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The Situation Room

Duke Rape Probe; Islamic Jihad Claims Responsibility for Tel Aviv Bombing; White House Shake-Up?

Aired April 17, 2006 - 16:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And to our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time.
Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.

Happening now, we're following a developing story as a grand jury takes action in the Duke rape investigation. We're going to have details.

And it's midnight now in Tel Aviv, scene of a bloody suicide attack today, seemingly endorsed by the new Hamas-led Palestinian government. It's a developing story as Israel weighs its response to what it calls a day of terror.

And it's 5:00 p.m. in Washington, where the new White House chief of staff may be showing top White House staffers the exit. Is a major shake-up in the works?

And it's 2:00 p.m. in San Francisco, virtually destroyed by a massive earthquake 100 years ago. What would happen if a similar quake struck today? We're going to tell you about a chilling new study.

I'm Wolf Blitzer, You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.

We begin with a developing story concerning three contested questions. Was an African-American dancer recently raped in North Carolina? Were any players from Duke University's lacrosse team involved? And, if so, are any of them about to face justice? There are new developments that are coming in concerning the Duke rape investigation.

Our Alina Cho is standing by at the courthouse. She has the latest -- Alina.

ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, a source close to the case tells CNN that two sealed indictments were submitted today. That is what we know. There is still a lot that we don't know.

For instance, at this point, we do not know the nature of the charges. We do not know the identities of the suspects.

In theory, all of that information will come out once the suspects are arrested, once they make their first court appearance before a local magistrate. And that could happen as early as tomorrow morning. It could take longer. At that point, it is entirely possible that the indictment will be unsealed.

Now, defense attorneys, several of them, as late as today, spoke to the district attorney about the possibility of having their clients turn themselves in instead of being arrested in the event of an indictment. We are told the district attorney turned down that offer saying, he was "not interested."

Some other bits of information that are just coming out now.

First, attorneys say that they did talk about the possibility of having all 46 lacrosse players come to the courthouse today in a show of unity to show they had nothing to hide and show that they were fully cooperating. They were going to give themselves up for arrest. They talked about the possibility of doing that; they ultimately decided against it, citing safety concerns.

Now, a couple of questions going forward.

Why seal an indictment? There are a few possible reasons for this.

Number one, traditionally it is done when there is concern of flight risk. It is entirely possible that they sealed the indictment in this case because of the high-profile nature of the case.

And finally, Wolf, one legal expert tells me that it is possible that they seal this indictment because it would then give prosecutors a confidential edge in negotiating immunity, because at this point no one knows who was indicted and no one knows who prosecutors are talking to.

So, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered. And Wolf, certainly by this time today we should know a lot more -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Alina, thank you very much for that.

Let's get some more insight on what this might mean. Joining us, our senior legal analyst, Jeff Toobin, in New York.

It is highly unusual in this kind of case where, presumably, there isn't necessarily flight risk involving these Duke University lacrosse players for the prosecution to go forward with these two sealed indictments.

JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SR. LEGAL ANALYST: You know, Wolf, it's puzzling, because, as you say, sealing indictments is usually about or getting an arrest warrant against someone before they know to flee. Here, if it, in fact, it is an indictment of one of these 46 Duke lacrosse players, students, they all know -- everybody knows who they are, everybody knows where they live, both in Durham and in their home towns. So I just don't know.

I think it's very important to emphasize here this is an information iceberg and we have just seen the tip in terms of both the evidence in the case and in the -- the legal strategies involved. It's really going on behind closed doors now. And it's tough to speculate.

BLITZER: The district attorney, last week, when the defense attorneys were saying the DNA evidence came in and didn't link any of the Duke University lacrosse players to this incident, the district attorney at that time, the prosecutor, was saying, don't be so sure that I'm not going to go forward with the case.

TOOBIN: You know, that statement by the defense attorneys was really classic spin. It's their job, there's nothing wrong with it, but the absence of a DNA test that matches any of the suspects to the alleged victim is not necessary for a rape case.

Sure, it's something that prosecutors prefer to have. A generation of jurors raised watching "CSI" expects to have DNA evidence sometimes, but there are full -- our prisons are full of rapists who are convicted without DNA evidence.

There is eyewitness testimony, there is admissions by suspects, there are third parties who see things. Those are all the traditional ways that a rape case can be made. In the absence of a DNA test, tying a suspect to the victim does not mean the case won't go forward.

BLITZER: Very briefly, Jeff, given the racial overtones in this case, the woman who makes the allegations is African-American, the players are, I believe, largely white. Is it possible the sealed indictments were -- were sealed in order to avoid some sort of reaction in the community?

