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CNN Live Event/Special
Midterms 2026: Countdown To Election Night. Aired 9-10p ET
Aired October 18, 2026 - 21:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[21:00:04]
ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Now, Latino voters could be key in races across the country, including in Texas, where Democrats are hoping to capitalize on some of that voter frustration towards the president. But one of the big questions on election night will be whether Republican candidates can survive, even as the national sentiment among Latino voters is souring on the president -- Laura.
LAURA COATES, CNN HOST: Arlette Saenz, thank you so much.
(MUSIC)
COATES: Good evening and welcome back to the second special hour of LAURA COATES LIVE as we count down to the November midterms, now just 16 days away.
And tonight, the president is about to step on the gas in his tour to try to help Republicans, especially those locked in tight Senate races. He's going to campaign every single day this week, starting tomorrow in Kansas and ending in Michigan a week from today.
The president's war in Iran and his tariffs have put Republicans on defense all across the United States, including in Michigan, where Senate nominee Mike Rogers faces a tough race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
And on the big issue in this election, affordability, Rogers is suggesting that voters just need to be a little more patient.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE ROGERS (R), MICHIGAN SENATE NOMINEE: When the war ends and we get back, we're getting ourselves in shape or the Republicans in Washington are trying to get it in shape so that we have -- we can take full advantage of it lower prices, lower energy prices, more access to American energy. All of that will help us. This is a change election.
If you want better economy, you want your kids to stay here, if you want your kids reading again, this is the time that we do it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: With me now, Rogers' opponent, Democratic senate nominee from Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed. Good evening to you. Welcome to this important moment.
I mean, you just heard Mike Rogers pitch himself as a candidate of change. But why is your platform better than what rogers is offering?
ABDUL EL-SAYED (D), MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: If Mike Rogers looks like change to you, you haven't been watching the last 25 years. He's right. This is a change election. People don't want somebody who's going to rubber stamp a hot war in Iran. They don't want somebody who's going to rubber stamp stupid tariffs with Canada. They don't want somebody who set up the whole surveillance state in the first place. That's got flock cameras in your backyard.
They don't want somebody who's invested up to $2.6 million in the A.I. industry and making money off of current data center projects that are being put in their backyard. They don't want any of that.
They do want change. They want money out of politics, money in their pocket, and Medicare for all. And we are building the kind of movement, the kind of campaign that can actually deliver on that by standing up to Trump and Trumpism. Don't forget, Donald Trump is coming to Michigan on Sunday.
And who do you think he's going to be with? And if you think that means change, then I think you're a little bit confused about where we're headed. Mike Rogers has not seen a new idea since 1995, since he started in government, and he is going to show up to do more of the same.
COATES: Well, then that perhaps leads me into my next question, because you are facing a lot of the same questions, particularly your opponent attacking you today for a heated exchange from your town hall. And yesterday it involved a voter asking you whether you would disavow the Muslim Brotherhood. I just want to our viewers to see exactly how that moment unfolded before I get your response.
Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VOTER: I have one simple question: will you disavow the Muslim Brotherhood?
EL-SAYED: Sure. Yeah, absolutely. But I want to -- I want to ask to the question that you're asking, why are you asking the question?
VOTER: Well, because they're a terrorist group.
EL-SAYED: Okay. No, no, but what are you implying? Do you assume that I wouldn't?
VOTER: Yes.
EL-SAYED: Why not?
VOTER: Because I have not heard you disavow them yet. EL-SAYED: Have you disavowed them? I haven't heard you disavow them
yet.
VOTER: I disavow.
EL-SAYED: Do you? Great.
But here's the thing about it. You're asking the question because implicitly you assume that ill have dual loyalties, right? You assume that somehow I wouldn't disavow.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: Then, of course, Mike Rogers, who didn't like your answer, he told my colleague Dana Bash this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROGERS: What has become the issue is his relationship and his family relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in five Muslim countries.
You know, he wants to play the victim. This is not about that. This is about the way you think, not the way you pray. This is about your ideology and how dangerous it is.
He didn't disavow it. He goes on this word salad, trying to get around the fact that he can't do it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: I didn't hear a word salad. But you have disavowed the Muslim Brotherhood. But why do you think Republicans continue to question that and harp on this particular issue, given all that you've just laid out about why you think change is impactful here?
EL-SAYED: Well, Mike Rogers doesn't want to talk about gas. He doesn't want to talk about groceries, doesn't want to talk about the fact that people can't see a doctor, doesn't want to talk about the fact that it's their policies that are making all of this so much harder.
So, instead, they just point to my name, they point to my faith, they create all kinds of insinuations about dual loyalties, and they send people like this guy who apparently was a former staffer for Josh Hawley from Missouri to town halls in the middle of the state of Michigan.
When you have no new ideas, and your only approach is to backstop a president who called you and asked you to run in the first place, you're going to try and find anything you can to distract from the issues.
