Return to Transcripts main page
The Situation Room
Will the Bush Administration Change Course in Iraq?; John Bolton Resigns as U.S. Ambassador to U.N.; Gates Confirmation Hearings Begin Tomorrow; Jeb Bush and Michael Bloomberg Team Up
Aired December 04, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: To our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now -- U.S. policy in Iraq at a crossroad. President Bush meets with the top Shiite leader at the start of a pivotal week for the future of the war. It's 4:00 p.m. here in Washington, where the White House now acknowledges a new approach in Iraq is need. But what will it be?
Also this hour, Donald Rumsfeld's exit strategy. His leak memo on Iraq creates a stir just before his likely replacement's confirmation hearings. We'll look at the Pentagon politics and the changing of the guard.
And is Hillary Clinton off and running? The senator reaches out to fellow New York Democrats and sets off new buzz about her White House hopes. I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM
We're expecting to hear shortly from President Bush and the outgoing U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, he today, announced he's calling it quits. We're going to bring you that video as soon as it comes here into THE SITUATION ROOM.
First though this hour, make or break moments for the Bush White House -- under intense pressure this week to change direction in Iraq. President Bush met just a short while ago with a Shiite leader, the leader of the largest block in Iraq's parliament. It's the first time meeting in a series of meetings and possible turning points in wartime policy and the days ahead. And that includes hearings for the president's choice to take over the Pentagon and the highly anticipated report by the Iraq Study Group.
It's all playing out against the backdrop of growing and gut- wrenching violence that is costing U.S. forces and many Iraqi people their lives. Iraqi police say they have uncovered 106 bodies in Baghdad alone over the past two days -- many of them showing signs of torture.
Our congressional correspondent Andrea Koppel is standing by, but let's go to our White House correspondent, Ed Henry where there are dramatic meetings happening today.
Ed, what is the latest, first of all on the president's meeting with that Shiite leader?
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, as you noted, the stakes are high and the pressure building on the president with Iraq Study Group's report coming out Wednesday. Clearly, the president trying to crank up the diplomacy in advance of that report. He's also trying to send a message to the American people who are frustrated with this war that he gets it, he understands the problems he's facing and that he needs to find a new course.
The president saying he told that Shiite leader Abdul Aziz al- Hakim, that the U.S. is just not satisfied with the progress on the ground in Iraq. It's time to finally stop the sectarian violence. Al-Hakim obviously a rival to the anti-American Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr. The president clearly here trying to give a boost to the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Take a listen to what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES I told his eminence that I was proud of the courage of the Iraqi people. I told him that we're not satisfied with the pace of progress in Iraq. And that we want to continue to work with the sovereign government of Iraq to accomplish our mutual objectives. Which is a free country that can govern itself, sustain itself, and defend itself -- a free country which will serve as a ally in the war against the extremists and radicals and terrorists.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Now, for his part, al-Hakim said that he doesn't want a regional solution or effort to solve Iraq's problems -- an apparent reference to Iran staying out. The president meanwhile will be cranking up the diplomacy even more later this week. On Thursday he is going to be hosting British Prime Minister Tony Blair the day after this Iraq Study report comes out -- Wolf.
BLITZER: It looks like al-Hakim, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the Shiite leader, slapping down what is widely anticipated to be one of the major proposals of the Baker/Hamilton Iraq Study Group, mainly regional cooperation, some sort of international conference. It's clear that the Shiites in Iraq at least this Shiite leader, hates that idea because he doesn't want Sunnis -- he doesn't want Sunnis involved from Saudi Arabia or Jordan or others.
I think the president, we're getting that tape in right now, we'll be getting it shortly. The president is speaking with John Bolton, but, yesterday, one of the Kurdish leaders in Iraq, Jalal Talabani, the president of Turkey, slapped down the idea of an international conference as well. It's clear the Iraqi Kurds don't like the idea of Turkey, one of their nemesis, one of their antagonists if you will, playing any role in Iraq's future. What is the White House, if anything, saying about this?
HENRY: Well, the White House, obviously, they like having al- Hakim say that because they do not necessarily want to embrace that recommendation from the Baker/Hamilton report. Since al-Hakim is somebody with close ties to Iran. As you know, he had been there for many years in exile while Saddam Hussein was in power. Those words coming from him have more meaning, more significance, and certainly the White House embracing those remarks from al-Hakim because they do not want to jump on board these Baker/Hamilton recommendations.
In fact, there are multiple reports going on as you know. Not just the Baker/Hamilton report. White House spokesman Tony Snow pointing out today, the Pentagon, State Department and the National Security Council here as well doing their own reviews and so it may the not be the Baker/Hamilton report that gets the final say here.
And finally, reporters asking a question to Tony Snow whether or not in fact this may be a chance for the president to get some political cover by having the reports out there, basically able to snub the Baker/Hamilton group and say look, I rather go with the Pentagon or the National Security Council approach, White House is insisting no, they're just trying to do a thorough job, Wolf.
