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The Situation Room
Identity of Kidnapped U.S. Soldier Revealed; Interview With Pennsylvania Congressman John Murtha; Iraq and the Midterm Elections
Aired November 02, 2006 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: From CNN's election headquarters in New York, this is a special edition of THE SITUATION ROOM -- the number- one issue on voters' minds, Iraq.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And CNN reporters are standing by. They're going to bring us all the latest, the most accurate look at what is happening in Iraq, and its political implications.
ZAHN: From Baghdad, John Roberts on the chaos and the kidnapped U.S. soldier. In Michigan, Allan Chernoff profiles that soldier and his family.
And White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux is following President Bush's effort to rally voters and his criticism of how some Democrats would handle Iraq.
And we asked Tom Foreman for a reality check on Iraq reconstruction. Where is all that money going?
BLITZER: President Bush no longer saying stay the course -- so, what will be different in the last two years of this administration? The president's press secretary, Tony Snow, answers some of the tough questions.
ZAHN: And Democrats promise they will do a better job. We're going to ask Representative John Murtha what his party actually will do if it wins control of Congress.
BLITZER: I'm Wolf Blitzer.
ZAHN: And I'm Paula Zahn.
This is a special edition THE SITUATION ROOM, "#1 Issue: Iraq."
And welcome back.
Here we are, five days before voters go to the poll, and one single issue has emerged as the most important one. And that is the issue of Iraq. Forty-nine percent of the voters called Iraq extremely important in our latest CNN/Opinion Research poll. Terrorism, ethics and everything else is farther down on the list.
Let's get straight to Baghdad, where, after more than a week of silence, the U.S. military is finally releasing some details about a kidnapped U.S. soldier. Our John Roberts was embedded with one of the first military units to go looking for him. And he joins us now with some of those late details.
John, what have we learned from...
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good evening to...
ZAHN: ... officials?
ROBERTS: Good evening to you, Paula.
The search goes on for that kidnapped missing soldier. He went missing a week ago Monday -- the task to find him made that much more difficult by the witch's brew of politics in Iraq, and specifically in Baghdad.
The U.S. military has all kinds of leads as to where this fellow might be, but nothing has panned out at this point. However, they did finally, after a week-and-a-half, release his name.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS (voice-over): At his daily briefing, Major General William Caldwell revealed what CNN has known for 11 days, but did not report, out of security concerns.
MAJOR GENERAL WILLIAM CALDWELL, U.S. ARMY SPOKESMAN, COALITION FORCES IN IRAQ: His name is Ahmed Qais al-Taayie. He is 41 years old. He moved to the United States when he was a teenager. He is a specialist in the U.S. Army Reserves currently serving on active duty.
ROBERTS: Al-Taayie was detailed to a provincial reconstruction team as an interpreter. On Monday, October 23, he left the Green Zone to visit his secret wife in Baghdad's Shiite Karada neighborhood. During that visit, his wife claims, al-Taayie was kidnapped by members of the Mahdi army, the militia loyal to Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
CALDWELL: ... when three cars pulled up to the residence. The hostage-takers handcuffed him and forced him into one of their vehicles.
ROBERTS: I was embedded with the 172nd Stryker Brigade when the 911 call went out that al-Taayie had gone missing. The Strykers raced to Karada, where the U.S. military had traced calls from the soldier's cell phone.
They combed through homes and buildings in the area and interviewed another young woman, who claimed she too is secretly married to an American soldier. But the mission hit a roadblock after U.S. troops searched a television station owned by the leading Shiite political party and seized a cache of weapons, prompting a sharp response from Iraq's national security adviser.
MOWAFFAK AL-RUBAIE, IRAQI NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: We believe these are all wasted effort. We should reconcentrate our efforts with our Strykers, our soldiers, your soldiers to the -- against the terrorists and the insurgents, and -- and the death squads, against these things. We don't -- we shouldn't waste a lot of time on our friends. These are our friends and allies.
ROBERTS: From Karada, the U.S. military believes, al-Taayie may have been taken to Sadr City, the sprawling Shiite slum, stronghold of the Mahdi militia.
Roadblocks were set up across Baghdad, Sadr City virtually shut down. This map shows where U.S. and Iraqi forces have been searching for the soldier. There's been plenty of intelligence on his possible whereabouts, but nothing has panned out.
CALDWELL: At this time, we believe the ones who kidnapped Ahmed currently still have him. We're using all our assets at our disposal to find him, and the government of Iraq is actively supporting this effort and doing everything it can too at its level.
ROBERTS: But the Iraqi government has also complicated the search.
After Muqtada al-Sadr protested the Sadr City checkpoints by calling for a general strike, Iraq's prime minister ordered the U.S. military to take them down.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS: Major General Caldwell also revealed today that -- quote -- "dialogue" is ongoing to try to secure the soldier's release, but he wouldn't say with whom.
CNN contacted senior leaders in Muqtada al-Sadr's political bloc, as well as at his offices in Najaf, south of Baghdad. But, at both places, they denied that they were engaged in either direct or indirect talks with the U.S. government. In fact, they denied any knowledge of the kidnapping of the soldier -- Paula.
