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Quest Means Business

CNN Poll: Most Voters Think Democrats Have Better Odds Without Biden; Judge Postpones Trump's Sentencing In Hush Money Case; Hurricane Beryl Set To Impact Jamaica On Wednesday; Police Fire Tear Gas As Protesters Deman President Ruto's Resignation; Hungary's Viktor Orban Pushes For Ceasefire In Kyiv Visit; Severe Turbulence Hits Air Europa Flight; Ukraine Olympic Team Ready For The Games. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired July 02, 2024 - 16:00   ET



PAULA NEWTON, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: So you see it there, a small lift for stocks. Jerome Powell saying today that the last two inflation readings

suggests the economy is "getting back on a deflationary path." Those are the markets and these are your main events.

In a new CNN poll, the majority of US voters say Democrats, would have a better shot keeping the White House with someone other than Joe Biden.

More than 200 candidates in France reportedly withdraw from the second round of voting. They are trying to tilt the contest against the far-right.

And people were thrown from the seats and hit the roof. Passengers described severe turbulence that injured 30 on Air Europa flight.

Live from New York. It is Tuesday, July 2nd. I'm Paula Newton, in for Richard Quest, and this is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.

And good evening, tonight for the first time, a sitting Democratic lawmaker is now calling on US President Joe Biden to drop his re-election bid. Now,

the announcement from Texas Congressman Lloyd Doggett coming after the president's disastrous performance at last week's CNN debate.

Now, his decision, a reflection apparently of the growing panic among Democrats as a string of new polls showed just how much the president's

support has slipped in the recent days.

Now, the latest one, a CNN poll, showing most voters believe Democrats have a better chance of keeping the White House if Biden is not the nominee.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has spent the past few days defending the president, admitted that questions about his health are



REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA): Now again, I think it is a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition?

And so when people ask that question, it is completely legitimate of both candidates.


NEWTON: Now, we are learning that President Biden has just scheduled his first interview since the debate.

Jeff Zeleny is in Washington and following all of the developments. I mean, it certainly is legitimate to ask and that was the problem from the press

briefing we just heard from the White House. They kept saying it was a legitimate question, but didn't actually answer anything about his


I mean, Jeff, I know you've been all over this for so long now. What do you make of all the pushback, the interview, the appearance earlier today by

the president. Is any of this working?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Look, I mean, they are trying to change the subject. They are trying to move beyond what is

really a crisis that has not only consumed the campaign, it has leaked into the White House as well.

We will only know in the days ahead if they can move beyond this or not. It is absolutely unclear.

What is clear, we know the president himself is digging in. All of our reporting indicates that he has not only not reached out to some of these

democrats directly, like former Speaker Pelosi or Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, or others, he is largely insulated here.

But we do know that they will be again, having that interview on Friday with George Stephanopoulos. It is hard to pick someone who is more

credible, more rigorous than George Stephanopoulos. So he will be on the campaign trail with them on Friday. The president will be going to

Wisconsin on Friday. He will be going to Pennsylvania on Sunday.

So now he has to prove that he is up to this job of running for president and indeed serving for president, but the answers from his aides and

whatnot have been lacking without a doubt.

So they've really not only gone backwards in terms of getting beyond the age question, but actually opened up so many, many more questions about his

fitness, but it is certainly, it is only Tuesday. I think more Democrats likely will come forward here. They are worried about their own races. They

are worried about his impact on the ballot.

But it is still, at this hour difficult to imagine him stepping away based on what we know now.

NEWTON: Yes, and it is important to frame here what is at stake for Democrats? Because given the ruling from the Supreme Court about a certain

amount of immunity, sweeping immunity in fact, that a president has, they could be looking at a second Trump term with him, also clinching Congress

in totality -- Senate, and also taking over the House.

Given all of that, Jeff, and all of your contacts, what are you hearing from donors, from Democrats and from inside the White House?


ZELENY: Look, there is anger. There is deep anger from Democrats at President Biden and his close circle of advisers for putting them in this


Look, he was already down slightly in this race. The debate was supposed to be a chance to sort of change that. Well, it did change it a bit in terms

of the conversation here about him possibly dragging down the rest of the ticket.

Now, we do not know what is going to come in four months. We do not know that Democrats by and large across the board could suffer the same fate as

President Biden. We don't know exactly what will happen on the Trump side of things.

One thing we do know, we have an unsteady president. We have a president who has to prove his ability to serve and run for office. And so far, the

burden is now on him to do that.

