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Quest Means Business

Netflix Shares Tank 20 Percent On Weak Subscriber Outlook; Bitcoin's Value Plunges As Tech Stocks Suffer; U.S. Secretary Of State And Russian Foreign Minister Hold Talks In Geneva; Some Colleges And Universities Return To Remote Learning; Brown Professor: Decision To Return To Remote Learning A Mistake; Netflix Drags NASDAQ Deeper Into Correction. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired January 21, 2022 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:17]

ALISON KOSIK, CNN BUSINESS HOST: The NASDAQ sinks deeper to finish off a rough week for stocks. You can see it's not just tech, it's the wider

market, we are lower across the board. Those are the markets and these are the main events.

The great market rotation. Investors are dumping shares of pandemic darlings like Netflix and Zoom.

Putin isn't bluffing. Ian Bremmer joins me live to discuss his top risks of 2022.

And weighing the true cost of remote learning. A leading economist argues, it's time to reconsider sending kids home from school.

Live from New York, it's Friday, January 21st. I'm Alison Kosik in for Richard Quest, and this is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.

Tonight, the pandemic boom may be over for some of the companies that have enjoyed it the most, Netflix is the latest tech stock to see its price

plummet.

Shares are down more than 20 percent after it warned about weak subscriber growth and fierce competition. It is raising prices in two of its biggest

markets, the U.S. and Canada.

Brian Stelter is live with us now from New York. So Brian, what do you think? Did the streaming wars just hit a wall? I mean, are people realizing

that they don't need as many streaming subscriptions especially amid the price pressures that we're seeing?

BRIAN STELTER, CNN CHIEF MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: I would say this is more of a dramatic overreaction by investors, as we see Netflix being dragged down,

but also Disney and other media stocks.

This massive selloff of streaming stocks feels to me like an overreaction to what is an understandable disappointing Netflix earnings report. But I

think we have to keep the big picture in mind and that is maybe what's being missed today as Netflix shares are off 23 to 25 percent.

The big picture is that streaming is the present and the future. The big picture is that more and more subscribers are signing up every day, and

there are new markets Netflix is tapping into.

Is the growth slowing? Yes. Does the company have some concerns about the future quarters? Yes. And is competition coming into Netflix? Yes.

But what else did Netflix say? They said they're going harder into gaming. They said they're focusing on building new building better products and

they are focused on their programming pipeline.

So I suspect Alison, people might wake up next week, maybe a little hungover after all this selling today and they might look at these stocks a

little bit differently.

The bottom line is that even though Netflix is feeling a lot of bumps right now, there is a lot of turbulence in the air so to speak. This is still a

business that is well ahead of its rivals, and well-positioned for the future.

KOSIK: And what about those rivals? The growth trajectory for this area?

STELTER: Right, I mean, clearly the easy money -- clearly the easy fruit has been picked, and we can see that in the U.S. and other markets. Netflix

is having a harder time convincing new people to sign up.

But we know that Netflix's story is a global story. Look at the success of "Squid Game" last year. There will be a version of that this year as well.

Some shows made in some market where you're not expecting it to become a global sensation, it is probably going to happen again and again and again.

So that's where the opportunity lies for Netflix.

But maybe what we're seeing in the last 24 hours is a rebalancing, a reassessment of what is realistic for Netflix in this market in the next

couple of years.

Everybody gunning for Netflix, including our parent company, WarnerMedia, Discovery, Disney, Viacom -- all the rest. Everybody gunning for Netflix.

It is obviously putting a lot of pressure on the company on its revenues right now.

KOSIK: And some may say, if you have a strong stomach, a buying opportunity if you're an investor.

Brian Stelter, thanks so much.

Netflix is just the latest victim of a market rotation. On Thursday, Peloton said it is considering production cuts and possible layoffs because

of waning demand for its bikes and treadmills. Its shares plummeted by nearly a quarter.

Today, it is recovering some of its losses. Peloton is down around 80 percent from last year. Other stay-at-home stocks that did very well in

2020 like Zoom and Docusign, they are also struggling.

All have contributed to the tech heavy NASDAQ falling into correction.

Meera Pandit is a Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan, and she joins us live.

Great to have you with us today.

MEERA PANDIT, GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST, JPMORGAN: Thanks for having me.

