Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Live Event/Special
Crucial Battlegrounds Of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Too Early To Call; CNN Covers 2024 Presidential Election; Republican Incumbent Ted Cruz Wins Re-Election. Aired 10-11p ET
Aired November 05, 2024 - 22:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The President was at 69 percent. It sounds like not a big deal. 67. 69. Let's see.
[22:00:00]
Right now, we're only at 48 percent of the vote. If at the end of the night, she's underperforming the president in Milwaukee by a couple points, that can make the difference in a state, Jake, that in two elections in a row has been decided by 20,000 votes. Jake?
JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: That's right, John. And we're just moments away from another round of poll closings. Voting is about to end in three states, including the key battleground of Nevada. A total of 16 electoral votes are on the line right now.
And CNN can project that Donald Trump will win the state of Montana. As expected, Trump gets Montana with its four electoral votes. CNN can also project that Donald Trump will win the state of Utah, as expected, Utah with its six electoral votes. Nevada is too early to call, a battleground state that Donald Trump has narrowly lost in the last two elections, but it's making a big play for this election.
Let's look at the electoral math right now. Donald Trump has 172 electoral votes, Kamala Harris with 81 electoral votes. 270 electoral votes needed to win. Neither of them is there yet.
Let's look at the key races now, Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris, 49. 9 percent of the vote. Donald Trump has narrowed her 20,000-plus vote lead. He's at 49.2 percent of the vote. More votes have come in from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, 43 percent of the estimated vote from Pennsylvania's in and Kamala Harris right now is an 18,000-plus vote lead there.
Kamala Harris in the lead in Michigan, 51.6 percent of the vote, Donald Trump has 46.5 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris with a 46,000-plus vote lead, still only 16 percent of the estimated vote in Michigan has been counted.
In battleground Wisconsin, Harris is at 49.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump is at 48.4 percent of the vote. She has a 15,000-plus vote lead. That's with more than a third, 35 percent of the vote counted in Wisconsin. In battleground North Carolina, Donald Trump maintaining his lead. He has 52 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris is 46.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a 196,000-plus vote lead, that is with two thirds, 66 percent of the estimated vote in North Carolina counted.
In battleground Georgia, Donald Trump maintaining his lead, 51.9 percent of the vote, Kamala Harris, 47.1 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a 208,000-plus vote lead. That's with 79 percent of the estimated vote in from the battleground state of Georgia.
We're now getting an update on the vote in North Carolina. Let's go to John King, actually, right now. John King, what can you tell us?
KING: Well, Jake, you see the map. And, again, as we get later in the night, this is where you start to see things change, especially if a candidate pulls out ahead in a state that not normally is in their lane, if you will. And by that, I'm going to refer you for Iowa. Just a moment ago, I was showing you Iowa with the vice president ahead, still competitive, but you see Iowa is now red. There was that late Iowa poll that showed the possibility of the vice president maybe being a little bit ahead of Donald Trump. No clear leader, it was a competitive poll and this is a competitive race at the moment, 36 percent.
This would be a surprise, right? We said Virginia's a surprise at how close it is. We'll see if it ends close, but it's a surprise at the moment. This is a surprise as well. Donald Trump just 3,800 votes ahead in battleground Iowa, a state he carried quite comfortably by nine points, eight points four years ago. So, you keep an eye on it and you watch and you see what happens there. But it's interesting on this night.
Now, let's move over to the battlegrounds that matter at the moment. The blue wall states still being held by the vice president, the Sun Belt states, as we start to move west, North Carolina and Georgia, the two battlegrounds we care most about, they are at the moment held by the former president of the United States. Again, this was his closest battleground win in terms of Biden was the closest to him back in 2020. It was 74,000 votes. He's just under 200,000 votes right now, 66 percent reporting, the former president at 52 percent of the vote.
And, again, Jake, as you come over and join me here, just let's remind our viewers still votes to be counted. We know that. So, then we want to use our technology to say, where are they? All right, where are they? And you see the bigger the circle means the more live outstanding votes. And the color tells you what's happening there. And at the moment, doesn't mean it will continue to be that way, you see Mecklenburg County, that's Charlotte in the suburbs. You see over here in the Raleigh-Durham area, Winston-Salem area, a little bit out of Ashville. So, more votes to be counted out there, but Donald Trump at the moment with a pretty healthy lead.
TAPPER: And, you know, we have one of our excellent journalists is in Charlotte, is in the Mecklenburg County, Brianna Keilar is at the board of elections in Charlotte. Brianna, what can you tell us? BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, that's right. So at this point, Jake, about 100,000 ballots are in out of several hundreds of thousands of ballots. And that really could change any moment because we are expecting about 420,000 to 430,000 votes, which would have been early in-person votes to have been closed out and posted here to the State Board of Elections. So, we could be seeing that literally any moment.
But what we see right now is a picture of a fraction of this key county.
[22:05:02]
It's about 34,000 absentee ballots that were received before 5:00 P.M. yesterday, and it's also an upload of about 70, 000 Election Day ballots from today.
And you see right behind me, you see that red satchel right there, that is really the key here. These are being delivered by car. We're almost in sort of what is a drive through situation here outside of the building of the Board of Elections here in the county, and these are delivered. These flash drives, they go inside through a very strenuous process, ultimately are uploaded to a computer that has never, ever touched the internet, and then that is compiled and ultimately posted to the State Board of Elections, Jake.
TAPPER: All right, Brianna Keilar in Charlotte.
Let's get more on North Carolina from Pamela Brown, who's at the voting desk. Pamela, what can you tell us?
PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, I'm just getting off the phone with an official in North Carolina there. This official says, look, first and foremost, it's going to take some more time to get results from across North Carolina, a hundred counties. He said that this is going to be close. It's going to take some time. There are counties that haven't reported yet that are red and there are counties that haven't reported yet that are blue.
So, let's dive a little bit more into the numbers. We have Wake County. This is the most populous county in North Carolina. It's right here. I am told, so far, more than 510,000 votes have been reported. That's according to the state's dashboard. So, for context on that, there's 830,099 registered voters, so that's the most. It's likely going to be a lower number in the end. So, they're actually making some headway there.
But over here in Mecklenburg, the home to Charlotte, they're having a log jam uploading the numbers to their site, I'm told so far, and things are moving quickly, so this could change. But just a second ago before I came on air, there were more than 84,000 votes reported so far. And for perspective, there's 857,354 registered voters in Mecklenburg.
So, that's a very small fraction at last check that that we're seeing bear out and the results there, and, again, because they're having issues uploading on their site, which is bound to happen. And, again, that state official there in the Tar Heel state telling me that, again, be patient, it's going to take some time.
TAPPER: All right, Pamela. Thanks so much.
John King, North Carolina, a lot of people thought that we would know pretty quickly this election season who won, but I'm not sure that we're going to know before midnight, at least.
