Return to Transcripts main page

The Situation Room

Crooked Congressman Awaits Sentencing in San Diego; President Bush In Pakistan, Preparing To Speak With Pervez Musharraf; In India, President Bush Rejects Protectionism; Second Review Of Port Takeover To Begin Soon; Six Months After Hurricane Katrina, Members Of Congress Survey Damage; Will India Nuclear Deal Fly In U.S.?

Aired March 03, 2006 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: To our viewers, you are now in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information from around the world are arriving all the time. Happening now, punishment in an unparalleled political bribery case. It's 1:00 p.m. in San Diego where former Congressman Randy Duke Cunningham is being sentenced right now. Will the war hero-turned convict get the maximum? Or will he get off easy?
Also this hour. President Bush in Osama bin Laden's backyard, literally. It's 2:00 a.m. Saturday in Pakistan where Mr. Bush is rewarding an ally in the war on terror and he's facing anti-American protests.

Plus, challenging Hillary Clinton. It's 4:00 p.m. in New York where Republicans may finally have found a new U.S. Senate candidate. What does their choice tell us about the state of the GOP and about Senator Clinton's political power? I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.

Right now in a San Diego courtroom, a former lawmaker is being sentenced for breaking the law. It's a staggering case of corruption. The former congressman Randy Duke Cunningham admits accepting $2.4 million in bribes. But now as CNN's Jen Rogers reports, the California Republican is pleading for leniency.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEN ROGERS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Randall Duke Cunningham would have been serving out his eighth term in Congress this year. Instead, the San Diego Republican will likely start serving a prison term.

REP. RANDY "DUKE" CUNNINGHAM (R) CALIFORNIA: The truth is, I broke the law, concealed my conduct and disgraced my office.

ROGERS: Cunningham, who resigned from office last fall, has plead guilty to taking $2.4 million in bribes and evading $1 million in taxes. The bribes from defense contractors enabled Cunningham to buy a multi-million dollar mansion in southern California, a Virginia condominium and even a Rolls Royce.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The idea of a congressman taking money is outrageous. And Congressman Cunningham is going to realize that he has broken the law and is going to pay a serious price, which he should.

ROGERS: Cunningham's plea agreement with the government allows prosecutors to seek a maximum 10-year sentence. Cunningham's lawyers have asked for leniency in light of the former congressman's record as a decorated fighter pilot during the Vietnam War, his age and his declining health. But prosecutors are unmoved by his request and continue to recommend Cunningham be sentenced to the full 10 years. Jen Rogers, CNN, Los Angeles.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: And at this moment, Jen is inside the courtroom covering Cunningham's sentencing in San Diego. The instant she learns the outcome, she is going to come outside and bring us a live report. We're standing by for that. In the meantime let's go to Capitol Hill to see how Randy Duke Cunningham's case and broader ethics questions are playing out up there. Our congressional correspondent Ed Henry is standing by. Ed, first of all, what are they saying on the Hill? I'm sure a lot of members are really watching this case so closely.

ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know there are so many members who are friends of Randy Duke Cunningham. What they are telling us is basically they feel sorry for him in a way because they thought he was a hero. Obviously his service in Vietnam as Jen pointed out. But they really feel like he obviously broke the law, took bribes, even had a bribe menu, prosecutors have shown where he laid out for lobbyists in grand detail exactly how much cash, gifts, Rolls Royce, boats, et cetera, et cetera that they had to give him in order for him to then do their bidding here on Capitol Hill.

So while they feel sorry, they also feel a lot of shame for what he did. And politically how it's playing out is Republicans are really running scared up here a bit, that when you put Cunningham together with Jack Abramoff that the party in power really could pay a price at the polls in November for all of these lobbying scandals amid these Democratic charges of a culture of corruption.

And the timing of this is interesting, the sentencing, because next week, in fact, we are going to see the first real action on Capitol Hill when the Senate starts debating a lobbying reform bill. Amid all this talk, they'll finally act where it will basically force lobbyists to disclose more about their activities and put it all online so the public can see it. But critics are already charging this is really a toothless piece of legislation because it's not going to include a provision for an office of public integrity here on the Hill to really crack down on wrong doing.

Also, even if the Senate passes this reform next week, the House Republican leadership is really in disarray on how they are going to move forward. So it's really not heading to the president's desk any time soon. And finally we are really going to see a show down over this office of public integrity. Senators like John McCain are saying that the Senate ethics process, the House ethics process is really broken up here. It's known as a toothless tiger. It's time to create some sort of office that really digs out and roots out corruption. We are going to see a showdown over that on the Senate floor Wolf.