It is interesting, his campaign is much stronger than his candidacy is himself, so the questions are being asked, if not him, who? And that has

been one of the things that have sort of slowed all this down. And Vice President Harris, she certainly has her critics, but in our new poll, it

actually shows that she fairs better against Donald Trump than Joe Biden does.

NEWTON: Yes, which will likely embolden Democrats who do want to see Joe Biden leave the ticket.

Jeff Zeleny for us, thanks so much.

And you will be watching along with us, the Texas Congressman Lloyd Doggett, who is set to join Anderson Cooper tonight on CNN. That's 8:00 PM

here in New York.

Now, as I was just saying with Jeff, the limits of presidential immunity are being put to the test just one day after that landmark decision by the

US Supreme Court. The judge overseeing Donald Trump's hush money case has postponed the sentencing after the former president's lawyers challenged

the conviction.

Now, Trump's team cited the Supreme Court ruling, which gives presidents immunity from prosecution for core official acts.

Zachary Cohen is in Washington now on what is a really complicated story, given the fact that now Trump's legal team feel that they have a new basis

on which to even protest against this conviction.

What happens now and what do we know about the sentencing?

ZACHARY COHEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yes, Paula, as you mentioned, Judge Merchan overseeing the hush money case in New York

officially postponing today Trump's sentencing in that case until mid- September, that obviously means that Trump will not face any sort of concrete punishment for those 34 felony accounts he was convicted in

Manhattan until after he accepts the presidential nomination for the Republican Party. It is a pretty remarkable delay in that case and the one

case that has gone to trial before the 2024 election.

And look, it is a direct result, this delay of the Supreme Court's ruling on immunity. Trump's attorneys are arguing that that immunity outlined by

the Supreme Court for those official acts that the Supreme Court ruled, Trump was immune from prosecution for taking part in, that those could

apply and result in his conviction being set aside in New York and the judge agreed to hear them out on that.

They are going to file their memo outlining their case as to why the conviction should be set aside next week instead of a sentencing, then the

DA's Office in Manhattan will have a chance to respond. Ultimately, Judge Merchan writing in a letter today that he will impose that sentence on

September 18th. This is an important caveat.

He also adds: "If such is still necessary," speaking about a sentence. Really tossing this entire conviction, the one conviction that Donald Trump

-- that has been secured against Donald Trump back into limbo and at a time when Donald Trump is experiencing a series of political wins and Biden, the


NEWTON: It is an astounding turn of events when you think about especially coming out of that Supreme Court ruling. I have to ask you, let's say that

this sentencing does go through in the latter half of September. Can that sentence also be imposed?

I know this is a state issue, not a federal issue. Does the campaign enter into it at all at that point because we will be so close to the day of


COHEN: It is really uncharted waters, right? We are in an unprecedented moment where if that happens, we've never dealt with that before and look,

we do know that Donald Trump, if he does win the 2024 presidential election, he can't pardon himself from those state crimes, from those

convictions in New York, because like you said, it is a state-level case.

But we will have to wait and see. There are similar questions about whether or not Donald Trump could ultimately be put on trial in Georgia if Fani

Willis, the prosecutor down there, avoids being disqualified from the case and Trump subsequently is elected president.

So a lot of legal uncertainty and the Supreme Court's ruling yesterday, just adding a whole lot more to that bucket.

NEWTON: Yes, as you said, uncharted territory all around.

Zachary Cohen, thanks for the update. Appreciate it.

Now, President Biden took aim at his predecessor today while delivering prepared remarks, we should say on climate change. He referred to Donald

Trump and certain Republicans is climate change deniers, calling them "really dumb."

The US is poised to face a summer of harsh weather. Sixty million Americans are currently under extreme heat warnings. Biden says the federal

government must do more to help communities adapt.



JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Extreme weather events drive home the point that I've been saying for so long, ignoring climate change

is deadly and dangerous and irresponsible.

These climate fueled extreme weather events don't just affect people's lives, they also cost money, they hurt the economy, and they have a

significant negative psychological effect on people.


NEWTON: Hurricane Beryl is the latest example of how a warming ocean is creating unprecedented storms. It is now responsible for at least six

deaths in the Caribbean.

The storm is currently, in fact heading toward Jamaica as a Category Four hurricane. It is the first Atlantic storm ever to reach that strength in

June. It is only June, and it briefly grew today into a Category Five hurricane, something never seen before this early in July.

Beryl has already left behind a trail of destruction in the Southern Caribbean. The storm surge badly damaged the fishing fleet in Barbados.

