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The Situation Room

Could 2006 Mid-Term Elections Be Nightmare for Republicans? Interview with Louis Farrakhan

Aired October 13, 2005 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN ANCHOR: New pictures and information from all around the world are arriving all the time, happening right now.
The Bush White House, U.S. forces, and Iraq's future all on the line. The president gives troops a pep talk before a crucial vote in Iraq, even as new poll numbers show the dire straits he faces right here at home.

Also this hour, a capital clash in 2006. The way things are going, will the midterm election be a nightmare for Republicans or are Democrats just dreaming? We're going to find out about that in a little bit.

And ten years after the first Million Man March, I'll talk to Minister Louis Farrakhan about his efforts to broaden the movement and put past controversies behind him. Is he stirring up new flaps in this process? I'm Tom Foreman, and you are in "The Situation Room."

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. Wolf does have the afternoon off. There is a late breaking development in the Tom DeLay story, big interest here in Washington about all of this, and Ed Henry is on top of it.

Ed, what's happening?

ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon, Tom. That's right, in fact, CNN has confirmed that the Texas prosecutor Ronnie Earle, who has already indicted Tom DeLay twice, has now issued a subpoena for the home records, incoming and outgoing calls, to the home of the former Majority Leader Tom DeLay.

Remember, this is coming just a couple of days after Tom DeLay's camp was basically subpoenaing Ronnie Earle himself, trying to haul him and his deputies before the judge and find out exactly about the conduct of the prosecutor in this case, a little bit of Texas tit for tat.

Basically, DeLay's camp has been making the charge that, in fact, the prosecutor overstepped his bounds, that both of these indictments were ridiculous, that they should be tossed out. They're waiting for a judge to decide on whether or not they will be tossed out.

Now, today, the prosecutor responding in kind, issuing a new subpoena, trying to get the phone records of Tom DeLay. You can bet, this is not the last we've heard of this battle -- Tom? FOREMAN: Ed, is this just a back and forth that's going on politically on this thing, or is there a sense that there is a preponderance of weight piling up against Mr. Delay?

HENRY: A lot of the latest volleying we've seen, I think you've put your finger on it, is really just politics back and forth. Both sides trying to make their case, Ronnie Earle trying to pile on against Tom DeLay here, just as the DeLay camp is trying to pile on evidence that they believe that, in fact, there's been misconduct.

But basically, neither side has moved the ball forward in any legal sense since those two indictments were handed up over the last week or two. And most of the damage has not been legal so far, it's been political, Tom Delay having to step down from his post as majority leader. That's why this case mostly is about politics, if you listen to the DeLay camp in particular.

But we have to wait and see where this all goes because there could be march legal ramifications. Obviously, that second indictment on charges of money laundering that came down, that could result, ultimately, in a long prison sentence if it were ever -- if Tom DeLay were ever convicted.

We're far, far from that. The DeLay camp still confident all of this is going to be tossed out. I don't want to minimize the legal part of it, but clearly most of this is political.

FOREMAN: Ed Henry, thank you very much. We're going to stay on top of the story and keep you updated.

A lot of political tension here in Washington and bloodshed over in Iraq. Two important issues at this point. A U.S. soldier was killed today in the latest roadside bombing outside Baghdad despite stepped up security before Saturday's vote on a proposed constitution there.

President Bush set the stage for that vote today in a highly choreographed video hookup with U.S. forces in Iraq. Our White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux has more on that event and these very big stakes for Mr. Bush -- Suzanne?

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Tom, of course, there's a lot of discussion over the videoconference that took place because of a rehearsal that took place before that. For many of us who cover these White House events, that is nothing new. These are hand-picked audiences when he goes before to speak to people, the format is highly rehearsed, they're not spontaneous events.

But Tom, what makes today's so unusual is that you, me, and many of our viewers get a chance to see a rehearsal actually taking place. You're looking at a satellite feed. And it really pulls back the curtain, if you will. You see U.S. troops actually being fielded questions that are expected by the president, practicing the responses.

There are ten American soldiers as well, an Iraqi official in Tikrit that are running through this kind of dress rehearsal of the video conference, if you will. And what you're hearing is a senior Pentagon official, Allison Barber, who is prompting their responses. Let's take a quick listen.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (@0:04:48.0 ): The president will open up with some remarks. He's going to kind of shape this discussion today by highlighting the importance of what you're doing, by letting you know how much the American people appreciate your hard work, and how important this vote on Saturday is to the process in Iraq. And so you'll hear him shape those comments today.

MALVEAUX: So Tom, not surprisingly, what we heard in the conference following that shortly after, the president asking the questions that were very much anticipated. How are things going in Iraq? How are you working with the Iraqi people when it comes to trying to vote on that constitution in the days ahead?

