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The Situation Room
Bush Administration Shifting Strategy And Language On Iraq; Michael J. Fox At Center Of Campaign Controversy
Aired October 24, 2006 - 17:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And to our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now, it's midnight in Baghdad where the war in Iraq is now being waged according to the clock and the calendar. U.S. officials set a timeline, a timetable for Iraq to run its own affairs. Will that get U.S. troops out any sooner?
It's 5:00 p.m. here in Washington.
The White House hosts dozens of radio talk show hosts for a talk show submit. Can that mobilize conservative voters two weeks before Election Day?
And the hard sell for stem cell research. Actor Michael J. Fox, who struggles with Parkinson's disease, tries to mobilize voters for a Democrat in Missouri. I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Benchmarks and checkmarks, a timetable and a timeline, but no deadline. The clock now ticking for Iraq to take over its own security. The Bush administration shifting its strategy and its language on Iraq, but as the violence rages on, has anything really changed for American troops on the ground? A hundred and forty thousand of them still there. Brian Todd is standing by. But let's first go to our Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr -- Barbara.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, today it was full court press by the generals, General Peter Pace, chairman of the joints chief of staff, has just concluded a press conference here. With his views, he says he thinks one of the reasons most Americans now do not support the war in Iraq he said is that they are seeing too much negative news on TV. So he came out to offer more information. It was indeed the second press conference of the day.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
STARR (voice-over): At a Baghdad news conference designed to assure everyone that progress is being made to get Iraqi forces to take charge, there was a new timeline.
GEN. GEORGE CASEY, COMMANDER, MULTINATIONAL FORCES, IRAQ: It's going to take another 12 to 18 months or so until I believe the Iraqi security forces are completely capable of taking over responsibility for their own security.
STARR: Casey's previous timeline for bringing at least some U.S. troops home long ago fell victim to increased attacks.
CASEY: I said a year or so ago that if the conditions on the ground continued the way they were going, that I thought we'd have fairly substantial reductions in coalition forces.
STARR: Instead, thousands of additional U.S. troops in Baghdad are trying to stem the tide of sectarian violence. The U.S. is now laying out goals for Iraq that could lead to more security and less need for U.S. troops, such as tackling militias, reconciling with the Sunni insurgency, constitutional reforms and distribution of oil wealth.
But the key challenge remains unchanged. Getting Iraqis to crack down on the militias and death squads. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad acknowledged the U.S. has no direct contact yet with Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of the Mahdi Army, perhaps the strongest of all militias. So for now, it's all political carrots to the militias and no stick yet from Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
ZALMAY KHALILZAD, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO IRAQ: He believes in an integrated approach. Political? Yes, that's the best approach if you can convince those that control militias to cooperate with decommissioning, demobilization and reintegration plan.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
STARR: And, Wolf, General Casey indeed left the door open to asking for more troop, both U.S. and Iraqi troops, but still it's a challenge to get all the Iraqi forces to show up where the U.S. wants them -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right. Barbara, thank you. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon. So staying the course or charting a new course as the Bush administration clearly changes its language on Iraq, we want to go between the lines.
CNN's Brian Todd is checking that for us -- Brian.
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, that language indicates we may be starting to see a major policy shift on Iraq. The sign comes from what members of the administration say and no longer say.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TODD (voice-over): What's the political dirty word on Iraq these days? Apparently not timetable.
KHALILZAD: Success in Iraq is possible and can be achieved on a realistic timetable.
TODD: The ambassador's boss hasn't been an admirer of the word, at least as it applied to U.S. troop withdrawals. GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There's a debate in Washington as to whether or not we set an artificial timetable for withdrawal is what it is about in Washington, D.C. And the answer is absolutely not.
TODD: That was three months ago. Since then, hundreds of Iraqi civilian deaths, the fifth highest monthly death toll among U.S. servicemen. And plummeting poll numbers on Iraq have moved the president more drastically away from another phrase. Over the summer, it was ...
BUSH: We will stay the course.
We will win in Iraq so long as we stay the course.
TODD: But just two weeks ago it began to shift.
BUSH: It's the characterization of, it's stay the course is about a quarter right.
TODD: This week, the president's press secretary nudges it even further away.
TONY SNOW, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: What you have is not stay the course but in fact a study in constant motion by the administration and by the Iraqi government.
TODD: Analysts say this is a classic political tactic, when a leader is aiming or a dramatic shift in policy and needs to test it with the public.
JOHN SIDES, GWU: What they would like to avoid is the president making a direct statement that appears to be the exact opposite of something he said a month ago. And so one way to avoid that is to have the president say subtler things and then to let statements that are a little bit more direct come from people like Khalilzad and Tony Snow who are surrogates of the president.
