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Tough Immigration Stance May Have Helped Republicans Hold Onto California Congressional Seat; President Bush Firing Back At Conservatives Calling For Massive Deportation Of Immigrants; California Set For Showdown Between Governor Schwarzenegger And Democratic Challenger Phil Angelides; High Profile Primaries Laying Groundwork For Crucial November Elections; Senate Rejects Constitutional Amendment To Ban Gay Marriage
Aired June 07, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Ali, thanks very much.
And to our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world, to bring you today's top stories. Happening now, it's 1:00 p.m. in California, where Republicans barely hold on to a vacant congressional seat, by taking a hard-line stance on immigration. Is this a midterm message for other candidates this election year?
It's 3:00 p.m. in Omaha, Nebraska, where President Bush offers a mixed message on immigration. He calls for a crackdown on the border and a bit of compassion for those who have already made it across.
And a move to keep gay couples from walking down the aisle fails to win a majority when Republicans cross the aisle. It's 4:00 p.m. in Washington, where the Senate rejects the constitutional amendment on same sex marriage.
I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Traveling from the border to the heartland, President Bush has wrapped up a three-state push for his immigration proposals. In Omaha today, he called for tougher steps to keep illegal immigrants out of this country, but he also called for measures that would help others assimilate into American society.
In California, meantime, a tough stance at immigration helps a Republican keep a congressional seat in a Republican district. It's a signal that the border battle may be a battle cry in this year's elections.
Our White House correspondent Ed Henry is standing by, but let's go to Del Mar, California. A very scenic site. John King is there with the latest.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, a win is a win is a win. That's a cliche, but it's also true in politics and Republicans will take their victory in the special congressional election here. But, some say it comes at high price. The Republican candidate won by directly attacking the Republican president. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice-over): Victory for Brian Bilbray means survival for Republicans in their first big midterm election test, but the California race offers sobering lessons for both the president and his party, beginning with immigration politics.
BRIAN BILBRAY (R), CALIFORNIA CONGRESSMAN-ELECT: The president proposing amnesty was absolutely a big problem
KING: As the count broke his way over night, Bilbray told CNN he won because of his vehement opposition to the president's call for a guest worker program, putting millions of illegal immigrants on a path to citizenship. Now Bilbray says he will urge other Republicans to copy his tough election message.
BILBRAY: Don't listen to the Senate and don't listen to the White House. They mean well, but they're not listening to the people.
KING: The immigration issue has added intensity in the San Diego area district, just miles from the Mexican border. Still, conservatives who oppose the president's approach were quick to see the vote here as ratification.
GARY JACOBSON, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT SAN DIEGO: I think the prospects of anything getting through Congress before the election is virtually zero.
KING: Nationally, Republicans prefer to focus on the bottom line. California's 50th congressional district will remain in GOP hands. Francine Busby's defeat denied Democrats their first big 2006 target, even though she insists there's a message in coming so close.
FRANCINE BUSBY (D), CALIFORNIAN CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: We need a government that works for us, not for special interest. And people are actually, they're fed up with the direction that we're going in.
KING: Busby climbed from 36 percent two years ago to 45 percent against Bilbray, suggesting to political scientist Gary Jacobson the national climate still favors Democrats.
JACOBSON: I think the national message is that she came fairly close in a district that's overwhelmingly Republican. A lot of Democrats with seven or eight more points would put a lot of Republicans in trouble.
KING: The election was to fill the final seven months of the term Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned earlier this year because of a corruption conviction. Bilbray and Busby will face off again for a full term in November. Higher turn out should favor Republican Bilbray.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: Another lesson here is that money matters. National Republicans poured more than $5 million into this race, more than double the Democrats. That money used for television ads and a voter turnout effort that helped Republicans, Wolf, squeak out a win here in a district, in a normal year, they would win easily -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Is it a forgone conclusion, barring some unforeseen circumstance, that since he beat her now, he's almost certainly going to beat her in November? Is that the thinking out there in California?
KING: Even Democrats concede the likelihood that Bilbray will win again in November. Why? Because the turnout is generally higher in November than it would be in a primary or special election. You also have the governor's race on the ballot here in November, a hotly contested race.
Arnold Schwarzenegger running for reelection in a tough race. He has pretty good support in this Republican district, down here. Everyone, even the Democrats concede, if the Democrats were going to win this seat, this was probably their best shot, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, John, thanks very much. Let's go to the White House. Ed Henry is standing by. The president was out speaking on immigration once again today. What are they saying?