BLITZER: Earlier today, John Bolton announcing he has resigned from the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. The president saying he has reluctantly accepting that resignation. And only in the past few minutes the past few minutes, they let met in the White House, the president expressing his appreciation to John Bolton, although he can't get himself confirmed. Let's watch this tape:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: ... resignation of Ambassador John Bolton, I accept it, I'm not happy about it. I think he deserved to be confirmed. The reason why I think he deserved to be confirmed is because I know he did a fabulous job for the country. And I want to thank you and Gretchen for serving in a very important position and doing so in a way that a lot of Americans really appreciate, John.
It's -- we're going to miss you in this administration. You've been a stallworth defender of freedom and peace. You've been strong in your advocacy for human rights and human dignity. You've done everything that can be expected for an ambassador, and I accept your letter and I wish you and Gretchen all the very best.
JOHN BOLTON, OUTGOING U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE U.N.: Many thanks.
BUSH: Appreciate it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Let me bring in our senior United Nations correspondent at the United Nations, Richard Roth. Bolton stepping down, not a huge surprise since he couldn't get confirmed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Richard. What is the reaction at the U.N.?
RICHARD ROTH, CNN SENIOR UNITED NATIONS CORRESPONDENT: I think it's mixed, Wolf. The United Nations Security Council ambassadors were sorry you know I think to see him go. They worked very well with him, intensely on resolutions, including North Korea crises and Lebanon.
So China said, yes, he's different but we work together well. of course, they've worked together previously on other issues. One Arab ambassador said, look an ambassador represents a country, he's not his own state, but clearly when John Bolton came here, you may remember, Wolf, huge hue and cry because he had said in an old quote that you could take ten floors off the U.N. building and nobody would notice. Well, this ambassador said John Bolton came, he was accommodating and now the ten floors are still standing here.
BLITZER: Cast of characters changing in these final two years of the Bush administration. John Bolton will be gone, Donald Rumsfeld will be gone, Richard Roth will still be with us. Thanks very much. You're not leaving the United Nations post any time soon. Richard Roth is our man at the U.N.
Let's move on to the man expected to take charge of the Pentagon and carry out any change of course in Iraq. Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates is on Capitol Hill today on the eve of his confirmation hearings. Let's turn to our congressional correspondent, Andrea Koppel -- Andrea.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And Wolf, as the former head of the CIA, Robert Gates, certainly has the right credentials for the job, but the main reason tomorrow's hearing won't be a nail-biter has more to do with the fact that lawmakers want to move as quickly as possible to replace the man who is currently got the job.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL (voice-over): Forget the suspense. If you want to know why Robert Gates is a likely shoo-in to become the next secretary of defense, just listen to one of the Bush administration's biggest critics.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: We need a new secretary of defense. We don't need a big fight here.
KOPPEL: The only fight Gates and West Virginia's Robert Byrd shouted about was a hypothetical face-off in college football.
ROBERT GATES, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE NOMINEE: Happily, the University of West Virginia does not play Texas A&M Universities.
KOPPEL: And so as Gates, most recently the president of Texas A&M made his final congressional courtesy calls, the question wasn't if he would be confirmed as secretary of defense, but what he'll do about Iraq once he gets the job.
SEN. JOHN CORNYN (R), TEXAS: I think he will say, as he has to this point, that he believes that a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq would be -- would not be in the best interest of the United States or of the region.
KOPPEL: The incoming chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee wants to know if Gates is ready to challenge administration policy.
SEN. CARL LEVIN, (D) MICHIGAN: Is he willing to speak truth to power? Is he willing to tell the president what the president might not want to hear? That's not been the case too often with this administration.
KOPPEL: One of the worst defenders, suggests Levin, is the current Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. While Republican Susan Collins wondered why Rumsfeld told Bush last month a major adjustment was needed in Iraq, he hadn't told Congress.
SEN. SUSAN COLLINS, (R-ME) SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE: I found the memo to be inconsistent with very recent testimony and statements by the secretary of defense.
KOPPEL: In 1987, some senators didn't buy the testimony and statements of then Deputy CIA Director Robert Gates about his knowledge of the Iran-Contra scandal. But now, senators say there are more important questions to grill Gates on.
SEN. EVAN BAYH, (D-IN) ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE: I'm more concerned about his views going forward than I am what happened 20 years ago.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL (on camera): Now, that means that Senator Bayh will be asking Gates what he thinks the U.S. should do to resolve the nuclear standoffs with Iran and North Korea. But, Wolf, most of the questioning tomorrow will be focusing by Senator Bayh and his colleagues on getting Gates to lay out his vision as to what he thinks and how he thinks the U.S. can resolve the biggest military crisis facing the U.S. today in Iraq -- Wolf.
BLITZER: And we'll have extensive lie coverage of those confirmation hearings throughout the day beginning tomorrow here on CNN.
Andrea, thank you for that.
There's a huge shadow hanging over Gates' confirmation hearings. That would be the man he's been tapped to replace, Donald Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld is going out with a bang of controversy after the disclosure of his memo calling for a, quote, "major adjustment in Iraq."
We bring in our senior national correspondent, John Roberts.