KING: It's defined pretty quickly, right? Compared to 2020, it could be pretty quickly. We're at 10:00 hour. You're right. So, you see, these states thought they'd learned a lot of lessons in 2020. Fewer mail-in votes this time around, so, they thought it'd be faster. But human things happen. You see the officials all out there watching this.
Brianna made a very key point. It's so sad that we have to make it. But that these voting machines are not connected to the internet. There's all these conspiracy theories that people are hacking into voting machines. The people who count our votes, whether they're Democrats, Republicans, agnostic, they do a good job in all the states, and North Carolina is one of the best.
So, where are we, is the question, 213,000 vote lead. And it's what Pam just laid out and Bri just laid out. Bri is here, Brianna is here, Mecklenburg County, 10 percent of the population, the largest of the 100 counties in North Carolina, so we have a long way to go, right?
So, you can the Democrat come back is the question, right? You see that healthy Donald Trump lead. So, your question is, can the Democrat come back? Well, the Vice President's at 65,000 votes there and a little bit of change. Okay. Mecklenburg County, the winner of Mecklenburg County is going to be over 300,000, close to 400,000 votes. So, we have a very long way to go in Mecklenburg County.
TAPPER: So, the point you're making here is Joe Biden pocketed a net of about 200,000 votes last time.
KING: Last time, a net of about 200,000 votes, exactly the way to do the math. And we see right now, you know, we're just -- we're waiting for a whole lot of votes, right?
And so she's at 61 percent and he was at 67 percent. If it ends up that way, Donald Trump's going to win North Carolina.
You know, but there's that giant number of votes left out, so the vice president's percentage, remember the president's 67, does she get closer to 67, number one, and then, number two, what's the raw math in the margin, right? If she's below Biden's number, that means Donald Trump's again doing a little bit better. It might only be a little bit, but a little bit, a big deal in a battleground state in the suburbs, or maybe it's with black voters in Charlotte. We'll have to see how that plays out. That's the biggest County.
Pam noted, Wake County is your number two. And, again, here, we're higher. We're at 76 percent. So, she's at 64 percent. Remember, Joe Biden lost North Carolina only by 75,000 votes, but he lost. So, you're trying to figure out how do you match that up. So, you come back here and, again, not a lot. You see the -- its turn up might be up a little bit. So maybe the winner of the county gets a little bit more than that. But you see him at 393 and, more importantly, at 62 percent of the vote, and then you come here. So she was a little behind, the president, in Mecklenburg County, which is the largest. So, you don't want to be behind it where the most votes are. She's a little bit ahead of the president in Wake County and we're waiting for that out.
And that's one of the challenges, right? We compare her to Biden because that's the last election. Every candidate has their own coalition, right? And so if she's doing a little worse than him with some voters, can she make it up somewhere else?
[22:10:00]
Or is Donald Trump, you know, matching his numbers and do that?
If you want, you can look at it this way if you want. Let's just come out and bring this in here. Where is Harris overperforming Biden in the state, right? So, this will slide away in just a second. She's only overperforming Biden in the state in a very small number of counties, one, two, three, four, right? And so, you know, does that mean she's going to lose North Carolina? No. it just means that she's -- you know, we have to wait to see those votes.
And then you can flip the question, right? How about Trump? Is Trump overperforming Trump in 2020? In a lot more places at the moment, at the moment. Key to that is in these blue areas, in Mecklenburg County, which we just noted. That's where the most votes are in the state. In the biggest of the 100 counties, population-wise, vote count-wise is right there, and Donald Trump's overperforming his 2020 performance at the moment. Remember how many votes are still out. At the moment, he's overperforming, and he is overperforming here in the Fayetteville area.
If Donald Trump over performs in the urban areas where you have an African-American population and then the close in suburbs, then Donald Trump's in better shape now that he was then. I just want to remind people as we close this out, though, that I said he's overperforming here at the moment, we only have 18 percent of the vote. So, let's see if it holds up, and I said he was overperforming here at the moment, we only have 21 percent of the vote. So, let's see if it holds up.
TAPPER: Again, with all the caveats you just said, that this is early, we don't know, but if that were to hold, an explanation of it can come in what we've heard from both campaigns is that Donald Trump is doing a little bit better with African-Americans, especially African- American men than he did last time, and that Kamala Harris is over performing with white suburban women, which you would have in Raleigh.
KING: Yes. So, that's what we're trying -- this is why I spent 15 months traveling, right? Where is she, where's the addition, where can you perform better? And for Donald Trump, since he's the constant, he was on 2016 and 2020, for Donald Trump, he had two goals. Number one, keep your base. In 2020, Donald Trump got more votes than he did in 2016, almost everywhere, right? His base came out. Where he suffered was in the suburbs because there was higher Democratic turnout. So, if you're Donald Trump, yes, you want to pick up as many black votes and Latino votes as you can, and you want to improve your standing in the suburbs, and that includes women. It includes women.
Donald Trump spent -- Republicans are ripping their hair out the last week of the campaign every day watching Donald Trump insult women. You know, pick your day. It was Nancy Pelosi one day. It was the vice president of the United States every day. It was women writ large some of those days. Republican strategists were ripping their hair out, because they know if Donald Trump improves his standing in the suburbs, you know, literally, by half a point, then he's the next president of the United States. And they're ripping their hair out. But as you watch through this, as we go through it, we'll see how it performs out. I just want to keep checking here. 213,000 votes, but we're still here.
So, mathematically, you do it this way. The big question is, are there enough votes out there for the candidate who's losing to catch up?
TAPPER: A lot of blue.
KING: The answer is, yes, there are enough votes out there for the candidate who's losing, the vice president, to catch up. That doesn't mean she will. It doesn't mean she will. It just comes down to, as we get more votes in those places where I said Trump was overperforming, if he continues to overperform, especially in Mecklenburg County, that's good math for him. But we have a ways to go in county.
And that's just North Carolina. Let's go down to the biggest surprise. That was a tight -- that was very tight. The Democrats have -- every election cycle, they say, why can't we get North Carolina? But this was the big surprise when it flipped. Again, here, you know, can we just do this for a second real quick? Let's go back up -- sorry my bad. We got to come out of this and come back here. Remember that, 204,000 votes.
TAPPER: 204,000.
KING: Let's go back to 2020, right? Let's go back to 2020. Okay, I just want to show you where we were. Let's go back to the beginning. This is 9:00 on election night.
TAPPER: Okay.
