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U.S. Pilot Missing in Iraq; Bush Vows to Keep Troops in Iraq Until Mission is Complete
Aired November 28, 2006 - 17:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, HOST: And to our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now, it's 1:00 a.m. now in Iraq, a day after a United States Air Force jet went down during an attack on insurgents. The pilot is still missing.
Did insurgents beat U.S. troops to the crash scene?
President Bush vows victory and says he won't pull troops from the battlefield before the mission is complete.
But is a top level advisory group looking at ways to get out of Iraq?
And they're getting ironic in Iran, where the supreme looter accuses the United States of hiring terrorists to destabilize Iraq.
I'm Wolf Blitzer.
You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
The United States military has a mystery on its hands -- a pilot missing since an Air Force combat jet went down near Baghdad. Insurgents evidently got to the crash site yesterday ahead of U.S. troops. Investigators are now trying to figure out what happened.
Let's turn to our senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre -- Jamie.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SENIOR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, when a U.S. plane goes down over hostile territory, the challenge is usually to find it before the enemy does. In this case, the U.S. knew exactly where the plane went down, but it seemed to make little difference.
(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)
MCINTYRE (voice-over): By the time the U.S. military got to the scene, a farm field 20 miles northwest of Baghdad, all they found was the wreckage of the single seat F-16 smoldering in the late afternoon sun. The markings for the plane's home base, Cannon Air Force Base in New Mexico, could be seen on the tail fin. Nearby was the intact canopy and a tangled parachute harness. But there was no sign of the pilot, who the military thinks was unable to eject, and probably died in the crash.
MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM CALDWELL, SPOKESMAN, MULTI-NATIONAL FORCE-IRAQ: It does not appear to have been shot down, but rather crashed into the ground. But there was no report of the parachute. The assumption is, at this point, that he probably crashed with his aircraft at that site.
MCINTYRE: The pilot's wingman, flying another F-16, reported the plane went down in enemy territory in the insurgent stronghold of Al Anbar Province after conducting a low level strafing run-to protect U.S. troops engaged in fierce ground combat.
Overhead, U.S. planes could see insurgents swarming the crash site.
BRIG. GEN. STEPHEN HOOG, MULTINATIONAL FORCE-IRAQ: Immediately after the crash, we had both additional fighters overhead, as well as intelligence and surveillance assets. Those assets did observe insurgents in the vicinity of the crash site.
CALDWELL: There was several major fights going on up there all in close proximity to each other and the situation was very volatile.
MCINTYRE: It was several hours before the U.S. military could secure the area. Video aired by the Al Jazeera network appeared to show a body before it was taken away. The U.S. military was able to collect DNA samples and launched a search for the pilot, who is officially listed as missing.
Had the pilot ejected, it would have automatically activated an emergency beacon, even if the pilot was incapacitated.
MAJ. GEN. LARRY ARNOLD, U.S. AIR FORCE (RET.): In today's world, with our GPS locations, we know exactly where you are, within just meters.
MCINTYRE: But in this case, no beacon ever went off, another sign the pilot may have been unable to eject.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
MCINTYRE: When a pilot is downed, the U.S. military insists it pulls out all the stops to get there first. But in this case, all the U.S. technology, Wolf, was trumped by the simple fact that the insurgents were already there when the plane hit the ground -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, we'll stay on top of this story together with you, Jamie.
Thank you.
And in what could be an ominous turn for American troops, Iraq's Shiite militants may be getting help from Lebanon's Shiite militants in the battle hardened Hezbollah group. Let's get some specific details.
CNN's Brian Todd watching this story -- Brian.
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, both of these groups have a mutual admiration for each other and a mutual hatred of the U.S. So it does raise concern about new dangers for U.S. troops and their allies in Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)
TODD (voice-over): The enemies of U.S. and Iraqi forces may now have another dangerous ally, aside from al Qaeda. A senior U.S. intelligence official tells CNN members of the Mahdi Army, a lethal Shia militia led by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, have been trained by Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. Hezbollah, deemed a terrorist group by the U.S. with a long history of attacks against Americans and their allies.
U.S. officials say they don't have indications this training involves large numbers of Mahdi fighters. But they say this reinforces their belief that Shia militants like the Mahdi Army and like Hezbollah have powerful supporters.
CALDWELL: There are extremist elements that we know are being trained by different elements within Iran and there are reports that they could possibly be being trained also over in the Syria area.
TODD: The U.S. intelligence official says Al-Sadr's militants training with Hezbollah went through Syria to get to Lebanon.
Contacted by CNN, an official with the Syrian embassy said they have no information on these reports.
