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Quest Means Business

4.4 Million Americans Filed Fresh Unemployment Claims Last Week; Bill Gates Warning That The U.S. Is Not Ready To Reopen; E.U. Commission President Says Members Must Work Together For A Recovery; Gilead Shares Tumble On Antiviral Drug Report; Emirates To Restart Limited Flight Schedule; IATA Warns Of Slow Recovery For Travel Industry; Columbian Flower Business Faces Uncertainty. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired April 23, 2020 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[150:00:00]

RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS ANCHOR: Well, if you look at the graph, you get an idea. Good gains and they evaporated and now, they are back. We are

up by one percent, so the market is bullish. That's over 22,700.

Those are the numbers. Those are the markets and these are the reasons why. Top U.S. employers say they are struggling to stay in business, as once

again, the number of unemployed and they're blaming the jobless benefit increases by more than four million.

E.U. leaders say that they will need a trillion euros and a fund will be needed to be that big to rescue Europe's economy.

And the drug maker, Gilead shares fall after admitting inconclusive results from one of its drug trials.

Live from New York, on Thursday, April the 23rd, I'm Richard Quest, in the living room, of course, and I mean business.

Good evening, we've got fresh numbers today on the number of Americans who are now claiming unemployment benefits. Over the last seven days, another

4.4 million Americans were added to the list, taking the total to over 26 million.

That means all the jobs that have been created since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 have now disappeared.

But the 4.4 million was less than the five million, which was less than the six million of previous weeks. Even so, the numbers are still horrifyingly

large.

CNN's and "First Move's" Julia Chatterley is with me to look at the numbers. These are still 20 times more than at pre-crisis, and the states

are struggling to keep up.

But what do they really tell us? Because I sort of -- I mean, these numbers are desperate in themselves, but they are expected because the economy is

shut down deliberately.

JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN BUSINESS ANCHOR, "FIRST MOVE": It's staggering, the numbers that we're seeing, Richard, but to your point, it's precisely

right, this is deliberate. This is the safety net that we've created that has been expanded in order to offset the shutdown, the lockdown that's

being used to fight the virus.

We're now talking one in six American workers either having lost their job, having been furloughed or just fearful about their jobs. We don't know, and

this is what's difficult to gauge here, to what extent this will translate into real job losses when we get the unemployment report.

But the belief is that we're above 15 percent now. We could even be as high as 20 percent. The critical questions now, what does reopening of this

economy look like? How many of those jobs come back? And how quickly can that happen?

And of course, at least in the short term, what can be done to try and protect against further job losses with the lending program for small

businesses, of course, and getting money to people in the United States, too.

Forty percent of households couldn't write a $500.00 check in an emergency, and that was before this crisis. Now look at the numbers and compare.

That's terrifying.

QUEST: Right, but Julia, if you look at the range -- okay, so the U.S. has sent helicopter money through checks. It has increased the amount of

unemployment benefits both in the amount you receive and in the duration, and it has put in place, and revamped and refurbished PPP for payroll

protection.

What more is there that could or should be done?

CHATTERLEY: My fear is that it's just not been direct and quick enough, Richard. So, people are still having the issue of having to pay their

utility bills, pay their rent payments where they can. It's just the sheer level of uncertainty that I think it creates.

And getting money out to people has been so difficult. I'll use Florida as an example. Of all the hundreds of thousands of people in that state that

have claimed and filed for benefits, our estimates suggest that just 15 percent have got the money in their hands. What are they doing in the

interim?

We're seeing lines of people queueing up for food banks in states like Maryland. It's the damage to consumer confidence. In the interim, we will

dictate what the recovery looks like coming out of this Richard.

I could say more money, but I think it actually comes down to more money for the recovery, but in the interim, just speeding up that process of

getting cash to small businesses and getting cash to people, and so far that's been a huge problem.

QUEST: But, Julia, let me just agree but disagree in a sense.

CHATTERLEY: Please.

QUEST: I agree with your fundamental premise that getting more money quicker, but I don't know how you do it on a size and vastness and

complexity of this. It seems to me that they've gone as fast as they can with the somewhat archaic and antiquated infrastructure that the various

government agencies have.

[15:05:14]

CHATTERLEY: You're absolutely right. You're asking the right question at the wrong time. We have to ensure that when we go through another crisis or

another economic slowdown, the infrastructure has been changed, the computer systems have been updated.

