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CNN Live Event/Special

Polls Close Around U.S.

Aired November 06, 2002 - 01:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: It is 10:30 p.m. in the West. It's 1:30 a.m. here in the East, and we want to make another projection, and that is in the state of Maine, the winner in the governor's race, John Baldacci. And here's how it looks, you can see, he is with 48 percent, at least at this point. This is 80 percent of the vote that has come in. He has 48 percent to is it Peter Cianchette and the Green Party candidate.
So we have called Mr. Baldacci. And that is a pick up for the Democrats because Angus King, his predecessor, was an Independent.

And now, I think we want to take a look at how some of the women are doing. We had an unprecedented number of women running, this year, for governor around the country. And we're going to take a look at how some of them have done.

In Kansas, CNN had earlier predicted that Kathleen Sebelius would be the winner. One interesting thing you should know about her is her father, John Gilligan, was the governor, not of the state of Kansas, but of the state of Ohio.

Another woman candidate, Jennifer Granholm, in Michigan -- we've talked about this all night long -- defeating republican Dick Posthumus, and up and comer for the Democrats.

In Hawaii, this one is not decided, but we know the winner's going to be a woman, Mazie Hirono, running against Linda Lingle. The polls had shown Linda Lingle running ahead. We can't tell you anything at this point. We don't have numbers.

In the state of Arkansas, Jimmie Lou Fisher has lost her bid to defeat the incumbent, Mike Huckabee.

In Massachusetts, another loss for a woman, Shannon O'Brien. The State Treasurer has lost to Mitt Romney, the former head of the Winter Olympics. Temporarily lived in Utah, but came back to Massachusetts to get elected governor.

And another woman goes down to defeat. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, who was the Lieutenant Governor of the state of Maryland, losing to Congressman Bob Ehrlich.

And one other loss, and this one a bit of a surprise. Myrth York. This is her third try to be elected governor of Rhode Island. She's lost all three times. To Don Carcieri, this time.

And in Arizona, with 87 percent of the vote in, we're not making a projection, here. But Janet Napolitano is holding a slight lead over Matt Salmon, the Democrat. And the Independent way behind. A little bit of a surprise there because Janet Napolitano was thought to have a stronger lead than that, at this point.

And finally, in Alaska, I thought we had projected this as Murkowski, Frank Murkowski the winner. But it looks like, with more than half the vote in, Frank Murkowski 58 percent to Fran Ulmer, the woman candidate there.

So at this point, by our count, we had two women who have won, Kathleen Sebelius and Jennifer Granholm. Both have been projected winners. Three losses, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Shannon O'Brien and Myrth York.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN ANALYST: And Jimmie Lou Fisher.

WOODRUFF: And Jimmie Lou Fisher. That makes it four losses. We're still waiting for Hawaii. We know that's going to be a woman.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Right.

WOODRUFF: And we're still waiting for Alaska. That's not looking so good.

BROWN: I said earlier, I thought the best political job was to be a member of the Senate. I've changed my mind. I want to the former mayor of Maui. Right? One of the candidates in...

GREENFIELD: But you might not want to be governor of Hawaii with what's happened to their tourism industry the last year.

BROWN: No, I don't want that. Specifically, I want the former mayor of Maui job. Even the current mayor doesn't sound that bad.

The CROSSFIRE gang's been patiently waiting for one last go at each other. And you -- Tucker.

TUCKER CARLSON, CNN "CROSSFIRE" HOST: Well, thank you, Aaron. We've been sitting here talking about what the world's going to look like tomorrow. And since it is tomorrow, right now...

PAUL BEGALA, CNN "CROSSFIRE" HOST: On the East coast.

T. CARLSON: I think the real question is who leads the Democratic Party from here on out. You can write off Daschle and Gephardt and Al Gore and Gray Davis. And I really think that leaves Hillary Clinton. I truly do. I think that leaves her as the most credible, the most powerful person left in the Democratic Party, with the exception of you two, and I think it makes her the natural candidate in 2004.

BEGALA: When's the last time a Clinton on the ballot lost? About 25, 20 years ago, I guess. Bill Clinton lost his reelection when he was about 32. It'd be fine with me. I'd love to see it.

But let's not -- but my party, I think right now, they got to figure out why we went wrong. There's a huge debate between the combination swing of the party who thinks we should have compromised more with Bush on issues like homeland security.

I think that the Carville Begala wing of the party, that the confrontationist wing thinks that should maybe fight, maybe stand for something on the economy, maybe stand for something on foreign policy different from this president. Before we get to the personalities...

ROBERT NOVAK, CNN "CROSSFIRE" HOST: I think you got to get to the personalities, first. No, I really do. I think, in the first place, I like Dick Gephardt a lot. But I think there's a lot of feeling that maybe that is not -- he is going to run for president. He still wants to make one last try. I think he may just step aside and then, you'll have a huge fight between Steny Hoyer and Pallozi, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) Pallozi for who's going to be the leader. And that's whether you're going to have a kind of a mainstream liberal or a left wing San Franciscan. And I mean, that's the question.

The other thing, I'm sure that Daschle will continue on cause there's no real challenger in the Senate. But I think that Terry McAuliffe is a disaster for the Democratic Party. You know, somebody has been sending me, all year long, the talking points that Terry McAuliffe sends out everyday. Do you get those?

BEGALA: Actually, I don't, but I'm glad you do cause I know you follow them faithfully, Bob.

NOVAK: Seriously, Paul, it's -- you would laugh at them. It's absolutely a joke that that kind of nonsense is coming from the leader of one of our great parties.

JAMES CARVILLE, CNN CROSSFIRE HOST: I think the idea of who the chairman of the DNC is or something like that. I mean, all the stuff together. Look, this is the problem. We did well in the governors elections, tonight, because they were each a local election. We did not particularly well, but decently in the House. We lost a few seats because they tended to run...

NOVAK: Decently?

CARVILLE: You know what? Let me finish. We did terrible in the Senate because it got nationalized. The party has to ask itself, if we can't win a nationalized election, what can we do? I mean, we did -- certainly, we did much better in the House than we did in the Senate relative to the number of seats that were up for grab.

So it's not -- I think somehow or another -- I heard a lot of Democrats talk about this, well, we'll get this issue off the table. We'll get that issue off the table. And then, we'll do it on technical confidence, I think was the operative word, this year.

I think the Democrats need to look at what they're going to run on, what they're going to stand for, what they're going to tell the American people. I think it matters less if Terry is the party chair or if we have a new headquarters or anything like that. I don't think the Democrats need a new headquarters. I think they need a new message.

