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The Situation Room
White House Confirms North Korea Fired at Least Five Missiles; Mideast Hostilities Escalate
Aired July 04, 2006 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: To our viewers in the United States and across the globe, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new picture and information are arriving all the time
Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world, to bring you tonight's top stories.
Happening now, breaking news, North Korea launches a global security crisis by testing missiles, and testing the world.
It's 8:00 a.m. Wednesday in Pyongyang, where the communist government is making good on its threat. A missile that could have reached the United States failed, but a dangerous and defiant message is getting through.
What should the White House do now? It's 7:00 p.m. here in Washington, where the Bush administration is consulting with key allies, including Japan. We'll have live reports from around the world on the response from North Korea's bold provocation.
And what could North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il be thinking? Is he proving he's downright crazy, or as politically shrewd as they come? Tonight, the man behind the missiles.
Wolf Blitzer is off. I'm John King. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
We begin with the latest developments in our breaking news story. We're just learning the White House says at least six missiles were tested in the past few hours by the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, including at least one long-range missile believed capable of reaching the United States.
Standing by with the latest, CNN national security correspondent David Ensor, CNN's Brian Todd and Zain Verjee and our White House correspondent Ed Henry. Ed begins this hour's coverage. Ed, dramatic developments, what's the latest?
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: That's right indeed John. This now coming on the record from Steven Hadley, the White House National Security Adviser. That the White House is saying on the record there were six tests by North Korea. To go through the timeline, the first one was at just about 2:33 eastern time, the second one 3:04 eastern time, those were the short to medium range missiles. Then the third one was just around after 4:00 p.m. eastern time. That one was the TD-2, the long-term missile that everyone had been waiting for, the so-called big one. We're now being told by Mr. Hadley that there was a fourth one at 6:12 eastern time, that one was a scud. The shorter or medium term missile. There was some confusion about the fifth one. An initial report we had was that it was another TD-2. There's some confusion about whether in fact it was or whether it was just a short or medium term missile as well. The sixth one though for sure was a scud. It was not a long-range missile.
The White House being careful to walk a fine line here, saying, they're trying to reassure Americans that they do not believe there is an immediate threat to the United States. Americans all around the country on this Independence Day getting these scattered reports about an urgent problem with North Korea. The White House trying to reassure Americans they do not believe there's an immediate threat but they do think is a provocation from North Korea and they're really trying to push back and make this more of an international situation.
Not make it the United States against North Korea, but say that Kim Jong-Il the dictator in North Korea has now further isolated himself and it's up to him, the ball's in his court, to stop the missile tests and also come back to the six-party talks. And finally the White House now, a sign of the urgency. Tomorrow sending a top state department official Chris Hill to the region, to deal with the diplomatic situation on the ground. John?
KING: Ed you say an urgent response sending a top state department official but obviously the White House trying to keep it at a medium level, if you will, not to escalate it to the level I assume they think the North Korean leader is trying to get them to bring it to.
HENRY: Exactly. They don't want to fall into the trap where Kim Jong-Il wants to draw President Bush in directly. The president wants to take it seriously obviously but he is not going to get directly pulled in, in a tit for tat with the North Korean dictator. In fact we're told the president is moving ahead tonight with watching the fireworks here in the National Mall that will be starting in the next couple of hours. And he's moving ahead with a small birthday bash that some of his friends and family have planned for him, his 60th birthday on Thursday. So they're again walking that fine line, they're moving ahead almost as if business as usual but making clear they realize the urgency of the situation. But they do not want to be drawn in directly with Kim Jong-Il and the president himself moving ahead with some of his schedule. John?
KING: And Ed, it's often hard to get information, often conflicting information in the early minutes of a dramatic story like this, explain if you will the confusion I would assume with the satellite technology the United States have and other spy capabilities, there shouldn't be any confusion. At least at top White House levels about whether one of those missiles was in fact, whether there were one or two long-range missiles tested.
HENRY: Well a number of things, number one, obviously while this was happening from about 3:00 p.m., 2:30 p.m., through 6:00 p.m. eastern time here in the United States, this was happening in the dark in North Korea. And despite that technology, obviously there is some confusion about exactly what was happening on the ground. There was also scattered reports throughout the administration, you have the defense department, the state department, the White House dealing with it.
A White House official just a short time ago insisting to us that they were only aware, this was maybe a half hour or so ago, that they were only aware of three total tests. As you know, CNN had been reporting from Kyra Phillips and others that there were four tests and the White House was saying no, we only know about three. Now they're amending to say at least four, in fact it's six. And that's on the record now from Steven Hadley. So that's the best information we have right now, that there were six tests, that according to the national security adviser, Steven Hadley. John?
KING: Ed Henry for us at the White House. Ed thank you very much. And at the pentagon officials were ready for a shoot-down order if they got one, but the North Korea's long-range test missile went down on its own. Our pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr has more on the U.S. military's tracking of the test and the threat. Barbara?
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well John even at this hour, U.S. military officials, command centers at Norad in Colorado at the U.S. Strategic Command in Omaha are continuing to watch North Korea, watch all of this unfold around the clock. Let's be clear here. What we do know is at least one of these missiles was that long range Taepodong-2, the one that the U.S. was most directly concerned about. That missile failed less than 60 seconds after launch. It dropped into the sea of Japan and the U.S. military had no response to it because they simply didn't need to, it was a very quick failure at launch.
