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CNN Live Event/Special

Polls Beginning To Open Across East; Balance Of Power In Congress Up For Grabs; Inside The Last Weeks Of The Trump Campaign. Aired 5:30-6a ET

Aired November 05, 2024 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[05:30:00]

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST, SENIOR EDITOR, THE ATLANTIC: But, you know, there's so much focus in the final weeks of the campaign on whether Harris can hold down her losses in the -- in the parts of the state -- these states that are trending Republican, I think it may actually be more important whether she can maximum her strengths.

If you look at the big six counties -- Allegheny, Philadelphia, the four collar counties in Pennsylvania -- you look at the six largest counties in Michigan, or you look at Madison and Dane -- Madison, which is Dane, plus Milwaukee, minus the suburbs of Milwaukee, in all them, Kasie, they -- the improvement that Biden made over Clinton from '16 to '20 accounted for all of the overall improvement Democrats made in the state.

So if Harris can run up the margins in the big places enough, I'm not sure there are enough voters elsewhere in the states -- each -- any of these states to overcome it.

And so I'm going to be watching not only whether she can sand down -- hold down the losses but whether she can really blow out the doors in these white collar, racially diverse, growing, prosperous places that have been trending toward Democrats in the Trump era.

KASIE HUNT, CNN ANCHOR: Yeah, a really fascinating way to think about it.

So, Ron, I want to ask you about women and not just the gender gap, as we traditionally --

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

HUNT: -- think about it. But the big, big question I have here is whether or not the polling is going to accurately reflect the way women voters are going to be behaving, are going to be voting, are going to be coming out in the first presidential election --

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

HUNT: -- since Roe versus Wade fell. And especially in that Iowa poll from Ann Selzer that we saw that sort of shook things up over the weekend. I mean, I've talked to countless people that I trust who say they'd be really floored if Iowa actually moves --

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

HUNT: -- but they're really interested to see how particularly older white women seem to be conducting themselves in this election.

What do you make of that, and what are you watching for on this score?

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah. Well, first of all, you and I have gone deep dives into all the different demographic divisions that are affecting this election. Certainly, college verses non is really important. Urban verses rural is really important. Age is really important as your citing.

But there is kind of a pretty direct through line here, which is that women are a majority of the voters in all seven swing states and nationally. Women have cast the majority of votes in every election since 1980. And what that means across the swing states is that Donald Trump is going to have to win men by more than Kamala Harris wins women. It's kind of a very simple rule.

Now, that's doable in some places, particularly in the South where a lot of white women are culturally conservative evangelicals, but this is fundamentally his challenge in -- particularly I think in the former blue wall states. Can he win men by more than she wins women?

What we saw in 2022 was that Biden's advantages among women in the those states was not the ceiling for Democrats. Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and for that matter, Arizona ran better among college-educated women and non- college-educated women than Biden had two years earlier.

The non-college women still look like a problem for Democrats. They're economically squeezed and maybe less motivated by abortion. But you could see record support for Harris among college-educated women. And as you say, older women are -- you know, in many polls have been tilting more Democratic.

So again, it is a -- it is a simple math equation. If women vote for Harris in sufficient numbers in those states it is going to be really hard for Trump to overcome that because women are somewhere between 52 to 56 percent of the voters in 2020 in all seven of the key battleground states.

HUNT: Yeah -- really, really interesting.

So let's look -- let's watch a little bit of what David Plouffe had to say --

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

HUNT: -- about their path to 270. Just watch it and we'll talk about it.

BROWNSTEIN: OK.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID PLOUFFE, SENIOR ADVISER TO HARRIS-WALZ CAMPAIGN: It's very important that we have multiple pathways to 270. And, you know, just a couple of hours ago reviewing all the early vote data, what we're projecting for Election Day, how we think undecideds are breaking, we have a credible pathway to all seven states tomorrow night to go into Kamala Harris' column. But we believe they're all going to be close.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: David Plouffe with the look of a campaign operative in the very last day.

BROWNSTEIN: I know. I was just thinking that.

HUNT: The five o'clock shadow.

BROWNSTEIN: Just get me over the finish line.

