Return to Transcripts main page
The Situation Room
President Bush Back in the Border Wars; Controversial Election in California; Senators Asking Tough Questions about Haditha
Aired June 06, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: To our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now: President Bush dives back into the border wars. It's 3:00 p.m. in Laredo, Texas. That's the next stop on Mr. Bush's reform road show. Can he help break the stalemate back here in Washington? We're following the president and the election-year uproar over immigration.
Also this hour, California and the battle for Capitol Hill. It's 1:00 p.m. near San Diego on this Election Day, 6-06-06. Will the vote to replace a convicted congressman be an omen for Democrats hoping to win back the House?
It's a busy primary day across much of the United States. Who will square off with Arnold Schwarzenegger in California? Can a controversial ex-judge oust the governor of Alabama? Voters are answering those questions right now.
I'm Wolf Blitzer. And you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
President Bush is on the front lines of the immigration wars once again. He's meeting today with Border Patrol agents in New Mexico and Texas. It's a guns-and-badges photo-op, as one insider calls it, and it's designed to show he's committed to a border security crackdown at a time when Congress is deadlocked over immigration reform.
Our White House correspondent Elaine Quijano is at the president's most recent stop along the border with New Mexico in Artesia.
Elaine, what happened?
ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hello to you, Wolf.
President Bush is once again trying to nudge lawmakers closer together in coming up with a comprehensive immigration reform bill and getting that to his desk. So today, here in Artesia, New Mexico, he chose as his backdrop the only Border Patrol training academy in the U.S. He tried to send the message that he is serious about getting tough on border security.
Now, specifically he is trying to sway the skeptical House Republicans, conservatives have long called for tougher border security measures. They want that dealt with before tackling other aspects of immigration reform.
Now, over on the Senate side, the Senate bill includes a temporary guest-worker program, something that President Bush supports, but the two sides are far apart. Well, today the president suggested that all sides in this highly charged debate share some basic beliefs.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And while the differences grab the headlines, the similarities and approaches are striking. We all agree we need to control our borders. There's a common agreement that the federal government has a responsibility to control the borders.
We agree that it is unacceptable to have millions of illegal immigrants living in our country beyond the reach of law and the protection of the law, and we all agree that immigrants to America must assimilate into our society.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUIJANO: Now, also here in Artesia, President Bush watched as the new commissioner of Customs and Border Protection, Ralph Basham, was sworn in by Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff. Again, the image intended to convey the message and demonstrate his commitment to border enforcement.
Now, at this hour, the president is traveling to Laredo, Texas, to visit a Border Patrol headquarters there. And then tomorrow, immigrant assimilation will be the focus when he travels to Omaha, Nebraska. There he will visit a Catholic charity center before returning to Washington later in the day -- Wolf?
BLITZER: Elaine Quijano on the scene for us. Thank you, Elaine.
This is a busy and potentially critical day in the 2006 campaign. And immigration is a big issue in a number of races. Voters are going to the polls right now in eight states: California, New Mexico, Mississippi, Alabama, Montana, South Dakota, Iowa and New Jersey.
Only one contest in California will actually put someone in office, and it could be an early sign of how the fall battle for Congress will turn out. Voters north of San Diego are choosing a replacement for Randy "Duke" Cunningham. He's the ex-Republican congressman now doing jail time for bribery. The race pits Democrat Francine Busby against Republican Brian Bilbray.
Across California, Democratic primary voters are choosing a nominee to run against California's governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. State Treasurer Phil Angelides and State Controller Steve Westly have spent millions of dollars attacking one another in the lead-up to today's vote. Another closely watched race is in Montana where Democrats are choosing a challenger to Republican Senator Conrad Burns. He's considered one of the more vulnerable members of the Congress this fall because of his ties to the convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
And in Alabama, Republican Governor Bob Riley is facing something unusual for an incumbent: a primary challenger. The former Judge Roy Moore is known nationwide for his unsuccessful fight to put a Ten Commandments monument in a courthouse. There's also a heated Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley is watching all of this unfold together with us.
Candy, as we take a look, specifically at the action in Alabama, what are you seeing?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, you know, some races are interesting because they're close or because there's a single issue that gives it national import; other races are interesting because of who's running. The Republican primary for Alabama governor is one of those.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY (voice-over): Challenging a sitting governor in your own party is to cut against the grain, but you can work with that.
ROY MOORE (R), ALABAMA GOV. CANDIDATE: You ask the special interests and you ask the politicians in Montgomery who they want as governor, and I can tell you one they will not name. They will not name me, because I will not become part of that crowd.
