Return to Transcripts main page
Quest Means Business
Trump Tells CBS News War With Iran Is Very Complete; Rising Oil Prices Likely To Ripple Through Global Economy; Iran War Putting Pressure On Hotel Groups In The Region; Oil Prices Break Through $100 Barrier, Before Falling; Israel Has Vowed To Target Successor To Iran's Supreme Leader; Five Players From Iranian Women's Football Team Granted Asylum; Anthropic Sues Donald Trump Administration Over "Supply Chain Risk" Label. Aired 4-5p ET
Aired March 09, 2026 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[16:00:17]
RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST, "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS": Closing bell ringing on Wall Street there you are. It is the Investing in Women Small
Business Day, International Women's Day which is closing the closing bell.
As for the market itself, what an extraordinary day. Madam, please hit the bell. Sorry, hit the gavel. Come on! Oh, we've got two gavels. This is
unusual. Oh, there we go.
Trading is over for the day, but I want you to look at this, because this is the sort of weird day we are down throughout the whole session, and
this. Why? the word complete happened? I will explain in a moment.
Those are the markets and the main event that you and I are talking about.
Stocks that remarkable comeback, it happened because President Trump reportedly says the war against Iran is, in his words very complete.
Rising oil prices and a slower U.S. Job Market for possibility of stagflation. The former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida is with us tonight
to put that into context.
And the hotels in the Gulf have been targeted. The chief executive of Radisson will join me to tell me what is happening and what is likely to be
next.
We are live in London tonight, Monday, March the 9th. I am Richard Quest, a year older and I mean business.
Good evening.
I want to go immediately to look at that Dow chart again, please, so I can show you exactly what is happening because it was so remarkable where it
goes from red to green. Why? What happened?
President Trump told CBS News that the U.S. operation in Iran is ahead of schedule, and he used in his words, "very complete," adding that Iran's
military capabilities have been severely diminished. CBS asked Mr. Trump if he had any message for the new leader, the Supreme Leader in Iran. He said,
I have no message for him. None whatsoever.
That is why the market has suddenly gone up so sharply, but how long that lasts and what the significance of and whether this is just a kneejerk is
somewhat doubtful because Iran says its strategy is to put immense economic pressure on the U.S. and the Gulf and the global oil markets, that's what
panicked.
Brent crude soared to nearly $120.00 a barrel earlier, it then pulled back. It closed around $100.00. Price is up 30 percent over the last five days.
The reason is obvious, 20 percent of the world's supply has been impacted, with the largest disruption in history.
Now to those comments from the Iranian advisor. Fred Pleitgen sat down in Tehran with an exclusive interview with Kamal Kharazi, he serves as the
foreign policy advisor to the Supreme Leader.
Now CNN, we operate in Iran with the permission of the Iranian government, as required under regulations. But we maintain full editorial control over
what we report and what we say.
And the advisor Kharrazi says the economic pressure is only just beginning.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAMAL KHARAZI, FORMER MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF IRAN: I don't see any room for diplomacy anymore because Donald Trump has been deceiving others
and not keeping with his promises, and we experienced it in two times of negotiations that while we were engaged in negotiation, he struck us.
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: How does all of this end then? If you say right now there is no room for negotiation,
President Trump says he wants complete surrender. What does that lead to?
KHARAZI: There is no room unless the economic pressure would be built up to the extent that other countries would intervene to guarantee this
termination of aggression of Americans and Israelis against Iran.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Anna Cooban is with me.
Economic pressure built up to the point where allies put pressure on the U.S. and Israel. That's what the basically this strategy is from Iran.
ANNA COOBAN, CNN BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS REPORTER: Yes. And I think it is interesting. You know, we have heard that from Trump. He thinks it is very
complete, but really, you know, it takes two to tango in this conflict and we hear from Iran that actually they are -- they sound very much like they
want to sort of stay the course with this and they have been attacking oil infrastructure in the region as well.
[16:05:10]
It is still the case that these tankers carrying all the oil around the world market, they cannot get through that Strait of Hormuz, through which
around a fifth of the world's oil supply goes every single day, and then the knock-on impact of that, Richard is everything that oil produces,
everything that oil goes into, you've got gasoline in cars, you've got jet fuel. Will we see higher airline ticket prices? You've then got everything
else like fertilizers that goes through that Strait.
So Trump can say -- make that statement, but the reality on the ground is this choke point is still very much choked off.
QUEST: Right. But the strategy of Iran is clearly one of economics to -- well, he has just not -- he admitted it, if the U.S. is saying that they
are very complete can you square that circle?
COOBAN: Well, it all sounds very simple from how Trump is saying it, but I just want to point you to one fact here is that you've got these oil wells
in Kuwait the UAE, they've shut off some of those wells because of the conflict that's happened over the past few days.
