Return to Transcripts main page
The Situation Room
Deadly California Wildfire Forces Residents to Flee Homes; Bush Signs Border Security Bill
Aired October 26, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: To our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now: A deadly wildfire in Southern California now forcing people to flee their homes. We're following this developing story.
Also, border security is in the spotlight. A dozen days before America votes. It's 4:00 p.m. here in Washington, where the president signs a bill that falls short of his broader plan for immigration reform. He is giving Republicans, though, something they can run on?
Also this hour, the president's defender in chief, while Laura Bush shows her warm and friendly side of the campaign trail she's taking the gloves off, a little bit, at least in a interview with our Ed Henry.
Plus, "Sex & the City" voters: That's what they're called. Guess who is courting Kerry Bradshaw wannabes? We're going to tell you why young single women are wanted at the polls.
I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM
Coming up, we'll have extensive coverage from the campaign trail and the battle for immigration reform; also, what is happening in Iraq.
But let's begin with a wildfire burning out of control in Southern California, right now, near Palm Springs. It's fierce, ferocious, and it's now fatal. Three firefighters are dead, two others are hurt, hundreds of people -- worried residents, specifically, have fled their homes. The California governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, said 700 firefighters are desperately battling the blaze right now. And at one point it trapped as many as 400 people at a park. The fire has burned about 4000 acres so far.
Let's get some more on the situation. On the phone, joining us from Riverside County, is Don Camp, one of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection officials.
Don, give our viewers the latest. What is the latest with this fire? CAPT. DON CAMP, CA. DEPT. OF FORESTRY & FIRE PROTECTION: The Esperanza fired started at 1:12 this morning at the corner of Esperanza and San Grigornio (ph) and in the community of Cabazon. At the current time the fire is 4,500-plus acres. We are confirming that there have been three firefighter fatalities, as well as two additional firefighters seriously burned in the incident.
BLITZER: Do we know the circumstances surrounding the death of those three firefighters?
CAMP: The only information we have is the firefighters were actively involved in fighting the 4000-plus-acre fire at that time.
BLITZER: How many people have been evacuated so far, Don?
CAMP: We have mandatory evacuations in place for the communities of Twin Pines and Poppet Flats.
BLITZER: Specifically, how close is this fire to Palm Springs?
CAMP: The fire is approximately 15 to 20 miles to the southwest of the community of Palm Springs.
BLITZER: One final question, before I let you go. The winds, the situation right now, does it look like it's going to exacerbate this fire or ease it?
CAMP: We are having erratic winds on the fire. Winds are sustained at 18 to 25 miles an hour with gusts up to 30 out of the east, which is pushing the fire making a major push on the fire to the southwest.
BLITZER: All right, Don. We'll check back with you. Don Camp from the California Department of Forestry & Fire Protection, thanks very much. We will continue to stay on top of the story, wish all of our viewers out there only the best in dealing with this horrible situation.
Let's turn to politics right now, 12 days before America votes. President Bush is on the campaign trail right now. He's stumping for Republican candidates in Iowa and Michigan. And he's pledged to crack down on border security, earlier, right here in Washington, Mr. Bush signed legislation he calls an important step toward immigration reform. It gives the green light to build nearly 700 miles of fencing along the U.S. border with Mexico.
It's less than Mr. Bush wanted, but will it make an impression on voters? Will it have any indent whatsoever on the problem of illegal immigration?
Bill Schneider is keeping tabs on the immigration wars and the battle for congress. Let's go now to Elaine Quijano, she is on the road with the president, right now.
Elaine, update our viewers on what has happened today. ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, THE SITUATION ROOM: Well, Wolf, President Bush will be headed here to Warren, Michigan later this afternoon.
Earlier today, as you mentioned, the president back in Washington, gave some of his fellow Republicans what they wanted, that public bill signing of legislation authorizing that border fence that you mentioned. Now, the purpose of the event really is to demonstrate that House Republicans, specifically, are taking action to get tough on border security, but it was also a prominent reminder of what President Bush himself did not get, namely, comprehensive immigration legislation.
Of course, the president making clear at the event today he thinks there's more work to be done, saying that he still believes a temporary guest worker program should be part of an ultimate solution to dealing with the problem of illegal immigration. Here is President Bush in earlier today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We must face the reality that millions of illegal immigrants are already here. They should not be given an automatic pass to citizenship. That is amnesty. I oppose amnesty. There is a rational middle ground between granting an automatic path to citizenship for every illegal immigrant and a program of mass deportation. And I look forward to working with Congress to find that middle ground.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUIJANO: And later, President Bush hit the campaign trail. First stop, Des Moines, Iowa, where he was stumping for congressional candidate, Jeff Lamberdy (ph). Later this afternoon, as I noted, the president will be heading here to Warren, Michigan.
And just a note on the local politics here; of course, in the state of Michigan, the hot topics are the economy and jobs. Certainly -- also the future of the Big Three automakers. The White House saying today that it is going to be holding a meeting with those Big Three automakers, but holding off until after the midterm elections so sometimes in November for that meeting -- Wolf.
BLITZER: A quick question, Elaine. The 700-mile fence along the border between the United States and Mexico. This was an authorization bill; no money was appropriated specifically in this bill. The White House suggesting there is some money in an earlier Homeland Security appropriations bill.
