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The Situation Room
Deadline Approaches For Iraqi Constitution; Eric Rudolph Faces Victims; President Bush Visits Salt Lake City
Aired August 22, 2005 - 15:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Wolf Blitzer. And you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where news and information arrive at one place simultaneously. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States, indeed around the world, to bring you the day's top stories.
Happening right now, it's 11:00 p.m. in Baghdad. We are only one hour away from a deadline for a draft constitution. Will it lay the framework for a new Iraq or for the breakup of Iraq? The United States ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, he's standing by. We will speak with him live.
It's 1:00 p.m. in Salt Lake City, where President Bush leaves the privacy of his ranch for a public appeal to stay the course in Iraq.
And it's 3:00 p.m. in Atlanta, where serial bomber Eric Rudolph faces his victims, their families and a life in prison.
You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Time is running out for those drafting Iraq's new constitution. With the deadline less than an hour away, majority Shiites say they'll force through an incomplete document. President Bush is asking Americans for more time, painting the war in Iraq as a critical part of the overall war on terrorism.
CNN's Dana Bash is standing by live in Salt Lake City.
But we begin with CNN's Aneesh Raman in Baghdad. Aneesh?
ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, with minutes to go until Iraq's second constitutional deadline, the country's National Assembly has not convened yet.
Here's what we know. Earlier today, the Shia and the Kurds, the two main political blocs, reached an agreement among themselves on a draft constitution. It included notions, we understand, of federalism, of autonomous regions in Iraq. Since then, they have been trying to bridge the divide with the minority Sunni Arabs and reach a compromise with them.
That's what we understand is still taking place at this late hour. So, what we're waiting to see is whether a draft constitution does go forward -- we've been told all day it will -- and whether that draft constitution does encompass the views of the Sunni Arabs. If it does not, Wolf, it raises serious questions, both politically and in terms of security, as to what the Sunni response will be . Wolf?
BLITZER: Is it clear that the Sunnis right now are opposed to this draft document that apparently has the support of the Shiites and the Kurds?
RAMAN: We have heard very vocal rhetoric coming from Sunni negotiators, saying they are opposed to any mention of federalism, really, in this draft constitution. They want the entire conversation sidelined until a new government comes into power at the end of the year.
But what they are trying to do now is see if wording cannot be found that would appease the Sunnis. But we have heard very strong language from the Sunni negotiators in the past few hours suggesting that a compromise was hugely unlikely and that, if a draft constitution goes forward, they will work to veto it in a referendum come mid-October, Wolf.
BLITZER: And the reason they are so opposed to a federated -- a federation in Iraq is because the Kurds would have their autonomous region, their autonomous state, if you will, in the north, the Shiites in the south, eight or nine of the 18 provinces of Iraq right there. And that happens to be, among other things, where almost all, if not all, of Iraq's oil revenue comes from -- the south and the north.
RAMAN: Exactly. We have heard that an agreement was reached between the Shia and the Kurds that would say oil revenue would all go to the central government. But the Sunnis are wary, not just of oil that might not be included in that agreement and whether that would exclusively go to the regional governments, but, really, in a political sense, they're concerned of a weak central government and a weakened Iraq, a situation where you have virtually small states that are enormously powerful that form the semblance of a federation. They do not think that will help Iraq today. They do not think that is what needs to be in the constitution. That is the divide that is looking to be bridged at this late hour, with minutes to go, between the Shia-Kurd coalition and the Sunni minority.
BLITZER: What about the issue of Islam, the role of Islam in this new draft constitution? Has that been worked out?
RAMAN: I spoke with the president of Iraq's National Assembly just yesterday. He said that an agreement had been reached where Islam would -- quote -- "be a main source of legislation" and that no law could be passed that contradicted the tenets of Islam.
We do understand, though, other wording will say that another main source or another critical source will be the tenets of democracy and human rights, and that no law can be passed if it contradicts those. But it does raise questions about who will decide whether laws contradict Islam and whether it will be religious clerics. It puts Iraq down a path that women's rights groups specifically have been very concerned about, Wolf. BLITZER: Aneesh Raman reporting for us from Baghdad. Aneesh, stand by. We will be getting back to you -- the deadline less than one hour away.
We hope to be speaking shortly with the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad. He has been playing a very, very active role in trying to put this kind of deal together. We will ask him some questions as soon as he comes to our location in Baghdad.
Meanwhile, the president took a break from his vacation retreat today to warn Americans against what he's calling a policy of retreat. He defended his Iraq policy before the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Salt Lake City.
Our White House correspondent Dana Bash is there. She's joining us live. Dana?
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Wolf. Well, you know that we have heard the president urge patience, call for patience when it comes to Iraq many times before. Today, he did so in a blunt and rather unique way -- and that is by using, for the first time, we believe, a number that critics say is proof that his Iraq policy is a failed one.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We've lost 1,864 members of our armed forces in Operation Iraqi Freedom and 223 in Operation Enduring Freedom. Each of these men and women left grieving families and loved ones back home.
