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CNN Live Event/Special
Minutes Away From Polls Closing In 15 States; Hundreds Of Voters Still In Line In Arizona; Minutes Away From Polls Closing In Wisconsin. Aired 8-9p ET
Aired November 08, 2022 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You'd rather be ahead than behind, but we're waiting.
You see the middle part here. That's gray, not filled in. That is Trump country in Ohio.
Jake, we will watch the race as we go and we'll get more votes as we move through the hour.
JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: All right, John King.
We are just moments away from the biggest round of poll closings this evening, including that critical Senate contest in the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania that could go a long way toward deciding control of the US Senate.
As of right now, CNN is projecting that Senator Marco, the Republican from Florida will be reelected, defeating Congresswoman Val Demings.
In Alabama, CNN is projecting that Katie Britt will win her Senate seat, defeating her opponent. She is a former staffer for the retiring Republican Dick Shelby in that Alabama Senate seat, so that's a hold for Republicans.
In Oklahoma, CNN is projecting that incumbent Senator James Lankford will win in the Special Election in Oklahoma. Well, CNN is projecting that Markwayne Mullin will be elected, defeating Kendra Horn.
And then in Kentucky, CNN is projecting that incumbent Republican Senator Rand Paul will be reelected.
The big Senate race in Pennsylvania, CNN is declaring to be too early to call in the big Senate race that's between Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman and TV's Dr. Mehmet Oz, too early to call as of right now.
And in New Hampshire, a competitive race between incumbent Democratic senator Maggie Hassan against retired General Don Bolduc again, too early to call.
Let's look at the map in general right now. Right now, we have no projection in Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, and then as I said, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Too early to call right now.
The overall balance of power in the US Senate, Democrats have 36 of the Senate seats. Republicans have 35 Senate seats. There are 29 seats remaining. That's what the rest of the night is about.
Remember, Republicans only need to pick up one net seat from the Democrats in order to regain control of the Senate, but we have Governors races for you as well and Boris Sanchez has those.
BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN HOST: Jake, we have two projections to bring you from the south including a major, major win for Republicans in the State of Florida. Governor Ron DeSantis, winning reelection by a considerable margin.
Right now, DeSantis is up nearly 16 percentage points. That's notable because Donald Trump won the State of Florida in 2020 by about three and a half points. DeSantis of course widely speculated that he may run for President. Trump certainly thinks so with some of his recent attacks on the Florida Governor who earns a return trip to the Governor's Mansion in the Sunshine State.
We also have a projection to bring you from ruby red, Alabama, a State that Donald Trump won, earning about 60 percent of the vote in 2020. There, incumbent Republican Kay Ivey, a staunch Trump supporter, she defeats rehabilitative therapist, Yolanda Flowers to win another four years in Alabama.
We also have a key race alert to bring you now from the Peach State in Georgia. Right now, Democratic activist Stacey Abrams 44, it just changed 38,000 votes ahead of incumbent Republican, Brian Kemp. The lead thinning there with the last update, still only 31 percent of the vote in in Georgia. We will see where that winds up as the night moves along.
Let's take a step back and look at the big picture.
States where polls have closed, but where it is too early for CNN to make a projection. We're talking about Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, as well as Rhode Island and the Volunteer State of Tennessee.
Let's turn it over now to Kasie Hunt, who has some updates for us from Senate races -- Kasie.
KASIE HUNT, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Yes, and Boris, let's start in Georgia. You just gave us an update on the Governor's race there. Let's compare it to where things stand in the Senate race.
Raphael Warnock up at 54.5 percent to Herschel Walker's 43.9 percent. So that spread between where the Republican Governor Kemp is at 48.2 percent right now has widened. Walker is just at 43.9 percent. That has to be giving some of the Democrats I've been talking to you throughout the night a little bit of relief.
We've got though a third of the vote in here. We do, of course, expect this to be one of the tightest on the map.
Let's take a look at North Carolina, where the Democrat Cheri Beasley has an early lead over Republican, Ted Budd. Remember, this is a retiring Republican Senator Richard Burr's seat, so a Democratic win here would represent a pickup for them, although we do expect this race to tighten through the evening. We have about 46 percent of the vote in in North Carolina right now.
Now, let's go check in on Ohio where the Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan is out to an early lead at 58.1 percent, the Republican JD Vance is 41.8 percent. With a spread that wide, we really do have to ask where are those votes are coming from, we've only got about 20 percent of the vote in in Ohio right now.
And let's also check in on New Hampshire where Maggie Hassan is at 64.1 percent to the Republican, Don Bolduc's 35.4 percent. She is about 13,000 votes ahead, so that tells you where we are in the vote count. We're not very far in, we are at eight percent.
But you'd rather be Maggie Hassan at this hour than Don Bolduc -- Jake.
TAPPER: All right, Kasie, thanks so much. Appreciate it.
John King, getting us up to speed on the Senate right now. Where are we? Because we have races -- we have votes coming in, in at least three competitive races -- New Hampshire, and Georgia, and perhaps North Carolina.
KING: All right, so Georgia and New Hampshire would be holds, Democratic incumbents right now. I'll get into the Georgia vote complications in a minute.
Pennsylvania, the Democrat, we have a very, very early results leading, but we've got a long way to go here.
TAPPER: This is all from Pittsburgh.
KING: Right. It's all from Pittsburgh, Allegheny County, heavy Democratic area, early vote. So, we would just step away from that. But again, so if you're watching at home, and you're seeing the Senate map, you know, Democrats very much want to pick up that seat currently held by a Republican. Democrats want to pick up Ohio, currently held by Republican and North Carolina currently held by Republicans.
So you look at the map, and you think, wow, look at that. I just want to go back to --
TAPPER: It is very early. KING: The 2020 presidential election where at this time of night, Joe Biden was leading in Ohio and Tim Ryan is leading now. This is overwhelmingly early vote, overwhelmingly early vote.
So you see it, every vote counts, and so with the Democrats, the early vote, I say, I don't mean to be dismissive. If you're the Democrat, you need to run it up in the early vote and build that margin for when the Election Day vote comes in, especially in these small rural counties that tend to be overwhelmingly Republican.
So I'm not being dismissive of it, but I just -- for the context, we have a lot of votes to come in.
This has tightened up a little tiny bit. But again, this is early vote here. But again, Cheri Beasley --
TAPPER: Ran a great race.
KING: Watching the map to see if we get surprised, right? Keep an open mind about things. So then you come down to Georgia. This is a landmark Senate race right now.
KING: Senator Warnock at the moment, 10 points ahead in this race.
I'm going to point you to this number. It doesn't seem like it matters now. Georgia law, 50 percent or else a runoff in December. So you need 50 percent plus one vote, if you will. Warnock is above that right now, but we're only about a third of the vote counted here.