TODD: But even that is politically treacherous, analysts say, after calls from prominent Democrats for phased withdrawals from Iraq were consistently met with this.
BUSH: They say date certain is the way to get out before the job is done. That is cut and run.
Their policy is pretty clear to me. It's cut and run.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TODD: That last sound bite was from earlier today. Now we may be watching this delicate balancing act up to the election and beyond as the president says "cut and run" to criticize his opponents at the same time his surrogates talk about timetables and move away from the idea of staying the course in Iraq. Wolf.
BLITZER: Thanks very much, Brian, for that. The U.S. military says it's using all of its resources right now to try to find an American soldier who went missing yesterday in Baghdad and is believed to have been abducted.
CNN's John Roberts who was with U.S. troops searching for the man. He was embedded with those troops, says he's an Iraqi American translator. The military says the man had gone without permission to a relative's house where he was abducted by masked man who handcuffed the soldier and forced him into a vehicle. U.S. troops searched a TV station, several other Baghdad buildings. Coalition forces have set up checkpoints in the capital.
As we noted, our senior national correspondent John Roberts has just had a firsthand look at U.S. troops trying to keep the peace in the Baghdad area.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: You spent a few days now embedded with the U.S. military outside of Baghdad. You're back in Baghdad now. What was it like? A lot of these soldiers have been there now for more than a year. I know they're anxious to get back home. Give us a little flavor of their mood right now.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The Stryker Brigade that I was with had probably been in here the longest of the units I was with, anyways. They're going to be rotating out supposedly the middle of next month. And they are looking forward to that. There was a lot of disappointment, a lot of long faces in August when they got the news that their tour of duty was going to be extended by an extra four months.
Of course family members back home very disappointed about it. But for the time that I spent with them they really seem to have their head in the game. They really want the try to make a difference. They had been operating up in Mosul predominantly until the last couple of weeks when they were retasked down here to Baghdad because really, the future of Iraq really is tied to what goes on in Baghdad here in the next number of months and perhaps over the next year or so.
And they really want to try to make a difference. I was out with a fellow named Captain Edwin Mathiatis (ph). He is the C.O. of Charlie Company of the 117 Infantry Battalion. And he wants to really be kind of the tough cop on the street here to say we're not going to tolerate any violence, we're not going to tolerate these militias running around in the streets.
They really do, as they said, have their head in the game. They believe that they can make a difference if they work hard enough at it and believe me, Wolf, with the number of hours that we have put in, in the past 48 hours, they are willing to work hard at it.
BLITZER: Let's wish them only the best. And you too, John, be careful over there. Thanks very much.
ROBERTS: All right. You bet, Wolf. (END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Let's check in with Zain Verjee. She has got a closer look at some other important stories making news right now -- Zain.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, House speaker Dennis Hastert today testified before the House Ethics Committee behind closed doors. The panel is trying to determine when he and his staff first learned object former Congressman Mark Foley's contact with teenage pages and what they did about it. Hastert's testimony followed Congressman Tom Reynolds'. The House GOP campaign chairman says that he warned Hastert about Foley this past spring. Hastert says he doesn't remember that.
UN sanctions against Iran for its disputed nuclear program may be a step closer. Diplomats say the United States, Britain and France are working on a draft resolution to ban missile and nuclear technology sales to Tehran. The proposal reportedly would also cut off some technological programs. Iran's top nuclear negotiator says sanctions could backfire by making Tehran more determined to continue enriching uranium.
China's giving its first public account of its recent mission to North Korea over Pyongyang's nuclear program. China's foreign ministry spokesman says North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il did not apologize for conducting a nuclear weapons test but he adds, North Korea did say it had no plans to carry out the second test and expressed a willingness to return to six nation nuclear talks if financial sanctions are resolved.
And we have some late breaking developments right now. Palestinian security and political sources tell CNN an Associated Press photographer who was abducted in Gaza today has now been freed. The photographer who is from Spain was kidnapped by Palestinian gunmen as he left his apartment this morning. So far no one's claiming responsibility for his abduction. The Hamas-led government had demanded his swift release -- Wolf.
BLITZER: We're happy for Emilio Morenatti. Zain, thanks very much. He's the A.P. photographer. It's never good when any of our journalistic colleagues are kidnapped. Happy he's been freed.
Jack Cafferty is off today. He'll be back with "The Cafferty File" tomorrow. Up ahead, letting talking heads do the talking for you, two weeks before Election Day the White House hopes to fire up its conservative supporters. So to help them, the administration enlists the help of some conservative radio talk show hosts. We're going to tell you what's going on at the White House.