Each of these heroes left a legacy that will allow generations of their fellow Americans to enjoy the blessings of liberty. And each of these Americans has brought the hope of freedom to millions who have not known it. We owe them something. We will finish the task that they gave their lives for.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: Now, this is the first time we have seen the president in about eight days. He had been at his ranch, as -- not in public -- in the public view at all, for about eight days, as the anti-war protests continued, even without Cindy Sheehan there, the one who, of course, sparked them.
He appeared there to be responding to her chief complaint that she believes that her son died in vain, but, apparently, in a way that Cindy Sheehan probably would not like, because she has been complaining over and over again that she does not like the president defending the Iraq war by talking about troops who died. But that is certainly how he and the White House believes it is important to keep talking about Iraq, not only in terms of the importance of that mission, but the importance of not allowing troops to die in vain. And, very quickly, he also defended the war in vintage Bush style, Wolf. He talked about it as an important thing to continue because he explained it as a broader part of the war on terrorism, once again evoking Osama bin Laden's name, which is not going to make his critics very happy.
BLITZER: All right, Dana Bash in Salt Lake City. Dana, we will be checking back with you. Thank you very much.
We will get back to the situation in Iraq shortly, including our interview with the U.S. ambassador to Iraq.
But there's other news we're following as well, including a highly organized smuggling operation that officials say took years to bust. Now there are dozens of indictments, dozens of arrests.
Our Deborah Feyerick joining us live from New York with details. Deb?
DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, this is an international counterfeit ring allegedly run by Asians here and abroad, some 60 people charged, among other things, with racketeering.
Federal agents say they smuggled hundreds of millions of counterfeit cigarettes into the U.S., along with counterfeit bills, what is known as super notes -- some $4 million worth of high-grade phony bills. And the counterfeit goods came into ports in Newark, New Jersey; and Los Angeles, California. They were smuggled inside shipping containers marked toys and rattan furniture.
This was part of a four-year investigation, which essentially ended over the weekend, a pretty elaborate sting in which undercover agents enticed some of the alleged suspects into the United States by inviting them to a wedding on board a private yacht near Atlantic City.
Agents call this operation One Stop Criminal Shopping.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thirty defendants were arrested. And they have been charge with numeral fed -- numerous federal offenses, including violations of the federal racketeering statute, as well as trafficking in counterfeit and contraband goods. The defendants who are named in the RICO indictment are essentially accused of running an extremely sophisticated smuggling operation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: Now, during the undercover operation, it appears that undercover agents actually talked to the alleged criminals about the possibility of smuggling anti-aircraft weapons into the United States. And though that never happened, federal agents say most dangerous is that the men in custody were actually willing to bring those weapons to the States. Now, the men are scheduled to appear in federal court in Camden, New Jersey, today. It's unlikely any will be released on bail, since it appears the majority are not U.S. citizens. Wolf?
BLITZER: All right, Deborah Feyerick, thank you very much for that.
Time now for the "Cafferty File," Jack Cafferty standing by in New York.
What's on tap this week, Jack? Let's start right now.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Well, guess what? Saddam Hussein, Wolf, has a pen pal.
Two Jordanian newspapers published a letter yesterday that the Iraqi leader wrote to a Jordanian friend. And in this letter, Saddam casts himself as a martyr. He writes that he is ready to sacrifice himself for the Arab cause, and he's urging others to do the same. I guess that's why, when the war started, he ran and hid. And when he was discovered, we found him cowering in a hole in the ground, like some little whipped puppy.
But now he says he's a martyr and he's ready to die for the cause.
Nice shot of Saddam's forehead.
The International Red Cross delivered the letter. It's the first one that he reportedly has written to anybody outside his family since he was found in that hole in the ground in December of '03. He's facing trial, possible execution, for a number of crimes, including the 1982 massacre of fellow Muslims. The question this hour is, how would you answer Saddam Hussein's letter?
You can e-mail us at CaffertyFile -- which is one word -- @CNN.com. You know, something like, would you prefer to be executed with a blindfold or do you want to see the bullet coming?
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: And we also want to know, Jack, how do you start that letter, Dear Mr. President, Dear Mr. Dictator, Dear Saddam?
CAFFERTY: Hey, weasel.
BLITZER: Those are -- those are questions that our viewers probably have feelings on.
CAFFERTY: Hey, condemned weasel, would be the salutation.
BLITZER: All right. That's how you feel. And I'm sure a lot of our viewers feel the same way.
Jack, thanks. We are going to have a good week this week here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
CAFFERTY: Let's hope. BLITZER: Jack Cafferty with the "Cafferty File."
We're standing by for the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad. He is expected to join us shortly, with about 50 minutes to go in this deadline before -- the deadline before the Iraqi draft constitution is supposed to be made public, supposed to be agreed upon. He's been directly involved, very actively involved in this process. We will speak with Ambassador Khalilzad. That is coming up shortly.
Also still coming up, other news we're following. The Olympic Park bomber apologizes. Eric Rudolph confronted by the family of his victims. Find out what happened today in court.
Plus, rescue on the high seas. The Coast Guard springs into action to search for possible survivors after a boat sank with dozens of people on board.