TOOBIN: You know, I suppose that's possible, Wolf, but I don't really see it, because they're going to be unsealed at some point, and the reaction will then take place then. People will either be pleased or displeased with the indictments when they come out.

I think the prosecution is proceeding slowly. It's very likely these indictments will be unsealed in a matter of days, if not hours. And at that point we'll know a lot more about what the prosecution thinks happened, and then the defense will have an opportunity to make their point.

BLITZER: Jeff Toobin, thanks. We'll watch that story unfold, together with you.

In the meantime, though, we'll turn to some other important news we're watching overseas, the death and destruction, specifically, on the streets of Israel, where a baby-faced bomber sets off his explosives to devastating effect. The suicide attacks wins the open approval of the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority government now in charge of the Palestinians, as the Israeli government considers its next move.

We're watching that very closely right now.

Let's bring in our Zain Verjee from the CNN Center. She's watching it as well -- Zain. ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, this was the first suicide bombing in Israel since January, when Hamas won the Palestinian parliamentary election. The attack happened just hours before the Israeli parliament was to meet for a new term and during the Jewish Passover holiday.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

VERJEE (voice over): It's been a target before, and today it was a deadly target again. The bomber struck at lunchtime outside a falafel stand at the Old Central Bus Station in Tel Aviv. This eyewitness says, "I saw a security guard holding a young guy, asking him to open his bag. When he opened it, I heard a boom."

The powerful blast killed nine other people and wounded more than 50. The falafel stand shattered as debris shot into the street. Sniffer dogs searched for more explosives as paramedics helped the wounded.

The Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad says it's responsible for the attack. It issued this videotape from the West Bank town of Jenin, naming the bomber as Sami Salim Mohammed Hamad (ph), seen here posing with a rifle.

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas condemned the attacks, saying it was not in the interest of Palestinians. But Hamas, which took control of the Palestinian parliament two and a half weeks ago, says the attack was justified. It says, "Palestinians have a right to defend themselves against Israeli occupation." Hamas has not carried suicide bombings for more than a year as part of an informal cease- fire with Israel, but despite strong international pressure, it refuses to recognize Israel's right to exist and won't give up its arms.

Islamic Jihad, backed by Iran and Syria, rejects the cease-fire and has claimed numerous attacks since the cease-fire began. Israel says it holds Hamas responsible for the bombing and that it will respond appropriately.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hamas needs to understand one thing, by shedding blood, they will achieve nothing.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VERJEE: And Wolf, we've got some new information. I just got off the telephone an Israeli foreign ministry spokesman, and he tells me how Israel will respond to this attack is going to be discussed at a cabinet meeting tomorrow.

We've also learned just moments ago that two Americans were injured in the blast -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Zain, thanks very much.

And that was Ehud Olmert who was speaking in your piece, not a Palestinian. Ehud Olmert speaking in Hebrew in that piece. Didn't want leave any confusion out there with our viewers.

Jack Cafferty never leaves any confusion with our viewers. He's standing by in New York -- Jack.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: You want to borrow some money or something? Why you sucking up to me?

BLITZER: Because I like you.

CAFFERTY: "Living With War," Wolf, is the name of a new album recorded by Neil Young. The British newspaper "The Independent" reports Young will release an entire album about the war in Iraq, and one of the tracks is just about political as it gets. It's called "Impeach the President," with Neil Young reportedly lashing out at President Bush and accusing him of lying.

It's ironic when you consider that, after 9/11, the Canadian-born Young wrote a song called "Let's Roll" in honor of the passengers aboard Flight 93. At that time, he also announced his support for President Bush's Patriot Act.

Young's new album comes 36 years after he became an icon for the anti-Vietnam protests with the song "Ohio," about the shooting of students at Kent State University by members of the Ohio National Guard.

So here's the question: Does it mean anything when Neil Young writes a song called "Impeach the President"?

E-mail your thoughts to the addresses on your screen -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Thanks very much, Jack, for that.

Up ahead, oil prices, they're closing in on record territory. Ali Velshi has "The Bottom Line" on why and why the worst may still be out there.

Also, are your chances of being audited greater this year? For some people, the answer may be yes. I'll speak live about taxes and your returns with the IRS commissioner, Mark Everson. He's standing by here in THE SITUATION ROOM.

And almost 100 years since the last great quake, is San Francisco ready for the next big one? We're going to take you there live.

