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Quest Means Business

President To Cut Funding To The W.H.O.; Trump Announces Council To Help Reopen U.S. Economy; Amazon To Temporarily Halt Operations In France. Aired 3-3:30p ET

Aired April 15, 2020 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:00]

RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS ANCHOR, QUEST MEANS BUSINESS: ... leaders say they will freeze some debt for the hardest hit countries in the developing

world. G-20 Finance Ministers have just finished a meeting.

Amazon says it will close some of its French distribution centers after a court order. We will understand why. And the worst slump in history. The

retail sales numbers in the United States, simply dreadful. The sort of numbers one never thought one would see.

We're live from New York on Wednesday. It is the 15th of April. I'm Richard Quest. On the rooftop, I mean business.

A very good evening to you. As governments around the world are fighting the global pandemic, they've also been defending the W.H.O. against attacks

from President Trump. There's been criticism from all sides after the U.S. President said that he wanted to cut funding for the W.H.O., or U.S.

funding that is, as the United States investigates the W.H.O. and the organization's role as it relates to China and the pandemic. Health experts

are calling it dangerous and short-sighted.

The W.H.O. for itself says it's getting on with the job. It will assess the impacts of losing $400 million or so in budget. But the W.H.O. Director was

quite clear what the agency's role is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE RYAN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: The idea of having a defense at this point seems rather strange. In the first weeks of

January, W.H.O. was very, very clear. We alerted the world on January the 5th. Systems around the world, including the U.S. began to activate their

incident management systems on January the 6th.

And through the next number of weeks, we've produced multiple updates to countries, including briefing multiple governments, multiple scientists

around the world on the developing situation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: Now, Bill Gates described this as being just as dangerous as it sounds. Half a trillion -- or $500 million, I beg your pardon, would be

taken off from the W.H.O. This is assessing the impact of it and how the money is spent.

The U.S. contribution actually in total is about $900.00 million, just shy of a billion. That's ahead of the Gates Foundation and the United Kingdom.

The U.S. money, because much of the contribution is voluntary, it goes towards polio eradication, basic healthcare access and vaccines. Now, if

there's one person who knows about the W.H.O. and this story backwards, it is Professor Jeffrey Sachs, who is the Director of the Columbia University

Center for Sustainable Development. Jeffrey Sachs is with me now.

Jeffrey, we'll deal with the politics and we'll deal with the reasons why, but simply on the facts, how damaging, if it will be, when the U.S.

withdraws its voluntary funding of some $400 to $500 million?

JEFFREY SACHS, DIRECTOR, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: I think the W.H.O. will manage because others will come to

fill the gap. The real disgrace and loss is the United States itself, a country that at times has been a world leader is now a world renegade, at a

time when the whole world needs to work together to fight the most devastating pandemic of modern history, the united states is taking an

antagonistic role, that as you pointed out, puts the U.S. alone against the whole world.

It's not where we should be and it's a disgraceful action. It was called by some a crime against humanity. It is beyond belief, actually, if you think

about it, that Trump would act this way.

QUEST: Well, except, of course, he did unilaterally pull the U.S. out of Paris against the rest of the world and he has introduced tariffs which

universally have been pretty condemned.

Jeffrey, in an article on Sunday, on the 12th, let me read what you wrote about the W.H.O. You say, "The answer is national leadership and public

health readiness, not to attack the W.H.O., which was reporting to all countries at the same time and in the same way."

So are you saying that the criticism of the W.H.O., that it was too favorable to China, are you saying that that is not a valid criticism?

[15:05:01]

SACHS: What I'm saying is that the U.S. disaster is at Trump's hands, the U.S. has the most deaths in the world. We have had a soaring epidemic. Many

countries have kept this from becoming an epidemic. They've contained it early on, especially the East Asian countries.

The United States was privy to the same information, but Trump ignored it, downplayed it, told us time and again everything is fine, saying it would

miraculously disappear in April.

