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The Situation Room
Will Democrats Take Control of Congress?; Interview With Pennsylvania Congressman John Murtha; Interview With South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham and California Senator Barbara Boxer
Aired November 06, 2006 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Right now, we want to check in with John King, who has been out and about around the country, to give a fix on what both the Republicans and Democrats are up to tonight -- John.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, it's interesting.
On the last night, everyone is trying to make last pitches. But I suspect most voters have made up their mind. You saw the president out on the road today. You see the candidates out on the road today. As Bill was just noting, the polls suggests it's a Democratic year. Republicans are counting on what they call their 72-hour program, which is, identify your voters, and grab them by the ear, if necessary, and get them to the polls.
They have that mechanical advantage, if you will. Will it be enough to overcome opposition to the war? Will it be to become -- anger at Washington? The polls say no. We're about to find out.
ZAHN: Tell us exactly what is being done on the ground to -- to encourage people to come out. There has always been this feeling that the Republicans have a much better grassroots operation.
KING: They do. They have spent more money on it over the years. They have developed a database. The Democrats say they're catching up this year. They don't say they have caught up. They say they are catching up.
It -- it involves simple technology, that you have people -- you know they're registered Democrats or Republicans, or you know if they're independents. And a lot of the calls tonight will be to independents, especially in a state like Missouri, in a state like Pennsylvania, although, in that Senate race, most think that one is gone into the Democratic column.
If you have got your people identified, you're trying to find a few extra people here and there. They have their computer bar codes, essentially. They call Paula Zahn. They see what she says. They scan her answers into the computer. And it tells them: Do we need to call her back tomorrow, and get her to the polls? Or do we think she's going vote the other way?
In that case, guess what? They won't call you back, because they're hoping you stay home.
ZAHN: Quickly run us through the president's schedule today, and what we can glean from exactly what message is being sent to voters...
KING: Well...
ZAHN: ... out there.
KING: ... the president was out saying: If you vote for the Democrats, we will, essentially, surrender in Iraq. If you vote for the Democrats, your taxes will be raised.
What the president doesn't say is: You know what? I'm going to be president for the next two years, and they can't raise your taxes, if I'm president. And there's really not that much they can do about Iraq, if I'm president, because the commander in chief runs foreign policy.
But he obviously is trying to gin a Republican turnout up. And you see the president on the road here. He's in Dallas, Texas, here.
The most interesting event for the president today was when he went to Florida. He was supposed to campaign with Charlie Crist. He's the Republican running for governor there.
ZAHN: Yes. He went kind of AWOL, didn't he?
KING: He went -- not only did he go AWOL. He was out campaigning with John McCain, which is sort of, if you will, a curtain-raiser for what is about to happen to this president.
The '08 race will begin as soon as we are done at 4:00 or 5:00 in the morning Wednesday with the results, and we move on. The '08 race will begin. And the question is, how relevant will this president be? Will he be a lame duck? His vice president is not running for president. Does that reduce his influence over the Republican Party?
And guess what? The Democrats are going to say, get out of Iraq. The Democrats are going to want to do a number of things. But he's also going to be talking to a lot of Republicans just after this election, who say: Mr. President, it's going to be a rough two years unless you change the way you do business.
And one of the things many of those Republicans will be saying he has to do is fire his defense secretary.
ZAHN: We have heard a chorus of those calls today.
Let's turn to Candy Crowley now for her insights on what we can expect now, here on the eve of this election.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: We have been looking at how we got to this place. And you know how they say, Paula, that an eternity in politics is a week? Well, you can imagine what sorts of things can happen over a two-year period.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY (voice-over): Just after winning reelection by more than three million votes, President Bush's approval rating was 55 percent.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Let me put it to this way: I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.
CROWLEY: If he ever had capital, it vanished overnight, as independents, who helped reelect him, began to move away. That 55 percent approval in November of '04 is the high watermark of the Bush administration's second term.
The past two years have been a long, hard, mostly downward slog, tied inextricably to rising doubts about the war in Iraq, compounded by a hurricane named Katrina. He seemed removed from that disaster and clueless about the ongoing crisis.
BUSH: And, Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job.
CROWLEY: Katrina not only drowned New Orleans; it ate away at the underpinnings of a presidency already crumbling beneath the weight of the death toll in Iraq.
KEATING HOLLAND, CNN POLLING DIRECTOR: One of the big things that George Bush had working for him, even before 9/11, is that Americans saw him as a strong leader. After Katrina and the disaster that happened to New Orleans, most Americans did not see him as a strong leader. He lost it then. He never got it back.
CROWLEY: And there was the matter of trust. Four months after Katrina hit, 10 Marines died in Fallujah, and the president said what everybody already knew: There were no weapons of mass destruction.
BUSH: But much of the intelligence turned out to be wrong. As your president, I am responsible for the decision to go into Iraq.
CROWLEY: In the year after his reelection, the president's approval rating dropped 17 points. Two years later, on the eve of election 2006, he is down 20 points, the political toll of Iraq, Katrina, and Iraq.
