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Quest Means Business
Investigators Confirm Plane Debris From MH370; Victim's Families React; Dow Finishes Flat; Greek PM Says Debt Deal is Near; Greek Bank Shares Fall Again; Earnings Boost European Markets
Aired August 05, 2015 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[15:59:55] (NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE CLOSING BELL)
RICHARD QUEST, HOST: Good gains on the market in the earlier part of the session evaporated as the day went on, and a small loss at the close as
Macquarie closes the day.
(GAVEL POUNDS)
QUEST: He looked like a judge about to sentence somebody to a very nasty sentence, on Wednesday, it's the 5th of August.
Tonight, 500 days of searching, and now, the breakthrough. Malaysia confirms that this flaperon is, indeed, from MH370.
Distraught and in disbelief. Families of those onboard are told the news via text.
And now, the search continues, as investigators hope for more discovery to come.
I'm Richard Quest in New York, and I mean business.
Good evening. The news that many had feared. After 17 agonizing months, we finally have the somber confirmation that the debris discovered
last week in the Indian Ocean does, indeed, belong to Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370. A short time ago, the Malaysian prime minister, Najib Razak,
said it had been, in his words, "conclusively confirmed" the debris was from the missing plane.
The prosecutors in Paris said the flaperon, which was washed up on the French island of Reunion, matched the specifications provided by Malaysia
Airlines. It is a crucial first discovery. No other part of the plane has been found, let alone identified since it disappeared 515 days ago.
It fell to the Malaysia prime minister, Najib Razak, to break the news to the world in the small hours of the morning in Kuala Lumpur.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NAJIB RAZAK, PRIME MINISTER OF MALAYSIA: It is with a very heavy heart that I must tell you that an international team of experts have
conclusively confirmed that the aircraft debris found on Reunion island is, indeed, from MH370. We now have physical evidence that, as I announced on
24th March last year, Flight MH370 tragically ended in the southern Indian Ocean.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: And this, of course, is the debris in question, a Boeing 777 flaperon. It's a piece of the wing, which washed up on Reunion island in
the western Indian Ocean. The French experts are planning further tests on Thursday, and the French prosecutor wouldn't go as far as the Malaysian
prime minister. He still sounded confident about where the part had come from.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SERGE MACKOWIAK, PARIS PROSECUTOR (through translator): There is a very strong supposition that the flaperon found on the beach of the island
of Reunion on the 29th of July actually does belong to the Boeing 777 of Flight MH370, which disappeared on the 8th of March, 2014, for two reasons.
The design -- the Boeing design experts confirmed that this flaperon was, for technical reasons, quite obviously a Boeing 777 flaperon, and
secondly, the representatives of the company of the Malaysian Airlines company informed of us elements with regard to the specifications, the
technical specifications of the MH370 flight.
And we were able, as a result of this, to compare this information with the flaperon of MH370 in line with the common characteristics.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: It nearly took investigators in Toulouse a few hours before they decided they could say with almost complete certainty it was the
plane. Saima Mohsin is there for us in France, joins me now. Saima, do we know what those elements of the specifications of the MH370 flight to which
he was referring, do we know what he means?
SAIMA MOHSIN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You know, Richard, he was very scarce in terms of information, not quite going as far in detail
as we were expecting, to be honest. We were told that they would release a statement this evening. We were told he would let us know exactly what
went on inside this lab, but they didn't go into the details.
[16:05:00] We know, of course, that there are certain types of paints that are often used that are committed to a particular aircraft. But he
didn't say, and I wouldn't like to speculate.
What was very interesting as well is what you pointed out, was a different tone between the prime minister and the French prosecutor. A lot
of caution, Richard, still being applied, even though he says that they strongly suppose this does belong to MH370. Richard?
QUEST: That caution, is it prosecutor's caution, or is there doubt?
MOHSIN: Yes, you're right, there is, of course, a manslaughter case which has been launched here in France because of the four French nationals
onboard Flight MH370, their families launching that case should hijacking or terrorism be involved, and yes, there seems to be a certain amount.
But sources have told CNN that Boeing and others weren't really expecting that the Malaysian contingent to go ahead and make such a
definitive, conclusive statement. But you can just imagine the pressure that the Malaysians were under. They wanted to deliver to the families
that were waiting, albeit through a text message for some.
We thought that when they did that last time, they may not do it again, but eventually, we did have that press conference with Prime
Minister Najib Razak, and I guess they just felt that they knew enough to go ahead and say it. But as you say, there are more tests to come.