Trump's actions are the ones that need the investigation and scrutiny. History will judge him as having presided over the worst security breakdown

in American history.

QUEST: But leaders in Congress, Republican leaders in Congress are supporting what the president is planning on doing with the W.H.O. It

seems, Jeffrey, that no amount of opprobrium heaped on his head over this will make a difference.

SACHS: I don't think it will make a difference to Trump or to the Republicans, I agree with you. The U.S. is as you noted, an outlier on

almost everything in the international scene right now. It's not only this. The Republican Party has become virulent in its attack on global

cooperation.

So it's not only on this pandemic. It's just so shocking in the midst of this, but so much of this particular action is because Trump knows -- I

don't know what he knows. We can never be sure.

But Trump's record is a disaster on this, so he is trying to deflect responsibility and blame.

QUEST: Okay, Jeffrey, we'll talk more about this because we do need to talk again as this continues about why the U.S. has the largest number of

cases and we're roughly heading towards death. Thank you, Jeffrey Sachs, who is with us.

The big debate of course that you'll be aware, we've talked about it on this program, is how to open up the various economies. In the United

States, President Trump has appointed an economic panel of business leaders that he says will give guidance, sectoral guidance is the way they will be

broken down.

But the size and scale of it, 200 of the country's top business leaders or companies are involved. They'll be broken down into committees. They are

the same disbanded names as when the original Business Council is, little explanation of the role.

John Harwood is with me, White House correspondent. John, I was listening carefully to the list. Any clue as to how this is going to work? These are

great companies, there's just about everybody, including the kitchen sink.

JOHN HARWOOD, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I think, Richard, this is mostly window dressing, because the answer to opening up is not going to be

a sectoral economic answer, it's going to be a virological answer. It is going to be what happens on the public health aspect of this.

I do think there was some encouraging news from the first call that the President had this afternoon with business leaders, including leaders from

banking. My colleague, Vivian Salama reports that the business leaders told the President that the condition for them to reopen is a massive upscaling

of testing.

This is universally agreed by public health experts. We need a much larger scale of testing, both of symptomatic people, but also for surveillance

purposes, and then contact tracing.

The President yesterday in his briefing in the Rose Garden, when he was asked about this, said well, that's up to the states. I'm not doing it. The

fact that he's getting that message from business leaders suggests that they understand the reality like the public health authorities do, and are

going to try to drag President Trump into reality even if he doesn't want to be there.

QUEST: Right. Now, John, I was listening to the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo, who was giving a lot of detail about the logistics, those businesses

that can open that are the nonessentials, but more essential, and then the way in which you have to check the risk against, but the President still

seems to want to open the economy, if he can, by May the 1st. What's the latest thinking?

HARWOOD: Well, yes, he wants to, but he can't. He cannot open up the economy if Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, and Andrew Cuomo, the

Governor of New York, say it's not safe.

We heard from Jamie Diamond this week saying he wouldn't send his people back to work in the beginning of May, because we don't have the kind of

testing and intelligence regime in place to do that.

So yes, the President wants to. Yes, he's trying to service the importuning of various business people, thinking about all the money that

they're losing right now, and the President himself has lamented, he did yesterday, oh, I had such a great economy before this coronavirus came

along and he was running for re-election and he thought that's what was going to get him through.

[15:10:39]

HARWOOD: Well, he doesn't have that economy anymore. He's not going to have that economy until the public health situation is under control, and

it is encouraging if business leaders are sending him that message.

QUEST: John, we'll talk more about these business groups and the opening and the business side. Thank you, sir. Always grateful to have your input.

Now to Amazon, which today has announced it is suspending activities at its warehouses or fulfillment centers, as they call them, in France. It was a

French Court ruling. The judge ordered Amazon to stop delivery of nonessential goods or face a daily fine of more than a million dollars.

Hadas Gold is in London. Hadas, in the United States and I think in the U.K., there is an announcement on Amazon that says that priority will be

given to essential items. So what's the French -- what does the French judge -- what problem do they have with this?