Also, sudden death. A pro football player drops dead after a game. We will have the latest on what happened.
And Olivia Newton-John, her boyfriend mysteriously disappeared in California. Police are asking for your help. We will have details on the story.
You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: One man's confessed terror campaign against abortion, gay rights and the government has now officially come to an end.
In an Atlanta courtroom today, convicted serial bomber Eric Rudolph was ordered to serve a total of four consecutive sentences of life in prison, plus 120 years for his attacks. During the hearing, Rudolph expressed remorse for his attack at the 1996 Olympics, saying -- and I'm quoting now -- "I accept full responsibility for the consequences. I would do anything to take that night back. And, to the victims, I apologize."
We want to get a little bit more on the Rudolph sentencing by getting a view from inside the courtroom as the dramatic events unfolded.
For that, CNN's Henry Schuster is joining us live with more.
Henry, you've written a whole book on this subject, an excellent book. But give our viewers a sense of what happened inside that courtroom today.
HENRY SCHUSTER, CNN PRODUCER: Wolf, there was a lot of anger inside the courtroom today.
There were 14 victims from Rudolph's various bombings in Atlanta that spoke. They began by hearing from John Hawthorne, whose wife, Alice, was in Centennial Park with her daughter that night. Alice, of course, was killed. And Fallon Stubbs, her daughter, was wounded. And John Hawthorne said that it should have been he and Alice's wedding anniversary today. But instead, every year on this date since 1996, he's felt a great deal of anger and a great deal of rage. And he was hoping, today, he'd finally feel some peace about what happened. Instead, he turned to Eric Rudolph and he said, I hope you live a long, long life. You're a young man. I hope you live a long, long life and spend it all behind bars, never seeing another -- the beauty of another sunrise, never having the chance to walk in the parts of North Carolina that you say that you love so much.
And a lot of victims who were there today expressed a lot of anger. One woman, the last woman, looked at Eric Rudolph -- who was not making a lot of eye contact, it should be noted, with any of the victims -- and she said, I hope you rot in hell.
Eric Rudolph, for his part, when it came time, he did not look at the victims. He put his head down and he read a statement. Much of the statement had been written and released in April, when he agreed to the plea deal. He did apologize at the end for the bombing in Centennial Park. However, he pointedly did not apologize for any of the other bombings. And last month, in Birmingham, when he faced a similar sort of situation for his sentencing there, he was very -- he was very arrogant and boastful about why he felt he had the right to bomb an abortion clinic.
So, today, an apology about Centennial Park, but no apology for anything else. And, in fact, Fallon Stubbs, when she came out afterwards and she was asked about the apology, she said she felt that he said only the minimum that he needed to say.
BLITZER: Henry Schuster reporting for us outside the courthouse. Henry, thank you very much.
You're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where video and reporters from around the world are coming into CNN in real time. We're watching several stories right now. These are live pictures from the assembly, Iraqi National Assembly in Baghdad, delegates getting ready to consider a draft constitution.
The Shiites are on board. The Kurds are on board. The Sunnis clearly not on board. We're watching this story. We're also waiting to speak with the United States ambassador to Iraq. We will get his inside word on what is happening. We will go back. It's about 40 minutes or so from the deadline, the second deadline for getting this draft constitution approved.
Some of the largest -- the nation's largest airlines are having some major employee or financial problems.
CNN's Ali Velshi is following the airline industry, the "Bottom Line", for us. And he's joining us now live from New York. Ali, what's the latest?
ALI VELSHI, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, good to see you. This is a bit dizzying, trying to figure out which airline we should be concentrating on from hour to hour. Obviously, the big story is Northwest Airlines. But, in fact, some of the attention today is going back to Delta.
Let's look at Northwest, first of all. This is day three -- Saturday, Sunday, Monday -- flying with replacement mechanics. It's a mechanics union that's on strike, 4,300 people, roughly 4,400 people. A lot of those are mechanics. A lot of them are also cleaners and custodians and things like that.
Northwest has been claiming that it can continue to fly indefinitely without its mechanics. Right now, they've only had some delays. They have got some aircraft that are out of service entirely. They are not entirely forthcoming with us about how many. But when I spoke to Northwest earlier today, they said very clearly that they can go on indefinitely without their mechanics. That's one part of the story which I will be giving you a little more detail on later, because the markets are not enjoying it today.
Delta, again, also in a problem. Wolf?
BLITZER: Well, what about the markets? Well, you raised the subject. How does it look like right now? It's more than a half an hour from the closing bell.
VELSHI: Well, we had a -- we had a market that started off sort of tepid and it's back to being tepid right now. This business with, you know, between Merck and the airlines and oil prices, it's -- it's sort of taking its toll on the market.
One thing that it isn't helping, as I was mentioning, Delta Airlines, which had a deal with its pilots. Now that's coming into question. So, a lot of credit agencies and investors worried about that. We've got a Dow and a NASDAQ that are pretty much flat right now. I will keep you posted on how it goes.
BLITZER: All right, Ali. Thanks very much.
VELSHI: OK.
BLITZER: We will check back with you shortly.