DAN BALZ, "THE WASHINGTON POST": What we saw in 2004, on the Democratic side, there was a lot of anger at President Bush. What we're seeing in this election is that independents now, because of Iraq, I think, in large part, are suggesting that they're going to go Democratic in -- on Tuesday.
CROWLEY: Those independents who helped reelect George Bush seem to have vanished, along with his capital. And, if pre-election polls prove out, then, the president will not have taken this long, hard slog by himself. He will have taken his party with him.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: So, Paula, to follow on what John was saying earlier, though we may tomorrow see a very big signal as to how voters feel about Iraq, we also -- I think reality is going to hit voters eventually, when Congress gets back, because there's very little, other than purse strings, that Congress can do to start bringing troops home from Iraq. And that's why they call the president commander in chief.
ZAHN: There were some really heartfelt interviews today in "The Washington Post" from soldiers, expressing varying views on what an immediate pullout would mean.
Clearly, this administration has to be very sensitive to these -- some of these soldiers saying, you know, the -- the insurgency will only get worse if you pull us out, others saying, we -- we don't understand what we're doing here.
CROWLEY: Well, and what's interesting, though, and -- and out in the countryside, as well as -- as -- as those interviews you saw, is that you don't hear people saying: We have got to get out of there right now. We want the Democrats to get in and pull them out. They don't really want that, most of them.
A number of voters will say: This is bad. We need to figure out how to get out of there.
They just feel like the president doesn't have a plan. They don't think Democrats do either. But they're willing, at this point, to take a flyer, and see if they can come up with something. So, it's not about immediate pullout. This vote doesn't seem to be about immediate pullout. It seems to be about, where are we headed?
ZAHN: And that's certainly a question on the voters' mind, particularly as the American public seems to be very opposed to this war.
And we know that the Iraqis are watching this very closely as well. What exactly are they thinking?
Let's turn to our own national security correspondent, John Roberts, who joins us now from Baghdad with more on that -- John.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, good evening to you, Paula.
In the last 48 hours, this nation has been consumed with the outcome of the first Saddam Hussein trial, death penalty for the former dictator, and what impact that might have on the immediate future. But that's behind them now. And what they're doing is turning their attention toward the possible results of the U.S. midterm elections, and how that might affect the long term in Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS (voice-over): Iraqis don't have a vote in the midterm elections, but everyone we talked to on the streets of Baghdad has an opinion and an interest in what happens Tuesday.
Awan Freya (ph), a Sunni, says he prefers the Democrats, because "President Bush destroyed Iraq, and all the sectarian violence that we see now is because of Bush." On the other hand this Christian man thinks it would be better if President Bush retains his power. "At least we know him," he says.
Regardless of whether Congress is in Republican or Democratic hands, there's one thing that most Iraqis seem to want.
Listen to Ahmed Abdul Wahab (ph), a Sunni.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): What we care about is to see the security and stability in the country and to see the occupiers leave the country.
ROBERTS: U.S. troops in the field are reluctant to publicly talk politics or discuss the overall strategy for Iraq. But it's clear from this chat I had with Captain Jake Wamsley that they are thinking about it.
(on camera): Does there need to be a new plan?
CAPTAIN JAKE WAMSLEY, U.S. ARMY: Well, you know, at my level, I think we're doing the -- the best that we possibly can.
ROBERTS (voice-over): That's what you hear from most of the soldiers I have ridden with over the past two weeks when you put the camera on them.
Privately, they do believe in what they're doing on the unit level, but they're also frustrated by the Iraqi government's lack of political will to deal with the Shiite militias driving much of the sectarian violence, and the creeping effort to bring the Iraqi army and police up to operational standards.
And they wonder how much time they have before sectarian violence tips into all-out civil war.
COLONEL JIM PASQUARETTE, U.S. ARMY: The back-and-forth, spiraling-downward sectarian issue, if it gets very decentralized, where it's families on families, and there's no way to kind of take -- look at pressure points on how you influence it, that would be disturbing.
ROBERTS: After three-and-a-half years, ordinary Iraqis are tired of the violence, the daily march of death, the barricades and blast walls. They're desperate for a normal life.
And, for Ali Rahim (ph), a Shiite, that means change a half-a- world away.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): If the Democrats win, then, the American forces will withdraw from Iraq, because the Democrats believe they have had a great loss in Iraq, and they see it as a second Vietnam.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ZAHN: So, John, I know you were exposed to a lot of different opinions out there from -- from troops that -- that you followed in action.
What is the consensus? How do they feel about the debate here about an immediate withdrawal, a phased withdrawal, or staying the course?
ROBERTS: Well, you know, Paula, a lot of military people are -- are diehard Republicans, and they're prepared to stick with President Bush, regardless of the plan that he has going forward.
But there -- there is a lot of concern, even among those people who would count themselves as -- as very firm Republicans, as to the direction going forward, and how they can manage to get this country under an umbrella of security.
In the little pockets, as I said, with each individual unit, they think that they're affecting the situation on the ground. They think they're doing a good job.
But, you know, some commanders I talked to said, you know, the -- the best that can be said for what's going on right now is, the situation is static, neither winning, nor losing. So, it would seem -- seem almost certain, Paula, that many people on the ground here are crying out for some sort of significant change. Whether that's an operational change or a political change depends on who you talk to.