HADAS GOLD, CNN BUSINESS REPORTER: This all comes down, Richard, to the health and safety of the employees. These are complaints we've heard also

in the United States from Amazon warehouse employees claiming that Amazon is not doing enough to protect them from coronavirus.

Of course, as we've seen demand for Amazon absolutely skyrocket, there are complaints from some workers that there is not -- they are not being given

enough protective equipment, there's not enough social distancing in the warehouses. So this court ruling actually stems from a complaint by some

workers unions in France and the ruling came down on Tuesday that Amazon had to suspend all but the essential deliveries while a thorough assessment

of the health and safety of the employees in the French warehouses was being determined.

Now, Amazon says they have already instituted measures such as temperature checks and protective equipment and they say they are perplexed by this

decision. But pretty much it came down to the 1 million euro per day fine, it was just too much for them.

And so they are suspending temporarily all the activities of their warehouses in France. So that means obviously that people in France aren't

going to be able to get some of the deliveries that they wanted because of the suspension.

Now, third-party sellers for Amazon France will still be able to sell through their global distribution network. It is a little bit different

than from their direct warehouses, this is obviously a huge blow to Amazon and of course Amazon will say, a huge blow to their customers there who are

relying on them for deliveries.

But this is part of this conflict we're seeing between employees at some of these companies that are so important to so many people right now that are

doing what some are calling essential work, and the workers who are saying that they are not being protected enough during this current pandemic --

Richard.

QUEST: Thank you, Hadas Gold. Thank you for that.

Now, in just a moment, the E.U. is looking to reopen and they're getting the best policy decisions they can.

After the break, the Finance Minister of Luxembourg joins me on the direction, how and when an economy can reopen.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:16:10]

QUEST: Now, Germany is to start reopening on Monday. As with other countries, it will be done slowly and with great care and attention. So it

will be shops smaller than 800 square meters may reopen.

The government will advise wearing masks, facemasks in public, and large events are banned until August the 31st. August the 31st, so for large

events. The Chancellor, Bundeschancellor Angela Merkel of course says social distancing is a must.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANGELA MERKEL, GERMAN CHANCELLOR (through translator): On the one hand, we have said that shops up to 800 square meters can open, but only with good

hygiene precautions in place and we have to make sure there aren't long queues on the outside. That's part of their responsibility, too, and will

require a lot of preparation, too.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: Now, the E.U. Commission is wanting to ensure that member countries coordinate with each other so that one person isn't just -- or one country

isn't just shoving a problem to somebody else.

So the roadmap is calling for a gradual transition. After each transitional step, there will be a pause to assess, after a month-long, and avoid chaos

that accompanied the closures.

Pierre Gramegna is the Luxembourg Finance Minister. He joins me now. Minister, thank you, the opening -- what is becoming clear is that the

opening will be in many ways far trickier than the closure, which was just simply bring down the doors. What's your understanding of how long and how

difficult?

PIERRE GRAMEGNA, LUXEMBOURG FINANCE MINISTER: Well, Richard, good to see you. It was already very difficult to decide partial lockdown of the

economy a couple of weeks back for many countries. What we know today is that those countries who took early decisions are also reaping early

fruits. So that's the first lesson.

The second one is that now we can only open on the step-by-step basis. That means progressively. Now, not all of the countries are at the same stage in

the pandemic, but I think that's what we all have as a common denominator, that we do it step-by-step.

In Luxembourg, we are reopening construction works for example next week and then on the 11th of May, we are going to reopen progressively the

schools. So I think that's the recipe.

QUEST: And in terms of helping other countries, I noticed the G-20 in its communique now today, the Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors,

they're talking about the coordinated activity that needs to take place.

Within the Union, there have been -- every country has done its own thing. Are you satisfied there has been sufficient coordination between countries?

GRAMEGNA: Well, obviously at the beginning of the crisis, everybody was in a kind of emergency and took national measures. But in the aftermath, in

the matter of weeks, we've been able at the level of Finance Ministers and Prime Ministers to agree on also European measures in financial and

economic matters.

