Return to Transcripts main page
The Situation Room
North Korea Test-Fires at Least Three Missiles; Discovery Space Shuttle in Orbit; White House Responds to Missile Test
Aired July 04, 2006 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: To our viewers, you're in a special edition of THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time.
Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now, breaking news. North Korea thumbs its nose at the world, launching a series of missiles. One of them, the big one, the long-range Taeopodong-2. It apparently failed in midair.
The Bush administration calls these provocative acts that must be answered. But the North Koreans have said that if the United States strikes, they'll start a nuclear war.
We'll have response from the White House, Japan, and the world community.
And in a dazzling display for the Fourth of July, the shuttle Discovery blasts off for the first time on America's birthday.
I'm John King. Wolf Blitzer is off today.
To our viewers in the United States and around the world, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Breaking news this Independence Day in the United States. North Korea fires at least three missiles clearly in a provocation designed to get the attention of the Bush White House and its neighbors across Asia.
Tracking this story for us, our national security correspondent, David Ensor.
David, what's the latest?
DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, as you mentioned, one of those missiles is believed by U.S. officials, officials at the State Department and elsewhere around the government, to be the Taepodong-2 missile that the world has been watching for weeks now. That missile failed in less than a minute after its launch. So that was duly noted with some satisfaction by the American intelligence analysts and military people who are watching very, very closely tonight what's going on in North Korea.
Now, that launch followed at least two others of shorter-range Scud-C missiles that were launched in the direction of Japan, according to State Department officials and Japanese officials, who say that they fell in the Sea of Japan, short of land. There -- there is also reports, and we have more than one American source saying that a fourth missile also was launched, again, a short-range missile, by North Korea.
So, a series of missile launches by North Korea just in the last few hours. And clearly, if North Korea wants the world's attention, it has it -- John.
KING: Let's break this down a little bit, David. Assuming that these initial reports are true and the test of the Taepodong-2, North Korea's new longer-range missile, failed, from a security perspective what is the meaning of that?
ENSOR: Well, it's a relief to those who have to defend the country, to intelligence and military officials who were watching this to see whether they needed to react in any way. Obviously, they're pleased. And presumably, it's a relief to the policymakers as well to see that North Korea doesn't appear to have the kind of technological capability that it apparently wanted to exhibit to the world.
That said, you have a dictator who is firing off missiles. They're going in all sorts of directions. It doesn't appear that North Korea has the kind of technology to put a guidance system on these missiles and make it reliably hit a target.
You heard CNN's Barbara Starr reporting earlier that military officials say one of the short-range missiles may have even gotten pretty close to Russian territorial waters. So there's going to be all kinds of implications. And you can assume there's going to be some very high-level diplomacy in the coming hours -- John.
KING: I want to move on to that point quickly, David. There's a technical analysis, obviously, of, where did the missiles go, where were they launched, if they did fail, why did they fail? There's also a political intelligence analysis, if you will, what is Kim Jong-il up to?
And your sources are saying?
ENSOR: Saying that he wants the world's attention, quite clearly. That their analysis is that it annoys him, that Iran, with -- with its nuclear program, is getting most of the attention of the West. He wants to make a deal, but he wants to make it in a crisis atmosphere where he can rattle his saber. And that is what he's doing.
KING: That's perhaps what he does best.
David Ensor, our national security correspondent.
David, thank you. And we will check back in with you.
Now for more on the military ramifications and the security consequences, let's bring in our Pentagon correspondent, Barbara Starr -- Barbara.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: John, we've spoken to military officials again within the last few minutes. Additional details, additional analysis coming in.
They now say, yes, they can confirm that was a launch of a Taepodong-2 by North Korea. They say that their technical assessment now is this missile failed so quickly after launch, it failed somewhere between 30 seconds and 60 seconds in the launch cycle, failing less than a minute after launch, which was one of the reasons, of course, the U.S. military didn't have to do anything about it.
But perhaps one of the most fascinating details we're learning now that will unfold over the next many hours, I suspect, is that the U.S. military, the U.S. intelligence community saw all three launches today, in the words of officials, as they happened. U.S. intelligence and military satellites, of course, for weeks now have been keeping very close watch on North Korea, on the Korean Peninsula. And there are satellites operated by the military that can instantly pick up any sign of an exhaust plume from a missile launch.
So it's becoming apparent very quickly here that the U.S. had eyes on North Korea and, in the words of military officials, saw all three launches as they happened.
Now, that triggered the normal launch events reporting procedures in the U.S. military. They very quickly, we are told, went through their standard procedures, convening phone calls, getting all the essential national security elements together, watching this.
If it had gone longer, if within that minute, John, whatever the next steps might have been, could have involved action by the U.S. military, as we've been saying. But as they watched it, they learned very quickly that they really wouldn't have to do much about it because all three missiles, two of them falling into the Sea of Japan, the Taepodong failing within a minute. But officials now saying that that Taepodong also landed harmlessly in the Sea of Japan.
They do not know if the North Koreans took any action once they saw it fail to destroy it themselves. That's something they're still trying to assess, whether there was a launch destruct order given by the North Koreans.
But it went into the Sea of Japan and failed very, very quickly. So even as the U.S. was monitoring the situation as it unfolded, the U.S. military not really having to do much about it other than watch it -- John.
