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The Situation Room
How Will Foley Scandal Impact Elections?; Arnold Schwarzenegger and Phil Angelides Debate Each Other This Weekend
Aired October 06, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And to our viewers, you are in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now, it is 4:00 p.m. in Washington where the Foley scandal is looming over Capitol Hill. One week after the former congressman resigned in disgrace, we will hear from the attorney for a young former congressional page who is at the center of the storm. This is a CNN exclusive.
Also, House Speaker Dennis Hastert facing at least one new Republican call to resign over his handling of the scandal. Plus, also getting some new support from some very high places.
And it is 3:00 p.m. in Hastert's home district in Illinois, where the scandal is reverberating just five weeks before the election. How will it influence races there and across the country? We will hear from the voters and the experts.
I'm Wolf Blitzer. You are in THE SITUATION ROOM.
It is the scandal that has been consuming Washington for a full week. And now, for the first time, we are learning about a young man at the center of it all, a former congressional page who received sexually explicit online messages allegedly sent by former Congressman Mark Foley. We will get updates in a moment from CNN White House Correspondent Suzanne Malveaux, our congressional correspondent Andrea Koppel. But first, CNN's Brian Todd is joining us. Brian has spoken to the young man's attorney. He has got some exclusive information for us -- Brian.
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, the attorney for a former page at the center of this scandal has given us the name of his client. Attorney Stephen Jones confirms he represents Jordan Edmund. Jones will not say Edmund exchanged Instant Messages and Congressman Foley. Edmund left the page program in 2002. The alleged exchanges, first reported by ABC News, are of an explicit nature.
Here is what Stephen Jones says about them.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHEN JONES, JORDAN EDMUND'S ATTORNEY: They read like some of the novels that are on the market, but I haven't read all of them and I don't know whether they're true or they've been edited. I'm still playing catch-up.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TODD: Jones says his client has not been in contact with the FBI yet, but says Edmund will cooperate fully with all investigations. We called Mark Foley's attorney, David Roth, for reaction to Stephen Jones' comments. He has not yet returned our calls. We'll have much more of this next hour -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right. A couple of questions. Stephen Jones, a lot of our viewers are going to remember he was the attorney for Timothy McVeigh who committed the Oklahoma City bombing.
TODD: That is correct. Mr. Jones is based out of Enid, Oklahoma, also has an office in Oklahoma City. Very famous for that representation of Timothy McVeigh.
BLITZER: And he is going to be joining us live here in THE SITUATION ROOM in the next hour. Also, what is he say, Brian? What are you hearing about some of these Internet suggestions, some Republicans suggesting, you know what, this whole thing is a prank, a hoax and there is no there, there.
TODD: We asked him about that item in The Drudge Report. He said very clearly he cannot rule that in, he cannot rule that out. He says that he is not saying it was not a prank but later in the interview, CNN pressed him on that. He said that he does not read The Drudge Report, it is not part of his regular reading and then, quote: "It sounds like a piece of fiction." Which does -- it is similar to a comment that he made yesterday on that.
Now also important to note that ABC News says its sources indicate that that report by The Drudge Report is not true, that their report that this could be a hoax is not true.
BLITZER: So based on what he knows, he says The Drudge Report item sounds like a piece of fiction?
TODD: That is right. He did say that, but also important to note that he said he is not ruling it in or out.
BLITZER: All right. We are going to speak to him and we will see what we can get when -- we will be talking to him live in the next hour right here in THE SITUATION ROOM. Brian, thank you.
Meanwhile, all eyes here in Washington are on the house speaker, Dennis Hastert, facing at least one new Republican call to resign his post over the scandal. He is also getting some new support, though, from some very high places. Let's bring in our congressional correspondent Andrea Koppel -- Andrea.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, among them, President Bush and the top leadership -- Republican leadership in the House and the Senate yesterday, following Speaker Hastert's press conference in which he not only accepted responsibility, but he apologized. He made clear that he wasn't going to resign. According to GOP leadership staff I've spoken to today, they feel that some of the pressure now is off Speaker Hastert. But that doesn't mean that all candidates, Republican candidates across the country are feeling the heat is off of them.
In particular, one Tom Kean Jr., who is a Republican candidate who is trying to unseat the Democratic incumbent, Bob Menendez, in New Jersey, he issued a statement today distancing himself from Speaker Hastert and calling for him to resign.
In his statement, he said: "Hastert should resign as speaker. He is the head of the institution. And this happened on his watch. I urge House leaders to go further by appointing an outside panel to review the matter immediately."
Now Democratic candidates in various congressional races are also seizing upon this Foley scandal to their political advantage. Among them, Baron Hill, who is running in Indiana in the 9th District, he is the first person now, the first candidate to run an ad using specifically Mark Foley's image in his campaign ad.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Washington is a mess, and Mike Sodrel is part of it. Convicted Congressman Cunningham gave Sodrel $2,000 for his campaign. Indicted Majority Leader Tom DeLay gave Sodrel $20,000. And 77,000 from the House leadership, who knew about, but did nothing to stop sexual predator Congressman Foley.
Millionaire Mike, he says nothing, and refuses to return the money. You want change in Washington? Then change the people you send.