Also, do the Democrats have two left feet? Even with scandals and other problems affecting some Republicans, some say Democrats may still be left out in the cold come Election Day.
And Michael J. Fox and his affliction on display in a political commercial, to help out some candidates in very tight races. So why are some calling the ads shameless? Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back. The midterm election is exactly two weeks away. And if you're a White House desperately trying to rally your base, what might you do? One thing is to let some conservative talking heads do some of the talking for you. So what's behind what the White House did today? Some say it's a clear political movement.
Our Suzanne Malveaux is at the White House. She's watching this story for us -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, that talking still continues here at the White House in the white tent behind me. It's been going on all day. White House press secretary Tony Snow saying he believes he's done most interviews, about 41 so far. This is an all-out aggressive campaign from the White House to really try to win over -- we are talking about conservative radio talk show hosts, considered friends of the president.
We talked to many of them who are having a tough time swallowing the president's agenda.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX (voice-over): It's a transparent attempt by the White House to rally its Republican base, two weeks before the midterm elections.
MARTHA ZOLLER, WOUN GAINESVILLE, GEORGIA: You know somebody important is coming in when the Secret Service is at the doorway and the media is running through.
MALVEAUX: A tent was pitched for more than three dozen radio hosts, overwhelmingly conservative, invited to gab with the administration's top guns.
NEAL BOORTZ, WSB ATLANTA: We're perfectly willing to institute an amnesty program.
MALVEAUX: For Neal Boortz of WSB out of Atlanta, it was a chance to mouth off about a flight to the homeland security secretary.
BOORTZ: Wow! What a deal, just yesterday at Hartsfield, Mr. Secretary, they swiped my deodorant because it was a three-and-a-half stick.
MALVEAUX: There's a whiff of desperation. Several talk show hosts described, of a White House eager to sell its agenda.
TOM KEENE, BLOOMBERG RADIO: There's an urgency here. There is an urgency in this city. And you can just feel it in that tent over by the north portico. They're focused.
MARK DAVIS, "THE MARK DAVIS SHOW", DALLAS: These are guys who know that the political waters are tough. They know the war is not particularly popular and they know the president is not particularly popular. But they are on a mission. They have to stay on message. They know what they've got to do.
MALVEAUX: What they're doing is driving home one message. White House counselor Dan Bartlett with Boortz.
DAN BARTLETT, COUNSELOR TO THE PRESIDENT: If Democrats take control of this Congress it's not going to be in the best interest of the American people.
MALVEAUX: Millions of Republicans tune in to talk radio. Their hosts playing a critical role in selling the White House's agenda. But some have been frustrated with the Bush administration over issues like Iraq, immigration and big spending. The White House is desperately trying to woo them, too.
BOORTZ: And as soon as they tasted the nectar of power in Washington, DC, all that went out the window. And quite frankly as dangerous as it may be, I'm just kind of fed up with it at this point.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX: And, Wolf, President Bush also is going to be granting some radio interviews to two mainstream networks as well as a network that predominantly serves African Americans. But you can bet the real focus here at the White House is hitting that base -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Suzanne, thanks very much.
While Republicans are scrambling to rally the base, Democrats are trying to avoid some of the mistakes in the past, mistakes that have cost them races they were supposed to win. Let's bring back our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley -- Candy.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Now, Wolf, I talked to a senior aide up on Capitol Hill the other day and jokingly said to him, have you changed your business cards yet to reflect your new majority status and he looked at me and said, listen, never underestimate our ability to blow it. And that's what's on Democratic minds these day.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY (voice-over): Free association, I say Democrat, you say.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't know if it stands for anything now.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Losers. No, I don't mean that like they are losers. I mean it in a form of they're not standing up.
CROWLEY: One may have something to do with the other. Democrats have been the minority in Congress for 12 years. When George Bush leaves the White House, Democrats will have occupied the Oval Office for 12 of the last 40 years. Which brings us to the next question. What is wrong with these people? Number one, no backbone.
DAVID "MUDCAT" SAUNDERS, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: We do not fight back. This wuss factor in the Democratic Party is real.
CROWLEY: Two, all policy, no pulse.
GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER, (D) MT: They keep talking about these issues in a very complicated way, where all the money is coming from and where it's going to go and how long this program is going to last and people are looking at their watch wondering, how do I get out of here?
DOUG HATTAWAY, FORMER GORE ADVISER: Democrats need to stop trying to sell people policy papers and start talking to people's heart as well as their head.
CROWLEY: Ever since the early '70s when Democrats got tagged as the party of acid, amnesty and abortion, they have been on the losing side of the values debate, the defense debate and, oh yes, the guns debate. Al Gore and John Kerry lost every southern state and most of the mid and interior West.