It looks like the day before the election, Donald Rumsfeld was saying one thing in private which was very different to the kind of things he was saying in public.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. And take a look at what President Bush said just a week before the election as well in that press conference. He said, we're winning and we will win unless we leave Iraq before the job is done. Meanwhile, Donald Rumsfeld is penning this memo that says things aren't going well, we need a major course correction. He really was at odds with what the public statements were, not just by Donald Rumsfeld but the White House as well.
And I've talked to a lot of people about this today, and they say that, well sure, the White House always puts the best spin it can, the rosiest picture it can on events. But when it comes to war, the public really wants it straight. And here's an indication, they say, that the White House was saying one thing in public and thinking quite another in private.
BLITZER: And it's the second such memo that was leaked to the "New York Times". Their military affairs correspondent, Michael Gordon, got both of these, the Stephen Hadley memo, the national security adviser to the president, Rumsfeld's memo.
Now it looks like this administration in the days before the election once again was saying one thing publicly and a very different thing behind the scenes.
ROBERTS: I'd like be negotiating Michael Gordan's contract with the "New York Times" coming up. I am sure he's going to do pretty well for himself.
But here's the other thing, Wolf, is that we see the president in public still sticking pretty much with the script. I mean, the day after the Hadley memo came out, questioning whether or not al Maliki was the right guy for the job, President Bush said pretty unequivocally that he was in that press conference with Maliki that he was.
I spoke with David Gergen, former White House adviser under two presidents, Republican and Democrat, about this. And he says, you know, here's the danger for President Bush, and the danger is that people have thought up until now it was people like Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney who were driving the president forward.
Now with all of these concerns being aired by the president's closest advisers, there's a perception, perhaps, that the president is the one who's not listening to anybody else, he's got his own ideas, his own agenda and he's pursuing it regardless of what everybody else says.
BLITZER: John's going to have a lot more for us, coming up at 7:00 p.m. Eastern right here in the SITUATION ROOM.
John, thanks very much.
Let's check in with Jack Cafferty, another week of the "Cafferty File".
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Frank Rich wrote in the "New York Times" yesterday, Wolf, that President Bush is untethered from reality. We'll take look at that column a little bit later in the "Cafferty File". For this hour, lame duck, do nothing, do little, whatever you want to call them, the Republican-led 109th Congress will likely wrap things up this week with little fanfare. That's kind of a theme with this Congress. The incoming class of senators and congressmen will have their work cut out for them when they take over January 4th of next year.
The Republican leadership is skipping out, apparently, on doing any kind of a spending bill, leaving the Democratic leadership with a full plate before they can go after their own agenda of things to do.
But then, skipping out is what the Hastert-Frist Congress has done best. They skipped out on any sort of presidential oversight. They skipped out on border security, Social Security reform, just about every major issue confronting the country. The only things they seem concerned about were Terri Schiavo, flag burning and gay marriage.
So the question is this: what do you think will be the legacy of the 109th Congress? E-mail us at caffertyfile@CNN.com or go to CNN.com/caffertyfile -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Jack, thank you.
Jack Cafferty with the "Cafferty File".
Coming up, is he the only Democrat who can give Hillary Clinton a run for her money? We're going to have the potential political smackdown between the two big name Democratic presidential prospects, Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Also ahead, he says he's not interested in running for president, but does Jeb Bush have another job in mind in 2008? We're looking at the clues being dropped by the president's brother.
And demonstrators marching to the U.S. Supreme Court to take a stand on a racially charged case.
Stay with us. You're in the SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: welcome back. When you're Hillary Rodham Clinton, a few well-timed meetings with other political figures doesn't necessarily go unnoticed. There's a new wave of speculation today about the senator's plans in 2008 and whether a Clinton/Obama primary slugfest could be in the works.
Let's turn to our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley -- Candy.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (on camera): Wolf, Hillary may not be off and running, but she is out and talking about it. Perhaps more interesting than that is why. SEN. BARACK OBAMA, (D) ILLINOIS: Month after month, then year after year, I've watched with a heavy heart as my deepest suspicions about this war's conception have been confirmed and exacerbated in it's disastrous implementation.
CROWLEY (voice-over): For a guy who hasn't decided whether he's running for president, the electric senator from Illinois has been a busy bee. Since the election, a major speech on Iraq in the comfort of his home state, a talk to an AIDS conference in California.
OBAMA: We also have a responsibility to treat the 40 million individuals who are already living with HIV.
CROWLEY: He's made the rounds on television and, oh, he's going to New Hampshire this weekend. While the pundit world went bats over the possibility of an Obama race, Senator Clinton flew below the radar, now her usual flight pattern.
Now after weeks of Obama-fest, the Clinton camp, where little is said or leaked without prior approval, reveals that the senator is talking about running in private talks with New York politicians and others.
Message? Hold your horses, I'm on my way. While two titans jockey for early post position, consider the case of lesser knowns who even in the best of times struggle for equal billing with the marquis names.
GOV. TOM VILSACK (D), IOWA: I announce my candidacy to be the next president of the United States.
