Return to Transcripts main page
The Situation Room
Major Nuclear Development In Iran; Emotional Testimony at Zacarias Moussaoui Trial; Polling Raising Red Flags For Republicans In Election Year; Bush Reaches Out To Public For Medicare Support; New Rules Of Engagement For Democrats From Former Commander In Chief; Special Congressional Election To Replace Randy Cunningham
Aired April 11, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks very much, Susan. To our viewers you are now in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters from across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now -- America's worst fears about Iran's nuclear program are on the rise. It's 11:30 p.m. in Tehran, where officials are bragging about a major step in the development of nuclear technology. We'll have the Bush administration's reaction.
Also this hour, the president and new poll numbers likely to induce headaches over at the White House. Republicans in Congress are sharing the pain. It's 4:00 p.m. here in Washington. We're going to show you some of the most eye popping numbers coming out right now.
And the gospel according to Bill Clinton. The former president speaks out about values and voters. It's 4:00 p.m. in New York. Can Bill Clinton convert Democrats wary about focusing in on faith? I'm Wolf Blitzer and you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
At the White House right now new cause for alarm about Iran's nuclear threat. Iran's president announced today his nation has joined what he calls the club of countries with nuclear technology by successfully enriching uranium for the first time.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRES. MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD (through translator): The nuclear fuel cycle at the laboratory level has been completed and uranium with the desired enrichment for nuclear power plants was achieved on 20th of Anmardin (ph), 1385 Iranian calendar year.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Iranian officials say they are working to develop nuclear energy, not nuclear weapons. But the Bush administration says Tehran is moving in the wrong direction. All of this new fuel for the diplomatic confrontation underway right now between Iran and the west. Could it lead to a military confrontation as well? Let's check in with our White House correspondent Ed Henry. He's standing by with reaction from there. ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, no comment from President Bush yet, but a loud and clear message from U.S. officials. They say Iran has chosen the path of defiance instead of cooperation and they need to reconsider.
White House spokesman Scott McClellan today traveling with the president in Missouri for a Medicare event said of Iran, "This is a regime that needs to be building confidence with the international community, instead they are moving in the wrong direction. Defiant statements and actions only further isolate the regime from the rest of the world and further isolate the Iranian people."
Given the explosive allegations this week in "The New Yorker Magazine" basically alleging the Bush administration is considering nuclear strikes to deal with Iran, the obvious next question is, are we headed for war? Today Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld called that fantasyland speculation and repeated the administration line that war with Iran is the last option.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: The United States of America is on a diplomatic track. That is the president's decision. That's where our European allies are. There is obviously concern about Iran. It's a country that is supports terrorists. It's a country that has indicated an interest in having weapons of mass destruction. So obviously the president has indicated his concern about the country, but it is just simply not useful to get into fantasyland.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Now, experts point out that Iran is still far from actually obtaining nuclear weapons. They could be stopped through diplomatic means. Given the credibility question facing President Bush, mostly stemming from Iraq, but also the CIA leak case, the question obviously is whether -- how difficult it will be to pull off such a sensitive international diplomatic mission.
Presidential experts like David Gergen point out that if diplomacy fails it will be extremely difficult for the president to make the case for war in Iran.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAVID GERGEN, FMR PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER: Let's say a country like Iran needs to be addressed with military force. If that's what it comes to. You know, it's going to be harder to argue to the United States public and to the world at large that the intelligence we have on Iran makes them more threatening than Iraq, and therefore we have to do very vigorous, daring things. And quite possibly use force.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Now, another option short of war, of course, is sanctions. White House Spokesman Scott McClellan today leaving the door open to that. Saying they want to give Iran a little bit more time here. They are basically leaving the door open eventually to going to the U.N. Security Council and seeking sanctions, Wolf.
BLITZER: Ed Henry at the White House. Stick around because I'm going to be coming back to you on another story. Thanks very much.
There's a story we're following out at the courthouse in Alexandria, Virginia, right outside Washington, D.C., the trial of Zacarias Moussaoui. Kelli Arena has got some new information. She is coming outside. What is going on, Kelli?
KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, they wrapped up for today, at least. The prosecution ending with a witness from the New Jersey state police who -- can you hear me?
BLITZER: We didn't hear you at the beginning, Kelli.
ARENA: And laid out how many passengers had tried to -- OK.
Well we just got out of the courtroom. They have wrapped up.
BLITZER: Kelli, unfortunately we're having some major audio technical problems. We're going to be coming to you shortly. Kelli has some new information on recordings on Flight 93. That was the last plane that went down over Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
There are some new recordings being released in connection with the sentencing trial of Zacarias Moussaoui. I think we corrected the audio, Kelli, can you hear me OK?
