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Quest Means Business
Traders Fear Brutal Market Volatility; Voters in Britain Go to the Polls on Thursday; Lawson: Experts Don't Always Get It Right; Wall Street Lower On Brexit Concerns; Juncker, Johnson: No More Deals in Brussels; Caudwell: I liked the EU for Its Common Market; Business Leaders, Cambridge Academics Wary of Possible Brexit; Many UK Scientists Fear Loss of EU Funding; Immigration Concerns Fuel Brexit Support; Stoke City FC Chairman: Brexit Would Hurt Us
Aired June 22, 2016 - 160:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[16:00:00] RICHARD QUEST, CNN ANCHOR: Closing bell is ringing on Wall Street. Lime Brokerage is ringing the bell, and the gavel gets hit. Yes,
there we are, a nice firm gavel to bring trading to a close. It's Wednesday. It's the 22nd of June.
Tonight, Britain on the eve of history. Last-minute campaigning before a vote that frankly is still too close to call. Banks batten down the
hatches for fear of punishing pound volatility, and all aboard. I'll be taking you on board a whistle-stop tour of Britain in our 1970s British
camper van. I'm Richard Quest live in London where, of course, tonight I mean business.
Good evening. It is the eve of an historic decision that will shape Britain and its place in the world for decades to come and the country is
bitterly divided. A record 46.5 million people have now registered to vote in the EU referendum, and the polls have consistently shown voters are
split down the middle. Ahead of the vote British politicians are making their final push persuading the electorate. The Prime Minister, David
Cameron, told voters remaining in the EU will boost Britain's ability to create jobs, fight climate change and win against terrorists. U.K.
Independence Party, UKIP leader Nigel Farage says, a vote to leave is a vote to literally regain control of the nation.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NIGEL FARAGE, LEADER, UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY: Tomorrow we can vote for real change. Tomorrow we can vote to put power back in the hands of people. We
can vote to take control of our country back. We can vote to get our borders back. We can vote to get our pride and self-respect as a nation
and in who we are as a people back.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAVID CAMERON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: Above all, it's about that word, together. We will win together, fight together, keep the Britain in a
European Union together. So let's get out there and vote remain, tomorrow, Thursday. Go for it. Thank you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Now the former U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer and Lord Norman Lamont joins me live. First of all, you're obviously strongly from the
"Leave" campaign. Have you found yourself in some difficulty being on the same side as Nigel Farage from UKIP, a man with whom you don't have many
things in politics with common with?
NORMAN LAMONT, FORMER U.K. CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER: It's not so much being on the same side as Nigel Farage. I don't take any particular
pleasure of being the opposite side from David Cameron who used to work for me when I was chancellor exchequer. This is an issue above personal
friendship, that is above party.
QUEST: Right. There's a letter in this morning's "Times". Entrepreneurs and business executives have written this letter to the "Times."
Entrepreneurs and business executives are basically making a last-minute push to stay in the EU. The letter is on page nine, if I sort of head to
it. To nearly 1,300 of them were involved, and they signed this letter urging voters to choose to remain in the EU. The letter basically says
they represent over a million employees, and it is their considered opinion that they are better off within the EU for business point of view. Why
should we ignore the views of so many CEOs running so many companies?
LAMONT: Well, I don't think you ignore the names of the people, but a list of names is not an argument. One considers the arguments on their merit.
QUEST: But you're talking about Sir Richard Branson, Carly McAuliffe, EasyJet Michael Bloomberg, I mean, I could go through the whole list. You
can see the letter. It basically says, as business people we look to the future, and a future inside the EU is where we see more opportunities for
investment, growth and new jobs. Now, your side has to basically say why we should not listen to these people who employ so many people and run such
big businesses.
LAMONT: Well, I think you would find that smaller businesses and entrepreneurs actually, you know, there are plenty of them. They may be a
minority, but there are quite a lot of people in that category who take quite a different view. I don't think that this is determined, as I said,
by lists or by numbers. You say they represent a million employees. Well, the labor force, you know, that's less than 5 percent of the labor force.
[16:05:00] QUEST: But it's the companies, sir. It's Diageo, it's BP, it's PWC and, I mean, these are the backbone of the British economy.
LAMONT: Big business, many of it likes the EU because it has an inside track. They can sit cozily with civil servants. They can lobby. Brussels
is full of lobbyists. Big business like it more than small business does. That is the case, but, you know, I think there are arguments against -- I
think one of the mistakes that many of these businessmen make is that they overrate the single market. The impression is given that the single market
is some castle or walled garden and we've got a special key to it, but, frankly, this is just not true. The EU is accessible to non-members as
well. The United States sells more to the single market than we do. Even in services the United States is increasing its services faster than we do.
