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The Situation Room

Iran Threatens U.S. Forces in Hormuz; Rampant Conspiracy Theories Spread After WHCD Shooting; Making Money Off the War. Aired 10:30-11a ET

Aired May 04, 2026 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:30:00]

REP. MARLIN STUTZMAN (R-IN), FINANCIAL SERVICES COMMITTEE AND BUDGET COMMITTEE: -- say finish the job. Iran has been a problem for us for far too long. Younger people, you know, I can see it in their body language, or they shake their heads, they don't like it, and, you know, understand that.

But in the long run, we have to finish the job. The ayatollah, the regime that has been in control in Iran for far too long has just been a thorn in the side of so many of us, whether you're in the Middle East, they're creating instability through their proxies with Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis. I think by shutting down the strait, you're shutting off the cash that the IRGC uses for their operations.

And so, by taking almost $8 billion in cash away from them in sales of oil and gas, that's really putting a hurting on them. And I think they're also very disrupted internally, and there's a power struggle going on. So, we've got to hold on. While it may affect the elections in November, I think it's the right thing to do now. So, that way we have peace and stability long-term.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: A vast majority, 61 percent of Americans say it was a mistake for the U.S. to use military force against Iran. That includes 71 percent of a key voting bloc, independents. How do you convince those Americans to support the GOP coming up in November?

STUTZMAN: Well, I think, well, time will tell. And I know we want it to speed up faster. President Trump has made some big moves this past week by sending a letter to Congress saying that the military actions are over with. Now, we're really entering into this phase of negotiations. While we saw gas prices spike over the last week, I think as we see stability there and we're now escorting ships through the strait, if we can get those ships out, that'll help the global supply increase again.

And also, you know, as Venezuela comes more online and other places, that's going to lessen the pressure of global supply. But I think as soon as we can get the strait solidified and secured by a global coalition, that's what's really going to have the biggest impact. And by the time we get into June, July, hopefully we'll see this behind us for the most part.

BLITZER: I want you, Congressman, and our viewers in the United States and around the world to watch and listen to what President Trump recently said about people, Americans who do not believe the U.S. is winning the Iran War. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: We get the radical left to say we're not winning. We're not winning. They don't have any military left. It's unbelievable. It's actually -- I believe it's treasonous. OK. You want to know the truth. It's treasonous.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Do you think it is treasonous? That's a -- treason carries the death penalty if convicted. Do you think it's treasonous for Americans to simply disagree with the president on whether or not the country is winning in this conflict?

STUTZMAN: I don't know that I would go that far. I think that we -- you know, we as a country always have differences of opinion when it comes to wars. And of course, I understand why some people oppose this. But I think that we have to stand strong and we have to stay in there and fight the fight. You know, this is going to be good for the Middle East. It's going to be good for Europe. We can't let a crazy regime in Iran have a nuclear weapon. And that's what President Trump is fighting.

BLITZER: Republican Congressman Marlin Stutzman of Indiana, as usual, thank you very much for joining us.

STUTZMAN: Thank you, Wolf. Great to be with you.

BLITZER: Pamela.

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Wolf, coming up here in the Situation Room, massive bets placed just ahead of key developments in the war with Iran, making billions of dollars. Is it coincidence or something more concerning? We have new reporting on the troubling pattern just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:35:00]

BROWN: Happening now, prosecutors in the defense for Cole Tomas Allen, the suspect in the White House Correspondents Center shooting incident, are preparing for another hearing. The federal judge in this case called for a hearing with jail staff over concerns about how Allen was held in solitary confinement. Allen is charged with attempting to assassinate the president. But even as more facts about last weekend's shooting incident come out, rampant conspiracy theories are spreading online.

Joining us now to discuss is CNN Senior Correspondent Donie O'Sullivan and CNN Senior Law Enforcement Analyst Andrew McCabe. He is the former deputy director of the FBI. Donie, I want to start with you. You've done a deep dive into some of these conspiracy theories. In this case, what are they claiming and where are they coming from?

DONIE O'SULLIVAN, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Pam. Yes, I mean, this is a pretty modern phenomenon that we see today when it comes to breaking news situations, major breaking news stories. And of course, we are all online. We are all used to getting information and making connection online instantly.

So, what we see now with any major breaking news story, like what happened last weekend at the White House Correspondents Dinner, is you have people who immediately try to fill that information void online. So, as law enforcement, as journalists try to establish the actual facts, what has just happened? You have countless people online, somewhat some very big followers, pushing their theories. Of course, everything from this was staged to something, you know, far more elaborate. It sort of goes on.

I want to show you one post from Threads that was sent by outgoing Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. She -- this is just sort of typical of the type of content we're seeing online. Has there ever been a president to have this many close attempts on their life? Maybe it's lax gun laws, maybe it's a lack of mental health funding, or maybe it's fake. Who knows? So, that's the sort of thing that's being pushed out there that's putting doubt in people's mind.