Then there were at least two scud sea missiles we are told, they also dropped into the sea of Japan, one closer to Japan, one closer to Russia. The U.S. military is continuing now to monitor all of these missile launches as they unfold. They are seeing them as they unfold because U.S. spy satellites can keep track and detect the exhaust plume from missile launches as they happen. But there's going to probably be a good deal of confusion about what kind of missiles the shorter range scud type, scud variant missiles that North Korea has launched missiles three four, five, and six, if you will.
Because North Korea often establishes its very own variants of scud missiles. They call them no-dongs, they call them scud-c's, they call them a variety of things. And very often with North Korea John, it's simply some sort of customized missile configuration that they have basically clued together. So there will be a good deal of work going on now, looking at the telemetry, looking at the intelligence. Maybe not necessarily putting a name to each of these shorter-range missiles, but trying to figure out what capability each of those missiles had. John?
KING: Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr, Barbara thank you very much for that. So what was the motivation for North Korea to conduct these test launches. CNN's Brian Todd is here with part of that story. Brian? BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: John, North Korea leader has been called everything from crazy to calculating. With this latest seemingly dangerous move, analysts are trying to figure out which Kim Jong-Il are we seeing now.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TODD: Before the missile test, Kim Jong-Il appeared to have some leverage. Analysts said he might have been using the tension generated by the build-up to extract economic concessions from China, Russia, possibly even the U.S. With that now in jeopardy, experts believe Kim had several possible motivations to launch the test. One, simply to see what he had in his arsenal.
JOHN PIKE, GLOBALSECURITY.ORG: The benefits of launching sooner than later are you get test data on this long range missile.
TODD: Even with the apparent technical failure of the missile, experts believe Kim may have wanted to send a signal to the world and his own people that his military capability is growing and that his hold on power is solid.
JOHN MCLAUGHLIN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Kim Jong-Il does not have the authority his father did, Kim Il-Song(PH). And an action like this may be one way that he is trying to establish that authority and impress those around him that he is just as tough as his father was.
TODD: Another point, to steal some of the world's attention back.
PIKE: He fancies himself the world's leader of the anti imperialist struggle. But I'd say over the last six or eight months, Mr. Ahmedinejad in Iran has been getting a lot of headlines, Mr. Chavez down in Venezuela gets a lot of headlines. But nobody has been paying too much attention until recently to Kim Jong-Il and he's like everybody else, he likes to get on TV.
(END OF VIDEOTAPE)
TODD: Kim is also not likely intimidated by the possibility now of further sanctions according to experts. His country is already isolated, his people already starving, and one analysts says in the end he doesn't think his best ally, China, will let North Korea fall completely apart. John?
KING: Brian Todd for us. An interesting look at a fascinating -- some people use other words. Brian Todd, thank you very much. And Jack Cafferty joins us now from New York. He's been watching this all afternoon. Hey Jack.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: How are you doing John? Remember when President Bush said this --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: States like these and their terrorist allies constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.
(END OF VIDEO CLIP)
CAFFERTY: That was January 2002, the president referring, of course, to Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Fast forward four years. The U.S. has now been involved in the war in Iraq for well over three years with no end in site. Iran continues its efforts to enrich uranium, insisting it's just for peaceful purposes while many around the world fear they are actually embarking on a nuclear weapons program. And now we have North Korea going ahead today with test missile launches, including the failed launch of at least one long- range missile today. Looks like President Bush might have been on to something, doesn't it. Here's the question, which country from President Bush's axis of evil, Iraq, Iran, or North Korea poses the greatest threat to the United States. E-mail your thoughts to caffertyfile@cnn.com or go to cnn.com/caffertyfile. John?
KING: That question is going to get you your own personal version of 4th of July fireworks.
CAFFERTY: There you go.
KING: Thank you Jack. And coming up live reports from China, South Korea and Japan reacting to the North Korea missile firings.
Plus a dictator, eccentric at best, dangerously unstable at worst. We'll explore the mystery of Kim Jong-Il and what may be driving him to provoke the world.
Plus, will the Bush administration let North Korea's defiance stand? Our CNN security council takes on the question, what should the White House do now?
And a fourth of July launch that was welcomed by many Americans, "Discovery" now in orbit. The space shuttle program back in business. We'll have a live report on the mission and the problem that could have thwarted it.
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KING: More now on this breaking news we're following. North Korea's defiant acts that provoked the world, the launch of at least five missiles, one of them the big one. The long-range Taepodong-2 that apparently failed. We have three reports from the region now, CNN's Jaime Florcruz is in China, Sohn Jie-Ae is in Seoul, South Korea. But we turn first to CNN's Atika Shubert, she's in Tokyo, Japan. Atika?
ATIKA SHUBERT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well John Japan is the country that's been most anxious about this. All missiles were headed towards Japan, of course at least three of them fell harmlessly into the sea of Japan, the closest one about 500 kilometers or 300 miles off the west coast of Hokkaido Island. Japan says it is gravely concerned and that it is issuing a serious protest to North Korea. In the meantime, U.S. and Japanese officials are discussing whether or not to bring this to the U.N. security counsel. Also Japanese reporters are in Pyongyang, North Korea at the moment for a separate story, they've been monitoring the media there, but so far no announcement from the Pyongyang government. John?
