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The Situation Room
President Bush Holding Urgent Talks With General John Abizaid; Some Democrats Denouncing New Republican Ad As Scare Mongering; China Key To Twisting North Korea's Arm; Getting Out The Vote; Senator Clinton More Than 30 points Ahead Of Republican Opponent; War Of Words Between Democrat Jane Harman and Republican Peter Hoekstra
Aired October 20, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks very much, Susan. And to our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM where new pictures and information are arriving all the time.
Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now -- is the Bush administration going into crisis mode over Iraq? The head of the U.S. military's Central Command meets with the president after a bloody upheaval in the southern Iraqi city of Amara.
It's 4:00 p.m. here in Washington. We're tracking the violence in Iraq and the emerging White House strategy sessions.
Also this hour, the fear factor. Republicans prepare to launch a powerful ad on the terror threat and the stakes on Election Day. Will it help them avoid their worse fear, that would be losing control of the House and Senate.
And there is no debate about it. When Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton squares off with her Republican opponent tonight it will be widely viewed as a warm-up for a presidential campaign. We'll set the stage for the debate and for 2008.
I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
At the White House right now, new evidence of urgency about the killings and the chaos in Iraq. President Bush and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld are meeting today with the head of the U.S. military's Central Command, General John Abizaid. The top U.S. commander in Iraq, General George Casey is joining them on a video hookup from Baghdad. This comes at a time of rampant attacks and bloodshed in Iraq.
The latest flashpoint, the southern provincial city of Amara, 16 people were killed in clashes between police and the militia of the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al Sadr. Officials in Iraq say the fighting is over after the militia briefly seized control of that town.
In addition to hundreds of Iraqis killed, more than 70 U.S. troops have died in Iraq in this month moon -- alone. This may prove to be the deadliest month for U.S. forces there in nearly two years.
President Bush is facing mounting pressure to change his Iraq strategy, including pressure from some Republicans who feel they'll pay a heavy price on Election Day. Amid high anxiety over Iraq, the president's party is trying to shift the focus back to the war on terror. A potentially frightening new ad is due to hit the air waves this weekend. Our Bill Schneider has more on that.
But first, let's go to our White House correspondent, Suzanne Malveaux for all of today's important developments -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, President Bush at this hour is holding urgent talks here at the White House with General John Abizaid. He, of course, is the U.S. commander for the Middle East. All of this coming at a critical time for the White House amid growing political pressure from critics and also some prominent Republicans to change course in Iraq to possibly do a partial withdrawal of U.S. troops, phased withdrawal or even consider partitioning of that country.
But President Bush maintains he will not pull out U.S. troops before Iraqis are able to govern and protect themselves. President Bush says that he is open, however, to possibly changing military tactics. President Bush from earlier today at a Republican fundraiser.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: One of the key issues in this election is who best sees the future and who best has a plan to deal with it? I firmly see the threats we face and the best way for America to protect ourselves is to go on the offense and to stay on the offense.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Now, Wolf, as you mentioned, of course, tomorrow is also going to be a very important day. A rare meeting, a video teleconference with, of course, secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld as well as Iraq point man Casey, they will be discussing strategies. Very interesting, Wolf. The White House says that this was a meeting, a series of meetings that had been previously scheduled but Pentagon sources say that it was hastily arranged to deal with the growing carnage in Iraq -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Suzanne, how stunned are top White House officials by the criticism that is now coming in of the Iraq policy right now, the "stay the course" strategy? Not from Democrats or other critics but from fellow Republicans?
MALVEAUX: It certainly is disheartening. They're not stunned by it but they certainly are discouraged by it and they realize that there is growing political pressure now. And they can't use the argument here that this is partisan politics. They have to deal with the real concerns of the Republicans and clearly they want to do that when you talk about less than three weeks away from the midterm elections. They really don't want to talk about this but they have to deal with it. This is an urgent time -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Suzanne, thanks very much.
Let's get to the war on terror and the campaign tactics in the battle for Congress. Some Democrats now denouncing a new Republican ad as simply scare mongering. Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider is following this part of the story. The strategy behind this new very, very controversial ad. Bill?
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Wolf, a new Republican ad evokes fear. Should Democrats be fearful?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (voice-over): Republicans won the 2002 and 2004 elections on the terrorism issue. Now the Republican National Committee has made an ad which they say will run on national cable TV, including CNN, Sunday and Monday. The ad has sound effects but no spoken words.
And this phrase used in the final frame. "These are the stakes." The same words used in one of the most famous political ads in American history.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Eight, nine -- nine --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Five, four, three, two, one ....
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: These are the stakes. To make a world in which all of God's children can live. Or to go into the dark.