BARON HILL (D), INDIANA CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: I'm Baron Hill, and I approve this message.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KOPPEL: Now we should say, Wolf, that Mike Sodrel, who is running -- who is the incumbent in Indiana 9, has not had an opportunity yet to respond to the charges in these ads, but one footnote, tomorrow in the Saturday Democratic response to the president's radio address, Patty Wetterling, who is running in Minnesota, is the Democratic candidate there, she was the first person to use the Foley scandal in her ad earlier this week.
She, of course, has been a longtime children's advocate, for the last 17 years, and she is going to be delivering the democrat rebuttal to the president's address tomorrow -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Andrea, thanks very much.
Tom Kean Jr. trying to establish his independence, if you will, going out and calling for the speaker to step down, we will watch that race in New Jersey very closely. The scandal is hampering efforts by Republicans to stay on message as they campaign to keep control of Congress. Even President Bush is having trouble though getting his message out. Our White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux is joining us now with more on that -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, as one White House insider put it to me this way, he says this is a management issue regarding Hastert, not a policy issue. In his words he said it is not like the Republicans have been painted the party of pedophilia.
So he says certainly the White House can afford to back Hastert. So the focus is just get to the November 7th midterm elections, stop the bleeding, but that has been very difficult to do.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX (voice-over): The president's megaphone might as well have been turned off.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: They say that Iraq is a distraction in the war on terror. I strongly disagree.
MALVEAUX: Mr. Bush's three-day campaign swing out West was meant to try out new sharp rhetoric to paint the Democrats as weak on terror in the lead-up to the midterm elections.
BUSH: They talk tough on terror but when it comes time -- when their votes are counted, their softer side comes out.
MALVEAUX: But the Foley flood in Washington all but drowned out his message. The congressional cybersex scandal grabbing headlines, feeding 24 hour news.
THOMAS MANN, THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: It just suffocated the president's message. It ensured that it would get little play in the media and little public attention.
MALVEAUX: Mr. Bush struggled to get the attention back onto his agenda. But a series of rapid fire school shootings in three states forced him to confront the news of the day. At the George W. Bush Elementary School in California, he addressed school safety and then made the awkward turn to the Foley scandal.
BUSH: Families have every right to expect that when they send their children to be a congressional page in Washington, that those children will be safe.
MALVEAUX: While distancing itself from the controversy, the White House also tried to minimize the political damage surrounding the Republican leadership's handling of the crisis.
BUSH: I fully support Speaker Hastert's call for an investigation by law enforcement into this matter. MALVEAUX: As the scandal mushroomed, the president's advance on immigration, education and the economy went largely unnoticed. And the frustration grew.
TONY SNOW, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: You guys write about the Foley scandal morning, noon and night, it seems to me that the president is talking about things that matter.
MALVEAUX: Some political analysts believe it may be too late to turn the tide.
MANN: There is no question but that the modest gains the president made in August and September have now been reversed.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX: But the Foley crisis does seem to work in some way an advantage to the administration. The book, of course, Bob Woodward's "State of Denial," has been knocked out of the spotlight. That, of course, accusing the president and the administration being dishonest with the American people over the Iraq War -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Suzanne, thank you very much. Suzanne Malveaux, Brian Todd, Andrea Koppel, they are all part of the best political team on television. So is Jack Cafferty. And he is standing by with "The Cafferty File" -- Jack.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, the situation in Iraq is, quote, "drifting sideways," and the U.S. should consider a, quote, "change in course if the violence doesn't diminish." Guess who said that? Republican Senator John Warner, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee and a strong supporter of President Bush.
Warner just returned from Iraq and he is particularly worried that the government of prime minister al-Maliki is not cracking down on the sectarian militias. His concern is apparently well-founded. The U.S. military announced today more than 12,000 Iraqi police have been wounded or killed in Iraq over the last two years.
Thirty-five more bodies were found in Baghdad today, many of them with hands bound and showing signs of torture. It is only the 6th of October and already this month, 21 American soldiers have been killed in Iraq, 2,735 American soldiers have been killed since the start of the war.
Here's the question: What does it mean when senior Republicans, such as Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner, begin to question President Bush's strategy in Iraq? E-mail your thoughts to CaffertyFile@CNN.com, or go to CNN.com/CaffertyFile -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Thank you, Jack. Jack Cafferty will be back later this hour.
Coming up, impact from the Foley scandal. How will it affect the midterm election, now only a few weeks away? We will take a closer look at the possible impact race-by-race in some of the most heated contests across the U.S.
Also, how is the scandal playing in the home state of the House Speaker Dennis Hastert? We are going to take you there live to hear what voters in Illinois are saying.
Plus, one Republican congressman is raising some eyebrows with comments that would seem at least to some to blame the victims, at least in part, for the Foley scandal. Representative Chris Cannon of Utah, he is standing by to join us live. He is going to explain exactly what he meant. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back. The allegations against Mark Foley destroyed his own congressional career. Will they also wreck the political hopes of several other Republicans? CNN's Keith Oppenheim is following some very tight congressional races in Illinois. Keith is joining us now live from Illinois.