Flooding has taken a toll as well on businesses and homes in the island of Martinique.

Patrick Oppmann is in Havana for us and has been following all of this.

This storm shows no sign of letting up at this point. It has not nearly done with anyone. How are those preparing, those who are in the path of the

storm right now?

PATRICK OPPMANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No, and I hope I am wrong, but the worst may be yet to come.

Beryl, as you said, it has only been a month in a hurricane season, and yet this hurricane is a history-making hurricane to develop so quickly, so

strongly in such a short amount of time so early in the season. It has created a lot of destruction so far in the Caribbean and there may be more

to come.


OPPMANN (voice over): Hurricane Beryl leaves a trail of destruction in the Caribbean. The earliest Category Five hurricane on record to ever form in

the Atlantic, Beryl roared through the Windward Islands on Monday.

In Barbados, the storm wrecked fishing boats and livelihoods.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The boats are sinking. As we are talking, there are boats sinking, you understand? And it is total devastation.

OPPMANN (voice over): At least six people have died from the storm and officials warned, the death toll would likely rise.

The UN's climate chief said the eye of the storm had hit his home island of Carriacou in Grenada, and he was trying to reach family members there.

SIMON STIELL, EXECUTIVE SECRETARY, UN CLIMATE CHANGE: The island has been flattened. The reports that are coming out show a very, very distressing


OPPMANN: There was precious little time to prepare as Beryl in 24 hours exploded from a tropical storm to a major hurricane capable of inflicting

catastrophic damage.

That rapid intensification is fueled by man-made climate change, which has caused the ocean to warm to unprecedented levels, the fuel that strengthens


Images taken from a hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Beryl showed the kind of monster storm, usually not seen until the height of hurricane

season still weeks away.

Jamaica is next in Beryl's sights and with a population of more than 2.8 million and a large tourism infrastructure, there is a potential for even

greater devastation.

Officials there activated emergency response measures and warned residents to get ready now.

ANDREW HOLNESS, JAMAICAN PRIME MINISTER: It is easier to be prepared when you're standing on your two feet than when you are in the midst of a

hurricane struck down.

OPPMANN: Low-lying islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The damage inflicted by Beryl could take years to recover from. Forecasters

have delivered a record prediction for a hyperactive hurricane season that began June 1st.

And with nearly five more months to go in the season, the pain and suffering may only be just beginning.


OPPMANN (on camera): And UN officials saying today that they expect that this hurricane season could deteriorate leaving conditions where people who

already suffering so much in Haiti for millions of people in Haiti alone.

Paula, you know, we've been talking for years about climate change affects people disproportionately, that if you live in impoverished countries in

the Caribbean, close to the ocean, then you are feeling the effects of climate change in real-time.

NEWTON: Yes, Patrick, I mean, look, I have to ask you, especially given all the work you do there in Cuba and throughout the region, that's the

problem, right? We talk about resiliency, we talk about preparedness, but so many times the people you see do not have the resources to prepare, let

alone the resources to deal with the aftermath.

OPPMANN: Here in Havana where the city is collapsing day by day under buildings that are not been properly maintained for years, and when you

talk about stocking up before a hurricane, people just don't have the wherewithal to do that.

There is no place to go and buy plywood to board up your house.


There are no supermarkets and people don't have the funds to go on, on the best of times to load up on water and food. That is really more of an

American concept that you go and load up before a storm.

In so many of these islands, they can't get out of the way of the storm because they live on an island and there really isn't the wherewithal, the

riches that you see in the US where people can go and splurge, whether they need it or not.

So people have to hunker down. They have to go where they can. There are not many buildings that are constructed to withstand a hurricane-like this,

and they do not have the ability, one, to prepare properly before a storm or to recover after a devastating storm like Beryl.

NEWTON: Such good points. Patrick, we will you stay on top of the storm, see its effects and hoping for the best certainly out of it.

Patrick Oppmann for us in Havana. Thanks so much.

Now, more than 200 candidates have reportedly stood down from the second round of the French elections. They are trying to avoid splitting the vote

against the far-right. We will discuss whether the move stands a chance after the break.


NEWTON: More than 200 candidates have reportedly stood down from the second round of France's legislative elections to avoid splitting the opposition

to the far right.

Now, the candidates belong to either President Macron's centrist coalition or parties to his left. The far right, in the meantime, National Rally

dominated the first round of voting on Sunday. It is now positioned to win at least a relative majority this weekend.