Iran denies supporting Shia militias in Iraq. And the head of Al-Sadr's faction in the Iraqi parliament says the charge that his followers are training with Hezbollah is "a big lie created by U.S. intelligence."
What would a military alliance between Al-Sadr and Hezbollah mean?
MAJ. JEFFREY BEATTY, FORMER FBI COUNTER-TERROR OFFICIAL: Both groups have made good use of explosives, improvised explosive devices, vehicle-borne, as well as roadside bombs. There are things that they can learn from each other on what is the most effective way to use those weapons.
TODD: Al-Sadr has already made a political threat through his followers in parliament.
SALIAH AL-AKEILI, IRAQI PARLIAMENT MEMBER (THROUGH TRANSLATOR): If the prime minister goes ahead and meets with the criminal Bush in Amman, we will suspend our membership in the Iraqi government.
(END VIDEO TAPE) TODD: Some U.S. officials and Iraqi observers say Al-Sadr may not carry out that threat and likely won't leave the government entirely. But with his control of 30 seats in parliament and six government ministries, even a disruption could be devastating -- Wolf.
BLITZER: And by all accounts, the prime minister heading to Amman tomorrow for that meeting with the president.
Thanks very much, Brian, for that.
In Iraq, it's another day of bombings and dead bodies turning up in the streets.
Meanwhile, Iran has its own view of what's behind the violence next door.
And joining us now, our correspondent in Baghdad, Michael Ware -- Michael, as you know, the president of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, has been meeting with the Iranian leadership, including the supreme ayatollah today, who accuses the United States of fomenting all sectarian strife in Iraq.
What's going on right now in terms of Iran's influence in Iraq?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, many would argue that, in fact, it's Tehran that has much more influence over this government than Washington does. Indeed, some would argue that beyond the prime minister's office and the office of the national security adviser, this government isn't much more than just an alignment of militias that, in one way or another, have a connection to Tehran.
So, you can see that the Iranian influence here really is quite strong. And in many ways, we can't expect a lot to be delivered from these meetings in terms of U.S. interests. I mean what Tehran will be looking for from the U.S. is that it won't take its foot off the accelerator until the U.S. gives it some of the things that it wants.
Tehran in Iraq has the U.S. has Washington caught, essentially, in a vise, between al Qaeda and the Sunnis on one side, and America's Sunni Arab allies in the region like Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and Iran's own regional aspirations on the others.
So this is really quite a development for Iran and U.S. policy in the Middle East.
BLITZER: Because, as you know, many American analysts feared that the Iranians are trying to create this Shiite-led access from Iran through Iraq through Syria to the Hezbollah, the Shiites in Lebanon, as well. And this is very alarming to the Sunni Arabs in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, in Egypt and elsewhere.
Is this concern realistic based on what you see?
WARE: Well, it's certainly true that U.S. military intelligence believes, and as General Abizaid this week has said, that hard-liner elements, particularly of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, or its equivalent of the Green Berets, are still entrenched in their policy of exporting the Islamic revolution of the mold that Tehran has set. And that continues.
We see their influence in southern Lebanon with Hezbollah. And they're claiming victory there with a key American ally, the Israeli Defense Forces, seem to have been defeated.
So, literally their tiles are up (ph). Here in Iraq, during a period of American strategic uncertainty, won't the resignation of Secretary Rumsfeld, the upheaval of the mid-term election, it's evident that Tehran will be looking to press its advantage.
So, yes, this is a time for Tehran to be looking to make the most of its gains.
BLITZER: Is there any realistic chance that the prime minister, Nouri Al-Maliki, is going to clamp down on Muqtada al-Sadr and his militia?
WARE: Oh, no chance whatsoever. I mean, look, we're saying, I mean, what is the reality of the government of Nouri Al-Maliki?
It's little more than an apparition. And Nouri Al-Maliki relies upon his position from Muqtada himself. So he can't blow back on that, even in the face of American pressure.
BLITZER: So, what is the next step? What happens next, as far as you can tell?
WARE: Well, there's many roads that could be taken from this point on, Wolf, and none of them are terribly attractive. We'll see what comes out of this week's meeting in Jordan between the prime minister of Iraq and President Bush. We'll see what shakes out of the tree following President Talabani's visit to Iran. We'll see what comes of the Baker-Hamilton Commission.
But honestly, there's so many options right now and, Wolf, none of them are attractive at all.
BLITZER: Michael Ware is our reporter in Baghdad.
Michael, thanks.
WARE: Thank you, Wolf.
BLITZER: Let's go to New York.
Jack Cafferty has "The Cafferty File" -- Jack.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The more I see him, the better I like him. Boy, he's good.