QUEST: You surely can understand that it is very difficult for the voter to go against many experts, many economists, who were wrong over the ERM
and wrong over the euro, but, you know, when the doctor tells you to take this medicine, you take it. As David Cameron says when the car mechanic
says don't drive the car you don't drive it. When George Soros says, the pound is going to go down 15 percent, you listen and were you on the other
side of Soros in `92.
LAMONT: But as you have just said, these people were wrong before about the euro. I remember in 1982 when 364 economists, 364, it's not 1,200 but
still an awful lot, wrote a letter to "The Times" saying that the British economy would never recover from the policies being pursued by Mrs.
Thatcher. And almost to the day that they wrote the letter the economy started growing again. This is not just about the opinion of -- there are
other issues as well. There's obviously the issue of our borders. There's the issue of where the European Union is going. It is going towards
becoming a political union in which the British Parliament has less say, ministers have less say. They are a small minority. You have 10 percent
of the votes in the European Parliament, 8 percent of the votes in Council of ministers and we have measures imposed on us that we don't want.
QUEST: If the vote is to remain, just for the purposes of this question, sir, humor me that -- the vote, do people like yourself then basically keep
quiet and sort of work for reform within the union, but this has now been a decision. We have to move forward within the union. It's time to put the
argument of membership --
LAMONT: I think whatever way it goes, the decision has to be accepted. Of course, people may --
QUEST: But you call rankle sidelines.
LAMONT: I'm not going to rankle.
QUEST: Not you personally.
LAMONT: I don't think people should rankle. But that is not to say that you can settle an issue for eternity. I don't suppose there's going to be
another referendum if "Remain" win within the next couple of years or the next five years. But that doesn't mean that people won't evaluate what
Europe is doing. An awful lot will depend on what Europe does next as well.
QUEST: Lord Lamont, thank you, sir, for coming in. Thank you, I appreciate it very much.
Now, as we sort of take the temperature of those people who were there in `92, of course, when the ERM diabolical took place. And also in the years
afterwards. Lord Lamont's predecessor, Lord Nigel Lawson, who supports the "Leave" campaign as well. So here we have two former Tory chancellors,
both of whom are supporting the leave campaign. I started asking Lord Lawson how he accounts for experts warn of grave consequences from Brexit.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NIGEL LAWSON, FORMER UK CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER: I think that when people say don't listen to experts, what they're thinking about is, for
example, the 364 economists who in in 1981 said that such a government, that which I was a part, was driving the economy on to the rocks and we'd
be in a deeper recession. In fact, then we had a recovery.
The experts subsequently said the United Kingdom will be finished if we didn't join the euro. It's now clear that the euro is a disaster area and
we were very fortunate that we didn't join it. So they are frequently wrong. But you know, I mean, you know, in my own small way as a long
serving chancellor I regard myself as something of an expert and Norman Lamont, another former chancellor, takes the same view that we will be far
better off outside the European Union.
QUEST: One of the most persuasive arguments for the "Leave" side is that you would negotiate an independent trade treaty with the EU.
[16:10:00] But surely any trade treaty with the EU would require Britain to follow the same rules and the same standards whether it's manufacturing
standards. You know, you're going to end up being -- following the rules without having a say in how they are made.
LAWSON: Well, there are three things, if I may say so, that are mistaken about that. First of all, we don't need a trade treaty at all. You don't
need a trade treaty to trade. We do far more trade, far more with the rest of the world than we do with the rest of the European Union, and we don't
have a trade treaty with most of these countries. We don't have a trade treaty, for example, with the United States, and we do an enormous amount
of business with them. People confuse trade treaties with trade. Trade is important and trade treaties are not. Particularly if you look at Europe
where the weighted average of the European common external ties bar is 3.6 percent. That's a tiny barrier and indeed the rest of the world, all
outside the European Union, trade massively with the European Union despite no trade treaty.