SCHNEIDER: The 1964 ad aired only once but it was highly controversial. So is the new Republican ad. The Democratic National Committee calls it, quote, "A shameful ad invoking the image of despicable terrorists to scare the American people."
Ads that evoke fear always attract attention and controversy. Like this ad from the 1984 Ronald Reagan campaign.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's a bear in the woods. For some people, the bear is easy to see. Others don't see it at all.
SCHNEIDER: And this one from the 2004 Bush campaign.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Weakness attracts those who are waiting that do America harm.
SCHNEIDER: We asked an advertising professional does fear work? With some people, it does.
ROBBIE VORHAUS, PRESIDENT, VORHAUS COMMUNICATIONS: They're trying to reach people who continue to believe that this war is about terrorism and that there are people lurking in the shadows ready to take our lives, then it's effective. If you're a person who believes, as many do, that we've got better things to do than worry about this type of fear, it's going to backfire. (END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: Now we're in the fourth year of the war in Iraq and voters say it has not made them feel more secure. That's what makes this election different from the last two -- Wolf.
BLITZER: The polls, the most recent polls do suggest that the American public thinks that Democrats can do a better job fighting terrorists than Republicans, so I ask this question, Bill. This ad would seem to strengthen the Democrats inadvertently. It's an RNC ad.
SCHNEIDER: Well, at the moment there is the view that the Republicans have not protected America's security mostly because of disillusionment with the war in Iraq. Sop anything that brings up the war in terror and what Democrats say, the failure to capture or kill Osama bin Laden could remind a lot of Americans of Republican failures, not their successes.
BLITZER: This is a Republican National Committee ad. It's not just an ad put out by some other group?
SCHNEIDER: That's right. So the Republican National Committee and it's really an ad aimed at framing the agenda not around Iraq but around the war on terror.
BLITZER: Bill Schneider, thanks very much. Bill and Suzanne Malveaux, as all of you know, are part of the best political team on television.
And remember, for the latest campaign news at any time, check out the political ticker. Go to CNN.com/ticker.
In the North Korean nuclear standoff, Kim Jong-Il reportedly says his country has no plans to conduct an additional nuclear test. A South Korean news agency reports Kim Jong-Il conveyed his regrets for a test explosion earlier this month. However, North Korea's state run news agency issues a statement that sounds less conciliatory. It calls the October 9th test an historic success and a source of national pride.
Secretary of state Condoleezza Rice is in neighboring China today continuing her diplomatic visit in the region. Our Zain Verjee is the only TV reporter traveling with Secretary Rice. She sat down with an exclusive interview with America's top diplomat -- Zain.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, China is the key to twisting North Korea's arm. Secretary Rice is in Beijing on that mission.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECRETARY OF STATE: I think the message was not unlike the one that the Chinese have been delivering publicly. That Resolution 1718 must be observed and China will observe it. The Chinese, obviously, wanted to send a message to the North that they had engaged in very serious behavior that China did not support. They also want very much to try and get a return to the diplomatic path and to the six-party talks.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VERJEE: I also asked her if China was going to cut off financing to North Korea or if it was going to cut off food and fuel shipments to Pyongyang. Secretary Rice really wasn't very specific and said really the Chinese were considering those measures, she hadn't come here to tell them what to do but she said that they were under an obligation to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1617.
I also asked her if North Korea tests again, even though according to one South Korean news report that Kim Jong-Il said that's not going to happen, what would the United States do? She said that North Korea would only isolate itself and that there were other things the U.S. could enforce like broader trade restrictions.
I asked her, too, whether she felt this crisis would be resolved with Kim Jong-Il still in power. She said yes. I asked her if she would consider going to Pyongyang on a diplomatic mission, she said no -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Zain Verjee reporting for us and we're going to have more of Zain's exclusive interview with the secretary of state. That's coming up here in THE SITUATION ROOM in the next hour.
Jack Cafferty is off today. Jack and his "Cafferty File" return next week. But up next with 18 days to go until the election it's all about getting the vote out. Whichever party does a better job usually wins the election. We're going to check out what is called the ground wars.
Plus much more on that new Republican Party campaign commercial. Do scare tactics really work? I'll ask Donna Brazile and Terry Jeffrey. They are standing by for today's "Strategy Session."
And later, Hillary Clinton on the debate stage tonight but is this year's Senate campaign just a warm-up for a presidential run?
Plus this programming note. The Senate majority leader Bill Frist joins me this weekend on LATE EDITION, Sunday. For two hours our program airs starting at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. LATE EDITION, the last word in Sunday talk, Senator Frist among my guests. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back. Carol Lin is joining us from the CNN Center in Atlanta with a closer look at some other important stories making news -- Carol.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi there, Wolf.
