth and credit, and has higher inflation that France. He said, delay (ph) with the big credit ratings agencies as incomprehensible and irrational. His attacks follow French media report that President Sarkozy called the British Prime Minister David Cameron an obstinate kid, over his EU summit veto. The president of the European Central Bank is warning he won't help governments which won't help themselves.
Mario Draghi says there will be no external savior for debt-ridden economies. Again, he ruled out suggest the bank might embark on a bigger bond buying program and become the lender of last resort to the government.
The head of Danish transport giant, DSV, says Europe needs to stop overspending, trim the head count, and get a grip on costs, just like he did in his business. Jens Bjorn Anderson is also urging Europe's leaders to overlook their differences and pull together.
"MARKETPLACE EUROPE's" Juliet Mann saw him at the headquarters in Copenhagen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JULIET MANN, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: What about the single currency? Obviously, you are a Danish company, so shadow the euro. You are not quite in there. Bet you are glad you're not?
JENS BJORN ANDERSON, CEO, DSV: We are de facto in the euro. Our currency is very, very closely linked to the euro, but I actually do believe that Denmark is an important part of Europe. I don't personally like the fact that we are not a full-blown member of Europe. I think that if the European Union and the countries of Europe, they need to face up to the challenges that we are being met with from the Far East. We need to stick together.
We cannot win this battle if we are individual countries fighting in the trade with countries like China and India. We need to get together. So I think there is only one way forward for the European countries and that they need to stick together. Even though it is going to be probably painful in the short-term, but long-term it is the right thing to do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: The full interview with Jens Bjorn Anderson can be seen on "MARKETPLACE EUROPE". It is in half an hour from now.
When you book a seat onboard an aircraft many of us look forward to meeting a stranger in the window, or the aisle. Now KLM are writing Facebook profiles for their seating plan. If you like what you see, you can have the perfect neighbor, in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: The choice used to be simple. Did you want a window, and upstairs, and aisle, first, business or near the back. Now KLM is planning to let you look at someone's Facebook or LinkedIn profile before you decide which seat you want because you might be sitting next to them on a flight. From early next year-this is extraordinary when I heard this, and I didn't even believe it was true until I read about it.
Passengers will be able to choose to display their personal information on KLM's seating plan. The airline says it is meant for networking rather than dating. So, bearing in mind that you and I have been talking so much about Eurozone and Euro summits, let's show you how this might work in reality.
Imagine you are booking a flight from Brussels to New York. And this is the seating plan. Now all the red seats have been taken. The green ones are the ones that are available. And the flyers have signed their Facebook profiles and LinkedIn pages. Now, we want to sit near the front, so say 37, there is a free seat here. Who is in the window?
Oh, no, no, no. But who is in the aisle? Oh, no, horror. Being stuck between "Misers. "Merkozy"? No, no, no. Let's go a little further back. Let's go right to the back of the plane. Only one gentleman, apparently is sitting here. David Cameron, near the toilets? No.
Ah, now there is the best seat on the plane, the emergency exit. Plenty of extra leg room. Who is sitting here? Oh, oh, not surprising Mario Draghi, he's very much going to be in there. Of course, you may want to-he's the man with the money, so he has extra leg room.
You may, of course, want to know who is going to be in Seat 1A. Ah, as you might expect, the proper place, right at the front of the plane.
You get the idea. Imagine you could actually choose where you are going to sit. I don't need Facebook to choose my seating companion. Because if I had a choice it would be Simon Calder.
(LAUGHTER)
We make fun there. But what do you think of this idea of allowing people to know who is sitting next to them?
SIMON CALDER, SENIOR TRAVEL EDITOR, "THE INDEPENDENT": I think it is outrageous. Look, I think social media, oh, great in terms of air transport. For example, in the United Kingdom and Northern Europe a year ago you were reporting on the appalling snowstorms which closed so much. And it was Twitter, it was social media that were helping people understand what was going on. I also love the fact that when you are traveling by air you meet all kinds of people from outside your comfort zone. But I don't think the two should ever be put together.