Now, the White House initially said that this was an unscripted event, that it was a chance for the president to ask kind of Q and A, back and forth, with the troops, and they seemed generally caught off- guard when they got a lot of questions in the briefing early today, as well as some criticism over this event. But the White House was unapologetic.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCOTT MCCLELLAN, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: This is an event where there's coordination that goes on, and we work closely with the Department of Defense. They work to pull together some troops for the president to visit with and highlight important topics that are going on right now on the ground in Iraq.

The president's going to continue speaking out what we're working to achieve in Iraq, and he's going to continue talking about the vital mission that we're working to achieve there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: So Tom, a little bit of a stir as we pulled back the curtain and people get a chance to see how things actually operate here at the White House, as well as the Pentagon.

The White House initially saying that this was for technical reasons because of satellite, time delays, things like that, things we are used to dealing with that they need to rehearse with these soldiers. Since then, some of the soldiers have come forward for interviews, saying that they were not prompted, that these were genuine responses -- Tom?

FOREMAN: Suzanne, it's going to be interesting to hear more about that. It sounds like a mistake. But I guess we'll find out as it goes on.

MALVEAUX: It depends on your perspective, here. This is a White House that, as you know, really is able to fashion things, control things, rather well when it comes to public relations and the press office and so forth. They like to have things just so. So the fact that this satellite feed is getting so much attention, of course, is bothersome.

FOREMAN: Unbelievable. Well, thank you, Suzanne Malveaux.

Iraq is just one of several problem areas weighing on the president and pulling down his poll numbers, way down. New figures out today drive home Mr. Bush's dicey political situation these days. Here's our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider. Bill's coming in to talk to us about this.

Bill, tell us about these latest numbers, because they must be troubling at the White House.

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: They certainly are. Tom, the two polls just came out showing Bush's approval rating dipping below 40 percent. That's a sign of serious trouble. Here's today's Pew Research Center Poll, which shows the president's rating at 38 with 56 percent disapproving.

Yesterday, "The Wall Street Journal" NBC News Poll came out showing the president at 39. Among Democrats, Bush is down to 9 percent. Now, the Harriet Miers nomination, very controversial with conservatives, is it hurting Bush with his base? Not according to the Pew Poll. Among conservative Republicans, the president's support stood at 88 percent last month, 87 percent now. So I'd say the president is holding his base. But that's about all he's got.

FOREMAN: Bill, a lot of this could be looked at as sort of political questions here in Washington. What about the people in the country? Are they satisfied generally?

SCHNEIDER: No, the public is very dissatisfied with the status quo, 65 percent, that is nearly two-thirds, say they're dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. A lot of that is gas prices, the economy, the deficit.

But both polls show that people are increasingly dismayed over the situation and the war in Iraq. When voters are dissatisfied with the status quo, they usually take it out on incumbents, which makes Republicans very nervous because most incumbents in Congress today are Republicans.

FOREMAN: I guess that's a big question, Bill. It's a long ways off. There's a spillover effect. What does this tell us about the congressional races coming up? Anything?

SCHNEIDER: Well, the Pew Poll did ask people whether they'd rather see the Democrats or the Republicans in control of Congress. And the answer is, the Democrats are ahead by 9 percent. That is not a prediction of the election outcome. The election is a year away, and only a small number of district and Senate races are likely to be competitive next year.

But it does suggest that the mood of the country is becoming less friendly to Republicans. Watch the president's job rating, that's the key number. When a president's job rating is below 40 percent, when he's in the 30s as Bush is right now, his party is almost certainly going to be in trouble.

FOREMAN: Very interesting day in the White House and in Congress itself. Thank you, Bill Schneider, we appreciate that.

President Bush faces more pressure today on yet another front, his nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court. That new "Wall Street Journal" poll shows Americans are divided over whether Miers is qualified for the job with most, 47 percent, unsure one way or the other.

More than half of those polled said Mr. Bush emphasizes personal friendships and loyalty when making appointments. Just 27 said that he emphasizes competence and qualifications.

Amid the growing controversy over Miers, the first major newspaper has called on Mr. Bush to withdraw her nomination. "The Pittsburgh Post Gazette" says on its editorial page the president should "spare the country more embarrassments." That's a quote, and that he should go back to the drawing board on this. The White House said today Miers won't ask the president to take her name out of running, at least not at this point.

Well, the suspense is building about the outcome of the CIA leak investigation. That's also coming up in a little bit, on the eve of Karl Rove's fourth grand jury appearance. We'll have to see what happens with that.

We're going to go on in a moment with some more news. In a minute, the suspense continues to build about what's coming up next, and we'll talk about what's happening with Karl Rove as we turn to Bob Franken and see what the latest is on that -- Bob?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOREMAN: Now we're going to turn to the flooding in the northeastern United States. A lot going on up there. The rains keep coming, the waters keep rising, and new dangers seem to be just around every soaked corner up there. Our Mary Snow is on flood watch in Pompton Lakes, New Jersey.