BEGALA: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) party...

NOVAK: Wait. Just a second. I've got to respond to that because the House of Representatives -- there were so few races because both parties that had this conspiracy, the gerrymander of the seats in the safe seats. And the Democrats did terribly, James. They lost almost -- you say -- wait -- can I talk while you're interrupting, please?

CARVILLE: Go ahead. Steal my lines (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

NOVAK: You say there's so few -- there's so many seats. There wasn't so many seats. There were less competitive House seats than there were Senate seats, so they did very, very poorly.

Now, the governorships, these had nothing to do with party politics. It's that when the economy goes down, the governors are in trouble because they have to either raise taxes or cut spending or both. And the new Democratic governors are going to be in trouble.

CARVILLE: You missed completely the point that I was trying -- I was trying to make a point that the party that can't win on a nationalized election is a party that's in trouble. If we are waiting to sort of pick off one government because the economy is bad or the budget deficit is bad in that particular situation. Is opposed to presenting the American people with a message, a core philosophy, a set of principles for which a party is for. I think that may entered it.

The idea that somehow or another, oh, if we get a new leader here, or we get a new building here or a new computer there, we can fix the problems. That all may be fine and good. I'm all for new buildings, new leaders and new computers, but what we did is something we don't have, right that, and that is a backbone.

T. CARLSON: What you're describing right there, and I think pretty articulately, is Barbara Streisand. I mean, no, and I' not just mocking you. Seriously, you're describing...

(CROSSTALK)

BEGALA: Let me make a serious point.

(CROSSTALK)

T. CARLSON: It is a serious point.

BEGALA: The party chairman's job is to deliver -- is to take care of money and mechanics, not message. Terry McAuliffe has not been part of the surrenderous wing of this party. He's been part of the confrontationist wing. I think he's done a great job. He's raised the money. He's put in place competent mechanics. But the message doesn't come from the party chairman. He's the guy who runs the apparatus, so I defend Terry to the death as somebody who's sort of self-proclaimed confrontationist. He's taken on Bush. (CROSSTALK)

CARVILLE: We're not sitting here, tonight, and saying the reason that we lost these Senate seats is because of Terry McAuliffe.

(CROSSTALK)

CARVILLE: It's the silliest thing I've ever head in my life.

T. CARLSON: I think you're misreading the point. And the point is -- the point, James, is not that Terry McAuliffe is running the Democratic Party and is therefore responsible for its fortunes, up or down. The point is that Terry McAuliffe's statements on television are so disconnected from reality that's in a window into the way the Democratic Party sees the world.

BEGALA: Is there any American who voted because of Terry McAuliffe statements on TV? Of course not.

T. CARLSON: You're totally missing it. When Terry McAuliffe gets up and says, we're going to ....

CARVILLE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) irrelevant. If Terry McAuliffe...

T. CARLSON: It's not irrelevant at all.

CARVILLE: If he spoke Chinese, it wouldn't matter. People don't vote against something like this on who the party chairman is. You just missed the whole point.

(CROSSTALK)

CARVILLE: That's the problem. We don't know not only who speaks for the party, what does the party say. It's Washington silliness that thinks that people care about the party chair.

(CROSSTALK)

NOVAK: See, the point is this, and this is really a serious point, here. It's just that you and Paul get on CROSSFIRE with me and Tucker, and you think that the way to make your point is to pound on George W. Bush. That's exactly what Terry McAuliffe does. Now does anybody in the country know who he is?

But yet, this is the din, this is the attack. See, the attack is not going to do it. You're going to have to come up with something like John F. Kennedy, who cut taxes and who was for a strong military, at the same time that he was for a compassionate Democratic Party. That's what you're going to have to do.

BEGALA: By the way, I cut you off when I shouldn't of when you mentioned Barbara Streisand. Let history record that the much maligned memo that she sent out, that you attacked her for repeatedly, Tucker, said Democrats should be tougher on Bush and the economy and tougher on him and Iraq. She was right, and a lot of Washington geniuses were wrong. T. CARLSON: I wasn't joking. I was actually being dead -- I mean, I mocked her for confusing Saddam Hussein with the president of Iran. But truly, my...

BEGALA: A mistake President Bush probably has made many times.

T. CARLSON: My point is (UNINTELLIGIBLE) and that is you are describing the kind of vigorous Democratic Party that she represents, one that engages the Republicans on the issues from the left. And you think she is...

BEGALA: Let me turn to this one quick topic, too. Bob mentioned before, about these governors races were more about the local economy. I mean, I think he's right. They're the canary in the coal mine. And we looked at the Republican trend in the Senate. It is real and President Bush and his party should be congratulated.

But on these governors races, we have 11 that CNN's already called. Eleven, tonight, that have switched parties about evenly. About half of them have gone from Democrat to Republican. About half have gone from Republican to Democrat.

And the incumbent parties are in trouble in Alaska, Oklahoma, California, Kansas, Wyoming and Wisconsin, which we haven't called yet. So that is the canary in the coal mine for the economic problems that President Bush may well face, if he doesn't turn things around.

NOVAK: See, the interesting thing is the Republicans were elected in Wyoming. I mean, Democrats were elected...

BEGALA: Maybe. I don't think the race has been called, but the Democrats...

NOVAK: But the Republican Senator Enzi got 72 percent of the vote. So it's not a party problem. It's a governor problem.

BEGALA: Right. And the governors are susceptible to those economic arguments quicker than the president who's not on the ballot yet. The president will be elected or reelected on the economy, and I think that Bush ought to do something to jump start the...

T. CARLSON: On this, we all agree. When it is a referendum on a local issues, the economy of a specific state, it's up for grabs. Either party can take it. But when it's nationalized, when it's a question of how do you feel about the president and somebody says, all midterms are about that question, the Republicans win, which makes it hard for the party focusing on slightly different...

(CROSSTALK)

CARVILLE: Slightly different points.

BEGALA: Not just local versus national. Those governors races turned on the economy, whether the governors wanted them to or not. The Republicans did a good job with the democratic accommodation as helping them of taking it off of the economic issues because too many Democrats surrendered on the tax cut. Again, I say, if they had fought on that, they could have made the Senate race about the economy, as well.

NOVAK: You think it's a good idea, now, to lay off of George W. Bush?