KING: 244,000. So, we're at 10:00. Now, we're at 10:15, right? So, Donald Trump was ahead by 244,000 votes in 2020. The next day, midnight -- I'm sorry, midnight, as we turned, we're two hours away from that, an hour and 45, he was ahead by even more. He was ahead by 372,000 votes when Tuesday turned to Wednesday in 2020, right? And then at noon the next day, it was down to 101,000 votes because they were counting the mail-in ballots, and then it flipped to the vice president on Friday, Joe Biden, flipped to him on Friday. And then on Saturday, when the election was called, it was at 7,200. And then in the end, when they were done with the count, it was the infamous 11,779. So, Donald Trump has the same lead now, roughly, 10 or 20,000 votes, than he had in 2020. That does not mean Kamala Harris is going to win Georgia. It just means that she can. It just means that she can. It means that there's still math out there to do it, and we've lived through this before. 2024 will not be identical to 2020. States will count most votes faster. It's unlikely we're going to wait until Saturday. I say that with some hope as we go through this.
TAPPER: But look at all the blue -- look at all those big, blue bubbles.
KING: Yes, right. The question is, you know, with Donald Trump, 204,000 votes ahead, it's a healthy lead, right, especially in a state settled by 11,000 last time. So, you look at that number and you say, oh, wow, Republicans, Donald Trump's going to win Georgia. Hang on. 81 percent, 20 percent of the vote is a lot of the vote, especially when what you're looking for, the votes that are outstanding, the larger the circle, if you're just joining us, the more live outstanding votes, the color of the circle, the way the votes inside those circle are coming in.
[22:15:04]
So, Jake, you can look at this and you could say, you'd rather be Donald Trump and you'd be ahead, but there's plenty of opportunities for the vice president to make up that ground in battleground Georgia, Jake.
TAPPER: All right, John. And we have some projections for you now. CNN can project that Kamala Harris will win the state of Colorado. Colorado, as expected, will go Democratic with its ten electoral votes. CNN can also project that Donald Trump will be the winner of Mississippi, as expected. Mississippi and its six electoral votes go to the Republican.
Let's bring in the electoral map right now. Donald Trump in the lead, 178 electoral votes, Kamala Harris has 91 electoral votes. 270 electoral votes, as always, needed to win.
Let's take a look at the outstanding races right now. Arizona joins the map of key race alerts. Kamala Harris has 50 percent of the vote. Donald Trump has 49.2 percent of the vote. That is a 15,478 vote lead for Kamala Harris with 49 percent of the estimated vote counted.
Kamala Harris in Wisconsin, 49.9 percent of the vote, Donald Trump bringing up the rear, 48.5 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris with a 19,910 vote lead. That's with 43 percent of the estimated vote counted in Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania, Donald Trump in the lead there now, 50.3 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris has 48.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a 58,648 lead right now with an estimated 51 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania.
In Georgia, Donald Trump in the lead there, 51.-8 percent of the vote, Kamala Harris, 47.2 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a 204,640 vote lead, that's with 81 percent of the estimated vote in Georgia.
In battleground Michigan, Kamala Harris in the lead, 51.1 percent of the vote, Donald Trump with 47 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris with a 43,307 vote lead, that's with an estimated 19 percent of the vote in battleground Michigan.
In battleground North Carolina, Donald Trump in the lead, 52.4 percent of the vote, Kamala Harris with 46.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with 253,752 more votes as of right now than Kamala Harris. That's with 72 percent of the estimated vote in.
In New Mexico, Kamala Harris in the lead, 50.7 percent of the vote, Donald Trump with 47.6 percent of the vote. That means Harris has an 8,592 vote lead over Trump. That's with less than a third, 31 percent of the estimated vote in from New Mexico, still early in New Mexico.
Kamala Harris takes the lead again in Virginia with 49.1 percent of the vote, Donald Trump with 49 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris with a 1,118 vote lead, that's with 68 percent of the estimated votes in from Virginia.
John, what do you want to talk about?
KING: We have a changing map. We could talk about it all. We'll walk through them. Let's just take a quick look at Virginia and what happened there.
Right, so last time I was here Fairfax, here's what happened. Last I was in Fairfax, it was a much lower number. Now, you get a big -- this is the largest county in Virginia, 20-minute drive from D.C. Depending on traffic, it can be a 40-minute drive from D.C. But it's a pretty 20-minute drive, at least this time of night, if we want to give it a try, and that's one of the things that happened there. You see these close-in suburbs, you know, Alexandria, a much smaller population center.
TAPPER: Still, it's a very narrow lead still.
KING: You still come out to -- oh, it's a very, very narrow lead. But, again, so you're looking -- this was a ten-point race for Joe Biden. So, if you're seeing, even if Harris wins it, if it's closer, does that tell you you have a more competitive environment elsewhere, or does it tell you Donald Trump's doing well in one state? You know, sometimes there's that. It has a Republican governor since the last presidential election. So, you have to be careful about these things.
So, let's just see what's still out there. This margin's going to change. I mean, you know, there's some Republican votes down here, but there's plenty of opportunity for that tie, slight Harris lead, to turn into something else. It's the surprise of the night so far in terms of how close it is, but it just flipped blue. So, let's come back in 20 minutes ago and see how we're doing.
This is the most interesting one. Mr. Tapper's home state, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, just flipped red. Remember earlier, I was saying the three blue wall states had stayed blue throughout the night. We're nowhere near the end. We are nowhere near the end. We're at 51 percent right there. But you see that, so here we go. Battleground Pennsylvania, again, one of these --
TAPPER: It just jumped up. He wasn't -- she was leading there.
But, John, I want to -- I'm sorry to interrupt. We have an update on the outstanding vote in Georgia, if you want to bring Georgia and Gwinnett County. Victor Blackwell's at the Gwinnett County Election Center in the Atlanta suburb of Lawrenceville. Victor, what are you hearing about the vote count there?
VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: Well, Jake, I have the supervisor elections for Gwinnett County with me now, Zach Manifold, thank you for a few minutes here.
We've been told that there is a large tranche of votes that soon going to be reported. How many and how soon?
ZACH MANIFOLD, GWINNETT COUNTY ELECTIONS SUPERVISOR: Yes. We're just working with the state to go over it. We have uploaded it to the state, so they're just going through it. And it should be up here in a few minutes. So, yes, about 320,000 advance and in-person and absentee by mail, they're coming.
[22:20:01]
BLACKWELL: Okay. So, 323,000, and when you say minutes, we're talking five, ten minutes?
MANIFOLD: I don't know. It's with the state. So, they just -- they'll review it and then they'll tell us when to push those results.
BLACKWELL: And can you simplify what in the adjudication process held up these votes for hours?
MANIFOLD: Yes, it was just the images loading is slow. I'm not sure what caused that to happen. It usually isn't that slow. It was just literally kind of excruciatingly slow. But like I said, we got it resolved and, you know, moving forward and getting out those results.
BLACKWELL: This is also a problem that happened in 2020, though, was it not?
MANIFOLD: I don't know. I was not here in 2020. So, I'm not sure. I know they had issues similar, but I'm not sure.
BLACKWELL: So this has now been resolved. We should not expect this to be a problem with adjudicating ballots moving forward?