CROWLEY: Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack made his presidential ambitions official last week with less fan fare than Obama's September trip to Iowa. Indiana Senator Evan Bayh opened his exploratory committee today with less attention than Hillary Clinton's private talks. Bayh has collected a good bit of money and spent more time in the early presidential states than any other Democrat. He pondered the problem of lesser lights five months ago during a trip to Iowa.
SEN. EVAN BAYH (D), INDIANA: You know, it is a little bit of a David versus Goliath situation? Yes, probably it. But as I recall, David did OK.
CROWLEY: The problem is back then, there was only one Goliath. Now there are two.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: Senator Bayh and Governor Vilsack and others like them have long seen themselves campaigning as not Hillary Clinton, the person who could take advantage of party qualms. The senator is too ladened with baggage and too divisive to win a general election. But if Obama gets into the race, it significantly decreases the amount of running room for others who would be president.
BLITZER: I heard one Democratic insider say the other day a dream ticket for the Democrats could be Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as the vice presidential nominee. I think it's way early to start speculating along those lines, but let's speculate.
CROWLEY: Oh, absolutely. And you know, this is a period where candidates are delusional and voters are in fantasy land, so anything is possible at this point.
And in fact if you look back over, presidential election history, you look at people like Vilsack, you look at people at Bayh, and you think oh, boy they've got a tough row.
Well then you look at people who have made mistakes, just go back to 2004 and Howard Dean. Everyone was ready to put him in the White House. And, boom, he loses in Iowa. So anything can happen. But right now is the time for voters to dream and the parties to dream about what would be their ideal ticket.
BLITZER: From our standpoint, the more the merrier.
CROWLEY: We love it.
BLITZER: All the balls start running. Candy, thanks for that.
CROWLEY: Absolutely.
BLITZER: Meanwhile, a Republican darling of the religious right is taking a first step toward a run for the White House. Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas today announced today he is setting up a presidential exploratory committee for 2008. Brownback says there is a real need in our country to rebuild the family and renew our culture. That's a quote.
Here is where Brownback stands on some key issues. Brownback is a vigorous opponent of abortion and is promising to make the, quote, "issue of life a major focus of his possible presidential bid." He also opposes same-sex marriage. Brownback initially supported the Iraq war, but has recently expressed frustration with Iraq's leaders. He says he wants to gather support from other Middle Eastern countries to support the situation in Iraq.
Brownback does not support a short timetable for withdrawal. Brownback does support immigration reform that would include a way for current illegal immigrants to gain legal status in the United States. He supports personal retirement accounts as part of an effort to reform Social Security. And he backs a full repeal of the estate tax, supports a flatter, fairer tax, in his words, but not an all-out flat tax.
Still ahead, are two Republicans sitting on the sidelines considering a run in '08? We will take a look at the president's brother, Jeb Bush, and another famous Republican mayor.
And to many people, it was once unthinkable, but it's a thought some are now pondering. What would happen if the United States loses in Iraq? What does that mean? Our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield will examine precisely what that could mean. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.
In the brewing battle leading up to 2008, could two well-known politicians be greasing the gears of their party's political machine for a potential White House run? Let's turn to our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider -- Bill?
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Wolf, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is meeting today with Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Now, what could that be about?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (voice-over): Florida Governor Jeb Bush is an ardent conservative. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is pretty liberal.
In a year when Republicans across the country are reeling, that Bush and Bloomberg are thriving. Why? Florida and New York City are doing well economically. Neither Bush nor Bloomberg is tied to Washington or Iraq. They both have the image of competence, something President Bush lost as a result of Katrina and Iraq. Governor Bush earned high marks for his handling of hurricane disasters in Florida.
GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: We've worked on this all night long and, today, there's significant improvement.
SCHNEIDER: Mayor Bloomberg has acted quickly to defuse a racially intense police shooting in New York.
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, MAYOR, NEW YORK CITY: This morning's dialogue, I think, was open and honest and blunt, just the way it should be.
SCHNEIDER: The list of potential Republican contenders for 2008 is long. But neither of them is on it. Bloomberg is too liberal and as for Jeb, this doesn't seem like a good time to talk about a third Bush in the White House.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think he would be a great president, but it's -- he said he's not going to run in 2008.
SCHNEIDER: Both men could have a powerful influence on the 2008 presidential campaign. So far, conservatives have no strong horse for 2008. No candidate could carry the George W. Bush banner.
With Florida a must win state for Republicans, Jeb Bush is a strong contender for the No. 2 spot on any GOP ticket. Bloomberg appeals to Independents, just like John McCain.
But "New York Magazine" quotes Bloomberg as saying about McCain, "Is he a viable candidate? Is it McCain from the straight-talk express or the guy that went to Liberty University?"
The magazine reports that Bloomberg may run for president as an Independent. He is very rich, he's popular, there seems to be a strong market these days for an independent and did we mention, he's very rich?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: Bloomberg and Bush are joining forces to lobby Congress to reauthorize the controversial No Child Left Behind bill with some important changes. You know it can't hurt either of them to pool their influence on an issue where both have a lot of credibility -- Wolf?
BLITZER: And as you remember, a lot of our viewers will remember, in 1992 there was a very rich Independent guy who ran for president, got sort of close, too, Ross Perot. Is Bloomberg another Ross Perot?