Mary, what's the situation?

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Tom, it certainly is soaked. We are in northern New Jersey, and just to give you a sense how much water there is here, this is Pompton Lakes. And as you can see, the water is just about touching where door stops are.

There was a flood here last Saturday, the water keeps come. More rain is expected. We're right near the Ramapo River. And officials came by last night, they say to tell residents be prepared to evacuate. They did not, but some are leaving on their own.

Just a little while ago, we've been seeing families coming in throughout the day to check on their homes, even a family coming by in a little bit of a boat here to go into their homes and collect their belongings. Now, one resident we're meeting this afternoon, Carmelo Demaro.

Carmelo, you have taken your family and moved out of here to a hotel, right?

CARMELO DINARO, HOMEOWNER: Yes. Well, now we're at my brother- in-law's on the other side of town.

SNOW: But you've been here since 1998. In terms of flooding, you said it's flooded before.

DINARO: Oh, yes.

SNOW: But in the past couple of months, there's been a number of floods, right?

DINARO: A number of floods. They keep saying they're fixing the dam. Something's holding back the project from the dam, money I guess. I don't know. It seems like it's always money that's the problem.

SNOW: There is a dam nearby, and officials say that has been contributing to flooding in some areas. But you told me you are ready to move, right?

DINARO: Yes, definitely. If they don't fix the problem, we have to move. We can't go through this all the time. It's just, you know, moving my family, I have two kids. I mean, you can't go through this. I feel bad for everybody around here.

SNOW: You're going to stay out until the rain stops?

DINARO: Definitely.

SNOW: And it's supposed to rain till Saturday.

DINARO: Yes.

SNOW: All right, Carmelo, thank you very much.

And, Tom, the state of New Jersey did activate its Emergency Management throughout the state because of this rain -- Tom?

FOREMAN: Mary, we sure appreciate it. Good luck up there with all of that. Fredricka Whitfield joins us now from the CNN center in Atlanta with a closer look at all the other stories that are making news. Hi Fredricka.

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hello to you, Tom. Stormy weather is complicating relief efforts in quake-stricken South Asia. An aftershock jolted parts of Pakistan today, panicking survivors. And snow is falling on parts of hard-hit Kashmir.

It's estimated there are 20 to 50 helicopters ferrying food and supplies to earthquake victims, but U.N. aid officials say they need at least three times that number.

The group Al Qaeda in Iraq apparently denies that Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant wrote a letter to an Iraqi insurgent leader suggesting he appeal to the Iraqi people for support. U.S. officials had said they intercepted a letter written by Ayman al-Zawahri in July. But on several Islamist web sites, Al Qaeda in Iraq reportedly calls the letter a fabrication. U.S. officials say they think the letter is authentic.

Clashes broke out between Chechen rebels and Russian police in southern Russia today. Government Officials say there were heavy casualties in the town of Nalchik. They say 44 people were killed, including 12 civilians. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops to surround the town to prevent militants from escaping.

And it's a big day for former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. She's celebrating her 80th birthday today. Britain's Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Phillip were among the guests at a lavish birthday party. Thatcher, known as the Iron Lady, was Britain's first woman prime minister from 1979 to 1990. She got a congratulatory birthday call today as well from President Bush -- Tom?

FOREMAN: Thanks, Fredricka. We appreciate it.

Now, as we started to talk about a moment ago, the suspense is building here about the outcome of the CIA leak investigation on the eve of Karl Rove's fourth grand jury appearance. The big question, will the deputy White House chief of staff or other administration officials be indicted as a result of all this? Our national correspondent Bob Franken is following that case closely.

Bob, what exactly is the significance of Karl Rove going back for a fourth time?

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's significant because his lawyer says he's going back with an assertion that there is no guarantee he will not be indicted. Four times before a grand jury, many lawyers believe that this is an ominous sign for Karl Rove who, of course, has spent many years as the chief political advisor to President Bush.

FOREMAN: And here's the vice president Cheney's chief of staff, Libby "Scooter" Lewis. Now, what's going on with that part in this? Is that still going?

FRANKEN: Well, Scooter Libby, who's the vice president's chief of staff, has been identified as the other major name who has been a source in this investigation into the possibility that undercover CIA agent Valerie Plame was identified in public. That's what this investigation is about.

Scooter Libby, the vice president's chief of staff, he is named by, among others, Judith Miller, who is the "New York Times" reporter who spent 85 days in jail before she was willing to testify.

FOREMAN: What about special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald? We're going through a lot of people here, but what about him?