There are ways today to get money to people instantly. We do it all the time. We use things like PayPal or Venmo and we send cash to each other

overnight. Governments should be capable of doing that. They shouldn't -- individuals should not have to wait 20 weeks to get a paper check through

the post. That is insanity.

We've been working for ten years on digitization and payments, we just didn't have it ready to face it and face the challenges of this crisis. The

next one should be different, but it doesn't help today.

QUEST: Julia, thank you. Julia Chatterley, "First Move" more tomorrow morning on the crisis. Thank you, Julia.

And now, for many the jobs will not return. If what we're hearing from large businesses is anything to go by, the rot is deep and it is fatal for

some companies.

Let me give you a couple of examples. I'll show you what I mean. Stores are on the brink of killing jobs for good. For example, Gap which of course

will stay in business, but it stopped paying rent. It says it spent $1 billion in cash since February.

Neiman Marcus is reportedly expected to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

JCPenney missed debt payments last week and is seeking advice on bankruptcy.

These are retail of course.

Macy's and JC Crew are having debt trouble, too, and the National Retail Federation is calling on Congress to help, all of this, of course, the

irony, the cruel irony is Amazon's share price is at an all-time high.

Joining me is the Mike Mayo, the Managing Director and Head of U.S. Large Cap Bank Research at Wells Fargo. Mike, this is difficult. I understand

this is all very difficult. Can you hear me, Mike?

MIKE MAYO, MANAGING DIRECTOR AND HEAD OF U.S. LARGE CAP BANK RESEARCH, WELLS FARGO (via telephone): Yes, I can, and I'm glad you're still on the

show and I wish you a speedy recovery with your own situation.

QUEST: Thank you very much. I appreciate that, Mike. I appreciate it. Now, let's just look at what -- the lines of capital from the banks and the

forms of funding that are now available to these companies.

MAYO: Well, first I'll just agree with what you're saying before. These are sobering times. We are seeing worse unemployment, worst consumer

confidence, worse GDP. The reserves taken by banks assume that loan losses will increase by three times.

So, when we talk about the lifeline to the U.S. economy, it really starts with the government, and the government looks to put $4 trillion of money

to work and that is a gargantuan effort to get the money in the right hands in the right place in the right time for something that's never been done

before.

So, the role of banks is to help facilitate the movement of that money. In 2008, banks were the problem; today, they can be part of the solution.

They had the existing relationships with most of the country and the borrowers. They are in strong condition -- thank you, banking regulators --

and they can help implement the government plan.

And banks have been stepping in where possible, so far. If you look at the growth of loans at banks, they're up one trillion dollars over the last

year, most of that is the last few months. In fact, the last month, we've had the most bank loan growth in history.

So, banks are 100 percent open for business and after causing so many problems in 2008, they finally have a chance for a redemption.

QUEST: If we look at individual -- well not a specific companies as such, but first of all, companies can draw down on their existing lines. Let's

take, for example, United Airlines. That's what it did.

Secondly, companies can borrow by issuing debt, issuing new bonds. Well, there, the Fed comes in by guaranteeing into one of its loan programs, one

of its facilities.

And now you also have the possibility to issue new shares, again as United HAS done.

Of all these different financing mechanisms, which do you say is the most useful?

MAYO: Well, look, the plumbing in the financial system was pretty broken as of a few weeks ago. So, the Fed actions that they took in mid-March were

similar to what took place during the Global Financial Crisis and they pretty quickly helped to, you know, cure the plumbing situation and that

allowed large corporations to borrow again from the capital markets.

Remember that banks are only one-third of the financial system. The other two-thirds are capital markets and other entities. So, the fed moving in

the way they did forcefully and early had an immediate benefit to the largest companies.

[15:10:27]

QUEST: Do you see a shortage of liquidity now bearing in mind -- admittedly, it's slow to get through to people, but the government PPP

money is moving, the capital markets have been unfrozen with Fed liquidity. Do you see liquidity as being an issue for any company or any corporation

to stay in business?

MAYO: Well, you can never move fast enough. When it comes to liquidity in the capital markets, capital markets are wide open. The first quarter was a

record in terms of the issuance of bonds.

The liquidity is there. The banks themselves have cash or near cash equal to $4 trillion, so that was the regulators making sure banks would have

liquidity on hand. So, the real question is getting that liquidity to the right borrowers in the right time and doing so in a way that will be most

effective. So, that's the outstanding question.