MANIFOLD: No, you shouldn't see this with the Election Day. And we actually do have all 156 precincts, the locations, their memory cards are in the office now. So, we've got everybody back. They're actually going to start running those memory cards now.
BLACKWELL: So, after those 323, it should move pretty quickly?
MANIFOLD: Yes. We're expecting it to pick up.
BLACKWELL: All right. Zach Manifold, supervisor of Elections here in Gwinnett County, I'll send it back to you, Jake.
TAPPER: Thanks, Victor.
Let's get more on Georgia from Sara Murray, who's at the Fulton County Elections Hub outside Atlanta. Sara, what are you hearing about the outstanding votes there?
SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jake, for all the flack that Fulton County gets for how it runs its elections, things have been going very smoothly and very steadily here tonight. They've had these memory cards coming in. They're uploading the day of election vote, and they're hoping in Fulton County to be able to upload all of their day of voting by 11:00 P.M.
Now, there is another large county where things are going a little bit slower, kind of like Gwinnett, DeKalb County. I spoke to them a little bit ago. They said they don't have a number of what their overall Election Day count was and they're not sure how long it's going to take for them to get through it. They're just chugging through it little by little.
Now in Cobb County, another large county here in Georgia, they said they still had less than a thousand absentee mail-in ballots that they had to get through and they also had about 85, 000 votes. That was their day of votes that they were turning to. They too are hoping to be done by 11:00 P.M.
The last county I talked to is Clayton County. They were also working through their day of voting. They had hoped to have it done by 10:00 P.M. It looks like they're missing that deadline a little bit, but they were definitely saying they only had a handful of precincts left, about 13 precincts when I talked to them about a half an hour ago, that they were still trying to upload the day of voting for. So, things seem to be going pretty smoothly.
And behind me, you get a little bit of a sense of the process. This is where the memory cards came through. They just brought them through. They check them in here with a police officer, they get scanned in. And then over in this glass room we're showing you, this is where these memory cards are removed. We start to see them uploaded.
So, that's what's happening here in Fulton County, and hopefully we'll have more for you around 11:00.
KING: Sara Murray reporting on the -- as you look around the Atlanta suburbs, as she's noted, she's in Fulton County, which is here, but this is where the big outstanding vote is. So, let's just come back statewide first, just to put it into context. The Trump lead now, 170,000 votes. It was over 200,000 not that long ago. So, it has come down some as more votes come in.
So, let's just walk through what we just heard real quickly. Fulton County, you're at 84 percent, but this is the number one population center, largest population center of the state, also a hugely Democratic area of the state. That's where we're waiting for votes. Also, Gwinnett County, number two, in terms of the population, plus the other counties right around Atlanta. Any path to a Democratic victory, Jake, has to come there.
So when we get more of those votes, we'll be able to at least get closer to being able to answer the question, is that lead that Donald Trump has safe, or are there enough votes out there for the vice president, not only to catch up, but to pass?
TAPPER: All right. John, thanks so much. We have another projection. CNN can project that Donald Trump will win the state of Ohio. Ohio is expected will go to Donald Trump, Ohio with its 17 electoral votes. What does that mean for the electoral count map? Donald Trump has 195 electoral votes. Kamala Harris has 91 electoral votes. 270 are needed to win.
John King?
KING: Well, Jake, as we watch more of the map fill in, and this is welcome to election night, we're now at what, 10:20 in the east and we're moving across and you see votes as far west as Montana and New Mexico and Arizona starting to come into the map. We haven't touched this one all night. Let's take a quick look out there in Arizona.
I haven't said Maricopa County on an election night and it's 10:24. That's an outrage. You see right here, the Arizona sac coming in, and it's very close right there. We're about half -- it says 50 percent of the votes. So, that's pretty fascinating that Arizona's getting that vote in so fast. Let's get back there in a minute.
Let's move more to the east in some of the battlegrounds that we know are absolutely key to the path to 270 and an interesting development. Again, it's early. We're still counting votes, but Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, half an hour ago, were all still blue. Now, Wisconsin has flipped to red only by 8,000 votes and we're only at 47 percent reporting.
And so there are two ways this happens.
[22:25:00]
Either Donald Trump is overperforming someplace where he hasn't before, or we're just filling in the rural counties.
So, let's get a look at the map and see what we have here.
Number one. Let's look at the live outstanding vote. So, you got big blue dot here in Milwaukee, big blue dot here in Madison, some blue dots out here in the area, but a lot of red dots as well. And so Donald Trump was a very narrow lead in Wisconsin, which, welcome, again, two elections in a row, it's been 20,000 votes and change, 22,000 votes, 20,000 votes. This certainly shapes up to look like we're going to have another one of those photo finish in Wisconsin. A lot of outstanding votes, so it's hard to make any projections or analysis except to say Wisconsin once again is incredibly close. So, let's come back out and move over to battleground Michigan. This one here, for those of you familiar, if you watch a lot of cable television, you've seen Debbie Dingell, the Democratic congresswoman from west of Detroit, Washtenaw County, Ann Arbor, is her district. Over the weekend, she got a lot of attention for saying she was nauseously, nauseously optimistic about Michigan. I was texting with her a little while ago, she said she's cautiously optimistic now. And I had to check, that's an upgrade. Cautiously optimistic is better than nauseously optimistic, according to the congresswoman.
This is her district right here. This is one of the things I highlighted earlier. Washtenaw County is the home of Ann Arbor, home of the University of Michigan, home of a campus, been there several times, where they have a remarkable voting operation, encouraging young people to vote, encouraging students who live out of state to switch their registration to Michigan. So, they vote in a battleground state, if you're from a state that's not a battleground state.
So, this is very important to the Democratic coalition. 66 percent right now, if you round that up for the vice president with 60 percent of the vote reporting and, again, 73 percent for vice President Biden, if it ends up that way, that's a problem. It doesn't mean you can't make it up somewhere else, but if you're losing votes in one key county, losing percentages in one key county, you better make them up somewhere else and track below.
Now, Michigan is the one state, to come back to the 2020 example, where you could argue the vice president has a little bit to lose, if you will. It's not Wisconsin, 20,000 votes. It's not Georgia, 11,000 votes. It's not Arizona, 10,000 votes. It's 154,000 votes. So, if you want to argue a 2020 replay, the vice president has a little bit more to lose in a state Joe Biden won relatively comfortably when it comes to the battlegrounds. But still, if you're the Vice President of the United States, you don't like the fact that Washtenaw County is so close.
So, now we come up to Ingham County. This is where you find Michigan State University, Lansing, the state capital. The combination of those two things, the state capitol and a big university normally says that's a Democratic area, and it is. It's a 59 percent, if you round up for the vice president. But, again, go back in time, danger zone, 65 percent for the president four years ago. How much can she give up will become the question if you find more counties like that where she's underperforming the president of the United States.