The other thing is what this ignores is the harm of overregulation. One of the problems with the European Union is they have what they call is a
Democratic deficit and bureaucrat surplus. And European regulation is stifling small and medium-sized companies, particularly in the United
Kingdom, and we can't do anything about it inside the European Union because European Union law is superior to United Kingdom law.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
QUEST: Lord Lawson talking to me before earlier and before that you heard Lord Lamont, two conservative chancellors maybe from different era, but
both men of whom actually had to deal with very much the issues of Europe, the pound, the ERM as it was and the euro. There are less than ten hours
and Britain goes to the polls. In 23 hours the polls will be just about to close. If voters choose to leave, it will trigger immediate and dramatic
changes for markets and politics. We'll look at that in just a moment. It's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. Good evening to you tonight from London.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: It's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. The eve before the referendum and investors seem fairly confident ahead of the referendum vote. The markets
continue to rise. The betting is that the U.K. is going to vote to remain in the EU. Roughly a half of a percent split across the board. Take a
look at the numbers, you see, and, I mean, obviously Europe gets badly affected whatever happens in that sense if there's a Brexit vote. But it
was the FTSE that eked out the most gains. It's up just over half a percent. Most European markets have gained every day this week since the
trend shifted towards remain. Wall Street ended the day lower. The Dow could not hang on to any gains and it finished and down nearly 50 points.
[16:15:00] It was up most of the session, and then absolutely -- take a look. Straight away, 12:30 in the afternoon it turned negative in the
afternoon session after hundred points gain in the morning it turned negative later.
Financial institutions have begun making preparations for the referendum. British regulators are urging the U.K. banks to have plenty of cash on hand
in case the vote is to leave. Joining me knew from Washington is Andrey Kostin, the president and chairman of Russia's VTB bank. Mr. Kostin, you
know, obviously everybody is concerned in the financial world. How do you see tomorrow going from the financial point of view?
ANDREY KOSTIN, PRESIDENT AND CHAIRMAN, VTB BANK: Well, first of all, I think Britain will not leave the EU, at least I bought as much pounds as I
could for my personal money and last Thursday it earned some money to pay for my summer holiday already. But I will wait with my position until the
end of the week. I'm quite confident that Britain will stay. I'm sure that it seems that the Prime Minister Cameron used the referendum as a good
negotiation position with EU to gain some concessions. And he succeeded in this and it seems that though that's a narrow vote, but Britain will stay.
Of course the --
QUEST: Is it your understanding there that trading floors across the world, particularly obviously in Europe, will be active or watching
tomorrow night at 10:00 as the votes -- as the polls close and the votes start being counted, and there will be an element of nervousness in the
following hours?
KOSTIN: That's what the financial markets are. They are very nervous always and that will happen again. But on the other hand I think that the
negative consequences of Britain to leave the EU is very much over exaggerated for Britain. Though, as I said, I don't think it will happen.
QUEST: When we factor in the whole question of the EU, and particularly of course the troubled and strained relationships with Russia. And indeed in
some extent is the difficulties that your open bank has with financing as a result of sanctions. One has to say the last thing the entire global
economy needed was this bout of uncertainty when there is still some fragility when it comes to growth. Would you agree?
KOSTIN: That very much too. I agree with this. We all remember that the global financial crisis starting here in America in 2007. But it did very
badly affect the Russian economy one year later. So we are very much, our Russian financial securities are very much interested in stability for
Europe as well as for the global economy and global finance. So from this point of view we don't want any troubles in Europe.
QUEST: Right, Andrey Kostin, thank you for joining us. Look forward to meeting you and to catching up to you next time in Moscow. Thank you for
joining us from Washington.
KOSTIN: Thank you.
QUEST: The Prime Minister David Cameron has emphasized over and over that a Brexit will be irreversible if U.K. votes to leave. It will trigger
dramatic changes and they will begin the day after tomorrow. So let us look and think about some of those changes that are likely to happen.
Well, the first will be that extreme market volatility. That's almost a given according to George Soros. Sterling could fall up to 15 percent, but
possibly double-digit losses for U.K. and European stocks. By double digits I mean percentage-wise. Could be triple digits in nominal terms.
UBS is warning volatility could actually halt some trading.
And then you've got the political upheaval. David Cameron would be under intense pressure to resign. If remain prevails Brexit backers could quit.
And that would be Michael Gove. But Cameron has said that he won't go. He said he called the referendum, but he would not actually leave if he loses.
And finally the EU exit process would begin. There would be a moment of -- there would be a period of, if you like, shadow dancing and shadow boxing
and then eventually, not immediately, probably after a year or two, the U.K. would invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Then the two-year
process begins and up to two years which gives the U.K. that time between the EU and the European Commission to negotiate the exit. But the
important thing here is that the U.K. does not sit at the table when the other nations are discussing and deciding what they're going to do as
regards Britain. So the UK is effectively already left outside as the negotiations take place. The EU officials and leaders of the vote movement
are agreed on one thing, there'll be no more deal making in Brussels.