How much money? Do we know? Has the White House said, A, how much money specifically, will be earmarked to build this fence? And, B, when will the fence be constructed?
QUIJANO: Well, very good questions, Wolf. What I can tell you is certainly the White House is, in fact, saying a couple of weeks ago, the money for that, $1.2 billion, going to, in part, to the construction of a fence. But, at the same time, as you well know, it's a daunting task. In fact, people who want to get tough on border security say a 700-mile fence just won't do it. But in and of itself to get something like that built as far as a time frame is really unclear at this point if and when something that like can be completed, Wolf.
BLITZER: As they say here in Washington, Elaine, it's one thing to authorize the construction of something, it's another thing to appropriate the funds. That hasn't happened yet. Elaine, thank you very much for that report.
Americans are divided on the idea of building a fence along the U.S./Mexican border. Our CNN poll shows 45 percent approve. But a majority, 53 percent, oppose a border fence. Border security and illegal immigration are driving some key House and Senate races. Let's bring in our Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider -- Bill.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Wolf, some Republicans are counting on the immigration issue to save their majority in Congress. Let's see how it's playing on the campaign trail.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (voice over): Back in June, Republican Brian Bilbray won a hotly contested election for a House seat in California by demanding tougher border security. Republicans finally had an issue. Voters biggest complaint? The burden on taxpayers. Candidates know it.
GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, (D) ARIZONA CONG. CANDIDATE: There is a big concern right now health care is not being delivered properly, that education is not being delivered properly. And that illegal immigrants are the benefactors of taxpayer dollars.
SCHNEIDER: Wait a minute. She's a Democrat. By stressing her commitment to border security in this Arizona border district, she is undercutting the appeal of her Republican opponent, who is running a virtually one-issue campaign on border security. Look at the Tennessee Senate race. The Democrat takes a hard line on border security.
ANNOUNCER, CAMPAIGN AD: Harold Ford Jr., will get control of our borders, get tough on illegals and employers who break the law.
SCHNEIDER: The Republican calls him a phony.
ANNOUNCER, CAMPAIGN AD: Votes against border security and against putting troops on the border. Then says he wants to fight illegal immigration? What kind of man is Harold Ford?
SCHNEIDER: In Colorado, a Republican House candidate is running as the tough guy on illegal immigration.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The differences are big.
SCHNEIDER: No, they're not, says the Democrat.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't think we differ by much.
SCHNEIDER: He points to tough action by Colorado's Democratic legislature.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We made it tougher for employers to continue to hire illegal aliens. We limited benefits to the bare bones for people who are here illegally.
SCHNEIDER: And what has the federal government done?
LYNN BARTELS, ROCKY MOUNTAIN NEWS: It is perceived that a Republican president and Republican Congress haven't done anything about immigration.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: Bottom line? We asked people which party would do a better job handling illegal immigration, and neither party ends up with a clear advantage on this issue -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Bill Schneider reporting for us. Thank you, Bill.
Let's get to a life and death election issue right now. That would be the war in Iraq. The U.S. military death toll climbed today to 2,809. And 96 U.S. troops have died in Iraq so far in October, the deadliest month this year.
In Baghdad, the search continues for a missing American soldier who worked as a translator. Commanders fear he was abducted, but no group has claimed responsibility.
Here in Washington, the Bush administration is blasting reports that President Bush and the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki are at odds over benchmarks for military and political progress by Iraq's government. The Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld let loose on that subject today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD RUMSFELD, U.S. SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: You're looking for some sort of a guillotine to come flowing down if some date is not met. That is not what this is about. It's complicated stuff. It's difficult.
We're looking out into the future. No one can predict the future with absolute certainty. So you ought to just back off, take a look at it, relax, understand that it's complicated, it's difficult, that honorable people are working on these things together. There isn't any daylight between them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Rumsfeld did not stop there. He complained that General George Casey's announcement of this week of those benchmarks for progress in Iraq got twisted by election year spin. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUMSFELD: We're in the political season. You know that! And that is what's happening. People are trying to take what he said, and turn it, in a way that it plays the way they'd like to see it play.
He didn't say -- he did not leave anyone with the impression that he was thinking about more troops, or fewer troops, or the same number of troops. He just gave a truthful answer.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: The president top spokesman is also weighing on the Bush/Maliki dispute. The White House Press Secretary Tony Snow saying comments by Prime Minister Maliki were in his words, quote, "lost in translation and taken out of context". Snow says the U.S. and Iraqi governments are working together. We are going to have reports in our next our White House Correspondent Suzanne Malveaux, our correspondent in Baghdad, Michael Ware.
Our own Jack Cafferty, he's standing by to weigh in on this in just a few moments, as well.
Meanwhile, the First Lady Laura Bush is rushing to her husband's defense against charges he's in a state of denial about the war in Iraq. She also had some choice words about claim she wanted Donald Rumsfeld to get the ax. Our White House Correspondent Ed Henry has been speaking with the first lady, watching her on the campaign trail. Ed is here in THE SITUATION ROOM, Ed?
ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, I was in Minnesota and Indiana yesterday with the first lady for an interview. I followed her on the campaign trail. She's in high demand because of her high favorability rating as well as her softer image, but in this interview she also showed some sharp elbows as she defended her husband and her very first comments on the Bob Woodward book.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY (on camera): Big day on the trail?
FIRST LADY LAURA BUSH: Big day on the trail. Three stops.
HENRY (voice over): Morning in Minnesota. The first lady is wildly popular in swing states. And it's easy to see why.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mrs. Bush could literally be a Minnesotan because Minnesotans are nice.
HENRY: But ask about Bob Woodward's book claiming the president has not been straight with the American people about the level of violence in Iraq, and you see another side of Mrs. Bush.
L. BUSH: Well, absolutely, I think that's wrong. Of course, the president has been frank from the very, very first speech he gave to the Congress in September, after the September 11th attack. Talking about this is a long war. The enemy can make a big show on television, like they did for the last month for the bloody last month that we had in Iraq.
HENRY: The first lady bristles when pressed on Woodward's suggest that she backed then White House Chief of Staff Andy Card's push to remove Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
L. BUSH: Those quotes, of mine, were in quotes, and the author didn't call me, and check. It just didn't happen.
HENRY (on camera): You wanted Rumsfeld out?
L. BUSH: Are you just trying to continue to give the quotes, I said I didn't say?
HENRY: OK, without any quotes, just in general, the book claims that you wanted to push Rumsfeld out.
L. BUSH: No, absolutely not. That is absolutely not true.
HENRY: The first lady is treated like a rock star on the road, smoothing out the administration's rough edges, a soothing voice in a time of tumult that may help with female and independent voters. But Mrs. Bush is not out here just stumping for candidates; she's also stumping for her husband's legacy.
(Voice over): That's why she even feels an unlikely kinship with her predecessor, Hillary Clinton, who recently weighed in on the spat over which of their husbands did a better job at fighting Osama bin Laden.
SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, D (NY): If my husband, and his national security team, had been shown a classified report entitled "bin Laden Determined to Attack Inside the United States," he would of taken it more seriously.
L. BUSH: Well, she's just trying to defend her husband. And that's what I'm trying to do, too, as I go around here. I know what kind of job my husband does and I know it's a great job.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY: The first lady's campaign schedule is literally evolving by the day. Republican officials re-jiggering it as they look at polls and see where they can deploy her best. Tomorrow it's going to be Florida, Saturday, a trifecta of New York, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. There is even talk she may be going back to Tennessee, as you know, a very hot Senate race, the Democrat, Harold Ford, Jr., the Republican Bob Corker. She's really become one of the most potent weapons for the Republicans in this campaign.
BLITZER: She's really wanted by Republicans in trouble to come out and make appearances with them as opposed to her husband?
HENRY: That's right. But she bristled at that, as well, when I said the notion is your husband is so unpopular, you're the one that is out there more. She said, no, that's not true. We're both out there a lot. And as you know today he's in Michigan and Iowa. But it's the first lady who is going to the sort of swing states, where a controversial visit from the president could tip it against the Republicans. She's the one they're putting in some of these key states that are purple or bluer, that lean Democrat or in the middle. She's the one who brings in the independent voters.
BLITZER: All right, Henry, good work. Thanks very much. Ed Henry, reporting for us.
And remember Ed Henry, Bill Schneider, and Elaine Quijano, they are all part of the best political team on television.
Also for the latest campaign news at any time, check out the political ticker. Go to cnn.com/ticker.
Jack Cafferty has got "The Cafferty File."
Jack, did I tell our viewers you're part of the best political team on television as well?
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: Well, I appreciate that, thank you, Wolf.
Five more U.S. troops were killed in Iraq today; 96 of our soldiers have died there so far in October, and we've got almost a week to go.
In the meantime, the Bush White House and the Iraqi government are busy playing word games. First, President Bush said the U.S. is working with Iraq's government to come up with "benchmarks" for progress there. That's another word for timetable. But since they said they'll never set a timetable, they're going to use benchmarks instead.
Then Iraq's prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki accused U.S. officials of grandstanding right before the midterm elections. He said that no one has a right to set a timetable for the Iraqi government. And, now, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow is scurrying around trying to explain what he thinks al-Maliki meant. As though the man is not capable of speaking for himself.
Snow claims that al-Maliki was actually answering a question about whether U.S. troops will be withdrawn in 18 months, not about benchmarks for Iraqis providing their own security. And while they all talk, American soldiers just keep dying there every single day.
With a week and a half to go before the elections, here's the question: When it comes to Iraq, who do you believe the Bush administration, or Iraq's prime minister?
E-mail your thoughts to caffertyfile@cnn.com or go to cnn.com/cafferty file. Wolf?
A lot of our viewers are probably going to say neither one of those. They're going to believe neither Nouri al-Maliki or the Bush administration. CAFFERTY: Some of them already have, actually.
BLITZER: I suspect we'll get a lot of people who will say neither to that. Jack, thanks. We'll get back to you.
Coming up, he's the poster boy for corruption here in Washington, but the Jack Abramoff affect is being felt on the campaign trail as far away as Montana. Up next a Big Sky battle that could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. Candy Crowley is standing by with that.
