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The Situation Room
U.S. Intel Trying to Verify NK Nuke Test Claim; Foley Scandal Moves Poll Numbers in Favor of Dems
Aired October 09, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And to our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now, blasting back at North Korea, President Bush accuses the communist nation of a provocative act for claiming it test-fired a nuclear bomb.
It's 4:00 p.m. here in Washington where top officials are assessing the threat to the United States. They're also assessing military options. It's a high stakes bout of nuclear brinksmanship. Who might blink first, North Korea or the world? I'll talk live to the former U.S. ambassador of the United Nations, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson.
And there is no break for Republicans from the Mark Foley scandal. We have some eye-popping new poll numbers on the fallout for the house speaker, the GOP leadership, the battle for Congress.
I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
This hour, experts are trying to determine if North Korea really exploded a nuclear bomb or whether it's all just blowing smoke. Kim Jong Il's communist regime says it conducted a successful underground nuclear test today. Some scientists say there's no doubt, and to back up North Korea's claims, noting the blast was relatively small and it could have been a failure.
President Bush says North Korea is posing a threat to global peace and security whether or not its nuclear test claim is true. And he's urging the United Nations Security Council to respond immediately. Our Brian Todd is investigating possible, possible military options.
First of all, let's go to our White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux with the Bush administration's reaction -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, White House officials say it could take hours or even days before U.S. intelligence can confirm whether or not this was a nuclear test. But really either way, of course, it has already changed the political equation, raising the stakes, not only for North Korea's Kim Jong Il, but also President Bush.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) MALVEAUX (voice-over): President Bush declared North Korea's test a threat to international peace and security.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The United States condemns this provocative act. Once again, North Korea has defied the will of the international community and the international community will respond.
MALVEAUX: But it was more than three years ago when Mr. Bush warned...
BUSH: We will not tolerate nuclear weapons in North Korea.
DAVID ALBRIGHT, FORMER U.N. WEAPONS INSPECTOR: The United States credibility is on the line.
MALVEAUX: So early morning, Mr. Bush made a round of urgent calls to the leaders of China, South Korea, Russia and Japan to ensure those once engaged in talks to convince North Korea to dismantle its nuclear program would respond with one voice.
JAMES SASSER, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CHINA: You have a paranoid, isolated, dangerous state now on the verge of possessing nuclear weapons.
ALBRIGHT: There really could be a nuclear war in Northeast Asia. And so you have to now focus on this problem much more and this test scares people.
MALVEAUX: That fear, nuclear weapons experts say, could work in the Bush administration's favor. The president has been pushing the U.N. Security Council to impose tougher sanctions against North Korea for pursuing its nuclear ambitions. Today the council condemned North Korea's actions, but its neighbors are nervous about how Pyongyang might react to a resolution with real teeth.
ALBRIGHT: China has made clear that it sees tough economic sanctions as just provoking North Korea toward a military confrontation.
MALVEAUX: Japan and South Korea fear its neighbor's regime could collapse. North Korea has consistently called for the U.S. to conduct one-on-one talks. But U.S. officials reiterated the Bush administration will not be sucked into a showdown with North Korea, that it will only engage in regional negotiations. Many political and nuclear analysts believe that approach is a mistake.
ALBRIGHT: The United States holds the key and it has to talk directly to North Korea. It has to be able to make a deal because in the end, North Korea fears the United States the most and most worries about a U.S. attack or a U.S. effort to destroy the regime.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX: The Bush administration is really emphasizing diplomacy, not military action, but the truth of the matter is -- Wolf, is that U.S. officials quietly acknowledge they will really have no other choice -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right. Suzanne, thanks very much. The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously today on a statement opposing North Korea's purported nuclear test, but it's unclear whether the entire council will back Washington's call for leveling economic sanctions against the communist regime.
China and Russia, which have veto power on the council, have opposed sanctions on Iran for its nuclear defiance, and amid this new diplomatic crisis, South Korea's foreign minister was formally nominated by the Security Council today to be the next U.N. secretary- general. The U.N. General Assembly is expected to approve Ban Ki- Moon's nomination in the next week or two. He would replace Kofi Annan in January.
Now let's consider the possibility of a military response to North Korea's nuclear threat. Our Brian Todd has been talking to insiders about various war scenarios, which no one wants but which everyone has to plan for -- Brian.