Watch the libertarian numbers we get later into the night. Is it big enough to pull the two leading candidates under 50 percent? We'll have to watch. That's one of the calculations at the moment. Senator Warnock is above 50.
I just want to check over the Governor's race because we're watching this ticket splitting dynamic all night long. So, the Democrat leading, it is early. This is predominantly early vote as David Chalian explained to us earlier.
But Raphael Warnock at 54.4 percent, 768,000 votes, you flip to the Governor's race --
TAPPER: And look at that.
KING: You've got 43,000 votes, rough math. Stacey Abrams is ahead, but 43,000 fewer votes than the Democratic candidate for Senate and Brian Kemp, the Republican candidate for Governor, that gap has been closing.
TAPPER: So just from -- one of the reasons that we're looking about this is because the Governor's race, even though we are 35 percent in, Stacey Abrams is in the lead, it is regarded as much less competitive, it's much more likely we believe that Brian Kemp will win. Whereas the Senate race is very competitive, and we really don't have any idea who's going to win that.
Brian Kemp has 695,000 votes. Herschel Walker at the same time that Herschel Walker has 614,000.
TAPPER: So that means that there are --
KING: Twenty, yes.
TAPPER: Six hundred -- so twenty thousand --
KING: It is moving as you speak a little bit, so you see it filling in, but you have the rough gap correct.
TAPPER: It does seem the conclusion is inevitable that there are people who are voting for Brian Kemp, the Republican Governor, and then are crossing the aisle or maybe they were already there and voting for Raphael Warnock, the Democratic senator, which is an interesting state of play, and also gives you an idea of the relative strength of Raphael Warnock.
It doesn't mean he is going to win, but it does mean he is doing what he needs to do in that regard.
KING: And the place you will see that most predominantly is in the suburbs around Atlanta, which have become more Democratic in recent years. This is why Joe Biden carried the State. But if you look here, this is Cobb County. It's the third largest, a little over seven percent of the State population. Right?
So you see Senator Warnock running at 59 percent.
TAPPER: Fifty-nine, thirty-eight.
KING: Herschel Walker at 39, if you round that up.
TAPPER: This is Cobb.
KING: Then you look at the governor's race. You look at the Governor's race and Stacey Abrams is at 55, right? She's down. She is underperforming Senator Warnock.
KING: And there you have Brian Kemp --
KING: Who is over performing Herschel Walker or Herschel Walker is underperforming. He's the incumbent Governor, so you should use him as the standard. Herschel Walker is underperforming the incumbent Governor in the suburbs and again, Republicans don't have to win the suburbs, they need to narrow the Democrats' margins.
TAPPER: So can I can ask -- can I see how Joe Biden did in Cobb County in 2020?
KING: Oh, sure. Joe Biden, Cobb County.
TAPPER: Joe Biden.
KING: That's the Senate race. Hold on. We've got to come to the presidential race now.
TAPPER: He did 56.
TAPPER: So this is another interesting comparison. And the reason I say this is because Joe Biden won Georgia very narrowly, 11,000-plus votes.
Joe Biden had 56 percent of the vote in Cobb County. Raphael Warnock has 59 percent of the vote in Cobb County. So Raphael Warnock is overperforming, at least as of right now, again just a snapshot, overperforming what Joe Biden did and Joe Biden won. So that is an interesting -- another interesting comparison.
KING: It is. I just want to add one little cautionary note to that though, as we come through.
TAPPER: Well, it's all early.
TAPPER: That is the other thing. All of this is early, we're just trying to read the tea leaves.
KING: Right. So here we have a sense of the outstanding vote, right, where we are still waiting for votes. And you see the size of the circles, right? The size of the circles is the biggest percentage of outstanding vote. If it's blue, that means the Democrat is leading in that area.
You see the circles down here, that means we are outstanding vote. It's larger over here. That means the Republican is leading in that area. And so you come right in here. You come in to Central Atlanta. You come in here, there's Cobb County, right? So we've still got a sizable percentage of the vote out.
But, Jake is making the important point about the fight for the margins in the suburbs. It is unlikely the Republicans will carry Cobb County. The question is, can you be competitive enough in Cobb County? Can you be competitive enough in Atlanta and the suburbs around it? That's Fulton County, and you come over here to Gwinnett County, and you come down here, where we have no votes yet. See the gray? That means we have no vote yet in DeKalb County.
So, that's the whole competition. The Democratic base is here. The suburbs decide statewide races. There are other suburbs as well, as you pull out, you can come down around Columbus, you can go up here around Augusta, over here around Savannah. You see again, this is a Democrat leading here in Chatham County, which is Savannah.
But we've still got a lot of the vote out there. They say about 49 percent. Again, you see, let's just test it again. Over here in this part of the State, a very different part of the State over here on the seacoast, Senator Warnock at 66 percent, Herschel Walker at 33 percent.
You take a peek here at the Governor's race again, Stacey Abrams, about four points, a little shy of that below -- percentage points below. She is underperforming Senator Warnock. And you look at Governor Kemp at 37 percent right there, you come back to the Senate race, Herschel Walker just shy of five points underperforming the Republican Governor.
So what you're looking for here is ticket splitting, in the sense. We saw it in Ohio, we've already projected Mike DeWine, the Republican Governor winning. Does he help JD Vance? There is a lot of ticket splitting that helps Tim Ryan. We're going to watch that play out in a number of States as we come out.
Let me turn this off now and just come back to what we're seeing live in the field in the race. Senator Warnock is ahead, but we're at 36 percent. Very important to note, early in the night here, we have to keep counting.
Let's come out and just take a quick look at some of the other Senate races. And again, let's check in Ohio again, just to see the percentage, right? This is a state where Tim Ryan has run a very competitive race. He is not going to win Ohio with fixed 57 percent of the vote, even if he holds that lead and wins, it is just too competitive a State. That tells you disproportionately, early vote that we're looking at. We're waiting for Election Day votes, only 23 percent reporting there. One of the key races.
Again, let's just check in to see in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, a few more votes in, again coming in, in Democratic areas. The first votes came in in Allegheny County. Remember, Braddock, Pennsylvania where John Fetterman was the Mayor is right out in this area, 84 percent right there, but a long way to go, Jake, in your home state, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
TAPPER: Thanks, John King.
And we have some projections for you now. Three projections for Republicans running for the House of Representatives.
In Florida, Trump-endorsed Army veteran Cory Mills, CNN is projecting has won his seat representing Seminole County; Republican Air Force veteran Anna Paulina Luna, CNN is projecting his one a red leaning district that includes St. Petersburg. She formerly worked at Turning Point USA, a pro-Trump youth organization. In Florida, Republican, Laurel Lee is the winner in a newly drawn Tampa area district. She is a former Florida Secretary of State. Let's look at the balance of power now in the House of Representatives, 19 Democrats have been elected, 45 Republicans including three pickups, there are still 371 seats remaining. Needing to control of course is 218.