BLITZER: He's -- and, you know, he's a courageous guy, right?
CAFFERTY: Yes.
BLITZER: I can't help but stress, three-and-a-half years he's been on the front lines covering this war. That takes a lot of guts.
CAFFERTY: And speaking from, you know, from the gut and from the heart and spitting back facts to the questions, not political posturing or position papers. It's I'm here and this is what's going on. And, boy, is that refreshing.
The president elect of the Christian Coalition of America has stepped down citing differences over which issues the group should embrace. The Reverend Joel Hunter, pastor of a Florida mega church, was elected this past summer to head the group and was set to take over in January. He wanted to broaden the CCA's political agenda beyond its very vocal push to ban abortion and gay marriage, and that didn't go over too well with some of the other CCA leaders.
Hunter argues that many conservative Christians feel issues important to them, like fighting poverty or global warming, are not being addressed at all. The CCA is the socially conservative group founded by Pat Robertson back in 1989. They've got more than two million members and traditionally they have enjoyed some significant political clout in the past.
But with leadership issues and a Democratic Congress set to take over in January, its influence may be waning.
Here's the question then this hour -- is the Christian right losing its edge?
E-mail your thoughts on that to caffertyfile@cnn.com or go to cnn.com/caffertyfile.
If Michael Ware runs for president, I'll vote for him.
BLITZER: He's originally from Australia, so I suspect he can't.
CAFFERTY: Change the law.
BLITZER: OK, Jack.
Thanks very much.
Up ahead, President Bush on an overseas mission rallying for the war in Iraq. We'll take you live to Latvia, where he's meeting with NATO leaders ahead of a crucial mission to the Middle East.
Also, Iraq turns to its neighbor Iran for help in ending the violence.
What will come of the talks and can they succeed without the U.S.?
Plus, a White House driven by faith and, some say, that's putting it on a collision course with the Muslim world.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BLITZER: Iraq is at the top of President Bush's agenda as he visits the Baltics for a NATO summit just ahead of a meeting tomorrow in Jordan with Iraq's prime minister.
Our White House correspondent, Suzanne Malveaux, is traveling with the president.
She's joining us now live from Riga in Latvia.
What's the latest -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, as you know, of course, the focus for the NATO summit is on promoting democracy in Afghanistan. It is NATO summit's largest military undertaking, but it is the war in Iraq that is overshadowing the agenda.
President Bush tomorrow will be traveling to Amman, Jordan. That is where he is meeting with the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri Al-Maliki, as well as the host of Jordan, King Abdullah. The three of them will have a meeting and then he'll break for dinner with Abdullah. And the following day is when he has that one-on-one, face-to-face with Maliki over the crisis, the security crisis inside of Iraq.
Now, today we heard from President Bush again, once again, looking at the deterioration of the conditions inside of Iraq, but refusing to call the growing chaos and carnage between these warring Iraqi factions as civil war. The president explaining and using an old and familiar argument, blaming the fighting on al Qaeda.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The bombings that took place recently was part of a pattern that has been going on for about nine months. I'm going to bring this subject up, of course, with Prime Minister Maliki when I visit with him in Jordan on Thursday.
My questions to him will be what do we need to do to succeed? What is your strategy in dealing with the sectarian violence?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: President Bush has come under increasing pressure, as you know, Wolf, to come up with his own strategy to figure out how all of this is going to work. The Iraq Study Group, as you know, that bipartisan commission, is due to release its report fairly soon. And one of the expected recommendations is for the Bush administration to talk directly to Iran and Syria, with no preconditions.
Well, today we heard from President Bush, flatly rejecting that suggestion.
So is it really quite uncertain where all of this is going -- Wolf. BLITZER: He certainly didn't seem to deviate from any of his longstanding positions in those remarks he delivered earlier today in Latvia.
Suzanne, thanks very much for that.
While President Bush is adamantly refusing direct talks with Iran right now, that's not stopping Iraq from engaging its neighbor to the east.
Let's bring in CNN's Carol Costello.
She's watching this part of the story -- Carol.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, that's right. The president of Iran reaching out to Iraq and Syria for a summit to try to find a way to stop the violence in Iraq. But -- and there's always a but when it comes to Iran -- there is a more cynical view here -- the invitation was really designed to upstage expected moves by the Bush administration to include Iran and Syria in a regional effort to stop the violence.
(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)
COSTELLO (voice-over): As the violence rages on in Iraq, its president is on the move to stop it.
One possible solution?