[16:20:00] (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER, PRESIDENT, EUROPEAN COMMISSION: In which policy makers and what the British voters have to know to know that there will be
no kind of any renegotiation. We have concluded a deal with the Prime Minister. He got the maximum he could receive, and we gave the maximum we
could give. So there will be no kind of renegotiation. Nor on the agreement we have found, I think in February, nor as far as any kind of
negotiation are concerned. Out is out.
BORIS JOHNSON, FORMER MAYOR OF LONDON: I'm afraid we didn't get anything in in that deal in February. There was no real change to border
arrangements. No real change to any of the ways in which Brussels runs our lives. 60 percent of the law of our country coming from Brussels. Our
entire fisheries are controlled by Brussels. You've got the EU commission sitting instead of us deciding how fish stocks -- our U.K. fish are going
to be parceled up and divvied up. And so you take back control and I think it will be a big, big moment for democracy around this country and around
Europe.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
QUEST: So the nights before the voting begins, Stephanie Flanders is with me, chief market strategist at JPMorgan asset management. Do you,
Stephanie, give much credence to the financial apocalypse messages that we've had from some people, whether it's Soros, whether, Nouriel Roubini?
Do you think they overplayed their hand the same way that the treasury did?
STEPHANIE FLANDERS, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, JPMORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT: We know though that it would be a big reaction certainly for sterling. And
the to the extent that Soros was talking about in the range of 10 to 15 percent. That's not far off what we had estimated. Maybe not happening
automatically -- instantly but that seemed to us like a reasonable kind of figure. So I wouldn't say that was a couple -- but I would say that the
way the market has come back in this last week, and this appearance sort of clarity that the market feels, even if no one on the ground in the UK feels
that actually is going to be a remain vote. That is ironically meant that any volatility on Friday will be that much greater if we do get a vote to
Brexit.
QUEST: JPMorgan, I presume the midnight oil -- more than the midnight oil -- the overnight sandwiches were being delivered as people wait, watch and
prepare to take positions as a result of this.
FLANDERS: Yes, and I think it's something that we had a view all along. But when the polls are this close and they have continued to be this close,
we don't have any special insight into how those people are going to vote.
QUEST: But there are rumors that there are banks in the city doing their own exit polling.
FLANDERS: That makes very little sense to me. Because you know this better than anyone, there's good reasons why the Brexit polls aren't being
done by the major broadcasters. It's because they would not have any scientific value. Because there isn't a comparison from the previous time.
Because we can't go back to 1975. It's possible that finance institutions are playing for the polls. But it's very unclear what those polls would
actually be worth.
QUEST: When we put it together -- we had Soros yesterday. You've got the FTSE chiefs joining forces, 1300, and if you look at the companies involved
-- pretty much -- probably every FTSE company is in there. Do you find that powerful, or do you find that hitting it over the head?
FLANDERS: I think it's been very difficult for business leaders to know how to play this. Because they don't want to come across as somehow
threatening. But you have to -- you know, if this is a decision, it's not a narrow political decision. It's something we've seen parties on both
sides -- politicians in both parties and having strong views on. It's something which has enormous economic and financial implications. And for
businesses not to have their say in that, I think, would be a shame. But you know, Richard, what's been good about this, is it's show the people who
say economists can never agree. Well actually they have been able to agree on this one thing.
QUEST: Most of them.
FLANDERS: there will be economic atrocity. 99 percent of economists.
QUEST: Are you going to tell me how you think it's going to go? You can plead the Fifth Amendment on this one.
FLANDERS: We, along with everyone else, think on balance they'll be a remain vote. But if we generally think it's too close to call and that's
the same as everyone else.
Good to see you, thank you.
FLANDERS: Thank you.
QUEST: We'll see 24 hours ahead.
This time tomorrow the polls will be about to close 30 minutes from now. CNN has special coverage throughout the night. It begins the moment 10:00
p.m. on Thursday evening when big ben strikes. It's 11:00 in central Europe. The U.K. decides in or out.
[16:25:00] When we come back after the break, Freddy Brexit makes his final run. The camper van that took mow around Britain. It's a camper van from
the 1970s and you'll meet Freddy Brexit all over again. QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAIN ASHER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello everyone. I'm Zain Asher at CNN center. Richard will be back with his U.K. referendum tour in just a moment. But
first these are the top news headlines we're following for you at this hour.
On the eve of that historic referendum "Leave" and "Remain" campaigners are making a last-ditch appeal to voters across Britain. Opinion polls are
extremely close and voting begins in a matter of hours. Thursday's decision could make the U.K. the first ever country to leave the European
Union.