[21:05:09]
Let's be clear: I think this Iran war needs to end so that we can start addressing the fact that our gas is too expensive and we can't afford our groceries. I think having a tariff war with Canada is insane, because, of course, so many of our supply chains go back and forth across that bridge or that tunnel, and he doesn't want to talk about any of those things. So instead, he's just pointing at me.
COATES: Well, let's talk about it from your perspective. I want you to go from, I think, to what you will do because you've been an outspoken critic of the war with Iran. Vice President J.D. Vance had this very question for you. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
J.D. VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I see what Abdul el- Sayed says about the war in Iran. I see him criticizing decisions that the president has made. The military has made. But fundamentally, we are where we are. And you have to, in my view, I'd like to know what is Abdul El-Sayed solution for the problem that we have right now? It's easy to criticize something that happened seven months ago.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: Of course, many voters agree with you wholeheartedly that the war is draining their pocketbooks, that it's harmful in a variety of ways. And let me just assume for a moment, you win the race. You are called senator and now Vice President J.D. Vance calls you.
What specifically would you tell him to resolve the crisis we're now facing based on what has been done?
EL-SAYED: First of all, Ohio State owes that boy a refund because he clearly didn't get anything from his education there. And the thing we should not have done is started the war in the first place. In fact, we were in a state of peace with the potential for nuclear proliferation to be contained under the JCPOA under President Obama.
COATES: So, now what will you do about that? I hear and I hear you.
(CROSSTALK)
EL-SAYED: He's at war.
COATES: I don't want to cut you off, but I hear you. What will you do?
EL-SAYED: Yeah. We're going to call a war powers resolution and end their capacity to continue this war. And then we are going to put it in the hands of our diplomats who had addressed the issue in the first place under the Obama administration, and move toward a place where we can get back to the kind of agreement we had.
More war is not solving anything. It's getting us deeper into this quagmire. And I think it is time for us to actually try for the kind of peace that we had that had been negotiated under President Obama.
COATES: So, now, that we're in this situation and you see where I'm going with this, many people share your frustrations. Now we're in the now what category? Is the goal to get back to the pre-war status quo or improvements on that? And is that practical? EL-SAYED: I think the ideal is to get back to the JCPAO, that that'd
be the ideal. And we did it under a much wiser, much more capable president. Now, I don't know if Donald Trump understands that you actually have diplomats who actually can address issues without going to war.
Just don't forget, this is a guy who, just before he took us to war with Iran, had taken out the leader of Venezuela. He got a little bit excited about what the U.S. military can do.
But the problem with this is that once you get into a war, it's very hard to get out of. So what I really like us to do is recognize that this war is not getting us toward any real aims. We have not -- we have not gotten any control over the Strait of Hormuz. If anything, we are watching as the war is spilling deeper and further out of the original confines that it was supposed to be held within.
So I think we need to end the actual war part of things, and I think we need to put it in the hands of our diplomats who can ideally get us back to the kind of status quo that we had before Donald Trump messed it up the first time.
COATES: Let's talk about what happened just back in July. I recognize, of course, we're already in October. It's 15 days before real go time, right?
But back in July, CNN's reporting highlighted some deep anxieties within the black community about your candidacy. And there was now a prominent Black leader in Detroit who recently spoke to CNN and not my favorite way on the condition of anonymity. So I'll give you that. But describe the conversation with you that left him feeling, quote, "They believe they don't necessarily need to work as hard to get the Black vote."
Now, say what you will about an anonymous comment or anonymous person, but what concrete steps have has your campaign taken to make sure that that's no longer a concern? Those of the primary in the general election, especially given the fact that it seems Mike Rogers, who just opened an office in Detroit yesterday, seems to be taking quite seriously the idea of needing Black voters who, of course, are not a monolith. What's your response?
EL-SAYED: Well, it's cute that he opened an office in Detroit. He invited all of his friends from the suburbs to come open it for him.
Look, we've been campaigning in the city of Detroit for a long time, but I didn't just show up to ask for votes. I've been working with and for Black Detroiters since I rebuilt the health department alongside leaders in the community back in 2015.
So I got a story to tell about what I've actually done in the city and done alongside Black voters. So if anybody thinks were taking anything for granted, I would just show you our schedule. We are out and about having conversations and there's never enough conversations that you can have. I look forward to continuing those conversations over the next 16 days
to talk about what I have done to put glasses on kids' faces, take on corporate polluters, eliminate medical debt for Detroiters, and across Wayne County, while also talking about the opportunity to stand up to Donald Trump.
[21:10:03]
Mike Rogers is going to be the worst kind of sock puppet for Donald Trump. He is literally running because Donald Trump told him to do it. He wants to do everything that Donald Trump tells him, including continue to keep our gas prices and our groceries high because of this war and these ridiculous tariffs. And so, we've got a choice in this election, and we're going to continue to fight for every single vote. Have those conversations, share what it is that I have done and what it is I'm looking to do to make life easier for Black Detroiters and for Michiganders all over our state.
But look, when you compare our campaign to his campaign, I think I've done 15 -- 15 town halls in the last four days alone. I think the smallest town hall I've done is bigger than the biggest event he's done his entire campaign.