BRUCE REED, DLC: Our biggest problem is that of late, we've been losing elections.
CROWLEY: Maybe this is the year that proves the exception and Democrats will sweep into power. So when I say 2008 Democrats running for president you say?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right now they seem to stand for opposing George Bush so I think they need to figure something else out.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: Now the truth is, this does look like it may be a good year for Democrats, but many in the party who I spoke to said, well, that may be, but it's not because we've gotten it together quite yet. But because Republicans are falling apart.
BLITZER: I've spoken to a lot of Democrats over the past few days and they're deeply worried these last two weeks, the Republicans who are so good at getting money out there and so good at getting their base out there that if they get overly giddy, they're going to let this thing slip away once again. How worried should the Democrats be right now?
CROWLEY: I think they are sort of between this giddy -- they really feel like it's right there and that it's their best chance in the past 12 years. So they're kind of fighting with themselves here. They do know that A, Republicans do have more money and B, they have a better turnout.
What Democrats know they have on their side is anger. Their base voters are really angry. They are going to come to the polls, and if you had to choose between a great turnout machine and angry voters in terms of who you think will turn out, it will be the angry voters.
BLITZER: If the Democrats blow it this time, lose the House, lose the Senate, there's going to be such a demoralizing factor out there, it's going to be very, very depressing for a lot of them. Candy, we'll watch with you. And Candy has got a major, major special. Tell us about what airs tonight, 8:00 p.m. Eastern, part of our "Broken Government" series.
CROWLEY: This is a look at the Democrats and why they have been losing elections. When George Bush leaves office in 2009, over the past 40 years, Democrats will have been in office for 12 of them. You know that they've been the minority on Capitol Hill for 12 years. Why is that? So we went back and looked at it and looked at whether or not they have learned anything since.
BLITZER: All right. Candy, thanks very much. Candy Crowley is part of the best political team on television. You are going to want to join her special tonight, part of our "Broken Government series. Remember, it airs 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Still to come, a well-known actor and his well-known disease at the center of a campaign controversy. Right now, some are asking if it's tasteful or tasteless for the actor Michael J. Fox to engage in embryonic stem cell research, a debate on that point, right now in the midst of a political campaign.
And how much will you be thinking about the Iraq war when you're in the voting booth two weeks from now? In our "Strategy Session", we'll debate how much the war will affect key Senate races. You are going to see it. Stay with us. Jamie Carville and Bay Buchanan are standing by for that.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: You're in THE SITUATION ROOM where new pictures and information are arriving all the time.
Happening now, uttering what many consider to be a dirty word, timetable. The top U.S. military commander in Iraq, General George Casey, says it will take another 12 to 18 months until Iraqi security forces are completely able to take over their own security.
And the U.S. is laying out goals that could lead to fewer U.S. troops in Iraq. We're watching this story.
Two weeks to go. Infinite opportunities to go negative. There is a nasty race unfolding in the Tennessee Senate race right now. Even claims that one side may be playing the race card. We'll talk about that in our "Strategy Session" and hear more about the arguments between Harold Ford Jr. and Bob Corker.
And Wall Street hits yet another record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches an all time high intraday record, that is, reaching over 12,000 today. It's the 11th closing record in 16 sessions. I'm Wolf Blitzer, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Up first let's go to Zain Verjee. She's following a developing story. Zane, I understand some very dramatic video coming in.
VERJEE: We want to take you to Chicago, wolf. A fire has broken out in an empty six story building in the South Loop neighborhood. It's basically affecting the commuters there that are going to be going home this evening. It's going to be a problem because the orange and green lines actually run right next to this building. You can see the smoke coming up, lurching toward the sky.
Ambulances are on the scene but no one has been reportedly injured. Firefighters on the scene trying to this under control. It broke out just before 3:00 p.m. local time. We'll bring you up to date when we can, Wolf, but this the scene right now in Chicago.
BLITZER: All right. Zain, thank you very much. October now, the deadliest month this year for U.S. troops in Iraq. Will the escalating violence there leave key U.S. Senate seats especially vulnerable?
Joining us now in our "Strategy Session", CNN political analysts Democratic strategist James Carville and Bay Buchanan, the president of American Cause.
Listen to what Lindsey Graham, Republican senator, South Carolina, said to the Associated Press. "We're on the verge of chaos and the current plan is not working." He's referring to what's unfolding on the ground in Iraq right now. Another Republican expressing major alarm over this clearly deteriorating situation.
BAY BUCHANAN, AMERICAN CAUSE: Well, there is no question the problem over there in Iraq is serious and it is getting more and more chaotic by the day. I don't think anyone disagrees, including the White House. I think they recognize the real seriousness of the problem and the civil war, or the potential of a civil war getting closer and closer to that point. And they're making changes to what they're doing there on the ground in order to respond to that.