Donald Trump has unleashed a blistering attack on his likely general election opponent, Hillary Clinton, in a speech in New York. Trump called
Clinton a world class liar and the most corrupt person ever to seek the presidency. In a later address in North Carolina Clinton called Trump
reckless and said he offers, quote, unquote, no solutions.
North Korea has fired two ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. That's according to South Carolina. Seoul warns the north will face harsher
sanctions from the international community from its latest violation of U.N. resolutions. South Korea says Pyongyang has launched at least six
missiles so far this year.
And some drama in the U.S. House of Representatives as more than two dozen house Democrats staged a sit-in. They are demanding the Republican
leadership hold a debate and a vote on gun control legislation. Earlier this week the Senate failed to pass bills proposed in the wake of the
Orlando massacre. OK, everyone, those are your headlines and now back to our Richard Quest in London.
[16:30:00] QUEST: Welcome back to QUEST MEANS BUSINESS here in London. And, of course, our fine camper van which did such sterling service as we
drove it across Britain. Now, obviously the wealth of breaking news last week that we weren't able to bring you as much from Freddy Brexit as we had
hoped to. Well, there's always a second chance and a second opportunity. Come on board and let's enjoy some of the highlights as we travel around
Britain, and you can't do better than a good old-fashioned television. Now let's see what's on the television tonight. There you go. It'll just take
a second or two to warm up, warm up the box and now I've got a nice picture. Let's enjoy it.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
QUEST (voice-over): As we caravan across the United Kingdom, my classic camper van has history of its own. It's already enjoyed plenty of
adventures. Let's be honest. This beloved Bedford is hardly brand new. It was built in Britain back in 1978, the decade the U.K. joined the
European Economic Community. By any definition Freddy was frail around the edges. What's going to be our biggest risk on the engine?
JACKSON, CAMPER VAN'S FORMER OWNER: The dirty oil filter and the timing belt. I don't know if the timing belt has been replaced.
QUEST: The mechanics set to work. Parts were replaced and a thorough going over. Then a paint job transforming our Brexit bus. Adding bright
retro colors befitting the 1970s. Sign writings splashed across the sides. Our CNN logo across the roof. It can be spotted by drones overhead. So
after spiffed and polished Freddy was fit for the road.
QUEST (on camera): Look at this fine piece of British engineering, Freddy the camper van.
JOHN CAUDWELL, CO-FOUNDER, PHONES4U: Very nice.
QUEST (voice-over): Before we set off I was invited around for tea at the home of one of Britain's biggest taxpayers. When did you realize that you
didn't like the EU or the EC before or the EEC before that? Did it come over time?
CAUDWELL: Well, first of all, I liked the common market because I like pragmatic decisions between any trading partners, whether they are in
business, whether they are countries, it doesn't matter. It's sensible to try and build trading relationships with your allies and friends to grow
your mutual interest. That's extremely sensible. What was completely balmy was to try and rule 10, 15, 20, the who knows how many more, 30
disparate countries. They've all got different aims in life and different stations, different requirements and rule them all from one central place
in Europe. That was always balmy. Even more balmy was to put a euro in that then took away every country's ability to float their currency freely
in order to remain competitive and in order to fight back in times of hardship.
QUEST: It's going to cost the U.K. quite a large amount of money just to replace though many of the functions that that money is currently being
spent at the European Union. More civil service for investigating standards, more civil servants for negotiating trade deals. The size of
the U.K. government will have to grow. It's not as if it's a cost-free basis.
CAUDWELL: I think it is a cost-free basis because how much is it costing us now to defend our position in Europe, to spend all the time negotiating
with Europe to try to defend that position. And to then implement a huge tranches of legislation that we don't want. How much is that costing?
QUEST: But much of that legislation would have to be passed by the U.K. anyway merely to maintain parity with Europe even we come out. Otherwise
you're going to find the Europeans saying your standards aren't the same as ours. Therefore, we won't allow these things.
CAUDWELL: That's pure speculation, Richard. That's complete speculation. You know, we are a free nation. We can trade with whomever we want. We
can trade all over the world and we can set our own rules and regulations for our country. And as long as we're obeying basic humanitarian rights
and so on so we don't get boycotted, which of course, we always would. Because we're one of the most civilized countries in the world. Then why
is anybody going to object to how we structure her business? Why would we need working directives on how many hours a week somebody can work? You
know, in my business in the past we had -- I had people who absolutely were so dedicated to winning, so dedicated to succeeding within the business,
that they set their working hours. I didn't set them. In fact, I used to send them home. Why do we need legislation that tries and seeks to control
that sort of situation?