Is the Foley scandal having an impact already in that state, Keith?
KEITH OPPENHEIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, it very well may well. One of the questions that we are asking here in Illinois is, what effect will the scandal have, particularly in congressional districts like here in Chicago's western suburbs that have been traditional Republican strongholds?
And as one political expert explained to us, the outlook would be a lot different if this story had broken a month ago.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
OPPENHEIM (voice-over): In politics it's all about timing. And some experts believe it's bad timing for Republicans. The Mark Foley scandal is getting attention in October just when voters are making decisions.
DON ROSE, POLITICAL CONSULTANT: With Hastert still in there and an investigation still going on, it becomes a very significant item for November. It's only five weeks now.
OPPENHEIM: Chicago political consultant Don Rose believes the scandal could make a difference in tight congressional races because social conservatives may turn away from voting altogether, regardless of what the evidence eventually shows.
ROSE: I can't think of any hotter buttons right now than the issue of pedophilia, particularly coming after a church scandal, and now the issue of homosexuality in Republican ranks. This is -- just sort of shatters the shell for a lot of people.
OPPENHEIM: One tight race in suburban Chicago is the 6th District where longtime Congressman Henry Hyde is stepping down. Republican State Senator Peter Roskam faces and disabled war veteran Tammy Duckworth. To be sure, some don't believe the scandal will impact voters' decisions at all.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't think they're paying as much attention as the media is.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This issue with Foley has got nothing to do with the race here.
OPPENHEIM: But others who said they often vote Republican acknowledged the scandal has taken them aback.
(on camera): Are you telling me that you're basically turned off by your own party, by the Republicans?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. I don't like the way it's being handled.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I guess the Republican Party has always been the virtuous party and it is kind of a hazard now to make that self-proclamation.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
OPPENHEIM: Wolf, one of the voters I spoke with today who lives in the 6th Congressional District here says that he believes that other voters in his area will be much more affected by the war in Iraq than by the Foley scandal. And that may be valid. But the question is, will the issue be big enough to have some effect in close races?
Back to you.
BLITZER: All right. Keith, thanks very much. Good question to ask.
Meanwhile, Utah Republican Congressman Chris Cannon is raising some eyebrows after some controversial comments on the role of the congressional pages in the unfolding Mark Foley scandal. Cannon's remarks were caught on a local radio program and it's all over the Internet right now. Let's bring in our Internet reporter, Jacki Schechner. She has some details -- Jacki.
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, Republican Chris Cannon was at a fundraiser in Utah when he was interviewed by a Salt Lake City political blogger named Ethan Millard. And a little clip of that interview showed up on a radio show in Salt Lake City called the Nightside Project.
Here is Cannon being asked about congressional pages' interaction online with former Congressman Mark Foley.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
REP. CHRIS CANNON (R), UTAH: Precocious kids. It looks like maybe that this one e-mail was a prank where you had a bunch of kids sitting around egging this guy on. You know? So it is -- the world is a complicated place and we just have to do the best we can.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
SCHECHNER: Now the idea that this was a prank is an unsubstantiated rumor that is swirling around online but it's just that, a rumor. Cannon goes on to talk about how it's parents' responsibility to educate kids on the dangers of the Internet and warn them about the creepy people that are online.
Now Utah Democrats have reacted right away to this, saying that the Republicans have been trying to make this the -- or blame this on the Democrats rather and make this political scandal -- or this Foley scandal, rather, political. Excuse me.
But Cannon is saying that his comments were taken out of context. He's going to be here in the 5:00 hour and we will be able to ask him about that. The radio station says that any suggestion that these comments were taken out of context, Wolf, is false.
BLITZER: Thank you, Jacki, for that. We'll speak to Chris Cannon, that is coming up in the next hour.
And remember, for the latest campaign news at any time, check out the "Political Ticker." Go to CNN.com/ticker.
Still ahead, it's been one week since the Mark Foley scandal broke first. In today's "Strategy Session," we'll take a hard look at whether the bombshell allegations will lead to a voter rebellion in next week's elections.
And race by race, where Republicans could see their biggest chances of losing control of Congress.
And why there are -- there is at least one trouble spot for Democrats as well. We'll tell you what it is. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: On our "Political Radar" today, the California governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, weighing in on the sensitive issue of immigration at a campaign stop in L.A.'s Chinatown. He was asked today about assimilation. Schwarzenegger said that some Mexican immigrants, quote, "try to stay Mexican when they come to the United States." He added that based on his own immigrant experience, they should make an effort to become "part of America." His words.
Democratic Senate candidate Claire McCaskill got some star- studded help. Actor Michael J. Fox hosted a fundraiser for her in St. Louis, Missouri, last night. Fox, who has Parkinson's disease, supports embryonic stem cell research, which McCaskill has made a key part of her campaign. McCaskill's opponent, the incumbent Republican, Jim Talent, calls the research unethical.