We now know that as far as the Malaysians are concerned definitively and the French are concerned strongly, this belongs, this flaperon belongs
to MH370. The questions now have to be asked, how did the plane go down? Those tests in days and weeks to come should tell us more, Richard, of
course. But the "why" will have to remain with the flight data recorder. Richard?
QUEST: Does it all become more confused, if that were possible? Because all thought the investigation is being held, the Annex 13
investigation, is being held by the Malaysians, because the flaperon was found on French territory, the French are now involved. So, I'm wondering,
who has primacy here?
MOHSIN: Yes, that's a really good question. And tonight's performances on these press conferences would tell you that nobody's really
sure who takes priority in releasing this information. And it does add to the confusion, not least for the passengers' families.
We've been speaking to a number of them over the past hour since those statements were made, and a lot of them saying, "We're just so confused
still." Because of course, Richard, we weren't even sure if we attach that flaperon to MH370, this would bring closure for them. A lot of them saying
until they found the remains of their loved ones, they wouldn't be satisfied.
And of course, the French saying they're not quite sure yet, and the Malaysians saying we are sure, just adds to both the confusion and the lack
of closure for the passengers' families. But going forward, of course, the French will have to be involved because, as I say, of this manslaughter
investigation. Richard?
QUEST: Thank you very much, Saima Mohsin joining us from France.
And if you want to know what we're talking about, of course, you'll be aware, join me at the super screen and you'll see. This is the part that
we are referring to.
It is the flaperon, and if you look at the various different aspects of it, you can see the barnacles, you can see the shells, you can see all
different parts of marine life, which reveal -- they have -- if I take to this particular -- if I take you to the rear of the flaperon, you'll see
very much this jagged edge, upon which these -- this various sea life has started to grow.
And the barnacles reveal where the metal broke away. And what, of course, this tells the experts is if you look at the barnacles and you look
and see where the metal is not twisted, it does suggest the flaperon may not have been deployed at the time. That's one way of looking at it.
The other one, of course, is just simply to look at the front. Take a look at the front section, and you see that it is fairly -- and I use that
term advisedly -- fairly unspoiled, fairly undamaged, whereas the rear section has got quite a lot of damage to it.
Peter Goelz is the former managing director of the US National Transportation -- the NTSB. Peter, good to hear you, sir. I don't want to
get too much into the semantics of the Malaysians saying "conclusively," the others saying supposition. As an investigator yourself, are you
confident?
PETER GOELZ, FORMER MANAGING DIRECTOR, US NTSB: I am confident that this is the piece. I think what you had was, this is a Malaysian
investigation, it is a Malaysian-Chinese tragedy.
[16:10:00] I think if the Malaysians had had their wherewithal, they would've liked the piece to have been shipped to Australia, where they've
already worked out a good relationship. Now, the French are involved. The last thing the prime minister was going to do was to turn over any
significant announcement to the French. This is his tragedy. He wants to move on. It was simply a little bit of internal politics.
QUEST: Now, the -- let's just talk briefly, because there's a man who -- and you and I spoke last week, and you gave me some very good context
about how you tell the families. Peter, we know that they were told today by e-mail and text about -- that this had happened. And of course, one
initially bristles at that form of communication.
But I ask you, sir, 16 months on, with 239 families dispersed around the world, and you want to make sure it doesn't leak before everybody
knows, how do you do it otherwise?
GOELZ: No, your hands are tied. And you try to keep in communication with families. And remember, we're not talking about just a family group.
These are extended families. And you try and identify with them, what's the best way to reach you? And you explain, listen, we want you to know it
first, and if that's most important, then we may have to do it in this way.
So, I don't hold the Malaysians up to any criticism for sending text messages out. What's most important is family members get the information
as quickly as humanly possible.
QUEST: And so, sir, we come to the age question. Where is the plane, and does this tell us anything about it? And I think I know your answer to
both of those questions, but I'm going to give you the opportunity, sir.
GOELZ: Well, I think this does confirm that the plane went into the water somewhere in the South Asian -- probably along the arc where we've
been looking for. Other than that, it doesn't tell us any more. It doesn't speed up the search. It doesn't tell us why the plane crashed.
We're a little step closer in that we've finally put to bed any resemblance that the plane was somewhere else. It crashed in the water,
it's a tragedy, the investigation goes on.
QUEST: Peter, we're lucky to have you with us tonight. Thank you, sir, for helping us understand --
GOELZ: Thank you.