Now, if it gains enough seats, the party plans to make 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, the youngest prime minister in French history.

Rym Momtaz is a consultant research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and she joins us now.

Yes, these are quite extraordinary circumstances. Things are changing by the hour. Given the compromises with the center and the left, do you

believe that this means that the National Rally is unlikely to hold the balance of power. That in fact, Jordan Bardella will not be prime minister.


I think, yes, to a certain extent. What we are seeing right now because of all of this horse-trading, is that the chances of the far right of getting

an absolute majority and completely dominating the Parliament after Sunday are diminishing and diminishing considerably.

But that doesn't mean that they won't still possibly have a relative majority and so have the biggest caucus in the Parliament.


If that is the case, they would still have the opportunity to form a government, but in a parliament that is much more divided, much less

stable, and where they will be very vulnerable to no confidence votes.

NEWTON: When we talk about those no confidence votes and actually trying to set policy is in technical terms, are we looking at a hung parliament or

are we looking at more of a paralyzed parliament, if you will?

MOMTAZ: So far were looking at a hung parliament as the most likely outcome of this election, which also means a lot of paralysis, political deadlock,

and paralysis for friends, even on foreign policy and defense issues, by the way.

It could become a paralyzed government, but before where we get to a paralyzed government or as we are getting to that, we would have to go to

snap elections again, but we are not there yet in case of a no confidence vote, of course.

NEWTON: You know, I am very curious because obviously Macron surprised so many, apparently many within his own party by calling the snap elections.

He was banking on the fact that voters would retreat to the center and perhaps a little bit further left and not go to the far-right opponents. He

was wrong.

So I am wondering now that French voters have seen the outcome, do you think that has been tempered a bit? I mean, do you still believe that

Macron could fare better in the next round?

MOMTAZ: Paula, I think what we learned last week is that the vote for the far right in France is no longer a protest vote. It has become a vote of

support -- 10,600,000 French people decided to vote for the far-right. What we also learned is that the historic turnout what was in favor of the far-

right, that the far-right in a way has come to symbolize hope for many in France who had abstained in former elections.

This means, we are truly witnessing a political earthquake in France. Things have changed. The sociology of the voters have changed. They are

truly over all of the mainstream parties and so I am not sure that Macron is going to be able to recover from the big defeat that he already suffered

last week, and that he might suffer yet again at the end of the week.

His brand is very tarnished among the French. What may save the day, maybe the left-wing coalition, but it is also very unlikely.

NEWTON: Rym, fascinating what you're telling us and you had had already pointed out that if this happens, this has ramifications, not just for

France, but all over Europe and beyond.

When it comes to that constituency, I was shocked in terms of tuning into the French elections in the last few weeks, that it is young people who

very much are looking at the far-right as the future. Why?

MOMTAZ: Young people, workers -- they have gone way beyond their nucleus and their previous nucleus. Why are young people voting for the far-right?

I don't think we have all of the answers yet. What is clear is that they seem to feel like the far-right is listening to them more, is closer to

their concerns, something that unfortunately Emmanuel Macron, but also his party, have had a very hard time communicating to voters.

Empathy, sympathy, which Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have been able to do much better. It doesn't mean that they have answers for their

concerns, their issues related to security to migration, but also just to cost of living.

It doesn't mean that they will be able to resolve all of these issues, but what we are seeing is that a big enough proportion of the French people is

willing to at least give them a chance.

NEWTON: Rym, you've really set the table there well for us as we continue to watch this second round. We really appreciate it. Thanks so much.

MOMTAZ: Thank you, Paula.

NEWTON: Now, the UK's general election is just two days away. Yes, we did promise 2024 would be the year of elections. Voters are poised to end more

than a decade of conservative rule, a lagging economy at home and issues abroad like the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have made Brits hungry for change.

Isa Soares spoke to some young voters about their priorities. Listen.


EVIE CRAGGS, FIRST-TIME UK VOTER: I've really felt strongly about how immigration has been spoken about and dealt with during the lead up to this

election. I think, it is quite easy to almost box young people in when it comes to issues that we care about just because I am not personally

affected by immigration or it is not an issue that is particularly present in my everyday life.


CRAGGS: It doesn't mean that my empathy is not so short that I don't care about that issue greatly because I think frankly, the immigration is being

used really cynically and really horribly in the lead up to this election to kind of win votes and for Nigel Farage in particular, but he is

certainly not the only one to kind of attract attention to himself and gain social credit and political power by this discrediting some of the most

vulnerable and oppressed people in the UK at the moment.