ZAHN: John Roberts, thanks so much -- certainly, that concern mirrored in what we're seeing coming out of the American electorate as we head into this election tomorrow night.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: The difference is, they have guns literally pointed at them...
ZAHN: Absolutely.
BLITZER: ... as they consider what's going on.
Paula, thank you.
And thanks to John as well.
And there's no question that American voters right now are focused on Iraq. Coming up, we will speak with Senators Lindsey Graham and Barbara Boxer, and ask if a change in Iraq strategy is a foregone conclusion, no matter what happens tomorrow.
Plus: What if the Democrats take over Congress?
Our special hour on Iraq, voter anger, and the election -- we will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: And we are back to talk about what some of the key issues are that we need to pay attention to going into the election tomorrow. And we're going to talk to two senators who confront war issues on Capitol hear -- Hill, that is -- and hear what they have to say.
Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina serves on the Armed Services and Veterans committees of the Senate. And Democrat Barbara Boxer of California is on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Glad to have both of you with us tonight.
Senator Graham, I'm going to start with you.
There's a brand-new poll out by CNN showing that six out of 10 Americans disapprove in -- the war of Iraq. In the same poll, 73 percent of Americans say they are angry, 20 percent content. Are these numbers going to cause the Republicans to lose control of Congress?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R), SOUTH CAROLINA: I think we will hold on to the Senate. There's definitely been a surge by Republicans. I think Republicans are coming home to the Republican Party.
And independents are asking more than just, what's going on in Iraq? This is not going to be purely a referendum on George W. Bush. It's also going to be questions asked by independent voters about tax policies of Democrats and their Iraq policy.
I'm not pleased with what's going on in Iraq, but the worst thing we could do, in my opinion, set a deadline or a timetable for withdrawal, because it's not about Tuesday. Iraq is about the next coming decades in the war on terror. So, I think most Americans understand, the Democratic Party's all over the board. And -- and we will see what they say tomorrow.
ZAHN: Well, Senator Boxer, you have got to concede, the Democratic Party has a wide variety of plans out there.
And a number of soldiers who were interviewed in "The Washington Post" today feel that, if you were to withdraw immediately, that is worse than staying the course, and it will have dire consequences. What would you tell those young men and women?
SEN. BARBARA BOXER (D), CALIFORNIA: Well, there are some who say that. There are others who contact me who say: Please, senator, get us out of here. It's a disaster. We're sitting ducks. We're targets.
So, I think the important thing is for us to work together. This shouldn't be a Democratic-Republican battle. And I think one of the good things that will happen after this election, as Democrats pick up seats -- and I don't know whether we take over or we just pick up seats -- it's unclear at this point -- I think what you will see on the Foreign Relations Committee -- and I -- I can speak to that -- is a lot more bipartisan cooperation on Iraq, because you Senator Lugar...
ZAHN: Why don't you have that now, Senator?
BOXER: You have -- well let me finish. You have Senator Lugar. You have Senator Biden. They work together. I work with Lisa Murkowski, with Chuck Hagel, and the rest.
The reason you haven't had it now is because Republicans in the Senate have strongly supported this president. They have rubber- stamped this president. That's why you see Rick Santorum , with a 98 percent agreement with George Bush, in so much trouble, and others, Jim Talent, the same.
So, I think, after this election, when you see more Democrats in the United States Senate and in the House of Representatives, there will be a move toward coalescing.
ZAHN: All right.
BOXER: And I'm really happy about that, because I think that's going to be good for the country.
ZAHN: Senator Graham, I see you nodding. But -- but why are you so optimistic...
GRAHAM: Mmm-hmm.
ZAHN: ... because even if the Democrats gain control of the House, and possibly the Senate, there are a lot of folks out there that are going to say that, as long as Donald Rumsfeld is in charge of the Defense Department, there's not going to be any appreciable change? Do you really see anything changing after this election? Do you see increased bipartisan support?
GRAHAM: Yes, I do.
Yes, I -- I like what Barbara had to say. I think it would be good for the country if we could come together and come up with a reasoned plan to make sure we win in Iraq.
Lincoln Chafee is coming back. He's certainly not a rubber stamp for the president. But the oddest of all races to me is Joe Lieberman. Joe Lieberman, I think, is going to win. I hope he will win. And when, he comes to the Senate, after going through the experience he has gone through, we should have all listened to him, because, if it was just about the war, he wouldn't win.
He's in the bluest of blue states. Most people that will vote for him disagree with him on the war, but they respect him, because they think he's putting the country ahead of party politics. And we would be all smart to kind of follow the Joe model, put country ahead of partisan politics, and we will all do well.
ZAHN: But, finally, Senator Graham, it's interesting that you would note that what Senator Boxer was correct, and, in bringing more Democrats on board, that you are going to have a greater chance for a real bipartisan effort.
So, are you welcoming more Democrats coming into the House and the Senate tomorrow? (LAUGHTER)
ZAHN: Is that what you're telling me tonight?