FRANKEN: Patrick Fitzgerald, the special prosecutor, has spent almost two years on this investigation. His grand jury is about to run out. There is a feeling that he's soon going to have to make decisions. Was the law against identifying CIA or espionage agents? Was that violated? Has there been some sort of cover-up that will result in prosecutions, false statements, that type of thing? Will there be a conspiracy, or none of the above, no indictments?

FOREMAN: Bob Franken, it's like the phone book. A cast of millions right now. Thanks for your time.

Well, still ahead, it's been ten years since they gathered here in Washington. What were the accomplishments of the Million Man March? I'll talk to the man who organized that event, civil rights leader Louis Farrakhan.

And later, he's down in the polls now, does Arnold Schwarzenegger have another thorn in his side? That story in today's political radar. Stick with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOREMAN: It was a radical idea that first played out here in Washington ten years ago. African American men gathered on the National Mall for what was known as the Million Man March, an efforts to showcase a positive image of black menace as responsible and contributing members to the community.

Now, a decade later, Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan wants to broaden that movement, and he's renamed the march the Millions More Movement. Minister Louis Farrakhan joins us now in "The Situation Room."

Thanks for coming here.

LOUIS FARRAKHAN, NATION OF ISLAM: Thank you for having me.

FOREMAN: Why revive this, why push this forward now?

FARRAKHAN: Well, certainly, we can never repeat the Million Man March. But those who were responsible for producing the Million Man March, the Million Woman March, the Million Youth March, the Million Family March, and the Million Worker March, all of us have come together along with civil rights, nationalists, pan-Africanists, young people, to look at the condition of our people.

And we realize that no one leader, no one organization, can solve the many problems of our people. But we, as a unified group, believe that we have the will, the skill, and the finance to be able to help our people out of the condition that we find ourselves in.

FOREMAN: Certainly, a lot of people throughout the American community paid attention when the Million Man March happened, but I want to quote something. Reverend Jeremiah Wright from the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago said, "The Million Man March was a wonderful moment spiritually, but I feel like, what did we do with it? And what are we going to do that's different this time around?" In a practical sense, you've worried about these problems forever. Did anything get any better after the first march?

FARRAKHAN: Well, we can say that 25,000 orphans found a home, 1.7 million black men voted in the next election. The crime rate, the murder rate went down in the inner cities at that time. But what has happened to America in the last ten years is greatly reflected in the poor of this country.

FOREMAN: Has that been good or bad?

FARRAKHAN: It's not good because when you cede manufacturing to overseas cheap labor markets, when factories close in the inner cities, this leaves the black, the brown, the poor white in the lurch. When we don't have a lot of choices, if we join the armed forces, maybe there's a chance there.

If we become entrepreneurs, there's a chance there. But it seems like young black and brown men are being herded into criminal behavior, drugs and guns and gangs, and the killing goes on and we're filling the jails of America.

FOREMAN: You had to be very disturbed by what you saw out of New Orleans, as a great many Americans were disturbed by what they saw out of New Orleans. When you watched what happened there, the flooding, which happened largely in very poor neighborhoods, substantial numbers of people there who are black people, what did you think?

FARRAKHAN: Well, first, many of us saw race raise its ugly face again. The ugly specter of poverty and want in the midst of plenty was shown, not only to the American people, but to America's hurt. In foreign capitals, the news was negative against America.

FOREMAN: I want to interrupt you on this question of negative news here, because there has been the suggestion out there, people have written about this notion, that they say that you said at some point, you believe the levees were bombed or purposely breached to flood black neighborhoods. Is that true?

FARRAKHAN: Well, yes, I did say that, but I didn't say it in a vacuum.

FOREMAN: What do you mean? Explain it.

FARRAKHAN: I spoke along with members of the executive committee of the Millions More Movement to Mayor Nagin after he told us many things that he felt we could do to help. He did mention that there was a 25-foot crater under the levee.

Then we heard from the Hal Turner Show that someone under the rubric of anonymity said to Mr. Turner that he was a member of the Army Corps of Engineers, went down in his diving suit, and he saw burn marks on the concrete, and he spirited some of it away and sent it to his friend in the Army forensic laboratory. And they sent back to him saying that there were two types of explosives that they named, I can't recall, but let me just say this. Whether it is a rumor or truth, whenever there's a rumor that is believed by many, it becomes the duty and the obligation to take that rumor to those who have the knowledge to search the truth of it out.

FOREMAN: Do you believe this rumor? Do you believe the levees were bombed down there, or do you not believe that?

FARRAKHAN: I would like to know the truth of it. In John Barry's book "The Rising Tide," he said that in 1927, whites in New Orleans purposely bombed that levee. If it happened once, could it happen again? You know, we need to know the truth. The American people need to note truth.