And seeing that kind of unfold in this election process, I think, it makes me genuinely really sad.

ISA SOARES, CNN ANCHOR: Last few questions, we've focused so much on domestic policy, foreign policy. Is there any -- I mean, we've obviously

got wars in Ukraine. We know Farage has been very outspoken or made some slip-ups when it comes to his support for Putin.

Also, war, Israel-Hamas, right? Do any of those foreign policy concerns, do they weigh on your judgment? Your opinion of which way you're going to go?

CRAGGS: Frankly, like for both Conservatives and Labour and Reform in particular, the fact that they haven't really spoken out about the

atrocities happening in Gaza, I think is pretty disgusting and I would particularly expect better of Labour. It took so long for Keir Starmer to

even say to talk about the idea of a ceasefire.

CHARLIE GELL, FIRST-TIME UK VOTER: More so I think we are in a situation now which really feels, obviously, none of us were there, but it really

feels like 1930s situation. It feels like a World War is looming, and I think the UK government have being quiet strong on their foreign policy,

especially in the last four years.

I think Boris Johnson had done an excellent job with Ukraine. I mean --

SOARES: In supporting Ukraine.

GELL: Supporting Ukraine, absolutely. I think we were the leaders, especially in Europe for a long time.

It terms of the Gaza situation, I think it has really become quite an aggressive left-right issue. And I think one thing that can be taken away

from it then needs to be human life really needs to be prioritized.


GELL: Rather than making it into a left-right situation where people are losing lives every day.

SOARES: Just tell me who you think is going to win? Go ahead -- on Thursday, who do you think is going to come out on top? Who is going to be

British prime minister?


SOARES: Keir Starman.


GELL: Keir Starmer majority.

CRAGGS: Keir Starmer.


NEWTON: That was unanimous. You can tune in to CNN for all the action on election night on Thursday. Richard Quest and Isa Soares will be hosting

the special coverage beginning at 9:55 PM in London. That's 4:55 PM in Atlanta and I for one cannot wait.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met today with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. We will talk about Orban's push for a ceasefire and why some European

politicians say he is playing into Putin's hands.



NEWTON: Hello, I'm Paula Newton.

There's more QUEST MEANS BUSINESS in a moment, when Russia's biggest European ally Viktor Orbon visits Ukraine. He tells President Zelenskyy

that peace is the most important issue for Europe. And we'll discuss whether climate change is making turbulence worse after dozens were injured

on an Air Europa flights. Before that, though, these are the headlines this hour.

Mass evacuations of civilians are underway in southern Gaza as Israel escalates attacks against Hamas targets. Now the U.N. says it expects

250,000 people to be affected by the evacuation orders that include Eastern Khan Younis and Rafah. But it says they have nowhere safe to go.

At least 116 people have been killed in a stampede at a religious gathering in India. It happened during a Hindu prayer meeting in the northern state

of Uttar Pradesh. Authorities say a police report will be filed against event organizers for allegedly exceeding permitted attendance levels.

Former New York City mayor and Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani has been disbarred in New York and it's over his part in Trump's election

interference efforts in 2020. The New York Supreme Court's decision is effective immediately. Giuliani had been suspended from practicing law

while the court considered discipline proceedings against him.

Anti-government protesters in Kenya are calling for the resignation of President Ruto. Here, and you can see police firing tear gas at the

demonstrators. That was earlier. Human rights groups say 39 people have already died during these past few weeks of unrest.

Larry Madowo has our report from Nairobi.

LARRY MADOWO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Paula, police managed to kick out most of the protesters from the middle of the capital city today. But it was the

third straight week of protests here. An extraordinary moment for President William Ruto, who has a lot of respect internationally. You saw the White

House roll out the red carpet for him in back in May for that state visit, but locally he's facing significant opposition from the country's young

people who feel he's not listening to them.


MADOWO (voice-over): Protesters back on the streets in Nairobi for a third straight week, braving tear gas, flash bangs and what they say a live

round. Activists bringing empty caskets to the streets, symbolizing those killed since the protests began. Dozens according to human rights groups.

The deaths fueling the anger here.

Are you scared to be out here protesting when there are people getting killed, peaceful protests were getting killed?

LEAKEY, PROTESTER: Well, I'm not scared. What they're doing, you know, one thing you should understand is that you can bring fear or you can just

insert fear into us, but you cannot -- one thing, you cannot kill all of us.