So we're going to keep having those conversations. We look forward to touching more voters in their communities to talk about what it looks like to get money out of politics, put money in your pocket, pass Medicare for all.
COATES: You know, your primary opponent, Congresswoman Haley Stevens, she endorsed you but hasn't joined you on the trail. Why not? And will she before you actually have Election Day?
EL-SAYED: Obviously, she's got an extremely busy schedule and I know she's been traveling abroad. I think she's had several CODELs in the last several weeks. She was just out campaigning for us.
In fact, we've had a lot of surrogates all over the state I haven't necessarily been campaigning with because we're trying to fan out and touch as many people as we possibly can.
So the best use of all of our time is to touch as many people simultaneously as we can. I'm grateful for the work that Congressman Stevens -- Congresswoman Stevens, is putting in to this campaign to help us win, and I'm looking forward to continue to press through Election Day in 16 days.
COATES: You predicted that you will win this race by seven points. Do you stand by that prediction?
EL-SAYED: Let's see. I feel pretty good about it. I'll tell you.
You know, we were all over the Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan over the last two weeks. I was in Iron Mountain, and then we went to the east side of the upper peninsula in Sault Ste. Marie, and we had 500-person rallies in both of those communities. Those are not the places that somebody with a name like mine and who is a Democrat, should expect to get that kind of a warm reception.
I don't think -- I don't think Mike Rogers has actually been to the upper peninsula since the general election started. I think he's taking a lot of things for granted. And so we're going to keep pressing. We feel really strong about where we are.
COATES: Abdul El-Sayed, thank you for joining.
EL-SAYED: Thank you.
COATES: Coming up, Democrats have made corruption a key midterm issue, and now more than half the country agrees with them. We invite you at home to join the conversation. By submitting your questions, head to CNN.com/politics and we'll answer some of your questions throughout the show.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:17:02]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-GA): Listen, Donald Trump is a crook and he's got to go. And the people who are enabling him, they all have to be held accountable. And so, we ought to have the investigations to get to the truth behind the most corrupt administration in American history.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: The Democrats are hammering their anti-corruption message home, and even some Republicans seem to be listening. There is a new poll that found that two-thirds of Americans believe that Trump is using the White House to enrich himself, two-thirds.
And when you dig a little deeper into those numbers, that includes almost three out of ten Republicans.
My panel is back with me.
I mean, Scott, that's pretty concerning that Republicans, some believe that the president is self-dealing. How do you get out of that?
SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I mean, you just be honest with the American people about, you know, what you are, what you've done, and prepare to answer questions. Look, if the midterms don't go the way the Republicans want them to go, this is going to be looked into by congressional committees. And what you have to do is make sure you've dotted every I, crossed every T, coordinated and communicated and taken all the advice of the White House counsel and followed all the rules and regulations.
That's what you can do. Transparency and following the rules will go a long way. I would just say, though, this corruption question that's come up late in the campaign, I hear Democrats thundering on it, but they don't have the same energy for the corruption in their own party, say, in Minnesota, where that state government is so corrupt that the sitting lieutenant governor right now in a very blue state, is locked in a dead heat with a Republican running for the U.S. Senate because of corruption under Democrats in the state government.
So I hear Warnock and I hear the other Democrats. I just don't hear them with any energy for the corruption and self-dealing that's gone on in their own party and a lot of blue states.
COATES: Do you feel energized to address that very point?
ASHLEY ALLISON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I think Democrats don't approve of corruption. I think Republican voters also are not approving of corruption. If you ask Penny Flanagan, who is running in Minnesota, she's been very clear not supporting any type of corruption. And if she wins, looking into it in her state.
But the reality is, like, we see this every day with this president, we see his son having a wedding paid by a Russian oligarch. We see him getting a plane donated to him from the Qataris. We see him making billions of dollars since he's been in office, while Americans cannot even put food on their table. They're having to decide between food and rent.
We don't have to make the story up. He writes it for us every single day. So yeah, go ahead, cross those I's and dot those T's. But you got to believe T's are crossed and I's are dotted, because I don't think this president does.
DAVID AXELROD, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah, I think that the issue is that there is this growing perception. I mean, in this AP/NORC poll, 74 percent of people said the president has prioritized his personal business interests, 73 percent the business interests of his friends and family, the country overall, 42 percent. And that includes a fair number of Repub -- 54 percent of Republicans. And people like me, they think 29 percent.
And so at a time when people are struggling in this country, all of these schemes that the president is involved in and the intensity with which he's pursued it, it doesn't strike -- doesn't strike a good note with people.
[21:20:11]
When he talks about the golden age, he seems to be the only one who's prospering from it. And I think this is a big problem for him in this election.
BRAD TODD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I think a big problem is, is the narrative of saying it's a golden age. You know, J.D. Vance, we saw clips there from that ABC town hall that Vice President Vance did.