KING: And Barbara, help our viewers understand. Obviously, we anticipate the first reaction from the Bush administration will come in the diplomatic arena, but what are the U.S. military capabilities in the region? Obviously, longstanding deployments in Japan and in South Korea, but my understanding is some additional resources have been moved to the region to watch this anticipated test.
Is that true? STARR: Absolutely, John. Over the last many weeks as this mounted, as it became increasingly apparent the North Koreans might launch, the U.S. military, the U.S. intelligence community clearly putting more (INAUDIBLE) into the region. Spy planes, reconnaissance planes, changing the paths of satellites if they needed to, to have them keep watch over the area more.
The U.S. Navy has continued with its long-scheduled exercises out in the western Pacific. And the U.S. Navy regularly now keeps a couple of ships out in the western Pacific that have highly specialized radars that can scan and detect missile launches and keep -- and keep track.
So it's something over the last couple of years they have generally stepped up U.S. capabilities. They've also stepped them up in particular in the last couple of weeks.
And as we have continued to report, the missile defense capability in Alaska, in California, was fully alerted, activated, ready to go if President Bush had -- had decided he needed to give the order to try and shoot down any of those North Korean missiles. At the end of the day, of course, he didn't have to. The North Koreans managed to apparently fail all on their own -- John.
KING: Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr.
Thank you, Barbara. You keep checking in with your sources and we'll keep checking back with you.
Thank you very much, Barbara.
We're joined on the phone now for more perspective by David Kay. He's the former U.N. weapons inspector, the chief weapons inspector in Iraq. Someone who is quite familiar with the capabilities and the geopolitics, if you will, of North Korea.
David Kay, Kim Jong-il firing at least three missiles on this Independence Day in the United States, on a day when the United States also was returning the space shuttle program to space.
What is Kim Jong-il's calculation?
DAVID KAY, FMR. CHIEF U.N. WEAPONS INSPECTOR: Well, I think it fits with the standard explanation of as much as we know about North Korea. And we all ought to be honest, there's very little that we know about the internal dynamics of that regime, but that here is an individual who desperately wants attention.
He needs a deal with the United States, he believes, both for security and economic reasons. And essentially, the Bush administration has stiff-armed him, not being willing to come forward with direct negotiations outside of the group of six discussions.
So I think it's a desperate play. It obviously didn't work. And I think the most interesting sidebar story is going to be, what happens in Pyongyang? Who vouched for the reliability of this missile, and what are the consequences now that it failed?
KING: Well, David, what is your calculation? I think many would reflexively say, if the test of this new long-range missile failed, that it weakens Pyongyang's hand. But this is, as you said, a secretive, reclusive regime. We don't know much about its internal calculations.
Could it cause some desperate reaction, if you will?
KAY: Well, John, I worry as much about weakening Pyongyang's hand as strengthening because we know so little about it. The one thing we do know -- or think we know -- it is has five to six nuclear warheads and is a secretive regime. So, a weakened Pyongyang might not necessarily be more in the interest of stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula and that part of east Asia.
I don't think we know enough to know how this will play out. I think that probably is the focus of what limited intelligence gathering we have right now.
KING: And in your view, you use the term "stiff-armed" by the Bush administration. Certainly there are others who have, without using that term, have said they wish the administration was more generous in what it was willing to put on the table, the carrots, if you will. One would assume reflexively that if you're the president of the United States, the last thing you're going to do after -- on your country's birthday, a country with whom you've been in a confrontation fires three or four missiles into the air, one would assume the last thing the president would be inclined to do is to put more carrots on the table.
KAY: I think that's absolutely true, although I must say, the carrot that they really want -- North Korea really wants a relationship with the United States. I think what most people have missed -- and it's primarily in many ways because we've spoken the opposite way of asking the Chinese to bring more pressure on the North Koreans.
My read of North Korea and my discussions when I've been in Asia recently, is that the North Koreans are deeply suspicious of the Chinese. They realize how much economic power they have over them. And they would like a relationship with us as much to counter the Chinese.
I think it likely this was a stupid, ill-advised ploy on their part, but it also shows how little they understand the U.S. I think any analyst would have said, as you said, on the Fourth of July you're going to fly rockets and expect -- a day of not only independence, but the launch of the Discovery and expect the U.S. to respond with generosity and open arms towards you?
But that also tells us a great deal about North Korea. We don't understand them, and they clearly misunderstand us.
KING: David Kay, former chief weapons inspector.
David, thank you for sharing your perspective. We may check back in with you as more information comes in.
Again, David, thank you very much.
KAY: Certainly.
KING: And, of course, this is being watched not only here in the United States, but very closely, too, in Japan, where CNN's Atika Shubert is standing by -- Atika.
ATIKA SHUBERT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Some big concerns here in Japan, just waking up to the news that at least three missiles have landed just -- just short of the northern island of Hokkaido, into the Sea of Japan. Japan's chief cabinet secretary, Shinzo Abe, held a quick press conference earlier this morning, where he confirmed to reporters that those three missiles had been launched, also saying it was of grave concern to Japan and that Japan would launch a strong protest to North Korea over the launch.
He made no mention, however, of any U.N. Security Council meeting, also no mention of economic sanctions, which Japan has threatened to do if North Korea launched these missiles. But definitely here in Japan, a lot of anxiety over these tests -- John.