HUNT: Maybe he'll get some sleep in, like, a few days? Unclear.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

HUNT: But let's talk about what he said there -- that they think they have a credible path to all seven of these states. And let's talk about how it might go tonight because the early states we're going to get --

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

HUNT: -- are going to be Sun Belt ones -- North Carolina and Georgia -- that could give us some early indicators.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah. That might be true. Most Democrats, and I'm sure you agree, still believe there is significant falloff between the three Rust Belt states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- and their chances in any of the Sun Belt states except for maybe Nevada.

[05:35:00]

Obviously, if she wins North Carolina or Georgia that is a sign that this is probably going to go her way. I mean, the way one Democrat expressed it to me yesterday was that you're going to need a little swell in the tide at the end to push either of those states over the top. We have seen that before, right? I mean, we have seen close states all break the same way, and it might be even more surprising if they don't.

But generally speaking, the Sun Belt states have looked a little harder for her. They looked a lot harder for Biden. And if either Georgia or North Carolina go her way it's probably a very good sign.

I think Democrats are still putting most of their chips on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And probably Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania is the order of their optimism on there. But again, like, just look at the six biggest -- you know, the six big counties in Pennsylvania -- Philadelphia and Allegheny, which is Pittsburgh, the four suburban counties. Hillary Clinton won them by about 780,000 votes.

HUNT: Chester, Montgomery, Delaware, and Bucks -- yes.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah, the four suburban counties -- Montgomery, Delaware, Chester, and Bucks. Hillary Clinton won them by about 780,000 votes. Biden pushed that up to about 9-10. Can Harris go even further? I mean, you would think post-Dobbs, post-January 6 she might only not only could but may have to go even further in those places.

Same thing -- I don't think they've hit the -- they've hit the ceiling in Dane County, or Oakland County in Michigan, or Kent. And in all those places she may have to go further but she may be very capable of going further, particularly with the potential of further gains than we saw even in 2020 among those college-educated women.

HUNT: This political encyclopedia that is your brain is why we love having you, Ron. And I'm so excited you're going to be on with us overnight --

BROWNSTEIN: I will see you tonight.

HUNT: -- tonight.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

HUNT: So I will see you soon. Thank you.

All right. The White House not the only prize up for grabs on Election Day. Control of the House and the Senate, of course, are critical. Democrats facing an uphill battle to hold onto their razor-thin 51-49 majority in the Senate. They're vulnerable -- particularly, in several states. There are, of course, 34 of the 100 seats in play today. A third of the Senate up every two years.

Republicans are optimistic that they can flip at least two Senate seats. Democrats are hopeful they can retake the House. They'll have to flip at least four seats. As you know, all 435 House seats are up for grabs today.

Let's bring in John Bresnahan, co-founder of Punchbowl News. Bres, good morning. No one I'd rather talk to about this --

JOHN BRESNAHAN, CO-FOUNDER, PUNCHBOWL NEWS (via Webex by Cisco): Good morning.

HUNT: -- this morning than you.

What are people telling you? How are they feeling? It does seem like the Senate is gone for Republicans. I'm curious what you think about how far, and I'm curious what you think about the House.

BRESNAHAN: Let's start in the Senate. The Democrats are immediately going to lose in West Virginia with the retirement of Joe Manchin, so that's one Republican pickup right away. Then in Montana, Sen. Jon Tester faces a really tough race. All the

polling shows him down. So that would be two seats right there for Republicans, and that would be a majority.

The question is do they pick up seats in Ohio, which is Sherrod Brown is running there. Then you have Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Not only presidential races but big, big, huge Senate races which are all in the margin of error right now. Like, the poll -- there was a poll out yesterday in Ohio that showed Brown losing. He's been narrowly up but it's a very close race.

I mean, if they -- he -- if they pick up -- if Republicans pick up Ohio, that's 52 for them. That's -- you know, that's --

HUNT: Yeah.

BRESNAHAN: -- a good (audio gap). That's a good night for them.

HUNT: What --

BRESNAHAN: Now, Nebraska is a problem for them. There's an Independent, Dan Osborn, running in Nebraska who is leading or tied with Republican Deb Fischer. If Osborn somehow wins and then he caucuses with Senate Democrats, that's a huge gain for them. That's an enormous win for them.