BLITZER: Ed, has he really explained the blatant nature of the bribery? A Rolls Royce parked in front of his home, a yacht, $2.5 million. It almost seems like he was sort of crying out to be caught it was so flagrant. It was so obvious.

HENRY: Yeah and in fact none of his colleagues really knew about it. Very few of his staffers knew. We were told of one staffer who eventually approached him about it. And he wouldn't give in and Cunningham really wouldn't admit the wrong doing and wouldn't come to grips with it months and months ago so the staffer finally left. I think the lawmakers have not fully come to grips with it. They really did think he was a hero and he has never fully explained either to his colleagues or to the public at least, why he did it, how he turned out, while he was considered a hero, why he turned out to be so corrupt Wolf.

BLITZER: Former top gun now crashing big time. Thanks very much, Ed. We are going to get back to you, Jen Rogers as soon as this sentencing hearing wraps up. She's going to tell us how many years in prison this former congressman is going to be spending.

In the meantime, other news we are watching. President Bush spending the night in Pakistan right now. He's getting ready for talks with General Pervez Musharraf, a critical ally in the war on terror. The president has promised to press Pakistan to do more to try to hunt down al Qaeda fugitives including Osama bin Laden. Bush arrived under extraordinary security. Demonstrators, including some sympathetic to bin Laden chanted death to America and killer go back.

Mr. Bush's visit comes a day after a suicide bomb attack near the United States consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, an attack that killed an American diplomat and three other people. President Bush traveled to Pakistan from neighboring India. He spent the final day of his visit to New Delhi focusing in on jobs and trade. Mr. Bush rejected complaints about outsourcing and he vowed the United States would not give in to protectionists. CNN's Elaine Quijano filed this report from New Delhi.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): President Bush capped off a three-day visit here to India by stressing the ties between this country and the United States. Speaking in the Indian capital of New Delhi, the president talked about how both countries are democracies made up of multicultural, multi-religious, and multiethnic societies. The president also addressed an issue that's been a sensitive one in the United States, the issue of outsourcing. Mr. Bush acknowledged that Americans have paid a price for outsourcing, but he said isolationism is not the solution.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's true that some Americans have lost jobs when their companies moved operations overseas. It's also important to remember that when someone loses their job, it's an incredibly difficult period for the worker and their families. Some people believe the answer to this problem is to wall off our economy from the world through protectionist policies. I strongly disagree.

QUIJANO: The president also said the rise of India's middle class, some 300 million strong, represents an immense opportunity for American business. In his wide-ranging speech, the president also said there has been close cooperation between the U.S. and India on the war on terrorism. That is the issue that will be front and center when Mr. Bush sits down with Pakistan's leader, President Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad on Saturday. Elaine Quijano, CNN, New Delhi, India.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Elaine and our Suzanne Malveaux are both traveling with the president. Suzanne will have a live report from Pakistan. That's coming up in our 7:00 p.m. Eastern hour right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.

Back here in Washington, the clock is now ticking on the second review of the Dubai port deal. The Arab company at the center of the controversy formally has requested that a review begin. Just a short while ago, the paper work went forward. CNN's Andrea Koppel following the story here in Washington. She's got all the details. Andrea?

ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, this is not a surprise to most people who have been following the story. We heard from Dubai ports world over the weekend that they intended to make a voluntary request for what is really, highly unusual for them to have a 45-day additional review by the organization, the committee that's known as the Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States, CFIUS. It's highly unusual because the committee had already approved this deal to go forward back in January. But we all know that there is strong bi-partisan opposition to this deal. So the company is now filing that paperwork today with the Treasury Department.

And so the ball is now going to be in the Treasury Department's court in the CFIUS court to start that clock ticking, the 45 day clock that you referred to there. But the Treasury Department and CFIUS has another 30 days to decide when the 45-day review will begin. So it could begin in a few days. It could begin in a few weeks. It could be an additional 30 days. But it would be hard to imagine, Wolf that the White House is going to want to sit on this for much longer. We know that even as recently as this week since the company made the announcement that they were going to make this voluntary request, Republicans have come out strongly again, opposed to this deal going forward. Here is Senator Wayne Allard, Republican from Colorado.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. WAYNE ALLARD (R) COLORADO: Key administration officials have already made comments that could easily lead one to believe that this will be little more than a perfunctory investigation or one designed to support a pre-determined outcome. This is absolutely unacceptable. Congress and the American people expect a legitimate, objective, substantive investigation.

(END VIDEO CLIP) KOPPEL: And that substantive investigation, the additional 45- day investigation could begin at any point now, Wolf.