SCHNEIDER: Well, they both have a lot of money but there is one big difference. Ross Perot is very of a populist on issues like trade. You wouldn't call Michael Bloomberg a populist. He doesn't appeal to those sentiments. He is much more of a healer and a conciliator, and that's the role he's played in New York City.
BLITZER: Bill Schneider, thank you for that.
Let's turn to our "Strategy Session": the ever-growing crowd of presidential prospects. And, as we just reported, the Republican senator Sam Brownback of Kansas joins the list of those exploring a presidential bid. I guess we can call them the explorers.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: Here to talk about the entire field of prospects, our CNN political analyst, James Carville, a Democratic strategist. Bay Buchanan is president of American Cause.
A lot of exploring going on right now.
JAMES CARVILLE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: This is the -- this is the Magellan period, you know?
BLITZER: Well, what do you -- what do you think of this...
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: ... the -- the...
CARVILLE: The Columbus and Magellan.
BLITZER: ... the Bloomberg/Jeb Bush notion that we just heard Bill Schneider talking about?
CARVILLE: Well, first of all, let's be fair. They're teaming together to say they should extend the No Child Left Behind Act. But Michael Bloomberg, if he runs, he will run as an independent. And he is very, very wealthy.
BLITZER: Used to be a Democrat...
CARVILLE: Right.
BLITZER: ... became a Republican.
CARVILLE: Right. I think he...
BLITZER: And he -- he has got an independent streak.
CARVILLE: Right, very independent streak.
And he -- he has got the money. And that is one of the things it takes to be an independent. You got to be funded. But Bay can talk about that, because she is one of the few people that has actually done it, with her brother.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: But it -- yes, he -- he could be as an independent. He will never run as a Republican. It's completely impossible.
BLITZER: Because...
BAY BUCHANAN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Correct.
BLITZER: ... of his views on the social issues?
BUCHANAN: Exactly.
CARVILLE: Yes.
BUCHANAN: And he has figured that -- that out, where Giuliani hasn't.
Bloomberg as an independent, it's -- it's hard for me to -- to believe that that can happen, because an independent usually is successful because of this kind of uprising of a populist feeling, like Bill Schneider pointed out. And he's not that. He is more of an establishment character. And I don't know why establishments would leave either the Republicans or the Democrats to move to him.
I -- I don't see a groundswell for him as president of the United States as an independent.
BLITZER: All right.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: We know, James, you're very close to Hillary Clinton.
CARVILLE: Right.
BLITZER: And she's -- the last couple days, we have heard her -- her -- her adviser, Howard Wolfson, make these suggestions: You know what? She's getting very, very close to a decision.
CARVILLE: I think she is.
And she was not -- and -- and Senator Clinton, when she running for reelection, said that she was going to consider running for president. She said people could take that into factor when they voted for or against her. Sixty-eight, 69 percent, almost 70 percent took it in, and voted for her anyway.
And I'm not surprised that she is really giving this a lot of thought. She is a very methodical, she's a very thoughtful person. And she's going to talk to a lot of people before she makes up her mind. And this is completely the normal thing here. We shouldn't be surprised by this at all.
BLITZER: Before she ran for Senate in New York State in 2008, she went on a listening tour...
BUCHANAN: She sure did.
CARVILLE: Right.
BLITZER: ... spoke to a lot of people. I remember covering that.
CARVILLE: Right. I was one she spoke to. I thought it was the craziest thing I ever heard.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: But it goes to show you what I know.
(LAUGHTER)
BUCHANAN: But it worked.
CARVILLE: It worked.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: What do you think about her strategy? Is it being changed right now because of this momentum developing for Barack Obama?
BUCHANAN: Well -- well, there's no question, what the momentum tells her is that there's a growing number of Democrats who really are interested in this triple crown. They have got the House. They got the Senate. Let's go for the White House. And, if we want to go for the White House, let's put our best person forward. And there's some hesitancy on many, many Democrats that Hillary is their best person, for lots of different reasons. But the key is...
BLITZER: Because she is polarizing...
(CROSSTALK)
BUCHANAN: She is polarizing. Without question, she doesn't have that amiable, personable kind of appeal that -- that voters like.
(CROSSTALK)
BUCHANAN: And, on top of that, she is not a very good communicator.
BLITZER: James likes her a lot.
(CROSSTALK)
BUCHANAN: Yes, James likes her.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: I don't know. She got almost -- what -- what does she have to do? She got almost 70 percent for reelection in her home state...
BUCHANAN: But she got -- in -- in fairness...
CARVILLE: Excuse me.
I -- I mean, she has got an incredible -- she goes to New York. She has become one of the most popular politicians in the history of New York. Anybody that -- she has one of the most loyal staffs. Anybody that knows her knows she is a warm, outgoing person. She starts beating anybody in a head-to-head race for the Democratic nomination.
But she's very smart, and she knows it's going to be very tough. There's a lot of people out there running. And -- and I can assure of one thing. She knows she is in for a tough battle. But -- but she is a very warm...
BUCHANAN: You know, there's...