So we have agreed last week more than half a trillion package for financial and economic measures, and this adds up to the national measures, so that

today, if you look at Europe, I think we have assembled a lot of fire power quite similar, if not superior, to what the United States has decided.

And on top of that, you have to realize that social protection, I mean, the social net that we have in Europe, is being added to all of this.

[15:20:16]

QUEST: So would you be in favor of debt relief for the developing world? Because the G-20 Finance Ministers also talks about the concessionary loans

and the measures that will be necessary for the developing world.

So to put it crudely, you can't lumber them up with more debt. Something is going to have to give.

GRAMEGNA: Well, one has to be realistic here. When you see the depth of the crisis on developed countries, how much European countries and the

United States need to lend to overcome the sanitary crisis and to go for recovery, you realize that in countries that are already burdened by debt

and that are developing countries, you have to do something.

So as Luxembourg, we subscribed to the goal that has been achieved and discussed at the G-20 today. I think this is a great achievement of

solidarity and Luxembourg subscribes to it.

QUEST: Minister, it is always good to talk to you. Thank you, sir, for joining us.

GRAMEGNA: Thanks.

QUEST: Eighteen European and African leaders have issued a stark warning to the rest of the world. If coronavirus is not defeated in Africa, it will

return to haunt us all. That's what they are saying.

Now, they are calling on the W.H.O., the World Bank and others to create a joint action plan. Africa needs a stimulus package. Those numbers involve

at least $100 billion.

The I.M.F. is also calling for an action plan. Eleni Giokos is with me from Johannesburg. So Eleni, we are in this -- we've been here before. There is

plenty of calls for an action plan, but who is going to provide it and when is it likely to arrive?

ELENI GIOKOS, CNN BUSINESS AFRICA CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I mean, that's the big question, right? I mean, the first step is that you've got 18 African

leaders and European leaders, including by the way, Emmanuel Macron, the French President and Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor talking about

this coordinated action and response to the pandemic in Africa.

They're talking about debt relief and importantly, also, $100 billion stimulus package.

Now, the big question is, who is going to put money on the table. So hopefully through some debt relief that is going to open some fiscal space.

But there's a huge funding gap.

Now, you mentioned the World Health Organization. The leaders are talking about an action plan that should be put together by the W.H.O., as well as

the World Bank and other institutions.

Now, we've got a very big problem here. The W.H.O. is facing funding being halted and pulled by the United States, which it's the biggest funder, $400

million is at risk.

The important work that the W.H.O. does on the ground is usually in vulnerable countries, specifically in Africa. So someone either needs to

step in and fill that funding gap, Richard, or perhaps Trump needs to rethink this.

QUEST: You know, I've got a horrible -- I've just got a horrible sinking feeling, Eleni that everybody knows that something needs to be done, and

the sums involved are relatively small vis-a-vis what developed countries are putting into their own economies.

But there is no capacity in Africa, there is no spare capacity to actually handle this crisis.

GIOKOS: Absolutely. In fact, I was just thinking about the trillions of dollars that the United States is able to stimulate its economy with and

then I think about the $100 billion that African Finance Ministers are talking about that is going to be needed to deal with the pandemic on the

continent and I just think there's a huge disparity in a place where already the health system is so stretched.

So I think a lot more money is going to be needed and assistance from global institutions. I mean, the big question about debt relief and debt

forgiveness is going to be a serious one. You're going to have low economic growth which of course naturally increases your debt ratios.

And then of course you're also sitting with the probability of a default. This is why the I.M.F. has come out again today and said, look, Sub Saharan

Africa is going to be facing its first recession in 25 years. People need to come in and help, and if we don't deal with the pandemic in Africa, it

is going to haunt us globally.

QUEST: Briefly, I just want to finish on the health side of it, Eleni. Give me a very brief overview in terms of infections, hospitalizations and

deaths, is there a feeling in some of these Sub Saharan African countries that it is not under control, but it is -- they are not out of control yet?