ZAHN: And does -- John, does anybody you talked to think that the Iraqi government is putting enough pressure on Muqtada al-Sadr?
ROBERTS: No.
None of the U.S. military officials that I have spoken to, and -- and many officials who work the embassy, as well, think that he is putting enough pressure on Sadr to disband this Shiite Mahdi militia -- the reason being Nouri al-Maliki derives a lot of political support and owes his position, to a large degree, to support from Sadr.
And, if he were to put the squeeze on that Mahdi militia, Sadr could turn against him. And it could be all over for Maliki.
ZAHN: John Roberts, thanks so much -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, let's learn a little bit more about this missing American soldier. For that, we will turn to our senior correspondent, Allan Chernoff.
He's joining us now from Michigan.
What do we know, Allan.
ALLAN CHERNOFF, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, I spoke to al- Taayie's parents, who live here in Ann Arbor, parents Nawal (ph) and Qusay (ph).
And, understandably, they are very concerned. In fact, his dad was holding red worry beads as we spoke. And he described his son as a man of peace. The parents say that he wanted to actually go help his native country and his adopted country, the United States, by using his translating skills, his command of both English and the Iraqi dialect of Arabic.
And the family cares deeply about its homeland. In fact, his mom told me that she was so happy when Saddam fell. The parents did not want to speak on camera. But a next-door neighbor did.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
THOMAS DUTTON, NEIGHBOR: What he is doing for our country and for Iraq is -- is heroic, and that -- that it's -- it's sad that it caused him to -- to be in the situation he is in. And we are all praying for him. And our thoughts are with him and with his family.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHERNOFF: Forty-one-year-old al-Taayie is a former airline maintenance worker.
And he met his wife in Baghdad two years ago. His parents say that was before he was actually serving there for the military. And, in fact, he was hoping to bring his bride back to the United States.
In fact, she has a visa appointment scheduled with the U.S. Embassy in Amman, Jordan, in February. And, of course, the parents are hoping that the two of them will return here to the U.S. safely -- Wolf.
BLITZER: We're praying for them as well.
Allan, thanks very much -- Allan Chernoff reporting on the scene.
It's a heartbreaking story.
ZAHN: It's terrible. I can only imagine what that family is going through.
Moving up on about seven minutes past the hour.
We get to hit you early in this hour, Jack. We really like you in this hour. JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Paula.
If and when the war in Iraq ever ends, there are serious questions about what might be left of that country. Consider this. Gunmen killed a Shiite University dean today in Baghdad. He was the 155th Iraqi academic murdered in sectarian violence since the U.S. invaded the country three-and-a-half years ago.
Thousands more have left Iraq. The intellectual and artistic populations have been decimated. The ones who could afford to get out of the country did. And a lot of the others are being systematically wiped out, like this dean who was killed today, which means, when the bullets finally stop flying, it should be pretty easy for people like Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to turn what's left of the population into kinds of maniacal, bloodlusting extremists needed to continue the war on terror.
They will have a ready-made supply of suicide bombers and jihadists. The intellectuals, the scientists, the artistic community, the teachers, everyone else who could afford to will have left the country long ago. And those who didn't get out, or couldn't get out, will probably will have been murdered.
So, here's the question: What do you think Iraq's going to be like if and when this war ever ends? E-mail your thoughts to CaffertyFile@CNN.com or go to CNN.com/CaffertyFile.
BLITZER: I saw a recent estimate by the United Nations there's been a million -- nearly a million -- 900,000 Iraqis have already been displaced over the past three-and-a-half years, whether made refugees, gone to neighboring countries or elsewhere, or displaced within Iraq itself.
(CROSSTALK)
CAFFERTY: The future of that country looks pretty grim, indeed.
BLITZER: It -- it's -- let's hope they can get -- get it together. Thanks, Jack, very much.
And, if you want a sneak preview, by the way, of Jack's questions, plus an early read on the day's political news and what is ahead right here in THE SITUATION ROOM, you can sign up for our daily e-mail alert. Just go to CNN.com/SITUATIONROOM.
Iraq, clearly the number-one issue going into the election, I talked about it in depth with the White House press secretary, Tony Snow.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Tony, thanks very much for coming in.
TONY SNOW, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Wolf, thank you.
BLITZER: Here's the latest -- I'm sure you saw it -- CNN -- excuse me -- CBS News/"New York Times" poll: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the president is handling the war in Iraq? It's now a record low in this poll. Twenty-nine percent approve. Sixty- four percent disapprove.
Why has the American public, at least according to this poll and other polls, lost confidence in the way the president's handling the war in Iraq?
SNOW: I think the public just doesn't like the war. And I don't blame people. We don't like the war either. We wish it weren't necessary to fight. But it is.
What's interesting in this political season, Wolf, is -- you can ask about the president's conduct of the war, but there's also an interesting issue that I think people are going to consider between now and Election Day, which is, who's actually talking about winning this war?
Because Democrats took the calculated position going into this campaign that they would spend their time talking about how much they didn't like George W. Bush. And there's been a concerted effort to go after the president. And it has worked. Negative campaigning, in that sense, does work.