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, Wolf. And the experts we spoke with today say the chances for conflict are still very small even after North Korea's claim of a nuclear test. Given how hostilities might unfold on the peninsula, they say that is a relief.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TODD (voice-over): On a peninsula that has been heavily militarized and preparing for confrontation for more than 50 years, scenarios for war are detailed and frightening. We discussed them with a former senior U.S. Army intelligence officer assigned to Korea, a former Delta Force commander who also has a CIA background, and a former strategic planner at the National War College who developed a war game on Korea.
They all make clear war is a very remote possibility, so the prospect of a U.S. preemptive strike.
MAJ. JEFFREY BEATTY, FORMER DELTA FORCE CMDR.: If you're going to do a preemptive strike, you have got to make sure you get everything because if you don't, they are going to launch what they have left and they're going to probably launch a full-scale attack against the south.
TODD: Our experts say if America struck first, the best case scenario is casualties in the tens of thousand on both sides. If North Korea attacked first, they say, thousands of its special operations commandos would likely swarm into the south from the air and sea, linking up with sleeper agents who have already infiltrated through tunnels. Then...
BRIG. GEN. JAMES MARKS (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Step two would be they have to secure the Demilitarized Zone that separates north from south, and they would do that with light infantry, simply to hold the shoulders of the penetration, not go very deep but to hold the door open, if you will.
TODD: Holding the door for North Korea's heavily armored million man army to push toward Seoul and points south. At the same time, the North Koreans would launch missiles.
MARKS: They would be conventionally tipped. We have to assume they would be chemically tipped.
TODD: Prompting U.S. forces to launch air strikes on North Korean artillery positions, many of which can be hidden in deep underground bunkers. And inevitably, experts say, U.S. and North Korean ground forces would engage, likely on very difficult terrain.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TODD: Difficult terrain in what has turned into a very urbanized region over the past 50 years, that means possibly hundreds of thousands of casualties, military and civilian, and that is leaving out North Korea's nuclear capability which our experts say is too crude to be used effectively at the moment -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right. Brian, thanks very much. We are going to have more on this story with Jack Cafferty, that is coming up.
But let's turn now to a radioactive scandal here in Washington. There is new evidence today that Republicans on Capitol Hill knew about former Congressman Mark Foley's sexually charged messages to teenage boys years before they became public. Congressman Jim Kolbe's office confirms that a former page contacted the Arizona Republican back in the year 2000 to complain about an inappropriate e-mail he got from Foley.
Kolbe's spokeswoman tells CNN it's not clear if Kolbe directly confronted Foley about the complaint or if it was handled by staff. But she says it was Kolbe's understanding that, quote, "corrective action was taken." Kolbe has been open in recent years about the fact that he is gay, unlike Foley, who hid his sexual orientation until this scandal broke.
Meantime, a former congressional aide who says he warned GOP about Foley's behavior more than two years ago expects to testify before the House Ethics Committee this week. Kirk Fordham says he notified the speaker Dennis Hastert's office before 2005, a charge Hastert's chief of staff is strongly denying. Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider is joining us now from Foley's home state of Florida with more on the scandal and the numbers.
We are getting a lot of new numbers now in our latest poll on its impact -- Bill.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Wolf, is the Mark Foley scandal having an impact on voters? We have the evidence.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) SCHNEIDER (voice-over): President Bush's job approval is pretty bad, 39 percent. Congress' job approval is worse, 28 percent. More than 60 percent of Americans disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. The Mark Foley controversy has taken a toll.
REP DENNIS HASTERT (R-IL), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: When you talk about the page issue and what's happened in the Congress, I'm deeply sorry that this has happened.
SCHNEIDER: Three-quarters of the public feel Republican leaders in Congress handled the Foley matter inappropriately. Most Republicans feel that way, too. Most people believe the failure of Republican leaders to investigate the matter was a deliberate cover- up, not because they were unaware of the serious and inappropriate nature of Foley's behavior.
And most think Dennis Hastert should resign as speaker of the house. More than a third of the Republicans think Hastert should resign. Is the controversy likely to affect the midterm vote? Among all registered voters, the impact looks small. The Democrats lead over the Republicans nationwide has gone from 13 to 16 points, a statistically insignificant change.
But there's a gap in voter motivation. Democrats are more enthusiastic than Republicans about voting this year. That could account for the shift among likely voters. Among those likely to vote, Democrats had an 11-point lead in the vote for Congress last week. The Democrats lead among likely voters have now nearly doubled to 21 percent.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: The scandal seems to have hurt all members of Congress. Ethics ratings for members of both parties have gone down since last year. But congressional Republicans are rated as less ethical than congressional Democrats -- Wolf.