CROWLEY: Roy Moore is an Alabama household name, a former state chief justice who lost his job for refusing a federal court order to remove a Ten Commandments monument Moore had installed in the courthouse building.
MOORE: It's very wrong for a public official to be excluded from his office because of his religious beliefs and the acknowledgement of God.
CROWLEY: A hero to many conservative Christians, Moore's ouster as Alabama's chief justice begat a book, and a DVD, and a gubernatorial campaign.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, MOORE CAMPAIGN AD)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And if you resign your duties as chief justice, you will continue to acknowledge God...
MOORE: Without an acknowledgement of God, I cannot do my duty. I must acknowledge God.
ANNOUNCER: It was always about the recognition of God as the sovereign source of our law, liberty and government, putting principles above politics. Judge Roy Moore, governor.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: He had a name, the potential to raise lots of out-of- state money, and an opponent, Governor Bob Riley, weakened by overwhelming opposition to a tax hike proposal. Last fall, Moore was up in one poll and then he stalled.
JENNIFER DUFFY, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: He did not run an aggressive campaign, did not raise enough money to do real television advertising, never took his platform much beyond taxes and the Ten Commandments. Roy Moore proved to be a C-grade candidate.
CROWLEY: Add to that Governor Riley seemed to recover from his disastrous 2003 tax hike idea. He is riding a budget surplus and an Alabama economy that looks pretty good. Now polls indicate Roy Moore needs a miracle to pull off a victory in Alabama, but a miracle wouldn't surprise him or those who believe in him and his signature cause.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Keep up the fight, buddy.
MOORE: Thank you.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: The truth is, Governor Riley has picked up his game so much that his seat is no longer viewed as quite the pick-up opportunity Democrats once envisioned for this fall -- Wolf?
BLITZER: So what really turned it around, because it does look like Riley has not only come back, but he seems to be ahead of Moore right now?
CROWLEY: Absolutely. And the polls show, you know, almost a 20- point gap, so it would be quite a miracle if Moore could pull this off.
Look, it was a combination of things. You did have Riley really picking up his game. I mean, he is given credit for how he responded to Katrina; he is given credit for keeping the four military installations in Alabama open when so many of them were closed by the national commission.
He totally reversed himself on that tax hike. He is now a proponent of tax cuts. He has poured money into the schools, so he has got a great record to run on.
And Moore just never really seemed to step up to the plate. Observers looking at that say, "You know, we thought he was going to get a lot of money from outside, but he didn't." And, in the end, though he talked about other things -- the tax hike among them -- he was really seen as a one-issue candidate.
And, you know, Wolf, that one-issue candidates just don't do that well when it comes to these campaigns. They look good at the beginning and then they fade.
BLITZER: Candy Crowley reporting for us. Thanks, Candy, very much.
Let's take a closer look now at that special congressional election in California and why it's looming so large right now on the national radar. Our chief national correspondent John King is joining us from Encinitas, out in California, with more.
There's a lot at stake today, John.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Quite a bit, Wolf. You might call this an early midterm election campaign laboratory.
It is literally Ground Zero, as Democrats try to campaign against Republicans, accusing them of a culture of corruption. It is also a district very close to the U.S.-Mexican border, so obviously the immigration debate plays very much into this campaign. It's also a test of whether President Bush's political slump will drag down Republicans who otherwise should win.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BRIAN BILBRAY (R), CALIFORNIA CONG. CANDIDATE: This is Congressman Brian Bilbray calling.
KING (voice-over): At campaign headquarters, Republican Brian Bilbray works the phones one last time...
BILBRAY: No, I'm not a recording, ma'am.
KING: ... hoping to solve the biggest mystery in the special election for California's 50th congressional district.
AMY WALTER, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: ... intensity question. Are Republicans truly less motivated to go to the polls than Democrats? And I think that's the lesson we'll take away from this.
KING: Francine Busby would be the Democrat who benefits and goes to Washington. This normally rock-solid Republican district sends the first big message in the 2006 battle for control of Congress.
FRANCINE BUSBY (D), CALIFORNIA CONG. CANDIDATE: I think the message will be: We are fed up and we want change. That's the message that will come out of this district if I win this race.
KING: The seat is open because a corruption conviction forced former Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham to resign, the district now a laboratory for the Democrats' culture of corruption theme, as Busby paints former congressman-turned-lobbyist Bilbray as a Cunningham clone.
BUSBY: I'm Francine Busby, and I approve this message, because if you send a lobbyist to Washington, he'll serve special interests. Send me and I'll serve you. KING: Republicans have a double-digit margin in voter registration. The national party has outspent Democrats two-to-one in hopes of preventing what would be an embarrassing loss.