Engage Iran. Iraqi officials met with Iran's president, the same man who says President Bush is inspired by Satan. He welcomed Iraq's President Jalal Talabani, listening as Iran's supreme leader placed blame for the bloodshed in Iraq on the United States.
The Ayatollah Ali Khameini blamed U.S. policy for sectarian violence. He says it's America who must withdraw its fighting forces to stop the violence, not Iran. And he claimed Iran would spare no effort to promote stability and security in Iraq if Iraqi officials call for such help.
(on camera): Some Americans might look at this meeting between the Iraqis and Iranians and get really worried and say what's up with that? Should Americans be worried?
ROBERT MALLEY, INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP: We have to get used to the fact that over time, geography is what determines so much of a country's foreign policy and geography dictates that Iraqis and Iranians are going to have to find some relationship in order to move forward.
COSTELLO (voice-over): But Malley says no movement is likely until the one party missing in this room comes to the table -- the United States.
And don't expect that to happen any time soon. President Bush spent this day in Latvia talking of extremists in Syria, Lebanon and Iran.
BUSH: Armed with nuclear weapons, they could blackmail the free world, spread their ideologies of hate and raise a mortal threat to Europe, America and the entire civilized world.
COSTELLO: Those words make it difficult for the Iraqi president and his U.S.-backed government to move forward with Iran. Malley says the U.S. must stop the rhetoric.
MALLEY: Our main priority in the region now is to get Iraq right. If we are doing this with one hand tied behind our back because we're not talking to the neighbor of Iraq that has the greatest influence in that country, Iran, then we cannot succeed. So we're going to have to change our own policies if we want to get somewhere, to a better place, in Iraq.
COSTELLO: Until the U.S. and Iran can work something out civilly, Iran is not likely to help Iraq much. Experts say the more unrest in Iraq, the more power Iran wields over the United States.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
COSTELLO: So, will anything come of this?
Iran is said to be deeply involved in training, funding and arming the two major Shiite militias in Iraq. It's hoped that will stop with diplomacy. But Iran isn't going to do that unless it gets something in return. And that something, Wolf, will have to come from the United States.
BLITZER: We'll see how this story plays out together with you, Carol.
Thank you very much.
And still to come, they could play a critical role in reshaping the war in Iraq.
So who exactly are the 10 people behind the Iraq Study Group and how might they put some -- President Bush in an awkward position?
CNN's Mary Snow is talking to the experts.
Plus, an Evangelical Christian president and some say the most religious White House in memory.
So are they putting the U.S. on a collision course, potentially, with the Islamic world?
Check this story out, as well. Zain Verjee on the story.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Good, evil and god given duties -- both supporters and critics of President Bush agree they're the notions that drive the man and help shape his foreign policy. But they've also helped put the United States, critics say, on a potential collision course with the Muslim world.
Our State Department correspondent, Zain Verjee, is joining us live with more -- Zain.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN STATE DEPARTMENT CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, when it comes to foreign policy, the president says he answers to a higher power.
(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)
BUSH: I believe that god wants everybody to be free and that's part of my foreign policy.
VERJEE (voice-over): A president anchored by his faith and driven by a higher purpose, especially after 9/11.
DAVID GERGEN, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER: It's giving him something of a Messianic view of what America's role is in the world.
VERJEE: Presidential historians say it's the most religious White House in memory.
RALPH REED, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: The president's faith brings moral clarity to his beliefs and conclusions.
VERJEE: A strong, clear belief of good and evil, and of what he views as a god-given duty to promote democracy worldwide.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, JANUARY 28, 2003)
BUSH: The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world, it is god's gift to humanity.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VERJEE: He says he wants to give that gift to Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon. But the U.S.-led war on terror is viewed by many in the region as pitting East against West, Christianity against Islam.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, SEPTEMBER 16, 2001)
BUSH: This crusade, this war on terrorism, it's going to take a while.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AUGUST 10, 2006)
BUSH: This nation is at war with Islamic fascists.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VERJEE: Those words have inflamed the Muslim world. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He would rather learn about terrorists than about my faith.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He created this problem between the West and the East.
VERJEE: Previous presidents have believed in spreading democracy, but not as fervently as President Bush.
GERGEN: I think it's very unusual and I do think, to a partial degree, springs from his religious devotion.
VERJEE: Faith also appears to have guided this president on humanitarian issues Evangelicals care about. Aid to Africa has nearly tripled under the Bush administration, with a focus on fighting HIV/AIDS. The president also took decisive steps to end the war in southern Sudan, where millions of Christians were killed. And he remains engaged in the Darfur crisis.
Like other Evangelicals, the president also shares a strong sympathy for Israel.