QUEST: -- what's happening. Thank you. Now, throughout it all, you heard me talking to Peter about the families. Well, the families and crew
have enjoyed agonizing waits for answers. We're going to look at the reaction to today's news, and consider the fact and the method by which
they were told. Maybe that was quite simply the only way to ensure they didn't hear it on the television first.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Few are more desperate for answers than the families of those onboard, the 239 passengers and crew. Now, in the -- in a statement,
Malaysian Airlines said that the families of the passengers had been notified and said they were hoping for more discoveries.
"This is, indeed, a major breakthrough for us in resolving the disappearance of MH370. We expect and hope that there would be more
objects to be found which would help to resolve this mystery," is how they put it out in a statement.
[16:15:08] CNN's Will Ripley has been following the families' reaction to today's news. It's late at night in Beijing, and Will joins me
now.
WILL RIPLEY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Richard. Two of the family members just came by, and I spoke with them, and we've also been
communicating with several via social media.
All of them are expressing disbelief, two family members specifically saying they frankly just don't believe this news, and two others, who I
just spoke to here, saying that they feel it was irresponsible for Malaysia Airlines to put out the statement that they did.
They also feel it was irresponsible for the Malaysian prime minister to say what he did on live television, considering that the French
investigators did not go so far, the French prosecutor did not go so far as to say that the flaperon was definitively from the plane.
They say until there's 100 percent confirmation, there shouldn't be a statement. They think that the Malaysian authorities are trying to resolve
this issue for themselves and not for the families, Richard.
QUEST: But here's the point, Will. I mean, and I don't want in any shape -- it's going to sound cruel, the way I'm going to put it, but the
families will never be content until there is remains of plane and others found in the ocean or wherever.
RIPLEY: That's absolutely right. And I've had several family members that I've spoken to say that to me, that they are not willing to accept
that their family members are gone until they have remains, until they have physical proof.
Some feel that it would be disrespectful to their family members to accept that they're gone without a body, without evidence. And so they are
going to continue to hold on to any hope that perhaps, somehow, somebody survived, even though the evidence continues to show that that is
practically impossible, if not impossible. Yet, people still are trying to believe, they want to believe.
QUEST: I want to put in context this business of letting the families know by text. I don't know whether you heard my discussion with Peter
Goelz a moment ago, that where you have so many dispersed relatives, family members, and you want to try and make sure they hear it before an official
announcement, and time is short, what are the families saying about that?
RIPLEY: Well, we know that the message was sent out in a number of different ways. We've spoken with family members who received a mass text
message. Others received a phone call. One was a robo call, a recorded message, but then there are also family members in France who say they
received a phone call from the Malaysian embassy, and it was actually a person who called them.
So, it seems as if the information was -- they tried to get it out as quickly as possible. Family members don't seem to have a problem with the
methods for the distribution of the information. They understand that ahead of the prime minister's statement, they did want to notify families,
even though in some cases, it was just a few minutes.
They have a problem with the fact that the message was put out at all. They have a problem with the prime minister's statement definitively saying
that this piece of the wing was from MH370, because many simply don't believe it.
QUEST: Will Ripley, who is in Beijing for us this evening, Will, thank you.
Greece is trying to strike a deal to cement its place in the eurozone. The prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, says it's close, and we're going to
talk the man who invested nearly $2 billion in Greece's Eurobank about the country's banks.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:20:10] QUEST: All relatively quiet on Wall Street, muted, one might say. The Dow, which had started so encouragingly in the morning --
look at that nice mountain range of green, which turned into a valley of red. Not exactly a total river of it.
Investor sentiment boosted by encouraging data from the US services sector, and those early gains, they just tapered away. CNN Money's Paul La
Monica, why did they taper away? Look at all that green, just --
PAUL LA MONICA, CNN MONEY DIGITAL CORRESPONDENT: It --
QUEST: -- vamoose.
LA MONICA: What was amazing was that we had all that green to begin with, because Disney, big component of the Dow, had an awful day today.
Stock down about 9 percent. But despite that, you did have some optimism about those services numbers.
Somewhat perversely, you had a jobs report, not the big jobs report, the EDP jobs report came out today. A little bit lower job growth than
expected, which had people speculating that, well, maybe the Fed delays a rate hike, which is not the best thing to be hoping for at this point.
QUEST: Those Disney numbers were really interesting, because we talked about on this program at this time yesterday, and when you looked --
when you went -- when one went back and looked at them, they were not nearly as encouraging as Bob Iger would have us believe.
LA MONICA: Well, what was really fascinating was, Bob Iger started off that Disney earnings call with a defense of ESPN. It was almost as if
he was trying to get ahead of the criticism. He really knows that right now, everyone is worried about subscriber losses at ESPN. We live in this
world where streaming media is king, Netflix, that stock hit an all-time high today.