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, the president realize he has a problem trying to sell a plan that critics in his own party call amnesty, so he's trying to fight back.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY (voice-over): One day after alleging his critics are using the word amnesty as a scare tactic, President Bush fired back at conservatives calling for massive deportation of immigrants.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It makes no sense at all to say we can find people and, you know, run them out of the country. For some, I guess, that sounds appealing. It's impractical. It's not going to work. And it's not necessary, in my judgment.
HENRY: The president asserted again he's not for amnesty, insisting his plan does not let illegal immigrants off the hook.
BUSH: You have got to pay a fine for being here illegally. You have got to learn the English language pay your debt to society. And if you choose to be a citizen, you can, just you wait in line at the back, not in the beginning.
HENRY: While pushing back on amnesty, the president is offering conservatives some olive branches, talking tough on border security at a Tuesday stop in New Mexico. And after touring a Catholic charity center Wednesday in Nebraska, the president stressed the need for assimilation, teaching immigrants American values and culture before they earn citizenship.
BUSH: I saw a place where people were learning to speak English and learning the civic lessons of what it means to be an American citizen.
HENRY: But the president stumped the students when he asked how many father/son teams have served as President of the United States. After noting his own father was the nation's 41st president, Mr. Bush revealed the other duo.
BUSH: Juan Adams, Isolito Juan Q (ph).
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY: The president said he's still hopeful he can break the impasse on immigration reform on Capitol Hill, but he also acknowledged the obvious, that this fight over amnesty is what he called the ultimate stumbling block to forging some sort of a compromise, Wolf.
BLITZER: What are they saying at the White House, Ed? Bilbray wins running against the president's position on immigration reform. The Republican, presumably other Republican candidates around the country are going to draw some lessons from that, that it pays to go against the president's stance on comprehensive immigration reform.
HENRY: White House spokesman Tony Snow is trying to put the best face on it, he's saying two things. Number one, as John King was noting for Republicans, a win is a win and they'll take it any day. But, secondly, on the question of immigration, for a White House that insists they don't read the polls, Tony Snow today cited polling data that as people learn more about the president's immigration plan and have time to get past the rhetoric and look at the details, Republican candidates that stick with the president, according to the White House, will do well in the long run.
The problem for this president, as he knows full well though, in the short term he's taking a beating on the issue of amnesty and it's hard to get past all that in the long term. In the short term he's taking a big hit, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, thanks very much. Ed Henry, reporting from the White House. Let's go back to California where the state is now set for a showdown between the governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and the newly crowned Democratic challenger, the state treasurer Phil Angelides. Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider is joining now with more on this race, Bill.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Wolf, it's Angelides versus Schwarzenegger. Try saying that three times fast.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (voice-over): Can the treasurer bring down the terminator?
PHIL ANGELIDES (D), GUBERNATORIAL NOMINEE: I'll be hitting the road first thing tomorrow morning as the Democratic nominee for governor of the state of California.
SCHNEIDER: Phil Angelides is the establishment Democrat, the political insider, the nerd.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People want a real governor. They've had enough of the show.
SCHNEIDER: If the Democrats have their way, this race will look like revenge of the nerds. Meaning revenge for the 2003 recall when Arnold Schwarzenegger kicked sand in Gray Davis' face. But Angelides was bloodied by the nasty Democratic primary. Most California voters had an unfavorable opinion of Angelides and a favorable opinion of Schwarzenegger.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The governor got the candidate he wanted to run against.
SCHNEIDER: But you know what they say, be careful what you wish for. You just might get it. Schwarzenegger hit rock bottom last year when he tried to play the tough guy. He picked fights with Democrats, unions, school teachers, nurses. They brought the terminator down by defeating all his propositions last year. Now look who's kicking sand.
ANGELIDES: I'm someone who is a fighter.
SCHNEIDER: But Schwarzenegger has a comeback strategy.
ALAN HOFFENBLUM, REPUBLICAN POLITICAL CONSULTANT: And all of a sudden, dare you see the governor, the Republican governor and the Democratically controlled state legislature working together.
SCHNEIDER: Schwarzenegger gave up the tough talk, the shrill ideology. Instead he's talking about ...
GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA: About how we created $20 billion more in revenues. And how we've brought Democrats and Republicans together in order to solve our infrastructure problem.
SCHNEIDER: What's happened to Arnold?
HOFFENBLUM: As you got rid of the celebrity image, the Terminator image, and he's wearing a suit every day, he's really trying to, you know, do the perception as a governor.
SCHNEIDER: The Governator is turning into the nerd.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
Box office, the people of California don't want to see a governor who picks fights with people. They want to see a nice governor who brings people together and solves problems. A nerd, Wolf.
BLITZER: I was out in California a few weeks ago. There are some Democrats who don't necessarily like this nominee, Phil Angelides, do they?