TIM SHAH, PEW FORUM ON RELIGION IN PUBLIC LIFE: A lot of Evangelicals believe that Israel will play an important role in the end time, when Christ returns again.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
VERJEE: Some experts say that the president's faith helps make him a decisive leader. Once he determines it's god's will to act, it's hard to sway him.
They also say that that could leave him less flexible and less likely to change course -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Zain Verjee is our State Department correspondent.
Zain, thank you for that.
And coming up here in THE SITUATION ROOM, a U.S. warplane downed in Iraq. The fate of its pilot unknown. We'll get the latest from the top spokesman for the multinational force in Iraq, Major General Bill Caldwell.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: You're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Happening now, harmony not hostilities, that's the message Pope Benedict is delivering as he begins a four-day visit to Turkey, his first trip to a Muslim country since becoming Pope. He urged unity between Islam and Christianity and pledged to support Turkey's bid to join the European Union.
In Cuba, a big birthday party, but the guest of honor was not there. Cubans are celebrating Fidel Castro's 80th birthday today, but the Cuban president was unable to attend, he's still recovering after emergency surgery in July for an undisclosed illness.
And a federal judge says the Treasury Department has denied the blind meaningful access to money. The judge has ordered the government to come up with ways for blind people to tell their bills apart. Advocates for the blind have proposed bills of different sizes or adding raised dots. I'm Wolf Blitzer, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
An independent bipartisan panel today wound up an intensive two- day huddle trying to agree on recommendations for President Bush on how to change course in Iraq. It may be one of the most important foreign policies calls for the United States in decades if the advisors themselves can reach a consensus. Let's get some more now from CNN's Mary Snow. Mary?
MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, collectively, they have vast experience in government and their suggestions will carry significant weight.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SNOW (voice-over): They are known by some as the wise men to the White House, although not all are men. The collective brain trust on what to do about Iraq, known as the Iraq Study Group, is unprecedented.
DAVID GERGEN, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER: This is in effect the first example we've had of outscoring foreign policy making from the White House.
SNOW: That outsourcing if you will, is in the hands of ten members, five Democrats, five Republicans and is co-declared by former Secretary of State James Baker, a Republican, and former Congressman Lee Hamilton, a Democrat.
BUSH: We've had people who have served in the administration, administrations past, in our court system, in the legislative branch.
SNOW: But critics say the bipartisan panel has omitted some key members.
DAN GOURE, LEXINGTON INSTITUTE: Two striking things about this group is the absolute lack of real experience with the Middle East and the relative lack of military experience.
SNOW: The panel does include former Defense Secretary William Perry but it also includes retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor and former Clinton adviser Vernon Jordan, neither of whom are known for military or foreign policy experience.
GERGEN: What they do bring is an overriding sense of patriotism and desire to help the country get out of the ditch in Iraq and to do it in a way that's more bipartisan. SNOW: David Gergen, a former adviser to four presidents says, presidents in the past such as President Kennedy when he dealt with the Cuban missile crisis, met with their wise men privately. He says the fact that the Iraq Study Group's recommendations are public, puts the president in an awkward position.
GERGEN: If he accepts he looks like he's kowtowing to an outside group, but if he rejects, it looks like he's in denial.
(END OF VIDEOTAPE)
SNOW: David Gergen also says the big unanswered question is whether it is already too late for the United States to make a significant difference in Iraq. Wolf?
BLITZER: All right Mary, thank you. Mary Snow reporting. Meanwhile, the U.S. military is still trying to find out what happened to the pilot of that U.S. air force jet fighter which crashed yesterday during an attack on insurgents in Iraq. Major General Bill Caldwell is the spokesman for the multinational force in Iraq.
Because it looks like the insurgents got to the scene of the crash before U.S. forces did.
MAJ. GEN. BILL CALDWELL, MULTI-NATIONAL FORCE-IRAQ: Well, Wolf, you're entirely correct. We had an F-16 yesterday about 1:30 our time that was on a strafing run, running low to the ground in support of some ground troops. And it does not appear to have been shot down, but rather, crashed into the ground. We did not see a parachute. It appeared the pilot did not eject and it was several hours before American forces were able to get ground combat elements on the ground to secure that crash site. And by that time, we were unable to locate the pilot.
BLITZER: Several hours seems like a long time to get forces to the scene of this crash. What took so long?
CALDWELL: Well, they're looking at the entire situation right now, Wolf. There were several major fights going on up there, all in the close proximity to each other. The situation was very volatile. A lot of air assets moving around. Combat forces were reinforcing the area where another helicopter set down with a hard landing and was engaged with some ground elements. And so they were making determinations as they were moving and ground forces got there just as soon as they could to the crash site.
