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CNN Live Event/Special

Polls Open In Multiple States In Historic Presidential Election; FBI Sets Up Command Post In D.C. To Monitor Election-Related Threats; Voters In The Midwest Face Rain And Storm Warnings. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired November 05, 2024 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:33:47]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, you are looking at live pictures from a voting site in Manchester, New Hampshire. I believe I was at that very voting site for the New Hampshire primaries -- gosh, I can't remember back that far -- back in the winter.

Here we are on Election Day. New Hampshire casting its ballots this morning. The last Republican to win in New Hampshire was George W. Bush in 2000. It's been a fairly safe Democratic state ever since, though the margins can be tight.

All right. As we approach the poll closings tonight, I want to give you kind of a guide of what to watch based on the times the polls close in the key swing states. This is the map right now basically nothing. I want to go back to 2020, a race that Joe Biden won, to give you a sense of how things might shape up.

Georgia -- the polls close at 7:00. It was razor-thing here for four years. Joe Biden won, but barely.

One county I want to watch tonight is Fayette County. This is just outside Atlanta. This is one of those counties that's been trending Democratic. You can see Donald Trump won it, but by about seven points four years ago. In 2016, he won it by about 20 points.

[07:35:00]

So it's been moving towards the Democrats' column. Will it continue to move that way? Watch early. If it moves toward Harris, it might be a good sign for her. If Trump is able to spread his lead out again, it might be a sign things are trending his way.

North Carolina -- the polls close at 7:30. This was a state that Donald Trump won in 2020, but by the smallest margin. He's been there four times in the last few days so they're playing a little bit of defense there.

One county I'm watching in North Carolina is Nash County. Now, this is a county that Joe Biden won four years ago even though he lost the state. He won it by 120 votes. It's pretty close there. Four years before that you can see Donald Trump won Nash County when he won the state, and he won it by, oh, less than 100 votes. So as goes Nash County maybe we can get a sense of where things are going over the course of the night.

Pennsylvania, kind of the Rose Bowl of primary states -- the granddaddy of them all. We're all watching Pennsylvania so closely. Joe Biden won by 80,000 votes in 2020. Trump won by about 40,000 in 2016.

Erie County -- Erie County is a county that Joe Biden won by 2,000 votes in 2020. You guessed it. Donald Trump won by about 2,000 votes in 2016. So it is something of a swing county. It could tell us where things are headed. But if you're looking for Erie County to get a sense of how the night is going you might have to wait.

I want to remind you about how Pennsylvania went four years ago. The polls closed at 8:00. You can see that about 10:00 in Erie, Donald Trump was actually taking the lead in the poll count. It wasn't until -- it wasn't until all the way Friday morning -- it was Friday morning of election week when Joe Biden went ahead in Erie and stayed ahead there. Ultimately, we called Pennsylvania for Joe Biden on Saturday.

So Erie County is a bellwether, but it might be a late breaking bellwether.

Finally, I want to talk to you about Wisconsin very quickly. The polls close there at 9:00.

One county that's something of a bellwether there is Door County. You can see Joe Biden won in Door County. He won Wisconsin. He won by about, oh, less than 300 votes. Four years before when Donald Trump won Door County, he won by less than 500 votes. So it could give you a sense of what's happening in Wisconsin if you're willing to stay up all night.

Let's go now to Wisconsin. Our very own Sara Sidner is there. Hello, friend.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: I am certainly willing to stay up all night because it's election night. It's Election Day in America. So, of course, we are excited about being here.

I am in the idyllic picturesque town of Cedarburg, Wisconsin. It is one of the blue wall states, of course, that we are watching this morning, along with Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump won those in 2016, then Biden flipped them in 2020.

Joining me now is Tracie Sette who is the city clerk of Cedarburg. Thank you so much. I know that you always say I'm used to being behind the scenes. But you have good information so we're coming to you.

Can you give me a sense of what will happen here in this gym? This is the only place in Cedarburg that people are going to be voting in person, correct?

TRACIE SETTE, CITY CLERK, CEDARBURG, WISCONSIN: Yes, that is correct, yeah. This is our one polling location for the entire city.