Time for some political payback. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin says he promised his support for embattled Congressman William Jefferson. Now he has delivered. Nagin says Jefferson backed his reelection bid so he is reciprocating. Jefferson is under federal investigation for alleged bribery. CNN's Susan Roesgen is in New Orleans. She is going to have details. That is coming up in the next hour right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
A flying companion says Senator Jim Inhofe believes a faulty rudder may have caused a heart-stopping spin-out yesterday evening. Aviation authorities say a single engine plane piloted by the Oklahoma Republican landed in Tulsa's Riverside Airport. After the touchdown, the plane fishtailed and spun around. No one was hurt. The incident was described as, quote, "pretty minor."
Other news that we're following right now -- let's get to that in a moment. Right here, standby. Up next, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, he is out on the campaign trail. He is trying to get ready to debate his Democratic challenger. But how could he end up hurting himself?
And it cost Mark Foley his job in Congress. Will the allegations against him also bring down some key Republican leaders? We'll take a closer look at the continuing political fallout from the Foley scandal as the investigations heat up. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington. The house speaker, Dennis Hastert, still feeling heat over the Mark Foley e-mail scandal. With elections just around the corner, will there be more political hell to pay as the affair evolves and who will pay it? Joining us now for today's "Strategy Session" are radio talk show host Bill Press and Terry Jeffrey, he's the editor of Human Events.
Guys, thanks very much for coming in. Here is what James Baker, a smart guy, the former secretary of state, said -- the first secretary of state for the first President Bush said earlier today: "If they throw Denny Hastert off the sled to slow down the wolves, it won't be long before you will be crying, hey, you have got to throw somebody else over because they knew about it too."
Would it be smart, put on your strategist hat right now, for the Republicans to throw Denny Hastert off the sled?
BILL PRESS, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: If I were advising the Republican leadership, which I'm not and never will, right? I would say, the last thing you want to do is circle the wagons at a time like this. I think you need -- somebody has got to go. I think it has to be the top guy.
I think you have to do -- you have to stop the hemorrhaging, stop the bleeding. Denny Hastert has been speaker all of this time. These e-mails maybe go back six, eight years. Hastert has got to go.
As long as he is there, Wolf, as long as he's there, it's going to continue to be an issue. And the man who was in charge and did nothing will still be in power. BLITZER: He's on the same page as the editorial page of The Washington Times, which said Hastert must go, and the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from New Jersey, Tom Kean Jr., who today says Hastert must go as well.
Terry, you're an independent thinker, what do you say?
TERRY JEFFREY, HUMAN EVENTS: Well, it is a hard call. I think you have to put political expediency aside and decide what is the right thing. I think given the facts that we know now, Wolf, it is a plausible interpretation that Dennis Hastert was a good guy. He was trying to do the right thing and he made a serious error in judgment.
I think that's the way a lot of Republicans are looking at it. And I agree with James Baker, if that's your view and you throw this guy off the sled for political expediency, that's not the right thing to do.
BLITZER: Here is how Senator Hillary Clinton put it yesterday, when she was asked about this affair.
Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: Ultimately, you know, it's up to the Republicans. They're in charge. They have to make the decisions. But it's also up to the voters. And this is an important piece of information for voters.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Well, which raises this question. And I will put it to you, first, Bill.
How important -- four-and-a-half weeks from now, the elections are going to happen. This specific Foley fiasco, how important will that be when voters go in and make their decisions?
PRESS: First, I have got to say, I think Hillary Clinton is doing the right thing, because I haven't heard one Democrat call for Denny Hastert to resign. I think this is a Republican problem, and they have got to resolve it.
But I think this issue really resonates with voters, Wolf. I will tell you why. Most voters are not going to analyze the national intelligence estimate, like you and I have, and Terry, right? Most voters are not going to read the Bob Woodward book.
But voters get this issue, because it's about protecting kids, and a congressman who preyed on them, and leadership who did nothing to stop him.
BLITZER: How important will this issue be?
JEFFREY: I think it's a potential disaster for the Republican Party.
Before this happened, I thought the House was on a razor's edge. The Republicans had a chance of holding it by a few seats. With this going on, Wolf, number one, there are going to be some voters who move away from the Republican Party, if this continues through the election.
The second thing is, the message the Republicans wanted to take into the election is getting dried out. For example, the House spent all summer setting up this bill that they passed last week that the president signed to build 700 miles of wall along the Mexican border. That is not in the news. That's the message they wanted going into election Tuesday. It's not out there.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: And on top of all of this...
PRESS: Yes.
BLITZER: ... Senator John Warner, the Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, comes back from a visit to Iraq, and says, you know what? The Iraqi government and the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, they have two to three months to get their act together, to deal with the death squads, the militias. Otherwise, the U.S. is going to have to reconsider its stance.
PRESS: Which -- which is another point, Wolf.
I think this Foley scandal does not stand alone. It is on top of Iraq. You know, it's on top of the NIE. It's on top of Abramoff. It's on top of the Woodward book. And it, in itself, is a serious matter. The president is out in California slamming the Democrats harder than he ever has. And, as Suzanne Malveaux showed us at the top of the hour, nobody hears him. Nobody is listening. This thing has overtaken everybody.
And I think they have got to get it off the front page. You have got to stop talking about it. And, again, I say, as long as hasn't -- I think the Democrats -- the best thing that Hastert could do for the Democrats was...