ARENA: I can hear you, Wolf. Can you hear me?
BLITZER: Yes, go ahead.
ARENA: This is a good thing. The prosecution has finished up for the day. The last witness was a detective from the New Jersey state police who outlined how many calls were made from Flight 93. That's the flight that crashed in the field at Shanksville, Pennsylvania, who those calls were to, a little bit about what was in the call.
We didn't hear any tapes from the phone calls just heard a summary, including a summary of the call from Todd Beamer, explaining how a group of passengers was going to try to take back the plane and his very famous "let's roll" comment.
Before that we heard from victims and victims' family members from the Pentagon crash, some horrible testimony, Wolf, about colleagues trying to save other colleagues and grabbing for them and them slipping out of their hands this one guy said the reason he realized the reason that his colleague slipped out of his hands because the skin came off he was so badly burned.
We heard emotional testimony that the witnesses breaking down in tears on the stand describing the horror of that day and some family members explaining their loss and suffering.
Before that we heard the final witnesses from the World Trade Center, widows and daughters and there was one woman who had her children in the courtroom who were sobbing through her testimony. Very, very emotional, Wolf. The jury managed to keep it together for most of the day. It was toward tend of the day, I think, a combination of just exhaustion and emotion caught up with them. A few of them caught dabbing tears from their eyes and trying to fight back crying.
Moussaoui, of course, sat through the whole thing yawning, smiling at times and, again, every time he left the courtroom he had, you know, a comment for everyone that was left there, Wolf.
BLITZER: The recordings that they are going to be releasing from the pilot to air traffic controllers are those the recordings they are releasing from Flight 93?
ARENA: What we heard today was air traffic control which was just, you heard, mayday, mayday, get out of here. Get out of here, from one of the pilots. But the cockpit voice recorder, which is something we have never heard, is going to be released tomorrow, Wolf. And so we'll be hearing that.
As it stands now, we will hear that in the courtroom but that will not be released to the public because there have been some family members who have objected to that and said that they didn't want to hear that played over and over and over again. So for now, at least, the judge is saying that audiotape will not be released to the public. But these tapes today, which were just from air traffic control, pilot to air traffic, will be released. These are things we knew about where basically the pilot, very short, just seconds long, Wolf.
BLITZER: We'll be listening to that later. Thanks very much Kelli for coming out of the courthouse for that information. Much more coming up on the trial of Zacarias Moussaoui.
Let's get back to politics right now, specifically the Bush White House and the political danger zone. A new round of polling raising some major red flags for Republicans in this congressional election year. Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, has been crunching the numbers. He's joining us live.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Wolf, three new polls all with the same message, things are going from bad to worse for the Bush administration.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
(voice-over): How bad has it gotten for President Bush? Poll after poll shows the president's job rating at new lows. But that's not the worst of it.
Nearly half the public, 47 percent, say they strongly disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his job. Only 20 percent strongly approve. This man is not alone in his.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: In my lifetime, I have never felt more ashamed or nor more frightened by my leadership in Washington, including the presidency, by the Senate.
SCHNEIDER: Public disapproval of Bush's handling of Iraq, 62 percent. Immigration, 61 percent. Gas prices, 74 percent. The White House is trying to promote a rosy picture of the economy but the public doesn't smell any roses. Disapproval on the economy, 59 percent.
The political impact is likely to be felt at the polls this November. In the new CBS News poll, only 14 percent of registered voters say their vote for Congress this fall will be a vote for President Bush, 35 percent intend to register a vote against the president.
Is it as bad for Bush now as it was for Clinton in the is the 1994 midterm when Democrats lost control of Congress? Worse. In 1994, only 18 percent said their congressional vote was a statement against the president. Now, nearly twice as many voters feel that way.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: Any good news for the White House? Yes, in "The Washington Post"/ABC News poll, a narrow majority of Americans did not think he President Bush should be censured for authorizing wiretaps without court approval. And two thirds did not think Congress should impeach the president and remove him from office. Wolf?
BLITZER: Bottom line is, unless something dramatically changes, Bill, between now and November, the Republicans face the prospect of losing control of the House, maybe even the Senate?
SCHNEIDER: Unless something dramatically changes. But remember, seven months between now and the election. They say a week is a long time in politics. Seven months is an eternity.
BLITZER: We'll be watching with you, Bill, thank you very much.
Let's go back to the White House right now. Our correspondent Ed Henry is standing right by. What, if anything, are they saying about these horrible poll numbers for the president and the Republicans at the White House, Ed?
HENRY: Well, you know, Scott McClellan today was in fact asked about the fact that the president's poll numbers are basically in the range of Richard Nixon's at some of his low points.
McClellan's response is basically, "Look, they know the war on terror is not going to be easy to fight. It's going to be a long, ideological struggle, and you just have to slog through."