The Palm Beach state's attorney's office has identified Anthony Mercieca as the Roman Catholic priest who allegedly abused a teenaged Mark Foley. Now that's according to the Archdiocese of Miami which is apologizing to former Congressman Foley. The archdiocese calls Mercieca's alleged behavior morally reprehensible and says that he could face ecclesiastical sanctions. It is urging any other possible victims to come forward.
And a Wisconsin grocery store clerk appeared in court today to face federal charges he made a phony Web site threat to bomb seven NFL stadiums this Sunday. Authorities say Jake Brahm is not considered a terror suspect. Law enforcement sources tell CNN Brahm and a Texas man wanted to see who could post the scariest threat online. The other man is not expected to face charges. Brahm, however, could face five years in prison if convicted.
And five years after 9/11, police and forensic experts are again digging through the rubble at New York's Ground Zero. Mayor Michael Bloomberg ordered the search after a contractor found human remains in a manhole at the World Trade Center site yesterday. The discovery outraged some victims' families. Bloomberg says searchers will examine manholes as well as other areas that might have been overlooked. The remains of more than 1,100 victims are still missing.
And New York Guardian Angels founder says federal prosecutors have given accused mob boss John Jr. Gotti a gift he doesn't deserve. Prosecutors have decided not to seek a fourth racketeering trial for Gotti. Three prior trials ended in hung juries. Gotti could have faced up to 30 years in prison if convicted of racketeering and ordering the kidnapping of Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa. Gotti says he left the mob in 1999.
Well, the lights are still out in parts of western New York a week after a fierce October snowstorm. About 31,000 people still don't have electricity. But that's down from 400,000 customers at the height of the storm which dumped two feet of snow. Its estimated cleanup costs will top $135 million, Wolf. Even the state had to send in more nurses to the local hospitals to treat some of the injured.
BLITZER: My heart goes out to all of my friends and family in Buffalo. My old hometown. Good luck to them. Thanks very much, Carol.
Eighteen days before midterm elections Democrats are seeing dollar signs. Newly released reports sew the Democratic campaign committees for the House and Senate out-raised their republican counterparts last month. Historically, the GOP leads in the money race. And now democrats are trying to seize the advantage in another area where they've traditionally lagged behind, that would be called the ground war.
Let's bring in our chief national correspondent John King. A lot of our viewers don't necessarily know what we mean when we talk about the ground war in politics.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I've been at this a while. It's interesting. When you go out now because of all the technological advances. This involves tens and tens of millions of dollars, computer databases, what the campaigns call micro targeting to find their voting but in the end, Wolf, there is no substitute for good old-fashioned shoe leather. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice-over): Foot soldiers in the midterm election ground war. Door-to-door in the Philadelphia suburbs. In this case targeting union households and plugging Democrats.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Can we count on your support?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes. I'm a Democrat.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you, ma'am.
KING: The area is a critical test of a Democratic turnout effort that has lagged behind a much more sophisticated Republican get out the vote machine in the past few election cycles. There are three vulnerable House Republicans in the Philadelphia area and incumbent GOP Senator Rick Santorum also is in trouble.
Delores Bowie of the Service Employees International Union says she's confident this year because of encounters with union members who, in the past, have supported Republicans.
DELORES BOWIE, SEIU ELECTION ORGANIZER: We kind of turned them around or at least get them to thinking about turning the other way so, you know, so far, you know, and we had done that in this campaign, so they have already changed their vote and they're coming on our side.
KING: This SEIU trailer is a mobile phone bank. Twelve stations for calls reminding union members and their families to vote.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Should I say you're undecided?
KING: This is the first big election test for labor since a nasty feud caused two of the biggest and most politically active unions, the service employees and the teamsters to split from the AFL- CIO and it is a reminder of the biggest difference in the turnout battle. Democrats are still dependent on labor and other allies.
In contrast, Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman and the Bush White House have spent millions on a centralized national database and then send trained, paid staffers to direct turnout efforts in key states and races.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: ... Republican Party to make sure that all Republicans get out and support our ticket.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Eleven seventy-four. It's down here.
KING: Republicans say they will make more than a million voter contacts a week between now and Election Day, hoping their organizational and financial edge offsets or at least somewhat blunts a breeze that here and across the country appears to be blowing the Democrats' way.
(END VIDEOTAPE) KING: Pennsylvania yesterday, Wolf, we were in Missouri earlier in the week and saw much of the same thing. It's quite remarkable how the technology has changed. You used to have to dial the phones yourself, now they have computers make the phone calls.
All the voters on their list are bar codes. It's like going to the supermarket. They make the call, they scan the barcode. They put in how you're going to vote in the election. And guess what? Between now and Election Day if you're on their list the phone will ring several more times.