What's the state of play in the 83 competitive US House seats that we've isolated? Well, Republicans need to win 27 of them. That's down from 30, so they are on their way. Democrats need to win 53 of those competitive seats. That's the same number we had before.
So we do have right now, Republicans having some momentum. It is very early, I don't want anyone to draw any conclusions. But these are three Republican projected wins in the House of Representatives. And so, if you're sitting at the National Republican Congressional Committee, you're thinking, this is what we need to do.
KING: We're doing what we need to do and you're winning in the districts where they are competitive, but districts that are competitive, but lean a little bit Republican, right? That's the challenge. Is there anything Democrats can do to make inroads in a Republican area in a year when you know, we talked about the Luria district, the Spanberger District of Virginia, Republicans are making inroads in Democratic areas. So the only way to counter that is to take some from them, if you will.
So you just talked about the district here, the Anna Luna district that we've now projected, right? This is a district that Donald Trump carried, according to the new lines, would have carried in these new lines by 6.6 percentage points. So, it's a Republican district, not by a ton, but you have to keep it, Republicans kept it. That's the challenge to keep your map.
Then you move over here, the district here, this is a much more competitive district.
TAPPER: This is a new seat.
KING: This is a new seat. Had these lines been in place in 2020, Donald Trump would have won this district by three points.
So that's a much more competitive district, right, and Republicans hold it. That's the challenge, right? You have to pick up where you can't. So you come back out again and you come across, you're going across the swath of I-5 here, as you go across the State of Florida.
Cory Mills is winning over here. Again, Republican five and a half, right? So a Republican district, not a comfortably Republican district. So, you're watching -- those are three of the four competitive races in Florida. The other one again, we talked about this earlier in the context of the Governor's race and the Senate race, Maria Elvira Salazar. One, is a former Democratic district, the lines have been redrawn and these lines, this sort of -- look at that 0.6, right? This is a 50/50 district. Donald Trump would have carried this according to these lines by less than one percentage point. And you have the Republican incumbent who is leading at the moment, I don't believe we have called this race yet, but you see this here. Again, can Republicans hold? The way to get the majority, if you're in the minority is hold what you've got and take some away. And if you look at these districts here in the State of Florida, Republicans are doing exactly what they needed to do.
So let's check back in. You hold what you've got, then you're looking to take some away. We just told you, the Republican in Florida winning that district was about six percent Republican. Well, you come here to a district that is 6.7 percent Democratic, right?
So Republicans are holding the districts where they have an advantage in the six, seven point range. The question is can Democrats do the same?
At the moment in this district in Virginia? Again, we're not there yet. We're waiting for more votes, but the Democratic incumbent is losing by nine points there.
TAPPER: And that's with 77 percent of the vote in, that's a lot of vote.
KING: It's a lot of vote. The challenge is, what's the outstanding vote? A. Where is it?
KING: And B. What kind of it, right? So you come back in here and you want to look at live outstanding vote. I have to go over here. Let me -- I can't get to it on this, oh, I'm in the competitive races, that's why I can't get to it. So let's come out here and we look, and we come on in, we go through the counties in the district. Wow, that's a lot of red in this county as you come through it here.
You come right up here. You have Stafford County here. Democrat plus two. Vega is winning. You come over. Oops --
TAPPER: I think you went out of the district.
KING: Yes, it's acting up on me. There we go. Come across the county lines.
TAPPER: There you go.
KING: So you come down back in here and you come here, Culpeper County, this is a Republican area, 20 points, she is winning by 20 points.
KING: You just move around the district and you come through.
So, we're going to have to watch if this one plays out. I'm going to come back, so I don't make anybody dizzy going through the counties here. Come all the way back out to the district here. You see a little --
KING: Every now then you get a little glitch in the technology.
TAPPER: Can you go -- can you go back to Spanberger's district for one second.
KING: Sure, let me come out of this.
TAPPER: I'm just curious about --
KING: Come out of this. We come back to here.
TAPPER: You give us the county view.
KING: See if it doesn't glitch on you.
TAPPER: Okay, what's that little spot of blue there? What's that?
KING: Let's pop it up and see. There you go. It's Fredericksburg, Virginia.
TAPPER: Okay, so that's the major city in the area.
TAPPER: And there is another blue sport north of it.
KING: And it's a Democratic area. Come on out and you come up here. You move on out and you come back, now you're moving much more closer.
Prince William County, you're getting closer to DC. This is a 30 --
TAPPER: This is only 26 percent in Prince William County, which is a D 32.
KING: And she is she's running. There you go. There's your 30 points right there, a little below -- a little below 32, but you want to be about 30 points ahead here. And so yes, 26 percent. Again, you're talking about what's outstanding.
TAPPER: Well, that's important.
KING: There it is.
TAPPER: If you're in Spanberger's camp right now, you're thinking, well, we've still got 74 percent of the vote in Prince William.
KING: Closer in Democratic suburbs. You still have got a lot of votes to come in, which is why you don't call the race and you bring it out. This one is a little unstable at the moment as she comes through it. We can switch over here if it keeps doing that.
But yes, so you have -- there is outstanding votes, and so if you're in the Spanberger headquarters right now, you're calling your precinct captains out there to try to figure out where they are and then we match it out through the night and see where we get out some votes.
TAPPER: Right. I mean, because the precinct captains also have neighborhood by neighborhood, precinct by precinct.
KING: Right. They know -- they know. I've got to come out of these because that's when you overdo it, that's when it gets a little glitchy when you put too much data.
Yes, the precinct captains know exactly where these are. I just want to come back out to it this way and try to come back at it. So 77 percent of the vote as you come through it. Let's just look at the --
TAPPER: And one of the reasons why we're focusing so much on Congresswoman Spanberger's district is that it really is going to be, I think, a bellwether for what happens tonight. It is, of the three congressional districts, it is the one that we don't know really what's going to happen and we don't know in any of them, but...
KING: It's in the middle. It's in the middle is the best way to put it in.
KING: So the Wexton --
TAPPER: Wexton is generally favored.
KING: Eighteen-Point Democratic district.
KING: Right. And you see Hung Cao winning in some of the counties hereto, further out, as you move out a little bit. We're still waiting for votes here. But yes, you have an 18-point Democratic district there where the Democrat is leading. Then you come down here, and it's a seven point Democratic district and you have the Republican ahead.
Again, Florida, the Republicans are holding their plus seven district. Here in Virginia at a moment, they are on defense and then you come down to the third one down here, which is the true swing district, Democrat one plus eight and you have the Republican candidate comfortably ahead at the moment in that district, still more votes to count.
TAPPER: Of the three Democratic Congresswoman from Virginia, Luria, is in the toughest battle.
KING: Yes, without a doubt.