But, meanwhile, it's been interesting. Every time the president proposes something, Democrats say no -- Patriot Act, no. How about the terror surveillance program, where you can surveil a terrorist in the United States communicating with a terror master abroad? Don't like that, say the Democrats. OK. How about the detainee...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: Let me -- Tony, let -- let me...
SNOW: Yes.
BLITZER: Let me interrupt and get back to the war in Iraq for a minute. Then, we will get into some -- some other issues. Here's...
SNOW: Well, OK. Well, let me...
BLITZER: Here's -- here -- here...
SNOW: I will -- I will finish the point, and make it brief.
BLITZER: All right, go ahead.
SNOW: I promise not to filibuster.
BLITZER: OK.
SNOW: The point is, you got a whole series of these things, and Democrats have not offered a simple solution. OK, you don't like it. How are you going to win? They have said no to everything, but they haven't said yes to anything. And Americans have to ask themselves, if this is the dominant issue, why won't Democrats talk about it? Why won't they tell you what their plan is?
BLITZER: Well, I guess they -- their argument is, they're not in power right now. It's up to the executive branch of the U.S. government.
SNOW: Whoa, wait a minute.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: But let -- let -- I'm not going to speak for the Democrats.
SNOW: Yes.
BLITZER: But I -- but I will express some of the concerns, at least conveyed to me, that people out there have, as they see what's happening on the ground in -- in Iraq...
SNOW: Yes.
BLITZER: ... not only the violence, but this new government of Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, and the concern that what seems to be emerging, almost -- as opposed to the democracy that all of us would love to see in Iraq, is almost a Shiite-led theocracy, very...
SNOW: Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. OK.
BLITZER: I mean, there's a concern out there, as you know, that this government is moving in that direction, relying on the likes of Muqtada al-Sadr, this young Shiite radical cleric, who's calling, at least on the surface, it seems to a lot of us, some of the shots.
SNOW: OK. A couple of things.
First, let's talk about Nouri al-Maliki. He's a prime minister who's been in business for five-and-a half months. What has he done?
Number one, he has said: I need to have more control over the military.
And he's talked about being nimble and going after forces, including in places like Sadr City. He was unhappy about not being informed of the precise time of a recent raid, but he had approved of the raid.
Furthermore, he has met with Muqtada al-Sadr. He's also met with Ali al-Sistani, the top Shia leader. In addition, he's met with 100 top tribal leaders, Sunni leaders. And he's had a reconciliation conference in Saudi Arabia.
He's been working on the economy. He's been working on reconciliation. He's been working on security.
And for a guy who's been in for five-and-a-half months, he's making decisions and he's being assertive.
BLITZER: But aren't you concerned, Tony, about this relationship with Muqtada al-Sadr?
I remember the first U.S. military commander in Iraq, General Sanchez, saying this guy had American blood on his hands. He was killing Americans. He hates America. And now he controls, what, 20 or 30 seats in the parliament, which holds the balance for Nouri al- Maliki, the prime minister.
SNOW: Here's the interesting thing, Wolf. What you're saying is that Nouri al-Maliki is answer -- answerable to Muqtada al-Sadr. It's the other way around.
Muqtada al-Sadr -- I mean -- Muqtada -- Nouri al-Maliki is the head of a government. And he is somebody who has at his -- he is the commander in chief. Now, Muqtada al-Sadr has made a decision. He's going to enter the political process.
Prime Minister Maliki, on three occasions in the last week, has said: We can't have militias. We cannot have separate settlements. We cannot have sectarian violence.
It seems to me that that's a pretty clear message.
BLITZER: What...
SNOW: And, furthermore, what you have seen is successful operations in Baghdad.
This has not been covered. General Bill Caldwell talked about it today. They have succeeded in lowering levels of violence, which is an important thing as well.
So, what you have is an activist government.
He has to deal with Muqtada al-Sadr. He's -- he's got 30 seats in the parliament. But, on the other hand, al-Sadr has to deal with him as well.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: The press secretary, Tony Snow, speaking with me earlier.
Now that we have heard, Paula, from the president's spokesman, what would the Democrats do differently if they were in power, as far as Iraq is concerned?
ZAHN: We are going to ask one of them.
Next in on our special edition of THE SITUATION ROOM, one of the president's harshest critics -- I will be talking with Congressman John Murtha about the country's number-one issue, Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: President Bush says progress is being made in Iraq. Is he correct? I'm Tom Foreman in THE SITUATION ROOM in Washington. Coming up, we will go to the map for a reality check.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: And a major contractor pulling out of Iraq -- later, the extreme dangers facing these men and women in Iraq who aren't in the U.S. military -- much more of our special coverage right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: And welcome back to a special edition of THE SITUATION ROOM, "#1 Issue: Iraq."
And the latest news only emphasizes why so many voters say it is their deciding issue and why the Democrats are hammering away at it at this late hour of the campaign.
Pennsylvania's John Murtha was a Marine for 37 years. He's a ranking member of the Appropriations Committee, and was among the first Democrat to call for the U.S. to start getting the troops out of Iraq.