BLITZER: Andrea Koppel watching the story for us. Andrea, thanks very much. And remember stay tuned to CNN day and night for the most reliable news about your security. Let's go back up to New York. Jack Cafferty has the Cafferty file. Jack?

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, thank you. There's a big brouhaha in a Colorado high school. Where a teacher made some controversial comments about President Bush. One comment compared Bush to Adolph Hitler. Well, everybody immediately got hysterical. The teacher said he was trying to make the kids think. There's an idea. But some of the students and their parents were outraged. Controversy is of course a valuable tool if teachers want their students to do something besides just memorize the textbook. The problem is in picking the controversy that's acceptable. The question then is this for this hour. How much freedom should a teacher have in the classroom? E-mail your thoughts to caffertyfile@cnn.com or you can go to cnn.com/caffertyfile. And we will remind you that Brian Todd will have more on this Colorado school controversy in the next hour of THE SITUATION ROOM.

BLITZER: Always dangerous, always dangerous Jack to make any comparisons with Hitler or with Nazis. It's never necessarily a good idea.

CAFFERTY: Probably -- you're probably right there.

BLITZER: Thanks very much Jack for that.

Coming up, the war of words over Katrina. And the response, the former FEMA Director Michael Brown takes on the homeland security chief. Michael Chertoff again, here in THE SITUATION ROOM. We'll have a live interview with Michael Brown. That's coming up in our 7:00 p.m. Eastern hour.

Also ahead, can anyone beat Hillary Clinton? Republicans have been scrambling to try to find a Senate candidate in New York State. We'll meet a woman who apparently thinks she's up to the challenge.

And we're rolling out the red carpet for our politically-charged Oscar race. We are going to take a look at contenders for best picture and some of the red-hot topics they explore. Bill Schneider's in Hollywood for that. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Our Zain Verjee is off today. Fredricka Whitfield joining us from the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta with a closer look at other stories. Hi, Fred.

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello to you, Wolf. After a day of relative calm, Baghdad residents are awaiting word on whether a daytime curfew will be extended. Vehicles were banned from city streets today to prevent sectarian attacks on the weekly Muslim holy day. Iraqi authorities say a wave of violence since an attack on a Muslim shrine last week has now claimed at least 500 lives. But a top U.S. military official says Iraqi security forces are responding well and a full-scale civil war is unlikely.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. GEORGE CASEY, US ARMY: Anything can happen. But I think as long as the coalition forces are here on the ground working with the Iraqi security forces and the vast majority of the Iraqi people remain committed to forming a government of national unity, which I firmly believe that they do, I think the chances of that are not good.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WHITFIELD: And we'll go live to the Pentagon for much more on this story in the next hour.

And we're just receiving word of a tentative agreement between Northwest Airlines and its pilots on a tentative pay cut deal. Pilots were the last of the airlines' workers without a deal. This afternoon's agreement if approved, could avert a strike. Union leaders are expected to meet tonight to discuss the deal.

And more than 2,000 people are still listed as missing from the hurricane Katrina disaster. Residents of three hard-hit sections of New Orleans are anxiously awaiting the results of new sweeps for bodies in their neighborhoods. Search teams and cadaver dogs are combing through debris in the devastated ninth ward and two other areas. And city officials say Federal funding for the long delayed searches came through only recently, Wolf. We'll have a live report from New Orleans in the next hour of THE SITUATION ROOM.

BLITZER: Thanks Fred, very much.

Thirty four members of Congress are in Louisiana right now getting a firsthand look at the damage six months after hurricane Katrina. The House Speaker Dennis Hastert, the Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi. They vowed to put aside their differences to better help hurricane victims try to rebuild and recover. But two key figures in the Federal government's Katrina response have not put aside their own personal differences. The former FEMA Director Michael Brown and Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff. Brown was here in THE SITUATION ROOM last night. Listen to what Brown says should happen to Chertoff.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAEL BROWN, FORMER FEMA DIRECTOR: It appears to me that when Chertoff does things like tells me that I've got to go to Baton Rouge and plop my butt down on a seat in Baton Rouge and run a disaster from there. I think that shows naivete about how disasters are run. And so you either got to get with it or to move on.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Should he lose his job?