KING: Atika, explain what could happen from Japan's perspective in the sense that the United States, of course, has very little direct dealings with North Korea, only at the negotiating table. And those negotiations have not gone off for some time.
Japan is the source of food for a starving nation. What is the political calculation? In punishing Kim Jong-il, you would, in fact, be punishing the North Korean people.
SHUBERT: Well, as you say, the diplomatic relations between Japan and North Korea are not very good. They're very strained at the moment.
Japan has said that if -- if North Korea launched these missiles, they would impose economic sanctions. And that could have quite a deep impact on the North Korean economy.
It is very isolated. It depends very heavily on what little trade it has with Japan, with some of North Korean residents that live here in Japan who try and send cash and money back home. So it's -- but it's unclear exactly how much of an impact economic sanctions would have simply because we don't know that much about the North Korean economy and how it works.
Now, of course, Japan and the United States are also looking towards China and South Korea. They're the countries with the most leverage on North Korea, the ones that have the best diplomatic relations. We're waiting for word from those governments, reaction what they think about these tests.
KING: To get more reaction we will check back in.
Our Atika Shubert in Tokyo. Atika, thank you very much.
And to our viewers here in the United States and around the world, please stay with us. We'll have more on this breaking news ahead. North Korea launching at least three missiles on this Independence Day here in the United States. Still awaiting official reaction from the Bush White House.
Also, coverage of the July 4th shuttle launch. The space shuttle Discovery now in orbit. More on that, too.
Please stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm John King, in Washington.
Breaking news this afternoon. North Korea fires at least three missiles on this Independence Day here in the United States, provoking a national security confrontation with the Bush White House and with its neighbors in Asia as well. As we continue to track this story, helping us with our coverage, our senior U.N. correspondent, Richard Roth, in New York, our chief national security correspondent, David Ensor, here in Washington.
Let's begin with David with the latest.
ENSOR: Well, John, the latest is that, after firing two Scud-C Nodong-type short-range missiles in the direction of the Sea of Japan, which fell into the sea, and possibly another -- but that is disputed -- North Korea went ahead and launched, according to U.S. officials, State Department, military and others, launched the Nodong-2 missile that the world has been watching for weeks now to see whether it would be launched or not.
It is a missile that some analysts believe might be capable of reaching U.S. territory. But in less than a minute, the missile fired out and fell down out of the sky.
So, that -- that long-range missile that North Korea launched that so many people had worried about fizzled out. It was failure.
But still, you have North Korea launching at least three missiles today, falling in various places, and causing a great deal of concern here in Washington and around the world -- John.
KING: And David, as the technical analysis goes forward over the next days and weeks, update our viewers on what is -- what is known to the United States about the nuclear capabilities of North Korea. How many weapons does the CIA believe it has? And do we believe -- and I think the answer here is not likely -- that they can deliver a weapon on a missile, a nuclear weapon?
ENSOR: The answer to that last question is the U.S. does not believe they have the capability to build a nuclear weapon that can sit atop a missile and make it safely anywhere, basically. They don't believe that North Korea has the capability to miniaturize nuclear weapons technology to that level, or to harden it to the point where it would survive a launch.
So there's not much concern about that right now, although every time North Korea tries to advance itself -- and a missile test is an effort to do that -- it does cause grave concern. Of course, there's some relief today that this long-range missile fizzled out as quickly as it did. But the fact that North Korea is once again testing long- range missiles after having promised to stop doing so is of serious concern.
KING: And I assume as to the question as to why it fizzled out, it's going to take some time to get that information?
ENSOR: Well, that's right. And John Pike (ph) asked that very interesting question. And I hope we're going to get an answer in the coming hours.
Was this missile pointed in a direction that would indicate it was designed to test launching a satellite perhaps in the future, or was it pointed towards the United States and going over the top of Japan if it had been able to complete its journey?
Something we need to find out.
KING: A question to answer in the hours ahead.
David Ensor tracking this for us in Washington.
Thank you very much, David.
And as David tracks the intelligence and deals with the military assessment of all this, of course it become immediately a diplomatic confrontation not only for the White House, but for the United Nations as well.
Our senior U.N. correspondent Richard Roth standing by in New York -- Richard.
RICHARD ROTH, CNN SR. U.N. CORRESPONDENT: John, I can guarantee you fireworks tonight at the United Nations. But they are July 4th fireworks. The U.N. opening its doors to a selected few to watch the fireworks on New York's East River.
Tomorrow morning in New York, there will be discussions on North Korea. That we have been guaranteed. We don't know yet where they may lead.
One Chinese official we spoke to in New York tonight said, well, we -- we will maintain a cautious approach to see what exactly is going on. I suppose if they really wanted to draw the attention of the world, the whole world, North Korea did indeed get it.
China has been North Korea's staunchest ally in the deliberations whenever this issue has come up, really blocking any harsher or firmer rhetoric that the U.N. Security Council might agree on.
Ambassador John Bolton of the U.S. working the phones, talking to other ambassadors. One country said that they anticipate the U.S. and Japan, a member of the Security Council, to lead the way. Whether it will be a statement or something firmer is unknown, John. Kofi Annan and almost the entire diplomatic community had been warning North Korea against such a missile launch -- John.