So, the largest companies certainly are there, but I would like to put something in perspective. PPP, the small business program, has gotten a lot

of attention, and before I got on, you guys had mentioned the difficulty of bureaucracies reacting.

That PPP plan, the Small Business Administration's program, they moved 500 times faster than typical in dispersing that money in one week. So, you can

either have speed or precision. And so right now, the focus is on speed.

So, you're going to have mishaps, you're going to have some people who don't get the money that need it. You're going to have others who get it

and you say, well, maybe she shouldn't have had it. But right now, we're erring on the side of getting money to people.

The liquidity is there, it's just a matter of getting it to the right hands at the right time.

QUEST: Mike, I really appreciate you, sir, for coming on. That's what we needed to hear today, to get the true perspective of what's happening.

Please, come back as we talk more on these issues. I appreciate it.

Now, Bill Gates is warning that the U.S. is not ready to reopen. He says, "We have the will, we don't have the way." There needs to be much more

testing of COVID and there needs to be investment in contact tracing and a vaccine -- we'll talk more about that.

Meanwhile, in Las Vegas, the mayor, Carolyn Goodwin, she want to open casinos and hotels to get things moving and she told our Anderson Cooper

businesses can figure it out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN HOST: You don't believe there should be any social distancing, you don't believe --

MAYOR CAROLYN GOODWIN, LAS VEGAS, NEVADA: Of course, I believe there should be. Of course.

COOPER: How do you do that in a casino?

GOODWIN: I'm rational. That's up to them to figure out.

COOPER: Hasn't it because of social distancing that the numbers have been what they are?

GOODWIN: How do you know until we have a control group? We offer to be a control group. Anybody who knows anything about statistics knows that for

instance, you have a vaccine, you need a real vaccine --

COOPER; You're offering the citizens of Las Vegas to be a control group to see if your theory on social distancing --

GOODWIN: I see the offer, it was turned down.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: Tom Vilsack is with me. He is the President and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, former U.S. Agriculture Secretary and Governor of

Iowa. Good to see you, Governor. Thank you, Mr. Secretary for being with me.

Look, in short -- do you -- we'll talk about agriculture and dairy in a second, but if you were once again at the helm of a state, would you be

looking to reopen, knowing what you do in the circumstances that we've got?

TOM VILSACK, PRESIDENT AND CEO, U.S. DAIRY EXPORT COUNCIL: Well, I think it's a very difficult circumstance. The reality is that various states are

at different levels in terms of the virus, and I think once we have a good sense of where things are relative to each state, there may be the

opportunity for a staggered reopening.

But until you have adequate testing, until you have the capacity to respond quickly if this thing reoccurs, I think you're taking a significant risk in

reopening the economy too quickly.

QUEST: And to these farmers who are now destroying food because there's nowhere else to put it, we had the CEO -- the President of Americas for

Driscoll talking about berries that would have to be picked and destroyed.

[15:15:10]

QUEST: Now, you at the Dairy Council, the cows have to be milked, and if there's nowhere for that milk to go, then one assumes it has to be

destroyed and poured away, too.

VILSACK: Not necessarily. I think we can do two things. One, we can increase the capacity of consumers to purchase product. That's one of the

reasons why we have food assistance programs, the SNAP program.

If Congress and the administration would increase the SNAP benefits, then people would be in a position to purchase more.

Secondly, I think we need the opportunity to provide a financial incentive. There's currently a disincentive for farmers and processors to deliver that

product to food banks.

In other words, they will lose more money by doing that than they would if they destroyed the product.

So, let's eliminate that disincentive. Let's create at least somewhat of a financial incentive, if you will, to break even by delivering that product

to a food bank that clearly is in need. Thirty percent to 40 percent increase in demand for food banks across the United States, 26 million

unemployed people, suddenly it's going to be terrific opportunity here for us to meet the demand that's growing, at the same time retail is not in the

position to make the kind of donations they historically make to food banks.

So, this needs to be done, I think pretty quickly.

QUEST: But what does something like dairy export do? I mean, yes, right, so you can deliver a certain amount of milk to a food bank, which I agree

is a crucially important thing.

But a Dairy Export Council, from somewhere I've read that the export of dairy product, finished product into butters, to cheeses and the like, at a

time of crisis, how difficult is that?

VILSACK: Well, it depends on the market. We're seeing a reopening in some areas, in China and South Korea, so there's market opportunity there.