I thought he did a fantastic job of explaining that, that we inherited a mess. There are some intractable problems that will take a long time to fix, and we're doing our best to do it. It takes a long time to turn this ship around. That's honest. And I think that that's -- the -- LULU GARCIA-NAVARRO, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: That's not honest.
TODD: I think that's the case --
GARCIA-NAVARRO: That -- that's not honest.
TODD: -- the president should be making.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: All you have to do is the problem that the president has is that the numbers don't lie. And so when, you know, he took office, inflation was falling, jobs were climbing, and he has inverted that through his own policies.
And so, at the end of the day, there's only so much spin that you can do. I struggle a lot with this idea that if only they could get the message right, or if only there was the right messenger. The fact is that the policies have caused an enormous problem in this country with the economy, and we know that regular people look to the top and say, that's on you, buddy. And that's what's happening now.
AXELROD: I mean, here's the -- here's the -- this is a separate issue from the corruption. But I think it all melds together. But this is an unusual situation where people can point -- they know exactly why these gas prices have gone up. They know exactly why in the northern tier, why they're paying the -- you know, their trading partner now is punishing them and were punishing them.
These are decisions. These were not sort of -- these weren't inherited. He didn't inherit the war. He didn't --
(CROSSTALK)
TODD: -- Iran's been at war with us since 1979.
COATES: Trump did not inherit the war with Iran.
TODD: Absolutely. Iran has been at war with us since 1979, and with our allies in the region. I agree.
COATES: Wouldn't that mean every president since then --
(CROSSTALK)
AXELROD: Brad, Brad, you're a professional. Go out and make that argument and see how it goes.
TODD: I think -- I think that the fact that we have to stop --
AXELROD: People know better.
TODD: We have to stop the Iranian terror regime and the fact that the leading state sponsor of terror in the world, we have to get rid of that regime. I think that's an argument.
AXELROD: So that's what -- that's what the end result here is, that you'll topple the regime. So that's -- TODD: They can't get a nuclear weapon.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: And you've made that argument, though. But my point here is fine. I mean, that is a -- that is a completely fair argument to make. I'm not -- I don't think any -- you know --
COATES: That Trump inherited the war with Iran?
GARCIA-NAVARRO: No, no, no, not that Trump inherited the war with Iran that you needed to topple the regime, that they were --
(CROSSTALK)
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Yeah. Okay, fine.
TODD: The free world needed to. The West needed to.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Fine. You can make that argument, but you have to live with the consequences of that argument.
ALLISON: That's right.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: And the consequences of that argument is that gas prices have gone up. And this president is now enormously unpopular. These are policy decisions.
TODD: As is the war.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: As is the war itself.
TODD: All wars are unpopular, and they should be.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Some -- you know, be that as it may, this one has had a real cause and effect. And it looks like it's prolonged and the president has over-promised and under-delivered. And so we are where we are.
You can make the policy choices that you want, but you live with the consequences.
TODD: Can't say it's going to end in two weeks, but you should -- but that doesn't mean the war is not worth waging, that we have to win it.
JENNINGS: Lulu, when you were making your arguments, you said he inherited an economy where inflation was falling. Just falling from where? Where did it come from?
GARCIA-NAVARRO: The pandemic. I mean, didn't it -- didn't --
JENNINGS: So, no -- no political decisions that were made.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Absolutely.
ALLISON: And that's why Democrats lost.
JENNINGS: So -- GARCIA-NAVARRO: And that's why -- so that's why Democrats lost.
JENNINGS: This is the heart of my question. You said inflation was falling, falling from where -- the depth of the damage that was done to the American economy and the American people, particularly working class Americans, while the Democrats were in charge, was not momentary. It was not a blip.
And what Brad was saying that the vice president said is correct. It will take a long time to --
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Do you think tariffs are the thing that that's going to solve that? This is, I think, the problem.
ALLISON: Right.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: The problem isn't -- I mean, you're right. Of course, you're right. That's why Biden lost. That's why Kamala Harris lost. That's why the Democrats got wiped out.
But you look at his policies and you ask yourself, are these policies making that problem better or worse? And the American people seem to be saying --
AXELROD: The verdict is very clear.
JENNINGS: That's a fair debate. But the most recent inflation data, even though the top line number did tick up a little bit, like on food inflation, food inflation right now is tamed. It's below a 20 year historic average. Grocery prices actually edged down last month.
ALLISON: Don't tell that to somebody --
(CROSSTALK)
JENNINGS: Energy -- energy is the key issue. Grant you that. But like on food, which went way out of control under Democrats, he actually has won the war on food inflation.
COATES: Hold on. I want to come back to this. I just went grocery shopping.
[21:25:00]
You can't tell me the prices have gone down.
JENNINGS: I read you the data from --
ALLISON: Well, we did that, too, in 2024.
COATES: We got more to talk about.
JENNINGS: What you're upset about is where Biden put the -- put.
(CROSSTALK)
COATES: No, what I'm upset about is I'm trying to talk and you keep going.