BLITZER: All right.
PRESS: ... to stay where he is.
BLITZER: Button it up, Terry.
JEFFREY: Well, far more than the Hastert-Foley crisis, this country has a crisis in Iran. We have all an interest -- excuse me, in Iraq, where Iran has a hand.
We all have an interest in making sure we get a stable government there, and chaos doesn't break out. The good thing is, when Warner comes back with this news at the same time Condoleezza Rice is over there, starting to bangs head a little bit on the people in the coalition government, particularly Prime Minister Maliki, if they can't make an accommodation with the Sunnis that leads to peace in Iraq, there is no military solution there.
Condoleezza Rice has to be totally engaged in this. And the Democrats have to be rooting for her.
BLITZER: All right. We have got to leave it there, unfortunately, guys, because we are out of time.
Have a great weekend.
PRESS: All right.
BLITZER: Bill Press, Terry Jeffrey...
PRESS: Thank you, Wolf.
BLITZER: .. thanks very much.
And, remember, for the latest campaign news at any time, literally 24/7, check out the political ticker. Easy way to do that, go to CNN.com/ticker. You will want to go there early and often.
Up ahead right here in THE SITUATION ROOM: He has been a star in the movies and on the ballot, but will the California governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, falter at his upcoming debate? Why some say he could be his own worst enemy. We will tell you what is going on.
And we're closing in on the midterm elections. We are going to track some extremely close races that could make the difference for which party ends up controlling the House and Senate.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Only a little bit more than four weeks from now, Democrats hope to do to the Republicans what the GOP did to them back in 1994.
So, will the Mark Foley scandal help Democrats accomplish their goal of seizing control of the U.S. Congress? Or will the scandal be yesterday's news?
And joining us now, two very astute political analysts, Amy Walter of "The Cook Political Report," Stu Rothenberg of "The Rothenberg Political Report."
Guys, thanks very much for coming in.
AMY WALTER, SENIOR EDITOR, "THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT": Thanks.
STUART ROTHENBERG, "THE ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Sure.
BLITZER: We are going to do this a lot between now and the election, November 7. Let's talk about the House of Representatives right now. It's in play -- Democrats clearly salivating. For our viewers, 231 Republicans right now in the House, 201 Democrats, one independent, three vacancies. The Democrats need to gain 15 seats to control the House.
Amy, is that doable right now?
WALTER: Oh, it's absolutely doable. I mean, it's always been doable, but now the question is just how much closer are we to a bigger number than 15?
BLITZER: Is -- is it a certainty that the Democrats will be the majority in the House, Stu?
ROTHENBERG: Oh, no, no. Look, we still have a month to go. It's not a slam-dunk.
But, a month ago, I raised our projections to 15 to 20 seats for -- for the Democrats. I think they are positioned, they're poised, to take over the House, but it's not a done deal yet.
BLITZER: We have gone and looked at all 435 seats. And we conclude here at CNN that there are 22 seats really in play right now, all of them currently held by Republicans. They will be either vacancies or Republican incumbents seeking reelection.
Let's go through some of them, specifically the impact that the Mark Foley scandal could have. And we will go right to Florida 16, because Mark Foley, of course, resigned. He's not running for reelection. Joe Negron is the Republican candidate. Tim Mahoney is the Democrat. Negron's name will not even be on the ballot. That's a serious problem, because people could think they might be voting for Mark Foley.
WALTER: For Mark Foley, right. And that's -- and that's the whole problem with this race. I mean, that is why Negron is going to have just an incredibly uphill battle, trying to convince voters that, to vote for me, you actually have to vote for Foley. I just think that puts this in the Democratic column.
BLITZER: And that race wasn't even up for play. And now it looks like the Democrats could take it.
ROTHENBERG: That's right. Two weeks ago, it was safe Republican. Now it leans Democrat. That's a pretty dramatic change, Wolf.
WALTER: Yes.
BLITZER: Not far away, there's Clay Shaw, the incumbent, longtime incumbent, in Florida, running against Ron Klein. He barely won the last time, Clay Shaw.
How does it look this time? WALTER: Well, the political environment, that is what we have been talking about here, is just how much it's going to shift between now and November.
And the way that the environment looks right now, for people who sit, like Clay Shaw does, in these moderate districts, where moderate voters need to come out, keep supporting a Republican, it puts him in a tougher spot.
BLITZER: He has got problems?
ROTHENBERG: Yes. It's been a very close race. You have to wonder whether another dose of bad news for the Republicans could push this race to the Democratic side.
BLITZER: Well, the Foley is very bad news for Republicans.
ROTHENBERG: That's what I -- right, right.
BLITZER: Yes.
(CROSSTALK)
ROTHENBERG: You have stuff on the war against terror, obviously, the Woodward book. But now the Foley stuff could make the difference.
BLITZER: In my hometown of Buffalo, out in western New York, Tom Reynolds is now running for his life against Jack Davis, a very wealthy Democrat. How does that look?
WALTER: Yes. I mean, this is another race that wasn't on anybody's radar screen until now.