Still to come here in THE SITUATION ROOM, President Bush, a tough war and no constitution yet. We're standing by. The impact on U.S. troops fighting in Iraq. We will have a discussion of that.
Plus, stem cells from skin cells. Harvard scientists say they are getting closer to a breakthrough. Does that eliminate the need for human embryos? I will speak live with the White House domestic policy adviser.
And mystery on the California coast. Olivia Newton-John's boyfriend vanished without a trace. He's been missing for over a month, and now police are asking for your help.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: We're only about a little bit more than a half an hour away from the deadline in Baghdad for the new draft constitution to be approved by the National Assembly.
You are looking at these live pictures from the National Assembly in Baghdad, delegates reconvening right now. We're told the Iraqi Shiites and the Iraqi Kurds -- that's the overwhelming majority of this assembly -- they're on board. The Iraqi Sunnis, though, we are told, still on the outs. We are watching this. We're also standing by to speak live with the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad. We will go live to Baghdad as soon as all that unfolds.
We're watching this story minute by minute.
At the same time, CNN's Zain Verjee is joining us now live from the CNN Center in Atlanta with a quick look at some other stories making news. Hi, Zain.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, Wolf.
CNN has learned that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has spoken with the Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon, to praise him for the successful completion of the withdrawal of settlements from Gaza. The confirmation of the conversation came in a statement from Ariel Sharon's office.
The evacuation was completed earlier today. Tears of grief were shed also by Jewish settlers escorted by Israeli troops from the last settlement to be removed from the region. Only a handful of settlers had to be carried from homes in the otherwise quiet withdrawal from Netzarim. Two more settlements are due to be evacuated from the West Bank tomorrow.
The Coast Guard says it's searching for 31 Cubans whose speedboat capsized in the treacherous waters of the Florida Strait. Three Cubans rescued last night said the boat sank 30 miles north of coastal Matanzas, Cuba. The three survivors were returned to Cuba.
A moderate earthquake shook coastal Italy. Experts say the magnitude 4.5 quake was centered under the seabed near the town of Anzio. It briefly rocked Rome and nearby communities, sending people fleeing from their homes.
The Coast Guard says it is trying to figure out what happened to the long-time boyfriend of singer Olivia Newton-John. Forty-eight- year-old Patrick McDermott vanished seven weeks ago. He failed to return from an overnight fishing trip off Southern California's coast on the 30th of June. Newton-John says she hopes McDermott is safe and well and asks for help from anyone with information. Wolf.
BLITZER: Zain, getting back to the situation in the Middle East, you report that the Israelis are going to be starting their withdrawal from the four smaller West Bank settlements as early as tomorrow. What's the expectation for a confrontation there? VERJEE: Well, there is anticipation that there will be a confrontation. A lot of people are asking, is this going to be smooth or not?
But the situation is basically this. There are four settlements that have been earmarked to be dismantled in the West Bank. Two have already been cleared by the residents themselves. They've just left. Now, there are two others remaining, Sanur and Homesh. And the Israeli army is saying it is bracing for a confrontation. There are about 2,000 or so protesters that are holed up. And, Wolf, they've got stun grenades with them. They've got tear gas canisters. And also, apparently, they are planning on throwing burning tires onto cooking oil as the troops come in to pull them out.
So, by all accounts, it appears as though there's going to be a tough fight. I would like to point out, also, though, that, according to polls in Israel, the majority of Israelis do support disengagement.
BLITZER: Zain Verjee reporting for us. Zain, thanks very much.
And please stay with CNN for complete coverage of this Israeli pullout from these settlements on the West Bank, now that the pullout from Gaza, the settlements, is complete.
I want to show our viewers some live pictures we're getting in right now. These are live pictures. Air Force One has now landed in Boise, Idaho, the next stop on the president's speaking tour. He spoke earlier today -- you saw it live here on CNN -- in Salt Lake City, Utah, before war veterans, making the case for the situation in Iraq, making the case for the U.S.-led military confrontation with the insurgents, Iraq, making the case for the political developments as well.
The president will be spending some time in Boise, Idaho. We will have extensive coverage of that.
We're also following the deadline in Iraq, a draft constitution due by the top of the hour. A little bit more than a half-an-hour from now. But will it bring Iraqis together or drive them violently apart? Will there be democracy or a civil war? We will analyze and assess what's going on.
Plus, sudden death taking on a new meaning on the football field. A powerful pro lineman, seemingly the picture of strength, but what went wrong?
And the British prime minister, Tony Blair's, vacation location a secret no longer.
That story next hour when we go inside politics.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Back now to our top story: A deadline now only minutes away -- less than 30 minutes away -- for Iraq's draft constitution. Is Iraq on the right track or on a train wreck? Those are questions that we're going to cope with right now.
Will the constitution unite the country or split the country. In our "Security Council" segment, Lawrence Korb the former assistant defense secretary, now with the center for American Progress, joining us. And Reuel Gerecht, a former Middle East specialist with the CIA. He's now with the American Enterprise Institute here in Washington. We'll get to them in just a moment, but first let's go back to CNN's Aneesh Raman in Baghdad with an update on the status of this draft constitution. Aneesh?