[10:40:00]

I will note, however, that although there are influencers, although there are people with some very big followings pushing this, apart from the congresswoman, I haven't seen other influential elected officials on the Democratic side pushing this.

BROWN: Yes. And of course, our own Wolf Blitzer was there as a key eyewitness as this gunman was firing bullets. We want to make sure we mention that as well.

Andy, given your background, what can law enforcement do in this environment to gain public trust in these investigations when there's just this information wasteland out there with these conspiracy theories on all these breaking news stories like what happened at the Correspondents' Dinner?

ANDREW MCCABE, CNN SENIOR LAW ENFORCEMENT ANALYST AND FORMER DEPUTY DIRECTOR, FBI: You know, Pam, it's probably an unsatisfying answer to many people, but really the only thing that law enforcement can do is their job. Their job is to peel away what we all see and uncover the facts behind an alleged crime. And it's particularly important in a situation like this where you have an actual offender who's in custody who has already been charged and who might go to trial.

So, law enforcement and prosecutors are not in a position to be contributing to this online discussion. In fact, the more that they take their focus off the prosecution and their responsibility to do that fairly and objectively, the more danger they run into in polluting their case. So, they should be focused on conducting a solid fact-based investigation and being prepared to expose those facts in a court of law at the appropriate time. And people should have the common sense to listen to what they say in that context and take it very seriously.

BROWN: And, Donie, I want to play just a bit more of what we've seen online recently. You put up that post by Jasmine Crockett. I want to watch this and then talk on the other side of it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Just because Trump and his filth have lied to you about everything, every day for 11 years, that's no reason for you to get cynical and think that was staged.

TIM DILLON, COMEDIAN: Just admit you staged it in Butler.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: I mean, a lot of people, a lot of people believe this, Donie. We're hearing more conspiracy theories emerge about past attempts on President Trump's life, even before the White House Correspondents' Dinner. What's going on here? What's driving this?

O'SULLIVAN: Yes. And look, I think this also highlights that conspiracy theories are not something that is exclusive to the right wing or to Republican politics. Look, Tim Dillon, you saw there, the comedian, the last clip we played, he was a prominent Trump supporter during the 2024 election. What we have seen is the sort of confluence of factors over the past few months, especially with the war in Iran, where you have very prominent former Trump supporters now speaking out against the president.

And as part of that, they are also questioning what happened in Butler. And then, of course, the shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner happened and also questioning that. And somebody who's been very vocal about this is former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. She tweeted connecting these two things. She said, I want to know why the Trump administration released Cole Allen's manifesto immediately, but they still keep a tight lid on Thomas Crooks.

We should just point out, of course, that the DOJ's under both Presidents Biden and Trump found that Crooks acted alone, that he wasn't part of a grander conspiracy. And they also released information about Crooks, including his search history.

BROWN: All right. Donie O'Sullivan, Andrew McCabe, thank you so much. Wolf.

BLITZER: And coming up, three people are dead after a very rare virus found on rodents spreads on a cruise ship. Now, the passengers, they are stranded at sea. We're going to hear from one of them. That's coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [10:45:00]

BROWN: Well, there are growing concerns that crucial U.S. national security decisions, including announcements on the war with Iran, are the subject of gambling on so-called prediction markets. There's this new report out from the Washington Post intelligence that details massive bets that coincided with critical announcements on the Iran War. CNN asked the White House about a memo that warned employees on the guidelines for using prediction markets, citing press reports about wagers being placed.

A White House spokesman replied in a statement saying, quote, "All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use or non-public information for financial benefit. However, any implication that administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting."

I want to bring in Josh Rogin, lead global security analyst for Washington Post intelligence. Josh, you just wrote this piece and you really looked at trades in oil futures and prediction markets right before we got these big announcements on the Iran War. What did you find?

JOSH ROGIN, LEAD GLOBAL SECURITY ANALYST, WASHINGTON POST INTELLIGENCE: Right. Well, Pamela, there are two sets of alleged insider trading patterns here. One is, as you said, in the prediction markets, Polymarket, Kalshi, where just before the raid on Venezuela, just before the attacks on Iran, people made hundreds of thousands of dollars by correctly predicting those events. And a couple of those people have been charged, including one U.S. Army sergeant who made $400,000 by betting on the Maduro raid.

Much larger in the futures markets, billions of dollars are being put at stake betting on oil futures 15 minutes before President Trump will tweet something about a ceasefire or a pause in the attacks on Iran that will send oil markets way, way down. So, that's an order of magnitude larger. And that means hundreds of millions of dollars are being moved within tiny windows to predict events that happen minutes later. And it's very hard to see how that could be a coincidence.