Plus, why is this candidate running away from his party? Will Michael Steele's strategy work? I'll ask Bill Bennett and Donna Brazile in today's "Strategy Session."
Plus, the election sets a new record. We're going to tell you what it is, that's in today's political radar. Much more of our coverage coming up. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: There she is, Zain Verjee, she's back in Atlanta today for a quick check of some other important stories making news.
Hi, Zain.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN NEWS ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: Hi, Wolf. Perilous plumes of smoke and flames leaping up to 30 feet in the air. Firefighters trying to beat back this blaze at an Iowa warehouse, containing cases of motor oil. The Stone Oil Company building is near Council Bluffs. Company officials say the warehouse is destroyed but that no employees are hurt. One firefighter was treated for smoke inhalation.
Now from a red-hot situation to an ice cold one, parts of Colorado are like a winter wonderland right now. A fast and furious snowstorm dumped up to two feet of snow on some parts. Hundreds of miles of roads are shut down. Over 100 flights at the Denver International Airport have been canceled and the heavy snow has snapped electrical lines to thousand of homes leaving some 25,000 people without power.
In Afghanistan, Afghan officials say that between 30 and 80 civilians died yesterday in a NATO military strike targeting suspected Taliban militants. Officials say it happened in southern Afghanistan. NATO disputes the number of people killed, saying their preliminary view found only 12 civilians killed. NATO says it can't confirm whether those killed died because of NATO or Taliban action.
And in Cape Town, South Africa, some taxi drivers protest against the police. They're upset about what they claim is police harassment. The drivers stoned city buses, even hijacking two and setting one on fire. There are reports of several people being injured -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Zain, thanks very much. Zain Verjee reporting. As we count down to congressional elections President Bush is preparing to give an endangered incumbent a hand. The president is due to campaign for Senator Conrad Burns in Montana, one week from today. Burns clearly on the ropes right now in large part because of the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal. And Burns's opponent, the Democrat Jon Tester, is hoping voters don't forget that. Here is our Senior Political Correspondent Candy Crowley.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Well, sure, they talk about other things, Democrat Jon Tester.
JON TESTER, (D) MONTANA SENATE CANDIDATE: We still have some health care problems, what I hear about when I go around a lot of towns in this state.
CROWLEY: They talk about other things because much of Montana doesn't have much to do with Washington. Republican Senator Conrad Burns:
SEN. CONRAD BURNS, (R) MONTANA CANDIDATE FOR SENATE: I don't think I've seen a cattle market like it, you know? And I bought some steers earlier and I thought I just paid a terrible price for them, but I really didn't.
CROWLEY: But this Senate race is not about other things. It's about Conrad Burns and the company he keeps. Remember this guy? Jack Abramoff, the Republican lobbyist who pleaded guilty to conspiring to bribe public officials? It's about him.
ANNOUNCER, CAMPAIGN AD: While voting for tax breaks for oil companies, pork barrel earmarks, and getting millions for a client of Jack Abramoff. Conrad Burns, he's been in Washington too long.
BURNS: I don't know who Abramoff influenced, but he never influenced me.
CROWLEY: Burns had influence over projects of interest to some of Abramoff's clients; he also got campaign money from them. The cash was returned, and there is no proof of anything illegal, but Burns can't shake it.
BURNS: I've been putting up with it for 18 months!
TESTER: I wanted to give you a quick call to see if you had any questions about the campaign.
CROWLEY: Tester, an organic farmer with a family that goes back for generations here, runs a low-key, unassuming campaign. He pushes his roots in Montana and frames the Burns/Abramoff connection as proof that Burns has gone big city.
TESTER: We have roots that go deep. And we love this state and we will not go to Washington and get Potomac fever, as Senator Burns has done. CROWLEY: Burns is a gaff prone, boisterous, back slapping politician who will not be out-Montana-ed, but while Tester sells roots, Burns reach.
BURNS: Well, when you look at who has the seniority, the effectiveness, and the experience, you're looking at him.
CROWLEY: Even without Abramoff, Tester probably would have been looking good in this anti-war, anti-incumbent, anti-Republican atmosphere, but Abramoff piled it on.
TESTER: I think it's helped, yes. Because I think it has pointed out who Conrad Burns is.
CROWLEY: In response to the stiffest challenge of his career, Burns is counting on a crack voter turnout operation and, of course, his experience.
BURNS: I've never had an easy one. Of course, it's not our first rodeo.
CROWLEY: Polls indicate Montana is tossup. Candy Crowley, CNN, Billings, Montana.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Up next, it's the surprise race of the campaign, and also one of the nastiest. How low can they go in the Senate battle in Virginia?
Plus, much more on Donald Rumsfeld explosive talk today on the war in Iraq. We're going to go live to the Pentagon for the play-by- play. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.
In our "Strategy Session" today, hot issues and close races, in the battle for control of the Senate. Joining us now, CNN Political Analyst and Democratic Strategist Donna Brazile, and CNN Contributor Bill Bennett; he's the host of the radio program "Morning in America."
Guys, thanks very much for coming in.