The San Diego-area district is also a testing ground for competing arguments on illegal immigration, the issue on which Bilbray has sought to not only portray Busby as soft, but also to prove himself to conservatives who view him as too moderate.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, BILBRAY CAMPAIGN AD)
ANNOUNCER: Brian Bilbray opposes amnesty for illegal immigrants. Francine Busby supports amnesty. Her plan allows 11 million illegal aliens to stay here, and adds up to $30 million in 10 years.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WALTER: Even Democrats concede that this issue has cut against their candidate, and that's a much better issue right now for Brian Bilbray.
KING: Of course, one of the big questions in this campaign: How does President Bush factor in Republican districts across the country? It's been quite interesting here, Wolf. Brian Bilbray is running against the president, openly opposing his immigration plan, calling his guest-worker program amnesty and an outrage, and yet Vice President Cheney came out here to raise money, and Republican voters across this district getting automated phone calls this morning from the president, the vice president, and the first lady, urging them to get out and vote, and vote Republican -- Wolf?
BLITZER: Have there been any recent polls that actually could give us a little barometer of what might happen?
KING: Nobody trusts them because it's a special election, but there have been pollings by the campaigns that show this race essentially a dead heat, which is why it all comes down to whether Republicans turn out and vote.
Brian Bilbray supports abortion rights. He's been a supporter of gun control in the past. Those are questions as whether conservatives in this district will get out and vote today, but the late polls -- and, again, people don't trust them, because it's a special election, tends to be lower turnout -- but the polls show pretty much a dead heat, which is advantage Democrat, because Republicans should be way ahead here.
BLITZER: This is a real election, not just the primary, so a lot at stake right now for that seat. John, we'll check back with you today and tomorrow and see what happens. John King, Candy Crowley, Elaine Quijano are part of the best political team on television. CNN: America's campaign headquarters.
Jack Cafferty is part of that same excellent team. He's joining us with the "Cafferty File" -- Jack?
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: If push comes to shove with Iran, you can sleep well tonight: The Bush administration has a plan.
Iran has threatened to disrupt the world's oil supply if it's punished because of its nuclear program. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman says he doesn't think that's going to happen, but if it does Bodman says, quote, "We can handle it for a while."
How, you ask? Well, the U.S. would tap into its strategic petroleum reserve, our emergency supply, if you will. Now there's a comfort.
We've been in Iraq, what, three years now, a little more? And not only are we nowhere near a resolution to that, but the amount of oil coming out of that country doesn't compare to the amount that was flowing before the invasion.
So, presumably, in a while we could have another mess just like it in Iran, only this time we wouldn't have any emergency oil supply to fall back on here if we needed it. What a brilliant idea. You think gas prices are high now?
Here's the question: Do you think Americans would suffer if Iran cut off its oil supply? E-mail us, Caffertyfile@CNN.com, or go to CNN.com/caffertyfile -- Wolf?
BLITZER: Jack, thank you. And to our viewers, if you want a sneak preview of Jack's questions, plus an early read on the day's political news, what's ahead in THE SITUATION ROOM, sign up for our daily e-mail alert. Go to CNN.com/SituationRoom.
Coming up, massive security today in Canada, as 15 terror suspects landed in court. We've got new details on their alleged plot to storm the Canadian parliament.
Plus, a top congressional Republican tells the Pentagon to get ready for Senate hearings on alleged military atrocities in Iraq. We'll go live to Capitol Hill for the latest.
And later, President Bush heads to the border, but how damaging will the battle over immigration be for Republicans up for re-election this year? We'll have much more on this, coming up. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Zain Verjee is joining us from the CNN Global Headquarters in Atlanta with a closer look at some other important stories making news.
Hi, Zain.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, Wolf.
In Canada, the case continues against 17 Muslims arrested last week on terrorism charges. Today, a defense lawyer says government prosecutors allege that the group was planning to strike Canada's parliament, hit the Canadian Broadcast Corporation, and that one of the defendants even allegedly wanted to behead the prime minister of Canada.
The defense lawyer says that those are among the allegations given to him in a document by the prosecution. We're going to have a lot more in a live report from our Jeanne Meserve, who's in Canada. That will be in the next hour.
In Afghanistan, two U.S. soldiers are dead after a roadside bombing in Nangarhar province. That's east of Kabul. Officials say the bombing injured another American soldier and an Afghan interpreter. Officials say it happened as the soldiers conducted security operations in their military vehicle.
Meanwhile, military officers also say three American soldiers have been hurt after a suspected suicide bomber set off explosives. It happened in Khost province. That's near Afghanistan's border with Pakistan.