HUNT: Yeah.

BRESNAHAN: So there's a lot at play. And again, we don't -- you know, Ron was talking about -- your previous guest Ron Brownstein was talking about how does Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin go? And again, there's Senate races there. If Harris were to win those or Trump were to win those, they're very likely -- there's a real good chance those Senate races could follow that way.

So --

HUNT: Yeah.

BRESNAHAN: -- much depends -- it's interacting with the presidential level on the Senate side.

HUNT: Well -- so speaking of that, Bres, one of the things that we have noticed here is just how many of these Democratic Senate candidates are not just kind of distancing themselves from Kamala Harris but, in many cases, trying to show that they would embrace Donald Trump.

I want you to watch. This is a series of ads from some of these states that you just talked about -- watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BOB CASEY FOR SENATE, POLITICAL AD: Casey bucked Biden to protect fracking and he sided with Trump to end NAFTA.

TAMMY BALDWIN FOR SENATE, POLITICAL AD: Tammy Baldwin got President Trump to sign her "Made in America" bill.

JON TESTER FOR SENATE, POLITICAL AD: I'm voting for Jon Tester.

John got over 20 bills signed into law by President Trump.

DUTY AND HONOR, POLITICAL AD: Sherrod Brown is fighting back. He wrote a bill that Donald Trump signed to crack down on drugs at the border.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[05:40:00]

HUNT: So, in Ohio, it's pretty easy to explain. What do you -- but what do you make of that?

BRESNAHAN: Oh, I mean, look, this is reality. They have to save themselves. I mean, Biden was unpopular. He was unpopular. If Biden had been the nominee here there's no question in my mind that this would be a much bigger night for Senate Republicans -- or potentially, a much bigger night for Senate Republicans.

Now, Harris has given them a fighting chance in all these states. I mean, Pennsylvania is probably the one difference where Biden on the ticket would help Casey more than having Harris on the ticket. Even Dave McCormick, the Republican, admitted that to one of our reporters. He said having Biden -- having Harris rather than Biden was a plus for him.

You know, there are some places where they've kind of wrapped their arms a little bit around Harris. Jacky Rosen, in Nevada, has tried to play it both ways. She's tried to play I'm supporting Trump but I also -- she was at a Harris event the other day. So she can't -- you can't run that far -- not nowadays.

But -- and then --

HUNT: Yeah, though she's doing -- she's pretty comfortable. She's more comfortable than these other candidates --

BRESNAHAN: True.

HUNT: -- I will say, in Nevada.

BRESNAHAN: Yeah, exactly.

Gallego -- Ruben Gallego in Arizona was with Harris when she was in Nevada. So there are some of them who are doing it.

But yeah, you're right. They're definitely trying to play -- you know, look, I am bipartisan. I am beyond party. I would -- you know, I would work with whoever is President of the United States.

HUNT: Yeah.

So Bres, let's talk about the House because -- BRESNAHAN: (INAUDIBLE).

HUNT: -- this is one that -- I mean, look, we might not know for weeks --

BRESNAHAN: Yeah.

HUNT: -- depending on how close this is --

BRESNAHAN: Yeah.

HUNT: -- because of some of the races --

BRESNAHAN: Right.

HUNT: -- in California and New York, and kind of the debacle that has been counting in those places in recent election cycles.

BRESNAHAN: Yeah.

HUNT: But, I mean, where is your head? What's your bet? And how are your sources feeling on each side about their chances?

BRESNAHAN: You know, Democrats feel pretty good about it right now. They only have to pick up four seats to take the House. They have several seats up in Clay in New York. There's five seats in play that Republicans won a bunch of them in 2022. It helped give them the majority.

They -- you know, I spent some time with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. He was talking about picking up at least two or three of those seats that are seats they're defending in Pennsylvania. They feel good about it.

There's Don Davis' seat in North Carolina. That's a big race.

But remember, they also pick up -- there are minority and majority districts that they can pick up in Alabama and Louisiana, and those are two that they'll get. And, you know, they're defending in Pennsylvania -- Democrats. They're defending in Michigan. There's a couple of open seats.