BLITZER: And later, we're going to take a look and see if how this North Korea crisis could have an impact politically here a month before the election. Bill, thanks very much. We're going to get back to Bill shortly and see how the Foley scandal is affecting a very close race in the district next to Foley, that's coming up later this hour. And remember, Bill Schneider as all you of know, is part of the best political team on television.
So is Jack Cafferty. And he is in New York for a new week of the "Cafferty File" -- Jack.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Happy to be aboard. The U.N. Security Council quick to come out with a statement condemning North Korea's reported nuclear test. President Bush promised this morning that the international community would respond. But in the end, that response may not be totally unified, that's because it's not clear at this time if all members of the Security Council will go along with U.S.-backed economic sanctions against North Korea. Russia and China have been vague about whether they would support sanctions. Remember, both those countries opposed U.N. sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program. So here is the question: How should the international community respond to North Korea's claims of nuclear test? You can e-mail your thoughts to caffertyfile@cnn.com, or go to cnn.com/caffertyfile -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Thanks very much, Jack, for that.
Coming up, much more on the crisis with North Korea. I'll speak live with someone who has been through nuclear negotiations with North Korea, the former U.N. ambassador, the current New Mexico governor, Bill Richardson, he is standing by.
And in the next hour, Chris Hill, the top U.S. negotiator in dealing with North Korea.
Plus, will the Foley scandal keep conservatives away from the polls on Election Day? We are gauging the pulse of religious voters.
And later, much more on our brand new poll. Some pretty amazing numbers. Do our new numbers spell huge trouble for the Republicans in Congress? I'll ask Donna Brazile and Bay Buchanan, they are standing by live for today's "Strategy Session."
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Let's check in with Zain Verjee. She is joining us from New York with a closer look at some other stories making news -- Zain.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, today, Iraq's vice president has buried a third sibling. Insurgents gunned down the brother of Iraqi Vice President Tariq Hashimi, a Sunni district in northern Baghdad this morning. Lieutenant General Amir al-Hashimi, an Iraqi defense ministry adviser, was killed by gunmen who entered his home in military uniforms. The vice president's sister and another brother were killed more than five months ago in separate attacks.
Iraqi authorities have arrested the head of the mess hall where hundreds of Iraqi police were sickened by their Sunday evening meal. An interior ministry spokesman says preliminary tests suggest the food poisoning was the result of negligence. But an Iraqi military spokesman says that it is likely the poisoning was intentional. He says no one died from the tainted food. Four officers were hospitalized.
The U.S. military says the U.S. soldier with the multinational division in Baghdad was killed today when his patrol came under fire in the eastern part of the city. His death brings the number of U.S. deaths since the conflict began to 2,745.
"An Army of one" will give way to "Army strong." That's the new slogan the U.S. Army will roll out next month in its battle to win the hearts and minds of recruitable Americans. Army Secretary Francis J. Harvey announced the new $200 million a year multimedia campaign today. The Army missed its 2005 recruitment goal by the widest margin in more than two decades. Larger financial incentives helped it bounce back this year.
Islamist forces in Somalia have declared holy war on neighboring Ethiopia. They did so after the Somali government, helped by Ethiopian forces, seized the town of Buur Hakaba today. The town, which is about 30 miles from Mogadishu, had been controlled by pro- Islamist fighters. The take-over was short, the government contingent left midday without any explanation -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Zain, thanks very much. We'll get back to you. And let's get back, though, now to the scandal that's clearly having an impact on the battle for Congress. As we reported, our new poll suggests the Mark Foley fiasco has made an impression on voters nationwide. But will it influence individual races, especially those where Christian conservative votes are key? Let's go back to CNN's Mary Snow. She's in the far northern end of what's called the Bible Belt. She is joining us from Norfolk, Virginia -- Mary.
MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, some say evangelicals lack the energy they had in recent years to get out to vote, and it couldn't come at a worse time for Republicans.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SNOW (voice-over): Has their faith in the Republican Party been shaken enough to keep Christian conservative voters from casting ballots on Election Day? Here in the northern tip of the Bible Belt, some say the Mark Foley scandal is just putting more distance between evangelicals and Republicans.
CHARLES DUNN, REGENT UNIV. SCHOOL OF GOVT.: Mark Foley is supposedly one of them and he's done that. Well, that demoralizes them. So the -- right now, they're saying, wow, we have that in our midst.