SIDNER: OK, what happens? They come in and --

SETTE: So they -- the flow of it is that they come in through the front doors. They will check in at one of our electronic poll books. They will get a number -- a voter number and it will include their ward number, which then they will take to one of these tables and that's where they get their ballot. And then they go to one of the booths, they vote their ballot, and then they put in a machine, which is right behind you there. And then they exit here. So that's kind of the flow.

SIDNER: It's a flow to get people in and out as fast as possible.

Can you give me some sense of exactly how you get the votes to where they need to go to be finally counted and get an official count? There's a lot of fodder out there. There's a lot of conspiracy theories. How does it work? It's a pretty, sort of, very secure thing that you do.

SETTE: It is. I think in Wisconsin we are somewhat unique because it all happens right here. So we have -- we have all the people voting in person that put their ballots in the machines. And we have an entire team of absentee people that just process the absentees. They'll be doing that probably all day. My goal is that we have it all finished by the time 8:00 comes around. And those ballots are getting put in the same machines. So it all happens here.

SIDNER: The counting happens here and then that is sent on to the county -- the county -- and then it goes up and up and up.

Let me ask you about the difference between 2020 and 2024. What are you seeing as far the numbers of people voting?

SETTE: Oh, it's really interesting. Well, Cedarburg in general has always had a really high turnout for November elections. Like, 90-ish percent.

SIDNER: Incredible.

SETTE: So that's not surprising.

But the absentee rate is somewhat surprising because in 2020 we saw, like, about a 65 percent turnout in absentees and we're seeing close to those numbers again in this election. But in 2020, there were more mailed ballots and in 2024 there's more people absenteeing in person.

[07:40:10]

But in the end, it's still about the same absentee numbers. So it's kind of interesting.

SIDNER: A huge number of people vote. It makes me very happy to see that.

Also what makes me very happy is that you came here with us this morning and you're wearing your sparkly Americana earrings. I really appreciate that. Thank you, Tracie Sette. I really appreciate your time this morning.

And back to you, John. That's how things are going to work here in Cedarburg, Wisconsin and across the state.

BERMAN: You make sure of that. All right, Sara Sidner in Cedarburg, Wisconsin. Thank you very much.

With us now, Republican strategist and former Marco Rubio presidential campaign manager, Terry Sullivan; the political anchor for Spectrum News, Errol Louis; former communications director for Vice President Harris, Jamal Simmons; and CNN political commentator S.E. Cupp.

You can see how excited I am. I'm slurring already and I haven't even had a drink as far as any of you know.

JAMAL SIMMONS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR FOR VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS: What's in that coffee cup?

S.E. CUPP, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, HOST, "BATTLEGROUND": It's not even 8:00 a.m., John.

BERMAN: There's no feeling -- I mean, it gets to the issue here, which is there's no feeling like election morning --

CUPP: Yeah.

BERMAN: -- when really, you know, any tweet you make, any analysis you give here could decide the whole election, right?

(LAUGHTER)

BERMAN: You know, actually, I want to hit that point very quickly to both the political professionals, Jamal and Terry. Terry, first to you. Really, how helpless of a feeling is it on the morning of an election like this?

TERRY SULLIVAN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST, FORMER MARCO RUBIO PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Oh, it's awful. Now my tradition used to be on election days when I ran campaigns was to go get a haircut the day of the -- but it's been a few years since I -- so -- but no.

Look, it's a -- you know, there is an important get out the vote component to it for the field teams. But if you're in communications, if you're managing the campaign, it's an awful day and it's super long.

BERMAN: Jamal?

SIMMONS: Oh, he's absolutely right. I mean, there's nothing worse than being a press guy in the middle of an election day because there are no stories that matter.

Maybe there used to be in the old days -- that midday lunch stories. You'd go out to one of the places like where Sara is right now and you'd kind of facilitate a watch so everybody can see what's happening. And after that you're just sitting around and, like, going to the movies waiting for something to happen because something might happen, but usually nothing does.

BERMAN: All right. Now that we've cleared that up -- how awkward we all feel right now -- let's talk about the one major thing you are looking for. S.E.?

CUPP: Well, it's one thing. It's ghost voters. We know where all the base voters are for both of these candidates but there are pockets of ghost voters for both.

Mainland Puerto Rican residents who almost never vote typically -- historically -- will they come out for Kamala Harris in the wake of that MSG rally? We don't know.

Kamala Harris has a number of young, college-aged women who have expressed enthusiasm for her and have never voted before. You can never trust if college kids are going to come out. We don't know.