BLITZER: Can the Democrats, when the dust settles in two weeks, take advantage of this Iraq situation and get themselves elected?
JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I think very close to political (inaudible, but Vice President Cheney last week on Rush Limbaugh's show said things are going remarkably well in Iraq. He said it.
BLITZER: He said -- his comment about the last throes of the insurgency of a year and a half was now with hindsight premature.
CARVILLE: But now he says things are remarkably well. I'm sure a year from now he'll say it was premature things were going remarkably well, but he did say it. Look, this is a Bush war. It's Bush's strategy. It's not working. And people are mad about it. And they're going to take out their anger on Republicans.
BLITZER: We're going to get you a different mike over here. As we take a look at the overall situation. Hold on to this one, James, because your mike doesn't seem to be working as well as it should. Raise it up a little bit. Repeat this notion. Because a lot of Democrats as you know, and you're speaking to them all the time, are so nervous right now. They can feel this victory but they can also feel it slipping away in the final two weeks.
CARVILLE: They can. And the party is nervous. I wouldn't call it optimistic. They think that something is going to happen. A lot of people out in the country think the voting machines are going to work against them, that something is going to happen at the last minute. I don't think it's a healthy attitude for a party out of power to have. Nobody is taking anything for granted yet.
BLITZER: I want to get to some states. But this whole notion of the White House now changing its lines. No more stay the course, saying, yes, there is going to be a timeline, a timetable, these are all concessions if you will. The Democrats have been saying that for a while.
BUCHANAN: It's very smart politics. Listen, the Democrats have done an excellent job, they've managed to make certain that Iraq became the number one issue. They tied this expression to the president which he used to say continually, "stay the course." But they misinterpreted it, they made it sound as if he's not changing anything on the ground. He's stay the course, of course, was stay there until we win, until we have a victory.
And what they've interpreted it be is the man will not change what's happening in the country itself. He is making those changes. It's smart, it's sending a message to Americans that the president does know what the problem is, he's moving ahead. And I'm going to tell you Wolf, what James is talking about, the nervousness on the Democratic part, the reason is, is because they peaked three weeks too early. Their peak was last week, we can see movement now.
BLITZER: Let's go through some Senate races and see what's going on. There's a whole bunch of new Mason Dixon polls that are out. Missouri, this is a critical race for both sides right now. Claire McCaskill is the Democrat, the incumbent Republican Jim Talent, 46 to 33, McCaskill ahead, but still within the sampling area of four points.
CARVILLE: The history of incumbents at 43 percent with two weeks to go would win are very, very sparse, almost negligible. And so I feel pretty good about Missouri right now.
BLITZER: So you think Talent is going to lose?
BUCHANAN: No, I don't think Talent is going to lose at all. I think Talent has held his own out there, it's been very, very close for some time. And I think that it's still tight, but that there is every opportunity that he can pull that off. That's a dead heat right now.
BLITZER: Statistically it is a dead heat. Let's go to Montana, the long-time incumbent, Conrad Burns, he's at 43 percent in this new poll. John Testra (ph), the Democratic challenger at 46 percent.
CARVILLE: I think a pattern has emerged in another Republican incumbent at 43. Forty-three is not a good number ...
BLITZER: So that's a rule of thumb for you political analysts that if an incumbent is at 43 he's going to lose?
CARVILLE: It's a bad number.
BUCHANAN: But look at this race, Burns, what does he have going against him, he has the Abramoff tie, he's got close to -- ties to the president, he's got the war, he's been very supportive of. This has been going against him, he's been running way behind. He's closing, that race is closing, it's down to three and if you don't count the leaners, it's within a two. He is pulling that one, that one's closing, we'll see if he closes it fast enough.
BLITZER: In New Jersey, a Democrat, maybe the only Democratic incumbent in a little bit of trouble, right now Menendez at 45 percent, Tom Kean, Jr. at 42 percent, he's the Republican challenger, the son of the former very popular governor.
CARVILLE: You know, it's a tight race, I think Democrats are feeling a little better about it. Again, we see another Republican at 42 here. And he's more -- Kean is more like an incumbent than a normal challenger because of his name and the fact that his father was governor. But I feel better about New Jersey than I did a week ago.
BUCHANAN: But Menendez has exactly the problem that James was talking about, he's an incumbent that can't get beat by 45, 46 percent. So it's clear that that is another dead heat, he has not been able to pull ahead, I think Kean is a fine, just a terrific candidate, he could close that thing and win that state.