BEGALA: Personally, no. (UNINTELLIGIBLE). Of course not. No. What do you think, I'm a Republican? No. I could congratulate and his party for doing a good job, tonight, in the elections, but my party had to do a better job of taking him on in his (UNINTELLIGIBLE) policies. It's his economic policies that have sunk all these governors (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

T. CARLSON: Don't you think it's a pretty clear statement, though, from the voters that we actually sort of support and like the president?

BEGALA: There's a big difference between support and like. I don't think they support him, at all.

CARVILLE: No one made the case against fiscal irresponsibility. No one made the case against protectionism. No one made the case against the cuts in education and job training. No one made the case -- yes, the steel tariffs and lumber tariffs are protectionism, Bob. I don't know how to tell you this...

NOVAK: That's a democratic policy.

CARVILLE: ... case against the income (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

BEGALA: Wasn't Clinton's policy.

CARVILLE: No one made the case against incompetent people in positions of economic responsibility. People need to make the case. If you don't make the case, if you don't stand for something, then the voters are not going to...

(CROSSTALK)

NOVAK: You know what my definition of losers is?

CARVILLE: What is that?

NOVAK: People who learn nothing from the results of elections.

BEGALA: Yes, and the accomodationists lost tonight, and if they think that the answer is more accommodation, that's like the captain of the Titanic asking for more ice (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

(CROSSTALK)

T. CARLSON: Let me just say, tomorrow morning, when the Democrats begin rethinking their whole world view and (UNINTELLIGIBLE) each other, it's going to be a happy day.

CARVILLE: There'll be a lot of that going on. I promise you that.

BEGALA: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) on CROSSFIRE. They'll be able to do it on national television.

T. CARLSON: I literally can't wait -- Aaron Brown.

BROWN: Yes.

T. CARLSON: Back to you.

BROWN: Oh, OK. I thought you guys just could keep going for a while. Thank you very much.

T. CARLSON: We would.

BROWN: You probably are, even whether the cameras on you or not. Thank you.

We have a real vote projection we can make through the animation, as we say.

Candy Crowley in New York, at the Decision Desk -- Candy.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, another heartbreaker for the Democrats. They really thought they might be able to take this one. But in Colorado, CNN projects that Senator Wayne Allard has won another term. He defeats Democrat Tom Strickland.

BROWN: For a second time. Candy, thank you very much.

And now, I think we can say with absolute certainty -- we've been kind of on the edges of this for a while -- that of the races that are still left on the table, if the Democrats are going to keep control of the Senate, they have to sweep the table and they may. But it doesn't look great.

GREENFIELD: They have to win South Dakota and Missouri and Minnesota in order to have the December 7 runoff with Senator Landrieu of Louisiana save the Senate for the Democrats. If they lose any one of those three seats, South Dakota, Missouri or Minnesota, the Landrieu race becomes irrelevant, the Republicans control the Senate.

BROWN: And we would just add to that, that while there is not enough vote in any of those places to project the winner, the Democratic Party candidate is trailing in South Dakota by a whisker.

WOODRUFF: A nose.

BROWN: A whisker there. The Democratic candidate is trailing in Minnesota by a pretty -- a whisker of some size. And South -- I'm sorry.

GREENFIELD: In Missouri, it's...

BROWN: In Missouri, there's about a percent and a third difference, and we're just waiting for that vote to come in. It's a very tough task for the Democrats, and they don't have any margin left.

WOODRUFF: And I don't think there's any place watching any more closely or with maybe any bigger smiles than the ones they have at the White House, and our John King has been talking to the folks there -- John.

JOHN KING, SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Judy, we are told with some confidence that about 30 minutes ago, President Bush walked the dogs. It's not a great weather night, here in Washington. But walked the dogs in the dark on the White House grounds, and he has finally retired to bed. Mr. Bush up very late, tonight, and Mr. Bush is very happy, tonight.

White House spokesman, the Press Secretary Ari Fleisher, telling us just moments ago, and get used to hearing this over the next several days, that President Bush and the Republican Party made history, tonight.

We will hear directly from President Bush early tomorrow afternoon. We are told here at the White House, they want to wait for those final Senate races to come in. But Mr. Bush made more than 30 phone calls, tonight, to Republican winners around the country.

Near the end of those series of calls, he began to look to aides and say that he was more and more optimistic, confident that the Republican Party would be this country's governing party, controlling not only the president, but both chambers of Congress, as well. Mr. Fleisher, excuse me, would not use the term, mandate, but he said the president comes away from this election convinced that his activity, his campaigning, his help for the Republican Party made the difference in the close races. Look for this White House to claim an overwhelming mandate, beginning early tomorrow here at the White House -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: John, we can see why you would say that, and, you know, it's too early to say. We don't know, yet finally, what the outcome's going to be in the Senate, but you have to look pretty hard, at this point, to find any bright spots for the Democrats. I mean, I've even seen some calculations in the last few minutes that indicate, even when it comes to the governors, the Democrats had hoped to pick up a net gain of five or six governors, and that may not be materializing.

KING: All of us, nutty enough, crazy enough, dedicated enough might be the right term, to still be up at this hour, have been through this before. And you notice this in an election. Maybe you don't notice it two days out. But as you count the results, you begin to see a trend.

In 1994, we saw an epic wave. Maybe this one's not a wave cause there aren't as many races going the other way. But there is a clear sign that the late breaking race are going the Republican way. That's what they think here at this White House. They believe they will be successful in Minnesota even. They believe the Missouri race, late, will come in for them. They are reasonably confident about South Dakota. They even think, now, they may have a margin of one or two seats in the Senate, as opposed to just barely cracking 50 votes.

WOODRUFF: Last quick question. Are they keeping the press office open? Is there still somebody who's going to keep talking to you, John, in the next few hours, as we watch the last races come in?

KING: Mrs. Bush has finally won the night. We are about to kicked off the White House grounds because the president has gone to bed. We will keep in touch, if there is any other reaction given to the president. He has told people, if there's anything urgent, to let him know. But he, also, we are told, at 1:15, he spoke lastly to his top political adviser, Carl Rove said that he was happy enough. He as confident enough. He was going to call it a night.

WOODRUFF: So they're not waiting to find out what the exact numbers are where the Senate go. They're sounding like they think they know the answer to that question.

All right -- John.

Aaron, there you have it.

BROWN: I'm trying to figure out if I'm crazy enough, foolish enough or dedicated enough that I'm still up at this hour doing this. Those are the choices John gave us.

WOODRUFF: We'll choose dedicated.

BROWN: I'll buy that. We'll take a short break. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: It's coming up on 2:00 in the east, and our coverage still has a long way to go, this morning. Let me throw out, Jeff and Judy, one idea at the risk of being accused of raining on a parade.