But I think actions speak louder than words. And take a look at what happened today. The president was out on the stump in Missouri pushing his Medicare prescription drug plan. It was supposed to be a boom. Instead, it's been very difficult. A lot of seniors say they can't sign up for it. So he's still out there trying to sell this program and a very revealing moment came when one gentleman, an elderly gentleman named Jerry (ph) stood up and said, "Look, this program is great. I don't believe the critics. I signed up, it was real easy."
And the president told the crowd, "If you don't believe me, believe Jerry." And I found that quite interesting because this is a president who used to be so high on trust and credibility in the poll numbers. But now not just on Iraq, but other domestic issues like Medicare, he's got to reach out to others and realizes the public may not believe him on some of these issues, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, Ed, thank you very much. How are the president's poll numbers reverberating among conservatives online? Our Internet reporter Jacki Schechner has more on that -- Jacki.
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, anytime you get a poll, you're going to get conservatives saying that that poll is heavily skewed in favor of Democrats if President Bush's numbers are low.
But he is getting support online in terms of the CIA leak investigation, and in terms of the way he's handling Iran right now. We're seeing conservatives really pulling away from President Bush and the Republican Party is in terms of immigration.
We're seeing big right-wing conservatives bloggers like PoliPundit saying they're not going to vote for conservatives anymore. Some of them being George W. Bush, on the top of that list.
We're also seeing people talk about how Bush has to change his attitude in order to bring conservatives back into the fold. We're seeing Hugh Hewitt, a big conservative blogger talk about how the Republican Party is like the Titanic, except it's aiming for the iceberg. And then there's an unscientific poll among Power Line blog readers, 13,000 of them saying border control is the number one priority, Wolf, and that's what they want to see Republicans come back around to.
BLITZER: We'll continue to watch it with you, Jacki, thank you very much. The Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld also feeling political heat over Iraq. Today he issued his strongest rebuttal yet of the recent criticism of prewar planning by several retired U.S. generals who say Rumsfeld should resign.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: Several who have opinions and there's nothing wrong with people having opinions. And I think one ought to expect that when you're involved in something that's controversial as certainly this war is, one ought to expect that. It's historic. It's always been the case and I see nothing really very new or surprising about it.
(END VIDEO CLIP) BLITZER: In response to his most recent critic, Rumsfeld says he doesn't recall retired Lieutenant General Gregory Newbold raising any objections about Iraq war planning when he worked at the Pentagon. Rumsfeld says all the criticism now doesn't affect his ability to do his job.
Jack Cafferty is doing his job in New York, as he always does. He's standing by with "The Cafferty File" -- Jack.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: And loving every moment of it, we should add.
BLITZER: And we love your work.
CAFFERTY: All right, that's enough.
Newt Gingrich says it's time for the U.S. to get out of Iraq -- Newt Gingrich. The former Republican speaker of the house says the United States should withdraw most of its troops, leave a small force behind, like in Korea and Germany.
In a speech in South Dakota Gingrich said, quote, "It was an enormous mistake for us to try to occupy that country after June of 2003. We have to pull back and we have to recognize it," unquote.
Tough stuff coming from the man who was behind the Republican revolution in Congress in 1994. Recently, Gingrich also warned his fellow Republicans that they might be swept out of power in the midterm elections. So here's the question, what does it mean when Newt Gingrich says it's time to pull out of Iraq? E-mail your thoughts to CaffertyFile@CNN.com or go to CNN.com/CaffertyFile.
BLITZER: He sounded actually a little bit like John Murtha, the Democratic Congressman from Pennsylvania. Maybe even John Kerry, in some of those comments. At least the summary that I received earlier today.
CAFFERTY: You don't suppose that old Newt is thinking about a run for the White House, do you?
BLITZER: Yes, I do. I think he is.
CAFFERTY: Me, too.
BLITZER: Yes, thanks, Jack.
Coming up, it's not over. Despite a lack of DNA evidence, prosecutors say they'll continue their case against members of the Duke University lacrosse team. That story, that's coming up.
Also much more on the president and his party. Will his low poll numbers hurt Republicans up for reelection up in November. We'll discuss that in our "Strategy Session."
And did yesterday's massive protest over immigration make any impact on members of Congress? We'll go live to Capitol Hill and find out. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: There is Betty Nguyen. She is standing by at the CNN Center. Zain Verjee has the day off. Betty's got a little closer look at some other stories making news. Hi, Betty.
BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, there, Wolf. The case is not going away. That's what Durham County's district attorney says about the investigation into allegations three Duke University lacrosse players sexual assaulted a woman. Prosecutor Michael Nifong spoke today at North Carolina Central University where the woman is a student. Yesterday, attorneys for the players said DNA samples taken from the woman did not match the team members tested. No charges have been filed.