Maryland, right outside of Washington, D.C., an important race this year. A lot of people thought it was going to be relatively easy for Ben Cardin, the Democratic politician, to easily defeat the Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele, but it's shaping up to be a contest.
DONNA BRAZILE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, the race right now, Mr. Cardin has 12-point lead; he's been endorsed by all of the major newspapers. He's winning in all of the swing counties, Baltimore, Ann Arundel, Howard County. The key thing right now is the Washington suburbs. Michael Steele is from P.G. County, he was born in the District of Columbia, but he's very familiar with that area. I think if Ben Cardin can wrap up the Washington suburbs this is not going to be a close race. Of course, Steele is winning in western Maryland and the Eastern Shore.
BLITZER: He is an African-American Republican, who is really -- if you watch his ads, and if you live here in Washington you see him on television. He's really running away from, A, the president, and B, the Republican Party.
BILL BENNETT, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, he's running for the Senate in what we call Massachusetts on the Chesapeake, you know? This is what, the second most liberal state in the Union. It's my state. He's a friend, a close personal friend. He's good enough for me. He's conservative enough for me.
Twelve points? You mean 1.2.
BRAZILE: Twelve points.
BENNETT: You missed that.
(CROSSTALK)
BENNETT: It's a close -- no, I think it's a much closer race than that.
(CROSSTALK)
BRAZILE: It is, but let me tell you, Michael -- Michael Steele, who has been running away from the Republicans, brought in Sean Hannity. That's not going to help him make his case that he is somehow independent of the Republicans and -- and the so-called conservative base.
BLITZER: And Ben Cardin and the Democrats are not letting him. The ads that they are running keep showing him together with Bush at the convention...
BENNETT: Right.
BLITZER: ... and keep showing all the things that he has said in favor of the president over these past few years.
(CROSSTALK)
BENNETT: But what he has said is that he's an independent, independent-minded. And I think he's made that case. In the debate, he showed a lot of independence. He did a very good job...
BLITZER: Donna...
BENNETT: ... in the debate, a very sophisticated guy.
BLITZER: ... I have seen one estimate that about a quarter, 25 percent, of the registered voters in the state of Maryland are African-Americans.
BRAZILE: That is correct.
BLITZER: He is an -- he is the highest ranking African-American in the history of the state of Maryland. At least, that's what someone has told me.
How will the African-American voters in the state of Maryland, mostly Democrat, how will they respond?
BRAZILE: Well, the good news is that Kweisi Mfume, who challenged Mr. Cardin in the primary, has endorsed Ben Cardin. And, as a result, I think Al Wynn, the congressman from the -- the suburbs, as well as Elijah Cummings, they have all rallied behind Ben Cardin.
So, I think that Mr. Cardin will get a sizable black vote. But, look, rest assured that Michael Steele is someone that African- Americans know, and he will probably get double digits in African- American support.
BLITZER: If he does well with the African-American voters in Maryland, he has a shot.
BENNETT: He surely has a shot. I -- I think this could be a real surprise. And I wouldn't be surprised. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he wins this race.
BLITZER: All right.
Let's move on to Tennessee, another African-American running in Tennessee, Harold Ford Jr., as we all know by now, against the former mayor of Chattanooga, Bob Corker.
What is your sense right now, because the polls show this back and forth? It's clearly within the margin of error. This is a very close contest. And it's been very, very nasty.
BENNETT: Well, reciprocally to what Donna said -- she talked about how attractive Steele is -- Harold Ford is a very attractive guy, and has run a mostly very smart campaign -- I think a couple of missteps in the last few days, stepping into that campaign activity that Corker was running.
It looks like Corker is pulling ahead a little bit. And the ads are continuing to go. I think Tennessee is a tough state for Ford. And I think people are still not sure where he will be. He's run very successful ads. He has been smart. He's supporting Lieberman, which is a very interesting thing. But, you know, he's in Tennessee. Think of all those crosscurrents.
BLITZER: Will -- will that really nasty Republican National Committee ad that was run in Tennessee, that some say had a racial overtone, has that backfired on the Republicans, and brought some sympathy and support for Harold Ford Jr.?
BRAZILE: You know, I spent a year of my life in Tennessee, of course, working for Al Gore.
And Tennesseans were -- were basically dismayed at that ad. Harold is doing very well in the metropolitan regions. He's making inroads in the rural area. I think this ad -- when we look back on -- on election night, this ad will have had a small impact on Harold Ford's ability to attract the white vote and others.
But Harold Ford is doing really -- really good. There's now a poll that shows that Harold is now two points up. That's a Democratic poll. but I -- this is -- this race never should have been close. This was supposed to be a Republican seat.
BLITZER: Well...
BRAZILE: But Harold Ford has done a fantastic job.
BLITZER: ... I want to move on to Virginia.
But was that a racist ad?
BENNETT: I don't think so. I -- I disagree with your conclusion.
BRAZILE: I...
BENNETT: You want nastiness, you want real racism, go -- go back to Maryland, with the Oreo cookies on Steele, and the stealing of his report -- of his credit reports and so on. Things -- the minstrel show stuff, that is real racist.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: All right.
BRAZILE: Just a generation ago, people were lynched when...
BENNETT: Yes.
BRAZILE: ... when there was an indication that -- of -- of interracial marriage, interracial dating.