QUEST: Oh, come on! How nice to be able to know who are going to be sitting with. You could be doing a bit of research on the person.
CALDER: Well, you could do, and of course there might even be a bidding war if people get to hear if Richard Quest is traveling in Seat 1A.
(LAUGHTER)
CALDER: They of course, will want to be in Seat 1B. However, I think it is much, much more likely that you will find that almost a predatory element, some kind of in-flight stalking, or worse, and probably more likely, the idea that you will be stuck next to a crashing bore on your flight from Amsterdam to Santiago de Chile; 14 hours next to somebody who seems intent on drinking the plane dry. So, I love the random encounters you have. I've flown on Ryan Air recently. I was sitting next to a pilot- not the pilot, a pilot.
(LAUGHTER)
CALDER: And it was terrific. He talked me through the entire flight, so.
QUEST: Now, you say that there is already some experiments within this idea?
CALDER: Yes, Malaysia airlines have been doing something quite smart, which is a system called MHBuddy (ph). And it is connected with Facebook and basically the idea is that you use this system and work out with any of your friends happen to be traveling on the same flight as you. But it these are proper Facebook friends, as opposed to just opting in to the KLM system, saying, well, here I am. I'm going to find out all about me before you decide you want to share the journey with me.
QUEST: And flyer Talk, which you will be familiar with, the online, they are probably the largest online grouping. They always-the fly talkers often meet up at airports.
CALDER: Ah, but that his a different thing.
QUEST: But I am saying, so a community can build up of like minded individuals.
CALDER: Oh, most certainly but they would see themselves as professional flyers, who need to sit and talk about the best frequent flyer program, rather than just sitting there making small talk with a perfect stranger, who is wondering whether it is a good idea that they let all their details be made public.
QUEST: Could you imagine anything worse than for some poor traveler to be stuck between you and me?
(LAUGHTER)
QUEST: As we jabber on for 12 hours about the delights?
CALDER: Well, of course the best person to have sitting next to you is a no-show. That gives you lots more room to stretch out and enjoy the flight.
QUEST: Not too often, these days. Simon, wonderful to see you. Many, many hours of safe flying next year.
Now, when we come back in a moment, Russia says it wants stability in the Eurozone. It is willing to put its money where its mouth is; the latest on Russia's offer of a helping hand. QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, good evening.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Hello, I'm Richard Quest.
More QUEST MEANS BUSINESS in a moment.
This is CNN. On this network, the news always comes first.
The United States has officially ended its war in Iraq. The U.S. flag of command was lowered in Baghdad to mark the end of military operations there. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said it was time for Iraq to look forward. Since the war began in 2003, nearly 4,500 American troops have been killed, as well as countless more Iraqis.
U.S. military officials now admit the drone recovered by Iranian authorities was looking for suspected nuclear sites in Iran. The unmanned U.S. drone was recovered last week after it crashed on Iranian soil. Military sources have now told CNN it was, indeed, on a surveillance mission. Officials had previously said the drone merely veered off course while patrolling Afghanistan.
The group, Human Rights Watch, is accusing the Syrian regime of crimes against humanity. Its new report includes statements from dozens of military defectors who say they were ordered to squash anti-government protests.
On a separate note, Canada is urging its citizens to voluntarily evacuate Syria, saying it's just too dangerous.
The former French president, Jacques Chirac, has been found guilty of corruption and been given a suspended jail sentence. The 79 -year-old was convicted of breaching trust, misappropriation of public funds and using his influence illegally during his time as the mayor of Paris. It's uncertain whether he will appeal against the verdict.
Russia could offer up to $2 billion in aid to help stabilize Europe's economy. The chief economic aide to the Russian president says Russia is already committed to providing $10 billion through the IMF and it could offer more money.
There was a two day meeting of the Russia-E.U. summit. And President Medvedev said he wants the EU preserved as a powerful political and economic force.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DMITRY MEDVEDEV, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): We will abide by all the commitments, being the participant of the IMF and we are ready to invest the necessary financial means to back the European economy and the Eurozone. We're ready to look at and consider other measures of support.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: The Russian prime minister also addressed the nation today. He talked about recent allegations of election fraud. That Russian prime minister is, of course, Vladimir Putin, whose strength is much greater than his title suggests.