BLITZER: We're going to be speaking later with Bob Corker, the Republican candidate for the very close Senate race in Tennessee. He's at 45 percent, Harold Ford, Jr. the congressman is at 43 percent. Four points once again the margin of error. This is very, very close.
CARVILLE: And I think that's a legitimate tossup. I think Democrats really want to see Ford win this, but these numbers indicate that there's the next two weeks or whatever it is, 13 days could be really critical.
BUCHANAN: And there's a recent poll that shows it's two percent now and that indeed Corker is ahead, he's pulling out ...
BLITZER: We're showing 45, 46 ...
BUCHANAN: I'm sorry, he's pulling up two to three points. And I think that there's no question Ford made a major mistake this weekend, he showed a little bit of arrogance, a little bit of flippancy. Went out there in that publicity stunt, breaking into the press conference of his opponent, I think that was a mistake and I think ...
CARVILLE: Like running this ad is not a mistake?
BLITZER: Playing the race card with the Republican National Committee in running this ad?
BUCHANAN: I didn't see the race card at all, I don't read it that way. I think one way or the other, you could have read it that way. They are deliberately trying to make it sound like that. But I'll tell you, Corker is running a smart race, he had nothing to do with that ad, he's down there and he appears to be the man that's in touch with Tennesseans and that's who's going to win.
BLITZER: You're chuckling.
CARVILLE: Yes, of course he had something to do with the ad and if he didn't want the ad to run he'd simply say this is an outrage, take it down.
BLITZER: He said that.
BUCHANAN: That's exactly what he said ...
BLITZER: You're not listening to him.
CARVILLE: Right.
BLITZER: All right, outside of Washington in Virginia, George Allen, right now in this Mason Dixon poll at 47 percent. The incumbent Republican Jim Webb, the Democratic challenger at 43 percent. A lot of Democrats really could taste this but it looks like Webb is slightly pulling -- being pulled down.
CARVILLE: I think that Webb's -- I think he's got a pretty good chance. I mean I know this poll says that again it's an incumbent at 47, my gut tells me Webb is going to do fine here.
BUCHANAN: Webb had the momentum, he lost it about last week, it looks like momentum has come back to Allen, he's now pulling -- opening it up and I think ...
CARVILLE: Do you think there's any race the Republicans -- just out of curiosity, I'm sitting here listening to you ...
BLITZER: Here's a race I suspect she believes that Republicans will lose, Ohio. Right now Sherrod Brown, the Democratic challenger is at 48, Mike DeWine at 40 percent. An incumbent at 47 percent with two weeks out, that's tough.
BUCHANAN: And in the state of Ohio, particularly tough where there has been some corruption in the top of the governor's ticket. The present governor, not the -- in the governor's race, the Republican is going to go down in flames, that's going to hurt DeWine as well. It's a very, very tough uphill battle for governor.
BLITZER: We've have to leave it there, but we have two weeks to do a lot of talking about all of this. James and Bay thanks very much.
CARVILLE: Thank you Wolf, appreciate it.
BLITZER: And they are part of the best political team on television. Candidates from both parties will spend an estimated $2.6 billion this election season. Now some liberal activists are making sure nothing gets left on the table, pressuring Democrats in safe seats to turn over some of their funds to more competitive races. But is it working? Abbi Tatton with the story, Abbi?
ABBI TATTON, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, its called use it or lose it. This new online push to persuade 70, "ultra safe house Democrats to turn over about 30 percent of their campaign cash to competitive races in the final days before the election." This comes days after an anonymous Web site appeared online urging Senator John Kerry to turn over funds leftover from his presidential bid.
The new campaign is from liberal blogger Chris Bowers, who writes for the site, mydd.com. What Bowers has done is list all these Democrats and all the funds they have on hand, over $50 million. Bowers has teamed up with Move On who is sending out 100,000 e-mails urging people to call the Democrats and tell them to pony up the money. An early taker, Congressman Barney Frank who announces at his Web site, $250,000 of new funds for Democrats.
A spokesman for Congressman Frank saying that this was spurred in part by the online campaign. Others, not so fast. A spokeswoman for Congressman Marty Meehan, who's over $4 million of campaign funds made him a target for this campaign. A spokeswoman saying, they received calls but no plans right now to move that campaign cash, noting that the congressman will continue to raise funds directly for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Abbi, thank you. And as we head into the crucial midterm elections, stay up to date with the CNN political ticker. Check it out yourself, go to CNN.com/ticker. Still to come, the actor Michael J. Fox who's long struggled with Parkinson's disease, trying to win votes for a Missouri Democrat.
And is time for a timetable in Iraq? Our Michael Ware is on the ground there and looks at the words and the reality. Stay with us.