RAMAN: Wolf, the meeting is now about to take place -- the room where the National Assembly is set to convene now, almost entirely full. We have seen the president walk in, as well as vice presidents. We heard from Ahmed Chalabi speaking to the press just moments ago, that a draft constitution has been given by Iraq's constitutional committee to the National Assembly and that they will be announcing such in a short time at this gathering.
So it seems they do have a draft constitution. Chalabi said that there were some outstanding issues. What we are waiting to see now is exact wording. It would be hugely unlikely, Wolf, that a compromise was reached at the eleventh hour between the Shia-Kurd coalition and the Sunnis who had hit an impasse during the day over the issue of federalism. Would it be included in the constitution?
If we do see a draft document emerging now that does not -- that does -- sorry -- includes the notion of federalism, it will raise serious concerns about the Sunni involvement in this political process and what that will mean for the largely Sunni-led insurgency. Will Sunnis as a whole, feel more disenfranchised? And will they also politically vote this constitution down in the referendum come mid- October? Wolf?
BLITZER: All right. We'll get back to you, Aneesh. Thanks very much. Less than a half an hour for this deadline to be met. Let's bring in our guests: Lawrence Korb, Reuel Gerecht. Reuel, let me start with you. If the Sunnis are opposed to this draft constitution, it will be approved by the National Assembly because the Kurds and Shia certainly have the votes. But remember, the Sunnis are the backbone of this insurgency. What does this do to the future of Iraq?
REUEL MARC GERECHT, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INST.: I don't think this constitution is going to make or break Iraq. I think the constitutional process is still key and the constitutional process appears to be healthy. I think it is critical that sooner or later the minority Sunni community which has ruled Iraq since 1921, learns that they can no longer dictate the future and I would expect a great deal of brinkmanship. I would not expect this to, you know, move the insurgency one way or the other. I think it's going to continue. You're going to have to deal with it. But I expect the political process, which is key, to keep going on. BLITZER: Let's listen to what one Sunni member of this constitutional committee, Larry, said, only a little while ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What happened is that they are trying to leave us aside and go to do the constitution by themselves. If they pass it without consensus, we believe that this is illegal and should not pass.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: There are some fears, as you know, Larry, that this constitution could set the stage for an accelerated civil war, if there hasn't been a civil war yet.
LAWRENCE KORB, CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS: I think you already have a civil war. And if the constitution doesn't satisfy the Sunnis, I think it will even get worse, because there's a lot of Sunnis sitting on the fence who haven't actively helped the insurgents or who have even, some of them, helped the coalition troops. If they feel they're frozen out of the process, I think it will guarantee that this civil war, which already exists, will get worse.
BLITZER: Yes. And I want to show our viewers some live pictures: The delegates are now in the room at the assembly. They are going to be getting this document. We'll continue to watch it as the deadline approaches, about 25 minutes or so from now.
One of the key issues -- let's go through some of the issues, Reuel -- is the role of Islam in this new draft constitution. It will be, according to all of the reports, a primary source of the new laws, the new constitution and that no laws will be allowed to be passed by the new Iraqi assembly once it gets off the ground, that are in violation of Islam. Is this an Islamic state that is emerging?
GERECHT: No. I don't think so. In fact, I mean, think you're going to have an enormous difference of opinion amongst the Shia community on that and the Kurdish community. I would suggest that actually that is one of the elements that binds the Shia and the Sunnis together.
BLITZER: To have clerics, to have radical Shiite clerics on the Supreme Court of Iraq? Because that's one of the items on the agenda.
GERECHT: You're not -- that's not at all clear that you're going to have radical Shiite clerics on the supreme court. In fact, I think you have an enormous checks and balances within the Shiia community and I'm pretty certain that Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who's the senior cleric of Iraq, is not going to allow any type of theocracy to develop
BLITZER: You agree with that -- let me give that to Larry - you agree (ph)?
KORB: No. I think you can have an Islamic republic. The real question is, how Islamic and how republic? But there's no doubt in my mind the Shias are going to get power and they're going to lean toward Islam, rather than sort of a democracy, which says this whole idea of why we went there, I think, really is being undermined. At best, we can hope to leave an Islamic republic. GERECHT: I would disagree with that.
BLITZER: Well, tell our viewers why. And I just want to point out that we want to welcome our CNN International viewers who are joining us as well. We're speaking with Reuel Gerecht, a former CIA Middle East analyst, and Lawrence Korb, who worked at the Pentagon during the Reagan administration.
We're watching these live pictures, also want to show our viewers. There you see some of the top officials of the Iraqi parliament. They're walking in. Iyad Allawi, the former interim prime minister, sitting down right there with the light sport coat, on this constitutional process, supposedly going to wrap up within the next 20 minutes or so.
We were discussing the issue of Islam in the new Iraq. And you're not concerned -- yesterday I heard you on ABC say, Reuel, that you aren't even concerned about women, necessarily, the role that women will have, the freedom that women will have in the new Iraq, in the short term. That's not a high priority, necessarily. I suspect a lot of Iraqi women will disagree with you, but those were controversial remarks you made.