Phil Black is our correspondent in Moscow and joins me there.
Before we get to President Putin, let's just stick with -- it's a bit of a rum business, isn't it, when the Eurozone's Saviour comes from Russia?
PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, indeed, Richard. It was a -- as you heard there from Dmitry Medvedev, it was a well-stated, strongly worded intention to assist the Eurozone. But not a lot of -- not a lot of detail there from the Russian president. He talked about all financial means and considering other possible measures. The reason for all of this, of course, is, as he said, Russia's huge interest, its huge economic stake in the Eurozone, not the least of which the fact that 41 percent of its currency reserves are in euros.
So no detail from the president himself, despite those strong words. But his advisers today were talking about, as you say, around $20 million through the IMF -- Richard.
QUEST: All right, now, let's so -- let's get straight to the prime minister, or at least President Putin, perhaps being a little previous. Prime Minister Putin answering questions -- it's his annual Q&A session. But, of course, it's not just anybody. He had to deal with the protests.
BLACK: Yes, indeed. This is the 10th one of these that he's done, Richard. And in that sense, it was unprecedented, because the events that have been taking place in this country over the last week or so have been unprecedented for as long as he has been the paramount leader here.
He was asked uncomfortable questions about the protests, about democracy, about concerns over election fraud, corruption, these sorts of things. Experienced Russian watchers say that in all of the many chat shows that Prime Minister Putin has been holding in this country over the last decade or so, he hasn't had to face these sorts of questions before. It's usually a lot softer, a lot more complementary through the process.
And he walked a very delicate line. And he wants -- he seemed to be very careful not to criticize the protesters themselves on the streets, but to discuss their grievances.
But on the other hand, he was often dismissive or quite scathing of the organized opposition leaders, the people who have really been trying to drive this protest movement and make political gains through the process.
Here's a little of what he had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, COURTESY RUSSIA 1)
VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRIME MINISTER (through translator): People are not happy with the government.
Well, what kind of government do they want?
This kind of government?
I think people who came to the square -- I actually know that they paid some young people to attend this rally and there is nothing wrong with that. It is OK for young people to make some money. But in the whole, I don't like it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLACK: So he says that some of those protesters of the tens of thousands that were on the streets of Moscow last weekend were paid. We didn't see or hear any evidence of that, but it should be pointed out that the same allegation is often made against protesters who are bussed out to turn up for his own United Russia Party's rallies as well -- Richard.
QUEST: Phil, we'll talk about this more in the days and weeks ahead.
Phil Black, our correspondent in Moscow.
They say football is the beautiful game. American football is a billionaires' game. U.S. networks are spending huge sums for the rights to the NFL, in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Three television networks in the U.S. are reportedly spending up to $28 billion for the right to screen American football games. The U.S. won't pay a penny. It makes the NFL, the National Football League, rights the most expensive in the world.
Our resident football fanatic, Jim Boulden, joins us now.
Twenty-eight billion...
JIM BOULDEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Um.
QUEST: -- it's a lot of money, but it is over a long period of time.
BOULDEN: It's a nine year extension to the contract. But it is a 66 percent increase in what they were paying for the current contract. And it's a -- it's an extremely popular sport in America, the highest ratings you can get during the fall season for these games. And it's about it -- as -- as it escalates over the time, you'll get an average of $3.1 billion a year for this contract.
And so turns fight like tooth and nail to get this contract.
QUEST: So who's got it?
I'm -- who's got it or...
BOULDEN: Well, you're talking about Fox.
QUEST: Yes.
BOULDEN: A big company, of course. You're talking about CBS and you're talking about NBC, which is Comcast and ABC/Disney has the ESPN game, which is Monday night.
So all the big players are in there to get a slice of this. And they fight to get different. So you get Thursday night games now, Sunday games, Sunday night games and Monday night games.