SCHNEIDER: It was a very nasty fight. He won with less than 50 percent of the vote after a very tough campaign and very low turnout. He is the establishment candidate. He's pretty liberal. He's going to have a tough fight. Right now most people I've spoken to think this race in California is going to be very close.
BLITZER: Bill Schneider, thank you very much.
From one end of the country to the another, there were high profile primaries in a number of states laying the groundwork for crucial November elections. Our Brian Todd joining us now with a roundup of some of the results. Brian.
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, let's start with the showdown in Alabama where God and politics were key in the gubernatorial campaign.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GOV. BOB RILEY (R), ALABAMA: And all of the people in Alabama, thank you!
TODD (voice-over): An easy victory for Alabama's governor Bob Riley. He beat back a Republican primary challenge by former Alabama chief justice Roy Moore. Moore became a hero to religious conservatives when he was forced from office for refusing to remove a display of The Ten Commandments from the state judicial building.
Alabama's lieutenant governor, Lucy Baxley, easily topped former Governor Don Siegelman in the Democratic primary. Siegelman is currently on trial in charges of bribery and racketeering.
In California, a victory for former governor and presidential candidate, Jerry Brown, he's currently mayor of Oakland. But now he's also the Democratic nominee for California attorney general.
SEN. CONRAD BURNS (R), MONTANA: All right. I'll see if I can't work that out.
TODD: In Montana, Senator Conrad Burns easily won his primary against three Republicans despite his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. He'll face off this November against Montana State Senate President Jon Tester, who should be a tough opponent.
In New Jersey, the field is set for what's expected to be an extremely close Senate race. Democrat and current senator Robert Menendez and Republican Tom Cain Jr., the son of a former popular governor. Each breezed through the primaries.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
One other contest to mention. Democrat and Iowa Secretary of State Chet Culver and Republican Congressman Jim Nussle were winners last night and face off to succeed Tom Vilsack as Iowa governor.
BLITZER: Thank you, Brian, for that. Despite some heavy pressure for President Bush it was the same old same old on same sex marriage. The Senate today rejected a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. Opponents of the ban included a number of Republicans. Let's go live to our congressional correspondent Dana Bash.
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The Senate did not get the majority that backers predicted in part because some Republicans openly defied President Bush's argument that because of challenges in state courts that there is a need for a federal ban that would protect traditional marriage.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BASH (voice-over): The Republican sponsor of a same sex marriage ban opened the week with a bold prediction.
SEN. WAYNE ALLARD (R), COLORADO: That we will gain more than a majority on this vote. I think that's a very significant milestone. This will be the first time since this amendment has been brought up in the Senate that we will have had more than 50 percent.
BASH: But that didn't happen.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The yeas are 49, the nays are 48.
BASH: And the sting of defeat was impossible to hide.
ALLARD: We were hoping to get over 50 percent but that didn't happen today.
BASH: GOP supporters of a federal same sex marriage ban knew they'd be far short of the 67 votes needed to change the Constitution. But Senate Republicans gained four seats since last voting on this in 2004 and thought this time they proved their position is gaining steam. Now it's their opponents claiming victory.
JOHN SOLMONESE, HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN: I don't think they've got any momentum on this issue. I think the momentum on this issues is on our side and I think we saw that today in the way that they fell so short on what they predicted they would get.
BASH: What happened? Two Republicans, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, who voted yes on this measure two years ago switched. Gregg made clear he now disagrees with President Bush's argument that federal intervention is necessary because the courts are undermining the traditional definition of marriage.
Fortunately, such legal pandemonium has not ensued, Gregg said. A third senator Republicans were relying on, Chuck Hagel, did not vote. He was with President Bush in his home state of Nebraska. Supporters vowed not to give up and took the long view.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The nation has to some degree focused on this issue. We've had a debate about what the consequences are for this country if the definition of marriage is changed in America.
(END VIDEOTAPE) BASH: The question now is how this will all affect the urgent Republican desire to try to appeal to the conservative base. Some conservative activists say this will actually galvanize the rank and file. But others, I talked to other Republican strategists, they say there's no way to slice this any other way, that this was a defeat for President Bush and GOP congressional leaders and that this perhaps could make them look out of touch. Wolf.
BLITZER: Just want to point out to our viewers, Dana, there were two Democrats who voted for the amendment, Robert Byrd of West Virginia, Ben Nelson of Nebraska. Dana Bash, thank you very much. Dana, Ed Henry, Bill Schneider, John King, Brian Todd, all part of the best political team on television. CNN, America's campaign headquarters.