GERECHT: Yes. What I'm saying there is that as long as women have the political right to vote, that is the sine qua non for the democratic process and I think...
BLITZER: But what if their rights on marriage and divorce and inheritance are ruled by the Sharia, by Islamic law? A lot of secular Iraqi women won't necessarily like that, because the deck is sort of stacked in the favor of men.
GERECHT: Well, it's entirely possible that many of them may not like it. But as long as, in fact, all women have the right to vote, eventually you're going to have this thing work out in a balance. I think it's important to realize that, you know, if this had been required of Western democracies, Western democracies would never have developed. So, I think one needs to have a historical perspective on this.
BLITZER: What about the...
KORB: Well, if you want to go back a couple hundred years, that's true. But things have changed an awful lot.
GERECHT: 1920.
KORB: And the administration basically is adamant that women get these rights and not be subject to the things for Islamic law in terms of divorce, equal property settlements, things like that. So, I think that if, in fact, it occurs where women are only allowed to vote, but you know, have a lot of the other rights circumscribed, I think this is going to be seen as, again, us not accomplishing our objectives there.
BLITZER: These are -- I want to show our viewers, once again, live pictures we're getting in from Baghdad -- the National Assembly there getting ready to consider this draft constitution that has been forged over these many weeks and months. There was a delay one week ago. The deadline coming up in about 20 minutes, midnight Baghdad time, 4:00 p.m. here on the East Coast of the United States.
I want you to listen, Larry, to what the president said -- the president of the United States, George W. Bush, said earlier today before the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Salt Lake City, Utah.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: In spite of violence, the Iraqi people are building a nation that secures freedom for its citizens and contributes to peace and stability in that region. Now Iraq's leaders are once again defying the terrorists and pessimists by completing work on a democratic constitution.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: I want your reaction. But it is encouraging, you have to admit, to see what we're seeing right now in these live pictures coming from Baghdad -- the parliament, if you will, discussing, debating this whole issue. The Kurds and the Shiites on board. The Sunnis arguably have themselves to blame for not really being all that much involved in this process.
KORB: Well, there's no doubt about the fact that they are going to have a constitution, they are going to set up a government. And I think that's good. And then eventually they're going to have to decide for themselves and provide for their own security.
What I hope is, as soon as they have this election, that we begin to withdraw, because right now we're part of the problem there. And eventually they're going to have to do it by themselves.
BLITZER: The assembly speaker has now sat down. They are about ready to receive this document.
The key issue, will the Sunnis who participated in drafting this document -- and there weren't all that many to begin with -- will they be on the sidelines? Will they be on board? Will they support it? And what issues will be left out of this document, in other words, will they have to resolve in the weeks and months to come?
One of the major issues, the Sunnis are deeply opposed to in this document, is it calls for a federated Iraq, semi-autonomous Kurdish state in the north, which already effectively exists. But more worrisome to the Sunnis is a Shiite-led state in eight or nine of the provinces -- largely in the south, where they are the clear majority -- out of Iraq's 18 provinces. And it's in those provinces in the south and in the provinces in the north where all of the Iraqi oil exists. That's where the money is, if you will.
And the Sunnis who live in the central and western part of Iraq probably are feeling pretty much left out. GERECHT: Yes, I think that's true. I mean, I think federalism is in great part about the oil distribution. And I think the Sunnis, again, who have a long history of ruling the country, are looking at a situation of worst-case scenario were to develop that they wouldn't have the oil.
I would also suggest that part of this is they still haven't given up on the idea that they will become the dominant community somehow, and a federalist structure would stop that from ever happening.
BLITZER: How worried are you, Larry, as we look at these live pictures -- the Iraqi National Assembly getting ready to consider this draft document -- how worried are you that many Iraqis will see this document, not so much the result of Iraqi negotiation, but U.S. involvement?
Because the United States ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, whom we hope to speak with shortly here on CNN, he's widely reported to have been directly, aggressively, intimately involved in trying to bridge many of these differences.
KORB: Well, I am worried because he took a much different role than John Negroponte did. When John Negroponte was our ambassador, he stayed back and let the government do its own thing. And to the extent that that's a perception, that hurts us. Because in that final analysis, this government has to be seen as legitimate by the Iraqi people, not a creature of the United States or any foreign power. And to the extent that we can minimize that, I think we should.
I think the ambassador has played way too public a role this time.
BLITZER: You agree with that?
GERECHT: In great part, yes. I mean, I think certainly the ambassador should stay far away from the religious issue.
I mean, if I can go back for a moment, I mean, I think it's very important to pull in the traditional clergy, both Shiite and Sunni, into the political process. And without them, you aren't going to have a successful democratic experiment. And I think we, the Americans, should be very, very careful of what they do there.
BLITZER: The understanding I have is that, based on my conversation yesterday with the Iraqi government spokesman, a top adviser to the prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Laith Kubba -- spoke with him on CNN's LATE EDITION yesterday. He said what they are looking for is the Afghan constitution as a model for the Iraqi constitution.