Still to come, just weeks before the midterms, V.P. Vance faces tough questions from Michigan voters, including a question about the war from a soldier's widower. That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COATES: Vice President Vance fielded some pretty tough questions from voters last night in a televised town hall.
At one point, he was confronted by the widower of a U.S. service member killed in the Iran war.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOEY AMOR, WIFE KILLED IN IRANIAN AIR STRIKE: My wife, Master Sergeant Nicole Amor, gave her life on March 1st, 2026. I am damn proud of my wife and I want to know how this administration is going to start holding those leaders accountable for the actions and the deaths of the soldiers that we -- that we honor and that we love.
[21:30:09]
VANCE: If there were failures, and I don't doubt there were, I just literally the first time I've heard of this is this conversation. And I want to fix that stuff. I do not want this stuff to happen.
And I promise you, I will take every single failure extremely seriously and will work on it. And I promise you that one of the ways that I'm going to show gratitude to your wife is by taking this seriously and trying to figure out what exactly happened and what exactly we can do better.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: My panel is back with me.
I mean, I heard if, stuff, promise --
ALLISON: Well, here's the thing. This was the Port Shuaiba facility. There were reservists in a triple wide trailer that wasn't sufficient to withstand the drone attacks that came. And they had Patriot missiles that weren't adequate to deal with drones. And it was a big mishap.
But the thing that that sort of bewildered me is it was a pretty big story. And it was in March. And the vice president said, well, I've not heard about this. I need to look into it.
How could that be? How could he not know?
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Yeah.
TODD: Well, they didn't identify where the where the man's wife was.
AXELROD: This was March 1st. It was a huge story. TODD: I watched the whole thing. He didn't identify -- he didn't
identify where it was.
AXELROD: Well, the other thing about it was he didn't ask him any questions. He didn't ask. You know, any of anything about it. He didn't ask the guy if he had children. He didn't interact.
TODD: Well, he knew he did. He actually --
AXELROD: I didn't see that.
TODD: He did. He actually did. He also said he also said they had learned things about positioning troops relative to where drone attacks are.
AXELROD: Yes. But --
TODD: And he said --
AXELROD: He made it sound like this was news to him.
TODD: Well, because he didn't know anything about this mans wife's situation specifically. We didn't say that. He -- the man said he was satisfied with the vice president's answer. And the vice president, of course, also said, there's nothing I can say to you --
AXELROD: He didn't look particularly satisfied, but the moderator said, well, he'll say he looked into it. Is that good enough for you? And he kind of shrugged and sat down. But all I'm saying is, the vice president of the United States gets -- he gets fully briefed on these things.
And the idea that he didn't know about this, which was a big, big story is really hard to believe.
COATES: He was also in addition to this, I think, very heartwarming moment, just acknowledging the loss of life and what our service members have endured in an act of war. He was also asked about the economy, which is very top of mind for many people. It's also intimately tied to what's happening. And he was pressed during the town hall on how his economic message differs from the president.
Here's what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HOST: There's a big difference between what you're saying right now and what president Trump says when he's out on the trail. He says its an A-plus economy. You say it's going to take time. You say you're frustrated at times. Which is it?
VANCE: Well, I think that what the president is saying is that we are seeing all of these massive new investments come into our country. But he would be the first person to tell you that you've got to build the factories first before you can employ the workers working in those factories. HOST: But to her point --
VANCE: You see that --
HOST: -- it's not an A-plus economy if you hear stories like this.
VANCE: Well, I think what we're doing is we're turning the ship around, Sandy. That's what I would say. And by the way, Sandy, there are things that we -- look, we need to do more. And we can certainly do better.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: Is that persuasive?
ALLISON: No. There are many portions of that, town hall that I just think, politics aside, everyone knows I don't like J.D. Vance. But if you can just call it balls and strikes. His answers were not very convincing. It looked like it was almost a trial to say, could I throw my hat in to run in 2028? And based on the way he responded to the viewers, there was a viewer that voted for Donald Trump and says, now he's going to vote for a Democrat here. He didn't feel compelling to give a real answer about why they should stick with him. And instead, it just felt very circular, actually.
COATES: It wasn't even -- a few weeks ago when he was saying he was asking the American voters to give Republicans more time, more time in office, to be able to accomplish the things that he believes are important in the economy and beyond. Does this 15 or 16 days ahead of the election, does this persuade voters who, as we know, traditionally the party in office suffers in the midterms, but there might be even more suffering now?
JENNINGS: Well, I think going out there and answering questions is always a good idea. I mean, the question is, would a town hall, you know, this late in the campaign change anybody's mind? I have my doubts about that.
To me, the real story here is about whether the vice president chooses to run for president at all. I mean, he opened the door to not running I think in this interview. And when you're trying to follow a two-term president, I think this underscores how historically difficult that has been. It's only happened a few times and not and not all that many times in modern history. And so, this is a preview of what he can expect if he were to actually run and go out and try to follow President Trump.
It's not going to be easy. I think it could be done because he's quite likely to be running against a Democrat who I think will be way far outside of the mainstream.