While the U.S. Senate stood firm against a gay marriage ban, Alabama voters have overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment to ban same sex marriage in the state. Homosexual unions are already illegal there. And in Pennsylvania, the House has passed an amendment to the state constitution aimed at bolstering an existing ban on same sex marriages.
Coming up in the next hour right here in THE SITUATION ROOM I'll speak with Cardinal Theodore McCarrick, the Roman Catholic Archbishop of Washington. Can he live with civil unions among homosexuals? You might be surprised at his answer. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Let's go up to New York. Jack Cafferty is standing by with "The Cafferty File."
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: We're approaching the five year anniversary of the September 11th terror attacks against this country. And the chairmen, both of the them, of the 9/11 Commission have sounded another dire warning. Tom Cain and Lee Hamilton told a U.S. House panel today that this country remains dangerously behind on key security improvements.
They said there's been little progress since they issued their last report card in December. That's when they gave D's and F's for things like airlines' screening, funding and information sharing. In a kind of a frightening statement, Kane said it's hard to get below an F, if I could I might have.
They added that access to nuclear material is one of the biggest threats and they question the decisions for homeland security funding that included cuts for New York and Washington, the two sites of the 9/11 attacks. So here's the question this hour. How long should it take to make America secure? E-mail your thoughts to CaffertyFile@CNN.com or go to CNN.com/CaffertyFile.
BLITZER: Is there a grade below an F, jack?
CAFFERTY: Apparently not but Tom Cain said if he could have given a lower mark he might have been tempted to do that. He's not happy. BLITZER: Sounds like he might want to expel that student if he's that bad.
CAFFERTY: He used to run one of the colleges here. He's an old academician and a pretty good guy.
BLITZER: I remember. I know him quite well. If you want a sneak preview of Jack's questions, plus an early read on the day's political news, what's ahead in THE SITUATION ROOM, sign up for our daily e-mail alert. Just go to CNN.com/situationroom.
Coming up, the Marines' top general speaks out over allegations of troop misconduct in Iraq. That's just one of the new developments coming your way in the crisis in Iraq. That's coming up next.
Also, is New Orleans getting whiter, wealthier and older thanks to Hurricane Katrina? The details of a new report when we get the situation online. Plus, Republicans win a close one in yesterday's special congressional election in California. Is this a trend for the GOP? Jeff Greenfield looking into that story. Stay with us.
You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Want to show you a live picture from Andrews Air Force Base, coming in from outside Washington, D.C. This C-17 U.S. Air Force military transport plane just landed seconds ago, bringing Kimberly Dozier, the CBS News reporter, along with about 40 other injured Americans from Germany back to the United States. Kimberly Dozier, as you know, was badly injured on Memorial Day, a car bombing in Iraq.
Her two-man crew were killed as well as a U.S. soldier and a translator. Kimberly will be transported from Andrews Air Force Base to the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland for additional treatment. We'll cover this story. We'll go back there live. We'll also hope for the very best for Kimberly and those 40 other injured Americans on that military transport plane.
In the meantime, let's check in with Zain Verjee. She's joining us from the CNN Global Headquarters with closer look at some other important stories making news -- Zain.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, we begin with this developing story. The FBI says it's arrested a Saudi National at Fort Benning, Georgia, on federal charges that he threatened to blow up an airplane. The 45-year-old Saleh Nassir al-Suwailem (ph) was on the base undergoing training as a language translator. A federal complaint signed in Columbus, Georgia, says he made the threat to a fellow Fort Benning staffer.
The commandant of the Marine Corps is not saying a whole lot about investigations into charges that some of his troops murdered civilians in two incidents in western Iraq. The most notorious incident involved the November killings of 24 Iraqis at Haditha. The second resulted in the death of one Iraqi man in April. The nation's top marine does say that the Corps is fully committed to getting to the bottom of both.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEN. MICHAEL HAGEE, MARINE CORPS COMMANDANT: Where compliance with our standards is in question, we use well-established processes to determine as accurately and expeditiously as possible what happened and why. But make no mistake. A marine who has been found to have violated our standards will be held accountable.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VERJEE: We're going to go live to the Pentagon for more on this story next hour.
At least eight people are the latest to die in internal violence in Iraq. In western Baghdad's Mansour neighborhood that you see here, gunmen in two cars killed five people when they opened fire. A civilian died when another neighborhood was hit by a mortar round. In eastern Baghdad, a roadside bomb killed two high ranking police officers. Five other bodies were found just scattered about the city.
Fifteen of the 50 people abducted on Monday in Baghdad are free. They were found in three groups late today. They told police that they had been tortured. Now, it's really unclear who kidnapped them and where the other 35 are.