TAPPER: Then Spanberger, then Wexton. So Spanberger, the reason to look at her seat is because if it falls, it's probably going to be a lot of other Democrats that are going to have bad nights. Can we take a look at the Senate?
TAPPER: If that's okay with you.
KING: Yes. To your point about that one, if only the Luria district fell in Virginia, you're likely to -- and districts like that follow, you're likely to get a Republican majority because they only need a net of five, but a smaller majority.
KING: If the Luria districts and the Spanberger districts, meaning districts like that, as you move across the country keep falling, that's how Republicans build a majority and that's what we're going to watch.
TAPPER: A bigger one.
KING: Now, we want come back here to the Senate.
TAPPER: What have we got going in Pennsylvania right now?
KING: You'll notice, people at home, that Mr. Tapper is a fan of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. That's all right. That's home. Home is where one lives.
TAPPER: Well, it is perhaps the most competitive Senate race either this one or Georgia.
KING: Without a doubt. Well, if we get Western Nevada, we can have a competition about it, but these are the 50/50 very competitive Senate races.
And again, this is that -- you know, we have to be very careful because we're looking at overwhelmingly Democratic areas reporting votes so far.
KING: Allegheny, Pittsburgh, and the suburbs around it. John Fetterman is Lieutenant Governor. He's from Braddock, which is out west here, very well-known, plus it's a huge Democratic area to begin with.
Then you move over here. This is suburbs, Cumberland County just outside of the capital of Harrisburg.
TAPPER: It's R plus 10 district, though.
KING: Yes, it is R plus 10. But which is why, you know, you're most likely looking at an early vote count here.
TAPPER: Right. Definitely.
KING: As you come through it here, and then you come over here to Philadelphia, and we come here, where you have 91 percent, but it's just 11 percent.
TAPPER: It is only 11 percent.
KING: Fetterman needs to keep -- he is not going to get 92 percent of the vote in Philadelphia, I suspect by the time we're done, but you need to keep it way, way up.
About this, this is interesting. If you notice, you heard Kate Bolduan earlier tonight. You know, when Donald Trump came last to Pennsylvania, they were out here. They were out here in Westmoreland County, Latrobe, right? So let's go back to 2020 and let us look at the presidential race. Come with me here. The presidential race.
When Donald Trump comes, they go here. You see why.
KING: Right? So Latrobe, Westmoreland County, that is where Oz is standing in front of Trump's plane with Trump trying to turn out vote because he needs to run it up in Trump country, Pennsylvania. Where was he last night? He was over here. Come down from Allentown you come down here. He was in Pennsburg, which is right here, just south of Lehigh County, about 25 miles from Doylestown, which is this county seat of Bucks County. Right?
So let's go back to the Senate race when in 2016, when Pat Toomey who has the Senate seat, won reelection, right? He lost Montgomery County, but again, the margins. Look like that, right?
KING: Look at the margins there for Pat Toomey, very same year in the presidential race. Look at the margins for Hillary Clinton. Right? So Pat Toomey was much more competitive in the suburbs than Donald Trump back in 2018, and Pat Toomey won Bucks County.
We don't have any votes in Bucks County yet. Watch this one tonight. If Mehmet Oz can keep this one, this is the more blue collar of the suburban collars, you know this better than I do. Of the collar counties of Montgomery, right around Philadelphia, Montgomery County, Bucks County, you come down here as well to Delaware County and you come back here just to look --
TAPPER: I keep telling you, it is Delco.
KING: Delco. Right. I said that last time because you told me to on television, Twitter loved it. But you come back to the results now of where we are. This is very early, though. But this is where we're going to watch.
KING: It's going to be right here.
KING: King Oz win or run about even here, and can he get closer here than Donald Trump did against Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden? Because this is why right here is why Joe Biden won the Commonwealth, Hillary Clinton just lost it and Joe Biden won it right here.
TAPPER: Yes, and it will be interesting to see again, as we're looking at it in Georgia, the ticket splitting. It will be interesting to see the people that vote for the Attorney General, Josh Shapiro, who is a Democrat, but then cross the aisle and vote for -- this is what county?
KING: I just switched it over.
TAPPER: This is the State.
KING: This is --
TAPPER: We don't -- obviously, do not expect this to be the result.
TAPPER: But it will be interesting to see how many people vote for Shapiro and then vote for Oz for Senate, because that will be a phenomenon as well like the reverse of what we are seeing in Georgia.
KING: Yes, and that will be -- we will look here, and we will look up here, Northampton County, Luzerne County, Lehigh County, and then the Philadelphia suburban counties to see if you get ticket splitting in the Governor's race like we are beginning to see in Georgia, and we'll see if we see it when we get more results in Ohio.
But that race, the Governor's race there is called.
TAPPER: My mom is from North Carolina. Can we check that out?
KING: We have to come to Senate. Come to North Carolina. Cheri Beasley remains ahead here. This has been a static vote count for a little while, though. Fifty three to 45.
TAPPER: You've got to figure most of this is still early vote.
KING: Yes, it's disproportionately not -- now, if you're a Democrat looking at this map, you're saying okay, Mecklenburg County, that's number one. We're running it up. That's great. It's 50 percent of the vote.
The challenge for Ted Budd is he is not going to win Mecklenburg County. The challenge is to narrow that margin some because it's the number one county, it's almost 11 percent of the State population.
This is Charlotte and then up here, again suburbs and you get to more -- it gets more exurban as it goes out. That's why it gets more competitive, right? In here, the Democrats -- it is blue, will the Democrats do well in the closed in suburbs? If you went precinct by precinct.
TAPPER: It is all the margins because she is going to have to do better in that county. KING: Right, you'd get more red out there. So, then you come up, you come up to Raleigh. This is where -- this is where Democrats have high hopes about North Carolina. Why? Because they win the African-American vote. They win younger voters, and they win college educated voters. And you have the Research Triangle up here, which is why Democrats keep saying we're going to flip North Carolina, we're going to make it a blue State as opposed to a leans red State, even though it has a Democratic Governor right now, you would say it leans red, and she's running up --
Again, this is -- well, that's 67 percent right there, running it up in Durham. This is the sixth largest of the hundred counties in North Carolina. So you're looking at a very competitive race as it comes in.
I would just wait. We're at 53 percent now. Let's see if that number holds up when we get above 60.
TAPPER: Let's bring in David Chalian at the Battleground Desk, if we can to tell us more about the vote we're actually seeing here in North Carolina and what we're not seeing -- David.
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yes, Jake, your presumption about this being a lot of early vote is correct. I want to show you here: Cheri Beasley obviously now has 1.1 million votes in this race to Ted Budd's 971,000 votes. We've got 53 percent of the vote and the estimated vote is in a how much of this is pre-election early vote, 96 percent, and as we've been talking about, the pre- election early vote, absentee vote that tends to favor Democrats. Democrats participate in that early voting in more robust numbers than Republicans.