BLITZER: They are going to try to get the vote out, both sides. This new RNC ad that's being compared to the 1964 daisy ad, a lot of people saying it's just scare mongering, trying to create fear in the hearts of the American public that if the Democrats are elected we are all going to die or whatever.
Is this going to be -- you were out in the field looking at a key races over these past several weeks. Is this going to be an effective ad for the RNC?
KING: Well, it is a strategy they have used in the past two cycles and it worked for them in 2002 and it worked for them in 2004 to hit hard on security and terrorism at the end. Some would say this is perhaps over the line.
And as you noted in talking with Bill Schneider, the polls have changed since then and voters are either split equally or slightly more in favor of the Democrats when it comes to those issues but it is a sign the Republicans know they have a problem, a big problem and trying to motivate their base and maybe try to scare some other people away.
It's not just in the ads. You hear -- We ran into Ken Mehlman at a local Republican headquarters yesterday. What does he tell the supporters, when you're out there talking to people electing the Democrats would mean the end of the PATRIOT Act, the end of the surveillance program, a weaker war on terrorism. So the Republicans have clearly decided to close with this. Will it work? It worked for them twice before and that is why they are going to try it one more time.
BLITZER: All of next week we are going to be airing special reports starting at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. You've been working on one as part of our broken government series that airs next Thursday night at 8:00 p.m. What are you working on?
KING: Looking on presidential power and the controversies over how this president, George W. Bush has stretched, some say stepped over the lines of the Constitution in the war on terrorism. Whether the issue be how you treat detainees, the PATRIOT Act and the effort to get library records and other surveillance here at home.
There is a big debate and has the president overstepped and we have quite a fascinating discussion. The vice president is involved in our piece and also a man who spent nearly three years in U.S. custody including at Bhagram and Guantanamo Bay, who of course is quite upset at the president, he gets a voice in our piece. It's an interesting look.
BLITZER: We're going to watch them all next week starting at 8:00 p.m. John, thanks very much.
John King, as all of our viewers also know is part of the best political team on television. And remember, for all the latest campaign news at any time, check out the political ticker. Go to CNN.com/ticker.
Up next, the political war over Iraq. Is the issue dividing Republicans? I'll ask Donna Brazile and Terry Jeffrey in today's "Strategy Session."
And later, the battle for Congress. With 18 days left until the election are more House seats now in play? We'll map it all out with Stu Rothenberg and Amy Walter. They are standing by live. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.
A similar haunting ad worked for LBJ 40 years ago but is the GOP crossing the line with its new campaign advertisement warning of new potential terror attacks against the United States? Joining us now is CNN political analyst and Democratic strategist Donna Brazile and Terry Jeffrey, the editor of "Human Events."
Guys, thanks very much for coming in. Is this ad, we've shown it earlier, warning of horrible consequences for the American public if the Democrats are elected as far as the war on terror is concerned, is this ad over the top?
DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, look. The Republicans, first of all, they're desperate at this point. Wolf, they plan to run this ad on a couple of cable shows, spend less than $20,000 so this is not a serious ad. It's meant to rally Republicans to try to motivate the base. It's shameful and it's despicable but the truth of the matter is they have no credibility when it comes to fighting the war on terror, they have no credibility on the national security. Democrats have regained the edge and I think this ad will backfire.
BLITZER: Here is what former President Bill Clinton said yesterday. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: They've won two elections by their skin's teeth, by scaring people at the end and dividing them up again. But you can only run the dog through the same path so many times before it doesn't work any more and I just think it's kind of a mangy old dog now. (END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Is it an effective strategy, though.
TERRY JEFFREY, EDITOR, "HUMAN EVENTS": It's the most important strategy, Wolf. I think this is an excellent ad. The bottom line is the Democrats are claiming they're better on national security now. You can trust them more to protect us against terrorism. Bottom line we are in a congressionally authorized war against al Qaeda.
Everybody knows they're still out there and everybody knows they want to kill them and everybody knows the fundamental duty of the federal government is protect us, our communities and our families against our foreign enemies.
So the question people have to answer when they go to the polls in November 7th is the exact one that ad asks.
BLITZER: But in some of the more recent polls it shows that the American public thinks Democrats can do a better job fighting terrorists than Republicans.
JEFFREY: Right, Wolf, and the fact that the Democrats are complaining about this ad makes me think the Democrats themselves don't even believe it. I tell you, if this gets back on, do you want the United States to intercept the international communications of al Qaeda?
Do you want us tracking their finances? Do you want tough interrogation methods for al Qaeda terrorists? Do you want to keep Guantanamo open and keep them there or put them in U.S. courts where a liberal judge ...
BRAZILE: Do you want to implement the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission? Do you really want to hunt and kill bin Laden ...
JEFFREY: Absolutely.