Hundreds of detainees are also free today under an initiative by Iraq's new leadership to foster national reconciliation. Almost 600 were let go in Baghdad. Some of them just fell to the ground on their knees and kissed the ground -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Thank you, Zain, for that. We'll check back with you soon.
Whiter, wealthier and older -- that's the new New Orleans, according to two reports released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. With more on how Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita have influenced the population makeup along the Gulf Coast, let's go to our Internet reporter Abbi Tatton -- Abbi.
ABBI TATTON, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, this is the first study done by the U.S. Census Bureau post-hurricane, and some of the results in it are dramatic. Look at St. Bernard's Parish, for example, in New Orleans, devastated by the storm. The population before the hurricane, around 64,000 people. That dropped, as of January 1st of this year, and went down to about 3,000.
The study looked at 117 counties and parishes, all receiving FEMA hurricane assistance. It showed not just the size of population changing, but also the makeup. Look at the Greater New Orleans Metropolitan Area here. The white population went from about 59 percent up to 73 percent. Meanwhile, the black population changed. It decreased 37 percent, roughly, down to about 22 percent. Also showing which of the counties grew. Harris County in Texas -- this is where Houston is -- up about 90,000 people. Population experts I spoke to in Texas stressed to me that this just looked at households. It didn't take into account people in hotels or shelters. Therefore, the information, while useful, is somewhat limited in scope -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Abbi, thank you very much.
Up next, a win for the Republicans in California, but back here in Washington, both parties trying to claim a victory. We'll go live to Capitol Hill for the spin over the election and what yesterday's vote means for the battle over immigration.
Plus, was the gay marriage vote in the Senate today worth it for conservatives? I'll ask Bill Press and J.C. Watts. They're standing by live in today's "Strategy Session." Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington. Let's check in with Ali Velshi. Another down day on the markets. It seemed like only yesterday, Ali, we were talking about record highs, but things did not necessarily materialize.
(STOCK MARKET REPORT)
BLITZER: Ali, thank you very much for that. Ali Velshi reporting.
Let's get back to our top story now. Republicans barely hold onto the California congressional seat vacated by jailed former Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham. It seems a tough stand on immigration made the difference. Will that be a rallying cry for others in November?
Let's go live to our congressional correspondent Andrea Koppel -- Andrea.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, needless to say, Republican leaders here on the Hill today were claiming victory on all fronts, saying that all politics is local, and repudiating Democrats' efforts to nationalize these elections and make them all about the Republicans' culture of corruption and Randy "Duke" Cunningham's conviction on bribery charges.
Instead, Republican leaders claim that many San Diego voters cast their ballots based on Bilbray's border-security-first approach to immigration reform.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. DENNIS HASTERT (R-IL), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: The Democrats ran a race on amnesty and border insecurity and raising taxes. That message doesn't resonate to the American people. We won. We won fair and square. And we have won on a message that we will be continuing to work on across this country.
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: Well, I wish we had won. But I do think there was a message there for the Republicans. They spent over $5 million to win by four points on a district that is about 20 percent Republican advantage. I don't know how they can sustain that effort throughout the country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KOPPEL: But the question is, what impact might Bilbray victory and his opposition to a guest-worker program have on prospects for a House-Senate compromise on immigration reform?
Even before the election results were in, House Republicans were already showing no sign that they were ready to back off their tough border-security-only bill. After his victory, in fact, Bilbray boasted that he had won because he had bucked President Bush's approach to immigration reform and took a harder line.
Now, that is music to the ears of most House Republicans. According to one House GOP aide, he said the results were a reassurance that the American electorate is seeking border security.
Another GOP aide said that members are already pretty hardened in their positions on this issue, and said no bill is better than a bad bill. People believe that this election result, again, according to this GOP aide, Bush -- aide validates that -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Andrea, thank you very much.
Today, in our "Strategy Session": President Bush was out once again pushing for comprehensive immigration reform. Is he making any progress in winning over the critics? Is the best strategy to run with or against the president's policies in November?
Joining us now, Democratic analyst and radio talk show Bill Press, and CNN political analyst and former Republican Congressman J.C. Watts.
Listen to what the winner in this contest, Brian Bilbray, said in reacting to why he won.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BRIAN BILBRAY (R), CALIFORNIA CONGRESSMAN-ELECT: The president proposing amnesty was absolutely a big problem. And, in fact, it wasn't until I was able to highlight the fact that I did not agree with my friends in the Senate or my friend in the White House on amnesty that we really saw the polls start supporting me strongly.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: He says he won because, in effect, he was running against the president.
J.C. WATTS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Wolf, I think there's some merit to that. I think he's right. I think what the American people are saying, as I travel around the country, is that they think the president is offering amnesty.