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BLITZER: Back now to the shifting strategy and the shifting timetable for the war in Iraq. Top U.S. officials are urging Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security within the next year and a half. That's not linked to a U.S. troop withdrawal but our latest poll suggest Americans are looking for such a link. Fifty seven percent of those polled say they favor setting a timetable for a pullout, 40 percent say they're opposed.
And joining us now from Baghdad, our correspondent, Michael Ware. Michael, we heard the U.S. Military Commander General Casey suggest today it could take another 12 months to 18 months for Iraqi troops to be positioned to take charge of their own security. Is that based on what you've seen on the ground? And you've been there on and off for more than three years. Is that realistic?
BLITZER: Well, Wolf, I think you put it best when you said that General Casey suggested that the Iraqi security forces might be capable of defending themselves in 12 to 18 months. The word he used in the press conference was "I believe." There was no clear commitment on this. Whilst on one hand yes it does spell out some kind of time frame, which may be a useful mechanism for measuring developmental progress in a very lose way.
On the other hand, Wolf, we've heard this so many times before. We've had so many other deadlines where time frames stated, slipped and passed us by. That honestly the statement today is almost meaningless, because there's always a heavy caveat.
Not only is it just a belief by the commander on the ground here, but it's also as always conditions based. U.S. troops can't withdraw on any given date unless the situation on the ground permits and that's implicit I believe in General Casey's statement today -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Do these words though, suggesting a timeline, suggesting that the United States wants the Iraqi government to meet certain benchmarks along this timeline, is it likely to have an impact on this Iraqi government, which seems so fragile to begin with and forcing them to deal with these death squads and these militias?
WARE: Well, the U.S. is clearly ramping up the pressure, Wolf. I mean they want to see results. They've bet their house on Prime Minister Maliki, whom one of his most senior security people today privately admitted to me or confirmed to me, has relatively little power within the government and relies primarily on the American forces for any kind of muscle.
And if it's not the American forces, he's looking to Muqtada al- Sadr and his Mahdi militia, whose political support helped land him as the compromised candidate for the prime minister. There's very little that Maliki can force through. Now we heard Ambassador Khalilzad say that essentially the Iraqi government, Maliki has agreed to agree on a timeline by the end of the year.
So we need to be very careful of the words here. And as we saw the White House spokesman say just yesterday, even when it comes to the end of the year, the U.S. is not making any ultimatums. Quite frankly, it's got very little to back up any ultimatum -- Wolf.
BLITZER: One final question, we don't have a lot of time Michael. This bulking option, dividing up Iraq into three separate parts, a Kurdish part in the north, a Shiite part in the south and a Sunni part sort of in the central, the White House says that's a nonstarter. What are they saying where you are?
WARE: Absolutely, it's a nonstarter. I mean to fracture this state like this would have drastic domestic implications and regional implications. And this issue touches upon so many others that Ambassador Khalilzad and General Casey referred to today. From the equal distribution of oil revenues to the Sunni insurgency to Iran to the militias. I mean, this very much is just the tip of a massive iceberg. Wolf?
BLITZER: All right Michael, thanks very much. Michael Ware reporting for us from Baghdad.
Up next, he's making the hard sell for stem cell research. The actor Michael J. Fox delivers a pitch for a Senate candidate in a very key race. We'll be right back. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: His face and name are very well known and so is his disease, Michael J. Fox, the actor who's long publicly talked about having Parkinson's, is now at the center of a campaign controversy. Let's go to our Mary Snow, she's in New York, she's joining us to explain -- Mary.
MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, it started out as a powerful moment during the World Series. Something you wouldn't see in the stands but at home during a commercial break.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SNOW (voice-over): You've seen him before campaigning on behalf of stem cell research, but this year television viewers can clearly see the toll Parkinson's disease has taken on Michael J. Fox.
MICHAEL J. FOX, ACTOR: They say all politics is local, but it's not always the case. What you do in Missouri matters to millions of Americans, Americans like me.
SNOW: Fox is campaigning for Missouri U.S. Senate Candidate and Democrat Claire McCaskill. In the ad, Fox urges voters not to support Republican Senator Jim Talent.
FOX: Unfortunately, Senator Jim Talent opposes expanding stem cell research. Senator Talent even wanted to criminalize the science that gives us a chance for hope.
SNOW: Fox did similar ads for Democrats in Wisconsin and Maryland. It drew a strongly deliberately response from conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh, who on his nationally syndicated show, called into question why Fox was shaking so much.
RUSH LIMBAUGH, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: This is really shameless folks. This is really shameless of Michael J. Fox. Either he didn't take his medication or he's acting, one or the two.
SNOW: Some conservatives who oppose embryonic stem cell research don't agree with the way Limbaugh handled it.