The one advantage of not having control of the House, the Senate and the White House, it seems to me, is if things go wrong, there's somebody to blame.

GREENFIELD: There have been Republicans who have actually said, on the record, including Scott Reed, who is one of Bob Dole's managers, just that thought. That there's a margin, there's a safety valve, if one of the houses of Congress is controlled by the other guys. We saw the president work that, very well, with the Senate.

On the other hand, if you believe that you go into politics to get things done, and not to just have tactical advantages, having control of everything is probably a good idea.

WOODRUFF: This is a problem that George Bush wanted to have. I mean, he spent days and days out on the campaign trail, raised something like what, $170 million in fund raisers over the last few months. He and the First Lady and others. I mean, this is -- we're watching some pictures coming in.

BROWN: That's Norm Coleman.

WOODRUFF: Is that Norm Coleman?

BROWN: Yes, he's in the middle of that crowd of people.

WOODRUFF: But this is a -- I was just going to say that this is a president who wanted the problem of being held accountable and being held responsible and being the one to blame. He wants to have a whack at it.

GREENFIELD: His one problem is going to be that the Republican base, movement conservatives, are now going to say to him, you've got the power. Now, use it. Now, get the agenda done. And they may not want that agenda pushed quite as hard as the movement conservatives do.

BROWN: As we look there briefly at the numbers from Minnesota and Norm Coleman, who came into Minnesota politics as a Democratic Mayor of St. Paul, switched parties, won reelection, did a lot of things in St. Paul, including bringing the National Hockey League back to the twin cities. And if you're a Minnesotan, believe me, that is a huge deal. OK? That is a major deal, and he gets a lot of credit for that.

He has run a tough campaign, when Paul Wellstone was alive. And a smart campaign after the tragic death of Mr. Wellstone, Senator Wellstone. And he may be, he may be reaping the rewards of that, tonight. It's not clear, yet, but he does have a lead.

And he's entered the room with his supporters, and he will say, we assume, something similar to what his opponent, Walter Mondale said about an hour or so ago, which is we are cautiously optimistic. We like the signs. We hope, by the end of the count, it works out. But we are not yet ready to project Norm Coleman or anyone a winner in Minnesota, tonight, in the Senate race, at least.

WOODRUFF: Something like 36 percent of the vote was counted, the last board that we showed.

BROWN: Right.

WOODRUFF: On the bottom part of the screen.

GREENFIELD: But in case we haven't said it out loud, based on our balance of power, we can actually say, Republicans will, according to our numbers, take up Senate seats. They went into this race with 200 -- House seats. They went into this race with 223. Our balance of power shows them, now, with 225. So that goal has been met, and it is, even though Clinton did it in 98, for a Republican president in midterm, it is almost unprecedented.

WOODRUFF: Well, what we said -- is that Tom Davis was quoted the other day as saying, it's never happened before for a Republican president, so.

BROWN: Well, he can't say that anymore, it turns out. It has happened tonight.

WOODRUFF: That's right.

BROWN: The "CAPITAL GANG" gang is on board, too.

GREENFIELD: Oklahoma.

WOODRUFF: I know.

BROWN: They've got some thoughts. Mark, good morning.

MARK SHIELDS, CNN "CAPITAL GANG" HOST: Good morning, Aaron, and Bob Novak down in Atlanta, tell us what's the biggest surprise of the night to you, Bob.

NOVAK: Well, I don't know that he's really lost, but I would say that Steve Largent apparently losing in Oklahoma, if he ends up losing, would be the biggest surprise. If not, it's Roy Barnes losing the governorship in Georgia.

The other results in the House and the Senate were, if you remember Mark, pretty much what I predicted Saturday night.

SHIELDS: OK. Kate O'Beirne, what is your biggest surprise tonight?

KATE O'BEIRNE, CNN "THE CAPITAL GANG" HOST: I was surprised that the Republicans have, apparently, only lost one Senate seat. You know, the entire election season was how many seats are so tight. How many Republican seats are at risk. Months ago, even Maine and Oregon were being talked about. A single seat and only because Arkansas voters finally started caring about marital fidelity.

SHIELDS: Al Hunt.

AL HUNT, CNN "THE CAPITAL GANG" HOST: Well, I'm just thinking, Bob, the whole state of Georgia. I thought the Democrats were going to win the governorship, they're going to win the Senate race, and they're going to win three of those House seats. And now, it appears they're going to lose both the statewide seats and maybe two of the House seats.

SHIELDS: Amazing surprise. Margaret.

MARGARET CARLSON, CNN THE CAPITAL GANG HOST: I have to repeat Bob because I'm shocked that Steve Largent, a football hall of famer, from the Seattle Seahawks...

UNIDENTIFIED PARTICIPANT: Very good.

M. CARLSON: ... lost to Brad Henry. This was under the radar. We weren't even following it because we just didn't think the guy could lose.

SHIELDS: Absolutely. A big surprise that Oklahoma race. Democrats, if someone told me going in, the Democrats are going to lose their governorships in Massachusetts and Maryland, win the governorships in Kansas with Kathleen Sebelius, Pat Henry in Oklahoma, and Dave Freudenthal out in Wyoming, Bob, is clinging to a lead. A Democrat in Dick Cheney's backyard. That's a surprise.

Who is the big -- is there a big winner, tonight? Is there a big, you know, that comes out of this, as someone who's enhanced? Kate.

O'BEIRNE: Well, Mark, to say the obvious, George Bush, President George Bush is a very big winner, and I think it was a big win for the Bush family. Jeb Bush had a very big win in Florida. An excellent night for the Bush family and the broader Republican family.

SHIELDS: OK. I would say, just right at the outset, Tom Davis, a congressman from Virginia, chairman of the House Campaign Committee, had been predicted all the way along their congressman would pick up House seats. A lot of us thought he was kind of exaggerating, and he turned out to be right. Bob Novak, what was your -- who's your big winner of the night.

NOVAK: Apart from the president, I would say Carl Rove, his political aide was a big winner. I guarantee you, if the Democrats had done as badly -- if the Republicans had done as badly, Mark, as you had predicted, everybody would be blaming Carl Rove. So he should get some credit for a very aggressive forward strategy.

And the other big winner is the Republican state chairman of Georgia, much abused by the liberal press, Ralph Reed. I would say that Ralph Reed had a dream election in the state of Georgia.

SHIELDS: Boy, Bob, you'll get your phone calls returned tomorrow, both Rove and Reed. Go ahead...