KING: And Richard, warning against the missile launch. Now there has been at least three launches, including this longer-range missile. Whether it failed or not, certainly North Korea thumbing its nose as its neighbors and the United States.
How, based on your experience, does that change the dynamics if Japan or the United States come to the Security Council and say, we want sanctions? And let's be real about this, what type of sanctions can the U.N. put on a country that has such limited dealings with the world?
ROTH: That's true. There -- it certainly ramps up the dynamic. It gives the U.S. and Ambassador Bolton a much wider hand to be tough, to say this is what we need, and it may indeed even tip China over towards the other side.
They like to talk peace, obviously, at the U.N. It's very diplomatic, button-down world. But this, for many members of the Security Council, may be the evidence they have to go forward.
At the U.N. and various nongovernmental organizations they say the people of North Korea are starving, and here they are launching missiles at the same time. They just have a very tough hand to play if they're looking for sympathy at the U.N. tomorrow for North Korea.
KING: Richard Roth for us in New York.
Richard, thank you very much. We'll check back in, and we'll continue to follow this breaking news story on Independence Day here in the United States.
North Korea launching at least three, perhaps four, missiles, provoking at least a diplomatic confrontation. We're tracking reaction from the White House and around the world.
Back to that story in just a few minutes.
But another closely-watched launch today, space shuttle Discovery lifting off safely despite ongoing concern over safety of some foam insulation.
CNN's John Zarrella is live for us at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida with the latest -- John.
JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, John.
Certainly a launch of a different sorts here at the Kennedy Space Center today at 2:38 p.m. After a couple of days of weather delays, fighting a bugaboo yesterday with the foam insulation and the five- inch by one-eighth inch deep crack that they found, NASA worked through that problem, worked through a little bit of weather issue today. And the shuttle Discovery lifted off through those beautiful clear blue skies, on its way to rendezvous with the International Space Station.
Following the launch, one little issue that has cropped up, at least little at this point. Looking at some of the isolation shots of the external tank on the ascent into orbit, there were some what appears to be visual evidence that some tiny pieces of foam may, in fact, have fallen off again from the external tank.
NASA officials are again looking very closely at that, looking at other isolation cameras. You can barely make out there on those shot some of the tiny pieces flaking away. But during the post-launch news conference, those NASA officials said that at this point it does not look like it was a serious issue, and that foam falling off in that general area at the point in time when it did fall off is actually something that they expected.
So, again, we're going to be watching later tonight for any more information on this latest foam issue. If it is an issue.
Other than that, John, it was smooth sailing for Discovery, on its way now to a rendezvous with the International Space Station -- John.
KING: And John, walk us through how that works. They say so far so good based on everything they've seen and everything they think, but there are -- I looked at some research, 100 cameras and radars pointing at the shuttle when it takes off. And just after the booster separated, the astronauts themselves take pictures from space that are beamed back down.
How long does this review take?
ZARRELLA: That's exactly right. And those cameras, the astronauts -- two of them actually get up and they go to the window, and they watch the external tank fall away as it falls into the Indian Ocean at about 7, 8 minutes into the launch. And it will -- the first blush look at these images will take place tonight, when they're downlinked back into Houston and back here to the Kennedy Space Center. And then over the next day or two before they can actually analyze, the engineers, those pictures to see if, in fact, these pieces of foam insulation were harmful or not -- John.
KING: John Zarrella at the Kennedy Space Center.
John, we'll check back in with you as well.
So far so good, though, for the Discovery mission.
Thank you very much, John.
More on our breaking news story. North Korea launching at three missiles on this Independence Day here in the United States. Still awaiting official reaction from the Bush White House, the diplomatic fallout in Asia and around the world as well. We'll continue to track it.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm John King in Washington.
Dramatic breaking news this Independence Day, July 4th, in the United States. North Korea launching at least three missiles, provoking a diplomatic confrontation with the Bush White House, with its neighbors in Asia as well.
This after the United States had warned North Korea not to test a long-range missile sitting on a platform for some time in North Korea. That long-range missile, the Taepodong-2, among those fired today.
The first official reaction now coming in from the Bush White House. That's where we find our White House correspondent, Ed Henry -- Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good evening, John.
That's right, from a senior administration official we now have official confirmation from the White House that, in fact, there were three launches out of North Korea. This official saying that in terms of questions about a fourth missile, the White House has nothing on that. They were unaware of a fourth missile.
They're confirming three missiles. The first one about 2:33 Eastern Time, the second one, 3:04 Eastern Time. Both of those missiles short or medium-range missiles, according to this senior administration official.
Just about 4:01 Eastern Time, the third missile, the TP -- the Taepodong-2 missile, a long-term missile, was launched about 4:01 Eastern Time. We're told by this senior official it was aborted within about 42 seconds. This third missile, as we've been reporting, did, in fact, fail, according to the White House.
Now, the president was informed, we're finally hearing, shortly thereafter at some point as these missiles were being launched. We're told that there were senior officials here at the White House, in the Situation Room, getting these reports out of North Korea. That information was obviously being fed directly to the president.
We're also told the president has now spoken to Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Rice, as well as the national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, to assess the situation, obviously. But the president, we're told, is moving ahead tonight with watching the fireworks here on the National Mall from the White House, also moving ahead with this small birthday bash we've been told about.