The British man accused of killing his American wife and their baby daughter is pleading not guilty to murder and weapons charges. Neil Entwistle was arraigned in a Massachusetts courtroom today. He's being held without bail.
Now, Entwistle is charged with shooting his wife, Rachel, and the couple's 9-month-old daughter, Lillian, in January. A newly-released court document alleges he searched the Internet for ways to kill himself, and contacted escort services before the shootings.
Well, Pakistan's military is on high alert after an explosion at a religious rally that killed at least 42 people today in Karachi. Police say a suicide bomber blew himself up. Thousands of people were at the rally to mark the Prophet Mohammed's birthday. After the explosion angry protesters clashed with police -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Betty, thank you very much.
At this hour, President Bush is in the heartland trying to convince senior citizens of the benefits of the new Medicare Prescription Drug Program. In Missouri, he acknowledged glitches in the program, but he says his administration is cleaning up -- clearing up, that is, the confusion and giving older Americans the help they need.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Healthcare is a vital issue for this country. In my judgment, the best healthcare plan is one that says we'll help the poor, we'll help the elderly, and we'll make sure the doctor-patient relationship is solid for the rest of us.
We don't want the federal government -- we really don't want the federal government telling folks who -- you know, what to buy, and how to buy it and what price to pay. We want there to be a relationship between doctors and patients.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Our Congressional correspondent Dana Bash is following the politics behind the president's trip. Dana is up on Capitol Hill.
How big of a deal is this for members of Congress, Republicans specifically, what the president is doing on prescription drug benefits?
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Wolf, a very big deal. Republicans and Democrats, actually -- the leaders urged their members as they were going home for the break that they are on right now to talk up this issue big time with their constituents while they are home.
This is a CD-ROM that the Senate Republican leadership gave to their senators with talking points on it, especially for Republicans. As you alluded to, Wolf, this is very critical. You were talking earlier about the president's poll numbers being down. Well, Republican members of Congress' poll numbers are down big time, as well.
And what they are really trying to do right now is convince voters that they should keep control of Congress. And there probably isn't a more important voting bloc in any election, but even more so in a midterm election like this, than seniors.
They have been very upset about this program, and there is evidence, as the president was saying, that there is some turn around in that. The people who are actually signing up for this program are more happy with it than they thought they would be. That is a perception that is especially Republicans are trying to seize on -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Dana, Congress is in recess this week, next week, in connection with the Easter/Passover holidays. Yesterday's huge demonstrations across the country on immigration reform -- you're getting a little early indication, what if any impact they might have on these lawmakers. What are you picking up?
BASH: Wolf, it's actually a little bit unclear. As a matter of fact, some people I've talked to think that if anything, the massive rallies yesterday might further polarize the debate here in Congress.
But one thing is very clear, that the community, the Hispanic community, showed that they are a political force to be reckoned with. There was really bipartisan awe at the way they were able to energize, to mobilize, at these massive demonstrations all across the country.
And talking to some Republicans who are already very concerned that the gains that they have made because they had been courting the Hispanic community for the last several election cycles, the gain they have made may be slipping a little bit. Listen to Grover Norquist, a Republican strategist, talk about how critical this voting bloc is to Republicans.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GROVER NORQUIST, AMERICANS FOR TAX REFORM: If the Republican Party maintains its competitive position with the Hispanic vote, 40 percent and more, it will govern America for the next 50 years. If it falls to a low percentage of the Hispanic vote, then it won't.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: A pretty stark assessment there, but there's one other interesting thing about yesterday's rallies that a lot of folks here are noting, especially Democrats. A few weeks ago at the rallies in Los Angeles and elsewhere, there were a lot of Mexican flags.
Some Democrats I talked to say that they were very concerned about that happening once again because they were concerned that there could be some backlash from that, even among those who support immigrants, support immigrant rights, that it looks anti-American.
Well, yesterday it seemed as though the organizers got the message. They handed out American flags. That's mostly what you saw. So there is another kind of applause, if you will, for the community today saying if nothing else they are becoming increasingly savvy, Wolf.
BLITZER: Dana, thank you very much. Dana Bash on the Hill.
Up next, Iran's president brags about a major step in the development of nuclear technology. So how should the White House respond?
And as we just heard, Newt Gingrich speaking out against the president's program, as far as the war in Iraq is concerned. What should the administration do about that? We're going to tackle those questions and more in today's "Strategy Session." Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.
Today in our "Strategy Session," Iran announces it has joined countries with nuclear technology. How much of a threat does Iran pose? And what should the strategy be to deal with that country?