Now, oil traders have been panicking because it is not so easy to turn them back on. It is not like a light switch once you shut them off. And so yes,
let's say the conflict ends hypothetically within the next hour, Richard, it is still the case that there will be this knock-on impact because of
that, because of those oil wells in and of themselves being shut.
QUEST: And as you say, that defines also what does the conflict ends or very complete mean? Because Iran just has to keep up the threat to keep the
strait closed and it becomes very difficult.
COOBAN: Exactly. We've seen major oil tanker companies. They've basically not letting their ships through because of the fear of being attacked and
that fear is enough to keep ships from not going through, so it is about the reality, it is also about, you know, the perception of whether or not
it is safe to go through the Strait of Hormuz.
QUEST: Right. Well, one more for you though. The idea that somehow that you know, Iran can control the way this moves forward. What do you make?
COOBAN: Well, Iran, just as you've said, just needs to threaten that it will attack vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz and that is enough
to prevent shipping companies from sending their seafarers through. And, you know, we are seeing at the moment, of course, the U.S. has said that
they can provide insurance to oil tankers, but that won't be enough. It is like bringing a sticking plaster to a very serious situation, to a wound of
a problem and it is going to -- I think it is going to be a while before we really see these nerves in the market really calm down.
QUEST: Right. Good to be with you. Thank you very much, indeed. Thank you.
Now flights to and from Dubai's International Airport are resuming after nearby drone attacks over the weekend. The UAE has been amongst the hardest
hit, but a dozen Middle East countries now say they've been struck by Iranian projectiles of one sort or another.
Paula Hancocks, now with this report from the UAE.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh my God!
(EXPLOSION)
PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The impact of strikes in the United Arab Emirates is far beyond the U.S. military and
political targets that Iran claims. Hotels, airports and energy infrastructure have been damaged by more than 1,700 missiles and drones
fired since the start of the war.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Target destroyed.
HANCOCKS (voice over): The Emirati military has intercepted more than 90 percent.
UAE President, Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan has visited the injured in hospital, giving rare comments warning the country's enemies.
MOHAMED BIN ZAYED AL NAHYAN, UAE PRESIDENT (through translator): Do not be misled by the United Arab Emirates' appearance. The UAE has thick skin and
bitter flesh. We are no easy prey.
HANCOCKS (voice over): After decades of bitter rivalry between Iran and its Gulf neighbors, recent years had seen a rapprochement between Tehran and
Abu Dhabi. Trade was expanding, around half a million Iranians call the UAE home, so why is Iran seemingly firing more projectiles at the UAE than at
Israel? The country who, along with the United States, started this war.
FAWAZ GERGES, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, LSE: Dubai is really the epicenter of globalization. It's a powerhouse, and any attacks on the
United Arab Emirates on Dubai is really a power multiplier from the Iranian perspective.
It rattles the world economy.
HANCOCKS (voice over): Around 100 kilometers of water separate the UAE from Iran. Missiles do not take long to reach Emirati shores.
GERGES: Literally, it is next door. It is much easier to attack Dubai and the United Arab Emirates than to attack other countries, let's say Jordan
or Israel, because Israel is well protected by an air defense system.
HANCOCKS (voice over): Iran cites the U.S. strategic alliance as a reason to fire on Gulf nations.
[16:10:02]
President Donald Trump was here last May, securing pledges for $3 trillion worth of deals from the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: We have an Iran situation, which we are going to take care of. One way or the other,
we are taking care of it. It will be taken care of 100 percent.
HANCOCKS (on camera): This is not how the UAE or any Gulf nation wanted it to be taken care of. They had lobbied Trump to favor diplomacy over war and
a refusal to allow Trump to use its air bases or its airspace has not insulated the UAE from Iran's retaliation.
(PROTESTERS chanting)
HANCOCKS (voice over): Relations between the UAE and Iran had been strained since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Three islands claimed by Abu Dhabi
are still controlled by Tehran, but the UAE did restore its Ambassador to Tehran in 2022, signaling a cautious diplomatic reset after years of
strain.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh my God!
(EXPLOSION)
HANCOCKS (voice over): A reset that has been shattered by Iran's decision to force its neighbors into this war.
Paula Hancocks, CNN, Dubai.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
QUEST: Fred Pleitgen joins me from Tehran.
Good evening, Fred. Thank you.
I want to focus very firmly. I heard your interview. We've been talking about it. That answer that the advisor gave where he said this -- you asked
him, how does this end? He said it ends when the economic pressure from others, from the allies is put upon Israel and the United States.
That is a fascinating aspect which gives us the insight into the significance of these attacks on the oil, on keeping the Strait of Hormuz
closed and beyond.