You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: As the president plummets in the polls, even to an all- time low in one poll, the "help wanted" sign is already up at the White House, and the new White House chief of staff may pointing out the exit sign to some senior officials.

Let's go live to our White House correspondent, Suzanne Malveaux.

What's going on, Suzanne?

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, really, two and a half years is very little time for President Bush to get much done. That is what his own press secretary, Scott McClellan, conceded today. It certainly comes at a time when the White House's relations with some on the Hill, the Republican leadership, has deteriorated, as well it's a time when you take a look at the latest Gallup poll showing President Bush's job approval rating now hovering around 36 percent.

That is why today President Bush's new chief of staff, Josh Bolten, made it clear in his first behind-the-scenes, closed-door meeting with senior staff that he wanted changes made sooner, as opposed to later, when it came it putting his team in place, that he actually went forward and said, look, if you want to leave, if that is something you're considering within the next six months or so, I want to know in the next couple weeks, so he could make those changes, really giving some people a graceful exit out, if you will. Bush administration officials and some GOP strategists say that he is specifically focusing on making changes, or at least examining the White House Communications Department, as well as legislative affairs.

And Wolf, another thing that the White House does make very clear is that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is here to stay. We saw the president, of course, putting out a very clear statement on that on Friday during his Easter holiday. Also, White House aides reiterating that point again today -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Suzanne, thanks very much. A beautiful day over at the White House today. The sun shining in Washington.

Coming up, the cost of crude closing in on a record high, but that could just be the beginning. Ali Velshi standing by with "The Bottom Line," information you need to know.

Plus, millions of us facing grueling commutes each day. We're going to show you what the future may hold that could make gridlock a thing of the past. Miles O'Brien standing by with that.

Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: There's some nasty weather developing in North Carolina. Let's bring in Bonnie Schneider. She's standing by with details.

Bonnie, what's going on?

(WEATHER REPORT)

BLITZER: All right, Bonnie. We'll watch it, together with you. Thanks very much.

Let's head to New York right now. Ali Velshi is standing by with "The Bottom Line." What's going on, Ali?

ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Wolf.

Well, crude oil is now just a hair away from its record high of all time. Prices in New York were up more than $1, and it settled at its highest level in eight months. In fact, the settling number is the highest that oil has ever closed at.

This is as Iran's pursuit of its nuclear program continues to raise fears that the U.S. might take military action. Iran is the world's four biggest oil producer.

Oil at $70.45 a barrel. First time ever above $70 at the end of the day. Now, while that is 35 cents shy of the all-time high, it is significant, because $70.40 is the highest closing price we have ever seen. That's higher than the levels we saw the morning that Hurricane Katrina hit, Wolf.

Now, traders we spoke with say we ain't seen nothing yet. The money on oil hitting $75 to $80 a barrel by June is looking good.

If you're worried about that trickle down effect, you should be. Prices at the pump now $2.78 a gallon nationally for a gallon of self- serve unleaded. That's up more than 30 cents just in the last month, up about a quarter from gasoline's all-time high.

Now, from oil prices bubbling, to the housing bubble, Wolf, if you want a rosy picture of the housing market, don't ask people who build house. A new study shows that the sentiment among the nation's homebuilders fell this month to its lowest level since November of 2001. That drop was in response to rising mortgage rates, along with a decline in demand for investors and speculators.

Now, obviously, this jump in oil, Wolf, pushed the market a lot lower. Let's have a look at the closing prices there.

(STOCK MARKET REPORT)

BLITZER: Thanks very much, Ali, for that.

Ali Velshi with "The Bottom Line."

With April 15th falling on a Saturday this year, today is the deadline for most Americans to file their federal income tax returns. Here to talk about taxes with us, none other than the IRS commissioner, Mark Everson.

Mr. Commissioner, thanks very much for joining us.

MARK EVERSON, IRS COMMISSIONER: Good to see you, Wolf.

BLITZER: We meet often at this time of the year.

So many people just got finished paying their taxes, going through the process. But it's become so complicated over the years. Do you see any prospect any time soon that this is going to be less complex? You look at that code, that -- those guidelines the accountants have, it's a thick book.

EVERSON: Well, I certainly hope. Certainly, the complexity is one of the worst elements of the whole tax code.

What happens is senators and congressmen try to outdo each other to get something special for their state or for their industry. So, over time, it becomes more and more complex, ultimately people get fed up enough with the mess there is, and then there is an outcry. I think we're getting to that point.

BLITZER: I need professional help, and I know millions of other people need professional help to do their taxes. Do you? You're the commissioner.