BROWN: Well, I think so. (END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Brown is going to return to THE SITUATION ROOM tonight live in our 7:00 p.m. Eastern hour for more on his take, what the administration did right, what it did wrong and the immediate response to hurricane Katrina. Michael Brown, live once again here with Jeanne Meserve and me and THE SITUATION ROOM coming up tonight at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Meantime, the White House continues to dispute allegations that the president ignored warnings of how bad Katrina would be.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRENT DUFFY, WHITE HOUSE DEPY PRESS SEC: The president was well aware that this was a devastating storm. And we pre-positioned more manpower and material ahead of the storm than ever before. It turned out not to be enough. Now as to FEMA going forward, we do need to strengthen their capabilities, particularly in a regional sense. One thing we learned in Katrina was that we do need to have closer relationships with state and local officials so that when crisis strikes, we're working with people that we know, that know the communities best and that know the neighborhoods the best. And that's what we are doing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Trent Duffy says state and local responders will continue to be the first line of defense in cases of natural disasters or other catastrophic events.

Up next here in THE SITUATION ROOM, President Bush calling the nuclear treaty deal he sealed in India historic. Is it also a political burden though for him here at home? We are going to take a closer look.

And the immigration wars. We'll tell you what's happening right now and how it's dividing Republicans. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: President Bush left India with a new deal to separate that country's civilian and military nuclear programs. But will the deal fly back here at home? Our political analyst Carlos Watson is joining us. Carlos, the president called this deal historic. But he's potentially going to get some trouble, not only at home but elsewhere as well.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Significant, Wolf. But here at home, his challenge will be from both Democrats and Republicans who say that it's a mistake to allow India or any other country that's not a part of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty to continue to develop nuclear weapons and it sends a bad signal, dramatically new precedent. And again he'll get pushed back in both places. One of the important things to note Wolf is that this is not a treaty. And consequently the president will have to deal not only with the Senate, but with the House which could make it much more stickier to get an agreement done over the next six to 12 months.

Externally overseas, he'll also get pushed back probably mostly from Europeans who again will say something very similar, that we are not as interested in selling nuclear fuel which obviously, India will need much of, to a country that's not part of the pack. And again there will have to be a change in one of the agreements among some of the nations that currently sell the nuclear fuel including Britain and France and others in order for this to happen. So, it's a big new agreement. But it's an agreement that won't become real until he solves both domestic and international political challenges.

BLITZER: Let's talk a little bit about immigration. It's going to be a tough issue I assume going into the midterm elections in November. Give us your thoughts. What do you see unfold on this really hot button issue?

WATSON: Well, you know Wolf, what's so interesting about this issue is that everybody is geared up for kind of a caricature of an issue, meaning that they expect the left versus the right. They expect particularly those folks in the southwest to come out strong on it. But three significant additional factors are even wild cards to watch.

Number one in contrast to previous discussions of immigration in our history over the last several hundred years including 1986's epic battle, this time around there are three Hispanic members of the Senate, two Democrats, one Republican. What Ken Salazar, what Bob Menendez, what Mel Martinez of Florida have to say will now have a significant impact. And so wait to hear what they have to say. They will be key canaries in the coal mine, if you will.

Number two, what will Arlen Specter ultimately do here? People didn't expect 18 or 24 months ago that this Pennsylvania Republican, some would say liberal Republican would be as helpful to President Bush as he has been. But in the last 18 months, whether it's been the Patriot Act, two Supreme Court nominees, medical malpractice, he's been the president's most valuable player arguably in the Senate. And so again can he help craft an agreement here?

Last but not least Wolf, on the immigration issue what will matter on this is not only what happens here in the U.S., but what happens overseas. Mexico has a big presidential election this summer. The front runner is the former mayor of Mexico City. He's a little bit of a maverick like Howard Dean and John McCain known to speak his mind. His name is Andres Louis Obrador and if he has significant comments this summer, that also could shape the debate. So in addition to the typical players, watch out for those three factors as well.

BLITZER: Carlos bringing us good insight as he always does. Thanks very much. Have a great weekend.

WATSON: Good to see you. Have a great weekend.

BLITZER: Up next. They were hoping to slow her down this year in order to trip up any White House run down the road. So what happened to the strategy against Senator Hillary Clinton?

Plus, the president's trip to Pakistan. Will it help get Osama bin Laden captured dead or alive? James Carville and Terry Jeffrey standing by for our strategy session. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back. When it comes to Senator Hillary Clinton, New York Republicans have had an unofficial motto. Stop her before she can run again for president. But the GOP has had a very tough time finding someone to try to unseat Senator Clinton this fall. Our Mary Snow has been taking a closer look at this story and there's a new development -- Mary.