And we forget that Emmett...
(CROSSTALK)
BRAZILE: ... Emmett Till was lynched...
BENNETT: Sure.
BRAZILE: ... for so-called whistling at a white woman. It was racist, and it was sexist.
BENNETT: But people don't...
BRAZILE: And, again, people...
BENNETT: ... care about interracial dating anymore.
BRAZILE: Well, it's a hot-button issue. And they could have made the...
BENNETT: I don't think the people of Tennessee care about interracial dating.
BRAZILE: They could have made the...
BENNETT: I don't think they do.
BRAZILE: They could have made the facts without throwing in...
BENNETT: Well, you want...
BRAZILE: ... you know, a bimbo, trash ad.
BENNETT: If you want real nasty, go back to Maryland, see you what they did...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: Let's talk about Virginia. This another -- another nasty race.
Right now, in this latest poll that we have, Jim Webb, the Democratic challenger, formerly served in the Reagan administration, secretary of the Navy, we have him at 47 percent. We have George Allen in this poll at 44 percent.
What went wrong for George Allen? This was supposed to be easy, but he has made some major missteps.
BENNETT: Well, his own missteps. He stepped on his own words. He said things. The macaca thing was ridiculous. And, then, the handling of this -- the mother -- his mother being Jewish, that was all very awkward, seemed fumbling.
But people are now taking a look at his record, taking a look at where he is. In the state of Virginia, his positions are much closer to Virginia's positions than Jim Webb.
Jim Webb, again, attractive guy -- I got to give it to the Democrats. They have put up some very good people -- interesting background, but I don't think he's going to cut it...
BLITZER: Virginia...
BENNETT: ... in Virginia.
BLITZER: ... really is...
BENNETT: Not conservative enough.
BLITZER: ... almost like two states. The northern part of Virginia, a lot of people have moved there from all over the country, much more liberal...
BENNETT: Right.
BLITZER: ... or moderate, as opposed to the southern part of the stat, which is much more conservative.
You saw the story in "The Washington Post" today on the front page, making all of these suggestions that George Allen has got a record that shouldn't necessarily be a source of pride to a lot of Virginians.
BRAZILE: Well, it's -- it's another indication that George Allen hasn't come clean with the voters of Virginia.
The truth is, is that Jim Webb has been able to put together a remarkable campaign in a short period of time. This was supposed to be another fait accompli for the Republicans. Jim Webb yesterday picked up the endorsement of Doug Wilder, now the -- the former governor of Jim Webb, now the mayor of Richmond. If he gets his vote out in the Hampton Roads area, Jim Webb can win this race.
BENNETT: If "The Washington Post" were the neutral fact book, I might go along with this.
But we saw what...
BLITZER: All right.
BENNETT: ... how they headlined Allen. We saw how they headlined Cardin. They're -- they're giving their tilt away...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: We got to leave it there.
BENNETT: You bet.
BLITZER: Bill and Donna, thanks very much. Good discussion.
Bill Bennett, Donna Brazile, they're part of the best political team on television.
And, remember, for the latest campaign news at any time -- any time -- check out our Political Ticker, CNN.com/ticker.
Up next: Will we know what happened when election night is over? Or could we see a repeat of 2000? Just one of the questions I will put to our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield. He is here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Plus: As star of "Sex and the City," Sarah Jessica Parker made an impression on many young women and men. Now voter advocacy groups are also trying to make an impression on young single females -- that story coming up when we come back.
Stay with us. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back.
Many questions about the battle for Congress finally will be answered a dozen days from now. What should we be watching on Election Day?
Our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, is joining us here in THE SITUATION ROOM. We have got some questions -- that would be me asking the questions -- and your answers, four of them, specifically, the four questions, as we always talk about.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Right.
BLITZER: First question: Could Republican losses, Senate losses be minimal?
GREENFIELD: Yes. I think all the preelection predictions -- or, as I prefer to call them, guesses -- have -- have kind of been premised on substantial Democratic gains, maybe even control.
But, then, you look at all these races that are simply too close. And, if you don't commit the error of looking at a two-point lead as telling you a whole lot, you know, you look at Conrad Burns -- Candy Crowley just reported -- he could well hold that seat. Republicans could win in Tennessee and Virginia and Missouri. And they could pick up seats in New Jersey, with Menendez vs. Kean, and, as just we just heard, in Maryland.
In 1986, when Democrats took the Senate back, they did it by winning every close race, two- and three-point percentages. They all tipped. But, you know, that isn't necessarily the way it happens. And I could see, election night, anything from Democrats winning control to only two Senate losses for Republicans.
BLITZER: Well, speaking of election night, will we know what happened when election night is over?
GREENFIELD: You know, I hate to bring this up, since we were all there so late back in 2000.
But, when you combine the fact that you have a lot of very close races, control of the House could come down to five or six seats, you have got all these states with these fancy new voting machines that have caused some problems, you have had computer glitches, you have poll watchers who are necessarily the most techno-specific and educated people, so, you could imagine around, I don't know, midnight, 1:00 in the morning, we're looking at five or six races to control the House, where there will be recounts, legal challenges. They are going to have to find a paper trail, if the computers provide them.