Joining us now, Democratic strategist Steve McMahon and Terry Jeffrey, the editor of "Human Events." Guys, thanks very much for joining us. Let's get to the first issue, Iran, right now. Listen to what the Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said at the Pentagon earlier today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUMSFELD: There is obviously concern about Iran. It's a country that is -- supports terrorists. It's a country that has indicated an interest in having weapons of mass destruction. So, obviously, the president has indicated his concern about the country. But it is just simply not useful to get into a fantasy land.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Fantasy land, I assume he's referring to the Sy Hersh article in "The New Yorker" among other articles, that the U.S. is considering a military strike, potentially, to wipe out Iran's nuclear capability. What kind of credibility, though, do you think Rumsfeld has right now on this issue with the American public?
STEVE MCMAHON, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I was just going to say, you know, this is a tape that we could have been listening to three or four years ago. It's exactly the same thing that they were saying about Iraq. And it's exactly the same thing that turned out to be true.
Now, obviously, Iran is a different situation because they do -- they have announced an intention to have a nuclear capability, and they are apparently pursuing it. But I don't think this administration has very much credibility, and I don't think the situation for them is getting any better.
BLITZER: It's a big problem, the credibility issue, because the intelligence on the WMD was so wrong in advance of the Iraq war. The administration does have a problem on the credibility issue, even though most experts, neutral experts, agree that Iran does represent a very significant threat to the West.
TERRY JEFFREY, EDITOR, "HUMAN EVENTS": Wolf, I honestly don't believe there's anybody in Washington who is paying attention that doesn't believe Iran, particularly under its current president, Ahmadinejad, isn't a serious threat.
This guy is a Holocaust denier. He has directly threatened the destruction of Israel. He has threatened the United States of America. He clearly is aiming at producing a nuclear weapon. They have taken a step forward, technologically, today. So, the real credibility question is, do the people in Tehran understand that the United States is a credible threat to them if they threaten us?
And I think people have to say that this particular administration obviously does pose a credible counter-threat to the people in Tehran.
BLITZER: What kind of strategy should the Democrats now take in dealing with the Iranian threat?
MCMAHON: Well, the first thing I think we all have to do is say, the nuclear threat isn't a threat at all. It has got to be off the table.
Secondly, I think this...
BLITZER: When you say the nuclear threat...
(CROSSTALK)
MCMAHON: Well, you know, there are reports that the administration is considering tactical nuclear strikes.
BLITZER: Oh, using tactical nuclear bombs.
MCMAHON: Using -- I'm sorry. BLITZER: Yes.
MCMAHON: Using tactical nuclear weapons in Iran is off the table.
Secondly, I think they have to push very hard for diplomacy. I mean, obviously, you know, if we weren't pinned down in Iraq, and if we didn't have the credibility problems, and if most of the world didn't trust us and dislike us so much, then, perhaps, we would have more options.
But, unfortunately, this administration has left this country with very few options. And I think the Democrats just have to try to encourage them to try to pursue the limited options that we have available.
BLITZER: Take a look at these numbers. And I want to put them up on the screen, in terms of "The Washington Post"/ABC poll that's just out, the Democrats' advantage over the Republicans on various issues.
They have a 32-point spread, advantage, on health care, 12 percent on immigration, six on the economy, seven as far as dealing with Iraq. And even on this issue of terrorism, where the Republicans always, national security, seem to do so much better than the Democrats, right now, in this "Washington Post"/ABC poll, the Democrats have a one-point advantage.
Those numbers, when Republicans think about the midterm elections coming up, they must be scared.
JEFFREY: Well, there's no doubt about it. I mean, the numbers look very bad for Republicans, considering, especially, that the economy is doing very well.
The one thing that's going to help the Republicans is that the congressional districts in this country have been gerrymandered in such a way that Democrats largely have safe seats and Republican largely have safe seats. There's very few seats at play. Nonetheless...
BLITZER: How many do you think are legitimately at play? The number bandied about is 40 out of...
JEFFREY: That's the upper end. I think, more realistically, between 20 and 30. The Democrats need 15 to take back the majority of the House of Representatives.
There's a chance they can take back the House. And a lot will depend on what the Republicans do legislatively in Congress between now and November. Right now, quite frankly, the president is leading them in the wrong direction.
The immigration plan that he's pushing, the one that they have been debating in the Senate, would possibly give the Democrats a majority in the Congress, in my opinion. They have got to come up with some issues, Wolf, that make the conservative base, their party, enthusiastic in November.
BLITZER: All right.
First of all, Steve, how many seats do you think are legitimately at play right now?
MCMAHON: I think Terry is right. The upper end is 40. But given the political situation that you have just outlined, these poll numbers, 40 are in play. Every single one of those 40 is going to be in play.