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Aired November 6, 2002 - 01:30   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: It is 10:30 p.m. in the West. It's 1:30 a.m. here in the East, and we want to make another projection, and that is in the state of Maine, the winner in the governor's race, John Baldacci. And here's how it looks, you can see, he is with 48 percent, at least at this point. This is 80 percent of the vote that has come in. He has 48 percent to is it Peter Cianchette and the Green Party candidate.
So we have called Mr. Baldacci. And that is a pick up for the Democrats because Angus King, his predecessor, was an Independent.

And now, I think we want to take a look at how some of the women are doing. We had an unprecedented number of women running, this year, for governor around the country. And we're going to take a look at how some of them have done.

In Kansas, CNN had earlier predicted that Kathleen Sebelius would be the winner. One interesting thing you should know about her is her father, John Gilligan, was the governor, not of the state of Kansas, but of the state of Ohio.

Another woman candidate, Jennifer Granholm, in Michigan -- we've talked about this all night long -- defeating republican Dick Posthumus, and up and comer for the Democrats.

In Hawaii, this one is not decided, but we know the winner's going to be a woman, Mazie Hirono, running against Linda Lingle. The polls had shown Linda Lingle running ahead. We can't tell you anything at this point. We don't have numbers.

In the state of Arkansas, Jimmie Lou Fisher has lost her bid to defeat the incumbent, Mike Huckabee.

In Massachusetts, another loss for a woman, Shannon O'Brien. The State Treasurer has lost to Mitt Romney, the former head of the Winter Olympics. Temporarily lived in Utah, but came back to Massachusetts to get elected governor.

And another woman goes down to defeat. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, who was the Lieutenant Governor of the state of Maryland, losing to Congressman Bob Ehrlich.

And one other loss, and this one a bit of a surprise. Myrth York. This is her third try to be elected governor of Rhode Island. She's lost all three times. To Don Carcieri, this time.

And in Arizona, with 87 percent of the vote in, we're not making a projection, here. But Janet Napolitano is holding a slight lead over Matt Salmon, the Democrat. And the Independent way behind. A little bit of a surprise there because Janet Napolitano was thought to have a stronger lead than that, at this point.

And finally, in Alaska, I thought we had projected this as Murkowski, Frank Murkowski the winner. But it looks like, with more than half the vote in, Frank Murkowski 58 percent to Fran Ulmer, the woman candidate there.

So at this point, by our count, we had two women who have won, Kathleen Sebelius and Jennifer Granholm. Both have been projected winners. Three losses, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Shannon O'Brien and Myrth York.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN ANALYST: And Jimmie Lou Fisher.

WOODRUFF: And Jimmie Lou Fisher. That makes it four losses. We're still waiting for Hawaii. We know that's going to be a woman.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Right.

WOODRUFF: And we're still waiting for Alaska. That's not looking so good.

BROWN: I said earlier, I thought the best political job was to be a member of the Senate. I've changed my mind. I want to the former mayor of Maui. Right? One of the candidates in...

GREENFIELD: But you might not want to be governor of Hawaii with what's happened to their tourism industry the last year.

BROWN: No, I don't want that. Specifically, I want the former mayor of Maui job. Even the current mayor doesn't sound that bad.

The CROSSFIRE gang's been patiently waiting for one last go at each other. And you -- Tucker.

TUCKER CARLSON, CNN "CROSSFIRE" HOST: Well, thank you, Aaron. We've been sitting here talking about what the world's going to look like tomorrow. And since it is tomorrow, right now...

PAUL BEGALA, CNN "CROSSFIRE" HOST: On the East coast.

T. CARLSON: I think the real question is who leads the Democratic Party from here on out. You can write off Daschle and Gephardt and Al Gore and Gray Davis. And I really think that leaves Hillary Clinton. I truly do. I think that leaves her as the most credible, the most powerful person left in the Democratic Party, with the exception of you two, and I think it makes her the natural candidate in 2004.

BEGALA: When's the last time a Clinton on the ballot lost? About 25, 20 years ago, I guess. Bill Clinton lost his reelection when he was about 32. It'd be fine with me. I'd love to see it.

But let's not -- but my party, I think right now, they got to figure out why we went wrong. There's a huge debate between the combination swing of the party who thinks we should have compromised more with Bush on issues like homeland security.

I think that the Carville Begala wing of the party, that the confrontationist wing thinks that should maybe fight, maybe stand for something on the economy, maybe stand for something on foreign policy different from this president. Before we get to the personalities...

ROBERT NOVAK, CNN "CROSSFIRE" HOST: I think you got to get to the personalities, first. No, I really do. I think, in the first place, I like Dick Gephardt a lot. But I think there's a lot of feeling that maybe that is not -- he is going to run for president. He still wants to make one last try. I think he may just step aside and then, you'll have a huge fight between Steny Hoyer and Pallozi, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) Pallozi for who's going to be the leader. And that's whether you're going to have a kind of a mainstream liberal or a left wing San Franciscan. And I mean, that's the question.

The other thing, I'm sure that Daschle will continue on cause there's no real challenger in the Senate. But I think that Terry McAuliffe is a disaster for the Democratic Party. You know, somebody has been sending me, all year long, the talking points that Terry McAuliffe sends out everyday. Do you get those?

BEGALA: Actually, I don't, but I'm glad you do cause I know you follow them faithfully, Bob.

NOVAK: Seriously, Paul, it's -- you would laugh at them. It's absolutely a joke that that kind of nonsense is coming from the leader of one of our great parties.

JAMES CARVILLE, CNN CROSSFIRE HOST: I think the idea of who the chairman of the DNC is or something like that. I mean, all the stuff together. Look, this is the problem. We did well in the governors elections, tonight, because they were each a local election. We did not particularly well, but decently in the House. We lost a few seats because they tended to run...

NOVAK: Decently?

CARVILLE: You know what? Let me finish. We did terrible in the Senate because it got nationalized. The party has to ask itself, if we can't win a nationalized election, what can we do? I mean, we did -- certainly, we did much better in the House than we did in the Senate relative to the number of seats that were up for grab.

So it's not -- I think somehow or another -- I heard a lot of Democrats talk about this, well, we'll get this issue off the table. We'll get that issue off the table. And then, we'll do it on technical confidence, I think was the operative word, this year.

I think the Democrats need to look at what they're going to run on, what they're going to stand for, what they're going to tell the American people. I think it matters less if Terry is the party chair or if we have a new headquarters or anything like that. I don't think the Democrats need a new headquarters. I think they need a new message.