So we could know fairly early by tomorrow -- we could know by the end of the night whether or not Democrats will have a -- have a real chance of getting the majority. You know, again, as you noted, there are four or five races in California and California takes -- can take two weeks to -- or more --

HUNT: Yeah.

BRESNAHAN: -- to certify races.

John Dougherty's race in California didn't certify until December in 2022.

So, like, you know, those could take a while. If it comes down to one or two races we could really be on a knife's edge for a while.

HUNT: How do we get that -- to get on that, Bres? I mean, come on. It's like -- it's 2024. Like, let's get with it with the counting, California.

BRESNAHAN: I know. Mail-in voting and -- yeah, and mail-in voting, that's the way they do it. They don't -- you know, they don't -- they don't do the ballots, and they don't start counting it all early. I mean, they have a very -- they have a very longstanding process and that's how they do it in California.

But yeah, it really draws things out. A December -- you know, (INAUDIBLE) has until December. I've got to know what (audio gap).

HUNT: For real.

All right, John Bresnahan. Good luck today. Thank you so much for starting it with us. We really appreciate it.

BRESNAHAN: You, too, Kasie. Have a good night.

HUNT: All right.

BRESNAHAN: Yeah.

HUNT: I'll see you overnight tonight on CNN, so stick with us.

All right. Straight ahead here on this Election Day edition of CNN THIS MORNING, inside the Trump campaign. New reporting on the chaos and confusion staffers have been dealing with since the summer.

Plus, it's finally here. The first polls opened just minutes ago. We're going to go live to the battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JIMMY FALLON, HOST, NBC "THE TONIGHT SHOW STARRING JIMMY FALLON": I saw that 71 percent of the country is expected to vote. People are going to be waiting in line for two-three hours. Then after they check out at the liquor store they're going to go vote.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL)

[05:47:56]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I've known her a long time indirectly, not directly very much. And she was always of Indian heritage, and she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn't know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black. And now she wants to be known as Black. So I don't know. Is she Indian or is she Black? (END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: Once all the votes are counted there are moments from this election that we are likely to look back on as critical turning points. Donald Trump's July appearance with the National Association of Black Journalists could very well be one of them. Trump choosing to question Kamala Harris' racial identity marking a change in strategy from a campaign that had been relatively restrained up to that point.

According to new reporting from The Atlantic's Tim Alberta, in the days after his NABJ appearance Trump began to lose confidence in his team and reportedly was pondering, for the first time, a shake-up craving the fun, freewheeling feel of his first campaign.

What ensued, according to insiders, was a campaign so chaotic and rife with infighting that staffers began to question whether they would even want to work in a second Trump administration. As the chaos began to spill into the open Trump offered this assurance.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I think I'm doing a very calm campaign. I mean, we're here. There's no shouting. Now, you'll say he ranted and raved -- not you, but some of you will say he ranted and raved. I didn't rant and rave. I'm a very calm person.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: Joining us now, the author of that piece, staff writer for The Atlantic, Tim Alberta. Tim, good morning. It's wonderful to see you. Thank you so much for being here.

TIM ALBERTA, STAFF WRITER, THE ATLANTIC (via Webex by Cisco): Hi, Kasie. It is good to see you. Happy Election Day.

HUNT: Happy Election Day, indeed.

This is quite a piece coming, obviously, at this critical moment right before the voters finally get to decide. You write in this piece that one of the things that led to all of this chaos was the return of Trump's former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski who, of course, played a big role in 2016.

[05:50:00]

This is what you write. "His arrival (Lewandowski's) coincided with a marked shift in Trump's mood and behavior. Gone, suddenly, was the candidate of 2024 who despite all the inevitable outbursts was at least receptive to direction and aware of consequences; in his place, as the summer progressed, was the alter ego of 2016, the candidate who did and said whatever he wanted and ignored anyone who sought to rein him in."

If Trump does go on to lose today, do you think it's going to be because of what shifted here in this moment? ALBERTA: Well, Kasie, I think that's the question that a lot of people close to him are already asking. And to be clear, he could very well win in spite of all of this. Everything that I've written about this sort of crazy stretch here of the past 2 1/2 or so months where Trump has really, at times, just sort of gone entirely through the guardrails that were set up around him and has turned this campaign into something kind of unrecognizable to the people who had constructed it.