QUEST: Do you accept that the U.K. will not get single market access for nothing?
[16:35:00] CAUDWELL: Oh, yes, absolutely, yes, absolutely, because we're 100 billion -- there's 100 billion of our money buying their products.
What -- how on earth are they not going to desperately need Britain to be trading on a free basis. If we put import duties on all the goods coming
from Europe, it would absolutely kill them.
QUEST: Did you give a lot of thought to the idea of coming out and speaking so forcefully for the "Leave" side?
CAUDWELL: No, I didn't, but I'll always put my head above the parapet with things that I believe in.
QUEST: Why is it so important for you?
CAUDWELL: It's not important to me. It won't make a scrap of difference to my life personally. It won't make any difference. If anything, it
could be slightly negative in the short term, because there will be a little bit of up certainty. You know, a yes vote would leave slightly less
uncertainty than a no vote. But because I absolutely vehemently believe that Britain's long-term future and medium-term future, will be so much
better out of Europe regardless of any personal consequences for the next few months, I absolutely state my colors to that mast.
QUEST (voice-over): Eighty kilometers north of London is Cambridge. One of the world's best known university towns here at this ancient academic
institution. Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin and Lord Byron pondered the great issues of their day.
EDDIE IZZARD, COMEDIAN: I don't know if you know, but it's 75 percent of people up to the age of 35 are positive about Europe. Interesting is in
it.
QUEST: Now it's the turn of the comedian Eddie Izzard to urge students at the prestigious student's union making their voices heard on the biggest
issue facing British today, the vote on membership to the European Union.
IZZARD: I'm here talking to young people to put forward ideas and our ideas are more complicated. Our ideas are saying, yes, we're proud to be
British. We're proud to be U.K. citizens, but also we would like to look out and say well who are you? Are you French or German, Italian, and what
do you do? Can you learn from us? Let's keep working on it. Let's keep seeing what we can do. We're trying to head forward and put up our hands,
rather than pull back, put up a wall and put up our fists. That's a more negative viewpoint. I'm just going out there.
QUEST: For these students born and brought up over the decades of Britain's EU membership, they are being asked to help make a decision about
a totally different future.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE STUDENT: So it's on the economy. If we leave it will definitely be damaged.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE STUDENT: I'm somebody who studies economics and looking to go into the financial services, I think it's putting more benefits to
remain.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE STUDENT: I'm basically leave because I think that we need democratic control in this country.
QUEST: The university, too, has a lot at stake. Nearly a quarter of Cambridge University's research budget comes from the EU. Dame Athene
Donald is the professor of experimental physics and master of Churchill College at the university. She's one is 150 scientists who signed a letter
expressing grave concern for the future of the U.K.'s universities in science.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAME ATHENE DONALD, MASTER OF CHURCHILL COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY: I'm terrified that we will leave, I really am. Because I think the knock-on
effects could be just catastrophic and unimaginable for probably all of Europe.
QUEST (on camera): What is your fundamental fear here?
DONALD: My fundamental fear is that science in the UK is fantastically strong. Were often rated only second to the U.S. despite the size of the
country. And we get a very substantial part of our funding from the EU, and in terms of what the government itself puts in, the -- we're rather low
on the "Leave" table.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: The academic argument against Brexit essentially comes down to one of money. If the U.K. leaves the EU, then the funds from Brussels will
stop flowing, and that will have a dramatic effect on U.K. academic excellent says the Vice Chancellor of Cambridge University.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LESZEK BORYSIEWICZ, VICE-CHANCELLOR, UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE: Well, from my point of view I think it's little short of disastrous. At the end of
the day the idea of remaining in from the point of view of academic institutions, of science and of research, it's basically the only show in
town. It's why even most people are usually saying about 80 to 85 percent of all academics are really behind remaining in the European Union.
QUEST: So those that aren't, what are they seeing that you're not, sir?
BORYSIEWICZ: Well, I think they're seeing an "Alice in Wonderland" world as if often promoted by the Brexitiers that actually I would rather look at
a world that's a reality for my children, my grandchildren, for the future instead of a world where they can't even to this day, actually describe
what that world looks like. So I'm afraid I vote and look at what is the reality rather than what looks like a pie in the sky.
[16:40:00] QUEST: This place will survive whatever happens.