We're seeing an opportunity in Southeast Asia for some of our ingredients. At the same time, the Japanese market is problematic in large part because

of the situation with the virus and the economy.

Mexico, our number one market, some challenges there. So, it just depends on the market. There's still opportunity, there's still a chance to provide

exports. Roughly 15 percent of all dairy that's been produced historically has gone into the export market.

The key for dairy farmers at this point is back to the domestic market, when you eliminate food service, which is essentially what's happened here

and you close the schools, it really shuts off a significant portion of the dairy market. So, you've got to create an opportunity for consumers to have

greater confidence to be able to purchase. That's increasing the SNAP benefits.

And you have to create innovative and creative ways to get product to food banks in a way that doesn't provide disincentives financially for either

the processor or the producer.

QUEST: And going back to the opening up of states, Georgia wants to open up hair salons and tattooists and massage parlors and will do so tomorrow

and then movie theatres.

That's against the Federal guidelines and President is against it. Can you see any justification for any state to be at that point? And the reason I

ask in such blunt terms, sir, is because it is so out of line with what anybody else is suggesting. It borders on the negligent to criminal.

VILSACK: I think you take a very significant risk in trying to be a leading indicator at a time when there's so much uncertainty about this

virus and the lack of testing capacity, the lack of a vaccine, the lack of any kind of herd immunity, I think you're taking a very significant risk.

We'll see whether or not that was a risk worth taking, I suppose, but I think it's a very difficult circumstance that's why I think so many other

states are being cautious about this and doing it in a thoughtful and stepped and staged way and I think that's one of the reasons why President

Trump has sort of changed his view about this after he talked to the experts.

The experts are saying this is not the time, nor the place to reopen. Let's wait, let's be more certain, let's provide for testing. Let's make sure

protective equipment is available.

We have a situation in my home state now with workers at production facilities, processing facilities that weren't given adequate protection

capacities and equipment, and now we have rampant illness and virus through our meat packing industry, which is going to be a further cascading impact

on our farmers. It's a tough situation, no question.

I think it's a little premature down in Georgia, but we'll see.

QUEST: Sir, thank you. I appreciate it very much giving us time. Thank you. It's kind of you in a busy day. Thank you.

Now, as we continue on QUEST MEANS BUSINESS tonight, the E.U. leaders had a virtual Summit and came up with real money.

Now, it's a trillion euros or dollars, which is actually what the E.C.B. always said was going to be needed. We'll talk about that after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:22:49]

QUEST: Welcome back. Now, the German leader, Angela Merkel, says E.U. leaders have agreed to work together on putting together a recovery fund.

They held a virtual summit where they were putting out together to discuss additional stimulus package. Once again, the corona bonds proved to be the

divisive issue.

The U.S. economy is suffering unprecedented damage. PMI's Production Index dived to a record low of 13.5 in April. Look at that chart. It tells its

story. The worst reading ever.

The E.U. Commission President, Ursula van der Leyen says members must work together for a recovery.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

URSULA VAN DER LEYEN, EUROPEAN COMMISSION PRESIDENT: While the pandemic knows certainly no borders and is blind to nationalities, some country are

certainly hit harder than others and unless we act decisively and collectively, the recovery will not be symmetric and divergence between

member states will increase.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: Anna Stewart is with me. The E.C.B. always said that it would take 1.5 trillion euros. Now, they first of all came up with 400 billion, now

they're coming up with 400 billion or 500 billion or another trillion. Why don't they get on with it and come up with a real number?

ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: Well, this is on the E.U. recovery fund, which was the big sticking point of the meeting today.

It's still a question of how many trillions are we talking about. All we know is it is not billions of euro, it will be trillions. There wasn't

actually much substance agreed on at the Summit in terms of the E.U. recovery fund, in terms of how much will really be in it.

As to how they dish it out, will it be grants or will it be loans? And according to an economist I spoke to today, that is going to be the most

divisive part going forward.

The corona bonds as it appears is more or less dead, although, perhaps not entirely buried, but the next issue is how will they get these funds to

different E.U. member states?

The only real progress, Richard, was really politically. We did have a tweet from the Italian President straight after the Summit wrapped up

saying, "Great progress. Unthinkable until a few weeks ago following the outcome of the Council that just ended." More details of course, at the

press conference shortly.