[10:50:00]

Now, that's the subject of congressional investigation and federal investigations. We don't know who's doing it, but whoever did it is either the luckiest person on earth four times in a row or they have some inside information, which means that those are insider trading actions that would be illegal.

BROWN: Yes. And it's interesting because of the stock market, usually on some of these trades, you've had a lot of money, right, to be invested in. But then there's these prediction markets, right? So, walk us through how these prediction markets work and how investigators can determine who's behind some of these coincidentally or strategically timed bets. ROGIN: Sure. Well, it's kind of the wild west in the sense that if you're betting on prediction markets, especially the ones that aren't based inside the United States, it's very hard to know who are the people doing the bets and what are the methods for holding them accountable. If you're betting on American markets, then there's more ability for federal law enforcement to pursue those cases.

But in essence, those cases aren't proceeding for a couple of reasons. The regulations are unclear. The enforcement teams at the SEC and the CFTC, which monitor these things and the DOJ public integrity section have been greatly reduced in size and investigation since the Trump administration returned to office. And that's why Congress are calling for more legislative fixes to make it illegal for federal workers who have inside information to bet on these markets, executive branch officials, members of Congress, their staffers, their families.

There's a large number of people who have inside information in Washington and beyond who could not only make money off those markets, but also influence national security decisions at the same time and even wag the dog. So, the potential for a national security catastrophe in that kind of vacuum is really, really significant. And Congress is on the case, federal agencies are looking into it, but it's just too new and too unknown for anyone to say that anyone's really on top of it at this point.

BROWN: Yes. And I think you make a clear case for the national security implications as well. It's not just people potentially enriching themselves on this --

ROGIN: Of course, because when the markets go up and then the enemies can see that, then they know the attack is coming. So, it could really put troops in harm's way.

BROWN: Yes. I think that's an important note for sure. Just quickly tell us a little bit more about what lawmakers are doing and sort of the reaction to these markets and trades.

ROGIN: Sure. So, to its credit, the White House sent out a letter to its staffers that they're not allowed to bet on inside information in these markets. They shouldn't be allowed anyway, but anyway, they reinforced that in Congress. There are a number of laws to make it illegal for anyone who has inside information to bet on these markets to increase the enforcement powers, to increase the visibility and transparency, and essentially to legislate regulation on these markets.

And now, that's being fought in a sense by the Trump administration, which is defending these markets in a number of different venues. And it's probably not a coincidence that senior Trump family members are on the advisory boards of Polymarket and Kalshi, and that's not an accusation. It's just a fact.

So, when you look at that oversight picture, you have to understand that there's a lot of people in Congress who want to legislate on this. It's probably not going to happen until after the midterms. And until that time, we kind of have a situation where these markets are policing themselves and it's not going very well.

BROWN: Well, Josh Rogin, you just laid it all out very well. Thank you so much for bringing us your reporting. And an important note on this story, CNN has a partnership with the prediction market platform, Kalshi, and uses its data to cover major events. But editorial employees are prohibited from participating in prediction markets. Wolf.

BLITZER: All right. Pamela, coming up, a shutdown, the abrupt collapse of Spirit Airlines sending shockwaves through the industry. What this means for travelers hitting the skies soon.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:55:00]

BLITZER: A dramatic night in the NBA playoffs. The Pistons making a major comeback to win their first playoff series in nearly 20 years.

BROWN: All right. Wolf, keep going. I don't have a script. Go ahead.

BLITZER: CNN's Coy Wire is joining us right now. Coy, update our viewers what a comeback it was.

COY WIRE, CNN SPORTS ANCHOR: Absolutely. Overcoming a3 to 1 deficit. And this was incredible. Motor City rolling. Cade Cunningham, cool as the center seat of a cucumber. 32 points, 12 assists. Tobias Harris added 30 in a 116-94 win. Last time Detroit won a playoff series was 2008, when people were lining up for the first iPhone 3G. Just the 15th team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 deficit. The Pistons advance now to face Cleveland. And Cunningham, he is the first Pistons player to score 20 with 10 assists in a game since Isaiah Thomas. And there the -- he was, the legend in the stand and he approves.

Also, over the weekend, Cherie DeVaux became the first female trainer ever to win the Kentucky Derby. And her horse, Golden Tempo, ran a race like a movie script. We're talking 24 to one odds before the race, all the way from last to first, making a huge kick down the stretch. Jose Ortiz, the jockey, gets his first ever Derby win, his first ever triple crown he completes. A comeback in a moment that'll ring through history. Cherie DeVaux, first female trainer to win in the 152 years of the Derby.

It was an incredible scene as always. The fashion was flashing. Celebrities and stars were all out, Wolf. They were all dressed up like you on a Buffalo Bills game day. From what I'm told.

BLITZER: Cherie DeVaux, congratulations to her. And, Pamela, I got to say --

[11:00:00]