KOSIK: So do you think that this selloff I'm talking about in tech where it's really just taking it on the chin, is it the latest sign that

investors have moved on from the so-called pandemic trade? Or do you think they'll come back to these stocks?

[15:05:04]

PANDIT: Certainly, we're moving on from this pandemic environment to hopefully what is more of an endemic environment, and investors are sort of

recalibrating how they look at the markets, because now, we are going from an environment in which monetary policy and fiscal policy was very easy to

one where both are much less accommodated, and that has been accompanied by a higher rise in rates and a pretty rapid rise in rates over the last

couple of weeks, which tends to hurt some of those tech heavy growth oriented stocks the most. So that's what we're seeing right now in the

markets.

KOSIK: What does it mean for the rest of the tech world, especially companies that are less tied to the pandemic?

PANDIT: Ultimately, we need to make sure that we look for tech companies that are producing earnings, and a few missed earnings reports doesn't

necessarily mean that fundamentals are completely damaged in the sector.

What it means is, we just need to look for companies that have strong business models that can produce growth in the long run, because

ultimately, many of these companies are at the forefront of a lot of the really important secular trends for growth that we're seeing in the long

run.

And while they are reacting to higher rates in the future and in the present, ultimately, we're also heading to an environment of slower

economic growth in the second half of the year in the U.S., which means that investors are going to be clamoring for opportunities for growth in

their portfolios. So we want to look for ones that continue to have durable profitability, and again, are taking advantage of some of those long-term

growth themes.

KOSIK: And so more broadly, do you think that that the market right now is oversold or not sold enough? I mean, watching the trade yesterday, we saw

the intraday trading, there was a strong bounce and it hung on and volumes were strong, but then it cratered in the end into the close.

PANDIT: Ultimately, I think what the market is reacting to is such a rapid rise in rates. I mean, what we were expecting throughout the course of last

year was to see higher and higher rates, and yet, we've gotten a lot of that in just the first few weeks of the year, and those dynamic changes can

be a real shock to the stock market.

But I think what we should expect going forward is that we are likely to see a bit more volatility this year, certainly than we did last year. Last

year, we saw about a five percent pullback in the overall market, whereas if we look at the average over the last 40 years, a pullback on average

each and every year is closer to 14 percent.

And without the Fed and without fiscal policy as a backstop, we could be looking at more prolonged incidences of volatility, which is why in a

portfolio, we can't just expect that every piece of the equity market is going to go up like last year, we have to be much more selective,

especially around earnings and looking for quality, and really looking for the companies that can defend their margins, and do well in this

environment.

So, it is certainly an environment, where we are going to see a lot more differentiation across the companies that can succeed versus the companies

that perhaps got in over their skis.

KOSIK: Meera, very quickly curious how many rate cuts you're expecting and how -- by how much? How many basis points?

PANDIT: We do see that we could potentially see four rate hikes this year with the first one starting in March. The only caveat I would offer to that

view is the fact that right now we're seeing high inflation, but still strong growth in consumer demand.

Whereas as we head into the later parts of the year, and see some of those elements come off a boil, it could cause the Fed to slow down in the pace

of some of that tightening.

So while there are very aggressive outlooks for how hawkish the Fed might be this year, we do have to make sure that we're ingesting the right data

at the right time as this environment is so dynamic and things are likely to change by the middle of the year.

KOSIK: Okay, Meera Pandit with JPMorgan, thanks so much for your expertise.

PANDIT: Thank you for having me.

KOSIK: And as tech stocks plunged, so too is the value of Bitcoin. It has recently come down to its lowest level since August. That's the last time

it crossed below the threshold of $40,000.00.

One Bitcoin was worth almost $69,000.00 in November when it was trading at a record high, it is down about 15 percent this year. Paul La Monica joins

us now.

Paul, what is behind this latest plunge in crypto, specifically Bitcoin?

PAUL LA MONICA, CNN BUSINESS REPORTER: Yes, I think that Alison, today, you have concerns about Russia looking to crack down on the Bitcoin mining

industry that comes on the heels of concerns about Kazakhstan having more turmoil politically because Kazakhstan is actually the world's second

largest market for Bitcoin mining behind the United States.