EVERSON: Yes, I do have someone help me. I can't afford to make a mistake, Wolf. It's as simple as that. I've got to make sure absolutely certain that it's correct.

BLITZER: But your accountant, presumably, could make a mistake. That would be very embarrassing.

EVERSON: It could. And you're right, it would be.

BLITZER: But it's -- but it's complex enough, even the commissioner the IRS needs professional help.

EVERSON: Yes, I do. And right now, something like 80 percent of all Americans either use a paid preparer or use software that takes them through the routine.

BLITZER: Nina Olson of the National Taxpayers Advocate organization said this: "Our tax code has grown so complex that it creates opportunities for taxpayers to make inadvertent mistake, as well as to game the system."

It's a fair criticism.

EVERSON: I think you -- it hurts both the compliant taxpayer, because he or she has more difficulty figuring out how to claim, say, the earned income tax credit, or what education credits they qualify for, and then the person or the business that is trying to circumvent the law, they can hide behind tiered transactions, international transactions. Just a lot of complexities.

BLITZER: Could you eliminate, theoretically, a lot of the fraud if there was this national sales tax, the value-added tax? For example, what they do in Europe?

EVERSON: Well, there's -- there are problems in any system. Take the VAT. You might exempt children's clothing, as is the case. But then a small woman goes in and she's buying something in the kid's department. Is that -- is that noncompliance?

BLITZER: So that's not a perfect system either. I know you're doing your best to try to make sure the fraud is minimized. The most recent estimate we have, about $300 billion a year. I don't know if that's an up-to-date number, $300 billion a year that should be coming into the government from taxpayers and from the American public is not coming in.

If you got that $300 billion or more, it could go a long way towards balancing the budget.

EVERSON: Well, I don't think we'd get it all. If you think about what you'd have to do, it would be pretty Draconian to get each and every...

BLITZER: But is that $300 billion, is that your estimate of what -- what you should be getting, the IRS, that you're not getting?

EVERSON: That's exactly right. And it comes mostly from underreporting. And the biggest problem is in areas where we don't get reporting from third parties.

As an employee, 150 million Americans are used to reporting. They get a W2. There's a one percent noncompliance rate there. But where there is no reporting going to the IRS, as for someone who is operating their own small business, it's more like a one in two noncompliance problem.

BLITZER: I know -- I know you're trying to deal with this. You're dealing with audits of Americans earning more than $100,000 a year. In 2004, you had 166,000 audits of this category. Last year, 221,000 audits.

Is it going to continue? Are you going to continue to increase the number of audits? Because our viewers out there, they hear the word "audit," IRS, they get nervous.

EVERSON: Sure, but we're continuing to increase our efforts, particularly for high-income individuals and corporations. A sense of fairness that resonates for the system. Just because you're rich, you shouldn't get a separate deal.

BLITZER: Mark Everson's got a tough job, the IRS commissioner.

Thanks for coming in on this special day that all of us look forward to each year.

EVERSON: Thank you, Wolf.

BLITZER: Thanks very much for coming in.

And coming up, Iran says it's marching forward on its quest for nuclear technology, but how quickly? We're going to show you some revealing new photos.

And this note: coming up in our 7:00 p.m. Eastern hour, it's PR offensive against "The Da Vinci Code." Why is one so-called secretive Catholic group coming out to confront the upcoming movie head on? We'll tell you.

Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.

Iran is raising the stakes in its nuclear showdown with the West. New photos giving a glimpse of what it may be up to.

Let's bring in our national security correspondent, David Ensor.

What's going on, David?

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, as you say, more indications that Iran is advancing as quickly as it can with nuclear technology. First, claims by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Iran is presently conducting research on a more sophisticated type of centrifuge for enriching uranium.

And second, as you mentioned, satellite photos from a watchdog group showing Iran hard at work on its nuclear sites. The Institute for Science and International Security made public these new commercial satellite photos. For example, these of the nuclear facilities near Isfahan show that Iran has built another tunnel entrance, one of several leading to underground facilities there, suggesting that they are being hardened and expanded.

The ISIS has also released a series of photos from 2002 to 2006 of the facility near Natanz, and they show two massive subterranean halls being built. Here are those pictures. You can see the progression through the years. They are first dug very deep and then built and then buried with earth and concrete, multiple players. Experts believe the two halls will be filled one day with thousands of centrifuges for enriching uranium. And President Ahmadinejad, as I mentioned, has jangled nerves with his statement to students last week that his nation's researching what is called P2 technology, the P2s can enrich uranium much more quickly than the P1s and the White House spokesman said that if this is true, it would be a further violation of safeguard obligations. His words.