At the end of the day, we think in North Carolina, only 55 percent is going to be pre-election vote.
So right now, most of what you're seeing there is pre-election vote. I just want to show you this one other board that we can break down the different kinds of votes.
So among male voters, Cheri Beasley as a 46 percentage point lead over Ted Budd and there is still about a quarter of the male vote to be counted. Early in-person, she has a much narrower lead, 6.2 percent, and most of that is already in what you're looking at.
But look at where Ted Budd's campaign is focused on right now. He has a 37.6 percent lead on Election Day vote and 95.6 percent of it still is waiting to be counted, Jake.
So obviously, the Budd folks are saying, "Hey, that's a huge advantage category for us." And basically nothing you're looking at in the overall vote is Election Day vote yet -- Jake.
TAPPER: That is an important point to make, David Chalian at the Battleground Desk.
And so --
KING: I just popped this up.
TAPPER: This is outstanding vote?
KING: This is live outstanding vote. So, what do we know that is missing? And as David noted, so you see these big blue circles, there are a lot of votes missing in the Raleigh area, there are a lot of votes missing in the Charlotte area, up here by Winston-Salem.
The blue tells you the Democrat is leading there now. Now, even in places where Ted Budd is not going to catch or pass Cheri Beasley, David's point about so much day of votes still being out there, that is where he narrows the margins, right?
When that vote comes in, if it comes in, like we saw in 2020 and as the polling indicates that will come in this year. And again, we'll count them and see if that's the way it turns out.
But then you also see all these medium sized, moderate sized and even smaller sized red circles. There is a ton of outstanding vote in the Republican areas of North Carolina, that will be Election Day vote and that will be disproportionately, you know, Ted Budd is leading in these places, you just pop went up to take a peek at it.
You see Union County, he is leading now with just early vote where, you know, Cheri Beasley again, a lot of Democratic votes among the early vote, she's getting 39 percent. Let's see, will we get up to seventy-five, eighty percent? Let's revisit some of these places and see what happens when that comes in.
So if you look at this map, you see the big circles and you say there are a lot of Democratic votes out there, but just remember, that means the Democrat is leading in that area right now. And so when the Election Day vote comes in, the Democrat is likely in the big urban areas to stay ahead, to stay leading. The question is can Ted Budd narrow the margins? If he does, that will change.
TAPPER: Well, with 94 percent of the vote today yet to be counted, and he is up 37 percentage points. I mean, the Ted Budd people know --
KING: He is running very competitively.
TAPPER: We've got a lot of Ted Budd votes yet to count.
Can I take a quick peek at Georgia Senate while we're at it just because I'm wondering what's --
KING: Right here, pull it up and we'll see where we are.
TAPPER: Forty-one percent. Well, it's 52 percent.
KING: Forty-one percent. It is 52-46. It just went up to 99,000 vote lead for Senator Warnock. Senator Warnock, obviously the Democratic incumbent. Again, we have a lot of votes to count in Georgia. This is disproportionately early vote. The key there is watch the two leading candidates if someone at the end of the night above 50. That number has stayed pretty stable right there. Again, you're looking at this. This is the Georgia Senate race and you come over to the Governor's race. The Democratic candidate in the Senate race is at 52 percent, the Democratic candidate in the Governor's race is trailing at 49 percent if you round that up.
One of the challenges, we break this down throughout the night, how many Democrats voting Warnock for Senate, but Kemp for Governor. We'll get more of that as we play it out.
Again, if you look at the Governor's map as it is right now, we close here on the Senate map right now. Democrats still leading. This is what they want: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, but Jake that is disproportionately early vote.
In the hour ahead, we will get more.
TAPPER: We will indeed because we're just moments away from another chance to make projections as polling places close in Arkansas. And CNN is making a projection right now. CNN is projecting that incumbent Democrat -- incumbent Republican Senator Todd Young will be reelected in the state of Indiana. The Hoosier State getting another term with Senator Todd Young.
In Arkansas, it is too early to call between incumbent Senator John Boozman and Democrat Natalie James. Too early to call at this moment right now. Let's take a look at the balance of power right now in the U.S. Senate. Democrats hold 36 seats. Republicans hold 36 seats as well, 28 seats remain. Remember, you need 51 seats to control the U.S. Senate. Republicans need to pick up one net seat from the Democrats in order to win control of the U.S. Senate.
Let's talk about governor's races. Now, Boris Sanchez has more there.
BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN HOST: Jake, we have three projections to bring you, all three of them Republican holds. Beginning in the state of New Hampshire. Chris Sununu, there are rumors he may run for president in 2024. Sununu winning a fourth term defeating physician Tom Sherman. Meantime in the state of South Carolina, not a competitive race there the incumbent Republican Henry McMaster, defeating former Democratic Congressman Joe Cunningham to win another four years. An update now from Tennessee another reliably Red State, Donald Trump won 60-ish percent of the vote there in 2020. Bill Lee winning reelection, the incumbent Republican defeating ICU physician Jason Martin.
Let's get a look at some key race alerts now, beginning with that all important race we will not stop talking about in the state of Georgi. The last time we checked, Stacey Abrams had the lead now that has flipped, Brian Kemp, the incumbent Republican leads with roughly 40,000 votes with 42% of the vote. And notably Kemp above that 50% threshold, meaning he could avoid a runoff.
Let's get a look at Texas now. Former Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke with a 60,000-vote advantage right now over incumbent Republican Greg Abbott, about 26% of the vote in, in Texas. An update now a key race alert from the state of Michigan. incumbent Democrat Tudor -- Gretchen Whitmer, I should say locked in a tough reelection battle against conservative commentator Tudor Dixon. Right now, Whitmer sitting 55,000 votes ahead still very, very early in the night in Michigan, only 3% of the vote in there. We also have a key race alert to bring you from the state of Pennsylvania where Attorney General Josh Shapiro has a 287,000 vote advantage over Doug Mastriano. Remember, Mastriano is an election denier who tried to overturn the 2020 election results in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Still early there, though only 8% of the vote in.
Let's turn it over to my friend Kasie Hunt who was an update for us on Senate races. Kasie.
KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: And you know what, Boris, we've got some really interesting comparisons to show you what we just learned about the governor's races and where we stand here in the Senate. And let's start in Georgia, where Raphael Warnock is leading 51.9%, now Herschel Walker's 46.4%. Just to refresh the governor's race looks the opposite, Kemp at 50.9, Abrams at 48.6. That really shows you the difference here in terms of performance. We got 43% of the vote in in Georgia, we expect to stay close all evening.
Now let's check in on North Carolina. Where Cheri Beasley's at 52% to Ted Budd's 46.3%. You just heard that great breakdown from John King about where the votes are still out. There is reason for the Budd campaign to potentially be optimistic here. We're going to be sticking close to this all night. 55% of the vote in there.