And there are those who can search out the truth of this to either dispel it as nothing more than a rumor, or show that it is the truth, if it is, and then let's find the persons who are guilty, not only of destroying billions of dollars of property, but the mass murder of thousands of American citizens.

FOREMAN: If I'm not mistaken, this is 50 years since you joined the Nation of Islam. Is that correct, this year?

FARRAKHAN: That is correct.

FOREMAN: You were a very young man at that time.

FARRAKHAN: Yes, sir.

FOREMAN: You spent a lot of years working on this. How do you -- you mentioned earlier the opportunities for young black people in this country, many of whom find it in the military. How do you square in your head, now, your experience with the Nation of Islam, young black Americans, fighting in the military service for opportunity, being attacked by Islamic radicals? How do you square this away?

FARRAKHAN: Well, what we're looking at, sir, is an effect. What you don't see, and what America does not wish to deal with, is the cause. Now, what is the cause of Islamic radicalism? Why is there anger in the Islamic world against the United States of America? What has happened to the courts of redress of grievance that people are almost so almost imbalanced to the point where they would kill themselves and kill innocent people for political purposes?

FOREMAN: But do you feel any need to speak out more strongly and either condemn the Islamic radical for doing this and saying this is not Islam, or to say to the young black Americans, "You shouldn't be going there." How do you come out of this thing?

FARRAKHAN: Well, we, as followers of the Honorable Elijah Mohammed, have in our general orders, you know, these words: We allow no one to make a nuisance on or near our post.

We believe that our post is 3,000 by 2,000 miles called the United States of America. And none of us would allow anybody to plant a bomb or do something to harm innocent people for some political purpose. We would fight that. We would oppose that.

FOREMAN: So you're squarely against the Islamic radicals doing this in the name of Islam?

FARRAKHAN: I am squarely against anyone taking the lives of innocent people for political purposes. But I would hope that, when we see this happening all over the world that we would realize that we're looking at an effect and we would come back and re-examine our policies toward that part of the world.

And if we can make a correction, then America can regain the respect, admiration and friendship of the Arab and Muslim world.

FOREMAN: Minister Farrakhan, thanks for coming by.

You had some of that fire of all those many years you've spent on this for a moment.

I appreciate it very much.

FARRAKHAN: I'm honored, sir. Thank you.

FOREMAN: Up next, will John Kerry make another run for the White House?

No decision on that yet, but if he does decide to run, he already has a key supporter. That story on our political radar. Plus, an election a key supporter. That story on our political radar.

Plus, an election a little closer to home. Do the Democrats have a chance to win back Congress next year? We'll break down the numbers. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOREMAN: Here's a look at some of the hot shots coming in from the Associated Press, pictures you're likely to see in your newspaper tomorrow.

In Baghdad, first votes: a woman casts an early ballot in Iraq's referendum on the new constitution -- everyone watching that. Hospitals and prisons organized voting two days ahead of the official date.

In Belgrade, a swan swims free. Today, Serbia issued a ban on hunting them to prevent the outbreak of bird flu there.

In Mexico, fugitive busted. Accused rapist, kidnapper and child molester Gary Lasher was caught in Cancun. He was on the FBI's ten most wanted list.

And in India, children pray for earthquake victims during a special ceremony.

And that's a look at today's hot shots, pictures all worth 1,000 words and great work done all over the world by photo journalists. A face-off between Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger and John Kerry on our "Political Radar" today.

Senator Kerry is in California to announce his opposition to a state ballot measure that would limit the use of employee union dues for political activity. It's a show of unity with firefighters, teachers, nurses and other groups Kerry will need them if he decides to run for president in 2008.

It's also a slap at Governor Schwarzenegger, who supports this ballot measure. Schwarzenegger's camp is firing back by issuing an invitation that Kerry seems likely to refuse, to appear at an event endorsing one of the governor's top goals in the November special election, ending teacher tenure. And that is a firecracker to hold on to out there.

Kerry can count on at least one supporter if he takes another shot at winning the White House. Fellow senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts tell the Associated Press he'd back Kerry again if he runs in 2008.

And that could put Kennedy at odds with one of the Democratic party's other top presidential prospects, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. But Kennedy says he'd stand behind Kerry anyway.

A new headache for a possible presidential contender. Sources close to the investigation confirm that Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has been subpoenaed to turn over his personal records about stock sales.

The Security and Exchange Commission is looking into Frist's recent sale of shares of the hospital operator HCA which was founded by his father and brother. The sale took place just days before HCA's stock price fell.

Frist denies he acted on any kind of inside information on that deal and he says he's cooperating fully with authorities at this point.

Of course, Frist isn't the only Republican with problems these days. And many wonder how this might affect congressional elections next year. So, let's bring in our national correspondent, Bruce Morton. Bruce?