BLITZER: And the fate of the pilot, did he eject, did he crash? What do we know about the fate of the pilot?
CALDWELL: Well, Wolf, we really don't know right now. We're carrying him as duty status and whereabouts unknown at this point. But there's no report of a parachute. The assumption is at this point that he probably crashed with his aircraft at that site.
BLITZER: Any lessons that should be learned in terms of protecting pilots who are flying at these low level strafing runs over very, very hostile territory. Any immediate lessons jump to mind from this incident?
CALDWELL: Well the air force is obviously been looking at it very closely. They've already established a board that's on the site right now doing the analysis. But from what we can tell in this case, the pilot was not shot down as the initial indications but rather was conducting a low strafing run trying to help ground forces that were in desperate contact at the moment.
BLITZER: Let's move on to talk about Muqtada Al Sadr, the radical Shiite cleric. He's threatening to pull his support from the government of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki if the prime minister goes ahead and meets with President Bush in Jordan over the next few days. Militarily, there could be some serious ramifications if this were to happen. Are you preparing military contingencies right now for a collapse, potentially of the Nouri Al Maliki government?
CALDWELL: Well first of all, let me just say, if you talk to the government of Iraq officials as to how serious they take that threat, they don't. We've engaged with them, we've had ongoing discussions. They see this as some posturing, perhaps, by Muqtadr Al Sadr, but not really as a serious threat. I think Sadr himself realizes there is some goodness to come out of an engagement between the president of the United States and the prime minister and I think he'll find that he's going to have to actually be willing to understand and be supportive of the ongoing operation that will occur there tomorrow between the two of them in Jordan.
BLITZER: I remember speaking with one of the earlier U.S. military commanders in Iraq, Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez. Listen to what he said on April 12th, 2004 about Muqtadr Al Sadr, a man he said had American blood on his hands. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEN. RICARDO SANCHEZ, U.S. ARMY: The mission of the U.S. forces is to kill and capture Muqtadr Al Sadr. That's our mission.
(END OF VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: He said that's the U.S. mission. Is that still the U.S. mission to capture or kill Muqtadr Al Sadr?
CALDWELL: No, our mission right now is to support the government of Iraq and Muqtadr Al Sadr is part of the political process. He's joined into that. He has stated that he wants to see this unity government succeed. We take him at face value for what he's saying. And we're working with the entire government to make the situation here succeed.
BLITZER: So that mission has changed, as a result of what?
CALDWELL: Well, the mission has changed as a result of the fact that we now have a democratically elected government in place as about seven months ago. And in fact, they are passing laws, they're convening, they're having their council representative meetings and so we're here supporting that political process as it moves forward, albeit very challenging and very slowly, but it is moving forward.
BLITZER: The civil war, as some are calling it now in Iraq, you're reluctant now, I take it, to acknowledge that it is now a full- scale civil war, is that right, militarily speaking?
CALDWELL: Well, here's what I would tell you, Wolf. As I listen to the government of Iraq, the prime minister, the President Talabani, you know they will tell you themselves that they are not in a civil war. And I put tremendous faith in them doing the assessment of what's going on in their country. Despite all the difference that we see out there, all the political parties recognize the legitimacy of this political process in this government. And no political party has yet ceded from this government and tried to form its own nation. So, what I would tell you is that yes, the level of violence that we see currently today in Baghdad is unacceptable. And it has to come down. But that in itself is different than people trying to characterize what's going on in the whole country.
BLITZER: Major General Bill Caldwell speaking with me from Baghdad earlier. Still to come, not that politics necessarily is a popularity contest but which politicians might Americans like most and least? We'll have some answers and discuss that and a lot more in our strategy session. And another high honor for Condoleezza Rice. Will she win a coveted title handed out only once a year? Stay tuned, we'll tell you what's going on right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: One of the more vocal critics of President Bush's Iraq policy is former President Jimmy Carter. Just a short while ago, right here in THE SITUATION ROOM, he told me the invasion of Iraq was a huge mistake by any standard.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JIMMY CARTER, FORMER PRESIDENT: It's going to prove I believe to be one of the greatest blunders that American presidents have ever made.
BLITZER: Bigger than Vietnam?
CARTER: I think it's going to be a close call but perhaps much more vividly known by the rest of the world than Vietnam was.