Now let's go to Ohio where Tim Ryan is out to an early lead 56.9% to JD Vance's 43%. But it is still extremely early in Ohio. And of course, this is a state that has trended very red in recent years, we've got 29% of the voting in Ohio. But now let's go to New Hampshire where Maggie Hassan is sitting at 60.7% to Don Bolduc's 38.2%. Democrats in New Hampshire telling me they feel very good about where Maggie Hassan is at this hour. But of course, it's extremely early, just 14.9% of the vote has been counted in New Hampshire.
But now let's check in on Pennsylvania because we can compare these numbers here to what Boris just told us in the governor's race. John Fetterman at 80.1% to Mehmet Oz's 17.9%. Obviously, the race is going to end much closer than where it stands right now. But Shapiro is sitting at 84.5%. He's the Democratic candidate for governor. That gives you a little bit of an idea of how Fetterman is underperforming Shapiro, which has been the concern for Democrats all the way along that potential tickets flitters especially in the Philadelphia collar counties would pick Mehmet Oz for Senate and Shapiro for Governor. Jake.
TAPPER: All right, Kasie, thanks so much. Really appreciate that.
We've been telling you all night there are about 82 House seats that are competitive, races that are competitive, that we're really keeping an eye on because it is in those 82 races, that the balance of power in the House of Representatives will be won or lost. Let's give you an update right now. Right now, of the 23 competitive seats that are too early to call. The voting has ended, but they're too early to call. Democrats are leading and 15 of them, Republicans are leading in eight of them. It's early yet, that doesn't necessarily mean Democrats are going to win 15 of them. But that is the state of play as of right now.
Let's go over to John King at the magic wall to talk more about some of these House seats. Tell us what you're seeing, John.
KING: Well, to your point, leading the vote, we're not done in these races. And again, if you're watching at home, and you're a Democrat you think or even a Republican Democrats are winning, right? Well, that's, that's a better number for Democrats, maybe then some might have felt coming to the House, but they need to do better than that in these competitive seats. So, let's just come over here and remind people, you know, uncalled for the uncalled races here. It's the ahead, that matters.
So, we're going to come over here we look at these competitive races. If you're the Democrats, you look at it this map, you start in the northeast, number one, ranked choice voting here, and we got a long way to go in this district here. Only 2% of the vote in. You know, Jared Golden, a Democrat running in a district Donald Trump carried if these were the lines in 2020 by six points. This is a very tough lift for a Democratic incumbent. He's done it before. He's done it before. So, we'll see how it plays out. So, he -- that's one that would be one this one we might know they might not know the answer for a long time because of the rank choice voting.
So, then you come down to the state of New Hampshire, you pop it up, and you see two districts, Democrats leading in both right now. But we are very early in the count in New Hampshire. But if you're at the Democratic campaign headquarters of the Republican campaign headquarters, these ones here, you're looking at these Republicans who can get a majority without the seats. But if they're right at the end of the night, you're talking about a bigger Republican majority, which is why we will keep an eye on these competitive races. A tenacious Democratic incumbent in a tough race. She knows the district, she knows she campaigns hard again over here, a Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas, we talked earlier, Governor Sununu is winning big in the state. Right. So, the question is, can all the Democrats, whether it's the Senate race, or the House races, hang on in that environment.
So, let's pull it out, come back nationally and dropped down. I started my career in the state of Rhode Island, you see red in Rhode Island, you want to take a look at it because this district has been Democratic for a very, very long time. This is a surprising candidate here very, very close Seth Magaziner, State Treasurer against the former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Republicans if they can pick up this seat, if this seat is red at the end of the night, Republicans will have a majority and I would argue that majority that would be rather large, because this is a Democratic 13 point. Third, Joe Biden by the lines of this district today would have won it by 13 points in 2020. So, watch the results of about 62%. That's a very close race. We keep watching it. But if you're looking at the map, that's, that would be a big takeaway for the Republicans. We come down here to New Jersey, this has been a race people have been looking at again, a another Democratic incumbent, who was in a tough district. This was a Joe Biden by just shy of 4%. District in 2020. Malinowski, Tom Malinowski ahead at the moment, this is early vote running against the son of the former governor, Tom Kean, 11%, one of the competitive districts were watching. Again, if you're seeing how big of a Republican night is it, if they win the 1% or the marginal districts, OK, can they win the 4% districts and then you build from there. That's how Republicans are trying to build.
And then we'll just come back. And we come down in here, we come check back in two places. We'll do Virginia first, then we'll check Pennsylvania. And again, Republicans continue to leave. We've been checking on these because the polls closed earlier, in two of the three competitive races in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Just checking on the margin one more time again, that one got closer that got closer, you have Jennifer Wexton still ahead, but Hung Cao was closed at 240 9% right there, we're at 90%. And we're watching it.
So, think about that. Think about that, even if Wexton holds on to win this seat. This is an 18-point Democratic advantage for Joe Biden in 2020. If the lines were -- as they are today, and you have a Republican candidate at the moment with 10% of the vote out, could change 10% in the -- you know, the populated suburbs here just outside of DC. But that is a close race in a district that if you went back two years ago, it was not close. That tells you about the environment.
You dropped down here. And again, Yesli Vega, were at 89%. A little shy here in a district. This is a Democrat plus seventh district and you have the Republican candidate ahead by four or five points, five points, if you do just a shy shade of it, and then you come down here. Again, we've talked about this before the most vulnerable Democrat in the Commonwealth of Virginia is Elaine Luria, 68% of the vote. So, you're hoping and hoping and hoping but that's a pretty healthy lead for the Republican candidate Jen Kiggans there.
So, what does that mean? You go race by race. People at home, I start to get confused. What it means is we're starting to fill in the map. Democrats are leading in 18 of these competitive districts, which means they're leading at the moment in more competitive districts, which is good news. But it's not good enough news, in the sense that Democrats have to win two-thirds of the competitive race is to have a chance to hold the House Majority.
TAPPER: Also, I would imagine that some of this is early vote.
TAPPER: Meaning that the Democrats are leading right now because Democrats disproportionately vote early vote by mail, et cetera.
KING: Without a doubt. That's what's happening here. TAPPER: Yes.
KING: Just to illustrate your point I bring up Ohio, and I just want to check if the vote count has gone. It's gone up some of and I might say about a third of the vote now. Marcy Kaptur again, her district used to be cut off about here and come East. They added Republican areas, the Ohio legislature, Ohio governor, Republican, Governor, Republican legislature, they added seats here, but she's up comfortably at the moment, but it's a third of the vote. So, we want to see, and this would be news down here, and that this is a Republican incumbent, Steve Chabot, Cincinnati, and the suburbs through there, it gets more rural as you get to the north, again, 33% of the vote in though and it's all early vote.