BEGALA: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) party...

NOVAK: Wait. Just a second. I've got to respond to that because the House of Representatives -- there were so few races because both parties that had this conspiracy, the gerrymander of the seats in the safe seats. And the Democrats did terribly, James. They lost almost -- you say -- wait -- can I talk while you're interrupting, please?

CARVILLE: Go ahead. Steal my lines (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

NOVAK: You say there's so few -- there's so many seats. There wasn't so many seats. There were less competitive House seats than there were Senate seats, so they did very, very poorly.

Now, the governorships, these had nothing to do with party politics. It's that when the economy goes down, the governors are in trouble because they have to either raise taxes or cut spending or both. And the new Democratic governors are going to be in trouble.

CARVILLE: You missed completely the point that I was trying -- I was trying to make a point that the party that can't win on a nationalized election is a party that's in trouble. If we are waiting to sort of pick off one government because the economy is bad or the budget deficit is bad in that particular situation. Is opposed to presenting the American people with a message, a core philosophy, a set of principles for which a party is for. I think that may entered it.

The idea that somehow or another, oh, if we get a new leader here, or we get a new building here or a new computer there, we can fix the problems. That all may be fine and good. I'm all for new buildings, new leaders and new computers, but what we did is something we don't have, right that, and that is a backbone.

T. CARLSON: What you're describing right there, and I think pretty articulately, is Barbara Streisand. I mean, no, and I' not just mocking you. Seriously, you're describing...

(CROSSTALK)

BEGALA: Let me make a serious point.

(CROSSTALK)

T. CARLSON: It is a serious point.

BEGALA: The party chairman's job is to deliver -- is to take care of money and mechanics, not message. Terry McAuliffe has not been part of the surrenderous wing of this party. He's been part of the confrontationist wing. I think he's done a great job. He's raised the money. He's put in place competent mechanics. But the message doesn't come from the party chairman. He's the guy who runs the apparatus, so I defend Terry to the death as somebody who's sort of self-proclaimed confrontationist. He's taken on Bush. (CROSSTALK)

CARVILLE: We're not sitting here, tonight, and saying the reason that we lost these Senate seats is because of Terry McAuliffe.

(CROSSTALK)

CARVILLE: It's the silliest thing I've ever head in my life.

T. CARLSON: I think you're misreading the point. And the point is -- the point, James, is not that Terry McAuliffe is running the Democratic Party and is therefore responsible for its fortunes, up or down. The point is that Terry McAuliffe's statements on television are so disconnected from reality that's in a window into the way the Democratic Party sees the world.

BEGALA: Is there any American who voted because of Terry McAuliffe statements on TV? Of course not.

T. CARLSON: You're totally missing it. When Terry McAuliffe gets up and says, we're going to ....

CARVILLE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) irrelevant. If Terry McAuliffe...

T. CARLSON: It's not irrelevant at all.

CARVILLE: If he spoke Chinese, it wouldn't matter. People don't vote against something like this on who the party chairman is. You just missed the whole point.

(CROSSTALK)

CARVILLE: That's the problem. We don't know not only who speaks for the party, what does the party say. It's Washington silliness that thinks that people care about the party chair.

(CROSSTALK)

NOVAK: See, the point is this, and this is really a serious point, here. It's just that you and Paul get on CROSSFIRE with me and Tucker, and you think that the way to make your point is to pound on George W. Bush. That's exactly what Terry McAuliffe does. Now does anybody in the country know who he is?

But yet, this is the din, this is the attack. See, the attack is not going to do it. You're going to have to come up with something like John F. Kennedy, who cut taxes and who was for a strong military, at the same time that he was for a compassionate Democratic Party. That's what you're going to have to do.

BEGALA: By the way, I cut you off when I shouldn't of when you mentioned Barbara Streisand. Let history record that the much maligned memo that she sent out, that you attacked her for repeatedly, Tucker, said Democrats should be tougher on Bush and the economy and tougher on him and Iraq. She was right, and a lot of Washington geniuses were wrong. T. CARLSON: I wasn't joking. I was actually being dead -- I mean, I mocked her for confusing Saddam Hussein with the president of Iran. But truly, my...

BEGALA: A mistake President Bush probably has made many times.

T. CARLSON: My point is (UNINTELLIGIBLE) and that is you are describing the kind of vigorous Democratic Party that she represents, one that engages the Republicans on the issues from the left. And you think she is...

BEGALA: Let me turn to this one quick topic, too. Bob mentioned before, about these governors races were more about the local economy. I mean, I think he's right. They're the canary in the coal mine. And we looked at the Republican trend in the Senate. It is real and President Bush and his party should be congratulated.

But on these governors races, we have 11 that CNN's already called. Eleven, tonight, that have switched parties about evenly. About half of them have gone from Democrat to Republican. About half have gone from Republican to Democrat.

And the incumbent parties are in trouble in Alaska, Oklahoma, California, Kansas, Wyoming and Wisconsin, which we haven't called yet. So that is the canary in the coal mine for the economic problems that President Bush may well face, if he doesn't turn things around.

NOVAK: See, the interesting thing is the Republicans were elected in Wyoming. I mean, Democrats were elected...

BEGALA: Maybe. I don't think the race has been called, but the Democrats...

NOVAK: But the Republican Senator Enzi got 72 percent of the vote. So it's not a party problem. It's a governor problem.

BEGALA: Right. And the governors are susceptible to those economic arguments quicker than the president who's not on the ballot yet. The president will be elected or reelected on the economy, and I think that Bush ought to do something to jump start the...

T. CARLSON: On this, we all agree. When it is a referendum on a local issues, the economy of a specific state, it's up for grabs. Either party can take it. But when it's nationalized, when it's a question of how do you feel about the president and somebody says, all midterms are about that question, the Republicans win, which makes it hard for the party focusing on slightly different...

(CROSSTALK)

CARVILLE: Slightly different points.

BEGALA: Not just local versus national. Those governors races turned on the economy, whether the governors wanted them to or not. The Republicans did a good job with the democratic accommodation as helping them of taking it off of the economic issues because too many Democrats surrendered on the tax cut. Again, I say, if they had fought on that, they could have made the Senate race about the economy, as well.

NOVAK: You think it's a good idea, now, to lay off of George W. Bush?