KING: And Atika when Japan talks about possible more aggressive action, is it just sanctions at the U.N. security counsel or any unilateral steps that could be on the table?
SHUBERT: Japan has said that if the missile tests were conducted it would possibly put forth it's own unilateral economic sanctions, but that it may also call for U.N. economic sanctions. So both could be possible, we'll have to wait and see what the two delegations come up with, U.S. and Japan when they bring it to the U.N.
KING: Atika Shubert in Tokyo. Thank you. We want to move on now to CNN's Sohn Jie-Ae in Seoul, South Korea. Sohn Jie-Ae I assume the South Korean government, you said earlier no official response yet, it has perhaps the most at stake in this confrontation. Anything as yet?
SOHN JIE-AE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No South Korea, not yet, John. South Korean national security counsel ministers are huddled in a meeting to try to come forth with an official position on North Korea's missile launch. When they do come forth, it is expected to condemn North Korea, but it is also expected to urge calm in the region. South Korea is typically known to be very cautious and slow in putting forth their position against North Korea. At this point, South Korean officials are very concerned about the adverse effects of North Korea's missile launch in terms of raising tensions in the region and what that effect would have on South Korea. John?
KING: And in the lead-up to this, while the whole world was condemning just simply putting the long-range missile out on the launch-pad and saying North Korea should not test. What was the position of the South Korean government going into it? Was it as strong as the United States and Japan, in warning the north not to do this?
JIE-AE: Yes, South Korean government has said many times that it is doing everything in their power to urge North Korea not to launch the missiles. It has said it is going through official as well as unofficial channels to try to do anything it can. But we talked to a number of analysts here that have been watching North Korea for many years and although there have been many, many logical reasons for North Korea not to launch, these North Korean analysts at the last moment have said their gut feeling is that North Korea would go on anyway. John?
KING: Sohn Jie-Ae for us in Seoul. Sohn thank you very much. We're going to move on now to Beijing. China is a close trade partner to North Korea and in the view of the United States any way, the country with the most influence over the regime in Pyongyang. Joining us now on the phone, our Beijing bureau chief Jaime Florcruz. Jaime, any reaction from the Chinese government as yet?
JAIME FLORCRUZ: John, no immediate reaction yet from the Chinese. A foreign ministry spokesman simply saying that they are still waiting for more information to get a better understanding of this situation. However the Chinese media, the (INAUDIBLE) News Agency, promptly reported the news, both quoting CNN as sources, saying that the missile tests have been conducted and that according to a U.S. official saying that it is a provocation. Now, the missile test put China on the spot because China is North Korea's neighbor and major ally and provider of food and supplies. Chinese officials saying they are trying to revive the six-party talks which is stalled right now. John?
KING: Jaime as you know, the big question, if this goes to the United Nation's security counsel, if there's any push for sanctions, China has a veto. Has there been any discussion as we have awaited the possibility of missile testing by North Korea. Any discussion in the official Chinese press or from the government as to what it's posture would be if there is a U.N. debate about sanctions?
FLORCRUZ: No official discussion by the Chinese officials or by the media. However, the Chinese typically do not think that economic sanctions is the best way to deal with this. They still think that diplomacy and negotiation is the best way to solve the crisis. John?
KING: Jaime Florcruz for us in Beijing. Atika Shubert in Tokyo. Sohn Jie-Ae in Seoul. We will check back with all three of you, great reporting from the scene in Asia. Thank you all very much. And let's go now to New York where our senior united nation's correspondent Richard Roth is standing by. Richard?
RICHARD ROTH, CNN SENIOR UNITED NATION'S CORRESPONDENT: John we spoke with a Chinese official here in New York who said his country is going to take a cautious approach to see just exactly what happened. A lot of people say they are just watching this network to see what they can learn, diplomats hanging out here in New York. U.S. Ambassador John Bolten though has been working the telephone speaking to other members of the security council. The North Korea issue will definitely come up in discussions tomorrow. It is unclear where it goes. Will it be a simple statement which all 15 countries would have to agree to or a stronger resolution. A couple of days ago John, U.S. Ambassador Bolten said when asked about North Korea's desire for talks, he said you don't normally engage in conversations with someone launching intercontinental ballistic missiles. John?
KING: Richard Roth for us in New York, we'll check back with you as well. We want to go then now quickly over to the White House, though, our Ed Henry there. Ed, we were discussing earlier often in the wake of these dramatic developments, they're sometimes confusing, often conflicting information, a bit of a clarification from the White House I understand?
HENRY: That's right. White House spokesman Tony Show has come out and said on the record, the White House is walking back from six confirmed missile tests. We heard that just a short while ago, we reported it at the top of the hour. The White House initially did say it was six tests, they're now saying it's five confirmed. That leaves open the possibility there could have been a sixth test but they've only confirmed five. We'll have to see in the hours ahead how many the total will end up being, but at this moment, Tony Snow saying on the record, it's five tests.