[15:25:06]

GIOKOS: Yes, I mean, look, this is what is interesting and experts have said this. Cases in Africa are relatively low. You're looking at around

12,000. South Africa, the hardest hit, purely because they say we are, of course, testing a lot more.

So testing is a problem, Richard. Knowing what is going on specifically in the rural areas is a problem. So if you can get help and technical

assistance on the ground, you'll have a better indication of what is going on.

And that of course is only going to come in the next few weeks. Remember, Africa is a lot further behind than the rest of the world. We still have

not reached our peak yet, the point is we want to keep the curve as low as possible.

QUEST: Eleni, we'll talk more. This is a priority here on QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, absolute priority that we will continue to look closely at what's

happening in the developing world as this continues. Thank you.

Joe Stiglitz will be with me after the break. This is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS and there it is, the trillion dollar view. The Empire State, that's the one

in the middle. To the right is the Chrysler Building in all its glory. And before the end of the week I'll have found out what all the other buildings

are. This is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS from New York.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: Hello, I'm Richard Quest. There's more QUEST MEANS BUSINESS in just a moment. The Director of the International Energy Agency will be with me.

We're going to be talking about oil, of course, and what's happening with that.

Now, the deal is being done, what the future means and the future direction.

And also, Joseph Stiglitz will be with us. The plight of the poor in all of this, the inequality which seems to be exacerbated and has become ever more

clear.

This is CNN, and on this network, the facts always come first. Here's the news.

[15:30:00]

QUEST: The World Health Organization says it's getting on with the job after President Trump ordered a halt in U.S. funding, defending its earlier

actions, fighting coronavirus, coordinating with other partners to fill in gaps and ensure work continues uninterrupted. Some researchers say social

distancing could remain a way of life in the U.S. until 2022. A study comes from the Harvard School of Public Health.

It says restrictions could be lifted sooner by adding critical health care capacity or finding a vaccine. That vaccine might arrive sooner than first

thought. A research at the National Institutes of Health gave this optimistic timeline.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. KIZZMEKIA CORBETT, LEAD RESEARCHER AT NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF HEALTH: We are targeting -- oh, I'm sorry. We're talking -- targeting fall for the

emergency use. So, that would be you know, for health care workers and people who might be in constant contact and in risk of being exposed over

and over. And then for the general population, our target goal is for next spring, and that is If all things go well, and at least phase one and phase

two and phase three clinical trials work simultaneously for the good. Our plan is to have people vaccinated all over the world by next spring.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: Presenting to our top story, leaders in Europe and United States are deciding how and when to reopen their economies to ensure that they do so

in a safe fashion. European leaders particularly are trying to coordinate with our roadmap being put forward by the E.U. Commission. The IMF Managing

director says that people want and European countries want to coordinate their actions.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA, MANAGING DIRECTOR, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND: What I believe is necessary is to communicate clearly that it is a common threat

and it does require common action. And I can tell you, being an European myself having served in the European Commission, that this is what European

people want from their leaders, come together, come together, help each other, help us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: Joe Stiglitz is the former chief economist of the World Bank. He's also the author of People Power and Profits, Progressive Capitalism for an

Age of Discontent. Professor joins me now. Always good to have you, sir. Thank you. I appreciate you giving us the time. Look, the inequality was

bad before. But what this is shown across a range of data, is that it's getting worse. Take for example, the fact here in the United States, the

number of African-Americans who have been adversely affected by COVID and suffering, is not just disproportionate, it is offensively larger.

JOSEPH STIGLITZ, FORMER CHIEF ECONOMIST, WORLD BANK: You're absolutely right. And that reflects the fact that the United States has the largest

health inequalities of any of the advanced countries. And the health inequalities are larger than the income and wealth inequalities. Partly

because we are the only advanced country that doesn't recognize access to health care as a basic human right. And because we don't have a good public

health system so evident and what we've been going through, it means that those of low income suffer the most.