PLEITGEN: Yes, especially Richard, the Strait of Hormuz, and I think that's one of the main strategic points that the Iranians are trying to make, is
that there is going to be economic pressure, great economic pressure on these Gulf countries.
Of course, we are already hearing some of that, for instance, from Kuwait, also from Qatar, and also from the UAE, as Paula was just reporting there,
but also other countries as well. Of course, there are so many parts of the world that get oil and gas from these Gulf countries, and of course, a lot
of that is transited through the Strait of Hormuz.
One of the other countries, of course, that we also need to talk about when we talk about the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, is Iraqi oil
that's also exported as well, so the Iranians certainly do believe that they could have a chokehold on that, and it seems as though that economic
pressure that results from that is something that they are banking on, would make these countries put pressure on the United States to try and end
the war -- Richard.
QUEST: Two points I want to quickly raise. Firstly, you may have seen -- I don't know how much access you have, this idea that Donald Trump says,
firstly that this may be very complete is how he is describing the war at the moment. And the second thing is, he is now starting to suggest he may
take over the Strait of Hormuz.
I mean, this is how long is a piece of string when I throw this at you. What will they make of all of that in Tehran?
PLEITGEN: Well, first of all, the Iranians are saying that they are still very much in control here. One of the things that they keep saying is they
believe that the aims of the combat operations against them by the Israelis and the Americans have constantly been changing. And I know that President
Trump, in his statement there apparently said that the Iranians don't have a Navy anymore, as he put it, that they are not capable of firing as many
ballistic missiles as maybe they had been in the past.
Their air defense systems had been taken down. That all might be true, or a lot of that might be true. But at the same time, the Iranians are saying,
they maintain all the control here on the ground of the country that the political and military structure here of this country is still very much
intact, and also that they are still capable of firing missiles at Israel and at other U.S. military installations here in the region.
So, the Iranians are certainly saying that they believe that they can weather all of this and they can stay in the game for a very long time --
Richard.
QUEST: Fred Pleitgen, in Tehran. It is late at night. I am grateful. Thank you, Fred, as always.
The higher oil prices that Fred was talking about, that we've been talking about affect the entire economic pipeline, which is what we are going to be
talking about.
First of all, and most importantly of all, it affects gas prices, the actual price that people pay at the pump. That is arguably the most
important part: What people pay for their gasoline.
But there is more because you have transportation costs as it moves through the pipeline, moving up and further on, you have higher transportation
costs.
There is nothing original about all of this by the way. We've had it in every crisis known to man, but that is also -- it is this bit which can
then be passed on to consumers, and then as you've got transportation, gas, transportation, you then really get into the manufacturing pressuring cost.
And as this develops, that then -- because oil is used in plastics, packaging, chemicals, you name the lot of it.
[16:15:10]
So overall, companies ask customers to pay more. And then finally, as you might expect, the whole chain is complete because you end up with higher
household energy costs.
The higher oil prices makes energy more expensive in so many ways. This is the way in which higher oil prices affects just about everything that we
are all doing.
Now, given the state of the U.S. jobs market, economists are growing concerned about stagflation. You can see there from there, no growth,
higher inflation. You end up with that dreadful phrase stagflation, which is where growth slows, so nothing can and prices rise.
Richard Clarida is the global economic adviser at PIMCO, former Vice Chair at the Fed. He joins me now.
Richard, it is good to see you. I feel like we are talking Economics 101 in many ways, because what we are talking about is fundamental to the way in
which the economy grows.
How concerned are you by these higher oil prices?
RICHARD CLARIDA, GLOBAL ECONOMIC ADVISER AT PIMCO, FORMER VICE CHAIR AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE: Well Richard, first of all, it has been too long, thank
you for having me on your show.
I think, it will depend how long oil prices stay at this level. I know that sounds like a cop out, but it is really true. If this lasts a week or so
then no harm really to the global economy. But the longer this persists, then the more this feeds into prices, the more it dislocates other adjacent
markets potentially the labor market.
So, the honest answer, Richard, is it is just too soon to tell.
QUEST: Okay, but if we look at the last job numbers, which were pretty awful, and we know that -- and we know that inflation is above trend and
has been for, you know, for Yonks, where does the Fed's priority now lie do you think? Bearing in mind what they are seeing with oil prices. Until now,
they have been very much the priority on the dual mandate is jobs. Does that remain the case?
CLARIDA: I think even before these geopolitical events, the Fed said in January that they felt that the outlook, the risk were more balanced to the
labor market, to inflation as you correctly point out, inflation has been above target now since 2021. The inclination of Central Bankers and
Governor Waller last week spoke to this, it is to look through even a large increase in oil prices, so long as they think the underlying inflation
trends in the economy are heading back towards target.