His birthday, 60th birthday, is on Thursday, of course. So even though this is obviously an urgent situation, the White House moving ahead somewhat as if business as usual.
Now, some other news, Chris Hill from the State Department, senior State Department official, now headed to the region tomorrow. Headed to Korea to deal with the situation.
Stephen Hadley, the national security adviser, here tomorrow, will be meeting with his South Korean counterpart here in D.C. The South Korean counterpart happens to be in Washington.
The basic line from the senior administration official is, "North Korea once again has been isolated. Various nations asked them not to do this, but they moved ahead anyway."
Basically, the White House saying they will continue to monitor the situation, they will continue to consult with others from the six- party talks.
Also, interesting to note the White House saying they do not believe that the U.N. Security Council will meet tonight.
And the White House also careful to try to cast this as not a U.S.-versus-North Korea situation, saying this is between North Korea and the five others in the six-party talks.
When asked whether the White House believes that Kim Jong-Il did this on the Fourth of July to provoke the United States even more, since it's Independence Day, this official saying, You'll have to ask the Dear Leader, a derisive reference, of course, to Kim Jong-Il.
Finally, also, this official saying, quote, "There's no immediate threat to the United States, but this is a provocation."
So the White House trying to walk a fine line here, where they're trying to reassure Americans who are just getting these urgent reports. The White House does not believe there's a, quote, "immediate" threat to the United States, but they are making this clear, obviously, this is a provocation from North Korea. But the White House does not want to make this the United States against North Korea. They want to make this North Korea against the other five in those six-party talks to try to build an international coalition here, John.
KING: That has been, Ed, as you well know, the consistent administration line. It refuses to get into a one-on-one, if you will, debate with North Korea and the Dear Leader, as the senior official put it.
The people watching might not know the name Chris Hill. He, of course, has been the U.S. negotiator in those six-party talks. But what we're seeing here is one of the dances of diplomacy, if you will. I want you to shed some insight on it.
The North Korean leader fires three missiles. He wants the attention of the president of the United States. He wants the president of the United States, one would assume, to pick up the phone and call the prime minister of Japan, to call the president of China. Instead, the president is sending a State Department official to the region, which takes some time, to have consultations, with take some time.
So if North Korea wanted to turn the volume up to 10, the Bush administration is trying to put it, I would guess, at about two or three?
HENRY: Exactly. And clearly, you're right. By sending Chris Hill, a senior State Department official, but still, as senior as he is, still an official, obviously not the president himself, not the secretary of state. Clearly, the White House trying to send a signal. They're not going to be drawn into a direct Kim Jong-Il versus President Bush. They're very clearly saying, This is about North Korea against the entire international community, this senior administration official also pointing out that others in the region, China, South Korea, others, had reached out, had urged North Korea, Do not go forward with these tests. And they defied those warnings anyway. They defied those diplomatic efforts.
So the White House clearly trying to show the diplomatic door is still open, despite this provocation, in the words of the senior official, but also not wanting to be drawn in at the presidential level, trying to make this, and really further isolate Kim Jong-Il, John.
KING: And Ed, I'm betting I know the answer, from my days there, but any indication from this senior official at all if the United States is willing to respond to this down the road with more incentive, more carrots, if you will, or if the administration's position is, We have a proposal on the table at the six-party talks, we're not budging, North Korea should come back?
HENRY: Very clearly, this senior official saying that they are not budging, basically, that they are moving -- that they want to move forward anyway with the six-party talks, and that, really, the ball is still, as it has been for months, for years, really, the ball is in North Korea's court, now more than ever, and that it's for them to come back to the six-party talks.
Also, I asked this senior official directly, What about a military option from the United States? Immediately, this senior official saying that, again, this is not about the U.S. reacting directly. This is about the others in the six-party talks dealing with this diplomatically, trying to build this international coalition, to say, Look, North Korea, it's time for you to come to the table, stop the provocation.
So not wanting to be drawn in at any level as U.S. versus North Korea, that this is the world against North Korea, John.
KING: Ed Henry for us on a suddenly busy day at the White House. Ed, we'll check back with you a bit later. Thank you very much.
And so how does all this look from the sky? What does the United States see with its spy satellites and other technology?
Our Kyra Phillips has some of the best sources in the business at the Northern Command and at NORAD. She joins us now on the phone.
Hey, Kyra.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR (on phone): Hey, John.
And they haven't stopped working. My sources now within U.S. Northern Command and NORAD tell me a fourth missile has been launched, not a long-range missile, not the missile that they've been concerned about, the Taepodong missile, that third missile that was launched from the area that they had been watching from, the joint operations center there at U.S. Northern Command and NORAD.
But this was a short-range missile, not to be concerned -- or not to be confused, obviously, with that third long-range missile that was a big concern. But the fourth missile, a short-range missile, was launched within the past 15 minute or so, I'm being told from my sources.
So just to back up a little bit, John, we were able to tell our viewers about that first missile, short-range missile, that was launched just prior to the shuttle. Was North Korea trying to send a message? Interesting. The sources within NORAD and U.S. Northern Command tell me, Look, it was an act of a lunatic, that's how we feel about this. Was it a threat to the United States, as soon as we saw that first one? No, it was not a threat to the United States.
Then the second one happened, and then the third, which was that long-range missile, dying out after it was launched, within 50 seconds. Now, a fourth short-range missile has been launched.