China has already taken steps to really put the kibosh on a lot of mining activity, which has hurt crypto mining there. So right now, I think a lot

of traders are just nervous about the global regulatory environment for Bitcoin and other big cryptos like Ethereum.

[15:10:07]

KOSIK: And looking at the stock market, moving on to the stock market and looking at the stock market moving on to the stock market, we're getting

some kind of grim predictions here. There is a report out from one of the most influential fund managers saying that this is a stock market -- that's

a super bubble ready to burst.

LA MONICA: Yes, Jeremy Grantham, who has been bearish in the past and rightfully so, he has been doing this for more than 40 years. He was

bearish in 2000 and in 2008, and he thinks that there could be a market bubble, a super bubble that's going to burst like 1987 and like 2000, and

maybe that is finally starting to happen with this unwinding of tech stocks and small U.S. stocks in particular.

To be fair, though Grantham made a similar call, Alison, in January of last year that didn't pan out because the market wound up, obviously having a

great year, third year in a row of, you know, market gains and ending 2021 near record highs.

The difference now is that Grantham is looking a little bit more prescient because he is making this call at a time where stocks are plunging.

KOSIK: And they are pledging. Dow down over 400 points as we're less than an hour to go until the closing bell. Paul La Monica, thanks so much.

Next on QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, the U.S. issues a stern warning to Russia as troops mass at the Ukraine border. We will have the latest on their high

stakes talks in Geneva. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KOSIK: The top diplomats from the US and Russia have wrapped up their high stakes meeting today in Geneva. The U.S. wants Russia to de-escalate its

military buildup near the Ukrainian border. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of dire consequences if the Russians do invade.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: We've been clear if any Russian military forces move across Ukraine's border, that's a renewed invasion. It

will be met with swift, severe, and a united response from the United States and our partners and allies.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KOSIK: Blinken acknowledge that the U.S. didn't expect any major breakthroughs at the meeting, but he says at least each side now has a

clearer picture of the other's concerns.

More now from CNN senior international correspondent, Frederik Pleitgen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): With Russian forces continuing their buildup near Ukraine's border and the

U.S. warning that Moscow could quickly send significantly more forces to the area, there was a sense of urgency to the meeting between U.S.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

[15:15:16]

(voice over): The Secretary of State saying the U.S. made clear a further invasion of Ukraine would have severe consequences.

BLINKEN: This was not a negotiation, but a candid exchange of concerns and ideas. I made clear to Minister Lavrov that there are certain issues and

fundamental principles that the United States and our partners and allies are committed to defend. That includes those that would impede the

sovereign right of Ukrainian people to write their own future. There is no trade space there. None.

PLEITGEN (voice over): The meeting came just after new satellite images seem to show the Russian troop buildup progressing, with forces now

stationed less than 10 miles from the Ukrainian border well within striking distance.

Both Russia and the U.S. say Washington will provide written answers to Moscow next week replying to Moscow's security demands, including that

Ukraine never become a member of NATO. Blinken has recently called that demand a quote, "absolute nonstarter."

While Russia claims it has never threatened Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies say the danger of an escalation is real. Russia's Foreign Minister

with an angry response when I asked him --

PLEITGEN (on camera): How big do you think right now the threat of war is in Europe through some sort of miscalculation with obviously such a large

force gathering around Ukraine?

SERGEY LAVROV, RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): I think that the State Department also needs to analyze how fair CNN is in presenting

its information and the accuracy of the facts that it represents.

Antony Blinken repeated his position on the right to choose alliances. I asked how America is going to fulfill its obligation, which was approved at

the highest level in the framework of the OSCE.

Along with the right to choose alliances, the obligation does not strengthen anyone's security at the expense of infringing on the security

of others. He promised to explain how the United States treats the fulfillment of this obligation.

As I've told you, this is not the end of our dialogue.

PLEITGEN (voice over): While both the U.S. and Russia say there will be further talks, Russia's military buildup goes on. Moscow is saying it has

now forward deployed sophisticated S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Belarus, Moscow says for upcoming military drills.

(on camera): Both sides also raised the prospect of a possible top level meeting between President Joe Biden and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in

the near future. The U.S. saying such a meeting could happen if it were both necessary and productive.

Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Geneva Switzerland.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOSIK: Growing tension with Russia is of this year's biggest political -- geopolitical concerns according to Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy firm.

It's also warning about China's strict zero COVID policy, the unchecked power of big tech, the significance of the U.S. midterms, and the effect of

China's domestic policies on its growth and stability.

Ian Bremmer is the President of Eurasia Group, and he joins us now.

Great to have you with us, and I want to start with Russia and get your opinion about where things stand right now. Now that Lavrov met with

Blinken, where are we with this crisis at the moment? Are we closer to an incursion? Or did they move -- did we did they move this further away?

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP: Believe it or not, both things are happening. We are closer to an incursion in the sense that the Russians are

continuing to escalate. They're building up their military capabilities. They've also engaged in direct cyberattacks against the Ukrainians over the

course of the last week, and the Americans and the NATO Allies haven't had much of a response to that.

On the other hand, the United States hasn't had a very good sense of what it is that Putin really wants to negotiate over. The public demands that

were being made were all over the map and nonstarters, and that is why the first conversations are not negotiations, they are really an expression of

interests, of priorities, of understanding where a negotiation could potentially go.

And if we have another meeting between the two Presidents, it will be much more substantive than the one we had just a few weeks ago.

KOSIK: If you were going to guess invasion or no invasion, where would you put it?

BREMMER: No, I would say that I don't think there's going to be an invasion in the sense that I don't think we're going to have Russian tanks

going to the Dnieper River and thousands of Ukrainians die, because that would bring -- the one thing that would bring NATO closer together.

But that doesn't mean -- the huge costs and consequences for Russia -- but that doesn't mean that we're going to have diplomacy succeed. The problem

the Americans have right now, there are a lot of things the Russians can do, like permanent troops being based in Belarus and nukes there. Like, you

know, putting troops in Venezuela or Cuba and having exercises in the western hemisphere or even sending tanks into the occupied Donbas in

Ukraine ostensibly to defend ethnic Russian citizens living there.

[15:20:10]

They are well short of an invasion, but that the United States would consider very deeply escalatory, and it would be hard for us to coordinate

with NATO allies. That's where I think we are, unfortunately, most likely headed.

And when President Biden in the press conference this week, said he thought the Russians were going to go in on balance, but didn't think they'd fully

invade. That's actually what he meant.

KOSIK: Okay, let's move on to Eurasia Group's top risks for 2022. I want to hear, the biggest political risks are starting with your number one.

BREMMER: Number one is really interesting, and in many ways surprising, because China, of course, in 2020, was the single large government that did

the most effective job in responding to COVID. They were able to track, to trace, to lock down into quarantine. They are the only economy of scale in

the world that actually grew in 2020. They got their supply chain back up and running fast.

This year, they're going to have the least effective of government responses to COVID because pandemic has changed. It's much less lethal,

it's much more transmissible, you need to not focus on cases and instead focus on dealing with hospitalizations, deaths, and dealing with the virus.

And the Chinese, none of them have gotten COVID, so they are much more vulnerable. There's no natural immunity that their vaccines don't work very

well in stopping spread and they are unwilling to pivot away from their zero COVID policy.

So you're going to see millions and millions of people locked down, getting angrier about it, and you're also going to see big stoppages of their

economy, the factory still for a lot of the world. So that that is by far the single largest risk globally out there.

KOSIK: Number two is technology-polar world. Why is this so high on your list?

BREMMER: Because so many people are angry at technology companies in terms of disinformation and civil society and cyberattacks and whether your data

is secure. And yet, in the digital world, we call it a technology-polar world, because governments don't really have any influence.

And despite all of the efforts for governments to catch up and effectively regulate in Europe and the United States, and even in China, which is an

authoritarian state for the tech companies, still have an enormous amount of independence, because the Chinese government doesn't really know what

they're doing.

The companies are going to get more powerful faster than the government regulations are going to catch up. And that gap is going to cause bigger

challenges for the global economy and for civil society and politics.

KOSIK: And the third on your list is the U.S. midterms, what concerns you there?

BREMMER: The fact that it is kind of fundamental to a democracy that you have to have free and fair elections that are seen as legitimate by both

the winners and the losers.