MADOWO (voice-over): Undeterred by the deadly crackdown of previous days, taunting security forces, turning the streets of Kenya's capital into a

game of cat and mouse.

When we are here with the police taking this live, they tend to be a bit more careful how they respond to these protesters, even on the throwing

rocks at them.


(Voice-over): A Kenyan court on Friday temporarily blocked police from using tear gas and other forms of force against protesters. But that order

appears to have been violated.

KHADIJA SHABAL, PROTESTER: It was a peaceful protest, but now as you can see, the police are the ones rioting. And my question is, if the person

you're supposed to report to, to protect you, are the ones harming you, who should you go to?

MADOWO: In the chaos, men tried to break into closed shops, warning us not to film. President William Ruto has blamed criminals for infiltrating

legitimate protests. Some of the streets quick to distance themselves from the vandals.

We've seen a lot of people looting todays, some businesses breaking down things. Are you saying that --

BENJAMIN, PROTESTER: No, no, no. These are goons. Those are goons. They're not part of us.


MADOWO (voice-over): What started as youth-led protests against an unpopular finance bill, now withdrawn, has turned into demonstrations

against Ruto's government.

Smaller numbers in Nairobi now but more protesters coming from other parts of Kenya to express their anger. Yet the overwhelming fear is that no

matter how loudly this generation speaks, the government is not listening.


MADOWO (on-camera): Paula, these protests are bad for business. If this is supposed to be a busy street, supposed to be rush hour, and it's empty

here. There's so many businesses that are suffering from these, and especially when you see some looters now, some vandals taking advantage of

the situation to damage businesses and that plays into President Ruto's criticism that there are some criminals taking advantage of legitimate

protests -- Paula.

NEWTON: Our thanks to Larry for that report.

Now Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has just made his first trip to neighboring Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion. Orban is the one --

one of the few E.U. leaders who actually remains on good terms with the Kremlin. During today's meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy Orban suggested a

ceasefire might be in order.


VIKTOR ORBAN, HUNGARIAN PRIME MINISTER (through translator): I asked the president to think about whether we could reverse the order and speed up

peace talks with making a ceasefire first. A ceasefire connected to a deadline would give a chance to speed up peace talks.


NEWTON: Now given those comments, I spoke to the former prime minister of Sweden, and Carl Bildt told me that Orban is playing into Vladimir Putin's

hands. Listen.


CARL BILDT, FORMER SWEDISH PRIME MINISTER: He's effectively agreeing with what Mr. Putin said the other day, because Mr. Putin said, I'm prepared to

start discussing a ceasefire provided that Ukraine, prior to that, agrees that I would keep everything that I've occupied and more than that, more

than that, and a couple of other conditions. Mr. Orban is now playing on that path, so to say. I think that's a distinct non-starter for the time


NEWTON: You know, Orban has historically, though, been very supportive of President Putin. France's National Party has historically been friendly

towards the Kremlin as well. Poland's prime minister was interesting here in relation to talking about this far-right advance, especially in France.

I want you to listen to Donald Tusk now as he warned about politicians who are advocating, he says, as we speak, for Vladimir Putin. Listen.


DONALD TUSK, POLISH PRIME MINISTER (through translator): This is all really starting to smell of great danger. Not only the results of the first round

of the French elections, but also the information about Russian influence and Russian services in many parties of the radical right in Europe.


NEWTON: Hyperbole there or do you believe he's really nailed it?

BILDT: Well, he's talking about something that we see happening, not only the political confrontation in the rhetoric and different things being

said, but we do see Russian services of different sorts undertaking different operation across Europe. Poland has had a couple of examples of

that. Sabotage in concert with criminal groups, doing nasty stuff of different sorts. So there's the beginning of let's call it a clandestine

war that Russia is pursuing in the different countries, Poland Germany.

I think we will see it and have probably seen in other countries as well. It's a very stark reality that European politicians are aware of.

NEWTON: You know, I want to go back to something that you wrote in recent days and that's the fact that what's at stake if Ukraine loses, because you

say it has significant implications not just for Ukraine, but interesting both for Russia and Europe. I do want to turn to the implications, though,

for Europe. You're saying this would be dire in terms of the amount of refugees Europe would have to take in and its spending on defense.

BILDT: Absolutely it would have very bad amplification indeed. I mean, were they to conquer Ukraine in the sense that they still want to do, we will

have a couple of tens or further millions of refugees.