There are pockets in Pennsylvania in steel towns like Redding and Allentown where Hispanic men have been indicating they plan to vote for Trump. Will they?

So these are the X-factor unknown voters that we can't really poll, and we won't know until they actually go ahead and do the thing what's going to happen.

BERMAN: Errol?

ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, POLITICAL ANCHOR, SPECTRUM NEWS: Yeah. The question is who shows up, right?

CUPP: Yeah.

LOUIS: I thought the most interesting thing about that final poll out of Iowa is that it showed that women, especially older women -- women over 50 seem to be breaking towards Kamala Harris. If that's true as a trend, either in the Midwest or even nationwide, then I think a large national narrative starts to take shape about this being the first national election since Roe versus Wade was overturned.

Anybody who is over 60, for sure, and maybe 50 would remember that Roe versus Wade was important and that there was an era before it, and that your relatives lived through it. And if this was the first chance to weigh in on that at a -- at a voting booth for millions and millions of women, is this going to be their verdict on that decision? The polls suggest that it might be.

BERMAN: Jamal?

SIMMONS: Yeah, so a couple of things.

First of all, I want to see how many women are voting -- what's the spread between women and men. Kamala Harris is overperforming with women. If we see a 10-point spread between the number of women who vote and the number of men -- nine-10, which is what it was before -- she should be OK.

Secondly, I look at the city of Detroit, the place where I'm from. In Detroit, they're looking at 50-52 percent voter turnout in order for her to be competitive in the state. They're looking at 55 minimum. If they get closer to 60 it's pretty much a wrap for the state.

The same thing in Philadelphia. Five hundred thousand net votes out of Philadelphia will get her competitive. They get over 500-550, she's probably a wrap in Pennsylvania.

BERMAN: Terry?

SULLIVAN: Yeah. Look, I think as the -- as the night starts the first thing you're going to start getting in are these East Coast numbers in states like North Carolina and Georgia, and those will come in first. And what we see happens there will kind of be a predictor.

Trump should win them. He's favored to win them. The question is the margins. So if he just eeks out a win or doesn't win one of those it is going to be a bad night for Trump. If he wins those comfortably -- three-four points -- it could be a very bad night for Kamala Harris.

And so we -- that's going to be the first indicator of the night.

BERMAN: Yeah. You know, the problem has been that Georgia and North Carolina we didn't call until after we actually called the presidential race four years ago. At least in Georgia we have a sense they're going to county more quickly this time. We're going to have to see.

[07:45:00]

Errol, events in the last week, all right? As we've had this runup to the election anything that you can point to that you think mattered?

LOUIS: Maybe that horrible rally at Madison Square Garden where all of those disparaging remarks about Latinos were made. And just the overall crude, kind of obscene comments that were made from the podium might have made an impact only because we know that across multiple platforms, including digital platforms, a lot of Latino community activists were really just red hot even before that night was over. And it was in key swing states like Pennsylvania, and Florida, and Georgia that those kind of votes can make a big difference.

CUPP: Um-hum.

BERMAN: S.E.?

CUPP: Um, what was the question?

BERMAN: The question is -- the question is something that mattered at the end --

CUPP: Yeah.

BERMAN: -- or -- and/or who has had a better closing. CUPP: Well, I think Errol is right. That rally could be determinative. Another year, maybe not, but it's so tight it could actually make a difference.

But I've been telling people as of the past week, 75 million Americans have already voted. That's a third of the voting population. The rest who plan to will come out today.

I know everyone's anxious. It's over. Relax. Nothing you can do about it now. Go vote, but nothing you can do about it.

And that goes for the campaigns, too. I really think in the closing days unless some Dias Ex Machina event had happened --

SIMMONS: Ooh.

CUPP: -- it is baked. It is in. They've done all they can do.

And I really think in the last few weeks, Trump kind of decided moderates, Independents, I'm not getting any more. I'm just going to run to the base.

So it's been -- I think it's been decided for some time.

SIMMONS: Yeah. I think that's -- that last point for me is really right. It's maybe not one individual thing other than the Madison Square Garden rally -- it is a big thing -- it's the collective spirit of what's been happening in the last week or two.

Collectively, I think Donald Trump is making Kamala Harris' argument. He's going dark. He's going fearful. She's going big, fun, and hopeful, right? So that's the choice.