QUEST: When we look at this debate now, between how and when to reopen the economies, it's not a zero-sum game. I understand that. Open the U.S. --

open the economy too soon, the health issue gets worse and vice versa (INAUDIBLE) wrote about the sort of the circular nature of this argument.

How do you see it from an economics point of view, this debate?

STIGLITZ: Well, I think the analysis which emphasizes that the economy can't open up really fully, until the pandemic is under much better control

than just today. That is absolutely right. People are not going to go and start consuming, if they're worried, if they go to the restaurant and

they're going to airplane, that they're going to get a disease, and people are even going to be uncomfortable going to work.

So, the reality is, it isn't a lockdown. It's the fact that the disease is discouraging us from both producing and consuming. So, that's why the first

priority ought to be making sure that pandemic is under control. And that means, first priority is getting tests, supporting our hospitals,

supporting our states, which are at the frontline.

[15:35:10]

And we haven't been doing that.

QUEST: Do you foresee, oh, well, I suppose the answer is yes, there is going to be, but how much longstanding deep structural systemic damage done

to economies, that two, three, four years down the road, we still will not have made up that income gap.

STIGLITZ: Well, a lot of this is going to depend on how long these pandemic lasts and I'm getting on the more pessimistic side. And it's also going to

depend on how effective our measures are going to be. Now, the fact of the matter is, that while the United States is spending boodles of money more

than others, two -- over $2 trillion, the way we spent it is not as effective as other countries.

So, if you look at the data that just came out from the IMF a couple of days ago, you see, United States is leading the world in unemployment,

we're worse than other countries, it's not a way we thought we were going to lead the world. Other countries have managed their way through the

pandemic so far, even though they started earlier in the disease, they've kept their unemployment rate much lower than the United States. And that

means the households will be devastated.

And the same thing goes for the assistance to the corporations. There -- we've already spent a very large fraction of the money for small

businesses, it's not going to be enough. We didn't have a clear set of priorities.

QUEST: So, with that -- with that in mind, the next stage of fiscal stimulus, the President wants the next as the United States. He wants it to

be on infrastructure. Of course, there are certain problems about that, in that it's a slow burner. And as a stimulus plan, where do you think the

next stage of the stimulus that even the IMF says, will be necessary? How would you fashion that program?

STIGLITZ: Well, I would begin with what are the big gaps that we didn't address before. And I've already mentioned one, the assistance to the state

and local governments that are on the frontline. One of the things that we didn't do before is provide assistance to the large NGOs, to the

educational institutions, the research institutions, which are so essential for long run prosperity.

The other thing that's actually related to our health status is that while Congress recognized the importance of a sickly -- paid sick leave, they

exempted under the influence of appropriate corporations, they exempted 80 percent of our workers. That's something that needs to be dealt with

urgently.

QUEST: Good to see you, sir. Thank you for taking time today. We appreciate it on QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. After the break, we're going to talk oil, the

executive director of the IEA, International Energy Agency, will be with us. The deal of OPEC plus, 10 -- 9.7 million barrels. Will it stick? That's

the big question. It's after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:40:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: Welcome back. QUEST MEANS BUSINESS from the roof. If it's all a bit windy. Not sure where that wind is coming from, but it's certainly managed

to build itself up and is blowing again. Now, oil prices are down on plummeting demand. We've known that demand was going to be off very sharply

and that's why OPEC plus came to the deal that they did take 9.7 million barrels out of the market. It clearly isn't enough.

Joining me now is Fatih Birol, he's the executive director of the International Energy Agency. Good to have you, sir. The demand has

collapsed, we know that, but they'd hoped taking this much oil out of the supply would marry that up. That doesn't seem to be the case.

FATIH BIROL, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY: No, in fact, it did drop in demand, would be even more damaging for the industry.

Without recent announcements, announcements from the OPEC plus countries, as well as some of the G20 countries. Production is in a decline such as

United States, Canada, Norway, Brazil, but it only limited damage on the industry and have to shave the peak of the damage.