SNOW: Charles Dunn is a dean at Regent University, the school founded by Christian televangelist Pat Robertson. Here in this Christian conservative stronghold, many church-goers told us they view the Mark Foley scandal as a personal sin and don't hold the GOP accountable. But they also say there is an overall unease with Washington, including the White House.
PAT DIFFLEY, U.S. MARINE CORPS (RET.): Some people within the Republican Party, maybe not conservatives, but within the Republican Party have not been holding the values that we hold dear.
SNOW: Pat Diffley says he'll vote on Election Day. A new CNN poll among born-again Christians shows only one in 10 voters say the Foley matter will make it less likely they will vote. Republican strategist Frank Luntz says Christian conservatives won't vote Democrat so they may not vote at all as a way of voicing dissatisfaction. Luntz says even a 5 percent of drop in votes can make a difference in tight congressional races. FRANK LUNTZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: All it takes for a seat to shift is for a small percentage of religious conservatives to decide, you know what, I'm not going to vote out of protest.
SNOW: If that does happen, one race that could feel the impact, Virginia's 2nd District where Republican incumbent Congresswoman Thelma Drake is in a heated race against her Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. This and other races, say observers, could hinge on the choice of Christian conservatives.
DUNN: To the extent that they are demoralized, the Democratic Party has a better chance to capture control of the House and possibly the Senate.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SNOW: And, Wolf, some here in Virginia say it will take a miracle to energize the conservative base to get out to vote, but others here say they don't expect to have a major impact on voter turnout -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Mary Snow, reporting for us, thank you Mary.
And coming up, we'll have more on the Foley scandal. Our new poll shows the controversy making an impact with voters. Donna Brazile and Bay Buchanan may not necessarily see eye-to-eye over all the new numbers. We'll tell you what is going on in today's "Strategy Session."
Plus, what is the political fallout from the North Korean nuclear test? Will the crisis impact the November election only a month away? Jeff Greenfield is standing by with his take.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
BLITZER: It has been anticipated now for days, but there has been a huge commercial transaction. Word just coming in. Let's check in with Jacki Schechner.
Jacki, tell our viewers what we've learned.
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: We just got news that Google has announced it is buying YouTube. The deal is worth $1.6 billion in stock. YouTube is the video viewing and sharing site where anyone can upload video. The stats, according to YouTube, is more than a hundred million videos are viewed per day and more than 65,000 are uploaded on any given day.
Again, the announcement just finding out now that Google has said it is going to purchase youtube.com, the video-sharing site, for $1.6 billion in stock -- Wolf.
BLITZER: A lot of people thought that was a perfect match to begin with, Jacki. Thanks very much.
Let's get back to our top story now. North Korea's claim that it successfully tested a nuclear bomb. Whether that proves to be true or not, the fact is that it is our top story and it could influence the political climate here in Washington. Let's go to our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield -- Jeff.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Wolf, one of the most secretive and repressive nations on Earth says it has tested a nuclear device. The real question obviously is not what this means for the peace of the world but whether it pushes the Mark Foley scandal to the political sidelines.
So let's ask, when does an unexpected news event change the subject?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GREENFIELD (voice-over): This actually isn't the first time an Asian communist nation has joined the nuclear club at election time. It happened in 1964 when China did it. And it happened, by the way, just as Soviet leader Khrushchev was ousted in a coup. But because President Johnson was already headed for a landslide victory against Barry Goldwater, it didn't matter much.
But it mattered a whole lot four years later when Vice President Hubert Humphrey was trying to bring anti-war Democrats to his side in an uphill fight against Richard Nixon. Just days before the election, President Johnson announced he was halting the bombing of the north. It helped Humphrey, but not enough. He lost by 0.7 of a percentage point to Nixon.
When Nixon ran for reelection in '72, National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger announced a breakthrough in peace talks with the north. "Peace is at hand," he proclaimed. But in 1972 Nixon really didn't need any more help in getting a huge victory over George McGovern.
1980 may be one of the most important lessons about changing the subject or not changing it. It's actually where the "October surprise" idea was born as Republicans warned that President Carter would try to pull off a political coup by getting the Iranian hostages released just before election time. But the real political death blow to Carter was no surprise at all. The day before the election, every network and newspaper reminded voters of the one-year anniversary of the hostages' seizure. Carter lost in a landslide.
In 1992 President Bush, the first one, had a very unwelcome surprise on election eve when special prosecutor Lawrence Walsh reopened the whole Iran-Contra scandal affair. It was exactly what Bush did not need.