And if this president doesn't change his standing among the American people, he's going to lose control of Congress and maybe both houses.
BLITZER: So, the congressional matchup, which is, who do you prefer, Democrats or Republicans, right now, 55 percent in this ABC- "Washington Post" poll say Democrat. Forty percent say Republicans.
Should Democrats simply say, hey, that's great, you know, time to relax, and -- and get ready to be the majority?
MCMAHON: Well, I don't think Democrats are doing that.
I mean, Terry is also right about the gerrymandering that has occurred over the past 10 years or so. And most of these seats are pretty safe. And they're going to be pretty tough. Fifty-nine percent of the American public still has a favorable view of their own member of Congress. So, we have got a ways to go. But I think the Democrats are up to the task.
BLITZER: They may hate Congress as a whole, but they like their respective member. Is that a fair assessment?
JEFFREY: Yes. And they also realize, when the Democrats actually get out there and start saying what they stand for, in a lot of these swing districts, the swing voters do not agree with the Democrats, Wolf.
BLITZER: I will leave you with one quote, and then we will say goodbye.
Tony Fabrizio, the Republican pollster, he says: "We have lost every advantage we have ever had. The good news is, Democrats don't have much of a plan. The bad news is, they may not need one."
We will leave it on...
JEFFREY: He's right.
BLITZER: ... that note.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: Thanks very much to both Steve and Terry.
MCMAHON: Thank you.
BLITZER: Appreciate it.
Up next, a new kind of bully pulpit for Bill Clinton. Can he help his party gain ground in the culture wars? Stay with us on that.
And her husband was kidnapped in Iraq one year ago today. Now Liliana Ake is speaking out for the first time about his ordeal and hers. That's coming up right here in THE SITUATION ROOM, an interview you will see and hear only here on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: In the culture wars today, new rules of engagement for Democrats from a former commander in chief. That would be Bill Clinton.
Our senior political correspondent, Candy Crowley, is here in THE SITUATION ROOM with details -- Candy.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, if you're a Democrat and you're running for office and you're looking for a road map, who you going to call? You know exactly who you're going to call.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY (voice-over): Offering up a kind of playbook on the good book, former President Bill Clinton suggested at a party fundraiser that Democrats could not only get in the debate, but win it.
WILLIAM J. CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We don't have to be afraid of our values. And for those of us who are about to celebrate Easter, the number-one admonition in the New Testament for citizens was not to forget the poor. That's mentioned over 500 times. You can't find all that stuff they talk about mentioned over two or three times, if at all.
CROWLEY: In the past 35 years, only two Democrats, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, have won the White House. Both spoke openly about religion. It doesn't take a leap of faith to believe there's a message there.
W. CLINTON: Is that the Democrats make a terrible mistake if we act like it's illegitimate to be a values voter.
CROWLEY: It has been an axiom of recent presidential politics that the all-Republican South and the mostly Republican interior West is due in no small part to the president's ability to relate to people, not just where they live, but how they live.
Bill Clinton tells the story of a Louisiana minister, a friend who recently admitted he voted for Bush.
W. CLINTON: As a matter of fact, he said he wanted to make a confession to me. (LAUGHTER)
W. CLINTON: And I thought, that was pretty good, having a Pentecostal preacher confess to the world's most famous sinner.
(LAUGHTER)
W. CLINTON: So, I listened to what he said to say.
CROWLEY: The bottom line here from the first Democrat since FDR to be elected to a second term: Democrats need to talk more about religion, as it guides their politics, on issues like, say, immigration.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: It is certainly not in keeping with my understanding of the scriptures, because this bill would literally criminalize the good Samaritan and probably even Jesus himself.
CROWLEY: Apparently, some people have been listening.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: Still, politics and religion, even when couched in the more generic term "values," is a touchy mix. One Republican consultant publicly advised Democrats recently to back off during the primary season, suggesting, if primary voters wanted to hear about religion on the campaign trail, they would be Republicans.
BLITZER: There's no doubt, though, that, when it comes to politics on the Democratic side, when Bill Clinton speaks, the Democrats listen.
CROWLEY: Absolutely. Absolutely.
And this is something that he has been talking about all along. So -- and -- and it's a message that, as you can see, is beginning to get through. But he -- he has -- he has a template. He had the winning template. And part of it was that he was culturally very comfortable in churches and -- and talking religion. It helped him out of some tight spots, as you know.
But it was a part of his whole administration. And, so, if you're looking for what is the key to success here, that's the guy you're listening to at this point.
BLITZER: Candy, thank you very much -- Candy Crowley reporting.