BORYSIEWICZ: Absolutely. But at the end of the day there's a question of between surviving in difficult circumstances and surviving being able to
move forward as rapidly as we are moving forward at the end of the day to be not only one of Europe's major centers for economic growth in the whole
of Europe, but actually utilizing the research that we have got to find new cures for dementia, for cancer, for real things that matter to real people
in order to enable us to use the intellectual property to drive economic growth in a region such as Cambridge, which is probably the biggest area of
economic growth in the whole of the European Union today.
That's what I want to keep maintaining. And not to see us falling backwards and stumbling over ourselves, with a lurching into a very
uncertain tomorrow using the same words I used previously, an "Alice in Wonderland" world where nothing is certain, nobody knows where anything is
going. Putting frankly, as far as I'm concerned, the whole of the academic community of our leadership in research and academic work at risk for the
future for a completely unknown set of goals.
QUEST (voice-over): If I was hard pressed finding someone of the leave persuasion in Cambridge it was a completely different story just a short
drive further north.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Out.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Leave.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Out, out.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST (voice-over): It's market day in Boston in Lincolnshire. On Wednesdays and Saturdays this town square is overtaken by local traders.
And it doesn't get much more British than the bulldog and when you talk to the owners not surprisingly their views were firmly British-based.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm out.
QUEST (on camera): Why?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Because I remember when Britain used to be a community and we're no longer in control.
QUEST (voice-over): Everyone I spoke to was of same and similar mind?
QUEST (on camera): Leaving?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Out.
QUEST: Sir?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Leave.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Out.
QUEST (voice-over): They want out of the European Union and they blame immigration and the loss of sovereignty.
QUEST: Was the driving force for you for this out?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: One is immigration and the other just to take back our own country. You know, and have it for what we want to do. Not being
rolled in by other countries.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Our forefathers fought and died to keep this country free and now we're going back to Germany.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't mind immigration as long as it's -- as long as it's organized. We don't want people just flapping in.
[16:45:10] QUEST (on camera): The irony, of course, in all of this is the international nature of something like fruit and veg. So here we have New
Zealand apples. You have Spanish oranges and peaches. The strawberries come from the Netherlands and these peaches come from Greece. In fact, on
this market day it was pretty hard to find anyone who was prepared to say they want it to remain in the EU. We persevered.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It was the overwhelming balance of the argument favors us benefiting from the economic advantage of being part of the EU. We
gain, we gain, we gain, we gain all the time.
QUEST (voice-over): Along West Street many shops have Euro in their name. The owners and the employees are mainly from Eastern Europe, particularly
the Baltic states. You'll not be surprised that they are concerned at the result of next week's vote. Boston may not be typical. The level of
immigration here is much higher than elsewhere in the U.K., but the views that we heard are to be found in many parts of Britain. But it's these
people that are now seemingly in the lead.
QUEST (on camera): Our trusty camper van from the 1970s is the very best of British engineering that was around at its time. Runs superbly,
beautifully designed. Now for today's British design, in the same mold and with a connection between these two vehicles, the Aston Martin Rapide.
I'll explain why they are related.
QUEST (voice-over): The Rapide is the perfect way to arrive at the Aston Martin factory. Here in the showroom there's the range of cars to feast
on. From the top of the range Vanquish to the Vantage, the Rapide and those extremely expensive limited edition models costing more than $1
million.
QUEST (on camera): A walk along this street at the Aston Martin factory shows the depth of engineering here. Take for example the Lagonda. One of
the Lagonda models was actually designed by Williamstown who also designed our splendid Bedford camper van. As we go through the years and look at
the models, you really experience the deep range of motor manufacturing that goes back more than a century. The chief executive is adamant. He
will remain neutral as far as his employees are concerned. They have to make their own decisions on Brexit. However, he does recognize that if the
U.K. leaves and there could be tariffs and barriers that make Aston Martin less competitive.
ANDY PALMER, CEO, ASTON MARTIN: Instability is always bad when it comes to selling cars. We know that from many crises. So generally speaking there
will be instability. Now the question is, and this is the personal question, which I think you can't impose on anybody. If you accept that
there is going to be some negatives on your industry and you accept there's going to be instability in the market and it could cause up difficulties in
the short term, are you prepared to trade that for sovereignty and immigration rights and et cetera, et cetera? And corporately I can't
answer that for people.
QUEST: But that is the issue, isn't it?
PALMER: That is the issue.
QUEST: That's the core issue in this referendum.