So, Italy is on board and that is crucial because Italy is one of those Southern European countries which was putting up a bit of a fight over

corona bonds.

[15:25:22]

QUEST: But Anna, hang on a second. All of our guests so far today have all talked about the significance of execution of getting the money to those

who need it. Now, in this case, that means, because obviously the E.U. to a certain extent goes through national governments.

First of all, putting together a recovery fund, then getting national governments to sign on, and then getting the national programs to

distribute the money. This is a very cumbersome method.

STEWART: This is. Now, there are some funds that have been released much sooner that we already know of, programs that were already agreed.

For instance, for furloughed workers. We had the agreement a few weeks ago. This is for the budget that starts 2021 and will take many weeks to debate.

There was some interesting discussion in the press conference, though, that there could be some sort of bridging funds to get the E.U. from this state

where it is right now in crisis mode towards the recovery fund.

What they want to see -- well, the point of the recovery fund has to be, so we don't just have an economic crisis sparked by this pandemic turn into a

sovereign debt crisis while all of these countries have to borrow more and more and more -- Richard.

STEWART: Anna, I would love to go more on this. We'll talk more tomorrow maybe, but we are out of time for the moment. We need to talk about oil and

the oil volatility continues. This time it's on the upside.

West Texas is up 23 percent to $17.00 a barrel. Now, we had negative at the beginning of the week. Demand is increasing as China reopens, but it's

still, as you can see those numbers, very, very low on WTI.

With me is Sadad Al Husseini, the founder of Husseini Energy. Former senior Vice President at Saudi Aramco. He joins me from Dhahran in Saudi Arabia.

Good to have you, sir. Look, I understand that the negative number earlier in the week because there was sort of a confluence of technical factors

along with delivery requirements.

But is this figure we're now seeing, $16.00 to $17.00 -- is this a true figure of actual weak demand?

SADAD AL HUSSEINI, FOUNDER, HUSSEINI ENERGY: Well, yes, it is. Demand is indeed very weak. We saw many estimates of 25 million barrels a day loss of

demand, so this is the reality of the markets.

Now, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has tried very hard to cut back on supplies, organize 20 countries in a meeting here in early April, and then

got the G-20 right after that to agree to further cuts.

And the totals are quite significant, almost 16.5 million barrels, and possibly higher. But the difficulty in this industry is you can't turn

around supply that fast. The financial markets are very, very quick.

But the oil markets, the physical markets just aren't as fast, and so yes, prices are low, the demand is not there, and it's going to be around for a

long time, this low oil market.

QUEST: Where do you believe the equilibrium is? Let's just scope out, say, another month and the OPEC supply cuts come in and with demand as we know

it, do these prices, current prices look realistic, either on the high or on the low side?

AL HUSSEINI: Unfortunately, they may be a little bit higher, but not sufficiently to allow the industry to make major investments and to crank

up capacity.

I think the low production from OPEC, from non-OPEC Saudi Arabia is down to 8.5 million. Russia, likewise. These will help, but it's going to take

quite a bit of time, probably three months, before we see a significant uptick in demand where we're looking at about 75 million to 80 million of

barrels of demand today versus what used to be a hundred.

So, it's going to take a while, and then at that time, we'll still have inventory to draw down which has been building up and we'll have sideline

capacity from all the major producers that will start coming back into the market.

So that, too, will continue to depress prices. I think by yearend, we might perhaps be up around $45.00 or $40.00 Brent.

[15:30:10]

QUEST: All right. Let -- finally, briefly, do you believe we could see negative prices again, as the May contract comes to a close?

AL HUSSEINI: You know, these prices that you're looking at these futures, this is paper oil. This is not physical oil. And it can be extremely

volatile. You might see dips, for sure. Not that we want them. They're very destructive. But this is the nature of the financial markets where they

speculate on the future outlook for the oil. And in the U.S., WTI has to find a home. It's not just entirely paper. At the end of the day, somebody

has to take custody of the oil. So, hopefully, we won't see any more of these dips. But it is a high-risk business.

QUEST: Thank you, sir. There's the numbers. We'll talk more. Again, thank you. After the break, the pharmaceutical company, Gilead, the share price

falls, because it's tests of latest pharmaceuticals and drugs for Coronavirus have proved to be inconclusive. This is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.