BEGALA: Personally, no. (UNINTELLIGIBLE). Of course not. No. What do you think, I'm a Republican? No. I could congratulate and his party for doing a good job, tonight, in the elections, but my party had to do a better job of taking him on in his (UNINTELLIGIBLE) policies. It's his economic policies that have sunk all these governors (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

T. CARLSON: Don't you think it's a pretty clear statement, though, from the voters that we actually sort of support and like the president?

BEGALA: There's a big difference between support and like. I don't think they support him, at all.

CARVILLE: No one made the case against fiscal irresponsibility. No one made the case against protectionism. No one made the case against the cuts in education and job training. No one made the case -- yes, the steel tariffs and lumber tariffs are protectionism, Bob. I don't know how to tell you this...

NOVAK: That's a democratic policy.

CARVILLE: ... case against the income (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

BEGALA: Wasn't Clinton's policy.

CARVILLE: No one made the case against incompetent people in positions of economic responsibility. People need to make the case. If you don't make the case, if you don't stand for something, then the voters are not going to...

(CROSSTALK)

NOVAK: You know what my definition of losers is?

CARVILLE: What is that?

NOVAK: People who learn nothing from the results of elections.

BEGALA: Yes, and the accomodationists lost tonight, and if they think that the answer is more accommodation, that's like the captain of the Titanic asking for more ice (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

(CROSSTALK)

T. CARLSON: Let me just say, tomorrow morning, when the Democrats begin rethinking their whole world view and (UNINTELLIGIBLE) each other, it's going to be a happy day.

CARVILLE: There'll be a lot of that going on. I promise you that.

BEGALA: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) on CROSSFIRE. They'll be able to do it on national television.

T. CARLSON: I literally can't wait -- Aaron Brown.

BROWN: Yes.

T. CARLSON: Back to you.

BROWN: Oh, OK. I thought you guys just could keep going for a while. Thank you very much.

T. CARLSON: We would.

BROWN: You probably are, even whether the cameras on you or not. Thank you.

We have a real vote projection we can make through the animation, as we say.

Candy Crowley in New York, at the Decision Desk -- Candy.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, another heartbreaker for the Democrats. They really thought they might be able to take this one. But in Colorado, CNN projects that Senator Wayne Allard has won another term. He defeats Democrat Tom Strickland.

BROWN: For a second time. Candy, thank you very much.

And now, I think we can say with absolute certainty -- we've been kind of on the edges of this for a while -- that of the races that are still left on the table, if the Democrats are going to keep control of the Senate, they have to sweep the table and they may. But it doesn't look great.

GREENFIELD: They have to win South Dakota and Missouri and Minnesota in order to have the December 7 runoff with Senator Landrieu of Louisiana save the Senate for the Democrats. If they lose any one of those three seats, South Dakota, Missouri or Minnesota, the Landrieu race becomes irrelevant, the Republicans control the Senate.

BROWN: And we would just add to that, that while there is not enough vote in any of those places to project the winner, the Democratic Party candidate is trailing in South Dakota by a whisker.

WOODRUFF: A nose.

BROWN: A whisker there. The Democratic candidate is trailing in Minnesota by a pretty -- a whisker of some size. And South -- I'm sorry.

GREENFIELD: In Missouri, it's...

BROWN: In Missouri, there's about a percent and a third difference, and we're just waiting for that vote to come in. It's a very tough task for the Democrats, and they don't have any margin left.

WOODRUFF: And I don't think there's any place watching any more closely or with maybe any bigger smiles than the ones they have at the White House, and our John King has been talking to the folks there -- John.

JOHN KING, SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Judy, we are told with some confidence that about 30 minutes ago, President Bush walked the dogs. It's not a great weather night, here in Washington. But walked the dogs in the dark on the White House grounds, and he has finally retired to bed. Mr. Bush up very late, tonight, and Mr. Bush is very happy, tonight.

White House spokesman, the Press Secretary Ari Fleisher, telling us just moments ago, and get used to hearing this over the next several days, that President Bush and the Republican Party made history, tonight.

We will hear directly from President Bush early tomorrow afternoon. We are told here at the White House, they want to wait for those final Senate races to come in. But Mr. Bush made more than 30 phone calls, tonight, to Republican winners around the country.

Near the end of those series of calls, he began to look to aides and say that he was more and more optimistic, confident that the Republican Party would be this country's governing party, controlling not only the president, but both chambers of Congress, as well. Mr. Fleisher, excuse me, would not use the term, mandate, but he said the president comes away from this election convinced that his activity, his campaigning, his help for the Republican Party made the difference in the close races. Look for this White House to claim an overwhelming mandate, beginning early tomorrow here at the White House -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: John, we can see why you would say that, and, you know, it's too early to say. We don't know, yet finally, what the outcome's going to be in the Senate, but you have to look pretty hard, at this point, to find any bright spots for the Democrats. I mean, I've even seen some calculations in the last few minutes that indicate, even when it comes to the governors, the Democrats had hoped to pick up a net gain of five or six governors, and that may not be materializing.

KING: All of us, nutty enough, crazy enough, dedicated enough might be the right term, to still be up at this hour, have been through this before. And you notice this in an election. Maybe you don't notice it two days out. But as you count the results, you begin to see a trend.

In 1994, we saw an epic wave. Maybe this one's not a wave cause there aren't as many races going the other way. But there is a clear sign that the late breaking race are going the Republican way. That's what they think here at this White House. They believe they will be successful in Minnesota even. They believe the Missouri race, late, will come in for them. They are reasonably confident about South Dakota. They even think, now, they may have a margin of one or two seats in the Senate, as opposed to just barely cracking 50 votes.

WOODRUFF: Last quick question. Are they keeping the press office open? Is there still somebody who's going to keep talking to you, John, in the next few hours, as we watch the last races come in?

KING: Mrs. Bush has finally won the night. We are about to kicked off the White House grounds because the president has gone to bed. We will keep in touch, if there is any other reaction given to the president. He has told people, if there's anything urgent, to let him know. But he, also, we are told, at 1:15, he spoke lastly to his top political adviser, Carl Rove said that he was happy enough. He as confident enough. He was going to call it a night.

WOODRUFF: So they're not waiting to find out what the exact numbers are where the Senate go. They're sounding like they think they know the answer to that question.

All right -- John.

Aaron, there you have it.

BROWN: I'm trying to figure out if I'm crazy enough, foolish enough or dedicated enough that I'm still up at this hour doing this. Those are the choices John gave us.

WOODRUFF: We'll choose dedicated.

BROWN: I'll buy that. We'll take a short break. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: It's coming up on 2:00 in the east, and our coverage still has a long way to go, this morning. Let me throw out, Jeff and Judy, one idea at the risk of being accused of raining on a parade.