BRAZILE: ... or just talk about it and talk tough so you can run election ads? Look, Democrats have a plan for real security.
JEFFREY: What is it?
BRAZILE: Today Nancy Pelosi ...
JEFFREY: Are you in favor of intercepting al Qaeda's communications?
BRAZILE: Today Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid once again sent a letter to the president saying it's time to change course. We've lost 200 troops over the last ...
JEFFREY: Are you in favor of waterboarding al Qaeda terrorists?
BRAZILE: You know ...
JEFFREY: Do you think they should have habeas corpus in federal courts or liberal judges?
BLITZER: All right, all right!
BRAZILE: And do you think talking tough is going to actually keep America safe? We've had six years of nothing from the Republicans but talks of fear and that is not the solution.
BLITZER: Hold on. I want to move on, talk about another issue that is a huge issue overhanging this election. That would be Iraq. We just got a new ad that a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in the State of Minnesota, the seat that Mark Dayton is up is now running. This is an extraordinary admission on his part.
I'll play it for you.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARK KENNEDY (R), SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: None of us like war and we've made some mistakes in Iraq. We're facing an enemy that must be defeated. Leaving Iraq now will create a breeding ground for new attacks on America. That's the harsh reality. My opponent says the answer is diplomacy. But you can't negotiate with people who want to kill you.
I'm Mark Kennedy. Securing the peace is a lot harder than wishing for it. I approve this message even though I know it may not be what you want to hear.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Now, Donna, he is in a tough race against Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic candidate. That is Mark Kennedy. The polls show she is ahead right now. What do you make of his strategy in going after those who are really concerned about the Iraq War and him making that case the way he has?
BRAZILE: Well, what he is trying to do, because he voted for the war, he supported the war and he supports "stay the course" and what he is trying to do is change the subject and say, you know, this is about the terrorists. This is not about my record. This is not about, you know, the United States having an exit strategy.
Now, once again, I think it -- again, it's going to fall on deaf ears, because the American people now want to hear, what are you going to do differently? Do we have an exit strategy? Can we force Mr. Maliki and others in Iraq to stop the militia? That's what they want to hear. They want to hear some success...
BLITZER: All right.
BRAZILE: ... and not more of the same.
BLITZER: Is -- Congressman Kennedy, who is giving up his House seat to run for the Senate from Minnesota, is this a wise strategy on his part, knowing the state of Minnesota as well as you do?
JEFFREY: Well, absolutely, Wolf.
Look, you would have to be a fool not to know that we are in a very tough situation in Iraq. Americans are getting killed. Sunnis and Shias are killing each other. Today, we had Shias killing Shias in southern Iraq.
The question isn't whether the American people want to get out of Iraq. The question is, what is the optimum path? And, if we follow the path many Democrats are advocating, that we get out of there before we have political stability, the consequences will be worse than the consequences we are suffering now.
That is an ad that goes to that point. And it's the point the Republicans need to make.
BRAZILE: Well, there is now a bipartisan consensus that is being developed led by John Warner, Chuck Hagel, and others, that say that it's time for us to have a new strategy in Iraq. And, hopefully, the president will listen to the military commanders coming into Washington this week...
BLITZER: All right.
BRAZILE: ... to discuss a new strategy. That's what we need in Iraq.
BLITZER: We got to leave it, guys, right there.
Donna and Terry, thanks very much...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: ... a good discussion in our "Strategy Session."
Up next: Hillary Clinton under the debate lights tonight. But is this year's Senate reelection campaign just a warm-up for a race for the White House? We are going to go live to Upstate New York, specifically Rochester, New York, to find out.
Plus: Arnold Schwarzenegger finds an unlikely ally, as he runs for reelection as California's governor.
That story in our next hour -- coming up here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton faces off with a Republican challenger tonight in the first of two debates tonight. It's not likely to be a make-or-break moment for the New York Democrat. She is considered a shoo-in for reelection.
But Senator Clinton's performance is likely to add more fuel to speculation about her presidential prospects.
Our Mary Snow is covering the debate. She is joining us now live from Rochester, New York -- Mary.
MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Wolf.
And, you know, when you talk to many New Yorkers, and you tell them that Senator Clinton is debating her Republican opponent, most will have the same reaction. They ask, who is her Republican opponent? And that pretty much sums up this race.
Despite the fact that Republicans said last year that they were really going to challenge Senator Clinton, she is more than 30 points ahead of her Republican opponent. Still, this debate is gaining attention to see whether or not it's a warm-up for the White House.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How are you?
SNOW (voice-over): So, just how are pollsters in New York viewing Senator Hillary Clinton's race against Republican John Spencer?
MAURICE CARROLL, DIRECTOR, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLLING INSTITUTE: Clinton for president can crank up on November 8, and start going for real.