CARVILLE: ... outgoing person.
BUCHANAN: There's only one reason that Barack Obama has just kind of gone from nowhere, from two years as a U.S. senator who has done, really, nothing noteworthy, and -- and become this major force against Hillary.
And that is because people see her -- him as somebody who is amiable and personable, a fresh face, some energy there, and who doesn't have the baggage of Hillary Clinton. And that is where his energy -- he is not Hillary, and he can beat Hillary. And that is why there's so much support for him.
BLITZER: He's a talented politician, Barack Obama.
CARVILLE: He's a very -- look, not just talented. He's a very talented politician.
There's also -- you know, he would be the first black serious candidate to run for -- real serious candidate. She would be the first woman who is a real, real serious candidate. Governor Richardson would be the first Hispanic is a real, serious candidate, should he -- he choose to get in.
This is -- this Democratic field is going to be, and might -- by the way, Vice President -- former Vice President Al Gore, in my opinion, very -- could -- could very well get into this race. This is going to be the most talented Democratic field of -- of -- in the history of the party.
BLITZER: Now, Jesse Jackson was a serious candidate, too, you remember, in '84.
CARVILLE: Yes. But I think Obama probably starts out with more of a chance to be -- when you look at him, he has more of a chance to be president.
We had Shirley Chisholm, was a -- was a -- was an African- American who ran for president. But I -- I think the -- the -- Elizabeth Dole ran for president. But I think that both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama probably start from a place, in terms of -- of a perception, that they actually could -- could be elected.
BUCHANAN: First-tier. They're first-tier.
CARVILLE: First-tier, yes.
BLITZER: Is he emerging -- Sam Brownback, the Republican senator from Kansas, as the darling of the Christian right, shall we say?
BUCHANAN: No. He has a real problem. He is open borders. He is completely for open borders, wants no restriction whatsoever on -- on illegals being able to flow into this country.
BLITZER: Well, he takes the Bush position, basically.
BUCHANAN: He is to the -- to the left of Bush. I mean, and -- and this is hurting him.
I have just -- I have been talking to people in Iowa. There's no question, in Iowa and New Hampshire, the conservatives are looking for a true conservative. And, when his name comes forward, they have sat down with him. They have talked to him, some of the Christian coalitions out in Iowa. And because of...
(CROSSTALK)
BUCHANAN: ... on immigration, they will not...
BLITZER: So, McCain, you don't think, is that true conservative, do you?
BUCHANAN: Oh, my gosh. There's nothing -- they...
BLITZER: But, so -- so you're looking for...
BUCHANAN: They're looking for a conservative to beat McCain. BLITZER: You're looking at Mitt Romney? Is that what you're saying?
BUCHANAN: Well, they are looking at Mitt, but there is, without question, some concern amongst conservatives. He has flipped on a couple key social issues. And that is being moved. There is this idea that, "Can we trust him?" throughout Iowa right now. Obviously, I think McCain's people are doing a good job already. This campaign has already started.
BLITZER: What do you think about that Republican battle?
CARVILLE: Whew, man, this is the first and most open Republican race we have had since 1940. And I think it's going to -- I think this is going to be the most -- and I have said it again, and say it now. It's going to be a fascinating, open race.
And you have a -- you have a -- you can probably have 10, 12 people that you look at and, you say, you know, I could see that person being elected president out there, and -- and from the top tier to, I mean, the second tier, or whatever you want to call these folks. I mean, look at Senator Bayh, who is a very, very substantial guy, has got $10.6 million in the bank.
BUCHANAN: Yes, really. Isn't that amazing?
CARVILLE: Yes. I mean...
(CROSSTALK)
BUCHANAN: And he is second-tier.
CARVILLE: Yes.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: A lot of people love him.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: He's a really -- he's a very serious guy.
BUCHANAN: He's an attractive candidate.
CARVILLE: And, you know, when Governor Warner decided not to run, he has become -- he's -- he's got -- people out there are going to listen to him.
I -- I think Governor Vilsack is on energy independence, which is my number-one -- I think this is the biggest winning issue Democrats have. He is pounding that home. It's a -- it's a -- and -- and, even on the Republican side, you got, you know, Giuliani. You got McCain. You got Romney. You got Brownback. There's some interesting people -- and more to come. Apparently, Bay's people are looking...
BUCHANAN: It could be. It could be. We're looking. We're looking.
CARVILLE: They're looking for somebody else.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: They -- we are going to have more fun.
BUCHANAN: There's no question, nobody in -- no Dem -- Republican so far has picked up any traction in New Hampshire or in Iowa. They're...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: Yes, but you don't think Jeb Bush is going to change his mind?
BUCHANAN: No. I -- I think we got to give ourselves a break. I don't think Bush is -- a Bush name is going to be the least bit successful in a Republican primary.
CARVILLE: You know, I...
(CROSSTALK)
BUCHANAN: Maybe four years from now, but not now.
CARVILLE: I say 20 percent chance he does, because I think a lot of people in the party are very, very upset about the disorder. Republicans are very orderly people. And this is going to be an un -- Democrats, we love it. It doesn't matter -- bother us.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: We all for it. But they like order more than we do.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: We have got to leave it there, guys.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: Thanks very much.