So, Disney faces a challenge of what to do when more people are cutting the cord, how is that going to impact ESPN?
QUEST: We had -- I think we had results as well.
LA MONICA: Time Warner had results, and Disney --
QUEST: Parent company of this network.
LA MONICA: Yes. Disney, Time Warner, Fox, Viacom, every old -- quote-unquote "old" media stock plunged today because of those cable
concerns.
QUEST: And if we look at -- it's fascinating, because the markets are back to good, old-fashioned earnings, as opposed to worrying about when
Janet Yellen and the FOMC is going to raise rates.
LA MONICA: It is nice.
QUEST: Oh, it'll swing backwards and forwards.
LA MONICA: Well, Friday, I think, everyone's going to be talking more macro than company stories, because that's when we have the main jobs
report.
QUEST: At least we're not talking about Greece. Sir.
LA MONICA: Yes.
QUEST: Good to see you.
LA MONICA: Thank you.
QUEST: Now, Greece's prime minister says the country's closing in on a deal with its lender. Alexis Tsipras in -- according to a Reuters
report, it says it would end doubts over Greece's place in the eurozone.
Athens needs the deal to be able to make a $3.9 billion payment to the ECB on August the 20th. Another $330 million to the IMF comes due just two
weeks later on September the 4th. You can see the money that has to be paid across.
Greek banks are facing even more pressure. Shares of the four biggest banks all fell more than 20 percent, 29 percent in some cases, on
Wednesday's session: 29, 29, 24, 26. It's the third day of losses. And to add more misery and heap more troubles on their shoulders, the ECB says
it will conduct stress tests on Greece banks. Of course, we know there's going to be a recapitalization.
Wilbur Ross is a distressed investor -- or a distressed assets investor, perhaps more appropriately. He put a billion bucks -- $1.8
billion -- into Eurobank last year. The shares are down 82 percent over the past 12 months. Mr. Ross joins me from Florida. Sir, your investment
has just virtually disappeared.
WILBUR ROSS, CHAIRMAN AND CEO, WL ROSS & CO.: Well, let me correct one thing. We were part of a group that made the investment. We are not
the whole sum of the investment. But it certainly is true that it's been a very huge decline in the value, and that happens a lot in distress over the
course of a cycle.
So, we have not lost heart. We're hoping that the Oliver Wyman study, which will set the asset quality review, and the stress test will use
reasonable assumptions and therefore not unduly impinge upon the equity investors.
QUEST: Are you preparing yourself for part of a recapitalization process that will inevitably dilute your shareholding?
ROSS: Well, we feel that as long as the treatment of the institutions is fair and is not based on wild assumptions, then in principle, many of us
would be prepared to participate in a writes offering to provide some additional capital to the banks.
[16:25:09] And then that would be, hopefully, supplemented with some sort of a convertible preferred, a so-called "contingently convertible"
security.
QUEST: So, but all of that allows you to maintain your ratio of investment as opposed to, as we saw, say, in Cyprus, or elsewhere, where
you literally end up having to take a haircut.
ROSS: Well, Cyprus, we didn't take a haircut, we came in on the writes offering about a year ago. And Cyprus, as I think you're well
aware, has been turning around very well as an economy. So, we're pretty comfortable with our investment there.
Our immediate concern is simply with whether or not the AQR and the stress test are sensible and don't go overboard with negativity just
because of the recent tumult.
QUEST: So, that's really what it's about now. Because now there's a stress test. Lord knows there's been several of them in the European
banking sector. But do you believe that the underlying assets are not -- and the portfolios are not nearly as bad as everybody thinks?
ROSS: Well, there are a big amount of non-performing loans. But we knew that when we came into the picture. There are also pretty reserved
against. So, we're not too worried about the quality of what's in there.
We're worried about people taking a snapshot at a moment in time when we're in the midst of capital controls and a very illiquid environment in
Greece and pinning the capitalization on that moment in time rather than a little bit longer-term view.
QUEST: Wilbur Ross, thank you, sir, for joining us, giving us that investor perspective, which is so important. Thank you, sir.
Most European stock markets were up on Wednesday's trading. Take a look at the numbers. The French stocks got a boost. Societe Generale
reports its biggest profit since the financial crisis. The mining shares were up on a ratings upgrade, and that -- well, of course, London's a huge
mining market. The FTSE to finish high up for the first time this week.