RAMESH PONNURU, NATIONAL REVIEW SENIOR EDITOR: I don't think Republicans are going to be hurt because one talk show host, however influential said something foolish, although it wasn't helpful. I think the key thing that Republicans are going to have to do is explain that these ads oversimplify the issues.
SNOW: Embryonic stem cell research has gained much attention in Missouri because there's a state ballot initiative that basically supports stem cell research and any therapies that come of it. Proponents of the initiative have spent nearly $3 million in advertising, compared to the 111,000 from the opposition. Still, there is competition on the air waves.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Embryonic stem cell research will require millions of eggs and women will pay a terrible price.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SNOW: While campaigning, Fox has taken issue of critics of embryonic stem cell research who've raised concerns about human cloning and egg farms. He said he is opposed to that -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Mary Snow reporting for us. Mary thanks very much. Let's check in with Lou Dobbs, he's getting ready for his program that begins at the top of the hour -- Lou.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, thank you. Coming up at 6 p.m. here on CNN, tonight we're reporting on the worsening outlook for middle class Americans as the war on the middle class continues to escalate. Working men and women taking cash out of their homes like never before trying to pay for basic living expenses. We'll have that special report.
And as many as 10 states could face disaster on Election Day, many of them because of persistent and unresolved problems with e- voting machines. Our special report, "Democracy at Risk."
And he calls himself the toughest sheriff in the country and he's on the front lines of our illegal immigration and border security crisis, Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County, Arizona wants prisoners in his jails to speak English. He's among our guests. All of that and a great deal more, coming up at the top of the hour here on CNN. Please join us. Wolf, back to you.
BLITZER: Thanks very much Lou, we certainly will. Up ahead, an update on that story we're following in Chicago, it's developing. A major fire snarling rush hour. We're going to check the latest developments.
And then in our 7:00 p.m. eastern hour, Jeanne Moos and some so- called ugly politics in New York. Did Hillary Rodham Clinton's opponent have nasty things to say about the way she used to look? Stay with us, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
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BLITZER: Check back with Zain Verjee for a quick look at some other important stories making news. Hi Zain.
VERJEE: Hi Wolf. Updating you now on a story we told you a little bit earlier, firefighters are battling a multi-alarm fire in Chicago. It's in a vacant building in the south loop neighborhood. The fire broke out on the third floor of the former George Diamond Steakhouse. There are no injuries that have been reported but the blaze could delay thousands of commuters that are trying to get home in rush hour.
Tropical storm Paul is heading toward the southern tip of the Baja, California peninsula and even though it's weakening, it could still bring heavy flooding. Forecasters warn it could dump up to 10 inches of rain on Mexico's mainland. Some encouraging news for parents concerned about the safety of the flu vaccine on their children. The biggest study ever to look at the side affects of flu shots confirms that the vaccine is safe for babies and for toddlers. The federally funded study appears in tomorrow's "Journal of the American Medical Association." Almost half of the study's co-authors have financial ties to vaccine manufacturers, but the industry had no direct role in the study -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Zain, thank you for that. Zain Verjee reporting. Up next, another recall of batteries for notebook computers. We'll tell you what Sony is now doing and what you should be doing. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
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BLITZER: Welcome back. Sony is voluntarily recalling hundreds of thousands of laptop batteries that pose a potential fire hazard to consumers. This brings the total number of recalled batteries worldwide to about 10 million. Is your computer among them? Let's go to our internet reporter, Jacki Schechner -- Jacki.
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, once again, we're talking about these rechargeable lithium ION batteries that are made by Sony and are in different types of notebook or laptop computers. Sony is now recalling an additional 340,000 batteries that are in notebooks made by Fujitsu, Gateway, Toshiba and Sony itself. They make the VAIO notebook computer.
What you need to do is go on to your individual manufacturer and find out if your make and model is included. This started with a massive battery recall by Dell, it also then moved on to Apple. We also included IBM, Lenovo, a Toshiba earlier recall. So we're talking again close to 10 million notebook computers that are involved in this recall.
The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission has a full Web site with all sorts of links and information. You can find out again if your make and model is affected by this. Now the Consumer Product Safety Commission says they have 16 incidents where these batteries have overheated. But again these incidents are earlier recalls, not the 340,000 that have been added. So it's just a note that there's no concern right now about those but this does pile on to that larger number -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Jacki, thanks very much. Let's note, I'll be back here in THE SITUATION ROOM in one hour. The two candidates battling for that crucial Senate seat in Tennessee, Harold Ford, Jr. and Bob Corker, they'll be joining me 7:00 p.m. eastern, it's a bitter political battle you'll want to see that. Let's go to Lou Dobbs in the meantime -- Lou.
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