He joins us tonight from Johnstown, Pennsylvania.
Thanks so much for joining us tonight, sir.
REP. JOHN MURTHA (D), PENNSYLVANIA: Nice to be with you, Paula.
ZAHN: Thank you.
I wanted to start off by talking about the president's spokesperson, and what he told Wolf Blitzer earlier tonight. He blasted the Democrats, saying you are sitting on the sidelines; all you are doing is spending your time calling the president names, and voting down all legislation that would fight in the war -- aid the fight in the war on terror.
Your reaction?
MURTHA: Paula -- Paula, they are trying to distract from what's going on, on the ground.
They are doing everything they can to -- to try to divert the attention of the American public from what's going on. And the public is not being fooled anymore. They were fooled for several years. We have had two-and-a-half -- or we have -- we have three-and-a-half years of 130,000 troops on the ground.
And, when I spoke out a year ago, there -- there were 400 attacks a week. And now there's 800 attacks a week. It's not getting better. It's worse. We had 776 casualties last month, and -- and -- and we had 103 killed this month. There's more and more conflict, more and more problems, more violence. And -- and the Iraqis can only -- you know, he said one thing that's absolutely wrong. He said it's going to be worse if we get out.
The first step in stability in Iraq is to redeploy our troops, because our troops are the targets. Just because they say there's going to be chaos doesn't mean there is.
(CROSSTALK)
MURTHA: There's a very small percentage of foreign fighters there.
ZAHN: All right. So, you do not deny that any progress has been made. But Tony Snow said tonight there was. And we heard from a U.S. military spokesperson, saying today the casualties across Iraq have decreased by 23 percent and that there was a 41 percent drop in sectarian killings in the capital.
Isn't that progress?
MURTHA: Well, let's let -- let's look at what I measure in progress.
There's two-and-a-half-hours of electricity in Baghdad. They don't ever talk about that. There's only 30 percent of the people who have potable water. The oil product is below pre-war level, and 60 percent unemployment.
Now, that's not progress. That's exactly the same as it was a year ago. Electricity production is actually less. You -- you can't just come up with figures across the country, change them around, and try to -- try to mislead the American people.
They have been mischaracterizing this war. And every time somebody has a difference in policy -- for instance, my policy is redeploy -- they then demonize the policy, put themselves in a corner. Then, it's very difficult for them to solve the problem.
(CROSSTALK)
MURTHA: But let me tell you what is going to happen, Paula.
ZAHN: Are you suggesting that -- that Mr. Caldwell made up those numbers, or is exaggerating their importance, against the backdrop of some of these other statistics you are talking about?
MURTHA: Let -- let -- let me tell -- let me -- let me tell you something. They come up with all kinds of statistics. They have done that for three-and-a-half years.
It's not getting better, Paula. It's getting worse. The way I measure it is the way I just talked about it. And, now, the people in Iraq want us out of there. Sixty-one percent of the people in Iraq say it's all right to kill Americans. Now, is that progress? Eighty percent of the Sunnis want us out of there. Seventy percent of the Shias want us out of there. That's the kind of thing that I measure. The Iraqis say it will be more stable. They have more confidence in their own military, their own police, than they have in the United States' forces.
ZAHN: All right. But...
MURTHA: We, unfortunately...
ZAHN: But, Representative Murtha, what, then, do you make of the Iraqi president saying today that he would like U.S. troops to be in place for an additional two years?
MURTHA: Well -- well, let me tell you something. He's in the Green Zone. Obviously, he wants American troops there. He -- he doesn't get outside the Green Zone.
This is the problem we have. We are doing this ourself. We are -- we're now in the Vietnam syndrome, where they are counting everything else. They're -- they're making these optimistic predictions right before an election, when -- when the same things -- the standards I use are worse than they were a -- a year ago.
Unemployment is still 60 percent, and the other things that I talked about are still the same. And we are spending $8 billion.
You know, when I -- when I go out on the campaign trail, people talk about Medicare. They talk about health care. They talk about unemployment. They talk -- they talk about taking care of education.
A young -- a young woman in my office is going to owe $40,000 when she gets out of college. And -- and the -- they -- they reduced the subsidies to kids going to college.
All those things can't be solved. This why is the American public is upset. This president has borrowed more money in -- in the time he's been president than all the other 42 presidents put together.
We are going to have a deficit that is going to be just like after the Vietnam War. Interest rates are going to go up because we have to borrow so much money. And -- and you know who is going to be paying it? The young troops who are over there fighting right now. The very small percentage of people who are doing the fighting, the young men and women, are the ones who are going to be paying the interest rate.
That's why the American public is upset, because they realize that they have been mischaracterized and misstating on this war.
(CROSSTALK)
MURTHA: And they have painted too rosy a picture for the last three-and-a-half years. ZAHN: Representative Murtha, speaking of paying for things, if the Democrats win back control of the House, you will have the ability to fund this war or not to fund this war. Would you support the idea of not funding the war at all?
MURTHA: Paula, most of the Democrats -- and that doesn't include me -- voted against the war. One hundred and twenty-two, I think it was, Democrats voted against the war initially.