And to be clear, the fourth one we'd already heard all day about or at least in the last few hours about the first three. The fourth one was a scud, that's basically a short-range missile. The fifth one at 6:31 eastern time what is referred to as a no-dong, it's a short to medium range missile. Each one lasted just a few moments. So in summation, you have two scuds, one no-dong missile. There was also one that was undetermined exactly what it is. That's why there's some confusion about another one and exactly what that one was. But one Taepodong, that's the key one, the big one that everyone has been referring to. The White House saying there was only one of those. And in summation, Tony Snow saying that the bottom line is the White House considers this a provocation from North Korea but they want to reassure Americans they do not believe there is an immediate threat to the United States. And he added, quote, the last thing you want to do is escalate this, you want to deal with it coolly and diplomatically, that's why tomorrow the White House is already sending state department official Chris Hill to the region to deal with it diplomatically. John?
KING: Ed Henry, tracking this developing story for us at the White House. Ed, thank you very much. And still to come tonight in THE SITUATION ROOM, North Korea says it will start a nuclear war if the United States tries to attack it first. So how now should the United States respond to today's missile firings.
And why was a CIA unit in charge of finding Osama Bin Laden disbanded? The CIA says with good reason, but critics call it a mistake.
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KING: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. We continue to track today's dramatic breaking news. North Korea firing several missiles, at least five missiles, provoking a confrontation with the United States. But as we continue to wait for new developments in that story, Zain Verjee joins us now with other news making headlines right now. Hi Zain?
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Hi John. Mid-east hostilities are ratcheting up yet another notch. Both sides saying Israeli war planes have attacked the Palestinian interior ministry in Gaza for the second time in a week. There are no immediate reports of casualties. The strikes follow a rocket attack on an empty Israeli school and air strikes on a Hamas training base. The tensions were triggered by Palestinian militants abducting an Israeli corporal Gilad Shalit, a 19-year-old boy late last month. Shalit's condition remains unclear.
Critics say the CIA's decision to close the unit dedicated to tracking Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden is a mistake. The unit dubbed Alec Station reportedly was shut down late last year, it's predated the 9/11 attacks in 2001. The "New York Times" quotes intelligence officials as saying Al Qaeda may be the inspiration for terrorist attacks are now being carried out independently of Bin Laden. Atlantic City, New Jersey is gearing up for a dismal end to the Fourth of July holiday weekend. The city's 12 casinos are scheduled to close tomorrow if the state government fails to resolve its budget crisis tonight. New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine called a special legislative session today. Assembly speaker Joseph Roberts says the budget writers will work through the night to craft a new plan. John?
KING: Zain Verjee thank you very much Zain. And just ahead, now that North Korea has provoked the world, how should the United States respond, especially considering North Korea has threatened nuclear war if the United States strikes it first. And U.S. officials call North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il a lunatic. We'll have a unique look at the communist nation's very reclusive leader.
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KING: You're in THE SITUATION ROOM. Wolf Blitzer is off today. I'm John King. For all the attention he's getting Kim Jong-Il is one of the most mysterious leaders in the world, CNN's Zain Verjee is here with a look at what we know and don't know about North Korea's leader. Zain?
VERJEE: John we don't know for certain where or when he was born, how many times he's been married or even exactly how many children he has. But we do know that despite his reputation as being very odd, he's even been called crazy, he's actually anything but.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETER MAASS, NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE: He's not crazy. He might be emotional, he might be somewhat eccentric but crazy absolutely not.
VERJEE: Indeed Kim Jong-Il's persona may be carefully cultivated, as supreme leader of an impoverished country, he has little to bargain with on the international stage. And his reputation may work to his advantage.
But behind it, there is by all accounts a shrewd dictator.
MAASS: Everybody that has met with Kim Jong-Il, other than quite a few South Koreans, Americans, Russians, North Koreans have since defected. They all come out saying this man knows what he's doing.
VERJEE: Kim Jong-Il inherited the role of absolute ruler from his father, Kim Il-Soon who died in 1994. The elder Kim dubbed himself great leader and the younger followed suit, he's known as dear leader. He is believed to have been born in the Soviet Union in 1941 or '42. But his birthplace is often listed instead as a mountain famous in Korean mythology. He's thought to have been married three times, although it's not clear if all were official. And he's known to have three sons and at least one daughter. Rather short in stature, he's rumored to wear platform shoes. He, nonetheless, had a reputation as a heard-partying playboy as a young man and reportedly still has an eye for the ladies.
JERROLD POST, FORMER CIA PROFILER: He recruits at junior high school level, attractive young girls with clear complexions and pretty faces to be enrolled in his joy brigades. And the joy brigades' function is to provide rest and relaxation for his hard work senior officials.
(END OF VIDEOTAPE)
VERJEE: Kim is also a huge film buff with a collection of as many as 20,000 films. U.S. officials say he even once went so far to order the kidnapping of a South Korean actress and her director husband. John?
KING: Fascinating look at a fascinating leader. Zain Verjee, thank you very much. So how should the United States respond now that North Korea has fired at least five missiles provoking a diplomatic confrontation on this independence day.
Joining me now in THE SITUATION ROOM, Samuel Berger, he was national security adviser in the Clinton White House. Returning with us John McLaughlin, former deputy director of the CIA. Sandy Berger, you have been through this dance with Kim Jong-Il in the past obviously he wants the president of the United States to respond, this president's position has been -- come back to the six-party talks. If you had five minutes with George W. Bush tonight, what would you tell him to do?