Very interesting time, obviously, for those within U.S. Northern Command and NORAD, not the kind of Fourth of July that they wanted to be partaking in. But they said that they knew that something was going to happen. They've been monitoring North Korea, John, for the past couple of weeks very intensely, that I'm told. I know that these individuals have not been taking vacation, they have not been taking time away from the job. They've been there paying close attention to North Korea.
So (INAUDIBLE) did today surprise them? Does this fourth missile surprise them? No, but they're on it. And they do say they're prepared to respond if they feel it's necessary, that their systems are on alert, and if, indeed, they have to react, that they will.
But at this point, they don't see it a threat. They're just monitoring what exactly North Korea is doing minute by minute right now.
KING: And Kyra, did they say anything you found interesting about what they saw in the missile trajectory, anything about the space of timing between the launches? Did they make anything of that yet? Or are they still gathering and analyzing?
PHILLIPS: Definitely they thought it was interesting that the first three happened pretty consecutively. And then there were some reports coming out, as you were reporting, I think it was Japanese television, you'll have to correct me if that's not right.
And of course, I immediately called back and said, What's the deal with this? No, absolutely not. They told me that is not -- there has not been a fourth. Now they're saying, a little bit of a time span here, they can confirm within the last 15 minutes or so that there was another missile that was launched.
Here's what's interesting, John. You know, after they told me, Look, we don't see this as a threat to the United States at this point, but we are ready to react if we need to, I said, OK, so what's next? What should we be paying attention to?
First thing, as these individuals watch the Japanese, watch the Japanese reaction. And then, of course, within the past hour, when I was talking with my sources, they said, We're on the phone with China, Russia, and Japan. All three of those countries could have been threatened by this. All three of those countries are extremely concerned. But particularly, watch the Japanese reaction.
KING: Kyra Phillips for us, tracking her sources. Kyra, thank you for your contributions. We will check back in again.
Kyra just mentioned Russia, China, and Japan, so another country that is involved, not only in the six-party talks, but, of course, directly involved, and perhaps with the most at stake in any confrontation with North Korea, is South Korea.
On the phone now, CNN correspondent Sohn Jie-Ae, and she's in Seoul.
SOHN JIE-AE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (on phone): Yes, John.
In South Korea, things are actually strangely quiet. And there's been typical of South Korea. South Korea has been very cautious. They are watching the situation. South Korea has not made any official confirmation as to whether North Korea fired the missiles, or if what type of missiles North Korea fired.
But they're watching the situation very carefully. They are expected to hold a National Security Council meeting sometime this morning. And it was not totally unexpected. South Korea's foreign minister, Pan Zi-mun (ph), was on a trip to Asia and Africa, which he cut short and came back yesterday.
So there were moves already that South Korea was watching this very closely, they -- although they do -- have not made an official position yet, when they do make it, it is expected to be mildly condemning North Korea. And also, South Korea is expected to be very, very cautious and very, very worried about the fact that North Korea's firing missiles could raise tensions here in this region, and this could adversely affect South Korea, John.
KING: I -- you say no official reaction from the government as yet, but I assume this is being widely covered in the media in South Korea. What is your sense of the mood on the street, if you will? SOHN: Well, the South Koreans, it is the leading South Korean news program, and it will be topping South Korean newspapers, although it has happened a little too early to (INAUDIBLE) South Korean morning papers. But South Korea has been expecting this for some time. And it has not been the first time that North Korea has done it before. And although the last time it did fire, it did raise tensions, the South Korea was able to work diplomatically out of this situation.
South Koreans are hoping that this will be the same, although, as someone mentioned before, the key player in this situation as to whether South Korea and North Korea will be able to work diplomatic out of the situation will be Japan. So South Korea will be looking at Japan very closely. It will trying to -- it will try to do whatever it can to ease tensions, to calm tensions in this region and hope for the best, John.
KING: And South Korea is one of the places where we try to monitor one of the most secretive regimes in the world. Any indications of what the North Korean government is saying through the North Korean news agency?
SOHN: Not yet, we haven't seen anything from North Korea yet, although we do expect North Korea to say something soon. It is expected that North Korea, as it did before, claimed that it was something that North Korea had every right to do, that it was in its national interest. They might also claim that it was a satellite launch.
But whatever it claims, it will say that it was in every right to do whatever it did. And so we will be monitoring very closely what the North Korean official news agencies will be saying, John.
KING: And we will check back in when that happens. Sohn Jie-Ae, our correspondent in Seoul, one of our best, and another example of CNN's global reach. Sohn Jie-Ae, thank you very much.
We want to check in now with our Jack Cafferty, who's been watching all this from New York.
Hi, Jack.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: How you doing, John?
The question we asked is, How should the international community respond to North Korea? Here's some of what you've written us.
Terry in Fayetteville, North Carolina, "China knows how to deal with North Korea, and all it takes is a boycott of Chinese goods to give them the will to do it. Some improvement in the U.S. trade deficit would be a pleasant side effect."
Gari in Miami, "Diplomacy's the way to go. North Korea was contained with Clinton, based on diplomacy, a tactic the U.S. seems to have failed in since this current administration has been dealing with North Korea. Psychologically speaking, you must negotiate, talk, and compromise in order to get anywhere. Things will continue to escalate if Bush continues to manage North Korea the way he has been. And then we'll really have to worry."