As both of you know, and many of our viewers in the United States and around the world know, is that the U.S. ambassador to Iraq right now, Zalmay Khalilzad was the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan and played a very important role in getting their constitution off the ground as well. Would you be happy if the Afghan constitution becomes the model for Iraq?
GERECHT: I'm not really sure that makes a lot of sense.
I think what's more important is that the Transitional Administrative Law, which is the interim constitution, is really what they use as the benchmark. I think that's what the Iraqis are actually doing. They are sort of playing off that document, either in opposition or in support. And I think that's a much healthier way to do this.
BLITZER: All right.
Hold on one second. Aneesh Raman is watching all of this from Baghdad with us.
Aneesh, tell our viewers what's happening right now. It's - what? -- about 15 minutes to go before the deadline.
RAMAN: Well, we've seen all the major players, Wolf, enter this room -- the president of Iraq, Jalal Talabani: the prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari; the former prime minister, Iyad Allawi.
In the center of your screen, sitting at the head table is the president of Iraq's National Assembly, Hachim al-Hasani. He is likely the one that would make any announcement about what we can expect from today.
But all likelihood, and all reports suggest that a draft constitution has already been submitted by the constitutional committee to Iraq's National Assembly, that they will announce that shortly.
And again, as we've been talking about all afternoon, the key question will be how specifically this document deals with the issue of federalism, as well as with the issue of Islam, and whether that alienates some groups, specifically, of course, the Sunnis, who did not want federalism in this document.
So we are waiting to see the exact wording. But again, all expectations that the speaker will announce that a draft constitution has been submitted. The deadline has been met. The question now, at what cost? Wolf?
BLITZER: All right. Aneesh, stand by. We're going to be getting back to you, about 14 minutes to go before this second deadline lapses.
We'll watch what's happening in Baghdad. Keep these pictures up for our viewers.
Reuel Gerecht, the president spoke out today, a day after Chuck Hagel, the Republican senator from Nebraska -- he was on this program in THE SITUATION ROOM last Thursday, made some comparisons between what is happening now in Iraq, what happened many years ago in Vietnam.
But he also said this yesterday. Listen to what Senator Hagel said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
U.S. SENATOR CHUCK HAGEL (R), NEBRASKA: If the Iraqi people cannot defend themselves, govern themselves, support themselves, over the next certainly six to 12 months, then we've lost.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Can the Iraqis do that over the next six to 12 months?
GERECHT: Well, I think that timeline is absurd. I mean, I think that is rushing it far, far, far too much.
I mean, I think the Iraqis have made progress. They haven't obviously made as much progress as we would want. This is a very, very difficult process.
But all I would suggest to the senator is that if the Americans were to start this expeditious withdrawal, if you look back at the formative American actions that gave birth to bin Ladenism -- that is, the American flight from Somalia, the American retreat from Beirut, and also our timid reaction to the attack on the USS Cole in Aden in 2000 -- I think what we'd see in Iraq is if we withdrew, you take all those, combine them and inject speed and that's basically what you would do to Sunni jihadism. We would be reaping the whirlwind.
BLITZER: What do you think about that six to 12-month timeframe that Senator Hagel speaks?
KORB: I think he's making a very good point. People talk about, you have to train the Iraqi security forces -- nobody is training the insurgents.
What it is, is motivation. Are they motivated to defend themselves? Because at some point we've got to leave. And if they don't have the motivation now, when are they going to get it?
And I think they are using us as a crutch. And if they can't do it now, once they have a constitution, if you do not see them doing that, then I think you need to be very worried, as Senator Hagel said.
BLITZER: All right. Stand by, guys. We're going to take a quick break. We're going to watch the situation unfold. We're -- what -- only about 12 minutes or so away from the deadline in Baghdad for the approval of this draft constitution. It's supposed to be submitted in the next few minutes. We'll watch these pictures unfold. We'll go back to Baghdad live.
Much more of our coverage right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BLITZER: Welcome back. The draft Iraqi constitution has now been submitted to the Iraqi parliament, the National Assembly. It is going to be voted on momentarily. The deadline only about nine minutes away from now. We're watching what's happening in parliament right now.
All of Iraq's elected leaders are in this room right now. They are getting ready to consider this draft document. We will watch it unfold. And that's Hoshyar Zebari, the man who just sat down in the picture, the foreign minister of Iraq, one of the Kurdish leaders in this government.
We're continuing our coverage of this important story -- potentially historic story. Reuel Gerecht joining us, former CIA analyst. Lawrence Korb, former Pentagon official, as well.
Reuel, as you watch this situation unfold right now, there are clearly moments of opportunity for the Iraqis, for the United States and other coalition partners. But there are also pitfalls, serious pitfalls, that remain. What is your greatest concern right now?
GERECHT: Well, I think the greatest worry is that you will see an increase -- if this political process stalls, comes off the rails -- that you will see an increase of revenge killing. I mean, I actually disagree. I don't think we're in a civil-war setting. We're far from it. But if we did start to see massive revenge killings, particularly of Sunnis by the Shiites and the Kurds, because of what happened during Saddam's rule, then I think we would be in a very, very dangerous situation and it's certainly possible we could get there.