And in 2000, this was exactly what the younger Bush didn't need. A story in the campaign's last week that he had been arrested for drunk driving as a young man. Bush adviser Karl Rove argued later that the story depressed turnout among social conservatives, costing Bush the popular vote and almost the White House.
And in 2004, the release of a new video by Osama bin Laden put the whole national security terrorism issue front and center just four days before the election, the issue that President Bush was making the centerpiece of his campaign.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GREENFIELD: So does the North Korea test trump the Foley scandal? Well, here is one point to keep in mind, there is a month to go before Election Day. The Korea story may well have faded by then, the Foley follies are likely to stay front and center for weeks -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Jeff Greenfield, thanks very much.
If North Korea has successfully tested a nuclear device, it joins a relatively short list of nations confirmed to have nuclear weaponry. It includes the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India and Pakistan. Israel is an undeclared nuclear power widely assumed to have nuclear bombs although the Israeli government has never said so officially.
Is North Korea's nuclear test enough to change today's political focus? Joining us here for today's "Strategy Session," Democratic Donna Brazile, Republican strategist and chairman of Team America, Bay Buchanan.
Guys, thanks very much for coming in. Do you believe, Donna, that the North Korea story, which is a huge story with enormous ramifications, not only for us but for the whole world potentially, is going to change the political landscape a month before the election?
DONNA BRAZILE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: No, I don't think so. And here is why. First of all, we've known for many, many years that North Korea was producing plutonium. We've known since July that he was testing missiles -- the president of North Korea. So this is not going to change the equation.
If it changes the equation, I don't believe it will benefit Republicans simply because the president has not done enough to really cool the situation down. And the recently passed defense authorization bill, the Congress is demanding that a high level envoy be dispatched to the region so that this could continue to stay on the radar. So I don't think it helps the Republicans at this date.
BLITZER: It may be wishful thinking, but some Republicans are hoping, A, it removes the Mark Foley scandal from the front pages, from the headlines; and, B, it reminds viewers out there and reminds people, voters about the potential of national security, which supposedly is a Republican strength as opposed to the Democrats.
What is your assessment?
BAY BUCHANAN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I happen to think that if it -- if there is any chance that this story can move the Foley story just a notch or two over to the left, this is excellent news for Republicans, because that is what is right now taking up all the air. So you need a big story like this to kind of break through that. But I think Donna is correct, Wolf, to be quite honest. I think Americans are very well aware for the last 20 years that North Korea has had these nuclear reactors. We've been trying to coax them, three different presidents trying to negotiate with them to keep them from moving ahead but they chose to move ahead and I don't think anyone in America says, well, it's somebody's responsibility they shouldn't have moved ahead.
Bush becomes a national leader again. That should help Republicans if we can break through this news story. I don't know that it's going to.
BLITZER: The poll numbers we've released today, Donna, are bad for Republicans. Let's put some numbers up on the screen. Among likely voters, a choice for Congress, it was 53/42 back only a week or so ago. Fifty three for the Democrats, 42 for the Republicans. It's now up to 58/37. That's a 21-point split. Among registered voters it was 53/40, it's now 54/38. It's still a significant, significant split there. It's getting worse for the Republicans. I assume in part because of the Foley fiasco.
DONNA BRAZILE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Absolutely. I think, look, today we have a lot more competitive House seats across the country now. Many of the Senate seats now, Democrats are leading some of the Republican incumbents so this is a good political environment for Democrats to drive home their message that it's time for a new direction and a good political environment for Democratic challengers to say it's time to reform Washington, DC and end one party control so Democrats will take advantage of the polls by going out there, reminding voters that it's time for a change in Washington, DC.
BUCHANAN: It's key. No question, Wolf, that Foleygate has harmed us. I would say number one, the problem is we had momentum right up to 9/11, the president was kind of taking back charge of the terrorists and Iraq ...
BLITZER: After the fifth anniversary of 9/11.
BUCHANAN: After the fifth anniversary, correct. And in the last month or so. But we've started - the Republicans started getting excited we were going to close it. We had a ways to go. This cut that short. There is no momentum right now for Republicans and we're behind so we've not only got to turn things around and then pick up that momentum again. I think the only way Republicans can be successful in November is if each candidate out there recognizes he's on his own, he has got to make his case in his own district and identify what the problems of his district and let them know the solutions he has presented and present himself as a real leader who will ...