[21:35:05]
So I don't discount the possibility he could buck the historical trend here. But these kinds of questions and talking about why we need to continue on, he'll also have to find some ways to say, I would have done some things differently. And here's my own program and build his own coalition.
AXELROD: You know, I was in an administration that walked into a roaring economic crisis when we took over, and we knew that it was going to be very difficult. And you learn very quickly that -- you know, blaming the past administration, you know, asking for -- people are not patient and they shouldn't be patient because their lives are being roiled. And, you know, you need to, it's a very difficult position to be in.
And, you know, we, obviously, we paid the price for it, even though we -- the crisis was at its peak when we came, we paid the price for it. And even though we were making progress, you can't -- unless people feel it in their lives, you can't claim it. And asking for more time, after the president promised that he'd solve it in a day, you know, is not a good strategy.
TODD: You know, David, you're right. And both parties in this country are currently have very radically different ideas of how to fix the problem, the intractable -- intractable problems that we face. But in two years is a tyrannical amount of short, tyrannical, short amount of time to have a verdict on that.
AXELROD: Yeah. I mean, the difference we talked about this before. The difficulty here is its one thing not to solve the problem. It's another thing to make the problem worse. And what the American people believe right now is that by huge numbers, the president has made the problem worse. And that's a burden all the Republican candidates have --
(CROSSTALK)
JENNINGS: But the Republicans should have debated out on this, though. You know, Democrats are fussing in these campaigns about gas prices, legitimate thing. Has a Democrat ever today or in the future, proposed a single thing to make gas prices lower? No, it's been the policy of the Democratic Party to make gas prices higher and Republicans --
(CROSSTALK)
ALLISON: I -- one of the first things Donald Trump did was impose these tariffs, right? And much to the chagrin of a lot of Republicans, because I think you knew the writing on the wall would be that there would be some economic impact like you're facing right now. Just politically speaking, I know he was trying to do some swings for the fences. He could have left it at DOGE actually and said, I'm cleaning out the government.
His overly aggressive, overly egotistical, I know the answer to everything approach to this leadership in the first 100 to 2 years of his administration has him in the situation because the tariffs, people started feeling the squeeze, and then his approach to the Iran war. Now they're feeling it not just on goods but on gas. And so, those two things are just too hard --
TODD: As a political consultant, I'll grant you that pace is a big challenge for this administration. And that's a big challenge with swing voters.
COATES: You know whose challenged right now are farmers. Because up next, CNN went to the heartland to hear from them, who are frustrated as Trump's war on Iran is raising costs and crushing their livelihood.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:42:47]
COATES: Tonight, Republicans increasingly nervous about their chances in Iowa as farmers in the state face some tough economic headwinds.
Our CNN chief domestic correspondent, Phil Mattingly, went to the state to see exactly what they're dealing with.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CHIEF DOMESTIC CORRESPONDENT: Talk to enough farmers here in Iowa, and you start to recognize input costs are the most driving economic concern. Right behind me, diesel. Diesel prices have surged since the start of the Iran conflict. Machine repair and upkeep up more than 40 percent just since 2020.
Dip over here and you see fertilizer, other chemicals, always volatile, also surging in the wake of the start of the Iran conflict.
COREY GOODHUE, IOWA FARMER: The only option you have is keep doing the right thing. The best thing you can figure out moving forward and dust yourself off and keep going.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): It's Corey Goodhue's 20th harvest on ground his family has farmed for four generations.
GOODHUE: So, yeah, this is a -- this is my little cubby.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): The cost to grow an acre of corn in Iowa has more than doubled since 2006, to $920, and costs the climb in the good years they don't come down in the bad ones.
GOODHUE: The replacement cost of that tractor has doubled. And instead of it 2.75 percent interest, you're looking at 7.75 percent interest.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): Running beneath it all, the paradox of Iowa farm landowners.
MATTINGLY: As somebody not involved in the industry, it was like, these guys are so rich land wise. I don't understand what the issues are.
GOODHUE: It's the difference between the current portion of your balance sheet and the long term portion. You can have a lot of net worth, but no working capital.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): And farmers are particularly vulnerable to economic shocks. Since the Iran war began in late February, Iowa diesel is up more than 70 percent from about $3.50 a gallon to over $6. So, Corey opened his books.
GOODHUE: This is a heck of a look behind the curtain here bosses.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): What many people don't realize, before farmers ever climb into a combine, they have to be accountants, commodities traders and risk managers.
GOODHUE: I would say this time last year we weren't feeling real great about life because we had to do a lot of cutting to get this thing to a positive number, brutal amount of cutting.
[21:45:02]
MATTINGLY: What was driving the cutting? Like, why the need for cutting?
GOODHUE: Margins are just terrible, right?
MATTINGLY: So walk through like what the red numbers are.
GOODHUE: Well, either I did it wrong or, or inflation got me. The buck has to stop at this desk. I just didn't think $6 or $5.50 diesel was in the cards.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): The inputs for diesel this year are punishing.