GRAHAM: No. No. I'm...
(LAUGHTER)
GRAHAM: ... I'm welcoming the idea of what she said, that we could work together.
I think Republicans are going to lose some seats in the Senate, but hold -- hold the Senate. To me, Iraq is not about November the 7th. It's about the next decades. And it is a part of the war on terror.
If we leave this country in shambles, Iran is the biggest winner. We will have a war between Turkey and the Kurdish north if Iraq breaks into three parts. So, I'm trying the best I can, as a Republican senator, to let my constituents in South Carolina know, Iraq is not going well, but failure in Iraq is catastrophic for the world and the region, and we have got to win this war, and we have got to work better together to win this war. That means change. That doesn't mean withdrawal.
BOXER: Well...
ZAHN: A very quick final thought. I can only give you 10 seconds.
BOXER: Well, change...
ZAHN: I got to run into a commercial break here.
BOXER: Change...
(LAUGHTER)
BOXER: Change is the order of the day, Lindsey. You're right. And change means change the Congress.
The Kurds are already semi-autonomous. So, let's just face reality. We need change.
Lindsey, I look forward to seeing you back next week in Congress.
ZAHN: All right, you two...
(LAUGHTER)
ZAHN: ... we have got to leave it there.
Senators Lindsey Graham...
GRAHAM: Thank you.
ZAHN: ... Barbara Boxer, thanks for your time.
One of President Bush's favorite lines right now is to ask Democrats: What's your plan? In a moment, we're going to get some answers. Congressional correspondent Andrea Koppel looks at what would change on a Democratic Capitol Hill. You just heard a little preview of what Senator Boxer thinks will happen.
And, then, I will be talking to one of the harshest critics of the president's Iraq strategy, Pennsylvania Congressman John Murtha.
We will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: By this time tomorrow, polls will be closing, and here, at CNN election headquarters, results will be coming in.
Polls suggest potentially some sort of political earthquake -- Democrats still hoping to gain control of the House, maybe even the Senate. It could be a huge change in Washington. But what will it mean for Iraq? And what will it mean for the U.S. troops fighting there?
Iraq right now the top issue for American voters.
And, tonight, our congressional correspondent Andrea Koppel takes a closer look at what Democrats would do about the war.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALES AND FEMALES: Bring them home! Bring them home!
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Democrats say a victory at the polls will give them a mandate for change in Iraq.
SEN. CHARLES SCHUMER (D), NEW YORK: That's just how it works in Washington. We will have more clout. They will want things. We will want things. And things will have to change.
KOPPEL: Many Democrats say they hope that change means U.S. troops will start coming home.
Under one plan, co-authored by Rhode Island Democrat Jack Reed, and supported by over three dozen Senate Democrats, some U.S. troops would begin to withdraw by the end of this year. But there's no timeline for pulling all U.S. forces out of Iraq.
Delaware's Joe Biden also wants U.S. troops to start leaving, and he has a plan to partition Iraq into three autonomous regions, with a strong central government responsible for splitting oil revenues among them.
At the other end of the spectrum, Pennsylvania Democrat Jack Murtha and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry have called for all combat troops to leave Iraq. Still, even if Democrats win, Vice President Cheney says U.S. policy won't change.
RICHARD B. CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The president has made clear what his objective is. It's victory in Iraq. And it's full speed-ahead on that basis. And that's exactly what we're going to do.
KOPPEL: In fact, the only way Democrats could force President Bush to start withdrawing troops would be if they stopped funding the war, a move Senator Reed told CNN is off the table for now.
SEN. JACK REED (D), RHODE ISLAND: The one concern, of course, that I have about, you know, denying funds is that, ultimately, we have to support those men and women who are doing a great job for us.
KOPPEL: But, if Democrats controlled Congress, there would be consequences for President Bush if he simply digs in his heels.
THOMAS MANN, SENIOR FELLOW IN GOVERNANCE STUDIES, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: His popularity will continue to -- to decline, and -- and Republicans will see him as a tremendous burden.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: A burden which could cost Republicans vote -- votes in '08 in the House and in the White House.
And adding to that pressure, you have also got other Republicans who are saying, effectively loyalists, like Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, she's breaking ranks with President Bush over Iraq.
And, Wolf, experts say that if, after tomorrow's election, Republicans lose, you will see even more Republicans follow her lead -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Andrea Koppel, thanks very much. We will see if the Democrats first win tomorrow. Then, they can make some changes, if they -- if they have that opportunity.
Andrea, thanks very much -- Paula.
ZAHN: Well, I know one guy who thinks that they're going to win.
And that is Congressman John Murtha. He says he thinks voters tomorrow will turn Congress on its head and give Democrats control for the first time in 12 years -- the big reason, anger over the war in Iraq. After more than 30 years in the Marines, more than 30 years in Congress, this 74-year-old Democrat knows a lot about war and about politics. And he joins us tonight.
Welcome back, sir.
So, you have just heard Andrea Koppel's reporting about what Democrats could potentially do if they win a majority. I know it's off the table now, but would you ever consider cutting funding for the war?