Even in Greece, the falling bank stocks once again dragged the Athens market lower. It's been down every day since it reopened after being
closed for five weeks. But the wider market, even though the banks were down 20, 30 percent, the wider market was just off 2.5 percent.
The debris, according to the prime minister, the debris found on the island of Reunion is from MH370. The families don't accept that
necessarily. We will talk about that.
[16:28:04] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:30:00] RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR AND REPORTER HOST OF "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS" SHOW: Hello, I'm Richard Quest. There's more
"Quest Means Business" in just a moment when we're going to show you the latest explanation for how wreckage from 370 could have traveled so far
across the Indian Ocean.
We'll hear from the relatives of one of the passengers onboard as they tell us the confusion he feels after today's announcement.
But before all of that, this is CNN and on this network the news always comes first. Malaysia's prime minister says the debris found last
week in Indian Ocean is conclusively from Malaysia Airlines MH370.
Families of the passengers and crew onboard have been notified after a piece of the plane's wing underwent tests in Toulouse. The Malaysian Prime
Minister Najib Razak said it confirmed the plane had been lost. `
(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)
NAJIB RAZAK, MALAYSIAN PRIME MINISTER: It is with a very heavy heart that I must tell you that an international team of experts have
conclusively confirmed that the aircraft debris found on Reunion Island is indeed from MH370.
We now have physical evidence that as I announced on 24th March last year, flight MH370 tragically ended in the Southern Indian Ocean.
(END VIDEOCLIP)
QUEST: Rescue workers are trying to save hundreds of migrants whose ship has capsized off the Libyan coast. As many of 700 people may have
been onboard the boat before it sank.
The aid organization Doctors without Borders says there are many deaths. It is taking part in the rescue effort which is coordinated by the
Italian coast guard.
Authorities say police in Tennessee have shot and killed a hatchet- wielding gunman near Nashville. Officers responded to reports of an active shooting inside a suburban movie theater. They say one person received
superficial wounds from the gunman's hatchet. The police say the suspect was a 51-year-old white male.
President Barack Obama has defended the nuclear deal it reached with Iran saying rejecting the agreement would lead to war. Mr. Obama also
criticized Benjamin Netanyahu's opposition to the plan. The Israeli prime minister's been vocal against the deal since it was agreed last month.
However, the U.S. President insisted he is right and the Israeli prime minister is wrong.
(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, U.S. PRESIDENT: I recognize that Prime Minister Netanyahu disagrees - disagrees strongly. I do not doubt his sincerity.
But I believe he is wrong. I believe the facts support this deal. I believe they are in America's interests and Israel's interests.
(END VIDEOCLIP)
QUEST: We return now to our top story - the confirmation that debris has been identified from MH370. David Gallo is oceanographer at the Woods
Hole Institution) in Massachusetts that helped locate the missing wreckage of Air France 447.
David joins me now. David, good to have you, sir. Any idea why they are so confident that it is from MH370, the prime minister says
conclusively?
DAVID GALLO, WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION: Yes, hi, Richard. Yes, I was surprised with that kind of language conclusively. You know,
lacking any serial numbers or maybe markings from Malaysian Airlines - you know - I didn't - I knew that's a very significant statement but I was kind
of at a loss for what allowed them to make such a bold statement right now.
QUEST: When we look at the - at the - debris field -
GALLO: Right.
QUEST: -- how - I mean, I understand we don't know how it crashed and we don't know what caused it and all those sort of things. So we don't
really know how much debris we have a right to expect would have made it across the ocean.
GALLO: That's a very good point. And in fact some of it may have drifted north, south, west, any direction. Depending on the shape and the
size of the objects and the winds and the currents at the time, the ocean may have dispersed them in different directions.
I can tell you the Air France 447 - the wreckage field on the bottom - the debris field is about 600 meters - six football fields - 600 meters
long, about 200 meters wide and that's on the bottom.
[16:35:04] On the surface, it was tens of miles across and long, so much more on the surface than there was on the bottom.
QUEST: And you got - or they got to that - they discovered that within I think I covered it three to five days I think the first wreckage
was spotted on the surface.
GALLO: Right.
QUEST: So how far would you expect the dispersal now because I keep hearing people say put planes up to go and see and I can understand
searching beaches but - would putting a plane up on such a vast area, would it make any difference?
GALLO: Yes. Well yes. Much smaller - you know - the density of the debris field is much less by now so that those objects are so scattered,
I'm sure many of them have sunk eventually to the bottom of the ocean.
So the chances of actually seeing something are probably much, much reduced than they were in the early days when everything was more or less
to together.