You're most welcome. Good evening to you.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: Hello. Hi, I'm Richard Quest. We have more QUEST MEANS BUSINESS in just a moment. We'll be talking to the head of the U.S. Travel Association

about what's going to happen. It could be many years before things get even close to being back to normal. And Gilead shares have fallen after the

company admits its latest tests are inconclusive. The shares rallied and then they dropped. That's the way the market goes. This is CNN, and on this

network, the news always comes first.

[15:35:06]

In the U.S., the House of Representatives expected to pass the second Emergency Relief Bill for small businesses. It also includes money for

testing facilities and for hospitals. The President said he will sign it once it reaches his desk. Former U.S. presidential candidate Elizabeth

Warren announced that her oldest brother has died from Coronavirus. Don Reed spent 20 years in the U.S. Air Force. And Warren often spoke about his

military service while campaigning. He was 86.

South Africa is set to start easing restrictions on May the 1st. The president says the government will allow some economic activity to restart.

There'll be no gatherings except for work and funerals to be allowed. And all people should wear face masks when leaving home. Borders remain close

to international travel and movement between provinces is limited to essential goods.

21 percent of people tested for COVID-19 antibodies in New York City have tested positive. The Governor Andrew Cuomo says this likely means the

number of cases across the state is far higher than what's confirmed. It would also suggests a lower mortality rate, closer to half of one percent.

The Dow started well. It had a bit of a hiccup during the day, and then improved, and then lost steam. As you take the numbers and you look at the

graph, it shows, well, we've done 100 -- up 107 points. That's about a half of where it had been at its high point of the day. There is trading and

Gilead, shares were briefly halted, and the classic stock exchange way when there is news to report, you halt the shares. Well, they're down quite

sharply after reports of clinical trials was accidentally made public that said it was inconclusive. Elizabeth Cohen is our senior medical

correspondent. She joins me from the -- from Atlanta. Well, this is what you expect. I mean, isn't it? I mean, the markets tend to want to see

certainty. And but this is what you get. It's just not been able to be proven that the Gilead drug works.

ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right. Sort of the one word that comes to mind is roller coaster. First, we're hearing

that it does work, then that it doesn't. So, the American public, all of us, they have the whole world, actually, is getting to see the sausages get

made, drug testing, shows all sorts of different things as it's happening. You have to wait for the final results. What happened here is that the

health news site was stopped -- sorry, stacked. Got a screenshot of a WHO, a World Health Organization Web site where it said that Remdesivir works --

I'm sorry, that the results from the Remdesivir study were in -- were not - - showed that Remdesivir didn't work, it showed that it was inconclusive. It showed that it wasn't clear. That's probably the best term for it. It

was inconclusive. And it wasn't clear.

So, there was that screenshot, and then the WHO took it down. Now, Gilead which makes Remdesivir are saying, Well, this is a study done in China, it

didn't have enough people in it. It's really inconclusive. But there are some trends in the data that showed that if you take it early enough, that

it actually can work. Who knows if that's actually true, people have to peer review it and see, but certainly, this is a sign that maybe this drug

isn't working out quite so well in some clinical trials. But really, we need to wait until the end to be -- to know for sure.

QUEST: Elizabeth, I saw that report from somebody in education -- in an academic institute that says a vaccine before the end of this year, or

others say, a vaccine not until the middle of next year. You have the fortunate or unfortunate, I'm not sure which task, of digesting all the

reports on this. Give me the best some guess at the moment of where we stand for vaccine.

COHEN: All right, let me tell you sort of three versions of what I've heard. The first version is, hey, we could have this in -- within months,

because we're going to use this new way that instead of using the whole virus, we use the genetic material. But then, when you talked to other

experts, they'll say, Wait a second. It's a great idea. But when we've tried it in humans, it hasn't worked. So, if it works, it's great. But it

hasn't ever worked in humans. That's version one. Version two is what we've been hearing from health officials for a long time now, 12 to 18 months

until we get a vaccine.

Version three is what some health -- some vaccine experts are saying which is 12 to 18 months is super optimistic. They think it's going to take

longer than that. I can't tell you which of these three is going to be true, but I can see say that the one that promises of results within months

is getting a fair amount of criticism that, you know, it's never worked before, it would be great if it worked now, but don't get your hopes up.

[15:40:12]

QUEST: Thank you, Elizabeth Cohen, joining us. Thank you. After the break - -

COHEN: Thanks.