And despite all of that, he could win, right? But if, in fact, he loses the fear that a lot of his advisers, his aides have is that they had put him in a position to win. They had done everything that they needed to do to outperform even just by a sort of marginal 10 percent or so -- outperform where he was in 2020.

And that would have been enough except for the fact that down the home stretch of this race he ultimately just got impatient, and he got fed up, and he was no longer willing to sort of play by the rules more or less that they had put into place for this campaign.

HUNT: It's just remarkable how, you know, if you lose sight of the humanity of the person -- of the candidate themselves and how that drives all of this decision-making you really lose sight of what's actually going on. It's pretty remarkable.

Tim, I also want to ask you about this -- what you wrote about the people that work for him. You said, "The homestretch of the campaign hasn't just been hard and stressful, it's been disillusioning. Several campaign officials told me throughout the spring and summer how excited they were about working in the next Trump White House.

But now those same people were saying they'd had a change of heart. The past three months have been the most unpleasant of their careers. Win or lose, they said, they were done with the chaos of Donald Trump even if the nation was not."

What does it say to you that some of these people don't seem to want to continue working for him? I mean, will they vote for him?

ALBERTA: Listen, Kasie, I can't speculate on whether they'll vote for him or not. I know from talking with some folks just in the last 72 hours that several of the people who work for Donald Trump are sort of indifferent at this point. Like, just get this over with. And you can tell that they don't particularly care what the outcome is.

And by the way, lest anybody be surprised by that. I know that obviously some people are reacting to that with the kind of bulging eye emoji, but this is not new. I mean, this fits - this fits with the pattern of what we've seen.

Basically everyone who has worked for Trump, going back to his 2016 campaign and his presidency, of course -- by the end there were a whole bunch of people who were jumping ship and saying enough is enough. I can't do it anymore.

What we see pretty consistently, Kasie, is that this kind of collective amnesia tends to set in for folks and they go back, or they enter for the first time thinking that it will be different, but it never winds up being different. I mean, working for Donald Trump in politics is sort of an elaborate Groundhog Day skit where folks continue to think that they can change the man, but he doesn't change. And in some cases, he changes them.

But at the end of the day, Donald Trump is Donald Trump is Donald Trump. And this exasperation that we're seeing from some of his aides in the eleventh hour here would be sort of -- would be novel except that it's entirely predictable and we've seen it before.

HUNT: Novel, except entirely not. And yes, as someone who was here covering the entire Trump administration your point is extraordinarily well taken. And if, in fact, he does win, I am interested to see how they are going to staff an administration because it is sure going to look a lot different than it did last time around.

Tim Alberta -- Tim, so grateful to have you. Thank you so much for starting your Election Day with us.

ALBERTA: You're welcome, Kasie. Thank you.

HUNT: All right. See you soon, I hope.

Still ahead here on CNN THIS MORNING, in just minutes, more polling sites open across the East Coast, including in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia. The first results are also in from Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. Their midnight vote, a dead heat. That's a switch from 2020.

Plus, the candidates making their closing arguments to voters. It's the end of an unprecedented campaign.

[05:55:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: From the beginning ours has not been a fight against something, it has been a fight for something.

TRUMP: Kamala is -- I mean, this is known. She's a very low I.Q. person and we don't need a low I.Q. individual.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL)

HUNT: It's Tuesday, November 5, Election Day. Right now on this special edition of CNN THIS MORNING decision day in America. Polls open across the East Coast and the very first votes have already been cast.

Plus --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) HARRIS: Are we ready to fight for it?

TRUMP: I've been waiting four years for this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: The wait is over, right? By this time tomorrow we could know which of these two will be the next president or not.

And --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OPRAH WINFREY, HARRIS SUPPORTER: We don't get to sit this one out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: Star power. Kamala Harris counting on Oprah and other celebrities to push her over the finish line in the final hours.

Also, Donald Trump's one-time primary opponent now an outspoken supporter. Vivek Ramaswamy joins us live on this Election Day 2024.