So, I think that will be their initial inclination, but we heard last week, for example from ECB official Schnabel, who indicated and I think it is a
point shared by a lot of Central Bankers that because of the recent history, Central Banks can't get too relaxed about assuming inflation
expectations are anchored.
So, as of today, I think the inclination at the Fed under what will some point become the Warsh Fed will be to look through this, but it will
probably be a more engaged discussion at the meetings than we might have seen in the past.
QUEST: You see the difficulty is, we had the tariffs where we all thought that was going to have a much greater inflationary effect. Now, for
whatever reason, it did not either because it was eaten or whatever. It did not feed through to the same extent that many economists had feared.
Will that same thing happen with the oil price, do you think?
CLARIDA: Well oil, the direct expenditure on oil and energy is a relatively small part of the economy. But as you mentioned, it does feed in for
example, into jet fuel and it feeds into plastics. And the manufacturing process.
And so again, this is going to depend on how long oil prices remain elevated. You know, if you look at the commodity markets, the futures
markets, they have oil prices coming down pretty substantially in the summer, and if that happens, probably not a big effect on the economy. So,
it is going to depend on how long they stay here.
QUEST: You know, it is really -- you know, better than anybody, Richard. It is really complicated, this, because we've also got the fact -- we've also
got to factor in the dollar has strengthened which is entirely predictable as the safe haven. Well, that of course negates some of the inflationary
aspects to it and at the same time, you've got -- I mean, gold coming off the top or going back on again.
If you had to take the temperature of the U.S. economy, what would you say it is?
[16:20:08]
CLARIDA: Oh my gosh. Well, I guess, if 98.6 is normal, then, you know maybe 98.7 or 98.8 right now.
QUEST: Interesting. Where the U.S. now fits in globally? The ECB has done a better job on inflation arguably. The BoE is well and truly stuck. The
Reserve Bank of Australia is on a frolic of its own, and maybe looking at doing other things over there.
The global economy, I mean, I will give you an example. You'll have seen -- you might have seen today, Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the IMF,
basically said you need to think the unthinkable and then be prepared for it.
Now, when somebody has sober minded as Kristalina, who we both know well, says that, think the unthinkable and be prepared for it. How does one do
that?
CLARIDA: Well obviously, it requires a discipline, and I think it requires also some organization. You know, there is always an unlimited number of
things that you can worry about. I think you have to have a sense certainly when you're investing on terms of investing in ways that will be robust
across different scenarios, but I think, it is important also, we've seen in the past, for example as you mentioned last year with the tariffs or
when the Fed started hiking in 2022 and 2023 and the odds of a recession were 75 percent.
And so, there can be a lot of doom and gloom that enters into psychology that turns out to be unwarranted as well. So, I do think you need a
balanced approach, even when you're thinking about the unthinkable .
QUEST: What are you advising at PIMCO?
CLARIDA: Well, you know, we are trying to keep on top of the geopolitics as CNN and everyone else, we are obviously focused on having our portfolios
for our clients, you know, deliver returns and also be robust against various and sundry outcomes.
You know, we went through a similar process a year ago after Liberation Day, which at least in the month of April last year, looked very disruptive
and had a very good year. And so we are just trying to keep our eye on the ball right now.
QUEST: Richard, I am grateful. Let's not leave it too long before we are speaking again. It is always great to talk to you.
CLARIDA: I agree. Thank you, Richard.
QUEST: Thank you. Thank you so much, sir.
Now, QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, the conflict in the Middle East is posing problems for hotel owners. The chief executive of Radisson about how his
properties -- there he is. We are going to talk to you about how you are faring, sir, and what you're expecting next.
QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. We will be with you after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:25:23]
QUEST: Radisson Hotels in Iraq and Bahrain have been damaged in this conflict. The hotel group has more than 60 properties throughout the
region. Most of them are in Saudi and in the UAE. They could face even more pressure as travel to the region slows.
Federico Gonzalez is the chief executive of Radisson Hotels. Federico is with me now.
First of all, sir, relieved that there are no injuries or worse at those, - - the damaged one from a hit by a drone and the other from the debris from an intercepted drone. And I mean, this is just a very strong example of the
risk you, your hotels and your employees are facing and your guests are facing.
FEDERICO GONZALEZ, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, RADISSON HOTELS: Well actually, good evening, Richard.
I think, as you say, you know, it is like any building in the world in this kind of situation, you have some risks. I think, we are so far fortunate
because we have 75 hotels in the region there is only one hotel that was somehow affected in Iraq, actually a couple of others just had kind of
broken glasses at the end.
So, I mean -- I would say life continues so far, and there has been no casualties, no people damaged, and I think at the end, in a situation like
this is always the number one priority to make sure that guests and employees are safe and so far, you know, that's the situation.