QUEST: -- we're talking travel, and the situation with the travel industry which is just simply dire and desperate. And there's no realistic

possibility of it getting better much soon, or anytime soon. So, what do you do? In a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: As you know, travel in the hospitality industry is always very important along this program, so we want to keep you up to date. Emirates

Airlines has announced it is to restart flights. It'll be a very limited form of service, as we do from Dubai to major cities in Europe, Africa and

Asia. There will be conditions, they are nonrefundable tickets, not sure why they should be nonrefundable, since it's the passenger taking the risk

as well, but there you are. Minimal carryon baggage and thermal screening at the airport. IATA is warning it's going to be a very slow recovery for

the travel with passenger confidence sharply down -- excuse me. Compounding issues, heightened safety concerns, of course, plus tight personal

finances.

40 percent of people say they'll wait six months or more before flying again. Roger Dow is with me, the President and CEO of the U.S. Travel

Association. He joins me from Florida. Roger, always good to have you, sir. You and I have talked these issues many times. And well, we're at the point

of reality now that even as a slow open begins, even in states like Florida or Arizona, people don't want to travel. So, what do you now need from

central and state government?

ROGER DOW, PRESIDENT & CEO, U.S. TRAVEL ASSOCIATION: The most important thing, Richard, is that we have a testing -- we need lots of testing for

employees and for people that we have an assurance that the industry is doing something industry wide, that we have a common protocol so people can

trust. And the government is speaking out that all these things are happening. All three, the industry, testing, medical and industry talk

together, the attempt to travel goes way up, compared to just the industry saying or just the government alone.

[15:45:00]

QUEST: Roger, would you agree that now is not the time to be reopening as the Mayor of Las Vegas, which is one of the largest convention cities in

the world, but the mayor wants it to be reopened now in all its extremities. Would you agree it's not the time?

DOW: I think we've got to open the industry slowly, carefully and smartly. When I look at Las Vegas, it's the greatest travel destination in the

world, but it's also one of the tightest in the world. So, I would want to see a few things open more slowly, get some history and background that all

is going well and then keep opening more I wouldn't open Las Vegas immediately all at once. I think that could be challenging.

QUEST: This could go for months, if not a couple of years. Delta says it'll be at least three to five years before their numbers get back to 2019

levels. And yet, Michael O'Leary at Ryanair believes by summer '19, assuming there's some sort of vaccine, things will be heading back to --

sorry, the summer '21, I beg your pardon, things will be back to levels of 2019. What's your economists telling you? What's your best guess to get

back to normality?

DOW: We're looking at mid next year. We agree a little bit with the former. It all depends, the vaccine comes out tomorrow, which it won't. I just

heard your last segment, then everything's going to come back. That's a big thing. I think you're going to see it come back regionally and locally,

domestic, international, another six months, and slowly come back. The more trust consumers have. I'm watching Germany very carefully and Sweden very

carefully to see what's going on there as they're opening up.

QUEST: And the airline industry has received large amounts of money, a good giant amount of money. And some of the hotels did and that's controversial.

Do you think -- I mean, from the small BNBs, the inns, the small little amusement parks and amusement arcades, traveler attractions, do you think

many simply won't be able to come back?

DOW: I think there's going to be a portion that will not come back, hopefully with what the governor has been doing. Most are going to be able

to. We're trying to get the money out faster and more quickly. These people can't hang on for months. It's a matter of weeks for them. So, we're

hopeful they'll come back and come back soon. But the longer it goes, the more you're going to see it will not be able to come back.

QUEST: And in terms of a global scale, the UNWTO has put together some sort of plan and the WTTC has got its own plans in place. But there has been no

overarching coordinated effort yet, between governments or agencies. Do you think that will be helpful, or just another bureaucratic mess that doesn't

need -- that we don't need at a time like this?

DOW: Richard, I think it will be helpful at the right time. Right now, I'm in touch with the WTTC every single week and I listen into all the

different countries. But right now, this is going to be at domestic recovery. The United States, we're going to be focusing very much on people

that are going to travel within the United States. And it's going to come later. So, we got plenty of time for that to come together. I think

everyone has to do their own share. We're in this together and every government, every travel company has to do their thing together. The more

we do together. But right now, I think to worry about whether we're going to go to Italy and Italy is going to come here, I'm not too worried about

that for next month.

QUEST: Roger, you travel more than me, I suspect. Roger, what will it take for you to get on an aluminium tube and sit in it for eight hours?