And frankly, this is the most stark choice between two presidential candidates I've seen in my entire lifetime demographically, geographically. They're from opposite coasts. And how they're running their campaigns. Again, his is full of fear and trying to anger everybody. Hers is trying to bring everybody together into a big tent.

BERMAN: Terry?

SULLIVAN: You know, I look at these campaigns and you've got to remember all the data that we have, they've got more. They've got better data than we have -- both campaigns. So I watch what they're doing.

And it's interesting that -- you're right. Trump has become from what was a very discipline campaign for most of the cycle --

CUPP: Yeah.

SULLIVAN: -- by Trump's standards. This last week or two he's become very undisciplined. That could mean a sign of confidence. We don't know but --

BERMAN: Yeah. SULLIVAN: -- it's -- he is not --

SIMMONS: Or he's scared.

SULLIVAN: But --

CUPP: Or he's given up on those voters, right?

SULLIVAN: Right. Well, or -- but the other point is where they're traveling. And he traveled to Virginia and New Mexico this week. That is either insane or, you know, they're looking to really run the score up.

LOUIS: And very important, he passed up an invitation to be at the Penn State-Ohio State game.

SIMMONS: Right.

LOUIS: And the stadium that seats 100,000 people in Pennsylvania. He didn't go to Happy Valley.

SULLIVAN: Yeah, but people don't go to those games to see political candidates, so that might be a --

SIMMONS: Well, yeah, fair enough. But, you know, I mean, he --

BERMAN: He does. He goes to the games.

SULLIVAN: Yeah, exactly.

CUPP: Yeah.

LOUIS: Randomly, you could get -- out of a crowd of --

BERMAN: Yeah.

LOUIS: -- 100,000 you could pick up a few thousand votes.

BERMAN: And look, I mean, he also went to North Carolina four times --

SULLIVAN: Yeah.

BERMAN: -- in the closing days, which --

CUPP: Yeah.

BERMAN: -- which indicates that they do see a need to play some defense there.

SULLIVAN: Yeah.

BERMAN: And North Carolina is defense --

LOUIS: Right.

BERMAN: -- for the Trump campaign.

And what I -- what I get from all of you is that there really are two competing theories of this case here, and we're going to find out which one is right. I mean, is Donald Trump right that this election is going to come down to young men, maybe, or the male vote, or is the Harris campaign right -- and this is a bet they've made in the whatever 100 days she was actually running -- that it's suburban women and maybe disaffected Republicans.

LOUIS: Yeah. She even went all the way and fairly early on and closed out with Liz Cheney for exactly that reason. That's somewhat risky for a Democrat. I mean, they have been disappointed by trying to get suburban women, you know. Look at 2016.

SIMMONS: Although it's not as risky as it has been in the past because what we saw after Dobbs is that there was a big rush of women to anti-MAGA position. The pro-abortion rights position. That happened in referenda in states as far Kansas and it happened in elections like the midterms.

CUPP: But Trump seemed to write off the suburban, woman, disaffected Republican AKA S.E. Cupp. He told Nikki Haley and Nikki Haley voters we don't want you. We don't want your vote. He could have -- he could have chosen Nikki Haley. He could have made specific overtures to the very voting demographic that is left that he needs. And instead, he held rallies the likes of which repel those very voters.

BERMAN: S.E., Jamal, Errol, Terry, thank you very much. In closing, I think we all agree it will all come down to turnout -- Kate.

CUPP: Yeah, wise.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Captain Obvious. We will get back to you very soon.

[07:50:00]

So, protecting democracy on Election Day. We have new information on how the FBI is keeping a close eye on election-related threats.

And also weather. We know weather can be a real factor when it comes to Election Day and voter turnout. How a cold front and storms could affect the trip to the polls for some. We have your Election Day forecast.

We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: All right, you're looking at live pictures from Fulton County, Georgia. That is Atlanta, Georgia of course. Very close four years ago. Considered a swing state this time around. Polls close there at 7:00. If you live in the greater Atlanta metroplex you still have time to vote. You can see there doesn't appear to be lines there right now. Get out and go cast your vote. In the meantime, happening now, a Georgia poll worker has been charged with sending a bomb threat to his county election office. The Department of Justice says the 26-year-old pretended to be a voter in a letter that warned his fellow election workers to "watch every move they make and look over their shoulder" and ended with "P.S. boom toy in early vote place, cigar burning, be safe." Hmm.