BRUCE MORTON, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Tom, are congressional Republicans in trouble? Sure. Just look around.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MORTON (voice over): Polls say events are against them. Voters are unhappy with the drawn-out war in Iraq, unhappy with the administration's response to Katrina. They disapprove of the president's Social Security plan.

And Republicans seem ethically challenged. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay indicted, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission and so on.

You can see the Republicans' troubles in the effort to recruit Senate candidates. They wanted Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito to challenge Robert Byrd in West Virginia, but she's keeping her House seat.

They didn't want Katherine Harris to be their candidate in Florida, but she's running. Others chose not to run.

Nebraska Governor Mike Johans would have been the best Senate candidate in Nebraska, but the president named him Secretary of Agriculture.

They have some bright spots: Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele may run for retiring Democrat Paul Sarbanes's Senate seat in Maryland, but ...

AMY WALTER, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Democrats couldn't ask for a better political environment to recruit in right now. And Republicans couldn't be looking at a worse political environment to do the same.

MORTON: But the election is a year away. Things could happen. The president's numbers may go up.

And other thing: when the Republicans took control in 1994, they ran on the Contract with America, things they said they'd do.

Some promises look funny now: a balanced budget, term limits for Congressmen. But it was a platform.

Do the Democrats have one now?

WALTER: What voters are saying is: we don't really like what we see from Republicans in Congress, but we're not all that crazy about Democrats, either.

For Democrats to be effective, they have to be able not only to argue for a change in the status quo, but to give voters something else.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MORTON: That's the problem. The Democrats look at Mr. Bush and say: whatever he's for, we're against. So, polls say, are most voters. But they may want the opposition to also say, hey, here's how we'd do it better -- Tom.

FOREMAN: A fine assessment, Bruce.

The president and the polls. You know, it's just not a pretty picture. But can the Democrats take advantage of this golden opportunity?

Plus, the supreme battle over Harriet Miers. Religion appeared to be off limits when it came to John Roberts, but is Miers' faith fair game? We'll get expert opinions on both of those topics. That's coming up in today's "Strategy Session." Stay put.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOREMAN: A new low in the polls for President Bush and the growing controversy over his Supreme Court pick, Harriet Miers. Joining us for today's "Strategy Session," CNN political analyst and Democratic strategist Paul Begala and Ramesh Ponnuru, senior editor of The National Review.

Talk about these numbers first -- in particular, the right track, wrong track thing which you just love. The numbers are saying wrong track -- 59 percent saying the administration is on the wrong track. Right track, only 28 percent.

What does that mean.

BEGALA: Well it means, if you're briefing the president on this poll this afternoon, you say, "Mr. President, the bad news is your job approval is 39. The worse news is it could get worse" -- because it means his job is 11 points higher than people think the direction of the country.

Generally, the president's job approval tracks pretty closely. So -- and I'm not just making this up; not just wishful thinking as a Democrat -- he has more room to fall, unfortunately. He's going to have to do something more than cosmetic photo ops like he did today to try to give people a sense that the country is going in the right direction.

FOREMAN: What do you think? Cosmetic photo op today? Or what do you think?

PONNURU: I think the president does need to make a course correction. The president's in a rough patch. Presidents have these patches. He's got a 39 percent approval rating. Pretty much every modern president has hit that at some point in their tenure, but every modern president has not rebounded from it.

The question is: Does he take those steps?

FOREMAN: Do you think that -- you say a rough patch. I think an awful lot of casual political observers out there would say, "This doesn't look like a rough patch for the Republicans overall right now." They've got a lot of things going.

PONNURU: Well sure. Absolutely. But let's cast our minds backward. July of 2004, a lot of Republicans were despondent, thought Bush was going to lose. There were Democrats talking about winning the Congress back in August.

2002, when you had the Worldcom and Enron scandals -- a lot of Republicans were panicking at that point.

That was a lot closer to those elections than we are to the election of 2006. There is time to rebound. FOREMAN: Now, what's going on with the Democrats on this? Did you ever see a boxing match where a guy is about to fall over and the other guy keeps dancing around like he's afraid to hit him? I mean everybody keeps saying with the Democrats, they keep saying, "No, no, no, this is bad, look at the mistakes of the Republicans" -- what the heck are they offering?

BEGALA: That's going to be the question. And Christopher Marlow, the great poet, wrote that poem: If we had world enough and time.

Democrats have world enough and time.

FOREMAN: Is this driving you crazy? Are you watching it saying, "Speak up, say something"?

BEGALA: You know, I go down there, I talk to those folks. And it drives them crazy. What they say is they blame us. They say, "Well, the media doesn't cover it." In fact, I went and saw the Senate Democratic leader, Harry Reid.