PALMER: Yes. Absolutely. And it's a very personal discussion, isn't it? It's a very personal choice. I think we shouldn't kid anybody that it
isn't going to make industries job harder. It will. Now bear in mind that today the British car industry, frankly, has never had it so good. You've
got some of the most efficient labor in the world. You've got a weak sterling. You've got terror free barriers. So anything that changes that
status quo the car companies aren't going to like. Now, as you change that status quo is really going to be, are the tariffs in place? You can listen
to the noise. You can make your own decisions. Will sterling weaken? Probably, yes. But how long for?
QUEST (voice-over): while the Aston Martin's chief executive might be keeping his cards close to his chest. The chairman of Stoke-on-Trent
Football Club most definitely isn't.
[16:50:07] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST (voice-over): Now time to head west in my trusty camper van. I'm going to Stoke-on-Trent. Peter Coates is the chairman of the local Premier
League team, Stoke City Football Club. It's his belief that the club, the league and the whole of British football would likely be damaged by an EU
exit.
QUEST (on camera): One of the arguments for remain is that it is -- it will be -- it remains easier for you to employ other European players.
You've got Senegalese players. You can get non-EU visas. So why are you concerned on the prospect of the visa question?
PETER COATES, CHAIRMAN, STOKE CITY FOOTBALL CLUB: The fact is if they are in Europe and got European passports, we simply do not have a problem.
They just come. And if we're out of Europe, that situation changes. So it's fairly straightforward, basically. So what we've got now works very
well for us. What we'll have in the future should we leave, won't be anything like so good and we will definitely find it more difficult. And
the other European football countries will be pleased because they are rather envious of the success of the premier league.
QUEST: Your costs go up, though, to buy players overseas --
COATES: Clearly.
QUEST: -- If sterling goes downs. Is that a concern?
COATES: Of course, yes. It is a concern. You know, I mean, they'll be the counter argument it helps exports. On the other hand, I think a strong
pound usually indicates a strong economy.
QUEST: For your main business, that 365, I was trying to work out is it a positive or a negative?
COATES: It's a negative for us.
Why?
COATES: Well, 40 percent of our business is in Europe and growing. We have to have licenses in these other countries. We're a very heavily
regulated industry. We don't complain about that, but we are. And we have to have licenses in all the countries where we operate. They are
complicated and difficult to get. We've got them and don't know what's going to happen to them and we might lose them.
QUEST: But those licenses are national licenses in the various individual countries.
COATES: Correct.
QUEST: As opposed to a pan European license, so that's not going to change for you, chairman.
COATES: We don't know. The uncertainty is one of the problems. We simply don't know how should we exit? How things like that will play out? All we
do know is we've got a very good market in Europe and it can be jeopardized, could be affected.
QUEST: Do you fear fundamentally if the vote is no that the Europeans are going to do everything they possibly can, maybe not with malice, and they
may have other intent, basically to say, all right, you've gone and now we're going to make life hard for you?
QUEST: I can't see how they are going to want to go out of their way to make it easy for us. Simply, perhaps other countries will think we'll have
a bit of that. When I was very young there's an old expression that you can't have your cake and eat it and I think it applies a bit to Europe. We
want everything that suits us and none of the less attractive things, and life isn't like that. And this argument about being able to trade with
other people around the world, very simple way of putting it. I'm a business man. Would I have a better hand to play with representing 500
million or 65 million? It's a bit of a no-brainer, isn't it?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
[16:55:00] QUEST: Ah, good television. Now, a cup of tea, and we're really set for the night as the election gets set to get under way with
voting beginning in just a few hours from now. Meanwhile, have a think about what we should do with Freddy Brexit, our camper van. Any
suggestions on what we should do @richardquest, sell it for charity, dump it or just keep it as a souvenir? QUEST MEANS BUSINESS a Profitable Moment
after the break and a cup of tea. Mmm, delicious.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Tonight's Profitable Moment. I freely admit I don't know how I'm going to vote in tomorrow's U.K. referendum. I hear George Soros talking
apocalypse financial, and I immediately think I'm a remainer. I then hear others talk about how we can be unshackled from Europe, and I immediately
decide I must be Brexitier. I wish I could go into the ballot box tomorrow with the fervent view of the Brexit or the committed certainty of "Remain".
But it's those elections where you really don't know how to vote that really show the mettle of the electorate. The truth is this is the most
important vote I will cast probably in my life. Yes, I will vote, but whether my head or my heart wins, well, that I don't know.
And that's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS for this Wednesday night. I'm Richard Quest aboard Freddy Brexit. Whatever you're up to in the hours ahead, I
hope it's profitable. I'll see you tomorrow.
END