CARVILLE: Thank you, Wolf.
BLITZER: And I want to thank Bay Buchanan and James Carville, because they are all part of the best political team on television.
And, remember, for the latest political news at any time, check out the Political Ticker at CNN.com/ticker.
Up next: President Bush says he wants nothing short of victory in Iraq. But what if the U.S. mission falls short? Our Jeff Greenfield considering what a loss in Iraq might mean.
And, with only days left in the 109th Congress, what will be its legacy? That's Jack's question. He's heading back to THE SITUATION ROOM.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: There she is, our Carol Costello. She is standing by in New York with a closer look at some other stories making news.
Welcome back, Carol.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Wolf.
Hello to all of you.
Big protests outside of the Supreme Court today -- the justices are looking at integration rules in public schools -- at issue, whether programs in Seattle and Louisville, Kyra, are acceptable moves towards student diversity, or if they involve illegal racial quotas. The Bush administration has taken the side of the parents who are suing the school districts. Most of those who protested today are affirmative-action advocates.
A verdict today in the deadliest attempt ever to smuggle illegal immigrants into the United States. A federal jury in Texas has convicted truck driver Tyrone Williams on 58 counts of importing -- of transporting illegal immigrants over the Texas border. Nineteen of the more than 70 people stuffed into his sweltering tractor-trailer died. On Wednesday, jurors will begin deciding if Williams will receive life in prison or the death penalty.
Firefighters in Ventura County, California, are battling a wildfire that has more than doubled in size in just one day -- windy weather making their job very difficult. The fire started early yesterday morning. It has now burned 10,000 acres and destroyed five homes. Another 75 homes are threatened. The fired is only 35 percent contained. Full containment is expected by tomorrow night.
Nearly 300,000 customers in Missouri and Illinois still without power, after Thursday night's ice storm. And officials say it will be several more days before power will be fully restored. The storm and the frigid temperatures are being blamed for 19 deaths, four of them yesterday. National Guardsmen have been going door to door just to make sure that people are safe.
That's a look at the headlines right now -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Cold out there, very cold.
COSTELLO: Oh.
BLITZER: I guess it's going to be a tough winter for a lot of people.
Thanks, Carol, for that.
Coming up; President Bush says he's not satisfied with the situation in Iraq. But what if the war ends up on the losing end of history? Jeff Greenfield considering the price of defeat.
And, in our next hour, the New York governor, George Pataki, is he ready to take the 2008 presidential plunge? I'm going to ask him about his prospects, and if he has a shot against some of the more conservative Republicans already out there.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: More now on our top story: the situation in Iraq and the upcoming report from the Iraq Study Group, which will be released on Wednesday.
When it comes to the war in Iraq, our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, is contemplating the L-word: losing -- Jeff.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Wolf, even before we know what the Iraq Study Group will recommend, a pessimistic notion seems to be gathering strength, the idea that there is no good course to pursue, that the goal should be to make the best of a bad situation. So, could the U.S. lose in Iraq? And what would a loss mean?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GREENFIELD (voice-over): Think of what happened when the French left Indochina, after a military debacle in 1954. More than a communist triumph in the north, it helped marked the end of France as a legislate international power. The same was true of Britain after it abandoned its efforts to hold on to its African colonies half-a- century ago.
And some argue that the Soviet loss of Afghanistan in the 1980s marked the beginning of the end for that nation. But what about what happened in Vietnam in 1975, after the U.S. pulled out and the communist north Congress conquered the south, or when the shah of Iran, a longtime U.S. ally, lost power to the Ayatollah Khomeini, and when U.S. hostages were held in Iran for more than a year, without any effective response?
In one view, such setbacks encouraged Americans' adversaries to be more bold in their assaults. But, over time, another picture emerges. Less than 20 years after the fall of Vietnam, the Soviet Union literally ceased to exist. More than half-a-century after China became communist, the U.S. is, economically, at least, a partner. And America's biggest companies see China not as a threat, but as a huge market. And Vietnam, it embraces an American president and American investments.
As for Iraq, the turmoil there almost surely means that the ambitious goals of the invasion, a stable, functioning democracy, are beyond reach. But, if the United States chooses to engage, and chooses, as well, to talk with nations in the region, like Iran and Syria, that course will likely trigger a profound debate, perhaps even reaching into the next presidential campaign.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GREENFIELD: And what would that debate be about? More than anything else, one key question. Would disengagement tell the world that the United States has become weaker or wiser? -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Jeff, thank you -- Jeff Greenfield reporting.
Up next: do-nothing or done something? Jack Cafferty is thinking about the legacy of the outgoing Republican-led Congress.
Also, the investigation into the poisoning of a former Russian spy keeps widening. We will have the radioactive details.
Stay with us. We will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Let's check back with Jack in New York -- Jack.
CAFFERTY: Wolf, the question this hour is, what will be the legacy of the outgoing 109th Congress? Nobody wrote and said, they did a great job, by the way.