And in Iraq, bombings, beheadings and unidentified bodies. Two civilians are dead after two mortars hit the markets in Baghdad. An Iraqi health ministry official says nearly 1,400 Iraqi civilians died in the country last month, most of them shot execution-style. That would be the most number of civilian deaths in a single month since the war began.
Also today, police in the town of Hadid found nine heads, no bodies, just heads. Officials say the heads were wrapped in plastic bags and shoved into fruit boxes.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi prime minister is vowing to restore law and order. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki says insurgents are just trying to derail the new unity government, but he adds that they will lose. Al-Maliki says his plan to secure Baghdad has been ratified and will soon be in place.
Also today, a source tells CNN that Navy investigators have evidence that some Marines may have committed premeditated murder last April when they allegedly shot and killed an Iraqi man in Hamandiyah. The source says some of the Marines now in pre-trial confinement have admitted that the circumstances of the man's death were staged -- Wolf?
BLITZER: Thanks, Zain, for that. Zain Verjee reporting.
On Capitol Hill here in Washington, senators are back at work and asking some tough questions about an alleged massacre by U.S. Marines in Iraq. Let's go to our congressional correspondent Dana Bash. She's watching the reaction in the Congress to the Haditha incident.
What's the latest, Dana?
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Wolf.
Well, we have some new developments on that front here on Capitol Hill this afternoon. The chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, John Warner, wrote to the defense secretary this letter today, which is clearly intended to push the Pentagon along on its investigations on both Haditha and Hamandiyah.
Senator Warner says that Secretary Rumsfeld should provide him the earliest possible date for witnesses to come before his committee to talk about these issues. Specifically, he said that the American people are entitled to timely disclosure.
Earlier today, Wolf, Senator Warner said he is concerned about the fact that there's public discussion about this without much official word from the Pentagon, and he says that is increasingly harmful.
So, in this letter to the defense secretary, Senator Warner says, quote, "Delays in getting out the official findings of fact due to a protracted review process will mean a mixture of information, misinformation and unconfirmed fact will continue to spiral in the public domain."
So Senator Warner is serving notice to Secretary Rumsfeld that considers this issue the first priority of the Senate Armed Services Committee and that he will hold a series of hearings -- Wolf?
BLITZER: Any indication who he's going to call to testify and when this might all come down?
BASH: Well, he says in the letter, Senator Warner does, that he thinks the best first witness should be General Bargewell who is leading the investigation, the inquiry into how this exactly was reported internally in the military.
But he also is pretty clear -- at least has been with us in the hallways here, Wolf -- that he's probably not going to do that until General Bargewell's investigation is completed. They do think that's going to happen soon.
But one thing that is noteworthy, Wolf, in this letter to Secretary Rumsfeld is that he is silent on whether he will call the defense secretary himself to testify. Senator Warner's office is not ruling that in or out.
You remember, of course, about two years ago after the Abu Ghraib scandal the secretary did actually come up to Capitol Hill and testify. But, of course, since then the Iraq war has gotten even more unpopular. He has personally been under fire, even, of course, recently in the past several weeks, from generals -- former generals, I should say, questioning his war plan on Iraq.
So a Republican congressional official tells CNN they believe the Pentagon will be reluctant to send the defense secretary to testify either before the Senate or House Armed Services Committee, because they realize it could be problematic for him personally, politically and also for the Pentagon, in general -- Wolf?
BLITZER: And Senator Joe Biden has already said he should resign over this incident, but he's been calling for his resignation for some time. Dana, thank you very much. New developments, meanwhile, in the theft of a laptop containing data on some 26 million American veterans. One thousand dollars per victim, that's what the veterans are now demanding in a new class- action lawsuit, the second such case against the government in the last week.
Let's bring in our Internet reporter Abbi Tatton. She's following the story -- Abbi?
ABBI TATTON, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, the lawsuit has been filed on behalf of veterans groups whose members total more than 50,000 people. It alleges that the department showed a reckless disregard for their privacy, and now that 26 million people fear identity theft.
In addition to compensation, the lawsuit also asks for an independent panel to be set up to review and monitor information security at the department. It says there are fundamental deficiencies in that area.
Indeed, a congressional panel in the past has given the Department of Veterans Affairs a failing grade for its computer security.
When asked to comment on this today, a spokesman for Veterans Affairs says they don't comment on pending litigation. They have said repeatedly in the past that there's no evidence this data has been used illegally.
Meanwhile, though, the data is still missing. Local police in Montgomery County, Maryland, today appealing to the public to lookout for this laptop, giving the make and type of computer that is still missing -- Wolf?