We will have a very significant change of the political atmosphere of Europe. We will be forced to undertake a significant boosting of defense

expenditure. So doubling perhaps in relation to what we have today. And there will be confrontation that will have very significant implications

for European security. And add to that, the global ramification. It will be seen as a very clear sign of the decline of American power all over the



NEWTON: And our thanks to Carl Bildt there.

Now 30 people were hurt when an Air Europa flight hits severe turbulence. Scientists say climate change is likely to make these kinds of incidents

more common. We'll have all the details next.


NEWTON: Air Europa says six people aboard a flight that hit severe turbulence on Monday are now still in hospital. More than 30 people were

hurt overall.

Now you can see the damage inside of the Boeing Dreamliner, isn't that incredible, which had to make an emergency landing in Brazil. Passengers

described people but being thrown from their seats and hitting the ceiling. Video from social media appears to show one person being helped down from

an overhead bin, if you can imagine.

A similar incident took place aboard a Singapore Airlines flight a little more than a month ago. More than 70 people on that flight were hurt and one

died of a suspected heart attack. Some scientists have linked a warming planet to certain types of turbulence.

Paul Williams is a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading, and we are happy to have you with us as all of us look at these

incidents and quite frankly are getting a bit nervous.

I mean, you were involved in a study in 2017 that found that a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere could cause light

turbulence to increase almost 60 percent. Moderate, not so much really inconsequential. But moderate to severe turbulence you're saying would more

than double at least from that study. What do you say now, given all the evidence that you're reviewing?

PAUL WILLIAMS, PROFESSOR OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF READING: Yes. Well, you're right. We've been studying the effects of climate change

on aviation turbulence for at least a decade now. There are three main kinds of turbulence that can affect you if you're on a flight. One is just

the obvious one of flying through a storm, which nobody wants to do. Actually flying over a mountain range can also be quite bumpy.


And there's a third kind called clear air turbulence, which is the invisible kind caused by strong air currents called jet streams. And we

have evidence now that all three kinds of aviation turbulence are projected to strengthen because of climate change. So the clear air turbulence in

particular can be hazardous because the seatbelt sign could be switched off. You can't see it out of the window, doesn't show up on the radar.

And yes, as you say, there's already in fact been a 55 percent increase in the amount of severe turbulence over the North Atlantic since 1979 when

satellites first began observing it. And the projections for the future are could be a doubling in the worst-case scenario a troubling in the coming


NEWTON: For those of us who are not gifted in science, can you in simple terms just describe the relationship between the warming or any kind of

climate change and turbulence, why it's affecting turbulence?

WILLIAMS: Yes, it's not necessarily obvious, and so let's talk about the clear air turbulence, which is what I've been specializing in. So we have

the jet streams, of course, which blow from west to east across North America, across the North Atlantic, Europe, all the way around the world,

in fact. And in the jet streams, you have a separation of air masses, if you like, between cold air to the north, with the northern hemisphere jet

stream, and warmer air to the south.

And what climate change is doing is that at flight cruising altitudes, it's actually warming the warm air to the south of the jet stream more than the

colder air to the north. So that temperature difference in these clash of air masses that drives the jet stream is getting stronger and that's

driving a more sheared jet stream. So that what we call the wind shear in the jet stream has already increased by 15 percent since satellites first

began observing it, and it is essentially wind share that generates clear air turbulence. So that's the link there, from temperatures to winds to


NEWTON: That is fascinating and you described that in a way that even I can understand. So thank you very much. It makes much more sense to me now.

Now this is starting to occur more often. Now look, beyond the obvious in terms of buckling up, again, if we drill down into the science, what can

help here? Can AI modeling help us? Can more of an early warning system help us? Are there different materials and aircraft manufacturing that can

help us?

WILLIAMS: All of the above, I think, and we have scientists that are working on all of the above. And we know that for every three patches of

severe turbulence over the North Atlantic today, one of those three is there because of climate change, the climate change that has happened since

1979. The other two would have been there anyway. And in future we could see two in every three there because of climate change. So clearly we have

to do something.

All I'm saying, and I have to emphasize this, is that there's more turbulence in the atmosphere. That doesn't necessarily mean there's more

turbulence on flights because we're actually getting better all the time at avoiding turbulence through better turbulence forecasts, the aircraft

designs are better now, they have a better dynamic response to turbulence. And there's actually a kind of technology that's a little bit experimental

right now called lidar, which involves shining a laser out of the front of the aircraft.