SNOW: To hear pundits tell it, Clinton for president in 2008 is a done deal, except Clinton herself has never said she will run for the White House, and has repeatedly insisted she is only on focusing on a reelection bid.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)
NARRATOR: New Yorkers took a chance on Hillary Clinton. And, boy, has she come through for us.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SNOW: Clinton's campaign has spent some $10 million in recent months, but she has got more than $15 million left over that could be put toward a presidential campaign, should she run.
Compare that to the nearly $2 million her opponent spent in the last quarter, with less than $500,000 in cash left.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)
JOHN SPENCER (R), NEW YORK SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: I'm John Spencer. And I approved this message, because I won't play politics with our security.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SNOW: Despite Republican vows to slow Clinton down in this race, she is leading her Republican opponent by a 2-1 margin in the polls. Still, she says, she's preparing for a debate with Spencer. SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: I will, obviously, prepare, because it's important to, you know, present my views and why I think the direction of the country needs to be changed, for the benefit of New York, and for Americans.
SNOW: Exactly what kind of change does she have in mind? "The New York Times," in endorsing her for her Senate run, says it's watching with interest to see if she can convince the country that she has as much aptitude for the presidency as she does for her current job.
Some political observers say part of that convincing could come in the results of New York's race.
MICHAEL TOMASKY, AUTHOR, "HILLARY'S TURN": She carried about four counties in Upstate New York that would normally go Republican that are pretty tough for Democrats to win. I'm certain that she's going to try to be expanding on that margin, and maybe double it this time, because she will want to use that to say: You see, I can get votes in red areas.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SNOW: While polls show that Senator Clinton is popular, those same polls also show that she can be viewed as polarizing. And political observers say that will be a big factor in whether or not she decides to run for the White House -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Mary, thanks very much. Mary is going to be back with us during the 7:00 p.m. Eastern hour, just as that debate is unfolding. She will be bringing us the latest from there.
Coming up next, though: the battle for control of Congress. With only 18 days left until the election, are more House seats now in play? And are there any surprises in the Senate shaping up? I will map it all out with Stu Rothenberg and Amy Walter. They're standing by live.
Plus: one on one with the secretary of state of the United States. We will have much more of Zain Verjee's exclusive interview with Condoleezza Rice. That's coming up in the next hour -- all that right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back.
In the battle for Congress, it's a numbers game right now -- both parties counting down the days and the seats in play.
Let's get the latest snapshot of the crucial races from Stu Rothenberg of "The Rothenberg Political Report" and Amy Walter of "The Cook Political Report."
Guys, thanks very much for coming in. Amy, are more seats now in play, because it seems like that's the case. Several seats that at one point were considered shoo-ins, especially for Republicans, now seem, at least potentially, at play.
AMY WALTER, SENIOR EDITOR, "THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT": Absolutely.
It seems like, every week, we're moving a couple more seats into a more competitive category. And they're all Republican-held seats. Now, some of them are moving because of the individual situation in those districts. But a lot of them simply are getting more competitive just because the environment is that much worse for Republicans.
BLITZER: Are you finding the same thing, Stu?
STUART ROTHENBERG, "THE ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Yes, every week, we seem to be adding two or three races, Wolf.
And it's really -- to some extent, it's some uncertainty, how big the wave will be. And, so, we're seeing more and more polling suggesting Republicans under 50 percent in districts where they should be over 50 percent. That makes us take a longer look at those races.
BLITZER: How many, ballpark, seats are at play right now, would you guess?
ROTHENBERG: Well, we just did a newsletter, and we are looking at 55 Republican Party seats. So...
BLITZER: All Republican seats?
ROTHENBERG: Yes. Well, there are a handful of Democratic seats we are keeping an eye on, because, historically, one -- even if there is a wave one way, one district, one seat will go the other. But, no, this game is being played almost entirely on Republican turf.
BLITZER: Now, I know there are several races that you now see at play that a lot of people thought were not going to be in play.
WALTER: Right.
BLITZER: Let's go through some of them, Florida 13. This is Katherine Harris' seat, Congresswoman Katherine Harris. She is running for the Senate from the state of Florida, a race pitting Vern Buchanan and Christine Jennings.
WALTER: You look at the numbers in this district, this is Sarasota, a wealthy Republican district. It should elect a Republican.
At the same time, Republicans put up a nominee in Vern Buchanan who has a lot of his own problems. He was attacked a lot in his own primary. And he is coming into the race now carrying that baggage. And, in a year like this, I just don't think any candidate can afford to carry any sort of problems or baggage with them that can be exploited by your opponent.
More importantly, voters just have very little time for candidates who aren't -- you know, who carry that with them.