But all of them, except for a very small number, like 20 or 30 Democrats, have voted against the funding. We know you have to fund the troops in the field.
But here's the problem. We are funding the troops in Iraq. In the meantime, our -- our readiness is slipping in the United States. We have units that have no equipment in the United States. We have units that -- that could not be deployed because they don't have equipment. We are not buying equipment that we need in the future to deter -- we -- we have two problems in the military, one, short-term readiness, and long-term readiness.
We have to be prepared when China keeps increasing their money that they spend on defense. Iran and -- and North Korea are ignoring what we are doing. And -- and they know we are depleting our resources.
Iran wants us there. Al Qaeda wants us there. North Korea wants us there. Russia and China know we are depleting our resources and diverting ourself away from the war on terrorism.
We had every right to go into Afghanistan. Afghanistan is where the terrorists came from. They attacked 9/11. We diverted ourself in a war of choice into Iraq.
ZAHN: All right.
MURTHA: I made a mistake when I voted for that. And I recognized it only a few weeks after I made that mistake.
ZAHN: Well, sir, we have got to leave it there, on that note.
Appreciate your joining us tonight.
MURTHA: OK. Nice talking to you, Paula.
ZAHN: Nice talking with you as well.
Again, we are going to take a short break.
But, despite the chaos and violence, President Bush says progress is being made in Iraq. So, what is the real story? Coming up, we have a reality check for you, what's going on with efforts to rebuild Iraq's power grid and restart its oil industry, and why one of the biggest U.S. contractors in Iraq is pulling out.
This is a special election edition of THE SITUATION ROOM, "#1 Issue: Iraq."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to our special election edition of THE SITUATION ROOM -- the number-one issue in this election, at least right now, Iraq.
Tonight, a turning point in the rebuilding of Iraq -- the engineering and construction firm Bechtel is pulling out of the country. Bechtel completed its government contract this week, after spending three years in Iraq, and netting more than $2 billion in federal contracts.
The work may have been profitable, but it was also very dangerous. Like so many other contractors in Iraq, Bechtel has seen quite a few of its construction projects sabotaged by insurgents and terrorists, or simply crippled by lack of security.
And 52 -- 52 -- Bechtel employees, mostly Iraqi subcontractors, have been killed.
Let's bring back our national correspondent, John Roberts. He's in Baghdad with us.
People don't necessarily realize, John, how dangerous these contractors -- how dangerous this work is.
ROBERTS: You know, Wolf, I have spoken several times with the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction's office.
Just yesterday, I talked with -- with one of the senior officials there. And they say that overhanging all of the efforts to reconstruct the infrastructure of this country is the issue of security.
And, to drive that point home, while I was interviewing this official yesterday, Wolf, mortars landed in the Green Zone, and we had to interrupt the interview.
The violence continues across this country. And, specifically, these infrastructure projects are being targeted. Bechtel was unable to complete a hospital in Basra. It got delayed by a year. It was 150 percent over budget. Eventually, the U.S. military took them off of the job, because they just couldn't get it done.
In other areas, we are seeing security affecting the quality of construction as well. And that also dovetails in, pairs together, Wolf, with this idea that some of these American contractors are subcontracting to the point where the work gets very shoddy as well. Remember what happened to that police college, where all of the plumbing was leaking -- so, Wolf, a lot of problems here, but overhanging everything is this issue of security.
And we should mention to you, Wolf, too, before we go here, things still very dangerous in Baghdad -- just got a report of three more soldiers killed in eastern Baghdad. That would bring now to seven the total number of U.S. troops killed in the first two days of November.
BLITZER: I know you are going to have a lot more on this on a special edition of "THIS WEEK AT WAR" this weekend, as well, John.
Thank you very much. Please be careful over there -- Paula.
ZAHN: Thanks, Wolf.
After a lightning-fast invasion, and the surprisingly quick collapse of Saddam Hussein's government, how did we get where we are tonight?
Tom Foreman takes a look now at just where Iraq stands after three-and-a-half years -- Tom.
FOREMAN: Paula, this is why this is such a big issue right now, these explosions of violence that are happening in here, driven by the Shias down here, the Sunnis over here, the Kurds over here, and largely happening in areas that, at least for a while, were calm.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FOREMAN (voice-over): Shortly after coalition troops toppled Saddam Hussein and disbanded his military, there was violence around the country, but not much, a few dozen insurgent attacks each month.
Look at what has happened, according to the most recent reports from the Government Accountability Office. Attacks have steadily grown, pushing toward 5,000 a month. More than half are aimed at coalition troops. But a growing number are hitting Iraqi security forces and civilians, too.
One explanation offered by military leaders is that insurgents are becoming more violent as they are pursued, and lose territory.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The way to succeed in Iraq is to help Iraq's government grow in strength and assume more control over its country as quickly as possible. I know the American people understand the stakes in Iraq. They want to win.
FOREMAN: The number of trained Iraqi troops has grown rapidly to about 300,000, and they are taking the lead in securing areas of the country. But the GAO says as of August, the Iraqis had assumed complete responsibility in only one of 18 provinces.