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, there is a new development and her name is Kathleen Troy McFarland and she had been exploring a run for a congressional seat here in New York. Her campaign has raised about $600,000 for that effort but now comes a switch. Her campaign spokesman saying that all signs are pointing to an announcement early next week that McFarland will seek the Republican nomination to challenge Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Senate race in New York.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW (voice-over): We caught up with KT McFarland at the airport. She's wasting in time jetting off to meet with New York Republican leaders after being encouraged to run against Senator Hillary Clinton. McFarland won't say who is encouraging her but hinted the calls were coming from.

KT McFARLAND, FORMER PENTAGON SPOKESWOMAN: There are some in Washington, some in New York State, some in New York City and some nationally.

SNOW: McFarland last worked in 1985 as a Pentagon spokesman for the Reagan administration. She says she's being drafted to run as the state Republican chairman and admits quote, we really have to turn out sights onto Hillary Clinton and stop her before she can run for president. That's because of the numbers. Polls show Senator Clinton would easily beat any Republican contender in the state. And any money she raises can be rolled over to a presidential run.

STUART ROTHENBERG, ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT: The Republicans don't have anybody who can beat Senator Clinton. But they are looking desperately to find someone who is a credible name, a credible candidate and can make her spend money.

SNOW: Right now, former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer is the sole candidate seeking the GOP nomination after three others dropped out of the race. Adam Brett, Richard Nixon's son-in-law Ed Cox and most notable, Jeannine Pirro, whose campaign against Clinton seemed doomed from the day it began.

JEANNINE PIRRO, (R) NEW YORK SENATE CANDIDATE: Hillary Clinton -- I'm sorry.

SNOW: With the absence of New Yorkers challenging Senator Clinton, the bulk of criticism has been coming from Washington. Clinton is fighting back.

VOICE OF SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D) NEW YORK: Karl Rove spends a lot of time obsessing about me. He has people to the White House. He sends out e-mails. He spends more time thinking about my political future than I do.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW And as far as the political future of the New York Senate race, political strategists say KT McFarland who is seen as a more moderate Republican since she supports abortion rights, could shift some of that focus from Washington and put it back in New York. Wolf?

BLITZER: We are going to talk more about this in a moment in our strategy session. Thanks very much, Mary for that report. While KT McFarland hasn't officially announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate, it appears her committee's Web site has. Let's bring in our Internet reporter Abbi Tatton. Abbi.

ABBI TATTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes Wolf, it certainly looks that way online. This is KT McFarland for Senate, paid for interesting enough by KT McFarland for Congress committee. McFarland is a 1976 graduate of Oxford University St. Ann's College. You can read her in her own words writing in 2002 for their news letter, remembering 9/11, talking about her experiences and the nightmares she had for some time afterwards. Her husband is Alan McFarland. This Web site here shows that he is an important political donor, giving to Republicans and Democrats over the years. Here's an interesting donation to New York Senate Democrat Charles Schumer back in 1989 when he was a congressman.

Here's another site that shows just the disparity of how much amounts raised by all the candidates in New York. This is opensecrets.org. You can see here Senator Hillary Clinton and that McFarland is some way behind. Wolf.

BLITZER: Abbi, nice plug from Oxford, Abbi Tatton, originally from Oxford, England, herself.

Coming up, Senator Clinton's presidential prospects in 2008. Is she definitely playing things now in hopes of winning then? Stick around for our strategy session. James Carville, Terry Jeffrey, they are here in THE SITUATION ROOM.

And it's one of the seven wonders of the world, but maybe not in the Bush family. We'll tell you what's going on. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BLITZER: Today in our strategy session, President Bush arrives in Pakistan to discuss democratic reforms and the continuing hunt for al Qaeda leaders. Will his trip help win international support for the war on terror? Joining us now our CNN political analyst and Democratic strategist James Carville and Terry Jeffrey, the editor of "Human Events." Guys, thanks very much. Here's an excerpt of what the president said in terms of the overall need for democracy. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: In the long run, the United States and India understand that winning the war on terror requires changing the conditions that give rise to terror. History shows us the way. From the east to west we've seen that only one force is powerful enough to replace hatred with hope. And that is the force of human freedom.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: You can't really quarrel with that strategy.

JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: It's the largest democracy in the world. I got a great idea. If it's so good, why don't they send billions of dollars to Iraq and send tens of thousands of their troops there to help us? That'd be great. I mean it's one thing to give some platitude. It's another thing to get a little skin in the game. So we would be delightful to have them pick up the cost of this and pick up some troops over there.

TERRY JEFFREY, EDITOR, HUMAN EVENTS: But I think the real long- term interest we have in being friends with India not minding the fact that India has a nuclear arsenal. It borders on communist China and borders on Pakistan. Pakistan is our friend today. It may not be tomorrow, Wolf, especially it may not be tomorrow if it becomes more democratic. And obviously China could become a security problem down the road. So I think the president there is putting in place a hedge bet to what happens in Pakistan and China in the future. It's a good thing for the country.