Christopher writes this: "The legacy of this Congress, an unwanted Medicare entitlement that dwarfs Social Security, a bridge to nowhere, and billions in hidden war debt for Iraq."
Bob in Montana writes: "The 109th Congress of the Bush administration will be best remembered for failing to deal effectively with this nation's most pressing problem, out dependence on corrupt, hostile, and unstable governments for so much of our energy needs."
LaVon in Bedford, Texas: "The 109th Congress will be known as the Congress that gave preferential treatment to illegal aliens over American citizens."
Hugh in British Columbia: "Are you kidding? The legacy of the Congress is the gutting of the Constitution and your new police state."
Robert in Florida: "This Congress will go down as one of the most corrupt, incompetent, anti-American, partisan, divisive, and totally useless ever, a schoolyard pack of bullies bowing to their divisive, stupid bully in chief."
And Stephen in New York: "The 109th Congress will be remembered as the Congress that allowed George Bush to treat the Constitution as T.P."
You can look that up -- Wolf.
BLITZER: So, you're saying that, of all the e-mail you got, no one said...
CAFFERTY: That's correct.
BLITZER: ... this 109th Congress did...
CAFFERTY: No one.
BLITZER: ... a fabulous job?
CAFFERTY: No one, not one. I didn't read them all, because there are simply too many for my old eyes to get through. But I looked at probably 300 of them. No one said this Congress did anything worthwhile -- no one.
BLITZER: All right, Jack, thanks very much. See you in a few moments.
CAFFERTY: You're welcome, Wolf.
BLITZER: Let's stay in New York once again with Carol -- Carol.
COSTELLO: It is nasty, isn't it?
(LAUGHTER)
COSTELLO: Wow.
Hello, Wolf.
Hello to you.
A sit-in protest in Beirut organized by the militant Hezbollah in its fourth day now -- and Arab and European diplomatic efforts to help ease Lebanon's political tensions are intensifying. The standoff between the Lebanese prime minister's government and the opposition, led by Hezbollah, turned violent yesterday. A Shiite man was shot and killed. And, today, soldiers police continued to surround government headquarters in a protective cordon.
New developments in the investigation into the fatal poisoning of former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko -- British investigators are checking two more locations for possible radiation contamination. They include the Parkes Hotel in London's Chelsea neighborhood, and an address in central London. The former KGB spy died on November 23. High doses of polonium 210 were found in his body. And pathologists are trying to determine how the poison was ingested. They still don't know.
Health officials in central New Jersey have now confirmed 25 cases of E. coli. They say more possible cases are under investigation. The virus was -- the virus was reported on Wednesday, with outbreaks in three counties. This afternoon, officials from the New Jersey Health Department announced they have linked the E. coli outbreak to the Taco Bell franchises there.
That's a look at the headlines right now -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Thank you, Carol. We will get back to you shortly, as well.
Still to come: startling charges from a controversial terror suspect. We're tracking Jose Padilla's case online.
And a member of the Kennedy political dynasty has a deal with the man who called President Bush the devil. We will take a closer look at the uproar over the Hugo Chavez-Joe Kennedy connection. That's coming up in our next hour, right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Let's take a closer look at some of the "Hot Shots" coming in from our friends at the Associated Press, pictures likely to be in your hometown newspapers tomorrow.
In Canada, a soldier hugs a loved one before departing on a nine- month mission in Afghanistan.
In Caracas, Venezuela, supporters of President Hugo Chavez celebrate his reelection.
In Greensboro, North Carolina, workers at a warehouse assembly line break into a dance routine. It's part of a program to try to keep employees healthy.
And, in India, a veterinarian tends to a one-and-a-half-year-old elephant named Rinky (ph), who was hit by a truck, and suffered a serious spinal injury -- some of this hour's "Hot Shots," pictures often worth 1,000 words.
Lawyers for Jose Padilla claim, in a new court filing, he was tortured, and the terror charges should be dismissed. In August, a federal judge dismissed a terror count against Padilla, the U.S. citizen once identified as a dirty-bomb suspect, and detained as an enemy combatant. Padilla is still charged in a Florida federal indictment with supporting terrorism.
Our Internet reporter, Jacki Schechner, has some more -- Jacki.
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, that's right.
Jose Padilla -- Padilla's attorneys say that he was tortured in the three-and-a-half years that he was in military detention as an enemy combatant. And these images were attached to the latest legal filing. Padilla is shown chained at the hand and foot, and let out of this cell by three guards dressed in camouflage and riot gear. There's also a photo showing him in headphones and blacked-out goggles.
Now, in the filing, they say that he was damaged mentally and physically, that he was exposed, among other things, to extreme heat and cold, harsh lights, and sleep deprivation. "The New York Times" says these images came from a video that was taken while Padilla was being led out of his cell for dental work.
Now, the Department of Justice has asked the federal court to deny Padilla's torture motion. And the Pentagon strongly denies the allegations, saying they are without support and lack a shred of record evidence. They say that he was treated humanely; the images are just security measures that are used to transport detainees. The trial is set for early next year.
You can go to CNN.com/situationroomblog. We have posted the images and the motions for you there -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Jacki, thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.voxant.com