BLITZER: All right, Abbi, thank you very much.
From Abbi to Ali, Ali Velshi is standing by in New York to give us the good news, the bad news, the awful news. What's going on, on the markets today, Ali?
ALI VELSHI, CNN BUSINESS NEWS ANCHOR: You remember this thing? This is my 11,722 board, the all-time high on the Dow? We were within 80 points of that a month ago.
BLITZER: We were just there. We were almost there.
VELSHI: EBay, you can get this on eBay, because we're nowhere near it now. We are 640 points lower right now, the Dow closing just above 11,000 today. This is the second day in a row. We took a 200- point hit yesterday, another 46 points. It was trading below 11,000 for most of the day.
People are a little worried about Ben Bernanke and how much he likes to talk and how much he likes to warn everybody about inflation and possible interest rates and a slowing economy. I'm going to have more on this a little later, Wolf, but another tough day on Wall Street.
BLITZER: Ali, thank you very much.
Up next, the fight over illegal immigration. Will this bitter political battle hurt Republicans up for re-election this year? Bill Schneider investigating.
Plus, will today's congressional election in California be a bellwether for the November midterm elections? I'll ask James Carville and Torie Clarke. They're standing by live, right here in today's "Strategy Session."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.
Let's get back to our top story, the border wars. The recent wave of demonstrations by illegal immigrants and their supporters helped put the issue on the political map. Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider is joining us now live with more on immigration and the midterm elections and the elections today.
What's the latest, Bill?
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Wolf, 2006 is likely to be the first election ever in which illegal immigration is a national issue. Which party will benefit? You know, that's not clear.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (voice-over): Republicans around the country are facing a hostile political environment this year. Many believe the issue of illegal immigration will help them survive, like Governor Tim Pawlenty, who is running for re-election in Minnesota.
GOV. TIM PAWLENTY (R), MINNESOTA: It's one of the big-spendin', tax-raisin', abortion-promotin', gay-marriage embracin', more welfare- without-accountability lovin', school-reform resistin', illegal- immigration supportin' Democrats for governor who think Hillary Clinton should be president of the United States.
SCHNEIDER: Republican Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona takes a tough line on border enforcement. Democrat Jim Pederson invokes the name of Arizona's other Republican Senator, John McCain, to criticize Kyl.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, PEDERSON CAMPAIGN AD)
NARRATOR: Senator McCain says Jon Kyl's immigration plan borders on fantasy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCHNEIDER: While Kyl did vote against McCain's immigration bill, McCain is also Kyl's campaign chairman. Illegal immigration is a big issue in today's special election in California's 50th congressional district, 30 miles from the Mexican border. Republican Brian Bilbray, a staunch opponent of illegal immigration, lists his occupation on the ballot as "immigration reform consultant."
When his Democratic opponent, Francine Busby, spoke to a largely Latino audience last week, she was recorded saying this.
BUSBY: You can all help. Yes, you don't need papers for voting. You don't need to be a registered voter to help.
SCHNEIDER: Busby later called her remark a slip of the tongue and explained...
BUSBY: ... that I do not support anybody who's here illegally voting or working on campaigns.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: Independent candidate William Griffith has been endorsed by local anti-illegal immigration activists. And he's likely to take votes from Republican Bilbray, making the outcome highly uncertain -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Are there any districts, any elections out there today, where pro-immigration forces are likely to have an impact?
SCHNEIDER: Well, this isn't a race today, but, in Connecticut, Republican Chris Shays' vote in favor of the House immigration bill has drawn criticism.
California Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, who is a leading Hispanic Democrat, has tried to muster opposition to Shays. And Democrats are hoping to make it an issue against Republican Ric Keller in Florida. His district includes a lot of Cuban Americans.
And, of course, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is trying to avoid alienating that state's sizable Hispanic vote. He responded slowly and cautiously to President Bush's request to send National Guard troops to the border -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Bill Schneider, thank you.
Today, in our "Strategy Session": President Bush traveled to the U.S.-Mexican border once again today to try to renew his push for immigration reform. Is he having any impact on Republican conservatives who so strongly disagree with so much of his plan?
Joining us now, our CNN political analyst, Democratic strategist James Carville, and former Pentagon spokeswoman Torie Clarke.
Here is what the president said today, in part. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There's a growing consensus among all parties and all regions of the country that fundamental reforms are needed. In other words, people are coming to the conclusion we got to do something about a system that isn't working.
And while the differences grab the headlines, the similarities in approaches are striking.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Those differences are significant, especially what the conservatives, Torie, the Republicans who oppose his reform plan, call amnesty for illegal immigrants.