SAMUEL BERGER, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Well, I -- I think this is -- this is clearly a serious provocation on the part of North Korea, and it ought to be met with a stern response on the part of the United States and others.
I suspect Japan will cut off trade. I suspect that they will do something about the remittances that go from Japan to North Korea. I think we should reverse the sanctions that we eased at the time of the nuclear moratorium in 1999.
So, in the -- in the near term, I think our response ought to be stern and clear. Ultimately, however, the real threat here is their nuclear weapons program. And we are going to have to take a new look, I think, at how we have approached that issue. The six-party talks have not succeeded. And I think we are probably going to have to engage more directly with the North Koreans to either determine that there is a solution, or to convince China and South Korea to join us in sterner sanctions.
KING: And, John McLaughlin, as -- as Sandy lays out the diplomatic choices facing the administration and its allies, there's also an intelligence question, after firing five missiles, the CIA and other agencies trying to learn more about just what North Korea's capabilities are.
I want you to listen, before I ask you a question, to something the president told me just a little more than a week ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICHARD B. CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think it's also fair to say that the North Korean missile capabilities are fairly rudimentary. I mean, they're -- they have been building Scuds and so forth over the years. But their test flights in the past haven't been notably successful. But we are watching it with interest and following it very closely.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: "Fairly rudimentary," he says. And some might argue, if this Taepodong-2 failed today, that he's right that it's fairly rudimentary.
But be honest. What do we really know about North Korea and its missile program?
JOHN MCLAUGHLIN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Well, we know quite a bit.
And even though this launch was a failure, as I mentioned earlier, John, there is a good deal of success in their background, too. Back in 1988, when they launched the Taepodong-1, a shorter- range missile, but still beyond the range of the No-dong or the Scud, they did manage to get -- get it off the launchpad, separate the stages at altitude, and then ignite the second stage and send it downrange.
That's one of the toughest things to master in missile technology. And they -- they did that. I think the failure here was with this first stage. Had that worked, it might be that we would have seen those stages separate, ignite and move down -- downrange.
I am sure there's an intelligence bonanza in these tests, because, with all the warning we had, you can bet every system the United States has was trained on this. And we knew a lot about their missiles before, but we will know a lot more now.
KING: Sandy was noting, to him, the big issue looking forward is their nuclear weapons, and what do you deal with them?
MCLAUGHLIN: Yes.
KING: Before I ask him for his diplomatic advice, give me your intelligence assessment. How many does he have, and what is his capability, if any, of delivering them?
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, how many he has depends on how you divide up the amount of plutonium that we think he has and -- and the size of the warheads that he would make.
The best guesses, best estimates, I think, are in the range of six to eight warheads. And we do not know -- at least I do not know -- for certain that they can weaponize that material and put it into a -- a warhead that can be delivered by a missile.
But I would put the chances of their capability to do that at about 80 percent. I would say it would be very prudent to assume, with all the years that they have had to work on this, that they can weaponize a warhead and put it on a missile. I think they can.
(CROSSTALK)
KING: If he has an 80 percent probability of being able to weaponize it and deliver it, even if he's crazy, you have to take him seriously. What do you do from this point out? As you know, the administration has a proposal on the table. The administration says it has some incentives in it, diplomatic conversations, economic relations down the road.
But North Korea has to come back in first to the table. In a situation like this, do you have to shake it up? Do you have to start over? Do you have to have a new proposal?
BERGER: I think it is time to reexamine our strategy in terms of the negotiations.
The six-party talks have not been successful in their present form. We ultimately are going to have to engage directly with the North Koreans, either to determine that we can, in fact, stop their weapons and missile programs in a verifiable way, or to convince the Chinese and the South Koreans that sterner sanctions are possible and necessary.
KING: Well, John, you know this president. This is more of a political assessment than an intelligence assessment. But he's a Texan. The leader of North Korea just lobbed five missiles into the air on America's birthday, on a day were sending the shuttle back into space.
Do you think George Bush's reflex is going to be, let's have a new proposal, some incentives for North Korea?
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, I think his approach up until now has been a diplomatic one toward North Korea. So, I think he will stay with the diplomatic track. I wouldn't anticipate the president leaving that track or taking any kind of military action here.
He might take a look at new proposals, but a point I would like to make is that, when you are dealing with North Korea, you are kind of caught in a bind here. Yes, you can impose sanctions, but this is a society that doesn't sell very much. It's a society that can't feed itself.
And, so, if you put a lot of pressure on it -- and this is why we haven't heard from the South Koreans up until now -- you put a lot of pressure on this society, it might just collapse like meringue. And, if it did, then you have got a tremendous problem, refugees flowing south. You might have some foolish military leader in those circumstances launch some kind of ill-advised attack.
And, ultimately, you would be triggering a requirement for the United States and the rest of the world to deal with the unification of the Korean Peninsula, which would cost hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars. So, you are dealing here with a -- a very -- you know, a fragile society, where you don't have the same screws to turn with the same effectiveness that you would, say, in the case of Iran, which is a more developed society, wealthier, trades with the world, has things to sell, and so forth.
KING: What other country -- as we wait to see exactly how the United States plays this out over the next several days, what other country, in your view, is most important? And what are you looking for?