At the same time, armed Shiite militias and Sunni insurgents allied with al Qaeda are growing.
The United States has completed or is working on more than 500 water, oil and electricity projects for the Iraqis. But attacks on oil facilities have kept production below pre-war levels. Attacks on hydroelectric dams and transmission lines keep the power off in most of the country for more than half of each day. And the GAO says 60 percent of the drinking water being pumped in this country is contaminated or simply leaking away.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
FOREMAN: So you can see what is happening. There are steps forward, but there are also steps back. And in the middle of it all, about 140,000 U.S. service members spread across the country and their families back at home, all wondering what Iraq will do in this election -- Paula.
ZAHN: That certainly reflects what millions of other Americans are thinking as well. Tom Foreman, thanks so much.
There's much more ahead on special election edition of "THE SITUATION ROOM." Next, who is really calling the shots over there? We are going to look at one of Iraq's most powerful militias and its leader, who hates the U.S.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Suzanne Malveaux at the White House. President Bush is out on the campaign trail, trying to help Republican races using the Iraq war. The big question is whether or not he will succeed. I'll have more of that coming up in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: To our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time.
Happening now, a massive search for a missing American soldier in Iraq. The U.S. military suspects the followers of a powerful anti- American cleric are to blame. Tonight, we go inside the Mehdi army.
Also, President Bush back on the campaign trail and back on the defensive over Iraq. Is he addressing voter anger about the war or trying to change the subject?
Plus, an eye-popping prediction. The non-partisan analyst Stuart Rothenberg now says Democrats will win control of the United States Senate. Rothenberg says the state and national dynamic now favors Democrats picking up the six seats they need to reclaim the Senate.
They may have a strategy for winning, but do Democrats have an exit strategy in Iraq?
I'm Wolf Blitzer, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
More now on our top story in Iraq. A kidnapped American soldier is missing, and an all-out search for him continues. Today we learned his name as Ahmed Qusai al-Taayie. An official showed a picture of him.
Might followers of a rogue militia be involved in this kidnapping? CNN's Michael Ware has more from Baghdad.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Sadr City is a sprawling slum. An estimated 2.5 million people, almost half the population of Baghdad. Controlled not by the Iraqi government or the U.S. military, but by these men. They are the Mehdi army, followers of this man, Muqtada al-Sadr, a powerful anti-American Shia cleric.
MUQTADA AL-SADR, SHIITE CLERIC (through translator): Who is going to protect Iraq? America protect Iraq? May God damn America.
WARE: His militia is a potent force. Brazen in his propaganda videos, vocal in this demonstration denouncing America, and discreet. Militiamen in civilian clothes at Sadr City checkpoints, searching for car bombs and Sunni insurgents.
U.S. military intelligence estimates the Mehdi army has as many as 7,000 fighters. It credits the militia with at least 15 special forces companies, eight intelligence companies, religious courts that regularly order executions, and several punishment committees -- units acting both as internal investigators and anti-Sunni death squads.
And that's not all. Muqtada al-Sadr controls 30 seats in parliament, four government ministries, and wields considerable influence over Iraq's prime minister.
Opponents claim that has enabled the Mehdi army to hold America's whole mission in Iraq hostage, politically and militarily, turning Sadr City into a virtually no-go zone for American soldiers.
So how did Muqtada al-Sadr become so powerful? To understand, for weeks, CNN has been visiting Sadr City, where the Mehdi army's control is absolute. At a market, militiamen keep a watchful eye. And even women say they are ready to fight the Americans.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): We will not accept our houses to be searched. The women will attack them. We have weapons and we will kill them!
WARE: Something the Mehdi army has proven it is willing to do.
ABU MUHAMMED, MEHDI ARMY COMMANDER (through translator): Freedom should be taken, not given. So we will take it.
WARE: Abu Muhammed is a top Mehdi army commander, who insisted his face not be shown.
MUHAMMED (through translator): Who is going to let himself negotiate in the name of this city and its people when Said Muqtada (ph) has not met a single American official all year.
WARE: No negotiation with the Americans. A popular position here. But while the Mehdi army is formidable, it is not a monolith, with factions split as hard-liners push for even more attacks against U.S. forces.
On the street, unity, as the militia using Lebanon's Hezbollah as a model, delivers services, overseeing government fuel ration cards at gas stations. Security, even signing for the death (ph) at Friday prayers. And with the apparent capture of a U.S. soldier, another parallel to Hezbollah. One senior U.S. officer wonders if the kidnapping is an attempt to echo the capture of two Israelis that sparked July's war in Lebanon, an ominous suggestion, given how Muqtada and his loyalists are flexing their muscle in Sadr City and across Iraq.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WARE: And part of that flexing the muscle of the Mahdi Army was the releasing of the blockade of Sadr City. Despite this, the American military spokesman in Iraq, Major General William Caldwell, vowed that the hunt for the missing U.S. soldier will continue, regardless. Nonetheless, he did concede that Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of this militia, had to be accepted as part of the political process -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Michael, it's interesting you make this connection, this comparison with Hezbollah in Lebanon, because I've heard that from U.S. analysts back in Washington, as well.