And we could actually be sitting there -- I hate to bring up son of 2000, because I remember 6:30 in the morning, when we finally kind of knocked off, and then spent 37 days. It could be a while before we know who controls, actually, either house. BLITZER: I remember that night very well myself.
GREENFIELD: Ah, yes.
BLITZER: If the Democrats do get those 15 seats in the House of Representatives, and become the majority, is it a done deal that Nancy Pelosi will become the speaker of the House?
GREENFIELD: Well, look. She's the -- her party's leader. And she clearly has overwhelming support in the caucus. But it isn't unanimous.
Former Congressman Ken Lucas voted "present," rather than voting for her for -- for minority leader, or for speaker, which was the tactic way. He's trying to get his seat back. Heath Shuler, the former NFL quarterback, who is running a very strong race in North Carolina, has not committed.
So, once again, if it comes down to -- to two or three House seats, you -- you wonder whether these -- there are a couple of very conservative Democrats who are running. If they get in, are they willing to make their first vote in the House a vote for someone who has been painted as the San Francisco liberal?
My guess is, if the Democrats take the House, she will be speaker. But, you know, we have seen state legislatures where weird things happen when the -- when the margin is this close. So, stay tuned.
BLITZER: All right, final question, question number four: Will all this hysterical Election Day speculation be stilled at any point?
GREENFIELD: Well, as you know, there's this ignoble tradition. Around 1:00 in the afternoon, the first exit polls come out, which are supposed to, of course, be confidential. And the entire political community is on their cell phones exchanging them.
Now, what has -- what happened, as we well remember, in 2004, is, these first-wave polls were deeply flawed. And I remember seeing prominent Republicans just condemning the Rove machine as incompetent. I believe Democrats ran to Kinko's to get their resumes printed.
This year, in an effort to stop this, the powers that be, I believe, are imposing what they used to call on "Get Smart" a cone of silence on these exit poll mavens. They're going to be kind of shut off from the rest of us, with no cell phones and no BlackBerrys.
And my feeling...
(LAUGHTER)
GREENFIELD: My feeling, Wolf, is, given the intense hysteria that this has engendered in the past, I want the Maalox concession for all the networks and newspapers, because, if we are deprived of these inaccurate exit poll numbers in the middle of the afternoon, I don't know what we are going to do. BLITZER: We will do something, because we always do. Thanks.
GREENFIELD: Want to go to the movies?
BLITZER: Maybe we will do that.
GREENFIELD: All right.
BLITZER: Maybe we will, you know, go take a nap, or whatever.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: We will do something.
BLITZER: Jeff, thanks very much.
Jeff is going to be very busy. He has got a special coming up Friday night that we're going to talk about more later.
Also, on our "Political Radar" this Thursday: the high cost of the 2006 campaign.
A new report proclaims this year's midterm elections will be the most expensive in history. The nonpartisan Center For Responsive Politics estimates -- get this -- 2.6 billion -- billion -- dollars will be spent by candidates, interest groups and political parties. That's $4 million more than the 2002 campaign cycle.
On the campaign trail today, the president rejected -- actually, reacted to a New Jersey Supreme Court ruling on gay marriage. He charged, another activist court has raised doubts about the institution of marriage, his words. And he repeated his belief that marriage is between a man and a woman.
Yesterday, New Jersey's highest court ruled that gay couples have the same rights as married heterosexual couples. But it was left up to the state legislature to decide whether to call their unions marriage.
Coming up: They could have power at the polls, but if they show up on Election Day. We will tell you who might benefit if more young single women turn out to vote.
And, later, we will have more news. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: In the run-up to Election Day, there's a big push under way to try to get young single women into the voting booth. Twenty million unmarried women who are eligible to vote did not cast ballots back in 2004. They have been dubbed the "Sex and the City" voters. And, like the characters from the TV show, they are very much in demand right now.
Let's bring in our congressional correspondent Dana Bash -- Dana. DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, we are all being bombarded right now with political news, ads in mail, but there is a huge segment of the population that is tuning it all out, and not planning to vote: single women.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BASH (voice-over): Maryanne Randazzo is 27 years old. She has never voted before, and won't this year either.
MARYANNE RANDAZZO, WAITRESS: I don't feel like it's going to change -- change my life.
BASH: She's just too busy working at her father's pizza parlor in suburban Philadelphia.
RANDAZZO: Just because I'm stuck in this place. I work six days a week, 60 hours-plus. So, honestly, it's because I really don't have time. And...
BASH: And politics turns her off, especially the negative campaign ads.
RANDAZZO: It bores me. I flip the channels, to be -- to be honest with you.
BASH: Maryanne is one of a jaw-dropping 20 million unmarried women who did not vote in 2004.
Now a nonpartisan group is hoping these ads will get their attention.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You want me to tell you about the first time I did it?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think the best time is in the fall.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I like to do it in the morning.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's cool.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Pretty.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Sexy.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's a beautiful thing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PAGE GARDNER, FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT, WOMEN'S VOICES, WOMEN VOTE: Even though 20 million did not vote, 27 million did. So, they are a potent political force. And they are the fastest growing demographic we have in this country.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "SEX AND THE CITY")
UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: So, which district do you vote in?