BERGER: Well, the most important countries here are really South Korea and China. They are the two countries that retain contact with North Korea and leverage over North Korea.
I think the Japanese will clearly respond in a serious and stern way. I think it's going to be important to try to get the Chinese and the South Koreans to also respond seriously to this provocation.
But, ultimately, we have to deal with their nuclear weapons program. And we are not going to get China and South Korea, in my judgment, to join us in those kinds of -- of serious sanctions, unless we have tested the negotiating track in a more serious way than we have so far.
KING: High-stakes decisions ahead for President Bush and for his allies in these talks.
We thank you both for your thoughts, John McLaughlin, former deputy director of the CIA, Sandy Berger, national security adviser in the Clinton White House.
(CROSSTALK)
KING: Thank you both for joining us.
And, up ahead tonight: new information coming into us from Japan. We will go there live next.
Plus, North Korea's missile power -- the inside intelligence on what the communist government can do and what it might do next.
Also, the space shuttle Discovery now in orbit, defying the weather and a last-minute problem. We will show you the launch and have the latest on the mission.
Stay right there. You are in THE SITUATION ROOM.
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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.
KING: Welcome back to our coverage of this dramatic breaking news on Independence Day here in the United States: North Korea launching at least five missiles, provoking a diplomatic confrontation with the Bush administration, also stirring up political and diplomatic reaction across Asia.
For the latest now, we want to go to CNN's Atika Shubert. She joins us live from Tokyo -- Atika.
SHUBERT: Well, John, Japan's prime minister has just wrapped up an emergency meeting with his ministers.
And, out of that, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe is now just finishing a press conference, where he confirmed that North Korea had in fact launched five missiles, all of them falling harmlessly into the Sea of Japan, causing no damage to Japanese territory.
He did say, however, that Japan was launching a serious protest and that it was considering all legal options in protesting this to North Korea. He stopped short, however, of saying Japan would impose sanctions. He said that the details of the missile launches had to be confirmed before Japan would make such a decision, but that the government was planning to take its case to the U.N. Security Council -- no word yet, however, when the Security Council will convene a meeting -- John.
KING: And, Atika, contrast Japan's position, coming out with this statement, having the emergency meeting, with the silence we are getting out of Seoul. Explain, especially to our viewers here in the United States, who might not follow this as closely as you do, the different perspectives, if you will, of the different governments.
SHUBERT: Well, Japan has a starkly different view from China and South Korea on this.
Japan follows the U.S. position, taking a much harder line with North Korea. Of course, Japan is the most anxious out of all these neighbors. It is directly in the path of these missiles. And that's why it takes it so seriously.
South Korea, on the other hand, has been very quiet. China has, too. And China and South Korea are really the neighbors that have the best relationship with North Korea. They are the ones that have the most leverage. And Japan, even though it's very upset, even though it's going to issue a strong protest, even though it's threatened economic sanctions, really does not have as much influence over North Korea.
So, Japan will really have to rely on its neighbors, China and South Korea, to get North Korea to make more of a commitment.
KING: Atika Shubert for us live in Tokyo with the latest -- Atika, thank you very much.
And more now on this breaking news, the launch of a series of missiles by North Korea.
Joining me now is CNN security analyst Richard Falkenrath, former deputy White House homeland security adviser, and Jim Walsh, an international security analyst with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Richard, the Bush administration has some decisions to make. What, in your sense, is the immediate calculation and the decision facing the president?
RICHARD FALKENRATH, CNN SECURITY ANALYST: Well, I think the president will try to get the other partners involved in dealing with North Korea to speak out on this in unison with the United States.
It doesn't matter right now so much what the United States does. It matters a lot what China, Japan, and North -- and South Korea say. And, so, my guess is, right now, they are working very hard behind the scenes to get one voice to speak on this matter, both towards North Korea and then again in the United Nations Security Council, rather than stepping up quickly on its own.
KING: And, Jim, is that the right posture? I guess the question is, North Korea's leader screams, should the rest of the world community speak quietly?
JIM WALSH, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST, MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY: Well, I think Richard is right, but the -- it's also important, I think, for the U.S. to be proactive in standing with its ally, Japan, because Japan, as you just heard, is going to be -- of all the countries, is going to react most strongly to this.
And I think it would -- it might calm the waters in Japan a bit if the U.S. again asserted our longtime political friendship, the importance of the alliance, and -- and reassured the Japanese officials that the U.S. is on their side and will always defend them.
We don't want nationalism to rise up in Japan. We don't want rivalries between a Japan and a South Korea -- or Japan and a North Korea 10 or 15 years down the line. And part of that is acting now to make Japanese officials and the public feel as if the U.S. is behind them.
KING: As we debate the question what now, I think comes into mind, what if? There are some who, over the past couple of weeks, as this missile, the long-range Taepodong-2, was put on the launchpad, there were some, former Clinton administration Defense Secretary Bill Perry -- and I believe we have sound from the former CIA Director James Woolsey saying, take it out; don't let it come to this.
Let's listen to Director Woolsey, if we still have that.
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JAMES WOOLSEY, FORMER CIA DIRECTOR: It would be relatively easy to do. A few submarine launch cruise missiles, not nuclear, simply high explosives, could take this out very easily. It's a fully fueled, thin-skinned missile sitting on a pad. It would be a very simple task.