And, remember, Tom Reynolds, actually, in his last race, only took 56 percent of the vote against the same opponent. So, already, we know that there are some vulnerabilities there. You put these troubles on top of it, it makes for a real, real trouble spot.
BLITZER: And he's the guy who is in charge of the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee.
WALTER: Right.
BLITZER: He's trying to get Republicans elected.
ROTHENBERG: He is.
BLITZER: He might not even get himself reelected.
ROTHENBERG: Yes, absolutely.
Again, a couple months ago, this wasn't really a race. Democrats now have grown extremely optimistic. In the last 24 hours, they have got new information. They think they have got a good chance to win the seat. BLITZER: And one of the problems Reynolds has is, he was one of those Republican leaders who knew that there was a problem involving Mark Foley, inappropriate e-mail. And he sort of said: Well, I passed it on to my supervisor, the speaker, and that was that.
But, clearly, voters might not think that is that.
ROTHENBERG: When the Mark Foley scandal was about Mark Foley, that's one thing. But now it's about the Republican leadership. And that is a very different matter.
BLITZER: Let's go to Minnesota. There's a very interesting race, the Republican, Michele Bachmann, against Patty Wetterling. She has got a very specific reason why she is so passionate about this. Her son was kidnapped...
WALTER: That's right.
BLITZER: ... back in '89, and he apparently has never been found.
WALTER: That's right. And she has also worked closely with Foley on these issues in Congress. And, so, this is somebody who not only has a personal experience in her own life, but also, politically, an experience with this.
She now is talking about this on the campaign trail, hoping to make voters understand that her -- her personal story with an issue like this makes her a very good candidate to come to Congress.
BLITZER: Missing and exploited children.
WALTER: That's exactly right.
BLITZER: She is going to be giving the radio -- the Democratic radio response to the president's radio address this Saturday morning. The Democrats asked her to do it. I think they sense she could win this seat.
ROTHENBERG: Absolutely.
This race has been quite close. Actually, both parties have shown Wetterling up a handful of points. But this is basically a Republican-leaning district. Republicans thought they would come from behind, take it back, hold it. Now it's uncertain.
BLITZER: Let's talk about the Senate, right now, 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, one independent, Jeffords, who always -- almost always votes with the Democrats. The Democrats need six seats to get to 51, the majority. If it's 50/50, it's the Republicans who are the majority, because Dick Cheney is the vice president, the president of the Senate. He would break a tie in favor of Republicans.
One of the hottest races right now, a few months ago, it didn't look like it was going to be such a hot race, in Virginia, George Allen against Jim Webb. WALTER: Right.
And this is just a question now about who is going to be on the offensive going into these last couple of weeks. Clearly, for Allen, he has been the one that is on his heels. He wants to get back on his toes before we get in these last two weeks, change the debate, change the focus back on to a referendum between two candidates, rather than a referendum on one.
BLITZER: A lot of missteps by Allen lately -- this is a dead heat.
ROTHENBERG: It is.
This is another classic case, Wolf, where, a month, two months ago, this looked like a pretty solid Republican seat. And it -- this is a critical seat. The Democrats need a seat like this in play to have a chance to take over the Senate. And now it's all about George Allen. He has made the mistakes. It's about him.
If it's about him going into the first week in November, he's in big trouble.
BLITZER: In Tennessee, Harold Ford Jr., a member of the House, running guess Bob Corker, this is very close, too. The polls show it's nip and tuck.
WALTER: Well, and that's, I think, what was the most unexpected. When Bob Corker won the primary, the conventional wisdom was, well, Republicans are exactly where they want to be. They got the exact right candidate here.
But Ford did a very smart job. He sort of filled the vacuum. While he didn't have a primary, Republicans did, was able to define himself, and put this race where he wanted it to be.
BLITZER: He's African-American. A lot of people are going to be looking at this race, and I think they are going to be saying, if an African-American can be elected a Democratic senator from Tennessee, that opens a lot of doors for Barack Obama...
ROTHENBERG: Well, that...
BLITZER: ... in 2008.
ROTHENBERG: That is true.
But this is a perfect environment for Harold Ford. He has been running a great campaign. Democrats coalesced behind him. He is energetic. He is running as a moderate. But, remember, this is still a Republican-leaning state. And Republicans still have ammunition to paint him as a liberal.
BLITZER: Could it get much closer in Pennsylvania, where you have the incumbent Rick Santorum, Republican, against Bob Casey Jr.? He has got a well-known name. He's pretty popular there. WALTER: Well, we have been talking all year about whether this race was going to close up. It's opened and closed, in terms of the poll. But the bottom line still remains that Santorum has never been ahead, continues to be behind. As a well-known incumbent, if you're behind, even a month out, that sure spells real big trouble.
ROTHENBERG: I'm out on a limb on this one, Wolf. Rick Santorum has not gotten above 40, 41 percent of the vote. I think he's headed for defeat. I think Bob Casey is going to knock him off.
BLITZER: Ohio, another very close race, the incumbent Republican, Mike DeWine, Sherrod Brown, the Democrat -- very, very close in Ohio as well.
WALTER: Very close.