TORIE CLARKE, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I will tell you, I have been traveling outside of Washington a lot lately, which is a very healthy thing to do.
And what I'm struck by is, here in town, we try so hard to simplify things. And this is an incredibly complex process, an incredibly complex problem. And what I found is, state by state, probably district by district, you get variations on themes, variations on opinions.
I can't -- I don't think you can say 50 percent of the Republicans are here. Fifty percent of there, any more than you can say all Republicans or all Democrats. It's very complex. How it will cut politically I think varies from state to state and district to district.
BLITZER: What do you think?
JAMES CARVILLE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I agree with her.
I mean, if -- you know, people -- you take a poll and people, like everybody, who -- everybody wants to strengthen the border. I think the president was absolutely right when he said that. I don't know of anybody that's against border security.
You know, the problem is, is that -- the 12 million that are here. The polls seem to show that an overwhelming majority of people in America don't want to kick these people out of the country, want to have some kind of process to -- to bring them in the system.
(CROSSTALK)
CLARKE: But even...
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: But -- but you're right. It's an intense issue.
I don't -- what -- my problem a little bit with the president is, I actually agree with his position on immigration. But he went -- he goes to New Orleans seven times. Every time I turn around, he's standing on the border with Border Patrol people.
Why isn't he getting there, trying to get the Senate and House together and work something out, as opposed to traveling back and forth to Arizona?
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: I mean, the guy needs to stay in Washington.
CLARKE: Because influencing the information environment is part of influencing the debate...
(CROSSTALK)
CLARKE: ... and by word and deed and by event.
I mean, if the president of the United States, whoever he is, goes somewhere and does an event, it is likely the news media will cover it.
(CROSSTALK)
CLARKE: It is likely that will have an impact on the debate.
CARVILLE: But -- but, Torie, he goes there. OK, he's riding a A.T. I'm saying, what people want is not more visuals of him standing with Border Patrol people. I see him stand with one more Border Patrol guy, I think the guy is going to join the Border Patrol when he leaves.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: You know?
I mean, if...
(CROSSTALK)
CLARKE: He needs another job after 2008.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: Here is what the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, James Sensenbrenner, who is a strong opponent of what the president has in mind about this pathway for citizenship for so many of these illegal immigrants, this is what he says: "How this conference," this joint House-Senate conference committee, "works -- works out will determine whether it will be a key issue in November. We still have a little more than five months before the election. Five months in the political season is kind of like -- is kind of like centuries in history."
Sensenbrenner hasn't budged, as far as I can tell, at all in his opposition to the citizenship part, what he calls amnesty, that the president is endorsing. CLARKE: You know what? Earlier today, I was speaking with a group. And they said, what do you think the chances are of passing legislation? Is it going to be the House bill or the Senate bill? Or will anything pass?
And I said, I don't think either one. I think it's a 50/50 chance of anything passing. What I think people ought to look for is, you know, is your member of Congress, who is up for reelection, trying to get something done, or is he just so steadfastly addicted to his position, he won't move?
Now, what is going to determine that is, each of those members of Congress is not thinking, God bless them, about the entire country. They aren't really thinking about those 10 or 12 million people. They're thinking, how is it going to influence my reelection chances?
CARVILLE: Well, they got something done in 1986. And everybody says it was the wrong thing. It's better, I think...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: That's when they passed amnesty and they promised to strengthen the border. But that promise never materialized.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: ... Alan Simpson, who is a really decent guy, said it was a mistake.
You know, so, I mean, the idea that, somehow or another, if they get something done, I mean, I think there are a lot of commentators that -- that say, best -- maybe better not to do something. I -- you know, I -- it's a very complex thing. I sure don't know the answer to it. But I think I favor, personally favor, the president's approach a little bit more than the....
CLARKE: I think a great fallback position for all of them would be say -- would be to say, OK, if we can't come up with anything new that works, let's enforce the existing laws.
BLITZER: All right.
CLARKE: That...
BLITZER: James...
CLARKE: ... in and of itself...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: James, how big is this election near San Diego right now, that Duke Cunningham, who is now in jail, the ex-congressman, this contest, in a very, very Republican district...
CARVILLE: Right. BLITZER: Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego, said this: "If Republicans lose a district that is this Republican, they ought to be real worried. It's driven by unhappiness with the state of the nation."
What is your assessment?
CARVILLE: This is one of these things where the Democratic spin is actually true.
If -- if the Republicans win it in a close race, it's not that big a story. If the Democrat wins, it's an enormous story. I mean, this is what happens when really -- I mean, it is. It -- it -- it -- the man bite -- bit dogs is the Democrat winning this district. The dog bites man is the Republican winning this district.