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KING: None of these questions are easy, but what's the easier situation, take it out and deal with that provocation and confrontation, or let North Korea go first, if you will, and deal with this? FALKENRATH: Well, I think they thought that, if they struck now, if they took it out in advance, which Director Woolsey is right, they could have done pretty easily, they would have precipitated a much larger crisis than we have right now.
I mean, the real question here is, will the North Korean regime survive? Or will it fall apart? And if it falls apart, it can do so in a very bloody, messy, and expensive way. And, so, that's the sort of -- the question, sort of, be careful of what you wish for here. Don't -- if you be -- if you are too coercive with North Korea, you might precipitate a massive regional crisis very quickly.
And that, I think, and the regional partners definitely don't want, China, South Korea do not want. And even the Bush administration is -- is not so sure they want to go that route.
KING: Jim, so, what does happen next? I assume you agree with Richard's calculation that, let them be the bad guy. Don't knock out their missile and have them say we fired first.
WALSH: Oh, absolutely. I think it would have been a horrible mistake to have attacked and escalated. That only increases the chance of miscalculation and -- and of war. And that is something that no one wants. I think that would have been a terrible error.
I would point out that there are still -- we are still early in this game. The North Koreans often follow toughness by extending an olive branch, and vice versa. Now, they have launched these missiles. They could very well talk to U.S. officials or talk to interlocutors in China, and then be offering something that is in a more positive direction. We should give that a little time and see if that is going to happen.
And the other thing, John -- and you are going to be shocked by hearing me say this -- is, I actually think there is some good news in all this, on the Fourth of July. And it's the following. There has been a debate within the administration and within the expert community about whether North Korea is serious about giving up its nuclear weapons.
When I was in North Korea, North Korean officials, Kimge Gwan (ph) and others, said that they wanted a deal. But no one really knows. Do they want a deal or do they want to give up the weapons?
It seems to me that their actions today could be taken as evidence that suggest that they in fact do want a deal, that they want to provoke a situation, so that the U.S. will focus, engage directly, engage in the six-party talks, what have you, and have a deal. And, if they do want a deal, that is good news.
KING: Do you buy that, get attention to get everyone at the table?
FALKENRATH: Well, they do want a deal, but they don't want a real deal. They don't want a deal that's irreversible and that's verifiable and that's permanent. They would like to be rewarded for this, for their nuclear weapons capability, for their ballistic missile capability. The Bush administration is absolutely opposed to what they call rewarding bad behavior. This is bad behavior. They don't want to reward it.
If the North Koreans could write the terms of the deal, sure, they want that; they want recognition; they want money; they want trade. The Bush administration is really not going to go that route.
KING: Well, let me ask you, about 20 seconds each, to put this president into context at this moment.
We can, politically, here in the United States, the controversy over the war in Iraq, trying to deal with the Iran nuclear standoff, now North Korea on the table, Richard, does that factor in at all when you're in the rooms at the White House in the closed doors, and, you're -- what do we do?
FALKENRATH: The security advisers never raise that sort of thing. The political advisers might. The security advisers don't.
I think he actually feels that the American people have confidence in him when the going gets tough, when there's a security threat, and he's really not that influenced by these sort of considerations.
KING: Jim?
WALSH: Well, I think, in the short term, it strengthens his hand, because people are nervous.
But, in the long term, people are going to be asking questions, why does this crisis continue? Why does North Korea have more nuclear weapons at this point in the Bush administration than at the beginning of Bush administration? I think it's that longer-term question that will eat at him, unless there is some sort of change in policy.
KING: Jim Walsh joining us from Boston, Richard Falkenrath here in THE SITUATION ROOM, thank you both.
And, up ahead, off the launchpad and in orbit at last -- the shuttle Discovery begins its mission. Did the foam hold up? We will have a live recap after the break.
Then, later: In light of today's actions in North Korea by North Korea, Jack Cafferty wants to know, which country from President Bush's axis of evil, Iraq, Iran, or North Korea, poses the greatest threat to the United States? We are taking and reading your e-mails. They are coming up in THE SITUATION ROOM.
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KING: Now to the other big launch today, also closely watched, but very much expected and being celebrated tonight, the space shuttle Discovery, which is now safely in orbit.
CNN's John Zarrella is live for us at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida with the latest details.
Hi, John.
JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF: Hey, John.
That's right, 2:38 p.m., a flawless liftoff for the shuttle Discovery, with its seven-member crew headed now towards the International Space Station, no glitches in the hardware. Everything went smoothly. The only thing that did develop after liftoff, looking at some of the isolation cameras, NASA did show us some of what looked like foam coming away from the solid -- from the -- the main engine tank there, the external tank.
And, in fact, this hour, NASA officials are confirming five incidents of foam falling away, none, though, serious, it all happening fairly late in the ascent into orbit.
Now, some spectacular images that we just got downlinked to Earth from Discovery taken by the astronauts, who actually went to the window as they were ascending into orbit, and shot pictures of the tank falling away, falling, of course, into the Indian Ocean, the orange tank there, spectacular shots of that, and then a shot that I have never seen before, John.