TAPPER: So, let me just bring up. Remember there 82 competitive races that we're looking at overall, right now, 27 of them, the polls have closed and CNN is saying they're too early to call. Eighteen of those seats, Democrats are leading in of the 27th. So, Democrats are leading in 18 of the 27 competitive seats are too early to call. Republicans are leading in nine of the competitive seats that are too early to call.
Again, early vote, we don't know what's going to happen. This does not mean the Democrats are going to win 18 of the 27. But this is some reason for hope. If you're a Democrat watching at home.
KING: It some reason for hope that at least you're competitive. And you hope maybe as you move further west, you get more. The challenge for the Democrats is if you come, you know, to the House today, if you go back to the House, where we are today turn off the competitive seats. Again, the disk -- the lines are different this time. So, in some ways, it's still a tad misleading to show it. But the basic math is not, that you have 220 Democrats and 212 Republicans in the House today. And so, the challenge is Republicans need only a net gain of five.
So, when you come back to this year, and where you're looking at this, and this is all of the races right now, you only need a net gain of five. And in those competitive races, 57 of them are Democratic incumbents. So only 22 Republican and comes. Joe Biden of the 82, of the 82 competitive districts when we put them up on the map. And let me just bring those up to highlight them. Of these 82 competitive districts, Joe Biden carried 60 of them.
KING: Or would have if the lines had been as they are this year, in 2020. Joe Biden would have carried 60. So, the fact that, you know, the Democrats and the Democrats, they essentially need to win those 60.
KING: And they need to win them, they need to win out or somewhere around that number to keep it and it's just you know, again, competitive. Yes. competitive enough. Looking at this map, the early, we're not done.
KING: The early instinct is probably not.
TAPPER: So, put up the House of Representatives as it stands today. Because I want to, I want to show something to people. If we can zoom in on New England, right now. OK.
KING: I can stretch it out for you.
TAPPER: Stretching out for us. Can you do that?
KING: (INAUDIBLE) doesn't want to go? There we go.
TAPPER: OK. New England, is entirely blue. Right? We're not counting about New York, we're not counting New York, which is here. And we're not counting New York, which is here. It's entirely blue. But as you pointed out, right now in Rhode Island, where you started out as a reporter.
KING: Come forward.
TAPPER: It's red.
KING: And you look some red. And now that that Cape Cod district, there's just a few votes, and that's Bill Keating districts, his Democratic district, if that stays red, then we're having a huge Republican night. But that Rhode Island seat, those results are real. You come in here, all the results are real. I shouldn't use that kind of language in this environment. I just, I just mean that I mean, contextual. You're up to 70% of the vote here. What I meant by that is that if you come to this district here, you're looking at a tiny number of votes.
KING: Tiny number of votes. So, it's not contextual, yet. I need to be careful this environment about the words we use.
TAPPER: My point is just that your point about like, if Republicans and we haven't called anything on New England, but if Republicans are picking up seats in New England, which is currently all blue, that says something about what we might see. Again, it's all early, but I'm just saying the fact that it's even competitive.
KING: Right, and in this one here, and this one here, you know, candidates do matter. Seth Magaziner is the state treasurer, Allan Fung was the mayor of Cranston which city right here south of Florida, south of Providence, I'm sorry. This is where I started my career. He was a popular mayor. He picked up the trash, they filled the potholes. So, you have a popular Mayor running against the Democrat whose very well known in the state. His dad was very prominent in Rhode Island when I was there 30 plus years ago. But it's just it's inflation. It's the it's the national environment and a competitive candidate, somebody who is well known in a predominantly white, blue collar working district and again, remember those words right? primarily white working-class district that used to be Democratic. We've seen in other parts of the country they're trending Republican, if this -- we're not done here yet, but that's, that's something to watch. We're going to be analyzing that's we get challenged in the room, a lot of coffee, go through the exit polls for weeks and weeks after this, if that holds.
TAPPER: All right. We're going to get another big round of results straight ahead, including the high stakes contest for senator and governor in Arizona. That's coming after a break. Stay with us.
TAPPER: It's an Election Night In America. Welcome back.
Ahead this hour big stakes as voting ends in 15 states and we're going to get a huge new round of results. It's going to help decide the battle for control of the U.S. Congress at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, polls are going to close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. The battle for 218 House seats the number needed to win control of the chamber is heating up as we get deeper into the night. Eighty-two House seats are on the line in the states where polls are closing at the top of the hour. Twenty- three of those seats are competitive and have the potential to tilt the balance of power.
In the fight for the U.S. Senate, Arizona is a critical battleground, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is running for a full term after his special election when two years ago. The former astronaut faces Republican venture capitalist Blake Masters, Masters has received millions in funding from his boss billionaire Peter Thiel.
In Wisconsin democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is aiming to become the state's first black U.S. senator. He's challenging Republican incumbent Senator Ron Johnson, a close Trump ally, who has downplayed the January 6th insurrection. In Colorado, Democratic Senator Michael Bennett is seeking a third term and the purple state that has been leaning blue in recent years. Bennet faces a competitive challenge from a moderate Republican construction company CEO Joe O'Dea, who has tried to distance himself from Donald Trump.
Turning to the governors in Arizona, the Secretary of State Democrat Katie Hobbs is battling for an open gubernatorial seat now held by Republicans. She faces former television anchor Kari Lake. Lake is one of the most vocal candidates spreading Trump's false claims about the 2020 election. In Michigan Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer has faced harsh criticism from Republicans for her pandemic response. She faces Republican conservative commentator and first-time candidate Tudor Dixon. In New York state Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul is in a more competitive race than expected against Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin. Hochul is the former Lieutenant Governor who rose to the top job last year after Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned amid scandal. And in Texas, former Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke is in a tough fight to unseat Republican Governor Greg Abbott in that deep red state.
We're just minutes away from the second biggest round of poll closings tonight. Let's go to our correspondents. First to Arizona. Kyung Lah is covering the Republican candidates for Governor and Senator Kari Lake and Blake Master.
Kyung, what is happening there in these final moments before polls close.
KYUNG LAH, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, they are watching the clock very, very closely here, Jake. And here is why I'm just taking a look through the Maricopa County Elections Department website. There are hundreds of people in line at dozens of locations. And so, we're seeing the Republican candidates who are expecting to really have their voters come out today, tweeting again and again stay in line. Kari Lake tweeting, stay in line, hold the line. They want as big of a turnout as they can today.
Now when these results start to drop, and we do not expect them until another one hour and 10 minutes, polls do close and nine minutes now. When those results drop we are hearing all the campaign saying patience. Patience. We are hearing from U.S. Senate candidate Mark Kelly as nominee Mark Kelly saying, whoever is leading tonight may not be the winner. That is the key. It is too early after that first drop.