And it's interesting, I think we can compare this to the Premier League here, which is considered the most popular league in the world. Because NFL is, in the U.S., of course, and a little bit here in the U.K., you can watch it. But the EPL is much, much smaller. But it also has a great amount of revenue, as you see there. Sky basically ESPN, $2.7 billion for three years. That's just domestic live rights. Of course, they can sell them overseas, as well.
We thought we'd compare it to the Olympics there, which is that this is the NBC Olympics.
QUEST: Right.
BOULDEN: And $4.4 billion to get it through 2020. But they don't necessarily make money on the Olympics at NBC. They -- they do lose sometimes.
QUEST: So how are they going to pay for this?
BOULDEN: It's very simple. The NFL is free to air, so you're talking about advertising.
QUEST: Oh, advertising.
BOULDEN: And I -- I love these statistics for the advertising. If you were to advertise a 30 second commercial, NBC, in the evening on Sunday, $339,000 for that.
QUEST: Oh.
BOULDEN: And if the Super Bowl...
QUEST: Oh, well...
BOULDEN: -- between $2.5 and $2.8 million for 30 seconds.
QUEST: So a 30 second spot...
BOULDEN: Um.
QUEST: -- so I -- I was writing this down, because I'm trying to work out -- well, you can probably get a 30 second spot on QUEST MEANS BUSINESS for (INAUDIBLE).
BOULDEN: Three hundred and thirty-nine thousand dollars.
QUEST: Three hundred and thirty-nine thousand.
BOULDEN: Yes.
QUEST: That's fair. I'll share it with you, Jim. I'll share it with you. That's a lot of money.
BOULDEN: It is.
QUEST: Is it worth it?
BOULDEN: Oh, in America, absolutely, it's worth it. It is, by far, the biggest sport. Now, the interesting thing about the EPL here in the U.K., of course, it's not a...
QUEST: The English Premier League.
BOULDEN: -- it's not about necessarily commercials. It's about people having to buy the -- the satellite dish.
QUEST: Right.
BOULDEN: People having to pay for cable. So there, a subscription. But the NFL is very pleased to keep saying in their press release that this is free to air, the only free to air sport to have every single game...
QUEST: It's not free to air. This...
BOULDEN: Well...
QUEST: It's free to air in the sense that you don't have to pay subscriptions.
BOULDEN: It...
QUEST: But you have to pay for your cable set to start with and you have to pay for the products, anyway.
BOULDEN: Oh, in the U.S., absolutely.
QUEST: Yes.
BOULDEN: If you want to bet -- if you want really good, you pay for the satellite dish, as well.
QUEST: There you are. You see we'll get to it in 40 seconds.
(LAUGHTER)
If Guillermo is with us, then we are worth $340,000 for 30 seconds, if you've got a half decent weather forecast for us.
GUILLERMO ARDUINO, ATS METEOROLOGIST: My god. That's pocket money for you, I'm sure. But for me, it's a lot of money.
So we have to decide on the bet for tomorrow. I'm talking about the snow for London. The models keep saying that it is going to snow. Now, I was talking to Taylor (ph) and Brandon (ph) behind the scenes and they think we're going to see some flurries. So we are chickening out a little bit right now, because if you see also here on the map, we see some coming close, but we think, Richard, that you're going to see some flakes falling down, but nothing is going to stay on the ground.
So winds along with it. Look at the airports. If you are going to any of these airports, it's going to be a bumpy ride. Don't get scared because we're not posting significant delays. But it's going to be bumpy. So you're going to see the plane swaying from one side to the other of the runway.
But even Copenhagen, Munich -- and I mean this -- this low pressure center that we have had here is now getting all the way to Rome with an associated front. And this is a track. That's why it brought so much disruption in terms of winds and also storms, especially to the south. You see the strongest are closest to the path of the low pressure center. And we're seeing a lot of snow, as well.
Anywhere in Germany, in the French, Italian, Swiss, German, Austrian Alps, we are going to see more snow falling in here.
Let me go back to London. It's five degrees right now. Eleven kilometers per hour, not bad. The winds are OK. And it's clear, clear, you know, a little bit cloudy. And we see some mixed precipitation here in Southwest England already. And then everything else is rain.