U.S. officials say P2 blueprints were given to Iran by the Pakistani black market ring headed by A.Q. Khan years ago. What is not clear now is how far along Iran is on this technology. Until now Iranian officials had insisted they had dropped all work on the P2 so we can expect some appointed questions from the Iranians from a senior international atomic inspectors' team that is already in Iran and preparing to go in and inspect Natanz towards the end of the week, Wolf.

BLITZER: All right, David, thank you very much for that.

So can Iran be pressured into giving up its nuclear ambitions? Also, will Donald Rumsfeld be pressured to give up his job as the secretary of defense? Joining us now as a key member of the CNN security council, our world's affair analyst, the former defense secretary, William Cohen. He is the chairman and CEO of the Cohen Group here in Washington. Get to Iran in a moment. But there has been some suggestion that it is dangerous for these retired U.S. military officers, these generals to come out and to publicly call on Rumsfeld to resign. Is that a danger?

WILLIAM COHEN, FORMER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Well, it's certainly troublesome for Secretary Rumsfeld, although I don't think he will be diverted from carrying out his responsibilities, but I always felt that the uniform personnel, while they're wearing that uniform, they should maintain silence. That's the code and that's the responsibility. Once they take that uniform off, they're, of course, free to express their views as any other citizen. So, I don't fault them for that and I think that that's part of their responsibility if they feel that way.

BLITZER: Once they're retired, it's not necessarily disloyal to the uniform to go out and get involved in politics.

COHEN: They were loyal to the uniform while they were wearing. As private citizens, they're free to express their approval or disapproval. In this particular case, President Bush is the one who has expressed his approval, however. That is key under the circumstances. He wants Secretary Rumsfeld to stay, Secretary Rumsfeld indicated he intends to stay and I think that is really going to resolve it.

BLITZER: Rumsfeld was interviewed today on Rush Limbaugh's radio show. Among other things he told Rush this. He said, "Well, you know, this, too, will pass." The calls for his resignation. "I think about it and I must say there are always two sides to these things and the sharper the criticism comes, sometimes the sharper the defense comes from people who don't agree with the critics."

You know Donald Rumsfeld, I assume, you've been around Washington a long time, so is he the kind of guy that is going to respond to this kind of criticism?

COHEN: I don't think so. It's tough enough being secretary of defense during peacetime. It's even tougher during wartime. And obviously you are always trying to balance political factors and military factors. If you get too close to the military, they will accuse you of having been co-opted by the military.

If you get too far away, then you run the risk that the military will feel they're being disregarded. So it is a very tough job under the best of circumstances, a great job to have, I might add. One that I thoroughly enjoyed and I think there is nothing quite to measure up to it.

But, nonetheless, I think that Secretary Rumsfeld has indicated he intends to stay, it will be a diversion, anyone would be diverted, at least temporarily, but I think he's going to stay and I think that the president will keep him.

BLITZER: I want to move on to Iran and the role of China in all of this as well. But while you were defense secretary do you remember occasions when retired generals criticized you?

COHEN: Not specifically. I think during the course of the Kosovo campaign there were rumblings about whether we should have had forces on the ground or not. During the course of my tenure there, I did have one senior official resign, but because he disagree would a position I had taken and he did so very quietly and consistent with, I thought, a good deal of class.

BLITZER: Was that Wesley Clark?

COHEN: It was not, it was General Fogelman (ph), and a terrific air force general.

BLITZER: Let's talk a little bit about Iran right now. There are some people, Senator Lugar yesterday, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson suggesting the U.S. should get involved in direct talks with Iran right now to try to resolve this nuclear tension. Would that be smart?

COHEN: The question is, at what level would we get involved? I think the president is going to be faced with a choice in the coming future, not too distant future and that is to decide whether or not working through perhaps other offices, we make a proposition or offer a proposition to the Iranians saying, look, if you're looking for security guarantees, if you're looking for some sort of an arrangement where you are fully integrated at the international community, we can make that happen, but on the condition that you forego any nuclear ambitions.

And I think it may take a gesture like that in order to shore up the sentiments by our European allies, they're going to be key here. Grit Britain, the French, the Germans have been solid in their support on this issue. But key will be, as I have said many times before, China.

BLITZER: The president of China ...

COHEN: Hu Jintao.

BLITZER: ... is coming here this week.

COHEN: I think that will be an issue along with energy consumption, the economy, the prices that the Chinese goods are priced at, etc. But I think key among those talks will be China's relationship with Iran and China's relationship with North Korea. Both of them continue to pose significant problems in terms of our security for the future.