In the last few months, Germany, Japan, Canada, they have all had elections like that. In the next few months, France, South Korea, same thing. You

can't say that about the United States anymore. And in that regard, the upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. will probably be the most impactful

that we've had in our country's history.

KOSIK: What's one more standout?

BREMMER: One more standout is probably Russia, which we talked about, but since we talked about it, I would say climate and the fact that all of the

progress we've seen on climate moving towards net zero, moving towards less methane emissions, is going to meet up against the fact that the

infrastructure for that energy isn't there.

And what that means is higher energy prices in the near term, and also a little bit of backsliding for transition fuels like natural gas as

governments are trying to make the politics meet the economics.

KOSIK: Okay, Ian Bremmer great getting your perspective today. Thanks for your time on the show.

BREMMER: Absolutely.

KOSIK: China's zero COVID strategy will face its most daunting test when the Beijing Winter Olympics begins in just two weeks.

David Culver takes a look at the extraordinary safety measures.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID CULVER, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Traveling into Beijing may prove to be a tougher race than an Olympic competition. These

Winter Games taking place in a capital city that increasingly feels like a fortress, China determined to keep out any new cases of COVID-19 starting

at the airport.

(on camera): This is the terminal that's going to be used by athletes, some of the Olympic personnel and media arriving into Beijing. They've got

a wall up that keeps the general population away from everyone who is part of the Olympic arrivals.

(voice over): Those coming in, required to download this official app to monitor their health inputting their information starting 14 days before

arriving in Beijing.

While health surveillance and strict contact tracing is part of life for everyone living in China, it is making visitors uneasy. Cybersecurity

researchers warn the app has serious encryption flaws potentially compromising personal health data, China dismisses concerns, but Team

U.S.A. and athletes from other countries are being advised to bring disposable burner phones instead of their personal ones.

[15:25:13]

(voice over): From the airport, athletes and personnel will be taken into what organizers call the closed loop system, not one giant bubble so much

as multiple bubbles connected by dedicated shuttles.

Within the capital city, there are several hotels and venues, plus the Olympic Village that are only for credentialed participants.

(on camera): The dedicated transport buses will be bringing the athletes, the personnel, the media, through these gates, but for those of us who are

residents outside, this is as close as we can get.

(voice over): Then there are the mountain venues on the outskirts of Beijing connected by a high speed train and highways, all of them newly

built for the Winter Games.

So as to maintain the separation, even the rail cars are divided, and the closed loop buses given specially marked lanes.

(on camera): It is so strict that officials have told residents if they see one of the vehicles that's part of the Olympic convoys get into a

crash, to stay away. They've actually got a specialized unit of medics to respond to those incidents.

It's all to keep the virus from potentially spreading.

(voice over): It also helps keep visiting journalists from leaving the capital city to other regions like Xinjiang or Tibet to explore

controversial topics.

With the world's attention, the Olympics allows China to showcase its perceived superiority in containing the virus, especially compared with

countries like the U.S., but this will in many ways also be a tale of two cities, one curated for the Olympic arrivals and pre-selected groups of

spectators, another that is the real Beijing.

Though some local Beijing residents are now in a bubble of their own, communities locked down after recent cases surfaced in the city outside the

Olympic boundaries, a mounting challenge for a country that's trying to keep COVID out and yet still stage a global sporting spectacle to wow the

world.

(on camera): So all of this is a real challenge for Chinese officials to portray this as an open welcoming host city when you're surrounded by

barriers, and we're seeing more and more broadcasters and personnel cancelling plans to come here, in part because the realization is starting

to hit, China's zero COVID restrictions are like nothing else in the world.

And if you can track the virus or government health officials say you've been close to a confirmed case, there is no challenge in them. They can and

most likely will put you in isolation.

David Culver, CNN, Beijing.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOSIK: Ahead, the omicron variant is forcing many U.S. colleges and universities back online, but some educators say it's time for a different

approach. I'll speak with one of them coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:30:00]

KOSIK: The head of the IMF warns that the global economy this year is facing an obstacle course of challenges. Kristalina Georgieva listed some

of them while speaking at a virtual World Economic Forum. She cited geopolitical tensions, the pandemic, inflation, rising U.S. interest rates

and China's slowing economy. She questioned the effectiveness of Beijing's zero COVID policy, and said that global growth will be far from smooth.