This is a -- the worse place to be a Republican right now is Ohio. It's basically the political equivalent of a toxic waste zone here. Because of scandals in state government, because of what is happening in Washington, in terms of scandals here, it has turned this, really, a referendum on those issues, rather than between the two candidates.
BLITZER: And I'm sure the Foley issue is not necessarily going to help Republicans in Ohio.
ROTHENBERG: Right. No, this is a classic case of Republicans trying to localize. Senator Mike DeWine wants to make it about Sherrod Brown, the Democratic challenger. Brown wants to make it about George Bush, the war in Iraq, and probably now about Republican ethics.
BLITZER: The moderate Republican Lincoln Chafee trying to get himself reelected in Rhode Island. Sheldon Whitehouse is the Democrat.
I saw a poll the other day showed Whitehouse ahead.
WALTER: Right.
Well, I mean, this is -- if there is any place that the president or Republicans are going to struggle, it's going to be in the Northeast. I mean, we say the national party has a flu up in New England. It's like the avian flu. I mean, it is bad, bad, bad to be a Republican up here. So, the real question is, it's not just Chafee going to against the tide. It's very, very heavy.
BLITZER: Let's go to Montana.
Conrad Burns, the incumbent Republican veteran there, running for his life against the Democrat, Jon Tester. Who -- what does it look like right now?
ROTHENBERG: Well, in most polling over the past many weeks, Tester has had a slight lead. He continues to hold that advantage. I think this race is too much about Conrad Burns. Tester is, I think, a reasonable alternative for voters in the state. I think this is a likely Democratic takeover.
BLITZER: Senator Jim Talent in Missouri, he has got a very close race...
WALTER: Yes.
BLITZER: ... against Claire McCaskill.
WALTER: We are going to watch this race on election night as the bellwether race. I mean, if we're talking about where's the firewall for Republicans, in terms holding their majority, it has to be in Missouri. They have told hold on.
BLITZER: All of those Senate races we just spoke out, the close ones, juicy ones, the tight ones, there are Republicans who are incumbents there.
There is a Democrat, though, who is in deep trouble, the only one that we assess right now who is in deep trouble, in New Jersey, Robert Menendez, against Tom Kean Jr., the son of the former governor of New Jersey.
How close is this race?
ROTHENBERG: Polls show it's even, been lots of polls in New Jersey. And, sometimes, they show Kean up by two or three, sometimes Menendez up.
This is unique circumstances. That's why the Republicans have a shot here. There is a wind at the back of all Democrats. But, in this case, you have got a Republican with a great name, with the name of a reformer, an outsider.
You have got a Democrat appointed to the Senate by a governor who is not nearly as popular as he once was when he was elected. You have got the ethics issue cutting toward the Republicans, not hurting the Republicans, but helping the Republican. This is an opportunity.
It's not easy for Tom Kean and the Republicans. It's still New Jersey. But they have got a shot here.
BLITZER: What do you think?
WALTER: I agree with absolutely everything there, which is that, if we're talking about Tennessee and all the assets that Harold Ford has going for him there, the one thing that is holding him back is the redness of that state. You know, it's a Republican state. And it -- the same is true for Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey.
BLITZER: You guys are going to be joining us here every week in THE SITUATION ROOM, as we get closer and closer and closer toward the election, November 7.
Guys, thanks very much for coming in.
ROTHENBERG: Sure. WALTER: Thanks, Wolf.
BLITZER: And coming up, a congressional page, a former congressional page, that is, who allegedly exchanged online conversations with former Congressman Mark Foley, he has now hired a high-profile lawyer. I will speak with that attorney, Stephen Jones. That's coming up, right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
And later this hour: Would you want to face off against the Terminator? Arnold Schwarzenegger's challenger in the governor's race will this weekend. We are going to take a closer look at the upcoming debate.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Let's check in with Zain Verjee. She has got a closer look at some other important stories making news.
Hi, Zain.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, Wolf.
State officials say air quality tests show nothing alarming so far in the wake of a spectacular overnight fire at a hazardous waste management plant. Still, thousands of residents near the Apex, North Carolina, facility have not been allowed back home yet. Hazmat teams are trying to determine exactly what chemicals were at the site. And they are assessing the risks. The fire was still burning this afternoon.
Memphis, Tennessee, investigators do not suspect arson in a fire that largely destroyed a historical downtown church. The roof of the First United Methodist Church caved in. Its steeples toppled. And some of the walls collapsed. Embers from the early-morning flames ignited, and damaged three nearby buildings which were part of a condo renovation. The church was built back in 1893.
Three people are dead, victims of a small plane crash today near a residential street in south suburban Atlanta. Henry County sheriff's officials say the single-engine Cessna, with four people on board, went down shortly after takeoff this morning. An aviation spokeswoman says it appears that the plane hit power lines as it took off. The fourth person was transported to an area hospital -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Zain, thank you.
Let's go up to New York and Jack Cafferty. He is standing by with "The Cafferty File" -- Jack.