CARVILLE: And I think it's a wonderful country and they do some things and I'm glad (INAUDIBLE) the president being there. And I think we should have good relations. But I'm saying is, if they want to help us, they can give us more than platitudes.

BLITZER: Let's talk about Iraq for a moment. In our latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, we asked the American public whether they thought a civil war in Iraq was likely or unlikely in the next year. Look at these numbers, very disturbing, 73 percent, Terry, 73 percent thought it was likely that there would be a civil war in Iraq within the next year, 20 percent said unlikely.

JEFFREY: Well I think the thing that would most likely bring about an all-out civil war in Iraq is if the United States left. So I think the question for us is how can we get to a point where we can leave and we don't leave behind a civil war. Right now they are in the midst of a political process where the key question I've said many times in this show is whether the Shias give enough to the Sunnis politically and in terms of power to come into a government and stop backing the...

BLITZER: Politically can the president double the U.S. troop presence in Iraq to try to get the job done? Assuming that might help?

JEFFREY: No, I think number one, he couldn't do it politically. Number two, it would be a mistake. I think the more troops we put over there, the more people we lose, Wolf. This isn't going to be won by our military, although a military presence is necessary. This is going to be one by us forcing the Shia to make a deal with the Sunni where both of the key parties on the ground saying we don't want a civil war. If we can't get there, then we can't pacify that country.

BLITZER: The American public sees the images of the suicide bombings, the IEDs, the death, and sectarian violence and they're very depressed at the scene they see in Iraq.

CARVILLE: What's really funny is we have 74 percent of the American public saying a civil war would be likely. We have George Will Sunday morning saying that this is what a civil war looks like. And our friends over at Fox News ran a thing and said the media's making up the fact that there's a civil war which is tragic and almost funny in one sense. But I think Terry is right. I mean it's obviously people are concerned about that. Who wouldn't be concerned at this point? And you know, one does hope that somehow we can get the Sunnis to accept some kind of role, the Shias to accept the Sunnis in some kind of role and get our people out of there. I don't think we can. I don't think we have the troops to double our troop force over there even if we wanted to. We're probably pretty thin right now. Wouldn't you say?

BLITZER: None of us are military experts, military generals. But we do like politics and you guys are experts on politics. Let's talk about Senator Clinton right now. Ed Rollins who knows a great deal about politics himself, he writes this. He says, either we bog down Hillary Clinton in 2006 in New York or do we give Hillary a free pass, let her build up chips around the country by helping other candidates and walk out of New York with a big win and become unstoppable for 2008. Ed Rollins, Republican strategist and I guess an informal, maybe an informal or formal adviser to KT McFarland.

JEFFREY: Well, I think he's wrong about one thing. I think that Hillary is going to win big in New York in November. It's really a done deal.

BLITZER: Nothing that's going to stop her.

JEFFREY: The Republicans are not going to stop her. This candidate McFarland probably has no chance of winning because she's not going to get the conservative party's support. It's already a done deal. She's going to be reelected. The question is whether Hillary Clinton can position herself to run the kind of race that James had her husband run in 1992. BLITZER: As a new Democrat.

JEFFREY: A new Democrat that's a little more moderate, particularly on cultural issues, who can have some appeal in the south and more conservative upper Midwest states like Ohio so she can get electoral college victory. She has already developed a record in the Senate, Wolf. She voted for the partial birth abortion ban, against Roberts and Alito to the Supreme Court. She voted to filibuster the marriage amendment. For Republicans in a national election can define her on the culture as too far left to Middle America.

CARVILLE: This is the ninth candidate the White House has tried to get. Mr. Rove and Mr. Mehlman I think have a kind of -- how do I say this delicately -- kind of peculiar obsession with Senator Clinton.

BLITZER: She said that this week.

CARVILLE: I agree. I agree with her probably a little bit more. Mr. Rove is supposed to be in charge of Katrina relief and all he does is spend time on Senator Clinton. I would tell Mr. Mehlman that you have enough congressional Republicans and Senate Republicans in trouble without being so obsessed with Senator Clinton. And I don't understand that it's something that these boys have. And apparently they spend all their time worrying about her. If they spent a lot more time, if they're worried about the country and worried about Randy Duke Cunningham and some of these other Republicans and ethics problems, I think.

BLITZER: I think the notion of Hillary being sworn in as president after George W. Bush and he would be on the podium during that swearing-in ceremony, the inaugural event. That image is not something the White House would necessarily like to see.