[07:55:10]

The FBI is investigating the case. They have also set up a national command post to monitor and respond to election-related threats.

CNN chief law enforcement and intelligence analyst John Miller is with us right now. Tell us about this command post. What does it do?

JOHN MILLER, CNN CHIEF LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: So this command post has been in operation before in other elections. It's actually located in SIOC, which is the FBI's Strategic Information and Operation Center. It's where they run every crisis and keep their thumb on the pulse of ongoing events.

But in this case, they've sectioned off a large piece of it and that is for election only. So what you've got in there is you've got the U.S. Secret Service, you've got the FBI Criminal Division, Counterintelligence Division for actions by other countries, Counterterrorism Division by something that could be spinning up here. Dozens of -- a dozen agencies with dozens of people -- about 80 per shift, 24/7 going at least through the end of the week and then longer if it has to.

BERMAN: And as you said, it's been in place before. A sense that this time maybe their efforts are at a higher level?

MILLER: So, definitely. And why? A couple of things.

One, I think they learned some lessons from January 6 about underestimating some of the dynamics around the passions and political divide in the country. But also, if you look at the leadup to this what do we have, you know?

In October, we had an individual who said he was inspired by ISIS who, with another, was going to shoot up Election Day locations out in the Midwest. And this was straight up terrorism without picking a side.

You've got the individual in Australia who was a registered Russian agent who was doing deep fakes of Haitian immigrants illegally voting on video through right-wing posters.

You've got the plot -- what was it -- yesterday by an individual in Tennessee to attempt to blow up the power grid with explosive-laden drones.

So you see around the election, adjacent to the election, foreign espionage interference. Chat rooms full of threats to send armed people to polling locations. Terrorist plots. It's a lot going on.

BERMAN: And you mentioned January 6. How does, sort of, wanting to make sure that doesn't happen again factor in?

MILLER: So the knock on the FBI, the Secret Service, DHS, fair or not, around January 6 was they had all the intelligence that there was going to be disorder and that it could be large before the storming of the Capitol and a) they didn't share it widely enough, and b) they weren't prepared enough because they didn't consider as credible as it was.

So in this case, they're learning way forward. Way more people in this command center this time around, a larger number of agencies, more FBI components in there on the idea that we've got to be able to respond immediately. But more important, this is a national effort. So when the intel comes in, if it's actionable, get it to the field office and to the state and local police and law enforcement people and get them on top of it right away.

BERMAN: Hopefully, they won't be necessary but good to have them there.

John Miller, thank you very much -- Kate.

BOLDUAN: So the weather on Election Day can have a real impact on voter turnout, especially when you're talking about some critical battleground states.

Let's go over to CNN's Derek Van Dam who is tracking all of this for you. Derek, I know the forecast here in Philadelphia -- well, in Bucks County.

DEREK VAN DAM, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Yeah.

BOLDUAN: It's a little foggy now but I'm told by very good sources it's going to be a beautiful day. But what are you watching?

VAN DAM: Yeah, that -- there's a couple of curveballs out there this morning that we're watching, mainly this low deck of cloud that's providing you the fog northeast of Philadelphia. But that's not the major story because in your swing state things are looking pretty decent all in all, especially later this afternoon.

It's here across the nation's midsection, the Upper Midwest, and into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This area is getting pummeled by heavy rainfall right now. So the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, it's going to be a wet drive to the polls and could be a wet Election Day line if you have to stand outside. Here in Grand Rapids, Michigan you can see the weather forecast looks pretty showery through the course of the day.

And then I want to draw your attention to this constant band of rain that's falling over St. Louis. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a flash flood warning. That has extended some of the most rainiest days in November history, actually today and yesterday, falling in St. Louis. There are reports of some localized flash flooding on the roads in and around the metropolitan there. So take care if you're traveling to the polls this morning. That cold front advances eastward but notice it doesn't make it all the way to the East Coast. So we're kind of sandwiched in between some nice weather on the West Coast and the East Coast, including Philadelphia, where that low bank of clouds and fog will dissipate.

We'll see some sunshine also into the battleground state of Georgia near Atlanta in Fulton County. We should start to see the sun peek out throughout the course of the day today.