(END OF VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Former president, that's coming up 7:00 p.m. eastern right here in THE SITUATION ROOM. Do you have to like them to vote for them? Today in our strategy session the possible presidential contenders in 2008 get the results of a popularity contest. Joining us now our two CNN political analysts, Paul Begala is a Democratic strategist, J.C. Watts is a former Republican Congressman. And I'll put these numbers, Paul I'll start with you. In terms of favorability on a scale of 0 to 100, the top three, Rudy Giuliani, Barack Obama and John McCain in the middle somewhere. John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, not very popular, in terms of favorability. Newt Gingrich and look at this, John Kerry right at the bottom of a very, very long list put out by Quinnipiac University in their poll. What do you think, do Americans vote for people they want to hang out with?
PAUL BEGALA, POLITICAL ANALYST: Maybe a little, maybe some. But I actually give voters a lot more credit than that. I think they actually care about who cares about them. The internal that I always look at in polls, I look at a lot of them, but one of them is, who cares about people like me? It's slightly different from whether I want to like hang out and have a beer. Look, I'd still like to hang out and have I guess a iced tea with President Bush, he seems like a perfectly delightful man.
BLITZER: Because a lot of people say they voted for Bush back in 2000 because he seemed like a nice guy, go out and watch a football game with him, a baseball game. Just like Bill Clinton was a nice guy, you want to go out, especially, if you like sports or whatever, go out and hang out with him.
BEGALA: Sure. And I'll bet you he'd be a ton of fun. But he lost the popular vote by half a million votes to Al Gore, who many people thought was a little more formal in his presentation. And I think most people right now, well we know, a huge majority of Americans right now, while they might like to watch a football game with President Bush, they really don't like him running our country. And I think that the notion of just being kind of just a friendly chummy guy, is really going to be out in '08. I think competence, brains, integrity, truth telling, which many Americans feel we haven't been getting from this president, that's what's going to be in, in '08.
BLITZER: I know I'd like to watch a football game with J.C. Watts, I know you would as well. What do you think about this whole notion of popularity and likability as a political factor?
J.C. WATTS, POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, to some people, Wolf, that does matter, believe it or not. And I heard Charlie Cook, the poster that's been on this show many times, heard him say in the 2004 election, he said, is John Kerry someone you would want to go fishing with if he knew you were not going to catch anything? And I thought that summed it up very well. I thought President Bush was very likable, so, you know don't dismiss these numbers. I do think it's more than that, but that does matter, if it's somebody that when you hear them speak or you hear their agenda for America, when you can say, "me too." That does matter.
BLITZER: Because as you know, he was criticized severely for the wind surfing photo op that came right in the middle of the Republican convention in New York. And a lot of Americans said they didn't necessarily relate to that.
BEGALA: I thought it was a dumb thing for Senator Kerry to do. But it also points out how dumb we in the media are. We play to those sorts of things. I do it less than most tell you the truth. We in the media play to that kind of stuff. It was a photo op, it was dumb for Kerry to do it. But it was Kerry's job in that election to raise the bar and say -- nobody wind surfs in Ohio, ok? But instead, to say, who do you trust with your son's life? If your son is a young marine in Anbar Province, do you really trust Mr. Bush with his life or me? He could have raised and matched Bush and beating Bush at that level and (INAUDIBLE) to all this nonsense of who do you want to watch a football game with.
BLITZER: Do you want to respond to that?
WATTS: Well, I do. Because then Paul, you should know better than anybody, because in '92, I thought you and James and the team around President Clinton did a very good job in painting him as a common guy, a normal guy. That yes, he's concerned about all of the national issues of the day, but he's one of us. So, Wolf, it does matter. Again, I don't think that's the only thing, but I do think that that matters.
BLITZER: Well, the story that Bill Clinton used to take polls to see where he should go on vacation?
BEGALA: Dick Morris, who is a professional liar, has said that. I don't know if it's true. So I honestly don't know. Not in my experience, but now I wasn't working for President Clinton when Mr. Morris was advising him. Morris says it's true, he was his pollster so I suppose he would know. But I do think there's a pendulum, right, after President Carter, who some people thought maybe was a little too informal. We went to Reagan who was more of an imperial sort of style, very magisterial, I mean a wonderful communicator. There we had a little more folksy. With Clinton, I think we kind of swing it back and forth. But I think what we're going to be looking for now is a correction against what Bush has been. And frankly, not to be unfair to our president, I think people see him as stupid, stubborn and ideological.
BLITZER: J.C., Rudy Giuliani comes up atop this poll and also the other CNN poll among registered Republicans, who they like right now. He even does better than John McCain.
WATTS: Well I think John McCain is a very likable guy. I've spent time with John. I've spent time with Rudy. They both are likable guys. Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, I mean we've got some likable people on the Republican side that people would say "me too." But again, to say that it doesn't matter is crazy. And if you think it doesn't matter, y'all put John Kerry up again in '08 and we'll see how much it matters.