QUEST: And at the same time as you're dealing with, of course these problems, the actual bookings for these hotels, I mean, I know the
reservations for many of them, the reservation, the reservation is closed. But there are -- there is no shortage of people who want to stay in some of
these properties because either they are stranded from holidays that they can't get out of, or people who just want the safety of it.
GONZALEZ: Well I think you're absolutely right. It is a complex, let's say, mix of effects. I think when you look to the region, okay, so far occupancy
level is not good. We have situations where some people, even locals, prefer to be in a given moment in a hotel or in the shelter or wherever a
situation of crisis happens, you know you may be more protected by the quality of the buildings that actually in some other situations.
In other cases, as you say, some people is now not yet able to go back home. So they stay in the hotels and we try to adapt the hotels and the
availability to make sure that they have a place to be and sometimes also, you know, some of the people who work in the offices, let's say, out of the
hotels also come to work in the hotel sometimes, so it is a kind of mixed situation.
QUEST: What have you decided to do in terms of pricing in this scenario? And the reason I ask this is because obviously, we are seeing with
airlines, it is not that they are raising the prices, it is just that the natural algorithms of the demand -- you know, of the GDS is, they see this
demand and the price of the tickets goes up. It can't be helped, that's the -- you know, you can go in and you can reverse it, but at the same thing in
hotels, obviously your sophisticated GDS are recognizing a much higher level of demand.
GONZALEZ: Yes. But I think in this case, you know, usually those algorithms, as you say work pretty well. And you see, let's say natural
demand. I think when a crisis like this usually happens, the first thing you usually do is work with the local authorities and with the communities
that are also other hotels where at the end you will try to help sometimes, one hotel helps another hotel, you know, to cope with the situation or
talking about supplies or goods and also you collaborate a lot with authorities. And in this case, we are doing that nearly in almost any of
the countries.
So you will not see unreasonable situations, and on the contrary, there is an easiness in some of the places to ease some passengers or some people
that have stayed or maybe had booked for two days and now need to be two months. So actually, there is flexibility in terms of the tariffs and in
the payments conditions.
And in some of the cases, governments and local authorities are helping the guests who are being trapped in the hotels in some situations, to be able
to cope with it. I would say across the region, we have seen everywhere a very good behavior from everybody.
[16:30:03]
QUEST: And final thought, does the -- I mean, in some ways this is the nightmare scenario for the fantastic resorts of the Gulf that there was
always going to be the potential for this sort of thing. Has this in any way shaken your resolve for your future investment strategy for those
countries?
GONZALEZ: No, I don't think so and I don't think so. Why? Because, you know, as we have talked in other occasions, you know, when you have a
company and hotels nearly, almost in any place of the world, you need to be able not to say, as you said before, of thinking the unthinkable. But, you
know, at least cope with a huge amount of level of uncertainty in different regions.
And I think there are structural long-term bets that do not change for a short-term situation. You know, our bet -- our bet in the in the region, is
very serious. We have been growing and being one of the largest companies in the world. We have resources now in Saudi in place. We have significant
amount of employees, deploying systems, investing in new hotels, as you said.
And actually, that's a long-term -- a long-term bet that that will materialize in two, three, five, 10 years. And I think those kind of bets
are structural, so they would only change if something is structural, OK, would change.
So, so far, no, on the contrary, we are, all you know, wishing the situation to get normalized and bring as many people back to normal as fast
as possible.
QUEST: I'm grateful, Federico, as always, you've taken time out of your busy day to talk to us on QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. And I thank you for that,
sir. Thank you, Federico, joining me from Belgium tonight.
GONZALEZ: My pleasure. It's my pleasure. Thank you.
QUEST: QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, Israeli strikes on Iran's fuel depots. The apocalyptic scenes that we saw and concerns from the administration,
reaction from Israel's foreign minister.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:35:06]
QUEST: Hello. Good evening. I'm Richard Quest. We will have a lot more QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. Iran state media says people publicly showing support
for the country's new Supreme Leader. Anthropic is suing the Trump administration for effectively blacklisting the company from government
work. All of that is to come after the headlines, because this is CNN and on this network, the news comes first.
A top Iranian official says his country is prepared for a long war. Kamal Kharazi is a foreign policy adviser to the supreme leader. He told our
Frederik Pleitgen in an exclusive interview, there's no room for diplomacy, and says the war will only end through economic pain.
Two men are facing terrorism charges in New York City, for instance, near the mayor's official home. Teenage suspects are accused of tossing homemade
bombs into a crowd during protests on Saturday. Prosecutors say the two were inspired by ISIS, and according to court documents, one of them has
said they wanted to create a terror event worse than the Boston Marathon bombing.