Steve in San Jose, California, "Simple question. They made a provocative military motion, we should react with one of our own. Blow up the launch tower. Give them 24 hours' advance notice so they can clear out innocent people, and then blow it up. No launch tower, no launch."
Salvador in New Orleans, "The only thing that would work is to make it clear, just like the Israelis have with the Palestinian prime minister, that Kim Jong Il is himself a target now. This is a regime based on a personality cult, and we have to address that personality. Nothing else will work. The European community needs to get on board with the U.S.A. to convey this message to Pyongyang."
Chris in Santa Rosa, California, "The general Western analysis of Kim is that he's a mentally challenged despot who simply seeks respect and security. His goal is not war, we hope. In that light, I feel the immediate U.S. response to the current situation should be no external response whatsoever. Our lack of annoyance at his provocation bolsters our political position."
And finally, C. writes this, "Tell that little sick, twisted, spoiled brat to leave the nukes alone before his butt gets evaporated. So simple," John.
KING: Diplomats all. Jack Cafferty in New York. Jack, thank you very much.
And stay with us. We'll continue to cover this dramatic breaking story, missile firings by North Korea on this Independence Day here in the United States.
Stay right here. When we come back, the CNN security council, Richard Falkenrath and John McLaughlin, two men who have been at the table in government when it faces such high stakes diplomatic and military confrontations.
Stay right here.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: I'm John King in Washington. Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM.
Dramatic breaking news on this Independence Day, North Korea firing at least three missiles, provoking a diplomatic confrontation, at a minimum, with the United States and its neighbors in Asia.
We are joined here in THE SITUATION ROOM by two of our CNN security analysts, Richard Falkenrath, formerly of the National Security Council in the Bush White House, former deputy director of the CIA Tom McLaughlin.
Richard, let me start with you. I was struck, talking to our correspondent Sohn Jie-Ae, the country closest to North Korea is South Korea, and yet no official reaction as yet. One would assume Seoul has the most at stake.
RICHARD FALKENRATH, SECURITY ANALYST: That's right. This is classic South Korean behavior. They really want no confrontation, no destabilization on their peninsula because if there is military action, if there's a collapse of the North Korean regime, who bears the cost of that? Who bears the consequences? It's them.
And they, I think, really have decided they don't want anything to change. They just want a status quo. They don't want to be responsible for the north. This is the worst possible news for them. And they're terrified of what the United States and Japan and the others might do.
KING: John McLaughlin, I assume, from an intelligence perspective, this is, while it's a dramatic event, you might say a provocative event, it's in some ways is not a bonanza in terms of gathering information?
JOHN MCLAUGHLIN, FORMER DEPUTY CIA DIRECTOR: Oh, absolutely. With all the warning that we had of this potential firing, you can bet every intelligence system in the United States inventory was trained on this. Back in 1998, when they fired the Taepodong-1 missile, we learned a tremendous amount about North Korean missiles. And while this one is a failure, one of the things I would point out is that they succeeded in some respects with a comparable missile in 1998.
One of the hardest things you can do when you're launching multistage missiles is get the two stages to separate at altitude, and then get the second stage to actually ignite and keep going downrange. They succeeded in doing that in 1998. So we shouldn't forget that they have some sophisticated technology here.
What North Koreans tend to do when they build missiles is bolt old systems together, and then they fire them. They don't test them the way we do. We would test every stage, we would polish, we would go through all kinds of rehearsals. They bolt them together and let them rip.
And in all likelihood, in fact, I'm quite certain, in the case of this -- particularly this Taepodong-2 missile, at least one of these stages had never been tested before.
SO it doesn't surprise me at all that it did not get very far.
KING: Gentlemen, I want to ask you to stand by. Want to bring into our conversation a man who's thought to be the closest known civilian to the North Korean government. Han Park is a professor at the University of Georgia. He joins us now on the telephone from Seoul.
Han Park, what do you make of this? And we were just discussing here, the government of South Korea has said nothing yet. What does that mean to you?
HAN PARK, POLITICAL SCIENTIST, UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA (on phone): I think the United States is responding a little too prematurely, rather harshly, because the missiles, the three, were short range, one aborted long range. But the missiles were not a threat to the United States.
And I think one dimension that is not pointed out here is that the -- given the international economic sanctions, the only source of foreign revenue earning would be the sales of the military weapons, short-range missiles. It's a very lucrative (INAUDIBLE) market there.
So probably they're demonstrating the merchandise, so to speak, so that dimension is going to be a very important one, because North Korea is very squeezed economically by the international community.
KING: So your analysis that North Korea is demonstrating what it has in the store, that's your analysis?
HAN PARK: I think that that's entirely possible. The North Korean military is independent of everything. They want to demonstrate that they're not going to listen to anyone. And in North Korea, there is something called the independent accounting system. The military will be allowed to engage itself in economic activities.
And I think that (INAUDIBLE), the short-range missiles, because there is a rational decision on the part of the military. So this is not really -- it is partly political gesture, partly economic maneuver. I don't think it is a military significance at all.
KING: And Han Park, tell me, what is the accountability to those in the North Korean military, if, in fact, it turns out that what U.S. intelligence sources are telling us, this new long-range missile failed seconds, 42 seconds or so after takeoff? What will the accountability be in North Korea for that?