This compared to the map that we had days ago, with all the snow in Scotland, is a piece of cake. It's easy.
So this is a summary of the situation. You see how the system goes all the way down after bringing the winds into Rome. Now, it's going to do the same in the Balkan Peninsula. So Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, later on into Turkey, winds in the Baltics, it's going to be blustery. You know, we are -- it's going to be bad. And then the storms are continuing over here.
I mean the -- the same story all over again. And the cold air is here to stay.
QUEST: All right. Guillermo, we thank you for that.
ARDUINO: Thank you.
QUEST: And that is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS for tonight.
I'm Richard Quest in London.
Whatever you're up to in the hours ahead, I do hope it's profitable.
"MARKETPLACE EUROPE" next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
JULIET MANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Welcome to MARKETPLACE EUROPE.
I'm Juliet Mann in Denmark, a gateway to trade linking people, goods and services all across Northern Europe.
This week, we show how the transport sector gives a steer on how Europe's economy is faring as a whole. Study transport and you get the big picture -- where goods are coming from, where they're going to, how much is traded here in Europe compared to what gets dispatched to markets overseas.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MANN (voice-over): I talked to the CEO of one of Europe's biggest transport and logistics companies, DSV, about the transport sector as an economic indicator and introducing the Toll Index, how two academics in Germany are interpreting transport statistics to get a real time view of industrial production.
(on camera): In this week's FaceTime, I speak to Jens Bjorn Andersen, CEO of DSV, a company that started out as a small Danish firm but has grown into a global player on the transport scene. He says that while the transport sector is an indicator of the health of the European economy, he's made it through the downturn and is growing.
How far do you think that the transport sector gives a real clue as to what's going on in the economy as a whole?
JENS BJORN ANDERSEN, CEO, DSV: We are a -- a good indicator, there's no doubt about that. People regard us as one of the first companies who would actually feel a certain development in -- in the world economy. And we saw that, also, during the last downturn in 2008 and 09, where after Q3 2008, we actually saw a rapid decline in the transport volume and the -- the downturn in the whole world economy was probably seen first in -- in the transport companies.
So it's -- it's correct, we are a good indicator of this.
MANN: But yet you say you've been doing well.
ANDERSEN: Yes. So far so good. And we actually had to pinch ourselves in the arm a little bit, because we were actually a little bit surprised. But it is mainly also due to the fact that it has been possible for us to take some market share. We are in a very, very fragmented industry, where even the very large players, like DSV, we only have a very small market share. And it has been possible for us to grow faster than the market, you can say.
But overall, the -- the transfer volumes have developed stable, I would say, so far in 2011.
MANN: What do you think are the main challenges out there for -- for companies like you?
You've mentioned it's -- it's tricky to -- to build market share quickly.
ANDERSEN: Yes.
MANN: But what are the main challenges, particularly in these tough economic times?
ANDERSEN: It's -- it's a lot of to do with the macro environment. It's -- it's a tough environment we're in right now. Europe is under pressure. There's no doubt about that. That will -- the political uncertainty, you can say, that we see in Europe, will filter through into the real economy. The consumers are very cautious. We have seen that in Denmark, where consumer spending is at the lowest now in the last five years. And, of course, if the consumers do not spend, if they do not buy flat screen TVs up to Christmas now, there will be less for a transportation company like DSV to transport.
MANN: It sounds like you've got a conflict here between your head and your heart.
Are you giving up on Europe?
ANDERSEN: We're not giving up on Europe. We can't do that. We are Danish and we are European. And we hope very much that -- that we, as a united Europe, will take up the challenge and that Europe will once again show its strength. We have a lot of knowledge. We have a lot of strong size in Europe. And I'm sure if we can get this monetary crisis solved, then Europe will once again show its true value, you can say.
MANN: What about the single currency?
Obviously, you're a Danish company, so you -- you shadow the euro, but you're -- you're not quite in there. I bet you're glad you're not.