And they're a little bit at an unfair disadvantage. But, you know, we will see. And if it is close, it -- it -- you know, she is obviously going to run closer than she did the last time. We're going to have to wait and see.
CLARKE: I think people on all sides will hype it and spin it to the best of their abilities. I still believe, at the end of the day, every other member's of Congress chances of reelection, Republicans especially, has more to do with the job they have done and what they are doing for their constituency, than what happens in this race.
BLITZER: So, you don't believe these national trends that we...
CLARKE: I don't -- I don't believe the hype that surrounds something like this and the desire about people like us in the news media and others to portray it as something far bigger than it is.
(CROSSTALK)
CLARKE: It is one race in a particularly unique district with a particularly unique problem, that being Duke Cunningham.
BLITZER: You remember 1994, when Democrats lost control.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: There was a heavy national trend then.
CARVILLE: Right.
BLITZER: And it got a lot of Democrats out of office.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: You know, you talk to people. Give the Republicans credit. Talk to people at the National Republican Campaign Committee, or talk to them at the RNC, they are aware of the trouble they're in.
I think we were a little bit more in denial in 1994 than they are. I think they are scared to death. But I do think -- and this is one of these instances where it's just that the truth is, if the Democrat wins, it will be a much bigger story here on THE SITUATION ROOM...
CLARKE: Sure.
CARVILLE: ... than if the Republican wins. That's just the nature of it. Rightly or wrongly, that's -- that's what it is.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: We will find out later tonight.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: Uh-huh.
BLITZER: Thanks to James Carville and Torie Clarke.
CLARKE: Thank you.
BLITZER: And, as you saw earlier, Bill Schneider, they are all part of the best political team on television -- CNN, America's campaign headquarters.
Up next, we have got our eyes on a potential political shift of real importance. Our Jeff Greenfield is monitoring the story. He's standing by live.
Plus, critical new developments in the nuclear standoff between Iran and the West that could mark the beginning of a resolution or an increase in tension -- that's coming up, details, at the top of the hour.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back.
A former governor of Massachusetts took himself out of the running today to be governor of New York. William Weld dropped out of the race, saying this is not the time for a contested Republican primary.
And that paves the way for a more conservative candidate, John Faso, to seal the GOP nomination and face Democrat Eliot Spitzer in November.
Let's bring in our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield. He has got more on the twists and turns.
Party politics in New York, always fascinating stuff, Jeff.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Wolf, two political items today from two very different parts of the country, put them together and you have a potential political shift of real importance. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GREENFIELD (voice-over): The first one comes from Kansas, reported in "USA Today" this morning. Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius has chosen Mark Parkinson as her running mate. So what? Parkinson is a former Republican state chair, who worked very hard to defeat Sebelius four years ago.
WILLIAM WELD (R), FORMER MASSACHUSETTS GOVERNOR: I, William F. Weld...
GREENFIELD: The second story comes from New York state, where William Weld, former governor of Massachusetts, had hoped to be the GOP nominee for governor of New York this year.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you very much.
(APPLAUSE)
GREENFIELD: The Republican state convention overwhelmingly gave its endorsement to conservative John Faso. This morning, Weld dropped out.
WELD: I have come to the conclusion that this is not the time for a contested primary in this party.
GREENFIELD: So, what links these two stories? Step back for a moment and look at the recent past. More than 40 years ago, when the national Democrats embraced the civil rights movement, many Southern Democrats began to bolt the party. They were led by South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond in 1964.
In the years that followed, many one-time Democrats switched. Phil Gramm of Texas, who later became a senator, Alabama Senator Richard Shelby and Colorado Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell, who switched after they were elected. Indeed, one of the keys to Republican dominance of the Congress is that politicians who once would have been conservative Democrats now vote and even run and win as Republicans.
By contrast, only a relative handful of one-time Republicans now hold office as Democrats, in the House, Loretta Sanchez of California, Carolyn McCarthy of New York, Mike Doyle of Pennsylvania.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Government has a responsibility to be fair.
GREENFIELD: And, this year, James Webb, who served as Ronald Reagan's secretary of the Navy, is running as a Democrat for the Senate seat in Virginia now held by George Allen.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GREENFIELD: So, what does all this have to do with William Weld? Well, say the moderate liberal Republicans find themselves increasingly on the outs with their party's conservative base. Say Rudy Giuliani is effectively ruled out of the presidential race because of his relatively liberal social views.