Now, he may not be doing that. But that's the impression that they have. The American people want border security -- border security. And then let's talk about the other things. Now, I think the president needs to make a difference between allowing people to come in on a work permit and amnesty. But people are thinking amnesty right now. And I don't think that gets him anywhere.
BLITZER: What do you think?
BILL PRESS, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Well, first, I have got to say, as former Democratic chair, I have walked precincts in that district.
BLITZER: Democratic chair in California.
PRESS: In California.
For Francine Busby to get 45 percent against any Republican there is a miracle. But I think this message from Bilbray and the message of this election is a pretty troubling one for the White House. I think it sends two messages, one, to other candidates around the country, run away from George Bush on this issue as fast as you can.
And, two, it sends a message to Tancredo and Sensenbrenner, the other hard-liners, J.D. Hayworth, in the House, hold tight, buck Bush. And that's a winning strategy.
BLITZER: But, if they do that, that is presumably going to hurt Democrats, right?
PRESS: Oh, well...
BLITZER: If they run against the president on immigration reform...
PRESS: I'm...
BLITZER: ... because you say this is a popular issue.
PRESS: Look, I'm just talking strategically.
BLITZER: Yes.
PRESS: I'm not talking here what's good or what is best for Democrats. I'm saying, for this election, I think is going to embolden...
BLITZER: Would it be a smart strategy, though, for Democrats to follow Bilbray and to run against the president on comprehensive immigration reform?
PRESS: No, because I -- well, I -- no, I think -- because I think he's wrong. I mean, I think the Democrats have taken their position. They back the president on this one issue. I really think that's where most of the American people are.
BLITZER: Here...
PRESS: But the conservatives don't want anything to do with guest worker, nothing to do with amnesty. And I think they win on this issue.
BLITZER: Here's what Arlen Specter, a moderate Republican senator from Pennsylvania, says: "This is more than an Oval Office speech and it's more than going to New Mexico. I think he's got to get involved in the negotiations, in the nuts and bolts."
If the president wants comprehensive reform, including a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, he's got to get into the trenches.
WATTS: Well, it depends on what Senator Specter means when he says he has to get into the trenches. If he is wanting to get into the trenches to talk about a guest-worker program, that's good, because, again, I think there's a difference in a guest-worker program and how you put people on a path for citizenship.
People could be here illegally and be put on a path to citizenship. That's what the American people are opposed to. Jim Sensenbrenner himself said, there's room for negotiation, in terms of a guest-worker program.
And, Bill, also, let me make one comment concerning that race in California. Brian Bilbray won in the most probably tainted congressional district in the country. And they tried to use culture of corruption. And he won in spite of all of that, being against amnesty, for border security. Let's talk about guest-worker program.
PRESS: Look, he -- look, he won. I grant you that. I know that district. Republicans always get 70 percent in that district. Bilbray is not tainted. And he barely eked it out.
But I want to come back to your question, Wolf. I think Specter is right. You know, the president goes out there, and he has a big photo-op with all these Border Patrol guards standing around him. There aren't any votes out there. The votes he needs are on the Hill. He can give 1,000 photo-ops. It's not going to change a vote in the House.
BLITZER: J.C...
PRESS: I think he's got to sit down with these guys.
WATTS: Yes.
BLITZER: ... the Senate decided 49-48 against -- 49 in favor of a constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage, well short of the 67, two-thirds majority, you need for a constitutional amendment, didn't even get a majority of the Senate. Was it a mistake for Republicans to push this issue right now?
WATTS: I don't think it was, Wolf.
As I said Monday, on this show, there's never a wrong time to do the right thing. I thought we would probably get about three more votes than they actually got. We had two votes that flipped, that went with the Democrats. But I think it is very important to frame this issue, let the American people know the work that has to be done to get there. And I do believe the American people think this is good public policy.
BLITZER: Listen to what Senator Brownback of Kansas...
PRESS: Sure.
BLITZER: ... one of the supporters of this constitutional amendment, said in reacting to this setback.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. SAM BROWNBACK (R), KANSAS: We will not stop until union -- until marriage, as the union of a man and a woman, is protected in this country, protected in the courts, protected in the Constitution, but, most of all, protected for the people and for the future of our children in this society.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PRESS: Wolf, I have to say, first of all, I think this amendment is unconstitutional. I think it's immoral.
But, just talking strategically, I don't know what they gained by this at all. In fact, talk back to the president and tie these two issues together. I think he's got them backwards. He's attacking conservatives and going against them and fighting them on illegal immigration, which everybody really cares about and affects millions of Americans. And, yet, he's sucking up to them on this gay-marriage amendment that everybody knows is not going anywhere, is not going to make any difference.