Some other news from the culture wars -- a new nationwide poll shows seven out of 10 of America's college students believe that religion is somewhat or very important in their lives. But the Harvard University poll shows, college students are sharply divided along partisan lines as to how strong a roll religion should play in politics and in government. Most young Republicans surveyed say they want politicians to talk about religion. Most young Democrats don't. Republican Governor Mitt Romney today submitted a letter to state lawmakers, arguing for a constitutional amendment defining marriage as the union of a man and a woman. Massachusetts is the first state to legalize a gay marriage, a possible roadblock for Romney if and when he seeks the GOP presidential nomination.
Coming up, as California goes, so goes Capitol Hill? We are going to have a live report on a special election out there today and what it may tell us about the upcoming battle for Congress.
Also, is Arnold Schwarzenegger seeing green? We will have the latest on the California governor's rocky reelection campaign.
You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: In California right now, a special congressional election is under way to fill the seat once held by Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for accepting bribes. Some Democrats see the vote as an early test of their election prospects this fall and of their attempt to link Republicans to a so-called culture of corruption.
CNN's Chris Lawrence is joining us now from California. He's watching this vote -- Chris.
CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Wolf, today's election down in San Diego is an unusual one, where everyone is on the same ballot, Republicans, Democrats, independents. And it could give us a real preview of where each party stands come November.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
REP. RANDY CUNNINGHAM, FORMER U.S. CONGRESSMAN: The truth is, I broke the law.
LAWRENCE (voice-over): Duke Cunningham is serving time in federal prison, convicted of accepting bribes and sax evasion, as 18 candidates compete for his seat in Congress.
SCOTT ORREN (R), CALIFORNIA CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: I took an oath of honor when I joined that Navy that said I will not lie to you.
LAWRENCE: In the wake of Cunningham, Jack Abramoff and other scandals, ethics and honesty could be the buzzwords for this year's election. Candidates are also talking tough on immigration.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm the only candidate up here who has actually arrested an undocumented worker.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We have the "For Hire" sign on one side and we have the "Keep Out" sign on the other.
LAWRENCE: And they try to outdo each other when it comes to being an outsider. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I have never held elected office before.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I am not a politician. And, when elected, I will still not be a politician.
LAWRENCE: If any of the 14 Republicans win the seat from San Diego, they replace one of their own. But one of the front-runners is Democrat Francine Busby. And if she wins:
AMY WALTER, SENIOR EDITOR, "THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT": It would be the political equivalent of an earthquake.
LAWRENCE: Political analyst Amy Walters says, we could be looking at a seismic shift in Congress if a Democrat win as district where they are outnumbered by Republicans 3-2.
WALTER: It would give Democrats a very strong case for why they may be able to take the majority in November, that there this is an -- there -- this is an early sign for the kind of dramatic shift we would see in November.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE: Yes, if one candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote today, they win outright. If not, the top two finishers in each party compete in June. The winner would finish up the last months of Cunningham's term and have a real head start when they start to campaign to keep that seat in November -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Chris, thank you very much -- Chris Lawrence reporting.
On our "Political Radar" this Tuesday, another bid by the California governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, to warm up moderate California voters, as he runs for reelection. Schwarzenegger today is endorsing a far-ranging program aimed at combating global warming. The market-based plan is opposed by many corporations and many of Schwarzenegger's fellow Republicans.
Tonight, Senator Hillary Clinton launches a new series of speeches slamming the Bush administration on the economy. The prospective Democratic presidential candidate kicks things off in Chicago. The former first lady reportedly will accuse the White House of helping the rich get richer and will call for a return to what she calls fiscal responsibility.
And there were a lot of boos out there, maybe even more boos than cheers for the vice president today. Dick Cheney threw out the ceremonial first pitch at the Washington Nationals' home opener. Cheney's pitch bounced in front of home plate, before the catcher, Brian Schneider, scooped it up -- Cheney getting some boos in the District of Columbia, a heavily Democratic area, not necessarily all that surprising.
Up next, President Bush has some fond memories of his childhood home in Midland, Texas. Find out why you can now pay that home a visit as well. And how high will gas prices go this summer? We will attempt to tell you. Prepare for some possible sticker shock.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Let's check in with Betty once again at the CNN Global Headquarters for another look at some other stories making news -- Betty.
NGUYEN: Hi there, Wolf.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is rejecting Romano Prodi's claim of victory in Italy's parliamentary election. Berlusconi says the count is just too close to call, and nobody can say they have won. He is demanding a review of disputed ballots. Now, Prodi says he is not worried about the prospect of a recount and calls Berlusconi -- quote -- "out of line." We will continue to follow that.
Well, French students have gone ahead with planned protests today, even though President Jacques Chirac scrapped a controversial jobs measure. The students say they want more employment concessions. Turnout was much smaller than in previous demonstrations. France's national assembly began debate today on a replacement for the jobs bill, which would have made it easier for employers to fire young workers.