BLITZER: Another race that wasn't supposed to be close is shaping up close. This is the seat being given up by Representative Jim Gibbons, who is running for governor of Nevada, Nevada 2 -- Dean Heller, the Republican, vs. Jill Derby, the Democrat.
WALTER: When we look at Nevada, we always concentrate on the two districts that are in the southern part of the state, the ones around Las Vegas and the suburbs. We have always conceded that the -- the northern part of the state is so very Republican and rural.
But, right now, you have a Democratic candidate, in Jill Derby, who has run a very good campaign. She did not have a primary. She was able to get on TV and define herself. The Republican had a -- had a bruising primary. He was supposed to be the stronger candidate of the three in the Republican primary. And, yet, he hasn't been able to catch up.
He has the benefit of a more Republican-leaning district. But this thing is in play. And nobody would have expected that a few weeks ago.
BLITZER: And you're suggesting another one in Minnesota, the incumbent Republican, Representative Gil Gutknecht, against the Democratic challenger, Tim Walz.
This was supposed to be easy for Gutknecht. It's not turning out that way.
WALTER: Well, Minnesota is looking bad all across the board for Republicans right now. You can just see Republicans carrying the weight of this environment on their backs. And Gutknecht is one of those who is really suffering from it.
So, here's a race where -- that Democrats hadn't been paying much attention. The DCCC just went up with ads today in this district.
BLITZER: The Senate races, let's talk a little bit about -- Stu, about that, specifically, Connecticut, a very, very blue state. We know that Iraq is a huge issue involving so many of these races out there. Yet, the former Democrat, now the independent, Joe Lieberman, is doing really, really well against Ned Lamont.
ROTHENBERG: Right. Lieberman appears to be up by about 17 points. As you mentioned, in the last Quinnipiac, he is winning 70 percent of Republicans, a clear majority of independents, even a third of Democrats.
Wolf, the great irony here is that this was the race that kind of led the entire cycle to show the anger out there on the side of Democrats, the anti-war fervor -- Joe Lieberman taken out in the primary. And, yet, when all these Republicans are in trouble, because of President Bush, Joe Lieberman now looks like he is headed to -- for reelection.
BLITZER: We will show our viewers what this latest Quinnipiac University poll in Connecticut shows. It's just out: Lieberman with 52 percent, Ned Lamont with 35 percent. Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, he has gone up from 5 to 6 percent, not doing all that well in Connecticut.
But, potentially, for the Democrats, Lieberman, assuming he's going to win, if these numbers hold, it's very significant, because he could be a tie-breaker, if things get really close.
ROTHENBERG: Well, you have to wonder, if Joe Lieberman is reelected -- and it looks like he will be -- how will he behave for the next six years. He will feel probably a great deal of freedom, less pressure from the party. On some key votes, he might be a wild card.
BLITZER: He said on this program not that long ago, Amy, that, if he is reelected, he will vote with the Democrats; he's not going to become a Republican, even if they offer him a chairmanship of a powerful committee. He is pretty firm on that.
WALTER: Well, and I think that's probably -- that's very fair.
But I agree with Stu's point, which is, it does give you a whole lot of freedom to be able to do what you want on certain issues. And it's also why I think, even from the very beginning in this race, after Lamont won the primary, you just did not see the pile-on by national Democrats onto Joe Lieberman.
There definitely was this belief that he, indeed, could come back to the Senate. And they certainly didn't want to burn any bridges.
BLITZER: Eighteen days to go -- to change the tide, because the tide looks like it's going Democratic right now, to change the tide, what do the Republicans need to do?
ROTHENBERG: Well, Wolf, they have been talking for months about their strategy, which is make this election a referendum on the Democratic challengers, the Democratic candidates, basically by criticizing, attacking them, portraying them as unfit for office, in a variety of ways.
So far, that has been harder to do than they thought. They have been attacking, and the attacks have been bouncing off. Whether they will start to stick in the final two-and-a-half weeks is, in my mind, questionable. But they are going to continue to try it.
BLITZER: Considering the Foley controversy, what is happening in Iraq right now, a lot of Democrats are saying, you know, things are falling in their -- in their -- on their side, almost completely. They can't sort of believe it.
WALTER: Yes, well, it's -- there's no control that either of these parties have, obviously, over external events. So, now, the question, as Stu pointed out, can you, in your individual race, try to make your opponent the focal point, instead of -- especially if you're a Republican -- instead of Iraq or Foley, or whatever else is going on in Washington at that time?
And I agree. What we're seeing is that so many of these Republican incumbents, they have just not been able to get the kind of traction they thought they would have by now. They have not broken open up races in which they have been spending a great deal of money and effort trying to define their opponent.