HAN PARK: I think that the fact that they failed with this long- range missile does not undercut anything in terms of North Korean military accountability within the country. We haven't heard anything, but they are going to, I'm pretty sure, come out and say that all the tests have been successful.
But North Korea has never meant and is not a threat to the United States. I don't know where the idea came from that (INAUDIBLE), namely North Korea, is a threat directly to the United States. The North Korea, primary, North Korea's (INAUDIBLE) objective is to improve relations with the United States. So if anything, they want to get attention. And this testing really has achieved that.
So I don't think North Korea will come out with their tail between their legs, and, We failed with the long-range missile.
KING: Professor Han Park, thanks for joining us on the telephone from Seoul.
We need to work in a quick break. But I have a -- just a guess, shall I say, from standing at the table, that our guests Richard Falkenrath and John McLaughlin have quite a different assessment.
We'll be back in THE SITUATION ROOM with more coverage of this breaking news story, at least three missile firings by North Korea.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: More coverage of our breaking news story, North Korea firing at least three missiles, a provocative confrontation with the Bush White House, raising a stir across Asia as well.
I want to continue our conversation with two of the best in the business, our CNN security analysts Richard Falkenrath, John McLaughlin.
John, you were talking earlier about the missile capabilities and how it's different, how they test them live, if you will. You heard our last guest talking about he thinks perhaps this is some demonstration of the products, if you will, that North Korea wants to sell more short-range missiles.
MCLAUGHLIN: I don't think so, no. They sell plenty of short- range missiles. They don't need a trade fair. Their missile, the Nodong, is probably the most commonly exported and sold medium-range missile in the world. They make a lot of money doing this, by their standards.
No, I think they hoped that this missile would actually get up there, separate stages, ignite at altitude, go downrange. I don't think they were trying to hit the United States here, but I do think they were trying to demonstrate that they could fire a missile over Japan and out into the Pacific and tell the world that they have a long-range capability. I think that's what they were trying to do.
KING: And Richard, you know the players in the Bush White House, they have a decision to make now about what diplomatic posture to take. It seems to be low key for the moment, the president sending Chris Hill to Asia, working the phones to call his defense secretary, his secretary of state, meet with his national security adviser, but then go to the fireworks, trying to almost send a public message, Nice try.
FALKENRATH: That's right. And they are going to work very hard to talk to our partners in the region. The two premises of the Bush administration's policy toward North Korea is, first, the six-party talks are the way to go. The -- use China, Russia, Japan, South Korea as your allies in dealing with the very problematic state.
And the second premise is, you cannot trust these guys. And this act today will reaffirm that premise, which the Bush administration came into office with. They're violating today their unilateral moratorium on missile tests, and it will basically say to the Bush administration, See, we were right, you cannot trust these guys under any means.
And that has been the big issue in our talks with them on their nuclear program, trying to get verification that we could have confidence in when they give assurance that they'll stop. KING: More questions in just a minute.
I want to quickly go over to the White House, our Ed Henry. We heard Kyra Phillips saying earlier that from her sources, there was, in fact, a fourth missile fired.
I understand, Ed, you may have some information on that.
HENRY: That's right, we're confirming not only what Kyra was reporting, that there was a fourth missile test. We're now confirming with a senior U.S. official, in all, there were six missile tests. The fourth one that Kyra was reporting on was a Scud, according to this U.S. official, the shorter, medium-range missile.
The fifth -- That fourth one, by the way, happened about 6:12 Eastern time. At about 6:31 Eastern time, we're told, there was a fifth one. It was a TD-2, that longer-term missile we've been hearing about. So that is now fifth overall, but second long-term missile tested.
Finally there was a sixth missile. This one was a Scud as well, unclear exactly what time, but obviously, some point after 6:31 Eastern time.
So to sum up now, a senior U.S. official here saying that there were, in all, at least six missile tests from North Korea, much more than we've heard already, and two of them were the longer-range -- or long-range TD-2 missiles.
And finally, also just to sum up, I want to stress that, as we heard earlier from a senior U.S. official, the White House here does not believe that there is any immediate threat to the United States. People are hearing these reports. It's obviously a very serious, urgent matter. But the White House feels there is no immediate threat to the United States. But they are saying, obviously, this is a provocation from North Korea that they are taking very seriously, John.
KING: Ed Henry at the White House. Thank you very much.
Gentlemen, we have about 30 seconds before we need to take a break. Two long-range missiles, we were anticipating the test of one. What does that tell you?
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, it confirms a suspicion I had that they wouldn't fire off one of these, if that was the only one they had. In other words, they want to have a refire in the inventory to explore. And they may have more, for that matter. But...
FALKENRATH: Burned a lot of jet fuel, rocket fuel, today. I think they're trying to test their warheads. I mean, it sounds to me that for them, the name of the game is to mate a nuclear weapon to a missile. They haven't been able to do that. My hunch is, they're working on a design that will allow them to actually launch a warhead.
KING: We'll continue this discussion in the next hour. Richard Falkenrath, John McLaughlin, thank you very much. Ed Henry, thank you for that confirmation of that breaking news.
Stay with us. Breaking news, North Korea provoking a diplomatic confrontation, military calculations as well, by launching six missiles now, we are told by the White House, on this Independence Day.
Stay with us here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