BEGALA: I think the issues matter more. Personality matters a whole lot.
WATTS: Hopefully John Kerry, who's against the war -
BEGALA: The idea is not, see this is part of the Democrats got wrong about Ronald Reagan. Democrats got wrong about Ronald Reagan. We just said well, he's an amiable dunce. He was famously called that by a Harvard professor. Well you know it wasn't just his amiability, I didn't agree with him, but Reagan's ideas had power, Clinton's ideas had power. That's why those two men were the colossus of politics in our time, not just because they were likable. WATTS: The Ronald Reagan people said, me too, I like that guy.
BLITZER: We have to leave it there guys. Thanks very much.
And Lou Dobbs is getting ready for his show that begins right at the top of the hour. Lou, what are you working on?
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Well thank you, coming up at 6:00 p.m. eastern here on CNN, tonight we're reporting on rising outrage over American companies investing in countries such as Syria and Iran, countries that sponsor terrorism. Are some U.S. corporation's bank rolling radical Islamist terrorism? We'll have that special report tonight. Also, U.S. border patrol Chief David Aguilar trying to reshape the national debate on illegal immigration and our border security crisis. Aguilar says the country's number one priority must be to stop terrorists from crossing our borders. Anyone in Washington listening, we'll find out.
And home price falling sharply, mortgage interest rates rising, middle class Americans suffering like never before. We'll have that special report in war on the middle class. All of that and more at the top of the hour. I'll also be talking with the Reverend Jesse Jackson about vial and the hateful language. Back to you Wolf.
BLITZER: Lou, sounds good. Thanks very much. And up ahead, Jack Cafferty wants to know if the Christian right is losing its edge, especially with Democrats set to take control of Congress. Jack with your thoughts right after this.
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BLITZER: Let's check back with Jack in New York. Jack?
JACK CAFFERTY: The president-elect, Wolf of the Christian Coalition of America has stepped down citing differences over which issues that group should embrace, prompting us to ask is the Christian right losing its edge. From David, "Well, as long as we have a radical Christian fundamentalist for a president, I don't know how you can say his base is losing its edge. A more relevant question would be whether a faith-based presidency is constitutional. After all, we rail at Iran and the other Islamic countries for their lack of separation between church and state. Why not look more closely at ourselves." Frank, who identifies himself as a pastor writes, "No, I think the religious right will actually be strengthened by the Democrats' victory. Groups like Focus on the Family prospered and flourished when former President Clinton was at the height of his antics. As soon as President Bush got elected and the Republicans took over, support for focus and other ministries fell off. The values the Democrats in the far left will bring to the table will mobilize and unify the currently somewhat scattered religious right."
Dan in Stillwater, Minnesota, "Yes, the Christian right is losing influence, and it should. I say this as someone who would be identified as Christian right. The problem is due to its efforts to effect socio-political change via a power grab. This is not biblical. The Christian right needs to focus on helping the Christian community understand and embrace a mature biblical world view and then offer leadership help starting at the county courthouse. Not the White House." Kirk, in Apple Valley, Minnesota, "They never had an edge to begin with. They just wanted everybody in the country to do what they said and we finally said enough is enough. If Jesus taught love, then why does the Christian right hate so many so much?"
And Dave in Spring Hill, Kansas writes, "I think the large number of people are finally waking up to the fact that the religious right is neither." If you didn't see your email here, you can go to cnn.com/caffertyfile where you can read more of these online. Wolf?
BLITZER: See you back here in an hour Jack, thank you. And up next, one of the most important figures on the world stage, might that earn Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice an annual honor not many have achieved. We'll tell you when we come back.
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BLITZER: Might Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice win a distinction given only once a year.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice crisscrossing the globe as the diplomatic sands shift in Iraq and in Washington, D.C. The top U.S. diplomat lands a nomination as "Time" magazine's person of the year.
ROMESH RATNESAR, WORLD EDITOR, "TIME": Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State, I think, has emerged as the pivotal figure in the Bush administration's national security team. As secretary of state she's come into her own and she's developed a level of influence within the administration I think only the vice president possibly can match. Her main accomplishment is sort of shifting the rhetoric of the administration's foreign policy away from this kind of unilateralist, with us or against us approach that we saw in the first term. We could see next year or the year after Condoleezza Rice really being thrust to the forefront as the U.S. tries to deal with both managing some type of withdrawal from Iraq and also dealing with the threats from Iran and North Korea.
(END OF VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: See you in an hour with Jimmy Carter, let's go to Lou Dobbs in New York. Lou?
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