JEFFREY: It would make the American presidency seem like a semi- hereditary office. To tell you the truth it's not going to be Republicans who are going to be cutting up Hillary after the first Tuesday in November. It's going to be Democrats. There are going to be some candidates in the Democratic primary are going to try and convince Democratic voters that they have a better chance of winning in the south and in conservative Midwest states than Hillary does. Former Senator Mark Warner of Virginia is one. Senator Bayh of Indiana is another. She's going to get hit hard within her own party before she gets that nomination.

BLITZER: We got to leave it right there. But I'm sure we're going to talk about Hillary Clinton a few more times between now and November. Guys, thanks very much. Terry Jeffrey and James Carville, have a great weekend.

On our political radar this Friday, a supreme get together. The members of the new Roberts' court pose for what's known as the class photo. It's the first time we've seen all of the Supreme Court justices together since John Roberts and Samuel Alito joined the highest court. Arnold Schwarzenegger's office says he won't be attending a so- called gladiator fight in Ohio this weekend after all. The California governor reportedly had been scheduled to attend the controversial bout, also known as cage fighting. But Schwarzenegger's office denies that. We are told the governor will go to the overall fitness and body-building show but he'll be a no show at the gladiator fight which critics, including Senator John McCain, have simply called them barbaric.

And you might think the Taj Mahal would be a must-see stop during any trip to India. But president and Mrs. Bush did not, repeat, did not go there. India's prime minister pointed that out during lunch with the first couple and he told Mrs. Bush he hopes her husband will be more chivalrous during their next trip to India and take her to see the Taj Mahal. President Bush admits he is getting an earful about the missed tourism opportunity from his wife.

Up next, flood watch in Hawaii. We'll have the very latest on the rain and the risk.

And some students are supporting him. Another is challenging him. Should a teacher who compared President Bush to Hitler keep his job? Jack Cafferty will be back with your e-mail.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Let's go back to Fred at the CNN headquarters in Atlanta for a quick check of other stories making news. Fred?

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello again, Wolf. In Hawaii people in low-lying areas of Oahu are being urged to seek higher ground. On parts of the island more than a foot and a half of rain has fallen over the past 48 hours. Some residents have taken refuge in emergency shelters. A flash flood warning is in effect across the island. And similar weather is being reported on two other Hawaiian islands. One official calls it the worst flooding in a decade there.

Sectarian tensions are high in the Israeli town of Nazareth after an incident in a Christian shrine. A Jewish man said to be dressed as a Christian pilgrim set off fire crackers in the church of the Annunciation. Police used tear gas and batons to disperse an angry Christian mob that later gathered outside the church. The man and two companions were evacuated.

And strong words from Russia's top diplomat for leaders of Hamas. A Hamas delegation is in Moscow today. Russia's foreign minister told the Palestinians they must recognize Israel's right to exist or Hamas will have, and quote, will not have any serious future, that is. Hamas won Palestinian elections in January. The group is on the U.S. list of terror organizations. Wolf?

BLITZER: Thanks very much, Fred. We're going to get back to you in the next hour. Jack Cafferty is in New York once again with the Cafferty file. Hi, Jack. CAFFERTY: I have a lot of stuff. Big brouhaha in a Colorado high school where a teacher made controversial comments about President Bush. At one point he compared Bush to Adolph Hitler and everybody just went nuts. The question. how much freedom should a teacher have in a classroom?

James in Arcata, California -- education should be an open forum to discuss ideas and beliefs. In my own class, I made humorous remarks about presidents, past and present. I think the ultimate responsibility of teachers is to raise the intellectual bar. Engaging in childish (INAUDIBLE) attacks like comparing President Bush to Hitler does not raise the bar.

Tim in Pensacola -- I was an English high school teacher well- loved by my students for allowing free and open debate. I made my secret of my disdain for President Bush and upon his reelection, I even predicted that within a year, gas prices would hit $3 a gallon. Before the year was out, I'd been placed on administrative leave and was not asked back. How much freedom should a teacher have in a class room? A lot. How much does he actually have? Probably just enough to keep his job.

Jay writes -- forget what this teacher is paid by the tax payers. Forget this teacher's rights. What about the students? The students aren't there voluntarily. This is not college. These students are forced to be there by the power of law. Surely the students' rights outweigh the teacher's rights in this case. We can't imprison our children in public schools to be force fed this liberal extremism, can we?