GOODHUE: We would have budgeted 35,000. And so up to this point, we spent 23,000 and our last tank fill was probably -- I mean, you're going to exceed this by probably 20,000.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): And by October, with the crop already grown, there's no easy way to earn back $20,000 with output. So farmers here, they lean on each other, relying on local cooperatives like this one.
Farmers here are looking for power in numbers. Co-ops allow them to pool their grain and sell in bulk, giving them price leverage. But the laws of supply and demand, they're unforgiving. Corn was rallying until a recent USDA report identified a big jump in the amount of corn in storage. Corn futures fell 21 cents in a day. That's enough to blow a hole in an independent farmers budget.
BLAKE REYNOLDS, IOWA FARMER: We get a rally, get, you know, get grain prices kind of starting to come back where this $6 fuel maybe doesn't hurt quite as bad. And then, all of a sudden, oh, yeah, we forgot about this X billion amount of bushels that we just happen to find it laying in the back corner of the shed, you know, so they tank us. We're going to have to sit on grain a lot longer.
Now, of course, to go ahead and hope that prices kind of rebound. I obviously can't purchase ground. You know there's ground is $12,000, $13,000, $14,000, $15,000 an acre now. And I just can't purchase it and pencil it out in my lifetime or even my son's lifetime.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): To understand how we got here, we drove north to Ames. David Peters grew up on a farm and has spent nearly two decades at Iowa State studying rural Iowa. DAVID PETERS, PROFESSOR OF AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL POLICY, IOWA STATE
UNIVERSITY: Farmers are sort of forced on this treadmill. We call it the technology treadmill. When things happen unexpectedly, like with the fertilizer price increase and the fuel increases with, you know, the war in Iran, that threw everyone for a loop and it was at the worst possible time that it could have happened.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): And all of that has an impact at the voting booth, Iowa went for Barack Obama by nine points in 2008 and then went for Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024. But this year, the nonpartisan "Cook Political Report" rates its Senate race and an open House seat as toss ups and two more Republican held seats as leaning Democratic.
PETERS: It's a stereotype that everybody in a rural community or every farmer is full on MAGA. At least in farming communities, it's very much a purple state. I think it's possible to hold two ideas at the same time. So my conversations with farmers and farm groups, they generally support the president, you know, on his bringing manufacturing back to the United States. Why cause additional problems with irritating China? You know, having trade wars with very onerous tariffs. So we are an export-based economy. And so I think in a lot of Iowa, people feel, why are we paying the price for these policies?
MATTINGLY (voice-over): Steve Kuiper's family has lived that dream for four generations. But he's worried that today's economic reality means his grandchildren wont have the chance to continue the family legacy.
MATTINGLY: Is that your grandson?
STEVE KUIPER, PRESIDENT, IOWA CORN GROWERS ASSOCIATION: That's my grandson, four going on 25.
MATTINGLY: Your fourth generation?
KUIPER: Yes. They're fifth generation.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): Last month, Kuiper's association warned Iowa's entirely Republican congressional delegation that diesel was, quote, "accelerating the economic and mental stress farmers are feeling."
KUIPER: Everybody in agriculture is tired. It would be the best way to put it. They're just tired. They feel very beat up right now.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): Two weeks later, the president temporarily allowed untaxed farm diesel onto the highways through the end of the year.
KUIPER: Buddy of mine retired this year and he's constantly kind of, you know, checking on us. He goes, man, I'm glad I'm retired.
MATTINGLY: I mean, is there like a road map? Is there a path for now?
GOODHUE: I don't know, that's a good question. I was -- I wonder that a lot. So I don't know.
MATTINGLY: Other days you wake up and don't want to do it. GOODHUE: No, not this job. Are you kidding me? Bust out the door every
morning to do this job.
MATTINGLY: That's about as good as it gets.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COATES: Our thanks to Phil Mattingly. Great reporting as always.
Still ahead, its time to take your questions ahead to CNN.com/engagepolitics, and we'll bring you the answers in just a moment
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:54:29]
COATES: We have been getting so many questions and they're great ones from all of you. And I want to keep answering with my all star panel right now.
For the first one. If Democrats win the House but Republicans keep the Senate, what would actually change?
Ashley, you want to take it?
ALLISON: I think there could be some checks and balances on this current administration, particularly with the war. But honestly, you need compromise in Washington, D.C. to get laws actually passed. And I don't know if were going to see a lot of.
JENNINGS: Fiercely independent president with divided government in the last two years of a second term.
[21:55:02]
I'm just saying, there's -- there's possibilities here. And look at --
(CROSSTALK)
ALLISON: Your independent --
JENNINGS: And look what they -- look, he's, yes --
TODD: Deals could be made.
JENNINGS: Fiercely independent.
Deals could be made. And look what they just did on energy permitting, which is due to be voted on in the Senate and hopefully get done in the lame duck. There are deals to be made.
AXELROD: Is that in lieu of any kind of oversight on the part of the Democrats, because they're going to have to do something.