Live Nation and Ticketmaster have settled a federal lawsuit that accused them of monopolizing the live music industry. The lawsuit claimed the two
companies who merged in 2010 were helping to keep ticket prices high. The settlement avoids a breakup of the two and will let facilities use
competitors and not require them to work exclusively with Ticketmaster.
Oil prices hit their highest level since mid-22, that happened on Monday, when markets were shaken in 22 after Russia's full-scale invasion of
Ukraine. Crude prices today broke through $100 a barrel, they went up to 120 at one point and then fallen back.
West Texas will also surge both of them. They're pretty much in lockstep at the moment. There may be some relief after President Trump told CBS News
that he believes the war is, in his words, very complete. The president also says he's thinking of taking over the Strait of Hormuz.
And Amrita Sen is the founder and director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, and is with me now.
Very complete. What does that mean?
AMRITA SEN, FOUNDER AND DIRECTOR, MARKET INTELLIGENCE AT ENERGY ASPECTS: I don't know. You've got to ask him what that means. I think the market also
doesn't know what President Trump means by very complete but I do think everyone's expecting some form of de-escalation, because Trump, in
particular, doesn't necessarily want high oil prices. That's been a pain point. He's, you know, he's talked about this many times.
QUEST: But yesterday he says it's a price we have to pay. Grow up. It was a version of grow up. Don't be -- don't be foolish if you think otherwise.
The moment he says, very complete the market, the equities. I mean, it was -- it was worse that we would receive from the chart. It was almost
infantile on the back of one comment to be having such a dramatic reaction.
SEN: I don't think I've ever seen something like this. We've, I think, bounced around $35.00 in crude today. Yes, going from 92 close on Friday,
120 almost, and then back down on that one comment, and nothing from the physical market standpoint, has changed. I'm not expecting tomorrow,
suddenly, for these tankers to go through the Straits.
QUEST: Right. Let's talk about that. We've got -- we've got a glut of oil, in the sense of, there's no shortage, or until then, there was no actual
physical shortage.
So, the shortage that exists in terms of the price is that they can't -- the oil can't get around the Strait, it's virtually nothing going through,
and the infrastructure is being badly degraded, of in Iran and Bahrain and elsewhere, that's what's driving the price at the moment.
SEN: So, I'd say yes, in terms of what is stuck, it's about 10 million barrels per day. 15 million barrels per day goes through the Strait. Five-
ish can be diverted by Saudi Arabia and UAE through other methods. 10 stuck.
10, just for context, is 2.5 times what Russia, more or less, exports at least double, right? And that's what we were worried about during the
Russia Ukraine crisis. So just putting it into perspective.
The challenge is infrastructure, yes, being attacked, but upstream is not being shut down because of that. It's because storage is full, or over six
million barrels per day of actual production shot ins.
QUEST: So, if we've got all these ships, and we saw on a marine tracker how they're now all at anchor, whether they've got load or not, they are all at
anchor. What do you make of this idea that you can escort them through, Emmanuel Macron's suggestion.
SEN: And the U.S. had suggested the same thing, except nothing changed after the U.S. suggested that, because it does take a few weeks, and that's
what when we're talking to shippers, they're telling us, when we've gone to the U.S., they're like, we're not ready yet. Also, they did the same thing
during the -- in the Red Sea last year. Nothing changed there either.
[16:40:06]
QUEST: I know you look at particularly oil, but there's a lot of other stuff that goes through the Strait. I mean, container ships for the trans-
shipment to do the -- for the Dubai Jebel Ali -- Jebel Ali port, all that sort of stuff.
SEN: Gas, LNG goes through products, everything, all of that.
QUEST: And that's all stuck?
SEN: Everything is stuck. But this is why, coming back to what you were saying, I also want to push back a little bit about this notion of this
glut, right? We have built stocks, but all of this, or most of this, is in China. And the Chinese are not going to give us the oil to consume right
now. In fact, they are saying to their refiners don't export the products, we need to look after ourselves. Security of supply is at the top of the
agenda.
QUEST: Have you ever seen anything like this before?
SEN: Never in my career.
QUEST: Well, somewhere to go then haven't we? Thank you very much indeed.
SEN: Thank you.
QUEST: Good to see you, thank you.
Coming up next, crowds in Iran pledging allegiance the new Supreme Leader. We look at his appointment and the war and the future in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Iran state media say people are publicly showing support for the country's new Supreme Leader. Videos show it appears to be large crowds
holding flags and portraits of Mojtaba Khamenei. His selection is widely regarded as a continuation of the status quo. He takes over from his
father, Ali Khameneis, who was killed, of course, on almost day one of the war. Analysts say appointing the second son sends a strong message of
defiance to Donald Trump.