Jared in Minneapolis, teachers should have as much freedom to teach as they choose, provided the material is related to their subject and is not promoting the teacher's personal beliefs. The comments this teacher made have been blown way out of proportion but at the same time we're not appropriate for the class room.

John in Vandalla, Illinois -- 60 years old. The best history teacher I ever encountered including college stirred up a debate regarding Vietnam and challenged us to find historic background from previous wars, et cetera, made us all think. He got in some hot water for it, but it was a tremendous learning experience.

And BJ or BG rather in Montrose, Pennsylvania -- teachers should have enough freedom to use the paddle. We want to remind you about this weekend's edition of "In the Money." We will interview a Harvard educated psychoanalyst who has written a book called "Working With You Is Killing Me." It's all about how to survive the multitude of morons we've all encountered in our places of employment. We invite you to join us for "In the Money" tomorrow at 1:00, Sunday at 3:00 Eastern. Wolf.

BLITZER: Good program. Thanks very much Jack. See you in a few more minutes.

Still to come. The Oscars online. We're going to give you a guide to the big night and the gift packages all the stars will be pocketing. But up next...

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Bill Schneider at the red carpet in Hollywood to talk about politics? Stay tuned.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: The countdown is on. The Academy awards only two days away. Who else but our own Bill Schneider is joining us now from Hollywood. Are you on the red carpet or near the red carpet Bill?

SCHNEIDER: I'm right on top of the red carpet here in Hollywood where the buzz is all about politics, specifically, political movies. Why are so many movies with political themes being honored this year, like "Crash" which deals with racism.

CHRIS "LUDACRIS" BRIDGES, ACTOR: We're the only two black faces surrounded by a sea of over caffeinated white people patrolled by the trigger-happy LAPD. So you tell me. Why aren't we scared?

SCHNEIDER: "Brokeback Mountain," prejudice.

HEATH LEDGER, ACTOR: This thing grabs hold of us in the wrong place. And we're dead.

SCHNEIDER: "Munich," anti-terrorism.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Every civilization finds it necessary to negotiate compromises with its own values.

SCHNEIDER: "Good Night and Good Luck." Civil liberties.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The line between investigating and persecuting is a very fine one.

SCHNEIDER: Is it the times? These movies have been in development for years. Like everything in Hollywood, it has a lot to do with money. People who have made money in real estate and the Internet are starting to dabble in movies.

GREGG KILDAY, HOLLYWOODREPORTER: They are being funded by financiers who aren't afraid of politically-themed movies.

SCHNEIDER: These political movies from the fringes of Hollywood met with some success at the box office.

KILDAY: Their profile has increased. And they kind of by default taken a seat at the table that might have gone to some of the bigger studio releases.

SCHNEIDER: Which were not very good in the academy's view.

KILDAY: Some of the bigger less-political movies just failed to impress them.

SCHNEIDER: And the smaller-more political movies? JON STEWART, ACADEMY AWARDS HOST: People may have the impression that a lot of them are incredibly heavy, but they are really, they are also entertaining.

SCHNEIDER: But don't expect political movies to change public opinion.

MARTY KAPLAN, DIRECTOR, NORMAN LEAR CENTER: It is only a movie. It's a little bit like a sporting event. You go to support your team. And you have some fun, and you pay some money, and you go out the same person you were when you went in.

SCHNEIDER: If you've got money and talent, you can make successful movies that promote your values, even conservative values. Mel Gibson did it. But not this year. Wolf?

BLITZER: Take us a little bit behind the scenes, Bill. Politics in Hollywood. Is it getting stronger out there because you spent a lot of time in Los Angeles. You obviously spent a lot of time here in Washington. Is the political dialogue increasing or decreasing out there?

SCHNEIDER: Well there's a lot of political fever out here because there's a lot of liberals who really dislike President Bush. But this is movie making. Movie making is about money making. So when it comes to making movies, the bottom line is what really counts.

BLITZER: Thanks very much, Bill. Enjoy the weekend out in LA, Bill Schneider, not only our senior political analyst, but our entertainment reporter as well. Abbi Tatton is standing by. She's got a complete guide to Oscar coverage online. Abbi.

TATTON: Yes Wolf. Everything you need for your Oscar viewing party online at cnn.com. That's all the information there about your favorite categories and all the nominees in each of them. If it's celebrity fashion you're look for, there's plenty of that too. Your complete guide to the red carpet can be there as well. We're going to be telling you more about celebrities and the Oscar, Oscar swag, the free stuff that celebrities get when they go along to the Oscar ceremony and where you can find it online in the next hour. Wolf.

BLITZER: Thanks very much, Abbi. We'll be watching all of this unfold this weekend.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com