First lady Laura Bush attended the dedication of her husband's childhood home in Midland, Texas, today. Take a look. The president's parents, former President George H.W. Bush and Barbara Bush, were also there. The house, on 1412 West Ohio Avenue, has been restored to what it looked like in the 1950s, when the Bush family lived there. Not too shabby.
Well, former first lady Nancy Reagan helped the U.S. Air Force dedicate its Central Coast missile defense complex to her late husband. Ronald Reagan championed the weapons system, dubbed Star Wars, as president of the 1980s. Nancy Reagan says, he felt strongly that the security shield should be developed that destroys weapons, not people -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Betty, thank you very much.
Were sensitive technical details about Air Force One inadvertently released online?
Our Internet reporter, Abbi Tatton, is investigating.
Abbi, what are you finding?
ABBI TATTON, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, here's the document in question pertaining to Air Force One. This, until yesterday, was available to anyone who wanted to find it online. It was at the site of Robins Air Force Base. It was pulled yesterday by the Air Force, after a reporter started acting questions.
It's what called a technical order. It's for emergency personnel, emergency services, firefighters, people that might be called upon to work on the president's plane. And it was marked here approved for public release.
We spoke to representatives from the Air Force, who tell us that the information in it was outdated and it was considered non-life- threatening. They also pointed out to us that news reports saying the document discloses current anti-missile systems were not accurate. However, this has now been pulled. They say that, considering the changing times, things like this should not be available online -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Abbi, thank you very much.
And we have got a live picture of Air Force One -- check it out -- in Des Moines, Iowa, the president traveling in the Heartland today. There's Air Force One right there. We are always interested in that specific aircraft.
Still to come, the former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and his stance on the Iraq war. What is he recommending right now? Is he actually calling for a pullout? And what does it tell us about the support for the war from the president's allies?
And, later, the wife of a hostage in Iraq speaking out for the first time about her husband's capture one year ago today, and what she has been through, what her family has been through -- my interview with that woman coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Jack Cafferty is back with "The Cafferty File."
Hi, Jack.
CAFFERTY: Wolf, the former speaker of the House, old Newt Gingrich, says that it's time for the U.S. to get out of Iraq -- well, sort of.
Gingrich says the U.S. should withdraw most of its troops from Iraq and leave a small contingent behind, much as we did in Korea and Germany. Our question is, what does it mean when Newt Gingrich says it's time to pull out of Iraq?
I'm going to read the e-mails in a moment. Before I do, we got a response from an aide to Newt Gingrich. And we certainly wouldn't want to go any farther in this program without reading a response from an aide to Newt Gingrich. So, here it is, clarifying what he says.
He says, "The former House speaker is not asking for a full troop pullout from Iraq."
We didn't say he was. He says, "Gingrich is urging the U.S. to train Iraqi forces as rapidly as possible and pull back from cities and bases to airfields to serve as reinforcers, rather than occupiers." That would be like leaving a small contingent behind, which is what we said earlier.
Mary Snow is going to have a lot more on this medium-sized story later in the broadcast.
Now to the e-mails about whether Newt's call for a partial pullout from that country is a big deal.
Jack in Thibodaux, Louisiana: "It simply means that continued support of the president's policies in Iraq are a losing proposition for the Republican Party. But, if you have seen today's poll numbers, you will realize it's already too late."
Thomas in Medina, Ohio: "Let's put it this way. Until I heard Newt recommended it, I thought so, too. Now I'm not so sure. After all, he's wrong on everything else."
Donald in Davenport, Florida: "Newt's expression of surrender is very surprising. He's the first Republican to step up and say what all America is saying."
Bella in Brooklyn, New York: "During Vietnam, LBJ said, 'If we have lost Cronkite, we have lost the nation.' If the Bush administration has lost Newt Gingrich, they have lost moderate Republicans, whatever is left of them."
Allan in Burlington, Kansas: "Well, I guess, if Newt is on board, that's about everyone, isn't it?"
And Stan writes: "To hell with Newt. Did FOX get Zain?"
Where is Zain?
BLITZER: Zain is on vacation this week, next week. But she is going to be eventually moving to Washington and she's going to be joining us here in THE SITUATION ROOM. But she is entitled to take a few days off. Good for Zain.
CAFFERTY: As long as she didn't go over there to that...
(CROSSTALK)
CAFFERTY: ... network.
BLITZER: No, no, no. She is...
CAFFERTY: We don't want any of that.
BLITZER: She is here. She is here with us...
CAFFERTY: All right.
BLITZER: ... for a long -- for the long haul, Jack. CAFFERTY: All right.
BLITZER: Zain Verjee on vacation right now, coming back, not next week, the week after.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