But what is the relationship between this militia and Iran? We know the Iranians finance and support Hezbollah, but what about the Mahdi militia?
WARE: Well, the Mahdi militia, according to U.S. and British intelligence, is a major beneficiary of Iranian support in a whole manner of ways. Iran is essentially backing every horse in the race, so to speak, here in Iraq. And Muqtada's militia is one of them.
In particular, there's a point that U.S. military intelligence and the Mahdi Army intelligence officers both agree upon, and that is that some of these rogue elements, these more militant factions that are breaking away, are being picked up by Iran, funded and used, as U.S. intelligence officers say, as active operational units -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, Michael, thanks very much.
It's very disturbing, Paula, what's going on over there, because you do see parallels. Anyone who has been to Lebanon, as Michael has been, as I've been, you see parallels developing, very worrisome developments.
ZAHN: And it's pretty easy for all of us to understand why this war in Iraq is the number one issue on voters' minds as they head to the polls next week. So next, we're going to have the very latest from the campaign trail, where President Bush's language is getting sharper as election day gets closer.
BLITZER: Also, the "what if" question lots of Democrats need to answer. What would be different if their party wins control of Congress?
You're watching a special election edition of the SITUATION ROOM. Number one issue, the war in Iraq.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) ZAHN: And welcome back to the special edition of the SITUATION ROOM. The number one issue, the Iraq war. Just five days to go until the most dramatic and crucial midterm elections in years.
President Bush hit the campaign trail again today, fighting for the political life of Republican candidates from Missouri and Iowa to Montana, Nevada and Colorado.
Let's turn to Suzanne Malveaux now, who brings us up to date on the president's strategy and his goals -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Paula, today the president spent time, his day, in Montana as well as Nevada. These are red states, but these are also where Republicans are struggling. And the president faces the big question, the big challenge, whether or not the Iraq war is going to be a drag on his party.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX (voice-over): It's the elephant in every room.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I wish I could report to you that there wasn't a war, but there is.
MALVEAUX: The Iraq war -- now the number one issue for voters in the U.S. Congressional elections. The war, like the president, is highly unpopular. So Mr. Bush is trying to put the onus on the Democrats to come up with a solution to fix the problems in Iraq.
BUSH: The Democrats have no plan for victory. They have no idea how to win. Harsh criticism is not a plan for victory.
MALVEAUX: The president's strategy is to convince Americans first he gets it.
BUSH: No question about it, the fighting in Iraq is tough.
MALVEAUX: Second, to present a strategy for success.
BUSH: We have a plan for victory in Iraq. I'm not going to leave our troops there unless I can tell you we're going to win.
MALVEAUX: As election day nears, the president's rhetoric has sharpened. He now describes the stakes as do or die.
BUSH: The only way we can fail is if we leave before the job is done. And that's exactly what the Democrats want to do.
MALVEAUX: The president recently ditched his rallying cry to stay the course in Iraq. But Wednesday, he sent a clear signal to his Republican base that he would not veer far, announcing that the architects of his Iraq policy, his secretary of defense and vice president, would serve out the remainder of his term.
Some political analysts say this election is not just about who controls Congress, but who shapes Mr. Bush's legacy. STEPHEN HESS, THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: I think the absolutely most important thing he's trying to accomplish is to sell his policy to the American people, his policy on Iraq, which is the foundation of his administration.
MALVEAUX: The president has carefully selected his campaign stops in his sprint to the finish line, stumping where he believes he'll help, not hurt, his party.
HESS: It's a campaign designed to get the most out of what you've got.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX: And of course, Paula, the next stop is going to be the battleground state of Missouri. Then he hits about a half dozen other states before he votes in Texas on Tuesday, and then returns to the White House -- Paula.
ZAHN: So is there any early evidence that this is going to work for the president when Americans are so overwhelmingly against this war?
MALVEAUX: You know, Paula, it's really hard to say. The White House believes that they've been sticking with this national security theme, and the bottom line, in its simplest form, is they believe that things may be bad in Iraq, but they're going to be worse if the Democrats take over.
ZAHN: And that is the bottom line to their strategy here. And we have hear that line over and over again, haven't we, over the last couple of days, as you've so pointed out in your report.
Suzanne Malveaux, thanks so much.
Now, if the Democrats do gain control of Congress, one of the biggest question marks is what they will do about the war. And Congressional correspondent Andrea Koppel is looking into that for us tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): If Democrats win next week, does that mean U.S. troops will start leaving Iraq? The vast majority of Americans think it does.
According to a new "New York Times"/CBS News poll, four out of 10 Americans believe if Democrats take control of Congress, they will reduce the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, while yet another 40 percent believe Democrats will try to withdraw all U.S. troops.
But Rhode Island Democrat Jack Reed, the co-author of one plan supported by dozens of Senate Democrats says ...
SEN. JACK REED (D), RHODE ISLAND: A precipitous withdrawal in a matter of a few weeks or months won't work practically, and I don't think it would contribute to the best outcome. It might be far from what the president originally thought, but the best outcome that we're going to see for Iraq.