REP. JOHN MURTHA (D), PENNSYLVANIA: Paula, I don't think that's on the table at this point, and I don't think it's necessary.
This president wants to leave a legacy. He wants to -- he's a failed president right now. He's at 37 percent. And -- and, if he continues his policy, he will -- he will go down in history as one of the worst presidents in the history of the United States.
So, he's going to have to deal with Democrats. Accountability. You know, he gives the medals to George Tenet and these fellows. It was all rhetoric and rosy picture. He will have to be accountable. And the administration will have to be accountable.
When "The Army Times" called for the resignation, the -- the replacement of Secretary Rumsfeld, that's significant. The military has lost confidence. They know that the funding stream is the key. When you talk about funding streams, this is really the key.
And when you asked that question, that's what it's all about.
ZAHN: All right.
MURTHA: The future of the military, the equipment that they buy, everything comes from funding.
So, there's all kinds of ways, by not cutting off funding for the troops in Iraq, but by rearranging the funding.
ZAHN: All right.
MURTHA: That's -- that's going to be a key issue.
ZAHN: And you have heard the president's criticism of your party loud and clear.
He said all you guys do is -- is say negative things, that you have this variety of plans. Doesn't it hurt or -- or compromise your authority that Democrats are all over the place on this? There's not one single plan that you have all embraced.
MURTHA: Paula, what is the plan of the president? The president has no plan. Stay the course is not a plan. Winning is not a plan. That's a goal. That's all they have, is a goal. They don't have a strategy.
That's why the military is so frustrated. You need an achievable goal, an achievable policy, an achievable strategy. The military's frustrated. And they're trying to blame the military.
Let me tell you something. When I heard them say a year ago it was up to the military when we left Iraq, I knew they were going to try to blame them in the end. Just last week, the majority leader, Republican majority leader in the Congress, in the House, said the military's made a lot of mistakes, in other words, trying to shift the blame to the military.
General Sanchez, who was the commander in Iraq for -- for three years, said, look, it's a policy that's the mistake. And, so, you have Perle, who was a former chairman of the Defense Policy Board, deserting them, Kenneth Adelman resigned when they gave George Tenet a -- a -- a medal. You know, everybody is deserting them except Barney.
ZAHN: OK.
MURTHA: Barney is the only one supporting these guys.
ZAHN: Final question for you tonight: What do you say to the soldiers out there that feel, if you were to start drawing troops down now, that you are devaluing what they have accomplished in the field, and that you will, in fact, make the insurgency movement much, much worse?
MURTHA: It's the opposite, Paula, of what -- what the -- the White House is saying.
The first step to stability in Iraq is to redeploy our troops. Everybody says that. The Iraqis say that. The American people say that. Let me tell you something. This is not a dictatorship in the United States. For the secretary -- or for the vice president and the president to say, we're going to continue this policy, when the people speak, the policy's going to change.
We build from the bottom up. The Soviet Union dictates from the top down. When he hears the message after tomorrow, he's going to change his policy.
ZAHN: We are going to have to end on that note.
Representative John Murtha, again, thanks for dropping by tonight. Appreciate it.
MURTHA: Nice talking to you, Paula.
ZAHN: Our pleasure.
The Democrats have high hopes, as we have mentioned, of taking over the House of Representatives. But the Republicans think they have a good shot at least of keeping the Senate.
Next in our special election-eve coverage: live updates from the closest Senate races that are going down to the wire all over the country.
We will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: And we want to welcome you back to our Election Headquarters right here in New York, where tomorrow at this time results will begin to stream in. And four key races could shift control of the Senate to the Democrats. And we have correspondents tonight standing by tonight in all four of those critical states. As you can see, in Virginia, and Tennessee, in Missouri and Montana. And we begin tonight in Virginia, where the latest poll from "USA Today" shows Republican George Allen leading by three points, that's less than the margin of error. Let's turn to correspondent Ed Henry to bring us up to date. He joins us from Richmond tonight with the latest on that race -- Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good evening, Paula. You know, George Allen is very much on the defensive, particularly over Iraq. He had a rally a short time ago here in Richmond, only 250 people.
Meanwhile, his Democratic opponent, James Webb, had a rally with former President Bill Clinton on the other end of the state. Police officials say there were five to six thousand people at that rally. The enthusiasm for Webb, in part on the issue of Iraq. He's a Vietnam veteran. He wears combat boots on the campaign trail, combat boots of his son, who's currently serving in Iraq. He's been calling for a new course in Iraq, and now George Allen in recent weeks has started doing that as well, no longer saying stay the course, saying mistakes have been made, saying, as well, that not enough progress has been made in Iraq.
In fact, George Allen tonight, taking the extraordinary step of buying two minutes of TV time all across this commonwealth to talk to the voters directly on the ever of this election, saying look, mistakes were made in Iraq, but give me another six years to try to help fix this.
Very interesting, but I can tell you, I spoke to a very senior Republican in the Allen camp, who said he's not sure it's going to be enough -- Paula.
ZAHN: Ed henry, thanks so much with the latest fro Richmond.
Now on to Tennessee and what "USA Today" says is another statistical tie between Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Harold Ford, Jr.