The one advantage of not having control of the House, the Senate and the White House, it seems to me, is if things go wrong, there's somebody to blame.

GREENFIELD: There have been Republicans who have actually said, on the record, including Scott Reed, who is one of Bob Dole's managers, just that thought. That there's a margin, there's a safety valve, if one of the houses of Congress is controlled by the other guys. We saw the president work that, very well, with the Senate.

On the other hand, if you believe that you go into politics to get things done, and not to just have tactical advantages, having control of everything is probably a good idea.

WOODRUFF: This is a problem that George Bush wanted to have. I mean, he spent days and days out on the campaign trail, raised something like what, $170 million in fund raisers over the last few months. He and the First Lady and others. I mean, this is -- we're watching some pictures coming in.

BROWN: That's Norm Coleman.

WOODRUFF: Is that Norm Coleman?

BROWN: Yes, he's in the middle of that crowd of people.

WOODRUFF: But this is a -- I was just going to say that this is a president who wanted the problem of being held accountable and being held responsible and being the one to blame. He wants to have a whack at it.

GREENFIELD: His one problem is going to be that the Republican base, movement conservatives, are now going to say to him, you've got the power. Now, use it. Now, get the agenda done. And they may not want that agenda pushed quite as hard as the movement conservatives do.

BROWN: As we look there briefly at the numbers from Minnesota and Norm Coleman, who came into Minnesota politics as a Democratic Mayor of St. Paul, switched parties, won reelection, did a lot of things in St. Paul, including bringing the National Hockey League back to the twin cities. And if you're a Minnesotan, believe me, that is a huge deal. OK? That is a major deal, and he gets a lot of credit for that.

He has run a tough campaign, when Paul Wellstone was alive. And a smart campaign after the tragic death of Mr. Wellstone, Senator Wellstone. And he may be, he may be reaping the rewards of that, tonight. It's not clear, yet, but he does have a lead.

And he's entered the room with his supporters, and he will say, we assume, something similar to what his opponent, Walter Mondale said about an hour or so ago, which is we are cautiously optimistic. We like the signs. We hope, by the end of the count, it works out. But we are not yet ready to project Norm Coleman or anyone a winner in Minnesota, tonight, in the Senate race, at least.

WOODRUFF: Something like 36 percent of the vote was counted, the last board that we showed.

BROWN: Right.

WOODRUFF: On the bottom part of the screen.

GREENFIELD: But in case we haven't said it out loud, based on our balance of power, we can actually say, Republicans will, according to our numbers, take up Senate seats. They went into this race with 200 -- House seats. They went into this race with 223. Our balance of power shows them, now, with 225. So that goal has been met, and it is, even though Clinton did it in 98, for a Republican president in midterm, it is almost unprecedented.

WOODRUFF: Well, what we said -- is that Tom Davis was quoted the other day as saying, it's never happened before for a Republican president, so.

BROWN: Well, he can't say that anymore, it turns out. It has happened tonight.

WOODRUFF: That's right.

BROWN: The "CAPITAL GANG" gang is on board, too.

GREENFIELD: Oklahoma.

WOODRUFF: I know.

BROWN: They've got some thoughts. Mark, good morning.

MARK SHIELDS, CNN "CAPITAL GANG" HOST: Good morning, Aaron, and Bob Novak down in Atlanta, tell us what's the biggest surprise of the night to you, Bob.

NOVAK: Well, I don't know that he's really lost, but I would say that Steve Largent apparently losing in Oklahoma, if he ends up losing, would be the biggest surprise. If not, it's Roy Barnes losing the governorship in Georgia.

The other results in the House and the Senate were, if you remember Mark, pretty much what I predicted Saturday night.

SHIELDS: OK. Kate O'Beirne, what is your biggest surprise tonight?

KATE O'BEIRNE, CNN "THE CAPITAL GANG" HOST: I was surprised that the Republicans have, apparently, only lost one Senate seat. You know, the entire election season was how many seats are so tight. How many Republican seats are at risk. Months ago, even Maine and Oregon were being talked about. A single seat and only because Arkansas voters finally started caring about marital fidelity.

SHIELDS: Al Hunt.

AL HUNT, CNN "THE CAPITAL GANG" HOST: Well, I'm just thinking, Bob, the whole state of Georgia. I thought the Democrats were going to win the governorship, they're going to win the Senate race, and they're going to win three of those House seats. And now, it appears they're going to lose both the statewide seats and maybe two of the House seats.

SHIELDS: Amazing surprise. Margaret.

MARGARET CARLSON, CNN THE CAPITAL GANG HOST: I have to repeat Bob because I'm shocked that Steve Largent, a football hall of famer, from the Seattle Seahawks...

UNIDENTIFIED PARTICIPANT: Very good.

M. CARLSON: ... lost to Brad Henry. This was under the radar. We weren't even following it because we just didn't think the guy could lose.

SHIELDS: Absolutely. A big surprise that Oklahoma race. Democrats, if someone told me going in, the Democrats are going to lose their governorships in Massachusetts and Maryland, win the governorships in Kansas with Kathleen Sebelius, Pat Henry in Oklahoma, and Dave Freudenthal out in Wyoming, Bob, is clinging to a lead. A Democrat in Dick Cheney's backyard. That's a surprise.

Who is the big -- is there a big winner, tonight? Is there a big, you know, that comes out of this, as someone who's enhanced? Kate.

O'BEIRNE: Well, Mark, to say the obvious, George Bush, President George Bush is a very big winner, and I think it was a big win for the Bush family. Jeb Bush had a very big win in Florida. An excellent night for the Bush family and the broader Republican family.

SHIELDS: OK. I would say, just right at the outset, Tom Davis, a congressman from Virginia, chairman of the House Campaign Committee, had been predicted all the way along their congressman would pick up House seats. A lot of us thought he was kind of exaggerating, and he turned out to be right. Bob Novak, what was your -- who's your big winner of the night.

NOVAK: Apart from the president, I would say Carl Rove, his political aide was a big winner. I guarantee you, if the Democrats had done as badly -- if the Republicans had done as badly, Mark, as you had predicted, everybody would be blaming Carl Rove. So he should get some credit for a very aggressive forward strategy.

And the other big winner is the Republican state chairman of Georgia, much abused by the liberal press, Ralph Reed. I would say that Ralph Reed had a dream election in the state of Georgia.

SHIELDS: Boy, Bob, you'll get your phone calls returned tomorrow, both Rove and Reed. Go ahead...

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