KOPPEL: On the other end of the spectrum, Pennsylvania Democrat Jack Murtha strongly disagrees with Reed and has called for all U.S. troops leave Iraq.
REP. JOHN MURTHA (D), PENNSYLVANIA: There no solution to Iraq. There is only an alternative and that's to redeploy and let the Iraqis handle it themselves.
KOPPEL: And while Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, and about a dozen other Senate Democrats agree with Murtha, Delaware's Joe Biden has other ideas, too. Under his plan, Iraq would be partitioned into three autonomous regions with a strong central government responsible for splitting oil revenues among them. Experts say it's no surprise Democrats do not speak with one voice on Iraq.
MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Democrats have a dilemma because on the one hand, they have to deliver in terms of a better policy. On the other hand, the public also wants them to get troops home and those two thoughts are not necessarily compatible.
KOPPEL (on camera): For that and other reasons, some experts predict, the most likely outcome may be more of the same, with Democrats continuing to support the budget for U.S. troops, while at the same time continuing to criticize the president's policy.
Andrea Koppel, CNN, Capitol Hill.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Some veterans of the war on terror are now hoping to move from the battlefield to the House of Representatives. A total of eight veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan are on congressional ballots around the country next week. Six of those veterans are running as Democrats, two are running as Republicans.
Still ahead, what you think Iraq will be like if and when the war ever ends. Jack Cafferty has your e-mail. That's coming up next in our special election edition of THE SITUATION ROOM. No. 1 issue, the Iraq war.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: Moving up on just about seven minutes before the hour. And you know what that means. Well, you know what that means, because he does his pop-up every night at seven minutes before. We're back with Jack Cafferty.
CAFFERTY: Not seven minutes before this hour, but I'm up at seven minutes before 8:00.
ZAHN: I know that.
CAFFERTY: I just don't get to work with you that often. 155 Iraqi academics murdered in sectarian violence since the start of the war, including the shooting death of a college dean in Baghdad today. Thousands more in the artistic and intellectual community have fled the country.
So the question we asked is, what do you think Iraq's going to be like if and when that war ever ends?
KL in Stamford, Connecticut -- "Iraq will be destroyed, but they will be a democracy, in the simplistic way the current administration sees the world. As long as they have a democracy, the administration doesn't seem to care if there is electricity, hospitals, schools, sectarian violence, assassinations, kidnappings, death, and destruction. Most of all, who cares if there's peace, as long as they have democracy."
Michelle in Mesa, Arizona -- "I think Iraq will have been reduced to a nation without any viable infrastructure, its artistic and cultural heritage devastated and its people unsure about their future and that of their children. America will have to live with the decisions and actions of this president for generations."
Jim in Homer, Alaska -- "we won't have to worry about Iraq. It will be part of Iran."
Dave in Texas -- "The important thing is not what Iraq looks like after the Bush war. The important thing is that American troops get the heck out of Iraq while we still have some semblance of order there. The locals in Iraq will make their country what they want. We cannot spend 10,000 American lives trying to make Iraq look like Peoria, Illinois."
And Mike in Boynton Beach, Florida -- "Jack, in two years, when President Bush's term is over and a few thousand more U.S. soldiers are dead, and Iraq is reduced to a barren wasteland, you can hang a big sign on the White House that says 'mission accomplished.'"
If you didn't see your e-mail here, you can go to CNN.com/caffertyfile, where we posted some more of these online.
BLITZER: Hold on a second, Jack. I want to check back with John Roberts, our man in Baghdad, who has been watching and listening. He's been there now for a few weeks.
This notion of a lot of Iraqis being displaced, the intelligentsia, if you will, simply getting killed there, or at least a lot of the elite getting out as best as they can. What do you see, what do you see on the ground?
ROBERTS: Well, what we see on the ground, Wolf, is we see a lot of empty buildings, a lot of empty homes. I was going through the Mansour neighborhood following a 177 Stryker brigade company. They were going through a lot of these homes that were empty, looked up. At every location, we were told, the owner of that particular home was in Syria --now, these are all Sunnis, so they would flee to Syria. But let's take a look at what's going on. Out in the west of Iraq, you have got al Qaeda and its affiliated groups declaring an Islamic state, even getting prepared to name a cabinet.
On the eastern and southern side of Iraq, you have got these Shiite militias, which are increasingly allied with Iran. You've got these unbelievable pressures on the historic secular nature here of Iraq, Wolf. So it's really, really changing the character of this country, really, really degrading the possibility of having a functioning democracy here, Wolf.
BLITZER: Very depressing, John. Thank you very much. Jack, thanks to you as well.
ZAHN: And we are going to move along here. Just minutes away from the top of the hour. "LARRY KING LIVE," tonight something both Republicans and Democrats probably need by this point of the campaign. Larry's guests are people who say they have got proof that positive thinking can transform your life for the better.
You have got that positive vibe tonight, Wolf?
BLITZER: I'm trying.
ZAHN: Yes, me too, working on it.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: And that's it for us. From CNN's election headquarters in New York, I'm Wolf Blitzer.
ZAHN: Thanks so much for joining us. And I'm Paula Zahn. Have a great rest of the night. Good night.
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