QUEST: Now, if -- whereas economies get started again, and there is an uptick in demand, it won't be huge. I'll grant you that, sir. It won't be

huge. Do you think the OPEC plus agreement will hold?

BIROL: So, first of all, let me try to put this demand decline in a context. What we expect is, this year, demand will decline about 9 million

barrels per day. And this would mean that we are wiping out, erasing the increase in the oil demand, global oil demand in the last decade almost.

For example, we look at the global economy, global economy IMF expects declining three percent this year, which is raising one year of growth of

last year, 2019.

But when it comes to oil, it means almost a decade is erased. There's a disproportionate impact. Now, we may see the second half of this year, if

the compliance from the OPEC countries, OPEC plus current is hundred percent. Plus, if we see as a result of relaxation of the confinement in

many countries, economic activities start to move, we may see second half, that would be some upside pressure under a crisis.

QUEST: But the United States in all of this becomes the crucial actor. If prices go up, then the nontraditional methods, the U.S. shale starts to

come back on stream again. Now, look, I know this is perhaps theoretical, as many of them are looking to go out of business, but if prices go back

into the 40s, which nobody is forecasting just yet. Then the U.S. production becomes profitable again.

[15:45:07]

BIROL: I completely agree with you. First of all, the U.S. shale industry is going through devastating times for the time being. But if the prices

come around $40.00 a barrel, we may well see a revival, slowly but surely, a revival of U.S. shale industry. It is the reason why I said for those

countries who started the price wars, especially well-off those countries said our aim is wiping out shale. And I said this is playing Russian

roulette.

And we may well see that the U.S. shale may come back, with the prices going above 40, staying there for some time. Because geology is there

(INAUDIBLE) industry is there, we may well see it coming back.

QUEST: Good to see you, sir. Thank you. We'll talk more about this as it progresses and we see more. Now, one of the biggest users, of course, of

oil is the aviation industry and airlines in the United States have received the first tranches of their bailout over $25 billion from the U.S.

government, from the treasury. American United, Delta, Southwest, have all reached agreement with the treasury, but the money isn't all a grant, some

of it is, are loan. and there will be convertible warrants, too, that would allow the U.S. government to take a share.

Ultimately, though, as Alisson is with me, ultimately, though, as i understand it, the ground bit goes to wages, anything else is a loan.

ALISON KOSIK, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Right. So, as you said, this is not all handout, it's a mix of grants, it's a mix of low-interest loans.

So, the airlines have to repay about 30 percent of it, but 70 percent is that grant money and it's that combo actually, Richard, that airlines and

unions had heavily resisted and that's part of the reason it took so long for this deal to go through.

And, of course, you know, this, the cash comes with conditions. They've agreed to not lay off workers, plus airlines have to refrain from buying

back their shares, paying dividends through September of next year. And they also have to agree to limit on executive pay until March of 2022,

Richard.

QUEST: Alison, thank you. An update there on the airline industry. After the break, the voices of the crisis. Today, we're going to Ghana. It's a

cosmetics company and we'll be talking to the CEO to see how business has just disappeared, but again, trying to keep employees on if they can, after

the break. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:50:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: So, to our voices of the crisis, and we go to Africa, to Ghana, for today's voice of the crisis. The company is Kaeme. It's a cosmetics

company. Soap, candles, shea butter. Now, most of the sales are in store that and, of course, there is a bit of online selling, but it's pretty much

down 95 percent. Freda Obeng-Ampofo is the founder and chief mixer and she joins me now on the line.

So, you are -- you've -- the thing I find fascinating, besides the projects of what you make in your -- in your shop and in your business, is that

you've managed to keep your staff on, as best you can. How have you done that?

FREDA OBENG-AMPOFO, FOUNDER AND CHIEF MIXER, KAEME: Well, we first and foremost, thank you for having me on the show. Our employees are our

biggest assets, and therefore, you know, we put a lot of training into them. And so, once we have them, they're good. We like them for -- to stay

for as long as possible. So, during such a crisis, it's really important that we make sure that they can survive. So, we're just kind of using

reserves to keep paying them until we get to the point where we can no longer do it.