And most Americans care more about gas prices than they do about two lesbians getting married in Provincetown.
BLITZER: Bill Press and J.C. Watts, unfortunately, we have got to leave it right there. Thanks to both of you.
BLITZER: And up next: Republicans win another close one. So, what's their magic when it comes to competitive contests? Our Jeff Greenfield takes a closer look.
And, later, tough talk from Tom DeLay toward his fellow Republicans -- we will tell you what he had to say in today's "Political Radar."
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: As we told you, Republicans just barely hung on to that vacated congressional seat in California last night. Those narrow escapes are getting to be a habit for the GOP.
Let's turn to our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield. He's in New York -- Jeff.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Wolf, it was a close call for Republicans in that special election in California last night, but the GOP did hold the seat vacated by Duke Cunningham, now an involuntary guest of the federal government.
But that's just the latest chapter in what has been something of a pattern. The close calls have all broken for Republicans.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GREENFIELD (voice-over): Just last August, a very Republican congressional district in Ohio stayed in GOP hands by fewer than 4,000 votes when Jean Schmidt nosed out Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett.
But it fits a pattern that has defined the era of George W. Bush. The 2000 election began it, a presidency with more than 100 million votes decided by a disputed 537-vote margin in Florida, sealed by a one-vote margin in the Supreme Court.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: ... faithfully execute the office...
GREENFIELD: That gave Bush exactly one electoral vote more than the bare minimum needed to win. That same year, voters split the House of Representatives almost evenly, with Republicans holding a nine-vote margin. And the Senate split exactly evenly, 50/50.
RICHARD B. CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The vice president votes in the affirmative.
GREENFIELD: It took Vice President Cheney's tie-breaking vote to give Republicans control.
SEN. JIM JEFFORDS (I), VERMONT: I had serious, substantive reservations about...
GREENFIELD: A year later, the defection of Republican Senator Jim Jeffords turned the Senate over to Democrats. But, in the 2002 election, narrow Republican victories in Minnesota and Missouri returned the Senate to Republican control by a three-seat margin.
And what about 2004, when Bush was reelected with a majority of the popular vote? Look at the numbers. Bush won by three percentage points. That's a smaller margin than Harry Truman got in 1948, when the pundits and the early editions of one newspaper called him a loser, and slightly narrower than Woodrow Wilson got in 1916 over Charles Evans Hughes.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GREENFIELD: By the way, that year, Hughes went to bed thinking he had won. When a reporter called, a servant said, "The president has gone to bed." The reporter said: Yes? Well, when he wakes up, tell him he's not the president."
Now, is there any explanation for these close calls all going the GOP's way? Well, maybe it's random chance. Maybe it's that Republicans tend to have more money and a better get-out-the-vote operation. Or, if you're a real partisan, maybe God is a Republican -- Wolf.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: All right, Jeff, thank you very much.
Jeff Greenfield is part of the best political team on television. All of you know that -- CNN, America's campaign headquarters.
Coming up: a showdown for an embattled congressman, the target of a bribery probe. We are going to have details of a closed-door meeting between William Jefferson and House Democratic leaders.
And coming up in the next hour here in THE SITUATION ROOM, my interview with retiring Washington Cardinal Theodore McCarrick. He opposes same-sex marriage, but you might be surprised to hear his stance on civil unions.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: In today's "Political Radar": a showdown next hour over embattled Congressman William Jefferson. The Democrat from New Orleans meets behind closed doors here in Washington with House Democratic leaders. Jefferson is the target of a federal investigation into alleged bribery.
The FBI says $90,000, allegedly bribe money, was found in his freezer. Top Democrats want Jefferson to step down from the powerful Ways and Means Committee. And they're giving Jefferson the chance to defend himself. Jefferson has not been charged with anything. And he says there are two sides to the story.
His nickname was "The Hammer" for his tough style as the House majority leader. Texas Congressman Tom DeLay gave up that post, and, on Friday, will give up his seat entirely. He was indicted on corruption charges, which he denies. And he saw close associates caught up in an influence-peddling scheme. But DeLay is dropping the hammer one more time -- get this -- on fellow Republicans.
In a "USA Today" interview, he criticizes his colleagues for -- quote -- "panic, depression and woe-is-me-ism" and predicts they will lose control in November.
Tomorrow, by the way, we are going to hear from Congressman DeLay. He will speak with our senior political correspondent, Candy Crowley, that coming up tomorrow here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
With her 115th veto, first-term Governor Janet Napolitano has set a record for the most vetoes in Arizona. From immigration to abortion rights to budgets, the details of each and every veto are now online. Why so many?
Let's bring in our Internet reporter, Jacki Schechner. She's standing by with details -- Jacki.