And Joe Johns joins us now from Chattanooga with the latest on that race.
Hi, Joe.
JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Paula.
The candidates in this race were expected to end up at home base tonight. That of course means for Harold Ford Memphis, Tennessee. We have some pictures of him campaigning earlier today in Knoxville, but Memphis is his base. That's the place where his Congressional district is located, so he's expected to sort of remain in the area now through the election, perhaps venturing out 100 miles or so on election day, but not much more than that.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, the Republican Bob Corker, who's in this statistical dead heat, although he's about three points ahead, according to that poll, expected to end up here in Chattanooga, Tennessee, tonight. This, of course, is the city where he was mayor for sometime. A very hard-fought race for him, he was traveling around the state today with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. That of course, is a man whose seat Corker would win if he wins this election tomorrow.
Back to you, Paula.
ZAHN: Joe Johns, thanks for the update.
Now, on to a third make or break Senate race, Democrat Claire McCaskill is threatening incumbent Republican Jim Talent. The latest "USA Today" poll gives her a four point lead in Missouri.
Let's turn to Jonathan Freed now, who joins us from St. Louis with more.
Hey, Jonathan.
JONATHAN FREED, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Paula.
What is going on here in Missouri right now is it's a game about turnout. Every election is about turnout, but this time in Missouri, they're saying they really mean it when a race is as close as this one. And what's going on here is that the Democrat, Claire McCaskill, is really trying to turn this into a referendum on the Bush presidency.
Her opponent, incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent, was first elected in 2002. That was before the war, of course, when the president's approval ratings were very high. We all know what's happened in the intervening years, and McCaskill is really trying to attach Talent to Mr. Bush -- Paula.
ZAHN: Jonathan, thanks.
And finally a surprise under the big, mostly Republican skies -- very big skies -- of Montana. Look at this latest "USA Today" poll, showing a nine point lead for Democrat Jon Tester over incumbent Republican Conrad Burns.
Finally, let's get that story from Chris Lawrence in Billings.
Hi, Chris.
CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Paula, Senator Burns' campaign team called those numbers bogus and said, quote, "They just don't smell right."
They say, as recently as Friday, other polls had their man in a dead heat with Democrat Jon Tester, a third generation farmer. Now, in a close race turnout is everything, and the secretary of state here in Montana is reporting attempts to confuse voters and possibly suppress turnout.
The secretary of state says about 50 people have reported that someone called them asking who they planned to vote for. Then the caller tells the voter the state never received your absentee ballot, you'll have to cast a provisional ballot on Tuesday, and provisional ballot is open to challenge. The problem is none of these voters ever requested an absentee ballot. They shouldn't have had to worry about it. The secretary of state is telling these voters to report any kind of calls like this to the authorities, and telling voters, do not let it discourage you from voting -- Paula.
ZAHN: We'll be watching along with you. Chris Lawrence and the rest of our correspondents along the campaign trail. Thank you all.
Now, we have just seen the four closest states, but the Democrats actually need to pick up six seats to take over the Senate. We're going to look at how they could cobble that together. But before we look at all the possibilities, we're going back to Baghdad, and issue number one in this campaign, the war.
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ZAHN: And we are just hours until polls open in America. And only one day after former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was sentenced to hang, two events that could mean major changes in Iraq.
Let's turn to Michael Ware, who joins us from Baghdad to give us a better understanding of what this all means.
Michael, we know that this verdict will automatically be appealed. When is the very earliest execution date that might be in the works?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, that's a matter for great conjecture, Paula. I mean, there's some completely unconfirmed reports that the appellate chamber has said it may hand down its decision as early as mid January. However, really nobody knows, not even the appellate court itself.
The thing to know here, however, is that under the Iraqi constitution and the pertaining law, there's no set timeframe for them to make their decision. Obviously the pressure is on to get it done as quickly as possible, but there's nothing to force them to hurry along -- Paula.
ZAHN: Michael, we know that some people in the country are ecstatic about the possibility he's going to be hanged, but you also have some of his loyalists that we have captured pictures of all day long chanting their allegiance to him. What impact may this have on the insurgency movement? Might it stoke it further?
WARE: Most likely not. I mean, by and large, 99 percent of the insurgency is out there fighting for many, many, many reasons, none of which have anything to do with Saddam Hussein. Though the military sometimes like to use the clumsy term "Saddamists," they actually don't exist in the insurgency. There's no one out there fighting Americans to bring back Saddam.
And while there is some lingering support for Saddam in certain pockets, what you see from the protests is not so much a rallying call for the dictator himself, but this is a representation of the Sunni community's feeling that they are by and large under assault.
ZAHN: Michael Ware, thanks so much for the update.
I want to call your attention to the left part of the screen. We now see the president sort of working the crowd. We sort of lost his images in the darkness now, but that is on the heels of the campaign appearance after trying to work up the party faithful, not -- a contentious Senate race going on this time around, we're told. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and what is expected to be an easy fight for reelection. The president, nevertheless, out there in the hustings, trying to turn out the vote.