Israel's vowed to target any successor to Iran's. There's Nick Paton Walsh, he's in Tel Aviv.
Now, bearing in mind that President Trump says he believes it's a great mistake that Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed, it does not bode well for him
some would say.
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: You're absolutely right, Richard, this is pretty much the one thing that President
Trump said he didn't want to happen, and Iran has gone ahead and done it.
But it's important not to forget how President Trump can simply turn on a dime or choose to forget something he has previously said, he has just in
an interview, suggested the war is very complete, and appears to have been on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. A flurry of moves
today, which may lead you to think that the war is changing direction. It's exceptionally hard, frankly, to divine what the president's state of mind
often is over the course of this now eight, nine-day conflict.
[16:45:11]
But I do think it's fair to say that the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei presents an obstacle simply because President Trump has been against it. He
says he's not entirely sure how long this may indeed last. That is probably a less than subtle reference to Israel's pledge to kill the successor of
Ali Khamenei but we're in a point now where ultimately Iran has clearly chosen to do the thing that Trump asked them not to do, and Trump either
has to adapt or respond.
But there are clearly signs within the markets, within the region where I'm standing that this war is not necessarily doing great things for the global
economy, and therefore President Trump's role in it, Richard.
QUEST: Now, I wanted to -- I want to focus on that, because we were talking to Fred, and we focused much of our program on that phrase from the adviser
-- foreign advisor to the Supreme Leader in Iran that basically, this war comes to an end when the economic pressure is greatly put upon the U.S. and
Israel.
But the Israelis are attacking certain strategic oil How aware are they that, yes, they may want to do that, but they can't push to the point of
economic pain for everybody else. Or do they just blathering on regardless.
WALSH: That could potentially be some rationale that may be guiding Israel. But then have to also think some analysts perceive Israel's goal here as to
cripple Iran as much as possible for as long as humanly possible, and damaging their oil infrastructure, regardless of what it does to the global
oil market, takes Iran out of the financial gain, potentially for many decades.
That seems to be Israel's key goal here. And while they are obviously an ally of the United States, acting in concert with the United States, their
goals are, frankly different articulated publicly. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he wants democracy regime change. They will kill the
successor of Khamenei. Trump occasionally vacillates about what he wants, but ultimately, the White House's initial goals were destroying missiles
the Navy and preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon.
We sort of spiraled into other possible stuff, but they can always go back to that particular moment. The economic pressure was always going to come
to bear at some particular point, upon the United States, upon the Gulf, upon Iran, potentially as well. And I think that was always in the back of
minds of individuals when they heard President Trump talk about four or five weeks as duration of this that, frankly, other things will come to
bear faster.
QUEST: I'm grateful. Thank you for joining us late at night for you in Tel Aviv, thank you, sir.
Into CNN, five players, the Iranian women's football team have now been granted asylum in Australia, according to Australia's Home Minister. It
follows concerns spreading over their return to their home country. The women are currently safe with local police.
President Trump had publicly lobbied Australia to take the footballers in. Kristen Holmes is with me. He basically said, look, if you don't, I will.
Now, it looks like he doesn't have to. Of course, we are not sure what's going to happen to the rest of them.
Let's talk about the footballers first. But I do want to ask you at some point, what do you think he means by the war is very complete?
KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: OK, we'll start with the footballers, though.
QUEST: Yes, please do.
HOLMES: OK, so we don't have any real answers other than those five are now with the police. Now, of course, President Trump had offered asylum to
these Iranian women if Australia was not going to do so. It comes at the same time that President Trump had imposed a travel ban on Iran or anyone
from Iran, but he said that he would take them in if the Prime Minister didn't.
Then he said this. He said that after the five that there were more on their way to be with police so they could be granted asylum, but he also
noted that there was a number of team members who were going to go home. He said this was after he had his conversation with the prime minister. He
said that they feel they must go home because they are worried about the safety of their families, including threats to those family members if they
don't return.
So, we don't actually have those numbers of how it is split, but we do understand that there are going to be more who are going to be granted
asylum, who will be safe with police, but there are going to be at least a few that are going to go back to Iran.
QUEST: Right, now, let's get to very complete. The market reaction Kristen was, I mean, I've never seen anything quite like it. Within seconds of the
President saying CBS, the action was very complete, and then we sort of got a wobble over the he's going to take over the Strait of Hormuz. Is this
because the White House was spooked today when it went to 120 in the market?
HOLMES: Well, I mean, certainly something that President Trump pays attention to. I just want to note that as President Trump was saying this
to CBS, at the same time, his Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth was retweeting something that said the fight is just beginning.