BLITZER: They haven't exactly turned around North Korea. I guess a lot of people don't think China is necessarily going to succeed in turning around Iran, either.

COHEN: In the short term, they might not see it as being in their interest since they're so dependent on that flow of oil coming out of Iran. Long term, however, instability in that region could pose significant economic problems for them as well as security problem. So, it's a question whether they will take a long-term view and see that Iran getting a nuclear weapon would be very destabilizing, ultimately jeopardizing their own economy and security interests.

BLITZER: We'll have extensive coverage all this week of the President Hu's visit to Washington. Thanks very much for joining us, Mr. Secretary.

Still to come, it struck in the early hours on the morning of April 18, 1906, a devastating earthquake in San Francisco that seemed to have killed thousands. As the 100-year anniversary of that quake nears, many are wondering what would happen if a powerful tremor rocked San Francisco today.

And in our 7:00 p.m. Eastern hour, taking on the upcoming movie "The Da Vinci Code." what does one very private Catholic group want you to know before you go see this film? Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Tomorrow marks 100 years since one of the worst natural disasters in U.S. history. The 1906 earthquake and fire that nearly destroyed San Francisco. Everyone agrees it's only a matter of time before the next great quake strikes. CNN's Chris Lawrence is standing by. He is across the bay from San Francisco in Berkeley, California. What a spectacular shot you got there. Chris, talk a little bit about this 100-year anniversary.

CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, you know it's coming, you know, this is not so much a celebration because of the fact that everyone knows it's not over. You know, that the next one is coming at some point. This area is built right on top of two major faults.

That stunning view you talked about is built on top of the Hayward and San Andreas faults and the experts say some time in the next 25 years there's a 62 percent chance that another big quake will tear apart the Bay Area.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LAWRENCE (voice-over): Almost like clockwork, disaster strikes again and again. Same cities, same furious weather.

SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN, (D) CA: Can't keep putting homes in plains that you know will be inundated with water.

LAWRENCE: That's Senator Dianne Feinstein talking about rains that flooded Northern California.

LAWRENCE: Are there certain places we just shouldn't live?

SIMON WINCHESTER, AUTHOR: I'm afraid there are. And I think New Orleans is one of them. LAWRENCE: Simon Winchester says a city under sea level doesn't make sense. Same goes for a Bay Area built on fault lines. Or desert towns so dry they have to import water. He's written about the 1906 earthquake that destroyed San Francisco.

WINCHESTER: Everyone in California is in this blissful state of denial. An earthquake, well, it might happen.

LAWRENCE: Winchester says Europe is littered with the ruins of once-great cities.

WINCHESTER: I wouldn't be surprised if 100 years or 200 years' time if you looked at a map of America, you'll see the ruins of New Orleans, the ruins of Tucson, the ruins of some towns in southern Florida where we simply should not have built cities and we'll look at them as tourists and say, how crazy for people to have lived there.

LAWRENCE: Yet, millions of people keep moving to coastal communities from south Florida to San Francisco.

FRED STUDER, SAN FRANCISCAN: We built an impossible place. The bridge, the Golden Gate Bridge was built so people could go back and forth between these two impossible places. But the fact that the quality of life is just so spectacular just far outweighs the impossibility.

LAWRENCE: There are signs all over the city to remind residents what's coming, next century, next year, next week.

ANNEMARIE CONROY, DIRECTOR, EMERGENCY SERVICES: A major rupture of the Hayward fault would cause catastrophic damage throughout San Francisco and also throughout the East Bay.

LAWRENCE: Annemarie Conroy runs the Office of Emergency Services. She recently revamped its entire plan to better deal with a disaster.

CONROY: For San Francisco, it's not a question of if, it's a question of when.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LAWRENCE: That's why officials have been forcing people to ask themselves. How long could you survive, how would you survive for 72 hours? Because, basically, that's how long you're going it be on your own before help arrives. In a recent Red Cross survey found that only about six percent of residents have any kind of disaster plan. Wolf?

BLITZER: Chris Lawrence, what a report. Thanks very much. Good work.

What exactly would happen if the Bay Area were hit today with a 1906-size earthquake? Some of the answers lie online. Let's bring in our Internet reporter Abbi Tatton. Abbi?

ABBI TATTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, 3,400 deaths. That's the worse-case scenario according to researchers if a similar earthquake were to strike the San Francisco Bay Area today. What they did was use these USGS models that recreated the shaking and intensity of that earthquake 100 years ago, combining them with census data from the local area to come up with the potential damage.