QUEST: When we look - and we can bring the picture up of the flaperon and I see these things on the side and I can't work out, David, whether
they are bits of the flaperon that is shredded or are they large sort of shell-like barnacles on the side, particularly on the trailing end.
There seems to be a lot of them. What are they?
GALLO: Well on the sides I saw what I believed to be barnacles and fairly large barnacles at that and maybe some other animals. What I - on
the trailing edge, I couldn't really - I never really got a good look at that about what was there and I wonder if that might've been some corrosion
even or maybe some abrasion from being bounced around on the corals and the surf zone.
So without having a close up of those things, it's hard to tell. But - and also on top of all that - I'm told that the people that initially
found the object cleaned it. Tried to clean it off a little bit when it was first discovered. So that doesn't help.
QUEST: If you got your hands on that, what would you be looking for?
GALLO: Oh, I think for starters you would want to find of course serial numbers, parts numbers, anything like that. But also having a close
look at the skin and at the places - the attachment points to the main wing so you can tell if they'd been - bolts had been sheared, had they been
compressed.
You can tell an awful lot just by looking at those things and that may help understand how it impacted the water.
Because I you want to know how that was detached from the aircraft. Was it in the air? Was it because of impact? And then, you know, there
are things - even pollen is a very sticky substance and people with cars near trees know that. Certain times of year it's impossible to get that
off your windshield.
Pollen can be a very good indicator of source. So it'd be interesting to see if they even go that far to try to find if there's any pollen left
on top of that or on the skin of that wing.
QUEST: David Gallo, thank you sir. Now, the simulation of the ocean drift has shown the debris from the expected crash zone was prepared. And
we'll go over there to the Super Screen.
OK, let's run this simulation. And you see we start from the 8th of March, and this simulation shows you what David Gallo was talking about.
It's the model from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and it begins 15 months into the search areas.
This is the search area along the seventh arc and this of course is where the main debris field would have moved. But as you can see already
by December of last year, you've got some early debris coming over here. The vast majority of it remains here.
The white arrows show the wind direction, the colored dots are the location of possible debris as it's moved by the waves. And by the time
you get to June of this year, fascinatingly, you will see - it'll stop where we are, the date at the moment.
There's Reunion. What you see - get right in there - and what you see of course is that the bulk would still be over here but the one or two
pieces would be here. And really the place to be looking is towards Madagascar and then further beyond Madagascar to the eastern coast of
Africa.
That shows you how - Tom Sater is with me from the CNN Weather Center. Tom, you've seen that modeling quite a few times.
TOM SATER, METEOROLOGIST AND WEATHER ANCHOR FOR CNN INTERNATIONAL: Yes.
QUEST: So help me - my geography is a little poor at the best of times. Remind me of the countries in Eastern Africa -
SATER: Sure.
QUEST: -- looking south of Madagascar that we would expect to see perhaps one or two things there.
SATER: Fabulous point when you talk about the other countries. I want to make one quick comment, Richard, on that model.
[16:40:04] The early model run you had - the company that put that out - actually put out a low probability of debris getting to Reunion, they
extended their model runs to include wind speed. And now not just the ocean flow, but the wind speed. And they carried the next couple of model
runs further into the western part of the Indian Ocean which really gave them a better grasp.
Now, again, there's been a lot of talk of the cyclones as you well know. When MH370 went missing we had a very large cyclone not far from
this area. Large cyclones no matter what are not going to disrupt the overall pattern of what we're looking at.
This is a bad image here. Let me get back here just for a minute. I'm going to go black for a minute - keep that running that model if you
would. What we're finding here is when you include the weight of the debris along with what's called windage, and that's what we're starting to
find out from now on - the windage. Some of these areas, the types of debris, are going to float differently as you well know.
Again, when we come back and let's see if we can get these graphics to work here, we're having a little bit of a problem here today, Richard.
QUEST: Who's here?
SATER: The computer system. Let's see if we can get this to run here. Hold on just a moment. And let me see if we can do this -
QUEST: You're all right.
SATER: -- give you a crude example. It'll be a crude example. But when you take your seventh arc here. Obviously there is still some
possibility of debris in Australia. We have what's called the roaring 40s down to the south that pretty much run at a pretty good pace along to the
south.
Now when it comes to the barnacles, that's important because you wonder well how many different types of species can there be?
These blue lines are cold currents, the red are warm currents. So there could be a difference in species between cold water and warm water
species.