So, all of these campaigns saying we're going to watch these numbers. We're going to watch the turnout and someone else who was also watching what is happening here very carefully. Is Donald Trump Kari Lake's campaign saying that he called her twice ending his one of his calls by saying, go get them girl. Jake.
TAPPER: All right, Kyung Lah at the headquarters for Kari Lake and Blake Masters.
Let's go north and east now to Omar Jimenez, who is the campaign headquarters of incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson.
Omar, what is the mood there? What are you hearing from the Johnson campaign?
OMAR JIMENEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jake, right now the cautiously optimistic Senator Ron Johnson is mingling among his supporters here at their part -- election night party in Neenah, Wisconsin and more of the central part of the state. Now, obviously, he is trying to win a third term here and with it, he has brought implications of what that would mean. One, it could contribute to a change in power in the Senate, which means he would chair an investigations committee and he is always -- he has already said he is ready to ramp up the number of investigations out of Congress.
On the other side of things, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, he has told us he is feeling very good tonight. He feels that they have done everything they could do, up to this point and hearing from party leadership in the state. Democratic leadership feel that one thing that they're watching for tonight is that absentee ballots will be counted later. They're traditionally among the last ballots to be counted here at central counting facilities across the state.
So, they are watching for a potential red mirage. And then some of their support to come in later in the night. Talking to Republican leadership. They're aware of it, but they say they feel good about what they've seen on election day itself. Jake.
TAPPER: All right, Omar Jimenez, thank you so much with Johnson campaign headquarters in Wisconsin.
And we're taking a look at the lay of the land in the U.S. Senate. And we were just joking about what's going on in Maryland right now. Tell everybody.
KING: I look at the map can be deceiving early on tonight as we count results as we've said. Just quickly, where Kyung Lah and Omar, were about to get two of the most competitive states in American politics when those results start to flow in, in Arizona and Wisconsin. But just to pop up you see, the state of Maryland is red right now, Chris Van Hollen is a Democratic incumbent, Chris Chaffee is his opponent is 13 to 12. OK.
But again, if you look at watching at home and you're just passing through quickly, and you see the map red, that's why we want to explain it when we see things like this. We'll come back to that one in 10 or 15 minutes and we'll see if that holds up that would be a big surprise.
But there are there are the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is blue at the moment, that's a Republican held Senate seat at the moment. North Carolina is blue at the moment. That's a Republican held Senate seat today. Ohio is blue at the moment that is also a Republican held Senate seats. Now as we move later into the night, people watching at home, we've been cautioning you all night long. Please wait, please wait. Let's wait for more votes.
While we're getting more votes, but we're still only at 37% of the vote. So, you're still looking at disproportionately in the state of Ohio early vote. I just was looking here a moment ago because this is Tim Ryan's House District. He's a member of the House of Representatives trying to run statewide in a very complicated red leaning state. This is his House district. This is that base of his House district, it stretches out and down a little bit early votes in their 33% running a big lead. That's what he needs to do. Obviously, these are the people who know him best. This is his Democratic base.
And you come up to Cuyahoga County. Only 30% of the vote in here, 74% to 26%. That's a big deal. Right? This again, Democratic base. Cleveland and the suburbs around it. You move over here to Lake County. This will be interesting to watch. Right? If this is blue at the end of the night, Tim Ryan is running very, very competitive because this gets more Republican as you move out Lake County in the suburbs. He's ahead at the moment, but it's half of the vote. And David Chalian is going to join us in just a second because disproportionately I believe --
KING: -- we're still looking at more early votes than day of votes.
TAPPER: So right now, 37% of the vote in Ohio is in, and Tim Ryan is up with 37%. And let's bring in David Chalian at the battleground desk to tell us.
David, tell us who this 37% is and what we're waiting for.
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yes, so you guys see that lead? Tim Ryan with 868,000 votes, JD Vance. 770,000 votes. You noted Jake, that's with 37% of the estimated vote is fully in. Eighty-two percent of that vote is pre-election vote. It's early vote, absentee by mail vote, early in-person vote where Democrats tend to participate in bigger numbers than Republicans do. At the end of the day, we think it's only going to be 32%, 32% of the Ohio vote overall will be pre- election votes.
So right now, this vote that you're looking at is overinflated with early votes, not that they're not real votes and they're counted. It's just making up such a larger share than we think it will make at the end of the day. And that gives JD Vance and his campaign hope that as more and more of that election day vote comes in that Republican leaning vote. It's going to help him potentially overtake Tim Ryan and these voters.
TAPPER: All right, we'll keep watching the actual vote come in. And John, can you take me down to Georgia as the devil went down once? What are we looking at there?
KING: Easiest ways to nonstop Delta flight from DCA. Look, you see, again, remember this was not this close earlier, right?
KING: And not only was it not this close earlier, Senator Warnock was above 50%. Again, we're still at 53%. If you're with us in 2020, for the presidential race, early 2021. For the two Georgia run offs. These are espresso races. These are you're up late, and you're probably county --
KING: -- the next day as well. But you are getting more of the vote and you are seeing the margin tighten. So, 49.6 to 48.7, 19,000 vote lead, this has narrowed quite considerably. And again, we were talking earlier, the Democratic incumbent senator on top right there. When you look at the map, this is a state where you have a Democratic incumbent senator and a Republican incumbent governor running in the same election, which makes an interesting dynamic --
TAPPER: Before you do that, I want to -- KING: Sure.
TAPPER: -- bring in David Chalian at the battleground desk to tell us more.
David, 53% of the vote is in estimated tell us what we're waiting for.
CHALIAN: Yes, so we're breaking this down. Jake. Mail vote early in person, election day vote. I just want to show you what is still uncounted. So, in mail vote, 36.8% advantage for Raphael Warnock, 51.6% of it's still uncounted, early in-person vote 35.6% still uncounted. He's got a much smaller advantage there. But the big Walker category 42.4% lead for Herschel Walker among Election Day voters and 87.6% of that vote still remains to be counted.
So, this is clearly going to be a close tight race, as we watch it all night long, guys.
TAPPER: All right, John, what else were you going to tell us?
KING: All right, so a lot of that votes still to be counted. Just to follow up on that point before I check into the governor's race. Then you see a lot of these gray counties here as well, that suburb -- that is rural Trump country are very Republican country. So, we still have no votes there, even counted at all just want to pop in some of the see, you have no votes counted all. Again, these are smaller counties, and so it's less than 1% of the population. But that's how Republicans run it up in the rural areas to counter it.
So, we have to see I just want to check again, Democratic incumbent senator running in the same election as a Republican incumbent, common governor, Senator Warnock is at 49.5%, the governor is at 53%. And you see the Democratic Senate candidate at 46%. So, you see the split right. Split, split take it (ph) voting between Brian Kemp getting 53% of the vote.