So, another way to look at it is come back to 2024 and bring it up and let's ask -- just ask that question. Is she overperforming the president anywhere? In a couple of places, she is. And that's it. If you're losing in one place, the question is, can you make up the math somewhere else?
So, where is she overperforming at the moment? Kent County. That's Grand Rapids in the suburbs around it 15 years ago. Even in 2016, Donald Trump won this county 15 years ago, reliably Republican, Western Michigan. You see right now, with 27 percent of the vote in, Trump is at 32 percent. The vice president is 66. You go back, you see the difference right there. But, the emphasis on the but, we're early in the count. So, let's blank this out and come back up.
But there are places -- again, if you're losing in one key constituency, it looks like at the moment she's losing with young voters and counties where those voters are important, can you make it up somewhere else? Another place I would look, because of the size of the population, the second largest county in Michigan is Oakland County. These are the Detroit -- just north of -- here's Detroit, right here. If you follow Eminem, think about 8-mile road, 12-mile road, here's where we are.
You come up into Oakland County, you come up into Macomb County. Oakland County, she's at 54 percent, with six in ten votes counted, 62 percent. So, you go back in time and you look, 56 percent, again, underperforming the president of the United States in a county that is absolutely critical. Four years ago, Joe Biden at 56, right now, she's at 54. I said she had some to lose. When you go county by county by county and she's a little behind, you start to worry about the math and then you see this, though, it's only 12 percent.
If this one stays blue, the vice president's going to win Michigan. This is Macomb County, birthplace of the Reagan Democrat, if you will. It's the auto industry, it's General Dynamics, it's blue collar people, it's a lot of union workers. The tug-of-war for the union leaders to try to convince their members to vote Democratic, instead of voting for Trump, this is Exhibit A of the laboratory of that. Trump tends to get 50 percent, somewhere in that ballpark, of the union vote. We'll watch how that plays out.
At the moment, again, only 12 percent, but the vice president is ahead at the moment. If you go back to 2020, that's why I point this out, if she's losing a little bit in Washtenaw, losing a little bit in Ingham, it'd be nice to make it up in Macomb. Joe Biden got 45 percent right there. The challenge -- the vice president's campaign would have been happy, I think, with a 45 there, actually, if they're doing everything else somewhere. We'll watch as that one plays out, if she can keep her lead in Macomb County.
Again, here's an aberration.
[22:30:01]
Donald Trump is not going to win Wayne County. We only have, what, 6,000 votes there, a little more than 6,000 votes, and you add it up. This is Detroit. But -- but I will say, Hamtramck and Dearborn are here in Wayne County. That's where hundreds of thousands of Arab Americans voted for Joe Biden in 2020. He won that vote overwhelmingly and they are mad at the White House because of Israel and Gaza and Hamas 6000 votes there, a little more than 6000 votes than you added up. This is Detroit.
And so, let's see what happens. This is one percent reporting. Wayne County will be blue at the end of the night. But the margin in Wayne County will matter and will matter huge in deciding who wins the state. Again, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, getting 68 percent. Donald Trump, just 30 percent. When we come to the end of the night, these numbers are meaningless. When we come to the end of the night, where is Harris and where is Trump? Where is Trump? Is he getting more black voters? Is he getting any of that Arab American vote? Last time I was out there, Trump's prospects weren't great. There are a lot of people saying they might vote for Jill Stein or just skip the presidential line because of their anger at the White House over that.
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania at the moment shaded red. Still, again, we're not done, but for Donald Trump, that would be recreating the 2016 map. He's leading in Wisconsin. He's leading in Pennsylvania. Right now, he's trailing in Michigan. He's getting close, right? He's getting close. So, he's at 51 percent right now, 106,000 votes ahead in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Only at 56 percent though. Only at 56 percent reporting, so a long way to go.
So, you're asking what's missing. Again, let's just see what's outstanding. Start there. You just step back and look at that. You see there's still, you see the small circle means not a lot of people live there. But you see a lot of places where Donald Trump's still going to get votes, and I'll come back to that in a minute. But you see a lot of rural areas where you still have outstanding votes, right?
And then at home, your eyes tell you, oh look, Philly in the suburbs, huge. Lehigh Valley right here, Allentown. Harrisburg over here, all right? Pittsburgh over there. Bigger blue circles. That'll tell you, you're right if you think that means there's math out there for the vice president to catch up. You're absolutely right. That means there's math out there for the vice president to catch up.
But do not underestimate these. Just do not underestimate these. This is Beaver County, Bedford County, excuse me, we're at 81 percent -- Donald Trump's getting 83 percent of the vote. It's not a ton of votes, but he's getting 83 percent of the votes. Then you come over here. If you watch David Urban on our air, these are the counties he looks at all the time.
Western Pennsylvania. This is Washington County, 72 percent of the vote in. Trump getting 60 percent. Let's compare it. Trump getting 61, he's 61 percent. So, he's running about roughly what he did last time there. I guess you could argue whether or not he needs to improve on that or not. Beaver County, this is a key Trump country out here, 66 percent. See about a 10,000 vote margin. This is a medium sized rural county, right? Some of them are a couple hundred votes.
This one here, you're doing some business. Again, in a state that's very close, you take 10,000 extra votes. Only 33 percent of the vote in here. Trump's at 66 percent. Almost more importantly, can she match Joe Biden? In counties you lose, can you at least be competitive? Can you at least pick up votes? She's at 33 percent in Beaver County, white, working class, blue-collar workers.
Joe Biden at 40 percent, that's a big difference. That's a big margin. Again, we're not done with the count. We're not done with the count there. That's 33 percent of the vote, it was a long way to go. But if you're in the vice president's campaign, and you know, you had Senator Fetterman out there for you, trying to help you.
The vice president herself was out campaigning in the Pittsburgh area just the other day. You want to improve your standing there. You just, you know Donald Trump's going to win those counties. You're just trying to cut into his margins in a close state. Bedrock and the Democrats will go west to east, second largest county in Pennsylvania. There are 67 of them in all, again, 74 percent.
So, more votes to count in Pittsburgh. Suburbs around it, Allegheny County used to be steel country, much different diversified economy now. Sixty-one percent for the vice president at the moment. You come back here, 60 percent for the president. So, a little under the president in some of these smaller rural counties, maybe a little over the president there. We'll see how this one comes out as we come back.
And Jake, as I just bring your full state into focus, I just want to move over very quickly to look at Bucks. We're only at 34 percent, so a lot of blue votes still to be counted. Montgomery at 34. Six percent still a lot of votes to be counted. Chester only at 11 percent. And Delaware only at 25. So, in the suburbs right around where Jake Tapper grew up, the Democratic leaning, and a lot of votes still to be counted. So, it's a good number for Trump now, emphasis on now.