SARAH JESSICA PARKER, ACTRESS: Whichever one is near Barney's.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: In 2004, they were dubbed "Sex and the city" voters. But most single women are nothing like Carrie Bradshaw.
GARDNER: Half of them make $30,000 or less. Thirty-six percent move every two years. So, it -- they have very difficult lives.
BASH: Nonpartisan grassroots group are working to get out the single female vote, going door to door with information.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So...
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So, November 2 is when it's going to be?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: November 7.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, November 7. I'm probably not a good candidate for this, because I'm not really into politics.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, you're the perfect candidate.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, Laurie (ph), this is Grace (ph).
BASH: Phone banking, targeting unmarried women.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: ... just calling the women to make sure that they go out and vote.
BASH: The biggest beneficiaries would likely be Democrats if more single females did vote.
ANNA GREENBERG, POLLSTER: Most likely to say the country is going on the -- in the wrong direction. They hate the war in Iraq. They feel like the economy has not helped them over the last five or six years. So, I think you could expect unmarried women, if they vote, to vote pretty Democratic.
BASH: Back at the pizza parlor, Maryanne says she would vote Democrat, because of the war and:
RANDAZZO: Health insurance, it's going -- I know I have -- I'm on my own health insurance. It's -- it's so expensive for just a single female.
BASH: But she's not even registered to vote, and the deadline has passed -- maybe next time.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BASH: And Republicans and Democrats are going after, micro- targeting these women. They started this in the last election. They're continuing those efforts this year, Wolf.
And what focus groups and studies have shown is that these women just don't want to hear the partisan mudslinging, the sniping. So, what they are trying to do is give them just the facts, ma'am, straight information about the issues, about the candidates, not easy in this day and age -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, Dana, thanks very much. Good reporting.
And this footnote: Younger people in general have some serious catching up to do when it comes to voting, compared to older Americans. Census Bureau figures show that just 41 percent of 18-to- 24-year-olds say they voted in the 2004 election. That compares to over 70 percent of 65-to-74-year-olds.
Coming up: When it comes to Iraq, who do you believe, the Bush administration or Iraq's prime minister? Jack Cafferty has your answers.
That's next right -- here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Let's check in with Jack Cafferty. He's got "The Cafferty File" -- Jack.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush says the U.S. is working with Iraq's government to come up with benchmarks for progress there. That's another word for timetables, something we said we would never do.
Iraq's prime minister says no one has a right to set a timetable for the Iraqi government -- not that it would matter. He hasn't done much of anything so far anyway on any of these major issues. And now Tony Snow says that al-Maliki's comments were taken out of context.
Oh, and did I mention, while they are all talking and posturing and politicking, five more American troops were killed in Iraq today, bringing the death toll there to 96 for the month?
So, the question is: When it comes to Iraq, who do you believe, the Bush administration or Iraq's prime minister?
Ted in Boerne, Texas, writes: "Neither. They both have their own agenda. And neither agenda is in the best interests of the average American."
Gary in San Diego: "The Bush people are habitual liars. And the Iraqis are their puppets. Next question?"
Chris in Sherman Oaks, California: "It has been impossible to believe anything the administration said about Iraq in years. The entirety of their policy is intended to maintain their control of American government. They're carrying out policy for the sake of elections, rather than getting elected for the sake of good policy, for the benefit of the American people." Mike in Columbia, South Carolina: "Jack, the only two people talking about Iraq that I trust are Michael Ware and John Roberts. But John is coming home soon, so we will be down to one truth-teller. Everyone else is telling their audiences what they want to hear. And most of it is the stuff the comes out of the southbound end of a northbound bull."
Tabitha in Bangor, Maine, writes: "Neither one. They're both delusional" -- Wolf.
BLITZER: We will be hearing from Michael Ware in the next hour.
Jack, thanks very much -- Jack Cafferty reporting for us.
Up next: A blogger pays a high price for breaking the Mark Foley congressional page scandal. We will tell you what's going on online.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back.
The person behind the Web site that first posted Mark Foley's controversial e-mails to a congressional page has been revealed, and fired from his job with the Human Rights Campaign. That's a gay-and- lesbians-rights group.
Abbi Tatton standing by with more -- Abbi.
ABBI TATTON, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, it's this blog, Stop Sex Predators, that has had everyone guessing. It's where the Foley e-mails first appeared, four days -- appeared at the end of September, four days before any media reports.
The site's author has wished to remain anonymous, but one other blogger has now tracked him down. That's this Web site, whose creator describes himself as right-leaning. The creator of this Web site wishes to remain anonymous. He says he doesn't want people camping out on his lawn. He says he wanted to identify the blogger because he hates dirty politics, and was also interested in the hunt.
He was able to figure out the identity of the anonymous blogger by tracing e-mails sent to the address of Stop Sex Predators. Those e-mails led him to the computer address he says is associated with this gay-rights group, Human Rights Campaign.
David Smith, a vice president for Human Rights Campaign, says a junior staffer in Michigan was fired on Tuesday for inappropriate use of organizational resources. The staffer had revealed he created Stop Sex Predators, after he realized that this blogger was zeroing in on him -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Abbi, thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