BLITZER: What do you think, Larry?
KORB: Well, if you can't keep security during the next seven or eight months when you have the ratification of the constitution and the election, then I think you've got a big problem. And I suggest that we do what we did before the election last January -- temporarily increase the troop strength so you can get that security situation.
BLITZER: Well, they're planning on doing that between now and December.
KORB: Right.
BLITZER: To go up from the 138,000 U.S. troops -- to move it up maybe as high as 160,000. KORB: I would certainly make sure that you do that and do that as quickly as you can, because if you don't have security, then nothing else matters to the people. If you are worried about life and limb, you're not going to be concerned about democracy and these other questions.
BLITZER: Does the U.S. and its coalition partners, Reuel, have enough troops on the ground right now, or too many?
GERECHT: I would say not enough. I mean, I don't think we've ever had enough troops in Iraq. I mean, we have fought a very odd counterinsurgency campaign where we take towns and then we let them go.
BLITZER: Let's listen in as the speaker of the Iraqi parliament is addressing the assembly right now. Let's listen in via a translator.
HACHIM AL-HASANI, SPEAKER, IRAQI NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (through translator): ... constitution. But, there are some points that are still outstanding and need to be addressed in the next three days. The draft constitution was received according to Article 61-A. And there are -- there is a determination by all parties that there should be a consensus amongst all parties over those points so that the constitution is satisfactory to all.
All those forces during the next -- the coming three days, will try, God willing, to reach the consensus over some of the points that are still outstanding, that still are not approved by all.
So, during the next -- the coming three days, God willing, as the decision we've taken stated on the 30th of last month, that we will be able to carry out some amendments, and we will carry out and execute that decision within the next three days so the draft constitution was received and we will work to address the outstanding points, God willing.
The National Assembly, during the next few days, will also work to issue a resolution for the new election resolution and the National Assembly will convene to deliberate the election.
We thank all those brothers and leaderships that worked with utmost effort and put forth and sacrificed their resources so that they can bring about something that is satisfactory to the Iraqi people. God bless everybody and God willing, we will convene within the next three days to finish this issue once and for all. And may God reward you. And the session is over -- is adjourned.
BLITZER: And there you have it -- another three days. They need another three days, the Iraqi National Assembly, to go forward and try to resolve remaining differences in this draft constitution. You heard it live here on CNN.
Hachim al-Hasani, the speaker of the Iraqi parliament, telling the delegates that they don't have the job done. They need another deadline. That would make the next deadline Thursday.
Aneesh Raman is in Baghdad, our correspondent there watching this. Somewhat of a surprise, Aneesh. We thought they would get it resolved by tonight's deadline. Three minutes or so, three-and-a-half minutes before midnight, Baghdad time. They did not. The speaker is saying they need three more days. What do you make of this, Aneesh?
RAMAN: Well, Wolf, they met today the legal requirement for the deadline to be met. The deadline was met today with a draft constitution that is, as the speaker said, incomplete. So, instead of amending the law to extend the process, as they chose to do last week, instead, they have met the deadline, but given themselves three days to debate some outstanding issues.
There was no requirement for this National Assembly to vote on a draft constitution by today. The only requirement was that they receive one. So they have received one that it seems still has the issues, perhaps of federalism one could assume, outstanding. They have now given themselves three more days to try what they could not do in the past seven, what they could not do in the past seven months -- reach compromise with the Sunnis on how the wording of federalism will appear in this document.
So now, another deadline looms. The questions, three days from now, will, of course, again center on whether the document they vote on addresses the concerns of the Sunnis. But today an attempt really to meet the deadline, but not meet it -- to give themselves more time and try and get a draft document that does encompass the views of all.
Without that, they run the very serious risk, Wolf, of this draft constitution being rejected. If that happens, that is a worst-case scenario of its own. It throws into somewhat political chaos this process. Again, they have to vote on a new National Assembly. They have to vote, and again this process would start anew. But the deadline met today with the caveat that they can amend it and vote three days from now, resolving those outstanding issues, Wolf.
BLITZER: Let me just be clear on one point, Aneesh, before I let you go. You say that there is a possibility this draft constitution could be rejected. I thought the Kurds and the Shiites were all on board? They certainly have the majority. What you're referring to would be the election in October to ratify the draft constitution and there, what you are suggesting, if the Sunnis aren't on board, the Sunnis could in effect, veto? They would have the power to derail this constitution? Is that what you are saying?
RAMAN: Exactly, Wolf. To vote this constitution down in the referendum, you need a two-thirds majority in three provinces. The Sunnis have those numbers in three provinces, and so do the Kurds, so do the Shia. But the Sunnis do have within their grasp the ability to reject this document.
Even if the Sunnis don't get all three provinces to vote against this document, there are some Shia against federalism. Muqtada al- Sadr, the cleric, has come out with his followers, the Shia cleric, vocally opposing federalism. He has enough votes in one province that if you had two Sunni provinces with his, that would be enough. So, a very real concern, Wolf.
BLITZER: Breaking news. We're watching it here on CNN. Last- minute decisions being made in Baghdad. Aneesh, thank you very much.
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