And let's say that, in November, incumbent moderate liberal House Republicans in the Northeast lose a significant number of seats. Some of these Republicans may discover the same thing that conservative Democrats discovered a generation ago, that they would be happier and politically healthier in the other party -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Is that at all theoretically possible this time around, like Chris Shays of Connecticut, a moderate Republican, deciding, you know what, it's too hard winning in this sort of liberal Democratic district in Connecticut; I'm just going to become a Democrat?
GREENFIELD: Well, we have seen a little bit of this. A generation ago, even in New York, Ogden Reid, scion of the -- of an old Republican family, switched parties to become a Democrat.
But what I'm suggesting here is that, if this November brings particular misfortune to liberal and moderate Republicans in the Northeast, where a lot of them are endangered, it might not be them so much as their -- their successors who are going to say the same thing as I said that the Democrats in the South said a generation ago, saying, I just don't belong in this party anymore.
This is not a prediction, because you know how I feel about predictions. It's -- call it a canary -- we will see if it's a canary in the coal mine or not. But it's something to keep an eye on.
BLITZER: We will. Thank you very much, Jeff Greenfield, our analyst, reporting for us.
And coming up: the president and the people. Is Mr. Bush gaining or losing ground in the polls? The latest numbers on our "Political Radar," that's coming up.
And the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations on the nuclear standoff with Iran -- is a proposed deal and the prospect of direct talks with Tehran dead in the water or is it alive? John Bolton here in THE SITUATION ROOM, that's coming up in the next hour.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: There she is, Zain Verjee. She is joining us again from the CNN Center with a closer look at some other important stories making news -- Zain.
VERJEE: Wolf, if they won't eat, the Pentagon says they will continue their policy of force-feeding terror detainees. That was outlined in a statement that sets the rules for U.S. military doctors and medics in detainee operations. At the U.S. Navel base at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, doctors have recently force-fed terror detainees who have mounted hunger strikes to protest their detention or treatment.
The Health and Human Services secretary reportedly says that states will decide how to ration bird flu vaccines if a global pandemic occurs. Secretary Mike Leavitt made the statement in an interview with the Associated Press. The AP quotes Leavitt as saying that, once doses are produced -- quote -- "This is a battle that will be fought in thousands of communities simultaneously."
And singer/songwriter Billy Preston is dead. The man known for hits like ""Will It Go 'Round In Circles" and "Nothing From Nothing" died today in Arizona. Preston had been suffering for a really long time with kidney failure. His manager says Preston had been in a coma since November. Billy Preston was 59 years old -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Thank you, Zain, for that.
Up next: Could Iran inflict more pain at the pumps? Concerns about an oil cutoff, that's coming up in "The Cafferty File." Jack will be right back with your e-mail.
Also, more blood in the streets of Baghdad today and allegations of atrocities by U.S. troops. Former Defense Secretary William Cohen assesses the damage to the overall mission in Iraq.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Jack Cafferty is back with "The Cafferty File" -- Jack.
Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman says the U.S. government will tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if Iran were to cut off its oil supplies. Iran is threatening to do that if it is punished because of its nuclear program.
The question we asked is: Do you think Americans would suffer if Iran cuts off its oil supply?
Scott writes this: "I don't think suffer is the right word, but we will be a bit put out. But maybe that is a good thing and will wake us up to the fact that we don't worry about issues like this until it stings a bit."
This reads like Zain wrote it.
"We should have been addressing this situation 10 to 20 years ago."
Henry in New Orleans writes: "We should not be concerned by a disruption in oil to the United States. There are people in this world with real problems. In some parts of the world, people have no homes, no livelihood. They are surrounded by devastation daily. They don't have a government to step in and help them. Wait a minute. That's us down here in New Orleans."
George in Deltaville, Virginia: "Jack, I think the Iranians are bluffing. They need the oil revenues to run their country." M.S. in Piscataway, New Jersey: "I think Americans need to suffer in the short term to get them off this addiction to oil. That's the only way. Gas, $6 a gallon, the sooner, the better. Let's save some oil for our future generations."
Mike in New York: "I think Americans and the whole world will suffer more if Iran gets a nuclear weapon. Jack, how about looking at the bigger picture once in a while?"
Lucy in Richland, Washington: "Most Americans don't know what suffering means. How can they possibly answer this question?"
And Ian in Shelton, Connecticut: "I believe a recent report suggested the answer to this question was an unqualified 'Yes.' It was published in the magazine 'Duh.'"
(LAUGHTER)
CAFFERTY: Wolf.
BLITZER: Jack, thank you very much. See you in the next hour.
And the president of the United States has just spoken to reporters, answering questions on the situation involving Iran. We're going to go to Laredo, Texas, and get the tape of what the president said.
We will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