But we know -- we've been communicating with them and they know exactly how we're making these decisions. So, if unfortunately, we get to the point

where we're not able to pay them, they will -- they will understand where we're going because they have been part of our decision making since

inception, and you know, they're with us throughout.

QUEST: Even trying to do online sales, obviously the shop is closed, but even your online sales, I was just reading, the difficulty you've got

trying to get anything anywhere.

OBENG-AMPOFO: Yes, it's very difficult because obviously people can't go out. So, when people order online, you still have to send packaged product

to the dispatch company or the logistics company to ship it abroad. So, fortunately for us, we have some leeway in terms of, you know, our soaps

can be used to wash our hands, you know, it's part of the whole COVID protect preventative measures. So, soap, in a way, can be considered as an

essential item.

So, we use that as a measure to try and get some of our products out to our online customers. Which by the way, has been one of the ways that we're

getting the little revenue that we can squeeze through this time to make sure that we can still stay alive.

QUEST: You started this business. You've, obviously, I mean, like every small business has hit this most tremendous roadblock. I'm guessing that

there aren't the same opportunities for government assistance to you, in Ghana. Maybe there will be elsewhere. Will your business survive?

OBENG-AMPOFO: I'm sorry, I did not hear your question well. The last bit of the question.

QUEST: I guess, really, I just need to know. Will your business survive? Do you think? Will you be able to make it?

OBENG-AMPOFO: I think we will make it. I'm very optimistic. I feel like these are just hard and challenging times and it's global. Everybody's

going through the same process. And I'm very, very confident that Kaeme will make it out of this. And when we do make it out of this, it will make

us even stronger.

In the meantime, we're really tapping into everything we can, really engaging with our customers online, doing Instagram live, checking in with

our customers, and just engaging with them to let them know that we're still there and we still care about them through these times and trying to

get as much sales as possible.

QUEST: I find that absolutely heartwarming, to be honest, Freda, that the optimism, the positivity. Listen, I've been promising to visit every shop,

every restaurant that we focused on. I'm not going to be able to visit you in Ghana, but will you promise me, I'll pay, I'll pay, you'll send me some

soaps and candles in the post.

OBENG-AMPOFO: Absolutely. And we can get -- not only we can get it to you in three days, but because of (INAUDIBLE) we'll probably give you two weeks

to get it to you. That's very easy. We -- and we do honor our promises at Kaeme --

QUEST: Good.

OBENG-AMPOFO: -- because --

[15:55:06]

QUEST: I'll leave -- I'll leave you to choose -- I'll leave you to choose the flavors and the scents and everything like that. And we'll show them on

the show when they arrive in happy times. What an honor to have you on the program tonight. I'm so grateful. Thank you very much for joining us from

Ghana tonight. I promise you we will show exactly the voice of the crisis @RichardQuest. If you've got a voice of the crisis, richard.quest@cnn.com.

Extraordinary times need extraordinary measures and there's no reason you shouldn't have my e-mail address where you can get ahold of me directly.

And believe me, that goes right through to my phone. Richard.quest@cnn.com. We're going to have a look at the markets before we leave you tonight.

Well, it's not surprising that the debate and the battle over when and how economies should be opened, we had retail sales numbers today.

We didn't dwell on them tonight because J.P. Morgan basically points out it's not surprising retail sales are in the toilet and it will take more

than toilet paper sales to clean them up. That's how they put it in their - - in their report. And -- but it does show you exactly the situation. Retail sales were dreadful. But I think, look, leave you with a thought.

Let's just have a bit of the optimism of people like Freda. Her business may be in terrible times, but she believes she will succeed and she will

prosper. I've still got the bell. And that's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS for tonight. I'm Richard Quest in New York. Whatever you're up to in the hours

ahead, I hope it is profitable. Leave you with New York.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

END