DOW: I think it'd be a assurance that the virus has been come down and has tailed off to a very minimal level, that I know that there's protocols in

place that for all the cleanliness possible from the person that might have been there before me. And that makes sure that I got upgraded to first

class and had some great service and I'm on board, I'm going.

QUEST: You're not going to get any of our viewers to ever believe that you ever fly anywhere but behind -- but in front of the curtain, Roger.

DOW: You are so wrong, Richard, I'm always in the middle seat in the back. And I just -- I love every minute of it.

QUEST: And please God, you'll take a picture. Because when you take a picture of you in the middle seat, I'll probably be sitting next to you.

And the good part is it'll mean that aviation is open and doing business again, and we're able to travel. Roger, it is good to talk to you sir.

Thank you very much indeed.

DOW: Always a pleasure, Richard, always a pleasure. Thank you.

QUEST: Thank you. After the break, we'll talk to the flower company in Columbia that has plenty of flowers and nowhere to send them.

[15:50:07]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: Finally tonight, to the "VOICE OF THE CRISIS," and we're talking about flowers. And in honor of our next guest, we've actually brought some

flowers in over some rather delightful roses. I'm not sure where they came from. But our next guest "VOICE OF THE CRISIS" comes from Colombia, from

Bogota. It is Maria Ocampo of Natural Flowers, Colombia. This is the time when you are trading flowers galore. But those flowers are still being

grown but nobody seems to want to transport them or take them. So, Maria "VOICE OF THE CRISIS," how are you managing? What are you doing?

MARIA OCAMPO, OWNER, NATURAL FLOWERS, COLOMBIA: Hello, Richard. Well, at the moment, we -- during April, the last two weeks of April, we're supposed

to be sending flowers for Mother's Day. And we are actually sending flowers not as we expected. Because, of course, demand are getting down. And we

still have (INAUDIBLE) we are selling to Japan and United States with some logistic issues because they're not enough space from Columbia to USA. But

we still working on that, we still trying to send most of the flowers that we can.

QUEST: So, they're on the planes because, obviously, flowers often go in the belly of the plane as air cargo. There's just on the flight. There are

still cargo flights. What happens to the flowers if you don't sell them or you aren't able to move them? Do they just get thrown away?

OCAMPO: Yes, yes. The flowers, we'll need to throw them away if we don't sell. They can be in the cooler for some weeks, but at the end, we will

have to throw it away if we don't sell them.

QUEST: You have nine people working for you, 100 livelihoods on the back of this. Will you be able to keep going whilst we wait for better days and

more flowers? Are you going to be able to keep going?

[15:55:05]

OCAMPO: I think that we're going to keep going. We are working hard to do it. We will -- we want to protect the people who work with us. And, of

course, the farm who grow for us. That's the idea that I am concerned about the demand, of course, and often for the cash flow to invest for future

plans and programs for next holidays or next seasons. But the idea is to keep going and work hard to do that.

QUEST: What's your favorite flower, Maria? If I had a bunch of them to give you, what would be your favorite flower?

OCAMPO: Well, my favorite, my favorite is orchids but our main product to sell is carnations, and I also like carnations very much.

QUEST: Orchids and carnations. Well, I've only got roses behind me. But imagine I'm giving you an orchid and a bunch of carnations, which we

hopefully we'll be able to exchange in better times. Thank you so much for telling us the story of your -- of you and your flowers first this evening,

thank you. "VOICE OF THE CRISIS." Don't forget you can always get hold of me, Richard.quest@cnn.com these are difficult times. And in difficult

times, I believe I come to you and talk to you every night. You should be able to get hold of me and talk back to me. Richard. quest@cnn.com.

The markets, let's have a look at how they're finishing. Looks like it's going to be a good day. We have an ebullient day overall, they seem to be

up overall. A gain of some 55 points. They've given up the most of the gains of the day, but it is still positive. And that's the way things are

looking tonight. Thank you for taking time out of your day to join us and talk business and economics, as always because I'm Richard Quest and that's

QUEST MEANS BUSINESS for tonight. Whatever you're up to in the hours ahead, I do long for the days when they'll be another person to be able to go. I

hope it's profitable. Keep safe. I'll see you tomorrow.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: And welcome to THE LEAD, I'm Jake Tapper. At this hour, the death toll from Coronavirus stands at more than 47,000 in the

United States nearing that horrific 50,000 mark.

END