The World Bank's president says patchy growth will mostly elude developing economies. David Malpass, told our Julia Chatterley that capital is flowing

disproportionately to the rich.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID MALPASS, PRESIDENT, WORLD BANK GROUP: The problem is, there's not enough growth total in the world for everybody, that's clear. And then so

the goal of development is to -- is to have people at the bottom do better and better each year. And unfortunately, the capital allocation of the

world is going mostly to the advanced economies, and even to the upper in - - incomes of those advanced economies. It's a very narrow progress being made in the world.

JULIA CHATTERLEY CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: You point out something vitally important, and you and I have discussed it before. But I think the problems

more acute today than ever, and it's the fiscal response, the monetary response of governments too that is exacerbating the situation. And if we

look at the highest spending to support economies in richer nations, they're sucking up a lot of the investment.

They're spending, but they're borrowing money out there. And it's effectively crowding out the borrowing, the essential borrowing that poor

nations need to do, and it's making their ability to raise money, more costly as well.

MALPASS: That's -- I guess that's right. And that's a -- that's a grave concern. So, if you think about who's done well in this advancement in the

recovery, it's people who issue bonds, and especially big bond issuer -- issuers, that means the U.S. government that means the European

governments, and also the big corporations. They issued that buy back stock. And so, you've got this system where Wall Street and financial

centers around the world are issuing bonds on behalf of the rich of the corporate sector of governments, in order to put more money into those

sectors.

And that really doesn't get us to the end result that we want, which is less poverty, more shared prosperity in the world and inflation and higher

interest rates is hurting that mix or making it worse this year.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOSIK: Ireland says it will scrap most of its COVID restrictions tomorrow, after the Prime Minister says the country weathered and Omicron storm and

that key indicators are moving in the right direction. It comes a day after France announced that it will begin lifting restrictions next month,

including its outdoor mask mandate and work-from-home requirement. Officials they're still haven't decided if they will relax measures in

schools

On Thursday, nearly 19,000 classes had to close because students and staff were out sick. The Omicron variant has forced many colleges and

universities around the world back into remote learning. My next guest says that's a mistake. Emily Oster is an economics professor at Brown

University. She wrote this month in The Atlantic that the decision to return to online learning reflects an outdated level of caution and

outmoded level of caution.

And it represents a failure of universities to protect their students' interests. And Professor Oster joins me now live from Providence, Rhode

Island. Welcome to the show.

EMILY OSTER, ECONOMICS PROFESSOR, BROWN UNIVERSITY: Thanks for having me.

KOSIK: So you have been super outspoken about the need to keep schools open. What do you see as the biggest consequences for shifting to online

education for students?

OSTER: So, I think it varies a little bit with K-12 versus universities but just sort of focus on the universities here. I think the issue is for

students in moving to online learning are cost of their mental health or cost to their learning, you know, college students are (INAUDIBLE)

kindergarteners are learning on Zoom but it is not as good as learning -- as learning in person.

[15:40:10]

And that on top of the fact that the -- there is loneliness, there's isolation among these students. I mean, for all of those reasons, there was

a really should be a strong push towards an in-person experience in college.

KOSIK: But now, with Omicron with so many teachers getting sick, with so many students getting sick. The online education aspect of it is actually

helpful if your child is sick. So instead of quarantining at home for a week or more and not learning anything, online is better than nothing,

right?

OSTER: So, I think we need to distinguish between should be providing support for people who are holding quarantine in terms of your distance

learning the same way we would typically have done. So, before COVID, I think absolutely, yes. Distinct from should we close schools. And I think

even more than the question of should we close schools, we may need -- there may be some periods of brief interruptions because of logistical

things.

Some of what I think so many of us have become concerned about the last few weeks is, for example, Flint, Michigan, saying that schools are going to be

virtual learning indefinitely. That is not where we need to be. Now, given the availability of vaccines and given how costly we know it is for kids to

be ours.

KOSIK: I want to focus on the mental and emotional toll, you know, obviously, the pandemic has put upon kids of all ages, even once in high

school and in college. And then we sort of add on the remote education aspect of it, how does that sort of make it worse?