This is a very crude example of the large circulation pattern. The model you ran put almost a straight line to just south of reunion. But if
you think about the grand scheme of things, this has been quite a miracle. Because if you have that - the flaperon in the vast ocean which is really
the size of a microscopic particle traveling thousands of kilometers and lands on the island the size of a pea, that is remarkable.
Check the coastlines. Not just the ones that are in the north where -
QUEST: But --
SATER: -- they found it such as in Madagascar, but those that are in the northwest for -
QUEST: -- Tom, I'm just about - I'm just about - you were getting there. Sorry, I think I might have interrupted you. I've got me map here,
so I can go backwards because your map was a little bit tricky.
SATER: Yes.
QUEST: What about, say for example, the coastline of Mozambique?
SATER: Yes.
QUEST: Looking up to almost to Tanzania, the Comoros Islands, --
SATER: Right.
QUEST: -- maybe even the eastern coast of South Africa?
SATER: Well it's - the - way the currents are coming in from the north, they get quite strong in between Reunion and Madagascar, also
between Madagascar and areas of the coastline that are going to be - if there's going to be debris, it's going to be following and most likely
washing on shore northern or even northeastern-facing coastlines.
Most of it - and how - we don't even know, Richard - how much of it may have already passed through and continues on its circulation pattern.
So again, keep in mind I know they're scouring these coastlines on the northern end and that's important.
But there are years and years and years of ocean debris. Another way to look at it is if you go over to what the debris from the Japan tsunami,
we learned a lot. There is such a large coastline - this is a large target for items to wash on shore.
We just don't have that. You've mentioned that so many times but if you go back to Japan and watch the currents. We went back in time, a small
area of debris can go to the north, to the south, it gets caught - these pieces may be floating around here for months and months. The overall
pattern does take it over to the coast of North America, but again, time is against us.
To go back and to backtrack - here's another model for you, Richard. If you start right here where the search area is at the bottom of the
search box here - this is another model -- again, it's more crude. The brighter colors of red will tell you the best probability of where those
could be.
But watch the green as well. So here's the answer to your question. I mean, all the way from the Horn of Africa down to the south, back over to
areas of Australia, if they get in the roaring 40s, you'll going follow along the southern coast of Australia.
That is a large area, so it may not be entire large circulation pattern as we've been talking about, but that is a vast, vast ocean - I
think you said it correctly. Searching by air is going to be almost impossible.
QUEST: And it all assumes that it hasn't sunk on the way. Even if it was --
SATER: Correct.
QUEST: -- floating when the plane, when it hit the water and after the plane. Tom Sater, thank you, sir, for that. And I'll dare put another
dime in the meter and your machine will work for the rest of the afternoon.
SATER: (LAUGHTER). Thank you.
QUEST: Thank you very much indeed. All right, now this is extraordinary. There are 17 candidates for the first presidential debate
in the 2016 U.S. election. The Republican crowded field has forced candidates into two tiers. We're going to explain who's in which tier and
of course where the eyes will be on Mr. Trump. "Quest Means Business." (RINGS BELL).
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:47:05] QUEST: The stage is set for the first debate of the 2016 U.S. presidential race. There are 17 Republican candidates who'll appear
tomorrow (LAUGHTER) as only politicians can. They'll have to do it in two shifts - that's a nice way of looking at it.
You've got the ten leading candidates according to national polls and they'll appear in the primetime event. Think of them as the frontrunners
of the horses and the riders. The other seven candidates including Rick Perry and Rick Santorum from 2012. They'll face off in a separate debate
earlier in the day.
CNN's political director David Chalian joins me now from Washington. David, we need your help. We need your help, sir, because how do you view
Trump's role tomorrow night?
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: So I think, listen, Donald Trump, Richard, has - he started out of the gate as a phenomenon and he
skyrocketed to the top of the polls and now he's basically completely doubled down that support. I mean, he's lapping his closest competitors.
So Donald Trump no longer has to prove his worth for standing on that stage, that he belongs there. The polls have shown that for quite a bit.
He has tapped into something real inside the Republican nominating electorate.
So I think we're going to see a Donald Trump now who is coming to move his campaign into the next phase - taking this catapult of support -
QUEST: Right.
CHALIAN: -- from the top and now actually prove himself a serious contender for the nomination.
QUEST: Does it matter if he is non-specific on policy? Because I've heard the pundits all opine with great solemnity that the moment he can't
come up with a detailed policy on immigration, taxation, reform - whatever it might be - it's all over bar the shouting. (RINGS BELL).