[16:50:04]
So, clearly, they are not on the same page here when it comes to President Trump's remarks. Now, President Trump is very reactive when it comes to the
markets. When it comes to the price of oil, it's something that obviously we've seen this administration really try to tout the numbers when it comes
to the price of gas at the pump, they say that that's the most, the number one thing they've done for affordability.
So, obviously, talking about how those price we're going to raise would take away from that, especially given that we still see inflation, that
people are still struggling.
Now, all of this, again, happens with the midterms in the background. But I also think President Trump looks at this as his legacy. He looks at how the
economy is going to work, how or how the economy is going to look after his four years. He looks at the price of oil, all of that he believes are part
of his legacy and part of how people view him while he is in office. It's very, very important to him.
Remember, one of the number one things that Scott Bessent views his job as is keeping the market stable. That's why he has said things like, don't
fire Jerome Powell. It's not because he wants to back Jerome Powell. It's because he knows what that will do to the markets. They are all very hyper
aware and hypersensitive of this.
And today, what we saw was a crash out, and then President Trump, essentially changing course, or at least seeming to change course. Now we
will see him. He's going to be delivering remarks, and then he's going to be doing a press conference. These are two separate events. This will
obviously come up at this press conference what he meant by that, and if he's actually using this press conference as sort of a jumping off point to
start this rhetoric that the war is ending.
The thing, Richard, to keep in mind is that we have had a lot of questions about what it would take to actually end this war and American involvement
in it, and we haven't been getting clear answers because the objectives were really hard to quantify, so lot of questions.
QUEST: And you'll be watching and you'll help us interpret. We're seeing pictures of the president there. We'll see him later in Florida as well.
Thank you, Kristen, thank you.
It's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, the latest development in a standoff between the Pentagon and Anthropic.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Anthropic is now suing Trump administration for blacklisting the company. The Pentagon labeled the A.I. firm a supply chain risk after
failed contract talks, companies said and necessity is necessary to protect our business. The White House said that Donald Trump will never allow a
radical left woke company to dictate how the military operates.
[16:55:03]
Hadas is with us. Hadas Gold, they took a firm line Anthropic. A.I. sort of came in and tried to do something as well. But the reality is, the
government's not having Anthropic.
HADAS GOLD, CNN MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: No, the government declared Anthropic a supply chain risk this coming after negotiations with the Pentagon broke
down because Anthropic wanted their conduct with the Pentagon to adhere to two red lines that A.I. would not be used in autonomous weapons and the
A.I. would not be used in the mass surveillance of American citizens.
The Pentagon, they wanted to be able to use the A.I. tool for all lawful use, saying they can't be going to a private company to change, you know,
some guardrails in the middle of a war. Then they blacklisted the Pentagon, calling them a supply chain risk.
This is a designation that's never been used before for an American company. And Anthropic said that they were going to be filing this lawsuit
because they essentially had no other choice.
Now, the basis of this lawsuit is on a few different formats. They're saying, one, they believe they're being punished for their views on A.I.
They say that's a violation of their First Amendment rights. They says -- they say the supply chain risk designation is legally unsound and it could
not apply to an American firm.
Again, this designation has never been given to an American firm. It's usually reserved for firms that are associated with foreign adversaries.
There was a saying that President Trump, who said that all federal agencies had to stop using anthropomorphic products. They're saying he did not
actually have the authority to do all that and didn't follow appropriate procedures. They're also saying that they're seeking this immediate
injunction because their current and future contracts with private parties are all in doubt, and they say that could cost them hundreds of millions of
dollars.
The Pentagon has no comment. The White House, as you noted, essentially just saying that they will never allow a radical left, woke company to
jeopardize their national security. But Anthropic is seeking some pretty fast relief here.
QUEST: I'm grateful. Thank you very much. We'll talk more as that wends its way through the courts. We will have a profitable moment after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Tonight's profitable moment. I'm a liver puddle, and as you probably know, so The Beatles just runs in my blood through and through. I remember
them very well, which is why the Paul McCartney song, will you still need me? Will you still feed me when I'm 64? Was so difficult today.
Today, of course, was my birthday. 64 there's no easy way to say that number. When you write it down and you put it on a piece of paper, it looks
old. Yes, I know 64 is the new 40, or whatever that nonsense is that people talk about. But when an ache and pain and a lower bit of back and a bit of
lumbago and arthritis, well, you know what I'm talking about.
[17:00:07]
But the good news is that you and I are still here talking over business and economics every night and still getting excited by what's happening in
the business world. And as long as that continues, whether I'm 64 or plus and beyond, it's worth us staying together.
And that's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS for this Monday night. Yes, I remembered the day. I'm Richard Quest in London. I remembered that too. Whatever
you're up to in the hours ahead, I hope it's profitable. See you tomorrow.
END