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Well, it is not pretty in Arizona government these days. And it boils down to having a Democratic governor and a Republican legislature.
All of the veto letters are available online. By the way, she's already up to number 116. But let's hone in on the record-setting 115th. Here, you can see where she talks about strong employer sanctions in an immigration bill that she vetoed.
Now, they tell me at her office the numbers of vetoes are inflated, because the House often sends her -- or the House and Senate, rather, often send her bills they know that she's going to reject over and over again. For example, you can take a look at one letter where she's setting a particular bill for the fifth time in her administration.
A spokesperson for the House majority tells me today that she's an obstructionist who is standing in the way of what Arizonans want. That's their explanation of this. And the Senate president, also a Republican, says, it's her way or no way -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Jacki, thanks very much.
And, in contrast to Janet Napolitano, President Bush, in his nearly six years in office, has not done one veto yet, although he's threatening one if it goes forward on that appropriations bill.
Up next: Are you driving the most popular car among thieves? We are going to show you what the most stolen vehicle in the United States is -- get this -- for the fourth year in a row.
And coming up in our 5:00 p.m. Eastern hour, Congressman Peter King joins us live here in THE SITUATION ROOM. I will ask the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee about the battle over the cut in grants to New York City.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Let's check back with Zain at the CNN Global Headquarters for a closer look at some other stories making news -- Zain.
VERJEE: Hi, Wolf.
As you saw just two hours ago here on CNN, former Idaho Governor Dirk Kempthorne, rather, has been sworn in as President Bush's new interior secretary. He took his oath of office in a ceremony in the White House Rose Garden. Kempthorne succeeds former Interior Chief Gale Norton in overseeing the nation's national parks and other public lands.
Wildlife officials in Florida say the bald eagle is no longer in danger of extinction. State fish and wildlife commissioners today voted unanimously to downgrade the bald eagle's threatened status. They say they did so because the bird's population has grown in recent decades. The move won't take effect for at least a year to give the state -- to establish a management program.
And if you're a car thief, what would your favorite car be to steal? Well, the Insurance Institute For Highway Safety says, across the board, it's the Cadillac Escalade for the fourth straight year. Not only is it a big, bold, shiny luxury SUV with a rear-seat DVD. It's also famous for being the ride of everyone from NFL stars to Tony Soprano. The least stolen car is the Ford Taurus.
Wolf, which one would you steal?
BLITZER: I wouldn't steal either one of those cars.
(LAUGHTER)
VERJEE: You don't steal.
BLITZER: I don't steal, first of all.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: But I'm not big on either the Taurus or the Escalade.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: Zain, thanks very much.
Still to come: How long should it take to make America secure? Jack Cafferty has your e-mail in our question of the hour.
And coming up in the next hour: There are now new allegations the CIA was illegally sending terror suspects to secret prisons in Europe. Brian Todd will have the details of a controversial new report.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Jack has got "The Cafferty File" in New York -- Jack.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's not over yet, believe it or not. And I should have just blown you off, but, because of my intense personal loyalty to you, decided to go ahead and appear...
CAFFERTY: It's been almost five years since 9/11. The chairman of the 9/11 Commission told a House panel, the U.S. remains dangerously behind on key security improvements. They said there's been little progress since they issued their last report card. That was in December.
The question we asked is: How long should it take to make America secure?
Kevin writes from Florida: "If we would have used the same troop levels and budget we have wasted on Iraq on our domestic security, this country would be 1000 percent more safe."
Bruce in Maryland: "America can be made secure in about seven months. That's when the next Congress takes office. However, it means voters in all states need to forget the gay-rights issue and vote on what affects them materially, jobs outsourcing, gas and food prices, deficit spending, tax cuts for the wealthy, illegal surveillance, and the war in Iraq."
T. in Nebraska: "It will take two-and-a-half years for the country to become secure. Bush will be out of the White House, and the whole world will be a better place."
Mike in East Grand Forks, Minnesota: "Never. Between the World Wars, France built their impregnable Maginot Line. The Nazis simply swung through Belgium, and France fell within weeks."
Yes, but it was France.
"Gee, no lesson to be learned there, right, except maybe no defense will stop everything forever."
George writes from Florida: "There's no way to know when we will be completely safe. Only the enemy knows that."
And Jay writes in North Dakota: "Jack, the answer should be quite simple, even for you."
(LAUGHTER)
CAFFERTY: "We need to counter the Bush administration by electing a Democratic House and Senate in the fall elections. A real pushback by the party holding the purse can work wonders."
What did he mean "even for you," Wolf, do you think?
BLITZER: I don't know what he meant, but he was just trying to be cute.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: Jack, thanks very much.
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