ROTHENBERG: Part of it is, the voters don't seem to care. They just want change. It's not about the candidates. It's not even about the attacks. It's change.
BLITZER: A lot of frustration and anger out there.
Guys, thanks very much, Amy and Stu. See you back here next week.
They are joining us every week, as we move toward the election.
Up next: Democrats are fuming after a House Republican bars a staffer from access to classified information -- what Democrats say prompted the move, and why they're calling it an abuse of power.
And surging violence in Iraq may be prompting a change of tactics at the White House. Our John Roberts, right now in Baghdad, I will speak with him -- to him about what is happening on the ground in Iraq.
That's coming up in our next hour right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
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BLITZER: On our "Political Radar" this Friday: A new feud under the Capitol dome pits two powerful lawmakers with access to some of America's top secrets. It stems from last month's leak of a national intelligence estimate on Iraq.
Our congressional correspondent Andrea Koppel watching this story and the fireworks for us -- Andrea.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, until just a couple of months ago, Jane Harman and Peter Hoekstra had a working -- cordial working relationship. They went to the Middle East together on a congressional delegation.
But now just the acrimony and the tension is an indicator of just how incredibly partisan this spirit is, just two-and-a-half weeks out from midterm elections.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL (voice-over): This war of words between the top two members of the House Intelligence Committee, Democrat Jane Harman and Republican Peter Hoekstra, escalated after Hoekstra notified Harman this week he had suspended one of her staffers' access to classified intelligence, pending investigation.
In a letter, Hoekstra told Harman he did so after another Republican member, Congressman Ray LaHood, raised red flags over last month's leak of classified information from a national intelligence estimate on Iraq. At the time, President Bush left no doubt he believed the leak was politically motivated.
BUSH: And here we are coming down the stretch in an election campaign and it's on the front page of your newspapers. Isn't that interesting? Somebody's taken it upon themselves to leak classified information for political purposes.
KOPPEL: But even LaHood admitted, in his letter, that he had "no credible information" to confirm the leak came from the committee's Democratic staff, and that it might be "only coincidence, and simply look bad." He still added, "Coincidence in this town is rare."
Harman, who is the Intelligence Committee's top Democrat, fired off a sharply-worded letter to Hoekstra, and, in a statement, called the move "without basis and an abuse of his power." She said there is "no evidence" her staffer "did anything wrong."
Harman also said, because Hoekstra didn't consult her before taking action, his "unilateral commencement of an investigation violates committee rules."
Finally, Harman questioned the timing of Hoekstra's move, the same day she released a summary of the committee's report on a former Republican committee member, now jailed criminal Randy "Duke" Cunningham. Harman accused Hoekstra of trying to retaliate against her.
Republicans, meanwhile, quickly seized upon the controversy, releasing statement after statement accusing Democrats of undermining U.S. national security.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: Now, Congresswoman Harman said that she has full confidence in her staffer, who is still on her payroll, still working for her. Two congressional sources say that they believe that this move was 100 percent partisan. They say that the report was available to thousands of people four to five months ago, Wolf.
Now, as far as Congressman Hoekstra's office is concerned, they say that Congress has a zero-tolerance atmosphere, and nobody gets the benefit of the doubt when it comes to security issues -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Thanks very much, Andrea, for that -- Andrea Koppel on the Hill.
And, remember, for the latest campaign news at any time, check out the Political Ticker. Go to CNN.com/ticker. Still to come: Former Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry is being asked to open his campaign chest to help out Democrats in next month's election. But he says he already has. So, what's all the fuss about? Find out. That's coming up.
You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
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BLITZER: Senator John Kerry still has millions of dollars left over from his 2004 presidential campaign.
Now, as Election Day approaches, a new anonymous Web site is asking Kerry to turn some of that money over to fellow Democratic candidates. But is that demand fair?
Our Internet reporter, Abbi Tatton, has details -- Abbi.
ABBI TATTON, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, called Hey, John!, this anonymous site popped up earlier this week.
And it calls on Senator Kerry to release $8.3 million of funds left over from his 2004 presidential bid. The site says this war chest is needed to support Democratic candidates in next month's elections.
Well, this new site brought a swift online response here at the John Kerry Web site. A message on the front says, "No one has done more than John Kerry to support Democratic candidates."
And a new page is listed there, listing the efforts of the senator. Senator Kerry's spokesman, David Wade, described the contributions, $11 million for Democratic candidates and committees. Wade referred to the anonymous authors of the site as troublemakers.
Well, CNN reached the administrator of Hey, John! earlier today, who talked on the condition of anonymity. He described the site's organizers as a very informal group of friends, some of whom work in Democratic politics, and who wanted to get together and put their message online -- some, in the comments section of this site, calling the anonymous effort cowardly -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Thanks very much, Abbi, for that.
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