TAPPER: Yes, I mean, and the points you're making are so resonant because I remember when everybody was trying to figure out how did Hillary Clinton lose Pennsylvania in 2016. It wasn't that she ran so much under how Obama had done in 2012, although she did. It was really just how much better Trump did in those rural counties than Mitt Romney did. It was more the overperformance of Trump than the underperformance of Hillary Clinton.
KING: Yes.
TAPPER: We'll see exactly what happens tonight, of course. David Chalian, what are you seeing in the exit polling about the Latino vote?
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yes, we wanted to look across all three blue wall states that John was just walking us through looking at this slice of the vote, the Latino vote in the blue wall states. Now, they only make up six percent of the electorate in each of these states but look at the difference in the margin.
[22:25:04]
So, Paris is getting in Pennsylvania 58 percent of the Latino vote. Again, six percent of the electorate to Donald Trump's 41 percent. That's a 17-point advantage. But four years ago, Biden beat Trump with Latinos in Pennsylvania by 42 points. So, that is a huge movement for Trump in narrowing that gap. Similar story in Michigan. You see the Latino vote makes up six percent of share. Sorry, not a similar story. A reverse.
Donald Trump is winning the Latino vote in Michigan with 60 percent of the vote. Harris, thirty-five percent of the vote. That's a 25 percent advantage for Trump among Latinos. That is a big change when Biden won Latinos in Michigan by 11 points four years ago. That's a 36-point swing in the margin.
And if you look at Wisconsin, Harris is at 61 percent among Latinos, Trump at 38 percent. Again, six percent of the electorate. These margins matter. That is about where Biden and Trump were four years ago. So, not a lot of change in the Latino vote in Wisconsin, but a lot of change in Michigan and Pennsylvania towards Trump, Jake.
TAPPER: Fascinating stuff, David Chalian, thanks so much. And let's talk about this with my -- with my panel here. Dana Bash, your thoughts.
DANA BASH, CNN ANCHOR: I mean, Pennsylvania and Michigan, in particular, in Pennsylvania, because there has been so much focus on the Latino vote in Pennsylvania, especially the Puerto Rican population there since the Madison Square Garden debacle. Even Donald Trump and the people around him, even though they're not saying it publicly, believe that what that comedian did was not helpful.
And yet, and yet, according to this exit poll, it shows that she -- that-- let's stick with Trump -- that Trump is doing way better than he did four years ago with that very population, the Latino population overall, not necessarily with Puerto Ricans.
CHRIS WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, and let's face it, that even before the garbage remark -- Trump was making a very concerted effort. He thought and obviously had reason to believe that he could make some gains with Latinos, particularly with Latino men. I think there are economic issues that all people are facing.
Also, I think cultural issues. There is a real social conservatism, you know, among Latinos. And you know, one of the ads that Trump and a lot of people sort of wondered about, I think more than any other, was the transgender ad. And you wonder if it did actually score with social conservatives and in winning votes for him and turning them away from Kamala Harris. Whatever the reason, you can see tremendous gains. I mean, Michigan, it's extraordinary, just a flip.
AUDIE CORNISH, "THE ASSIGNMENT WITH AUDIE CORNISH PODCAST HOST: I think, we're also used to considering this by straight identity where the identity that might be key here is rural. And I'd love to hear from John about where the kind of Hispanic heartland is.
Where are these voters? And we're looking at the blue wall for a reason. We're not necessarily talking about the border. You're not necessarily having this fight over your identity. You are the ideal Trump voter in that you are rural and you are more socially conservative.
BASH: You know, Since Madison Square Garden, we've been talking, John King, if you're over there at the map, about two particular towns in Pennsylvania, Allentown and Redding. I believe it's Lehigh County and Berks County.
KING: Right.
BASH: Do we have any sense of where the votes are there? KING: So here, this map you're looking at now just shows you, there's
not a very large Latino population in Pennsylvania. I'll put that into context in just a minute. But where you do see the deeper shading is where you have the higher population of Latino voters. So, you see the concentration in Allentown, that's Lehigh County. And you see the concentration in the Redding area, that's Berks County. You're correct about that.
I just want to come me out, you know nationally so you see the look like Pennsylvania has nowhere near the Latino population of a Florida or Texas or Arizona. But in a battleground state, a small population can make the difference, right? So, let's come off that and come back into Pennsylvania 2024. Where were they?
This is the interesting part. The exit polls are taken of people as they leave the polls, right? We're still counting votes. So, some of this may not have kicked in yet in the map if you will. You know, people say that when they leave the polls, we don't know what precincts are in Allentown or in Idaho anyway out here right now. Some of our people can jump at me if they do -- if they have that information.
The Lehigh County, the 10th largest of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania. It's important. It's a blue-collar county. So, 53 to 45 right now, only 43 percent of the votes. So, let's watch and see when we get higher up if this percentage changes.
But just come out of this and look at 2020, all right? Joe Biden -- she's about t0 -- matching Joe Biden. Trump's at 46. I'm going to focus on him. So, you come here, he's at 45. And then Berks County here, I come down to, I spent a lot of time in Berks County in this campaign.
[22:40:03]
And it's gone back to being Republican. It was blue earlier and we're at 92 percent. So, maybe a little bit there, Jake. We'll study a little bit more closely as we go through this.
TAPPER: All right. We have some projections right now. CNN can project that Iowa will go to Donald Trump as expected. Iowa and its six electoral votes will go to Donald Trump. CNN can project. CNN can also project that Kansas will go to Donald Trump. Kansas and its six electoral votes will go to Donald Trump.
So, that's 12 additional electoral votes for Donald Trump, who now has 207 electoral votes. Kamala Harris has 91 electoral votes. There are 270 electoral votes needed to win. Donald Trump holding a sizable lead in the electoral vote as of now, but we are expecting more votes to drop in Democratic strongholds in key battleground states.
We're also counting down to the next round of poll closings at 11 P.M. Eastern when Democrats are expecting to claim a goldmine of electoral votes out west in California. That's all ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [22:43:56]
TAPPER: As we prepare for the next round of poll closing in about 15 minutes, let's take a look at the fight for electoral votes right now. As of right now, Donald Trump has 207 electoral votes. Kamala Harris has 91 electoral votes. There are 270 needed to win. The results, of course, are still coming in and we have a key race alert right now.
In Arizona, Donald Trump is in the lead with 49.6 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 49.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a narrow 1046 vote lead with 51 percent of the estimated vote in from battleground Arizona. In battleground Wisconsin, Donald Trump is in the lead there with 49.3 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris is 49.1 percent of the vote.
Donald Trump with a 4004 up, that just increased. So, to a 5000, to a 6556 lead ahead of Kamala Harris with an estimated 55 percent of the vote in from Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, Donald Trump maintaining his lead, 50.9 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 48.1percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a 121,000 plus vote lead. That's with 61 percent of the estimated vote in from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
In Georgia, Donald Trump maintaining his lead with 51.2 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris is 48 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with a 153,980 vote-lead with an estimated 86 percent of the vote in. In Battleground, Michigan, Kamala Harris in the lead. She has 52.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump with 45.7 percent of the vote.