What are we talking about? Up to 10,000 commercial buildings damaged, quarter of a million displaced households and 1,800 deaths, if it were to strike at night. In the daytime, that number might be almost double. That's because some of the most vulnerable buildings are the ones where people work.

This report was presented today at the 100th anniversary earthquake conference getting under way in San Francisco. Wolf?

BLITZER: Abbi, thank you very much for that. Pretty chilling numbers.

Lou Dobbs getting ready for his program. That begins right at the top of the hour. He's standing by with a preview. Hi, Lou.

LOU DOBBS, CNN HOST: Hi, there, Wolf. We have got a lot coming up at 6:00 right here on CNN Eastern Time. We'll be reporting on the promise by President Bush's new chief of staff, Josh Bolten, to reenergize the Bush White House. But can the president regain any political initiative? Three top political analysts join us. We'll also be talking with one of the most outspoken military critics of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, General John Batiste is among my guests.

And two leading U.S. senators, Senator Jon Kyl, Senator John Cornyn say protests by the illegal alien lobby will not shake their determination to secure our borders. They're our guests and we will also be reporting on calls by the organizers of the amnesty demonstrations that swept the country to have CNN fire me because I am opposed to illegal immigration and support border security first.

We'll have a special report on that and a great deal more coming up here at 6:00 Eastern. Please, join us. Back to you, Wolf.

BLITZER: All right, Lou. Thanks very much. We don't want you fired. Lou Dobbs coming up at the top of the hour.

Up ahead, Saddam Hussein back in court. With his trial now focused on his signature. We're going to show you why it's become a key issue in the case against him.

Plus, does it mean anything when Neil Young writes a song called "Impeach the President"? It's our question of the hour. Jack Cafferty has your email.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Zain is joining once again from the CNN Center in Atlanta with a closer look at other stories making news. Zain?

VERJEE: Wolf, Saddam Hussein's lawyers challenging government handwriting experts. The experts claim the former president's signature is on documents linked to a crackdown on Shias in 1982. The crackdown led to the torture and execution of 148 Iraqis, including an 11-year-old boy. The judge has adjourned court until Wednesday to give experts more time to evaluate the documents.

In Iraq, insurgents attack the governor's compound in Ramadi. One U.S. marine was hurt and an unknown number of insurgents are dead. Troops exchanged fire with insurgents after the compound came after rocket, mortar and arms fire in an attack that also included a suicide car bomb. The compound comes under attack at least four to five times a day.

And at least 57 people are dead in a bus crash in the Mexican state of Vera Cruz. The bus carrying Mexican tourists plunged off a 650 foot cliff. There are reportedly at least three survivors, including an eight-year-old girl. Rescuers are on the scene and they say that the death toll could rise as they search the wreckage.

In Europe, record water levels are causing floods and threatening cities and rural areas across Romania and Serbia. In Romania, thousands along the banks of the River Danube fled their homes after water broke through the flood defense. In Serbia, crews are on the scene bolstering embankments and sand barriers, fearing that rising water in the Danube will cause even more damage. Spring melting of snow and heavy rain over the past few weeks have caused floods across the southeastern region in Europe.

And good news, Wolf, especially for me, I'm very happy about this. Kenyans ruled the day at the Boston Marathon. Robert Cheruiyot was the champion with a record setting time of two hours, seven minutes and 14 seconds. And a Kenyan woman was the first female to cross the finish line. Rita Jeptoo had a time of two hours, 23 minutes and 38 seconds. And as we say in Swahili, Wolf, (inaudible). It's really good.

BLITZER: I say that all the time. You were born in Kenya, Zain, so I assume you must be a marathon runner yourself.

VERJEE: No, Wolf, not at all. Not at all. You're a marathon anchor, but I'm not a marathon runner.

BLITZER: Thank you, Zain.

VERJEE: With the movie release of "The Da Vinci Code" still a month away, its critics are asking the filmmakers to take steps to make it clear that the story is a work of fiction. Let's get the latest from our Internet reporter, Abbi Tatton. Abbi?

TATTON: Wolf, Opus Dei is the Catholic organization depicted in "The Da Vinci Code" as murderous and villainous. At their Web site they've long had a page devoted to "The Da Vinci Code" and now they have something else online. An open letter to Sony Pictures where they're asking for a disclaimer as a gesture of respect towards the figure of Jesus.