To take over the U.S. Senate, the Democrats will need the political stars to line up just right. Coming up, Jeff Greenfield will be joining me for a look at the must-win states and the possible surprises.
Plus, candidates in some of the country's most watched Senate races will join Larry King at the top of the hour, as our special election coverage continues. Please stay with us.
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BLITZER: Welcome back to CNN Election Headquarters and the final hours of the 2006 midterm campaign. Control of the House and the Senate rests on just a few races in a few key states. And in some states a divisive ballot issue can certainly work for or against a candidate.
Let's turn to our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield. He's standing by with what we call our smart board here to give us some examples of some of these key races.
JEFF GREENFIELD, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: You mentioned ballot initiatives as a key element. Let's take a look at Missouri, where Senator Talent and Claire McCaskill, the state auditor, are in a pure toss-up too close to call.
Democrats put on the ballot this fall the stem cell initiative, Amendment 2, designed to have the state finance embryonic stem cell research. They did it because they thought they had a social issue that would get their voters to the polls the same way gay marriage brought a lot of social conservatives out in 2004. Some people think that tipped the balance in Ohio.
What's happened in Missouri is that it's also stirred up social conservatives. People who feel that this is basically a violation of pro-life attitude. The archbishop of St. Louis, Raymond Burke, who two years ago, you remember, suggested that John Kerry be denied communion because he was pro-choice, did a recorded message that he asked to be played in all the parishes of St. Louis. There were thousands of pastoral letters sent out. So now the question is, which of these candidates is actually going to benefit from that stem cell initiative? Is it going to be Claire McCaskill the Democrat, or Jim Talent, the Republican?
BLITZER: It doesn't get any closer there. And there's some other key races you're looking at.
GREENFIELD: This one actually intrigues me, I guess, almost in a novelistic sense . It's Rhode Island. Republican Lincoln Chafee running against Sheldon Whitehouse. Lincoln Chafee has broken with his party in every conceivable way. He voted against the war in Iraq, voted against the tax cuts. In 2004, as you know, wrote in the name of George Herbert Walker Bush for president. What's the one thing he hasn't done? He has not done a Jim Jeffers, the Vermont senator who crossed the aisle and said, I'm no longer a Republican.
Yet the national Republicans poured tons of money into his primary because they felt the more conservative opponent would surely lose. So now the question is Lincoln Chafee's loyalty to the party, that he fundamentally disagrees with, going to cost his party a seat, or are voters in Rhode Island going to say, you know what, we admire that independence, Lincoln Chafee, we're staying with you.
BLITZER: And the irony is, had he become a Democratic, he wouldn't probably wouldn't have had any trouble at all getting himself reelected.
GREENFIELD: Had he become an independent, it would have been like Vermont, where the Democrats are running no one against Bernie Sanders, the likely next senator. But there's something about the party pull that kept him going.
I guess the last one I want to look at -- no, we looked at Missouri. I'm sorry -- these initials. I will learn by tomorrow.
We should look at Montana. I'm sorry, that's supposed to be Montana. Did I hit that wrong? There's Montana.
Conrad Burns and State Senate President Tester. This race is one that Conrad Burns was counted out of, people believe he's made a comeback by attacking Tester as a taxer. The latest poll shows Tester with a large lead, and the Burns campaign about that, they banned the newspaper that printed that poll from covering election night. Emotions are running high, Wolf.
BLITZER: It's going to be an exciting night tomorrow night.
Thanks very much, Jeff. You're going to be at the smart board all night with us. And we're going to be very smart by the end of the night. Thanks very much.
GREENFIELD: I'll cancel my plans.
BLITZER: Paula.
ZAHN: Hey, Wolf, I have my own smart board over here. I don't even need a touch screen to engage them.
Sitting right here, James Carville, always good to see you, Democratic strategist.
Former Congressman J.C. Watts. Thank you, thank you.
Well, let's start off by talking about the so-called "Bush drag", the "Bush factor". Take a look at these statistics. According to a new CNN poll, President Bush's approval rating has dipped to 35 percent -- I know James is crying with this one -- with 61 percent saying their disapproval of the president's poor performance will affect their vote in tomorrow's election. How much trouble is your party in tonight?
FORMER REP. J.C. WATTS, (R-OK): Well, I think, Paula, as I said earlier this evening, I think you've seen the president go to places where he feels like he can strategically help. Conrad Burns, we just saw Jeff Greenfield say that, you know, they thought they had counted him out.
He was in Montana about ten days ago, down in Florida yesterday, in Kansas, in Georgia. If we're to keep the House, we've got to win one of those Democratic seats in Georgia.
ZAHN: You said if, if, if. The salient if.
WATTS: Well, I think the wind is in our face right now. I think we probably will lose about 18 seats right now. I thought 23 ten days ago, and if turnout is what we hope it will be, there's still a possibility. We're not out of this thing.
ZAHN: James, we just heard him talk about -- J.C. talk about having the wind in their face, and yet the latest Pew poll sort of has some encouraging things for your party. It's basically showing that the Republicans are gaining some ground in this final stretch. Does that have you concerned?
JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: No. The CNN poll has the Democrats up by 20, which you'll probably think is a better poll. If you take the average of all of the public polls that have been released this weekend, it has the Democrats up eleven and a half. Well, they obviously are not going to win this election by eleven and half points. If they did, it would like a blow-out we never saw.
The Republicans won the Congressional vote by six points in 1994, which produced a 52 seat change. So I think the big number we want to look at tomorrow night is the total vote. And the closer it gets to six or over six, we'll start to see some pretty massive shifts at that point I think.
ZAHN: You're not going to make any profound predictions here? Can I push you a little?
CARVILLE: You can push me a little. I think the Democrats are going to have a big night. I think they're going to be...
ZAHN: Come on, that's no help. Big night means taking back the House? Taking back the Senate?
CARVILLE: Yes, they're going to take back the House. Stuart Rothenberg has a prediction up in the mid 30s, I think. And Charlie Cook has a range of 20 to 35, and both of them say they don't see any evidence that the Republicans are making a comeback. They may be making a slight comeback, I don't think it's going to be enough. I look for the Democrats to pick up a lot of seats.
ZAHN: Let's go back and look at some of these really razor -- what were expected to be razor-close races in the state of Tennessee. You can look at this poll. It can't get any tighter than this, can it, James?
CARVILLE: No, it can't. Jeff Greenfield and I were talking earlier, and George Will has pointed out there's never been a time where the House shifted without the Senate. Now, as Jeff points, there's a first time for everything, this might be it. My guess is is that the closer to 20 seats, the greater the probability that the Republicans retain the Senate, the more over 30, the more -- the greater the likelihood the Democrats take the Senate.
ZAHN: You're shaking your head. Do you agree with that?
WATTS: Well, under that theory, Paula, I don't think I agree. If it's 30 to 35, i don't know how the Democrats could not take the Senate. That impacts -- those House votes impact Senate votes as well. But, again, I don't think that's the case. I think it's all going to be determined by turnout, these polls -- I'm so sick of polls I can hardly stand it.
ZAHN: I know you are.
WATTS: But I tell you, we can't measure the intensity of the vote, and something is afoot in the Republican ground swell, in the Republican grassroots that we've seen in the last ten days. And what does that mean tomorrow? We don't know. But this time tomorrow night, we'll have a good feel.
CARVILLE: Actually, they can -- they measure intensity decently, and we show -- I see intensity a little better on the Democratic side at this time. But you're right, it comes out -- Carville's first rule of politics is, it has to add up to 100 on election day. You can't end up with two candidates at...
ZAHN: You are such a swift guy. Thank you.
CARVILLE: ... it has to add up to 100.
ZAHN: Thank you for that little math lesson. You greatly enhanced our education here tonight.
Gentlemen, great to see you. J.C., James, I'll see you tomorrow night. We'll all be working right here in our lovely brand new Election Headquarters together.
We're going to take a short break. When we come back, we're going to be talking about the heads of both political parties, and they happen to be among Larry's guests. He'll join us as well.
We'll be right back.
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ZAHN: And we're back to talk about job security, or job insecurity. Two people whose jobs are riding on tomorrow's election aren't even on the ballot. They happen to be the chairmen of both parties, Republican Ken Mehlman and Democrat Howard Dean.
BLITZER: And you know, they're going to be Larry's guests. That's coming up.
Larry, you've got a big show coming up over the next hour. Tell our viewers what we can anticipate.
LARRY KING, CNN ANCHOR: Well, we got a lot going on here. We've got our panel of David Gergen, James Carville, J.C. Watts, and you, Wolf. You will participate as well because Wolf is everywhere. And then we'll be joined by Ed Henry and Jonathan Freed, covering various races around the country.
And then we'll be checking in with Representative Harold Ford, who may or may not be in trouble in Tennessee. Howard Dean, as you mentioned, the chairman of the Democratic party. We'll have the chairman of the Republican party as well. We'll be meeting senators battling in Senate battles and Senator Rick Santorum, who may be in a lot of trouble in Pennsylvania. All that ahead in about a minute and a half.
BLITZER: All right, Larry. It sounds really great.
You know, Paula, tomorrow night one of the things you're going to be doing is getting the exit polls and telling our viewers the information that we're getting from actual voters. This will be significant.
ZAHN: It's going to be significant because it's not relying on telephone communication, where people haven't voted and they're conjecturing how they might vote. We will actually be -- we have a couple of different surveys going -- but stationing people at poll places across the country.
And we will be picking them off at random after they come out after voting, and ask them a very specific series of questions, whether they voted Democratic or Republican, we want to get a sense of the issues that drove their vote. And I actually think that's going to be the most interesting part of the evening, particularly in these very close Senate races.
BLITZER: And let's hope, Larry, that these exit polls are going to be a little bit more accurate -- a lot of us remember some of those exit polls back in the year 2000. You remember that, Larry?
KING: I sure do. So I gather we will not be projecting? Or will we?
BLITZER: We will, of course, be projecting. But we'll not just be projecting on the basis of exit polls, we'll be projecting on the basis of a lot of information, including actual ballots that are cast.
KING: Thanks, guys.
ZAHN: We'll be there.
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