Kamala Harris with a more than 102,000 vote lead. That's with 27 percent of the estimated vote in from Battleground, Michigan. In North Carolina, Donald Trump maintaining his lead. He has 50.7 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris with 47.9 percent of the vote. Donald Trump is 134,000 plus votes ahead with 84 percent of the estimated vote in, in the Tar Heel state.
In Virginia, Kamala Harris still in the lead, 49.9 percent of the vote. Donald Trump has 48.3 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris is maintaining a 55,000 plus vote lead with three quarters of the vote in there in Virginia, 75 percent of the estimated vote.
And then in New Mexico, Kamala Harris with 53.2 percent of the vote -- in the lead there. Donald Trump has 44.9 percent of the vote. Kamala Harris has 48,589. More votes than Donald Trump right now with an estimated 65 percent of the vote. Still about a third of the vote left to count in New Mexico. And Boris Sanchez has a new projection for us in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate. Boris?
BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, Jake, a handful of important projections to bring you beginning with history being made in the state of Maryland. There, the executive of Prince George's County, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will defeat former two-term Republican Governor Larry Hogan. She becomes the first African American person ever elected to the Senate from the state of Maryland.
Another projection to bring you, this one from the state of Delaware. Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester defeats Eric Hanson, a former Walmart executive, a Democrat here becoming the first woman and the first African American person ever elected to the Senate from Delaware.
A projection to bring you in the Northeast, this time in New York, there, incumbent Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a former presidential candidate, she will win her third full-term in office as she defeats former NYPD detective Mike Sapraicone.
Let's get you some updates on the Republican side, beginning with the Lone Star State of Texas. Going into the night, Democrats had optimism about potentially flipping this seat from red to blue. Instead. Republican incumbent Ted Cruz wins re-election, cruising to his third term against Democrat Colin Allred, a congressman from the Dallas area, a former Tennessee Titans middle linebacker. Cruz here winning by a substantial margin in the Lone Star State.
An update now from Mississippi. Their incumbent Republican Roger Wicker wins his third full term, defeating civil rights attorney Ty Pickens. Re-election for Wicker in Mississippi. An update now from one of the reddest states in the country, Wyoming.
There, incumbent Republican Senator John Barrasso wins his fourth term as he defeats Scott Morrow, a union official who touts his black gold in Taekwondo on his campaign website. Barrasso, re-elected in Wyoming.
Some more projections to bring you beginning in Missouri. There, incumbent Republican Senator Josh Hawley, perhaps best known for being the first senator to object to certifying the 2020 election results in favor of Joe Biden. He defeats Democrat Lucas Kuntz to win re-election in Missouri.
Meantime, in Nebraska, this special election, Pete Ricketts, a former governor there, he defeats Preston Love Jr., a former campaign manager for Jesse Jackson's presidential campaign in 1984. This is to serve out the term left by retired Republican Senator Ben Sasse.
An update from North Dakota now. There, incumbent Republican Senator Kevin Kramer wins his second term, defeating engineering professor Katrina Christensen Kramer, re-elected in North Dakota.
So, what do all these results mean for the magic number that Republicans need to take control of the U.S. Senate. Remember, they started out the night needing two Democratic seats to flip the chamber. Right now, that number with a pickup in West Virginia is one. And currently, as of this moment, Republicans are leading in four races where Democrats hold seats.
But hold on because that needs some context. Two of these states are fairly early. One of them is Montana, and that race is expected to be competitive. But the other one is Minnesota, in which we're not really expecting that close of a race tonight. And there's also potentially a twist. I'll explain that in just a moment as we take a look at some key race alerts.
These are live results coming into CNN right now. In Pennsylvania, this race has been back and forth all night. Look at what separates the former CEO of a hedge fund, Dave McCormick, from incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey -- 0.1 percentage points, 44,000 vote lead for McCormick with 61 percent of the vote in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
[22:50:02]
Meantime, the most expensive senate race in the country, in history. Nearly half a billion dollars spent on this race and currently, Colombian-born businessman Bernie Marino leads incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown with 261,000 votes, 84 percent of the vote-in in Ohio, where now Donald Trump has won the book, I state, three times in a row.
And this is the twist I was talking about before. No one expected this Senate race in Nebraska would be this close. We have Dan Osborne, an independent, who has not said which party he would caucus with. In fact, saying that he would caucus with neither party. Right now, he holds a 10,000, almost 11,000 vote lead over incumbent Republican Deb Fischer, 48 percent of the vote in there.
If he wins, it could change the math a little bit for what Republicans need to take control of the Senate. Let's step back and give you a look at the balance of power. The raw numbers, Democrats hold 35 seats, Republicans 48, again with that one pick-up of West Virginia. But there are 17 seats still up for grabs. You need 51 for control of the chamber, Jake.
TAPPER: The Nebraska race is fascinating. The presidential race is moving west right now. And we are counting down to 11 P.M. Eastern. That's when a total of 78 electoral votes are on the line. Most of them are in California. Polling places are about to close there and also in Idaho and Oregon and Washington state.
Kamala Harris is counting on Blue California to push her closer to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Let's go back to Abby Phillip and Harris campaign headquarters. Abby, you and Jeff have been talking to people inside the Harris campaign. What are they telling you?
ABBY PHILLIP, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, Jake, let me just give you a gut check here about what we are hearing here as we've been sitting here reporting from the Harris headquarters. And I think the operative word right now is silence. There's not a lot being said because the Harris team appears to be searching for bright spots in the map as these results very, very slowly come in.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Searching for bright spots and also very aware of the warning signs throughout the electorate in Virginia, in Iowa, in other places. I am told that Milwaukee and Detroit and Philadelphia, that is what the Harris campaign tonight is holding out hope for.
More votes to come in. They have always said the blue wall was the most straightforward path. Now, it may be the best, not only at all because Georgia is also something that is developing tonight. PHILLIP: Yes, I mean I still hear from -- from Harris aides that they
feel good about Georgia, but it is very, very close and the blue wall still remains the best option for her in this moment. So, that's just Jake where things stand right now. Usually, and I know you know this, as the night goes on, the campaign is trying to spin these numbers as they come out.
Jeff and I have been sitting here reporting for hours. There's been a slowdown in that spin because they really are digging into these numbers as they are coming in and trying to understand what's left out there for them, especially in these big urban centers. Jake?
TAPPER: Yes, and this is my seventh presidential election. I would observe that when campaigns go silent, it's generally not a positive sign. Kaitlan Collins, you're in West Palm Beach with the Trump team. What are they saying?
KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, Jake, much livelier here as you can hear. Donald Trump's favorite song, YMCA, is playing behind me. And certainly, the audience here has gotten a lot livelier in just the last 45 minutes or so, Jake.