ANDERSEN: We are put de facto in the euro. Our currency is very, very closely linked to the euro. But I actually do believe that -- that Denmark is a -- is a big and an important part of -- of Europe. I don't personally like the fact that we are not a full blown member of Europe. I think that if the European Union and the countries in Europe, they need to face up to the challenges that we are being met with from the Far East. We need to stick together. We cannot win this battle if we are individual countries fighting in the trade with -- with countries like China and India. We need to get together.
So I think there's only one forward -- way forward for the European countries and that is to stick together, even though it's going to be probably painful in the -- in the short-term, but long-term, it is the right thing to do.
MANN: But do you think, then, when Denmark takes over the E.U. presidency next year, that that Scandinavian feel might change the mood in the European Union?
ANDERSEN: I think, unfortunately, that we need more than just our Scandinavian mood to change the whole atmosphere in Europe. But I hope that we can influence it, also, with the -- the management style that -- that we bring on from Scandinavia. We think that -- I don't know if it's unique, but we cherish it very much. It's something that we -- we think about. And often when we travel abroad, we get a little bit uncomfortable with the management style and also with the way that we are met by our own employees. It's -- it's not natural for us.
So I hope that that can influence the mood and -- and hopefully, our new prime minister, she will do a good job. I'm sure she will. And -- and she can bring a little bit more positivity into -- to Europe.
MANN: Thank you very much.
ANDERSEN: Thank you.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
MANN: Jens Bjorn Andersen of DSV.
The E.U. recognizes the relationship between transport and economic performance. It compiles an annual study of the volume of freight transport relative to the GDP of each of its 27 member countries.
Take a look at this week's Europe By Numbers.
The 27 E.U. countries recorded the greatest drop in volume in inland freight transport relative to GDP between 2006 and 2009, dropping 8.8 percent. France dropped 18.5 percent, the U.K., by 15.1 percent and Germany by 7.1 percent. Those figures reflect the impact of the financial crisis of 2008.
Coming up, could tracking truckers passing through toll booths like these tell us more about the health of the economy?
Join me after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MANN: Welcome back to MARKETPLACE EUROPE in Copenhagen.
Now, this is the international headquarters of Maersk. You've probably heard of them, one of the largest shipping companies in the world.
You know, every 15 minutes, one of their vessels makes a port call somewhere around the globe.
If you were to add up all the container loads of goods from ships and trucks, would it paint a picture of the health of the global economy?
Two academics have made Germany and the German roads their starting point.
Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MANN (voice-over): These two Bonn-based academics have it all mapped out -- tracking truck drivers who are going places with container loads of goods. Their Toll Index gives a snapshot of industrial production in Europe's biggest economy now, without waiting weeks or months for official data to be released.
Here's how it works. Most heavy vehicles in Germany have GPS technology on board, linking them up to a satellite system designed to collect road tolls.
DR. KLAUS ZIMMERMANN, DIRECTOR, IZA: The toll collector, they use it to bill people and to get money for the state. So it just finances our roads and the public activity. However, one can use this data usefully to help solving our early forecasting problems. That's why we are the first who have proposed to -- to use this for forecasting economic activity.
MANN: What they get is a steer on real time production rates as goods are shipped about. They considered river and rail transport, too, but found the roads play the biggest role.
DR. NIKOS ASKITAS, CTO OF IZA: One is -- is kilometers driven and trips made and you want to see the crossing of borders inwards and outwards. And you want to then empirically try to relate that with some kind of economic indicator of significance.
MANN: Official figures show German industrial production rose more than expected in October. And that tallies with the Toll Index results. There are a few dents in the body work. The Index can't separate who's exporting to Germany from who's just passing through. But it does give policymakers a clue to what's happening to the economy now without looking in the rearview mirror.
It's all there in the numbers. As long as Europe's transport hubs remain industrious, we're on the road to recovery.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
MANN: So keep your eyes on the road and the transport sector. They might tell you and your business more than you think.
That's it for MARKETPLACE EUROPE in Copenhagen.
I'm Juliet Mann.
Join us next week.
Goodbye.
END