CHALIAN: Yes, I don't believe that at all. I don't think he needs to hold forth here like a professor and lay out specific policy details. I
don't think that is what a debate about. Remember, you've got ten candidates on the stage, probably about 90 minutes of debate time - that
includes the moderator's questions as well - maybe you're talking about seven minutes or so that each candidate gets to speak in the end.
That is not a venue for a policy proposal. That is a venue for trying to create a moment, show that you belong, show that you know what you're
talking about. But I don't - I just don't see it, Richard. I don't see that not knowing a certain law by name is going to somehow knock him out of
contention.
Part of what's driving his support is that he's not a Washington creature, not a regular politician.
QUEST: We're going to need your help in the next few weeks, months ahead so you'd better be prepared to come back and talk to us frequently as
we navigate the polls and (inaudible). Thank you very much, sir.
CHALIAN: My pleasure, thank you.
QUEST: Now we will return to our lead story after the break. The families of MH370 have been speaking about the development when the prime
minister of Malaysia says conclusively the wreckage is from that plane.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:51:48] QUEST: At just before dawn in Malaysia, we're already getting reaction to the news that debris from the plane MH370 has been
identified. This was the simple tweet from the official Malaysia Airlines account just a few hours ago -- a ribbon with the hashtag
#alwaysinourhearts.
Among those family members dealing with the news is K.S. Narendran. You can see him on the right of this photograph. On the left is his wife
who was onboard the aircraft. Hala Gorani spoke to Mr. Narendran a short while ago.
(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)
K.S. NARENDRAN, HUSBAND OF MH370 PASSENGER FROM CHENNAI, INDIA: When I heard the news from the prime minister of Malaysia, I was quite saddened.
I suppose a heavy heart felt all the way down.
And subsequently when I heard the French authorities speak, I was left a little confused to start with because the prime minister was very
definitive and the French were sort of - what shall we say? I think they were - there was a lot of wordplay there and I was wondering therefore what
to believe.
Because I think the families included were waiting for a lot more definitive conclusions to be shared. So I was left somewhat confused, a
little, frankly, angry and dismayed.
HALA GORANI, CNN ANCHOR, "THE WORLD RIGHT NOW": And Mr. Narendran, your wife was on MH370. Are you - I mean - are you being kept informed by
authorities or by the airline or are you getting your information essentially from the media?
NARENDRAN: Tonight -- and it's about quarter (ph) past midnight here -- tonight I got the news from the airline authorities first.
GORANI: Yes.
NARENDRAN: And within a matter of a few minutes I saw Mr. Razak speak on television.
GORANI: So you are getting some information from the airline. Obviously what you want now is solid information. You want to know exactly
what happened and you don't want it to be contradictory. Is that kind of your hope going forward right now?
NARENDRAN: I think that's the minimum that's owed to us that there is a certain - (inaudible) there is a certain painstaking analysis that
happens and there are facts without the substantiated conclusion that's drawn that the flaperon, the part that's been washed ashore, is indeed from
MH370. I didn't hear facts, I didn't hear the basis, I heard nothing.
And so it leaves me wondering whether - you know there's a foregone conclusion and everybody is racing to the finish.
GORANI: What's your state - if I can ask - if I can ask you now - what is your state of mind now? I mean, we're a year and a half or so
after the disappearance of the aircraft. This our first potential - potentially our first physical clue. Where are you now in terms of your
state of mind?
NARENDRAN: Well in terms of the state of mind, all I can say is that it's continued to be a struggle to cope with looking at life ahead.
And, well, we continue on a daily basis to confront the reality that in my case since my wife is not around and all that one has to sort of fall
back on are flashes and memories that are all the time a close friend and accompaniment and that's all that there is left.
[16:55:33] So it's been a difficult process and we're trying to sort of reconstruct the lives, you know, from a certain traumatic phase that
we've been through. That's been my struggle over the last few months.
(END VIDEOCLIP)
QUEST: We'll be back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: A final thought tonight. The families or at least some of them of those on MH370 will never accept that this flaperon or what
happened to the plane or that it went down into the Southern Indian Ocean and they must be allowed to have that moment of hope, that moment of
respect and that moment of grief.
For the rest of us, well, the prime minister's words are fairly conclusive and indeed I believe from what I hear from Toulouse and from
Malaysia that the reason is there is solid evidence that this is indeed the flaperon from the plane.
If that's the case, the search must be redoubled. The appalling conditions in the Southern Indian Ocean at the moment simply means that it
will take longer. Half of it has been searched, there's still half to go. And the searching will continue well into 2016.
And that's "Quest Means Business" for tonight. I'm Richard Quest in New York. Make sure we come together at this time tomorrow.
END