What you are looking at now could look like -- appear to be what might be fabric material. In fact, that's what the astronauts thought it was, but what that is, is ice that also had fallen away from the external tank, these sharp shards of ice fall -- just spectacular images of those also floating away into free space.
Still waiting for some more downlinks of images, but those certainly some really cool pictures coming down to us from the shuttle Discovery -- John.
KING: And, John, as we watch those pictures, fascinating, as you said, put them into context for our viewers. These are not the astronauts leaning out the windows being tourists. They are taking these pictures for a very important analytical reason, right?
ZARRELLA: Yes, absolutely.
What they are doing is, they are trying to get the best possible gauge on how the external tank is performing, what the aerodynamics are like on the tank. It's a new lightweight design that they have used for the last couple of missions. So, they want to know how it's perform -- and they are finding things they never thought they would see, a lot of this foam that is falling off that they never would have seen before, and, of course, these giant pieces of ice that -- that are falling off of the tank in space.
Hard to believe, in that thermal heat of ascent, that you would have enormous chunks of ice that were still attached to that vehicle as it passed through that -- the -- the thermal stresses on the way into space -- John.
KING: And the big question, John, of course, any damage to the heat shields that brought about the tragic Columbia disaster? Do they get to that point of knowing simply from all these pictures, or will they need a space walk at some point?
ZARRELLA: No, they shouldn't need a space walk.
At this point, it's pretty clear from what they are seeing and what they're saying in these press briefings now that any of the debris that's fallen away, the foam that fell away, fell away far enough into the ascent and low enough on the -- on the vehicle that it did not and should not have impacted the shuttle. But they still have a couple more of these images they want to take a look at that they have not yet gotten downlinked to Earth -- John.
KING: John Zarrella, thank you very much, fascinating reporting, fascinating pictures so far -- a great mission so far for the space program. John, thank you very much.
And where is the space shuttle right now? Could it be flying over your hometown?
Our Internet reporter, Jacki Schechner, can help you pinpoint where to look for Discovery in the night sky -- Jacki.
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Well, right now, it looks like the shuttle is passing over Southern Africa.
You can go online to NASA. They are letting you track the shuttle, real-time online data. You can take a closer look.
They also let you track on the same graph. You can take a look at the International Space Station. And, eventually, what's going to happen is, the shuttle is going to catch up with the space station. And it's expected to dock there about 10:50 Eastern time on Thursday morning. It's flying lower now, because it can go faster that way. It -- eventually, it will power up to catch up to the space station.
Now, you can go to NASA's Web site and plug in your hometown and find out when you can have a sighting of either the International Space Station or the -- the space shuttle.
Now, it's going to appear above D.C. tonight about 9:35 p.m. But it's a very short viewing. You have got to catch it. About three minutes or so, it will appear in the sky, about a 50-mile radius of Washington, D.C. So, when you are looking up for fireworks, John, you can also look for the International Space Station.
KING: I was going to say, if they can speed it up, hit the gas pedal in space a little bit...
(LAUGHTER)
KING: ... they can catch the fireworks a little after 9:00 here in Washington.
Thank you, Jacki. Up next: Jack Cafferty and his question of the hour -- which country from President Bush's axis of evil, Iraq, Iran, or North Korea, poses the greatest threat to the United States? What you have to say when we come back.
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KING: Welcome back.
Let's go straight up to Jack Cafferty in New York with "The Cafferty File."
Hi, Jack.
CAFFERTY: John, the question: Which country from President Bush's axis of evil, Iraq, Iran or North Korea, poses the greatest threat to the United States?
Stephen in California writes: "Iran. North Korea's leader may be insane, but China and Russia have too much at stake to allow him to go beyond a certain point, a point which has yet to be determined. Iraq will lay out and our objectives there will be realized eventually. We cannot allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons, because they will either use them or give them to a terrorist organization.
Richard in Chicago: "North Korea is the most dangerous. It is ruled by a man who doesn't act rationally and has a gigantic army on the South Korean border."
Benjamin in Los Angeles: "Iran, plain and simple. Although they're Shiite, they may very well have the support of the entire Middle East. North Korea, however, is the annoying little kid of the world. No country would step up to protect -- protect them if it came to a war of World War III proportions."
Daniel in Winston-Salem, North Carolina: "The question and comment is not if Bush was on to something when he put Iran, Iraq and North Korea onto the axis of evil, but if, by doing so and invading one of the three, he put them on the path they are on."
Steve in Jacksonville, Florida: "Jack, I think maybe Washington, D.C., is the greatest threat to the United States."
And Tom in New Hampshire: "All are a danger to world stability, Jack. And in light of our country's birthday celebration, I would like to thank North Korea for celebrating with us. But wouldn't it have been cheaper for China to give the child a box of fireworks instead?"
And now, John, I'm going to go out and get a mouth transplant. That's...
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KING: I often don't -- I often don't know how you feel about these things, Jack, but I think have you clear when it comes to North Korea.
(LAUGHTER)
CAFFERTY: Well, it's a shame to see this program come to an end, isn't it, John?
(LAUGHTER)
KING: Have a great Fourth, Jack. Thanks for hanging in there with us.
And my thanks to CNN's team across the world, showing our global reach today during this dramatic breaking news, North Korea launching five missiles today.
I'm John King in Washington. Our coverage continues now from New York.
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