BLITZER: Here is, though, a number that may be even more worrisome. Donna, I'll let you react first. To the Republicans, why the GOP leaders did not investigate Foley before now? Among those questioned in our CNN poll, 52 percent, more than half believed there was a deliberate cover-up on the part of the Republican leadership. Thirty eight percent say they're unaware of the serious nature of Foley's -- that the Republicans were un -- were unaware of the nature of Foley's behavior. That number is not good for Republicans.
BRAZILE: And look, there is no question, Bay has pointed out on numerous occasions that the Republican leadership mishandled this situation. Once they learned of an e-mail from a grown man to a minor, they should have stepped in and not just, you know, smacked his hand, but they should have said, Mr. Foley, I'm sorry, you have to go. They should have investigated and that is why the American people are terribly shocked about what happened in Washington, DC. And this is causing many Republicans across the country to run against Washington, DC and run against ...
BLITZER: Not only smack his hand, if you will, but to see if there was a pattern there, were there other e-mail. That was the criticism that was leveled. Why didn't you undertake a full-scale investigation and bring in some congressional pages and is ask them were there any inappropriate exchanges or contacts with Mark Foley.
BUCHANAN: All of that should have been done and more. It wasn't and there is no way we can spin that to the American people. There is no way we can say we really did OK. There is no way the leadership -- I think it would have been better for Republicans for Hastert to step down. Now I think what you're going to have is an ongoing vote of no confidence. Republicans across the country as five congressional candidates have already done said no, Mr. Hastert, don't come in my district. I think you'll see more and more of that as each individual candidate has to become their own person and run as an individual and not as someone who is tied with this leadership.
BLITZER: And in our new poll, we asked the question should Dennis Hastert, the speaker, resign? Fifty-two percent said yes. Thirty one percent said no. Seventeen percent were unsure. Donna and Bay, thanks to both of you for coming in. They are part of the best political team on television.
And still to come, House Republicans who may be threatened by the Mark Foley scandal. We'll catch up with a heated congressional race in the district right next door to Mark Foley's. And is the Republican in charge of keeping control of the House going to be stung? And even sunk by the Foley scandal? A dramatic new poll number coming out in our political radar. Stay with us. You're in "The Situation Room."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: On our political radar this Monday, the Mark Foley scandal sending shock waves far beyond Capitol Hill. The Florida Republican is out of Congress and out of the running for November 7th but Foley's behavior is threatening other GOP House members including one who is practically in his political backyard. Let's go to senior political analyst Bill Schneider. He is in West Palm Beach for another report. Bill?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Wolf, the House race in Florida's 22nd Congressional District, that's right next door here, has always been considered hot. Well, it just got hotter.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (voice-over): Republican Clay Shaw, a senior member of Florida's congressional delegation, has served in Congress for 26 years. But the district voted for John Kerry in 2004 and it's right next door to the district of disgraced former Congressman Mark Foley. The word "senior" should be highly valued in this district where 1 out of 4 voters is over 60. Democratic challenger Ron Klein is using Shaw's standing as a congressional insider against him.
RON KLEIN, DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: He's been there a long time. The Congress is -- He is part of a Congress that just is not responsive.
SCHNEIDER: Case in point, the Foley scandal. It dominates press coverage in this next door district.
KLEIN: It just reinforces this loss of trust in confidence in leaders in Washington.
SCHNEIDER: The incumbent defends speaker Dennis Hastert's handling of the Foley matter.
REP. CLAY SHAW, (R) FL: From all I've heard from the speaker, taking him at his word, did he all he could in order to put a stop to it and to remove Foley from the Congress of the United States.
SCHNEIDER: Klein calls that an insider's response.
KLEIN: Mr. Shaw has taken a position Mr. Hastert has done everything OK, which is there is some way Mr. Shaw responds to a lot of other things, just go along to get along.
SCHNEIDER: One of those other things is the new Medicare prescription drug benefit. It's too complicated, many voters here complain.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A lot of people are also concerned about the fact that the plan itself doesn't allow for cost controls and that is a big, big issue.
SCHNEIDER: It is seen as another example of an unresponsive Congress, just like the Foley scandal.
KLEIN: People say, oh my God, you run into people, what is going on up there? What are these people thinking? Why aren't they taking care of kids or problems?
SCHNEIDER: Congressman Shaw urges voters to consider this. Seniority and influence are a good thing.