FOREMAN: One of the three things that...

BEGALA: He's got an energy plan this thick. And he says, "You guys never talk about it." Seriously, he slammed it on my lap. I think it's a very good energy plan because it moves us away from dependence on Middle East oil.

They're developing a political reform plan. My friend Rahm Emanuel is the congressman from Chicago. He's got a good reform plan on lobbyists. But Democrats have got to put that out there. They've got to say, "We can do better."

And I think you'll hear that slogan from them more and more. "We can do better." And that's not just "they stink."

FOREMAN: I've got a feeling...

BEGALA: They've got to say "we can do better"...

FOREMAN: I have a feeling, the way things are in this country, people are going to have to hear more than just "we can just do better."

BEGALA: They needs those specifics on energy, on the environment, on jobs, on health care and, most especially, on Iraq.

FOREMAN: Let's talk about a specific here. Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court -- people saying, 24 percent saying, she's not qualified; 29 percent saying she is qualified -- kind of a tie there, a little bit more on the qualified side; and 47 percent saying they don't know.

How are you feeling about this thing right now? Good, bad?

PONNURU: I think that these numbers are a lot weaker than the numbers for John Roberts when he was announced. And I think the president and the White House have to be worried because they thought -- they certainly acted as though they thought the conservative criticisms of Miers were going to subside after the first couple of days.

That hasn't happened. He does not have his troops solidly behind him the way he expected to. They've got a poor product and they're marketing it poorly.

FOREMAN: What about this whole question of the religion issue? Here are the quotes from Senator Dick Durbin: "The White House is basically saying that, because of Miers's religious beliefs, you can trust her" -- this thing about her being an evangelical Christian. "That to me is a complete reversal not only of the history of choosing Supreme Court nominees, but where the White House was two weeks ago with the nomination of John Roberts when they were saying, 'Let's not talk about that'."

What do you think about this?

BEGALA: Senator Durbin is a Catholic. Chief Justice Roberts is a Catholic. And they engaged, I thought, respectfully about how their faith informs their views.

But Durbin was attacked by conservatives for raising that issue. And it is hypocritical now for the White House to say, "Well, just trust her -- she's a born-again Christian."

One friend of mine who's a conservative evangelical said, "Oh my goodness, Jimmy Carter was a born-again Christian, too." It doesn't necessarily mean you are a conservative.

She ought to have a proven record on the Constitution. The Constitution itself says you can't have a religious test for office. And maybe President Bush would have done well to have read that before he announced Mrs. Miers.

FOREMAN: Don't get ahead of yourself there. You gave her the office.

(LAUGHTER)

PONNURU: It's not just the religion, it's also the question of their views on abortion.

With John Roberts, his personal views on abortion were off limits. All of a sudden with Harriet Miers, the fact that she's personally opposed to abortion is a selling point.

And this is creating a problem because, in trying to sell her to the right, I think they're running the risk of really alienating liberals and Democrats and creating a real whip-saw problem in their hearings.

FOREMAN: OK, you on the right over here, tell me how the Democrats ought to kill off this nomination if they want to. PONNURU: Well, I think what they ought to do is hold their fire. There is absolutely no reason for them to criticize Harriet Miers when conservatives like some of my colleagues are doing that for them.

I think the time to pounce is at the hearings. And I also think that you want to drag this out if you're a Democrat. No reason to get the fight over expeditiously. Let the conservative base engage in some more bloodletting.

FOREMAN: Well, if there's anything Paul knows, it's how to drag things out.

(LAUGHTER)

Thank for being here today.

Up next: It started in Asia and now it's spreading to Europe. We will have the latest developments on the lethal bird flu. You want to hear this.

And, at the top of the hour, a region under deluge. We'll head back live to the Northeast where the rains just keep coming and coming, and the floodwaters keep rising.

Stay with us right here in "The Situation Room."

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOREMAN: We just cannot get away from this bird flu story. Fredricka Whitfield joins us from the CNN Center in Atlanta with a closer look at the other stories making the news. Hi, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: Hello, to you, again, Tom. Alarming news today about bird flu. The European Commission said a lethal strain of the virus has been found in poultry in the country of Turkey. And it says the same strain is probably in Romania. If so, that would be the first known time the deadly strain has reached Europe. Bird flu has killed some 60 people in Asia.

Music legend Fats Domino is getting a firsthand look at the damage Hurricane Katrina did to his house. The singer of "Ain't That a Shame" and "Blueberry Hill" returned to New Orleans today. He was rescued from the flooded city last month after Hurricane Katrina struck.

His house is in New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward, which was one of the areas hardest hit by floodwaters. We'll have much more on his story in our next hour.