ALLISON: They're going to -- yeah. JENNINGS: Well, I have no Republican is under any illusion about what
the Democrats are going to do with oversight. But the president coming down in the last two years, I mean, there are legacy issues here that he might want to work on. I think there are deals to be made. That's my view.
COATES: We'll see.
Let me -- next question. Democrats have been overperforming since last November. Why are so many assuming the polls are underpolling Republicans?
Brad, what do you think?
TODD: Well, these are special elections and lower turnout elections. What the viewers are talking about. And Democrats do much better in those in this current political alignment we have in America now, because the more educated you are and more importantly, the more educated your neighbors are, the more likely you are to vote for Democrats. And if you get three sheepskins in a house, they will vote for everything, including dogcatcher. And if you're a blue collar voter, you don't necessarily think every election is worth voting for.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: I think -- I think he's kind of right, but I do think it's a canary in the coal mine. Everyone looks at these special elections because it shows where the wind is blowing.
AXELROD: It is. It's also true that pollsters are not inured to the fact that they've made some mistakes. Not in midterms, by the way. Midterm polls have been good, but I think they're weighting their polls differently now. I think they're weighting them to the 24 model to try and capture some Republicans.
And I -- I would be surprised if the polls were off, but these are marginal races. So, so many of these senate races are within three points, so --
TODD: I wouldn't wait them to '24. By the way, that may be overstating Republican.
AXELROD: Well, it may be.
TODD: Yeah.
ALLISON: I also think there is just the way politics is done in this country right now is totally different than four years ago, than eight years ago. And I'm not sure the polling industry has actually caught up to the way people consume information, communicate with one another, or not communicate with one another. There are no landlines.
So have you ever been polled? You get a text message. How many times you have to stop in the middle of the day to stop getting fundraising texts? So, you know, maybe the industry has to do something.
JENNINGS: You want some advice?
TODD: It's working. I can tell you it's working.
JENNINGS: We're so close. Just tune in to CNN on election night as we can.
AXELROD: We're going to find out soon enough.
JENNINGS: And we'll find out and we'll know. And all the polling conversations will go away.
COATES: All right. Look --
AXELROD: The president will abide by it.
COATES: Oh, we will see.
Well, listen, next question. Another question here. If Republicans lose both chambers, will they self-reflect or just blame President Biden? Scott?
JENNINGS: I think there are lessons to be learned. Win or lose, every election, and I suspect both parties will have lessons to learn here. So yeah, there'll be self-reflection. But, I don't know what the results are going to be. I'm not -- I'm not in the prediction business.
But yeah, there's -- there's lessons to learn after every race.
COATES: All right. Here's one. Can Democrats successfully make corruption a defining issue of the midterms, or will voters excuse almost anything from their own party due to polarization?
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Well, we're just about to find that out. I would say corruption already. We see that in polling has become a defining issue of these midterms because it's connected to people's pocketbooks. They don't want to see their elected leaders making money when they're hurting.
COATES: Here's a good question. How could Democrats halt or reverse Trump's policies on affordability and immigration, as well as all the war, as the war as he started? David, why don't you take that one?
AXELROD: Look, there are obviously they have the power of the budget, the power of the purse. And that is quite a bit of leverage as it relates to a number of these things. So, you know, these are complicated issues, but I think you're going to see them -- they have to move on some of these issues. It can't just all be about -- about oversight.
COATES: Do you think the Democrats are there now already in terms of being able to have a plan?
ALLISON: They need one.
I'm not -- I actually don't know. But I think that they need to be very clear that even if their messaging bills, they need to have a clear agenda for the economy, not just for outcomes of the midterms, but pretty soon after these midterms, exploratory committees, presidential campaigns, you need to have a plan to get this country on the right track.
COATES: Well, here's a plan. Someone is asking this question, does anyone really think Vance has a snowballs chance to be president in 2029? That's the question.
TODD: He's got to win the nomination first. But whoever wins the Republican nomination in -- after this -- in 2028 is going to have a great chance because the Democrats are going to nominate somebody who's totally crazy.
ALLISON: Oh --
TODD: This year's primaries on the Democratic side, this is only the beginning. And we've seen that. We've seen that on our side. This realignment doesn't stop with one election.
COATES: Last question here, I will ask you this one, because the year is now 2030. When looking back on 2026 midterms, what will be the most under-covered story that everyone missed but actually had a huge impact?
Lulu, anyone?
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Oh God.
COATES: Ashley, you had a good answer.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: You had a good answer. I know.
ALLISON: That there are no lineages in this -- these primaries. Like there's no, I was an Obama kid. I was an Biden. I was a Clinton person. It was just like a lot of these candidates in this cycle --
AXELROD: I think it's not about left and right. It's about insider and outsider.
ALLISON: That's right.
COATES: All right. Everyone, thank you.
AXELROD: You're right. You're right.
COATES: Remember, you can stream my show live or watch on demand anytime with an all access subscription, scan the QR code or go to your CNN.com/watch to learn more.
And thanks for watching.