CAFFERTY: What does it mean when senior Republicans, people like the Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, John Warner, begin to question President Bush's strategy in Iraq, which is exactly what Warner is doing? Paul writes from McLean, Virginia: "John Warner is my senator. I have written to him literally hundreds of times, trying to get him to ensure that we send adequate body armor with our boys to take care of the wounded at Walter Reed, and to try to reverse the course of this terrible, failed war. Always, his responses said, 'I'm so proud of this president.' It's an earthshaking event to see him on TV this morning, saying that we will need a change of course in Iraq if things don't settle down. 'Dear John, it's too late. Where were you, two years ago, when I first begged you for your help to change this terrible war?'"?
Sterling in Winters, Texas. He writes: "It's just down the road a bit from the Bush ranch in Crawford. It means there's one smart Republican in Washington, D.C. And I'm the other smart Republican in Texas, who shares Senator Warner's concerns."
Curtis in Boca Raton, Florida: "It means he's going to be just another voice that is ignored. I mean, how many former generals and military leaders who were in Iraq need to come out and say we need to change course?"
Michael writes from Sparks, Nevada, right next to my hometown: "All it means is, the Republican Party is scared. Their boy, President Bush, has poll ratings that are in the toilet. And they don't want to get flushed with him. President Bush has dropped the ball with the Iraq war. He dropped our troops into the middle of a meat grinder, with no real plan to get them out. I'm not Republican, but, if I was, I wouldn't the president anywhere near me in a political race. He's a liability, not an asset."
And Roger in Pinewood, Minnesota: "Jack, it's not a problem for this administration at all. The few viewers that watch the fair-and- balanced network tonight will learn that Senator Warner is just another cut-and-run Democrat" -- a reference to the fact that the F- word network repeatedly identified the Republican congressman Mark Foley as a Democrat the night the sex scandal story broke -- probably just an accident.
This weekend, on "IN THE MONEY," we will find out why the Dow's performance this week wasn't met with the same fanfare it was back in 2000. We will talk to an expert who says we're living in a different economic time now than we were then. She will also talk about whether it's time to think about investing in the market.
"IN THE MONEY" airs Saturday at 1:00, Sunday at 3:00. We invite you to join us.
Wolf never misses the show. And we hope you will watch it as well.
BLITZER: A lot of our viewers need to know that they can get more of Jack every weekend, Saturdays and Sundays, 1:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 p.m. Eastern. "IN THE MONEY," with Jack Cafferty, it's a great show.
I recommend it highly, Jack. CAFFERTY: Thank you. It's not sure what that is what anybody needs, more of me, but thank you anyway.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: They want more of Jack. And they will get it tomorrow and Sunday.
Still to come right here in THE SITUATION ROOM: a powerful senator sounding a little bit pessimistic about Iraq. In our next hour, the Armed Services chairman, John Warner -- you just heard Jack talk about it -- his warning about the country's future. We will have details of exactly what he is saying.
And up next: The California governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and his challenger go head to head. We are going to examine the stakes in what could be their one and only debate.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: It's their first face-off and maybe their only face- off.
The California governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and his challenger, Phil Angelides, will debate each other this weekend. And there's certainly a lot on the line.
CNN's Chris Lawrence is live for us in L.A. -- Chris.
CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, most experts agree that Phil Angelides left-wing have one hour on Saturday night to reverse the numbers and save his campaign.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE (voice-over): Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and challenger Phil Angelides face off for the first and only time Saturday night. And there's no debating, the stakes are different for both men.
ARNOLD STEINBERG, REPUBLICAN POLITICAL STRATEGIST: Angelides needs a home run. All Schwarzenegger has to do is just kind of coast.
LAWRENCE: Recent polls have the governor leading his Democratic opponent by anywhere from 10 to 17 points.
(On camera): But even some Republican strategists say, Schwarzenegger himself could reduce that lead during the debate.
STEINBERG: The governor has an uncanny ability to create his own crises by saying something utterly preposterous. So, we can never underestimate the possibility he will make an issue of himself in that debate.
LAWRENCE: Recently, that included his caught-on-tape comment about a -- quote -- "hot Latina" lawmaker"
But in other areas, Schwarzenegger has been shrewd. The governor has rebuffed accusations he can't work with Democrats. In fact, he has been photographed with actor George Clooney, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and union officials, but would not meet with George Bush when the president came to California.
ART TORRES, CHAIRMAN, CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY: I think the people see through that.
LAWRENCE: Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres is spending millions on TV ads, trying to tie the governor and president together in voters' minds.
TORRES: What the governor cannot walk away from is the fact that his entire top staff is from the Bush and Cheney staffs of the White House.
LAWRENCE: There's still a small number of undecided voters and a month to go, factors that may be more beneficial to California State Treasurer Phil Angelides than the incumbent.
JOE MATTHEWS, POLITICAL AUTHOR: Not just because it's an incumbent, but because it's an incumbent that everyone on planet Earth has heard of. So, it's -- it's -- you know, a tougher road for Arnold to -- to make converts.
LAWRENCE: But if the current poll numbers are anywhere close to accurate, he may not have to.
Chris Lawrence, CNN, Los Angeles.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE: In fact, Schwarzenegger has completely reversed his numbers from a year ago. This time last year, polls showed him with a near -- with a 59 percent disapproval rating. Today, 56 percent of the voters approve of his job performance -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Chris Lawrence, thank you very much.
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