SHAW: The Democrats look at this as somewhat of a trophy they would like to take home by unseating me and putting in a young freshman, not too young, actually, but a freshman who would be 80 years old by the time he got to be my seniority.
(END VIDEOTAPE) SCHNEIDER (on camera): Odd, isn't it, that seniority has become an issue in this heavily senior district? Wolf?
BLITZER: Bill Schneider reporting for us from West Palm. Bill, thank you.
And there is also new evidence today that the Foley scandal is weighing in on yet another House Republican, Tom Reynolds of New York. A new Zogby poll shows Reynolds now is trailing his Democratic opponent, Jack Davis by 15 points. In addition to his own reelection campaign, Reynolds heads the Republicans' overall effort to try to keep control of the House of Representatives.
And remember, for all the latest campaign news at any time, check out the political ticker, go to cnn.com/ticker. You're going to want to see that.
Coming up, a fresh perspective on the Mark Foley scandal. In our next hour, we'll hear from the Log Cabin Republicans, A coalition of gay members of the GOP. That's coming up 5:00 p.m. Eastern, in only a few minutes.
Also coming up, he called North Korea's nuclear test a hostile act. I'll speak with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, that's coming up. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
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BLITZER: Did North Korea successfully conduct an underground nuclear test? Experts have confirmed a sub-kiloton explosion occurred but say there is no data to suggest it was a nuclear detonation. Some of the latest details on the blast along with some historical data can be found online. Standing by with details, our Internet reporter Jacki Schechner. Jacki?
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, this is video what it looks like when you do a nuclear test deep underground. This video is available online from the Nevada site office at the U.S. -- let me play it again so you can hear it. It's from the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration which is part of the Department of Energy. This is one of the most authoritative sites online on underground nuclear testing.
They have a full list of all of the tests that have been done in the United States through September of 1992. Nine hundred twenty- eight of those were done in Nevada, 828 of those done underground so you can tell why they have so much information about this. They have details on how exactly this takes place. One of the types that is done is called a shaft test and they basically dig a hole underground that can go anywhere from several hundred feet to 5,000 feet underground.
Now as far as the activity in North Korea that's been recorded, the U.S. Geologic Survey recorded seismic activity in the area 10:35 local time. And you can see right here where that was recorded. It was a 4.2 on the Richter scale but they say it was a depth of about zero so it wasn't that far underground. And just to show you this area is not prone to earthquake activity. The area in white here shows that there is practically a chance of zero of an actual earthquake taking place in that area, Wolf.
BLITZER: Jacki, thank you.
Just ahead, he tried to derail North Korean nuclear aspirations during the Clinton years. Now Governor Bill Richardson says he is extremely concerned by the country's nuclear test. When we come back he will tell us what the U.S. should do next.
Also, Jack Cafferty returns with your e-mail. His question this hour -- how should the international community respond to North Korea's claims of a nuclear test? Stay with us. We'll be right back.
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BLITZER: Jack Cafferty is back with the "Cafferty File." Jack?
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR': The question this hour, Wolf, is how should the international community respond to North Korea's claims that it conducted an underground nuclear test?
Wamey in Blacksburg, Virginia says "The U.N. should approve a war resolution guaranteeing obliteration of North Korea by member states should it ever attack any nation or be found to have sold any nuclear technology or materials to terrorists. Think Gulf War I. Speaking softly and carrying a big stick will still go a long way."
Michael in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. "President Bush has declared the testing of a nuclear device by North Korea is unacceptable. This is the equivalent of telling my kitten not to jump into a paper sack. This country has been rendered impotent by lack of leadership, vision and complete lack of respect by most of the third world countries. What incentives does North Korea or Iran have? Are we going to threaten to invade them, too?"
Zeke, Phoenix. "North Korea wants food. That's it. North Korea is the starving guy in the bad apartments who just found a shotgun that might work. It's what he and the guy behind the counter hope is a bluff and nobody wants it called. He'll put the shotgun down to take the sandwich you give him. Clinton showed it works. I guess that's why Bush scrapped a perfectly good plan."
Will in Ithaca, New York. "Only respond after coming to a consensus among China, South Korea, Japan and Russia. No unilateral response. The North Koreans are counting on this to rip open a rift among us and those nations. In my opinion, negotiating a common response with our friends in the region is just as important as getting North Korea to stand down from their nuclear program."
And Michael in the Woodlands in Texas. "If history is any indication, Bush will likely invade Vietnam or Cuba. This is to make the world a better place."
Wolf? BLITZER: Jack, thank you very much. Jack Cafferty reporting.