The star of the TV show "Lost," Josh Holloway and his wife got a scare. The couple was robbed at gunpoint in their Honolulu home early yesterday. The robber reportedly got away with money, credit cards and Holloway's Mercedes. The car was later found abandoned. Police are now looking for the thief. Holloway plays Sawyer on the ABC hit series "Lost." It's now in its second season. And in Arkansas, a family just got a little bit bigger. Michelle Dugger gave birth to her -- get this -- 16th child on Tuesday. Johannah weighed in at just over seven pounds. Mother and daughter are doing well. Each of the family's 16 children, by the way, have names beginning with the letter J. The oldest is 17. The Duggers are building a new 7,000 square foot house with nine bathrooms. You cannot have enough bathrooms with that many kids, Tom.

FOREMAN: I don't think you can have enough acreage with that many kids. Can you imagine that?

WHITFIELD: No, I cannot. That's a crazy number.

FOREMAN: Oh my gosh. The shoe buying trips must be just a nightmare. Thank you, Fredricka.

Still to come, the White House digs in its heels over Harriet Miers' Supreme Court nomination. It says she stays. And, of course, the folks in blogland are talking about it.

And later, Pakistan in relief. Aid begins to flow more freely to the shaken country at last. We'll have an update. You are in THE SITUATION ROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOREMAN: The White House says it will not cave to criticism from its angry allies and withdraw Harriet Miers as a Supreme Court nominee. It's big buzz for bloggers. And our Internet reporters, Jacki Schechner and Abbi Tatton, are here to take us inside the magical world of blogland.

JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: I love it, Tom. That's my favorite when you call it blogland. I also know you're not going to be very surprised. We are talking about the Miers nomination once again, but we have to. That is what they are talking about, especially on the conservative blogs.

And as Joe Gandelman at The Moderate Voice points out, "it doesn't seem to be dying down anytime soon." To sum it up pretty well, the "GOP conservatives are outraged," they are really unhappy with President Bush and the White House.

I like this from the "National Review's" Corner. This is the blog at the "National Review" online saying this is the way that the grassroots support of President Bush feels about him right now. "I hope the nomination is withdrawn and soon" is the kind of e-mails that she's getting.

And this is what she's saying, is they "don't want to be fighting him" and they "don't have the drive to fight for Miers." There's the controversy, so they say if President Bush gave them something to work with, they'd be really, really happy.

ABBI TATTON, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Now, the Republican National Committee is trying to give conservative bloggers something to work with. We reported yesterday on a conference call that took place between Chairman Ken Mehlman, also e-campaign director Patrick Ruffini and a group of conservative bloggers who were invited to participate on the topic of Harriet Miers.

We got some early reports yesterday. Now we're getting a lot more in-depth reports about what happened on that conference call. First of all, the positive reaction. Ed Morrissey at captainsquartersblog.com writes that everyone seemed to be happy to be asked to be on this conference call, "appreciated the effort that Patrick Ruffini and Ken Mehlman put into reaching out." He even suggested that these two be put in charge of public relations.

Another one, Mark Coffey at Decision '08 -- this is someone who supports the nomination -- said that Ken Mehlman was such a great salesman on this that he even supported the nomination even more at the end of it. However, amongst those conservative bloggers that really do not support this nomination, have been vocal in their opposition, a sense of disappointment.

Professor Stephen Bainbridge is a UCLA professor who has written extensively about this. He live-blogged the conference call yesterday. He asked a question about whether Harriet Miers would be like Sandra Day O'Connor. And he summed up, the whole thing this. The call ends, my mind is unchanged. "It was a lot of assurances but not a lot of facts."

Also, from Glenn Reynolds who rounds up all the reaction today, it "doesn't seem to have been enough to win people over"

SCHECHNER: Now, again, this is dominating on the conservative blogs. The liberals and Democrats seem to be talking more about Karl Rove and Plamegate, and that's not lost on Anna Aldhouse (ph) law blogger -- conservative law blogger. It says "quite fun spectating for liberals and Democrats, isn't it?"

Well, they're not only spectating, their also parodying, if that's a word. I wanted to show you this. This is cronyjobs.com. This is from the people at Chickenhead. They do parody Web sites. They thought this was pretty funny. It's supposed to look like Hot Jobs and it essentially has a list of people that have worked for the Bush administration that they think don't deserve their jobs.

They have things like this. Check your interests, freedom, invasions, flag pins and obedience. Again, this is a parody site but pretty funny at cronyjobs.com. And now we are going to send it back to Kyra Phillips.

PHILLIPS: Thanks, Jacki. It's 5:00 p.m. in Washington. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM where news and information from around the world arrive at one place simultaneously.

Happening right now, it's 5:00 p.m. in the Northeastern U.S., where flood warnings are up, roads are washed out, and

Check your interest, freedom, invasions, flag pins.

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