We've been here for several hours. And that matches the feeling back at Mar-a-Lago, where we are hearing from Trump campaign sources that they are feeling a lot more optimistic about these numbers, boosted by Virginia, but also by Iowa, a number that proved wrong, that poll that came out on Saturday and sent shockwaves through the Trump campaign. And Kristen Holmes, I know you've talking to sources. What are you hearing about what they're thinking right now watching this come in?
KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They're starting to feel even more optimistic than they were before. A lot of them are looking at those exit poll numbers and they're seeing a lot of movement, a lot -- some of it we've talked about on our air but the big numbers there, Latino voters.
That is something that they really worked at this cycle. They believe that in 2016, Donald Trump won the election on the back of working- class voters, they believe he could win the election this time around on the back of Latino voters, particularly, Latino men.
Now, one thing to watch, Arizona and Nevada, what do those numbers look like? He specifically, in Nevada, reached out to Latino voters. They were trying to launch their coalition for Hispanic voters in Nevada. They believe that this could actually carry him in that state, which obviously he did not win in 2020. He didn't win it in 2016, but they do believe that if he wins it in this cycle, it is because of Latino voters.
COLLINS: Yes, they feel very good about him improving his standing with those voters from where he was, not only 2016, but 2020, Kristen Holmes. And Jake, I should note, a sign, as you're always just kind of looking for moments and to read the tea leaves, see what they mean.
[22:55:04] We're told that party goers who were at Mar-a-Lago, where Donald Trump still is right now, are now filtering in here to the party at the convention center. Of course, it remains to be seen if and when Donald Trump himself shows up here, Jake.
TAPPER: All right, Kaitlan and Kristen, thanks so much. Let's go to John King at the magic wall. John, what can you tell us about Georgia right now?
KING: So, let's look at battleground, Georgia. First, let's just look at the entire map and look at it out. There's a lot of red on that map -- a lot of red on that map and that tells you right now, right now, with a lot of votes to be counted, this map looks a lot more like 2016 than it does like 2020, and you know at home what happened in those two elections.
But we're not done with the count, so let's look in Georgia. Right now, the former president, leading in Georgia by 136,000 votes and change at 51 percent to 48 percent, 89 percent in. So, when you get this close to the finish line, you're saying what's left and is it enough? Is it enough to overcome 136,000 votes?
So, let's start with that and let's look at where our live outstanding votes are. The bigger the circle, the more votes still to be counted. The color of the circle, how the votes coming in that area right now. So, you do see a lot of big circles in Atlanta and the suburbs down here in Savannah and the suburban areas around that, Columbus, Georgia down here.
You see some pockets of Democratic votes that are still out. They're large pockets. That's a lot of votes. And if they come in big numbers, we'll see how significantly the Vice President narrows that gap. You also see a lot of these little blue dots. They're not done in the rural counties in Georgia. And that matters, too, because, yes, if you get a big basket of votes, in Cobb County is at 95 percent, though. So, you're not going to get a ton there.
Fulton County is at 90 percent. It's the largest population center, so 10 percent can be a lot of votes because of the population center. This is the one we're waiting the most on Gwinnett County, but they're up to 72 percent now and then we'll come down here and look at the Cabb County. They're at 89 percent now.
So, we have more votes to come from in this circle of Atlanta and the suburbs around that are blue. But we also have more votes to come from in some of these counties out here. That one's at 94, that one's at 95, that one's at 98, that one's at 92. So, you know, you got a lot of the vote-in in these places. So, Donald Trump still has some votes to pick up in the rural areas. The question is how big are the Vice President's advantages in the Democratic areas where votes are still out?
When you're down by 136,000 votes with 89 percent reporting, when those votes come in, not only in Atlanta suburbs, I just want to check down here in Chatham County, they're only at 36 percent. So again, if you're in the Harris campaign, Abby and Jeff are exactly right. They are scrubbing the books now. They're looking at their data projections. They are calling people in the states. They are trying to find out. What happened here? How many people turned out? We're getting 60 percent of the vote at 36 percent counting. How many more did it get? Are they all ours or are we splitting these votes? That's -- it gets frantic.
In campaign headquarters at this point of the night when you're trying to figure out is the math possible, I would say as you pull it out, yes, the math is possible, but you'd rather be Donald Trump right now in Georgia than the Vice President of the United States.
So, let's look at North Carolina, another of the Sun Belt states -- 145,000 votes ahead. That's almost twice what Donald Trump won North Carolina by four years ago. Eighty-five percent of the vote in. Same test. What's the outstanding vote? Again, again, smaller circle now in Mecklenburg. I'll go there in just a second to see. That was a little bit bigger earlier in the night. That's the largest county. Mecklenburg County is Charlotte and the suburbs around it.
Out here, in the Raleigh-Durham area, still a lot of votes to be had. Fayetteville area, a lot of votes to be counted. But again, look at those little, tiny dots, right? Not a lot out there, but all those little rural counties add up for Donald Trump. So, let's just come out and check where we were talking about.
Right here, Cumberland County, that's Fayetteville, only 21 percent. So, this is where -- if you're the Harris campaign, when I was in those Georgia counties, they were at 75 percent, 80 percent, somewhere in that ballpark. That gets you nervous. That gets you jittery. Here, you're still jittery because you're losing, but you know there are a lot more votes out there.
This is the second largest county in the state, Wake County. They're up to 82 percent. So, you're starting to get a little nervous there. You're looking for places, that's 94 percent. You're looking for places that are your color, that's 95 percent that are in the 60s, in the 70s, or the 30s, right? This county, it's not as much population, but at least there, you have some hope.
Let's look at Mecklenburg. They're at 90 percent. Now again, this is where the biggest numbers come in. So, that 10 percent can matter, but, but it's the only big county you have left. And the other guy has 145,000 vote lead in a state he has won twice.
So, now, we come up here and that's what made Donald Trump president in 2016. He flipped the blue wall states that had voted. They have voted together since 1992. They have voted blue in every one of those elections with the exception of 2016. Right now, as we get closer in to late night here, Donald Trump is leading in Pennsylvania by 116,000 votes -- only 67 percent.
So, a ways to go there, a ways to go. The Senate race is also tight. Guess what? There we are in Pennsylvania. Then you come over here. He's leading in Wisconsin. This is a state -- two elections in a row by ballpark 20,000 votes.
[23:00:02]
Trump's lead is 26,000 votes right there. Again, battleground Wisconsin, very close. The Vice President's team scratching to try to find votes. And Michigan, she's leading in Michigan. Only 30 percent of the vote there coming in. So, to me, as I look at this map, the blue wall states become paramount, Jake.
TAPPER: Indeed, voting is about to end in four states out west. That includes the biggest prize of all, California, which has 54 of the 78 electoral votes at stake this hour.