OSTER: We hear quite a lot about both abroad mental health impacts. And the idea that somehow schools, then closures of schools have contributed to

this. I think there are still uncertainties about exactly how large those changes are, you know, it's easier to measure test scores, and to see the

impacts of remote learning on test scores, which are quite bad. But to measure sort of impacts on mental health, if he is more challenging,

certainly, I will say you talk to educators, they're hearing a lot from students about an experiencing a lot of what they see as the cost from the

kind of disruptive school year last year.

KOSIK: You've certainly earned your share of criticism with one critic saying that you missed the mark on this latest Atlantic article taking

issue with your suggestion that institutions could simply mandate vaccinations. This critic saying that there are wider socio political

pressures. What do you say to that?

OSTER: So, first of all, most -- many of the universities that have decided to go remote in these first weeks have already mandated vaccinations and

boosters. So we're actually seeing much more in the way of closures among places that are pushing far in the direction of mandated whereas we're not

seeing closure so much in the cases of not mandated vaccines. So, it's a little bit tricky there.

But I also think the availability of vaccines in the wider community means that the cost of universities, the externalities of universities being open

are -- we should see them differently because everyone has access to vaccines, even if they choose not to take them.

KOSIK: There was also an article in Vox that I saw written by Anna North that examines how you've become kind of this symbol of the movement to

reopen schools. And she says you're an Ivy League economist with no authority whatsoever over public policy. What's your reaction to your

influential but polarizing role?

OSTER: You know, I think that I -- early on, even as early as the fall of 2020, was making the case that schools could be open safely. I think that

case now is one you see very widely made by a variety of policymakers, epidemiologist, educators, and so on. I mean, I think that's a sort of

pretty centrist view. At this point I think I got some criticism for saying that early on, even though I think expos actually that turned out to be a

much more mainstream view.

At the time, you know, I was the person collecting the best data on these questions. And so, I think that I had some authority to talk about it. But

of course, when you take stands like that, sometimes people disagree with them. And that's part of what comes with trying to say the things that you

think are supported by the data and are going to serve children.

KOSIK: Well, plenty of people are certainly talking about you both criticizing and agreeing with you. So just want to put that out there.

There is a lot of agreement out there as well. Emily Oster, professor of economics at Brown University. Thanks so much.

OSTER: Thank you.

KOSIK: I want to take a quick check of the markets on this Friday. We've got 20 minutes before the closing bell and it's another rough session. The

Dow down over 400 points. This as the NASDAQ continues moving lower as well. It is in a correction down more than 10 percent. Even the S&P 500

down -- up more than one percent right now. And as we see the NASDAQ down another two percent. We talked about Peloton and Netflix getting hit hard

some of those pandemic stocks as well.

And that mean --that's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. Follow me on Instagram and Twitter @AlisonKosik. I'll be back at the top of the hour as we make a dash

with the closing bell.

[15:40:10]

Up next, Inside Africa.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:58:27]

KOSIK: Hello. I'm Alison Kosik. It's the dash to the closing bell and we're just two minutes away. It's a story of deep red today for the markets. As

you can see, the Dow had bounced off its session lows this hour, but it is still down about 370 points. It's even worse for the tech heavy NASDAQ

which is falling further into correction. Netflix is helping drag it lower. It's off more than 20 percent because of a weak subscriptions outlook.

World Bank President David Malpass hold our Julia Chatterley that global growth is expected to slow down this year and it will disproportionately

benefit the rich.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MALPASS: The problem is, there's not enough growth total in the world for everybody. That's clear. And then so the goal of development is to -- is to

have people at the bottom do better and better each year. And unfortunately, the capital allocation of the world is going mostly to the

advanced economies and even to the upper in -- incomes of those advanced economies. It's a very narrow progress being made in the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KOSIK: Let's have one last look at the Dow before we go. Very few winners today with just a handful of stocks inching out again here. IBM is one of

them, after it announced that will sell off its healthcare data and analytics unit. Lagging far behind is Disney. Investors are worrying about

streaming subscriber growth following weak outlooks by a weak outlook by Netflix. And that's your dash to the bell. I'm Alison Kosik in New York.

You can follow me on Twitter or Instagram @AlisonKosik. The closing bell is ringing on Wall Street. You can hear it. "THE LEAD" with Jake Tapper starts

now. Have a good weekend.

END