And coming up, weighing North Korea's nuclear actions. I'll speak live with the State Department's top diplomatic authority on the communist North, the assistant secretary of state Chris Hill and I'll also speak live with the former U.N. ambassador, the current New Mexico governor, Bill Richardson he has been an envoy to North Korea. Stay with us. Much more of our coverage coming up.
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BLITZER: More on our top story. North Korea's claim it successfully tested a nuclear bomb. Let's get a better look at the country and where the test was carried out. And joining us now CNN's Tom Foreman. Tom, take us closer to the action.
This is going to look at where all of this is happening. Hawaii is over the horizon over there. China over here. South Korea, Japan just went out of sight there. And this is North Korea. A country with about two dozen different nuclear facilities of various types. Some uranium mining, some pure research and some of them actual weapon facilities. The one we're interested is up to the north and the east here fairly close actually to Russia which reaches down a peninsula there.
This is a valley that intelligence people have been looking at for quite sometime. You can see a train station down here right along the bottom of the valley. And if you follow from this train station, the roads over here on the satellite images, they lead up to the place in question, about a dozen miles up. Along the way, new satellite images that were just obtained show what appear to be some sort of guest facilities for visiting scientists or VIPs for this test. And then up the valley, the actual tunnel where we believe this happened. Again, a cluster of support facilities nearby. And the entrance to an actual tunnel up here.
This is where the North Koreans, we believe, conducted this test. Now, the measurement that was made by scientists outside the country actually recorded the impact about 2.7 miles away, across this mountain range. But, of course, this is a tunneled-in facility. If it's tunneled in this way it might in fact be closer to this spot right there which is where the world independently measured what they believe is the first nuclear weapons test by North Korea.
BLITZER: Some pretty rugged terrain over there, too, in that part of Korea.
FOREMAN: But a good place to test it.
BLITZER: All right. We will be watching. Tom, thanks very much.
North Korea's claim of a nuclear test is putting that country's reclusive and mysterious leader back in the world spotlight. Let's go back to CNN's Zain Verjee for a closer look at some details of what we know and what we don't know about this guy. Zain? ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, we don't know for certain where or when he was born, how many times he's been married or even exactly how many children he has. But we do know that despite his reputation as being rather odd, he's even been called crazy, he is anything but.
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PETER MAASS, "NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE": He's not crazy. He might be emotional, he might be somewhat eccentric, but crazy, absolutely not.
VERJEE (voice-over): Indeed, Kim Jong-Il persona may be carefully cultivated as supreme leader of an impoverished country he has little to bargain with on the international stage and his reputation may work to his advantage, but behind it, there is, by all accounts, a shrewd dictator.
MAASS: Really, everybody who has met with Kim Jong-Il and there have been quite a few, South Koreans, Americans, Russians, North Koreans who have since defected. They call come out saying man knows what he is doing.
VERJEE: Kim Jong-Il inherited the role of absolute ruler from his father, Kim Il-Sung, who died in 1994. The elder Kim dubbed himself Great Leader and the younger followed suit, he's known as Dear Leader.
He's believed to have been born in the Soviet Union in 1941 or '42. But his birth place is often listed instead as a mountain famous in Korean mythology. He is thought to have been married three times although it's not clear if all were official. And he's known to have three sons and at least one daughter.
Rather short in stature, he is rumored to wear platform shoes. He nonetheless had he a reputation as a hard partying playboy as a young man and reportedly still has an eye for the ladies.
JERROLD POST, FORMER CIA PROFILER: He recruits at junior high school level, attractive young girls with clear complexions and pretty faces to be enrolled in his Joy Brigades and the Joy Brigades' function is to provide rest and relaxation for his hard work, senior officials.
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VERJEE: Kim is also a huge film buff with a collection of as many as 20,000 films. U.S. officials say he once went so far as to order the kidnapping of a South Korean actress and her director husband. Wolf?
BLITZER: Zain, thanks very much. To our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time.
Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories. Happening now, tonight, fallout over North Korea's announcement it tested a nuclear bomb. How will the United States respond? I'll ask the U.S. point man on North Korea, the assistant secretary of state Chris Hill. He is standing by live.
Who among U.S. administrations bears more blame for the escalating situation? The Bush administration or the Clinton administration.
And it's 5:00 p.m. here in Washington. Did an openly gay Republican congressman previously unnamed in the Mark Foley scandal know about inappropriate as far as back as the year 2000?
I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
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