Opus Dei is challenging this notion that they're a secretive society. Just added to their Web site links to accounts from ordinary Americans in their words about what it's like to be a member of Opus Dei, and the positive effect on these people's lives. Sony Pictures has said today that they're not releasing any details of the upcoming movie before it's released. They also said this is a work of fiction. They pointed us to their Web site, "The Da Vinci Dialogue" where religious writers are going online to discuss some of the topics raised by the book. Wolf?

BLITZER: All right, Abbi, thanks very much.

This note to our viewers in our 7:00 p.m. Eastern hour a little bit more than an hour from now, our Brian Todd is going to have much more on the Opus Dei response to the upcoming "Da Vinci Code" film. Stay with us for that.

Let's check in now with Jack Cafferty once again for "The Cafferty File." Jack?

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Neil Young, Wolf, is going to release an entire album about the war in Iraq called "Living with War." The "Independent", British paper, reports one of the tracks on that album is called "Impeach the President." with Young reportedly lashing out at President Bush, accusing him of lying.

So, the question is, does it mean anything when Neil Young writes a song called "Impeach the President."

Bill writes from California, "The meaning of Neil Young's song is that he was able to get national TV coverage on CNN and waste the time of people like me listening to and, god help me, writing stupid letters about the sophomoric opinions of an a has-been rock star."

I like Bill's view of the world.

C.J. writes, "We should all be screaming this from the rooftops. We're at war based on constructed information drawn on admitted lies. How can anyone support a regime that uses our constitution as toilet paper? Wake up, America."

Jim writes, "Neil Young is a space cadet. If this is the only good news you liberals can find, God help us all."

Matt in Charlotte, North Carolina writes, "While I have the utmost respect for Neil as a poet and musician, I look to others for political commentary. Coincidentally the others I look to are saying the same thing, impeach Bush."

Andrew writes, "I don't think it means anything. He is obviously trying to re-create the fame he got from his Vietnam protest days. He just released a new concert movie and now this. I think it is a sad attempt at reaching a new generation of fans."

And Eric writes from Pittsburgh, "It means Neil has forgotten the four scariest words in the English language. 'Good morning, President Cheney.'"

And for those of you not able to hear us during the commercial breaks, and that's all of you, you missed Wolf Blitzer doing his rendition of an old Neil Young hit song.

BLITZER: I was singing "Heart of Gold." A great song from Neil Young. One of my all time favorites.

I'm not going to sing it here Jack, on THE SITUATION ROOM.

CAFFERTY: Let's just say it was apparent to all of us why you chose to do the news.

BLITZER: We'll talk about that later. Thanks very much.

Up next. Tired of chaotic commutes on a crowded highway? What if you had a way to get out of the gridlock by getting your vehicle off the ground? We're going to show you an amazing new form of transportation. Miles O'Brien standing by with that.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: How much time do you spend commuting every day? Will there ever be a better way in the future? CNN's Miles O'Brien finds out in today's edition of "Welcome to the Future." Miles?

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN HOST: Wolf, more than 3 million Americans commute at least 50 miles each and every day. On top of that, member many drivers spend hours stuck in bumper to bumper traffic. But what if we could simply pull a George Jetson and fly to work, breezing above the gridlock?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WOODY NORRIS, INVENTOR: One day, not too far into the future people are going to get off the ground and they're going to be able to get airborne.

O'BRIEN (voice-over): Woody Norris is a man with big ideas. The inventor's latest project, the Air Scooter. Don't let its looks fool you. This flying machine is ingenious for its simplicity. It is an odd hybrid design with blades like a helicopter, a handle bar like a motorcycle and a specially designed lightweight four-stroke engine.

NORRIS: Turn the throttle and you go out. Release the throttle and you come down.

O'BRIEN: Due to hit the market later this year with a price tag of about $50,000, Norris says the Air Scooter could make rush hours a thing of the past.

NORRIS: With the Air Scooter, it's a direct line, the way the bird flies. There's a lot more space up there than there is down here on the ground. So, we think that is going to solve the congestion problem.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

O'BRIEN: Woody Norris says eventually the Air Scooter would be a good candidate for NASA's proposed highway in the sky. A more user friendly way of mapping and navigating through the air without running into any one or anything. Wolf?

BLITZER: Miles O'Brien, thanks for that report.

Remember, we're here in THE SITUATION ROOM weekday afternoons 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. Eastern and we're back at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. That's just an hour from now. Until then, thanks very much for joining us. I'm Wolf Blitzer in THE SITUATION ROOM. LOU DOBBS TONIGHT starts right now. Lou is standing by in New York. Lou?

DOBBS: Wolf, thank you.

Tonight, President Bush's new chief of staff promising to refresh and reenergize the White House.

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