And in fact, it can get reflected back, that laser light, by invisible turbulence ahead. This could be a game changer if it gets rolled out. And

it's currently a bit too expensive and a bit -- it's a big, heavy box which no one really wants in the nose cone of an aircraft. But as the technology

gets miniaturized and the cost comes down, maybe in future we'll see it rolled out and that could really revolutionize clear air turbulence.

There'll be no excuse for really any aircraft ever encountering it again. So quite some excitement there if this technology miniaturizes and the cost

comes down in future.

NEWTON: Yes, that is so reassuring, especially for people who know they may be safe on an airplane with turbulence, but still get a little freaked out

when it's actually happening.

Professor Paul Williams, so educational. Thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

WILLIAMS: Been a pleasure. Thank you.

NEWTON: Now the Paris Summer Olympics are right around the corner and Ukraine's athletes have more on their minds as you can imagine than medals.



NEWTON: Less than a month away from the Paris Olympics. Athletes right across the globe are making their final preparations. For the Ukrainian

team making it to the games will feel like an achievement all on its own. With the eyes of their war-torn nation on them, they're competing for more

than just medals.

CNN's Amanda Davies has the exclusive report.


AMANDA DAVIES, CNN SPORT ANCHOR (voice-over): The start of Olympics month, as you'd expect a competition scene of athletes with their eyes on the


But this is Ukraine, and national championships started with a moment of silence for lives lost. As the two-time gold medal winner World Athletics

president Sebastian Coe knows how hard the road to Olympic glory can be. And he's fulfilling a promise to the Ukrainian athletes traveling to visit

them at home. We were invited to join him for the journey.

What is the message you want to send for this trip?


DAVIES (voice-over): World Athletics are the only Olympic sports federation to have banned all Russian and Belarusian athletes from elite competition

since the start of the full-scale invasion.


COE: Mr. President.

DAVIES: First stop, a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to reiterate their commitment.

ZELENSKYY: Thank you for coming again and thank you for supporting our sportsmen and Ukrainians.

DAVIES: There had been talk of a boycott of the games by Ukraine after the International Olympic Committee refused to take a tougher stance on

athletes from Russia and Belarus, leaving the door open for individuals to qualify as neutrals, providing they fulfill certain criteria.

COE: I did use the opportunity to make him absolutely understand that if he does make it to Paris, then he has an open invitation to watch the number

one Olympic sport.

DAVIES: This gymnasium here in Kyiv was hit by a missile in March. Incredibly, nobody was killed and it's one of 518 sporting facilities that

have been damaged or destroyed over the last few years, 15 of which have been Olympic facilities.

(Voice-over): It's meant many of the country's top athletes have been forced to train abroad, sporting refugees traveling from training camp to

training camp, event to event in their quest to keep their Olympic dreams on track.

No member of this team has been spared the impact of the war, 400-meter hurdler Viktoriia Tkachuk with so much more on her mind than the finish

line with her brother Ivan fighting for his country on the frontline of the war against Russia.

VIKTORIIA TKACHUK, TWO-TIME OLYMPIAN, 400M HURDLES: I was sitting in my train already and I saw him through the window, and I realized that I

really don't know if I will see him again. And that would hurt. I'm sorry.


DAVIES: The most vivid of reminders of the state of play just a stone's throw from the Lviv Athletic Stadium. A burial ground for soldiers killed

in the conflict. Among them, several of the at least 479 athletes who've died, a number that gives a very different meaning to the phrase fighting

for your country that's so often used in the sporting context, and faces and lives lost that provide all the motivation any Ukrainian athlete will

need in Paris.

Amanda Davies, CNN, Lviv, Ukraine.


NEWTON: We'll be right back with more in a moment.


NEWTON: Wall Street finished higher after Fed chair Jerome Powell said U.S. inflation is clearly slowing. The Dow picked up 162 points. Powell was

speaking at an ECB conference in Portugal where he also warned about the U.S. debt. Listen.


JEROME POWELL, U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR: The United States is running a very large deficit at a time when we're at full employment. And it just is

-- the level of debt that we have is not unsustainable. The path that we're on is unsustainable. That's completely noncontroversial.


NEWTON: Noncontroversial as we continue to see what happens with that government debt.

We want to have a look now at Dow components, financials top, Visa are on top, pardon me. Visa and JPMorgan Chase. Apple, Amazon, and IBM, you can

see them there, not far behind Verizon. You can see taking a loss on the day.

That is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. I'm Paula Newton. "THE LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER" starts right now.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: And welcome to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper.

This hour, just one day after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump has immunity from prosecution for official acts that he committed

while in office --