Return to Transcripts main page

The Situation Room

Israel Set to Vote; Millions Cast Early Ballot in Midterm Elections. Aired 10:30a-11a ET

Aired October 26, 2026 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:30:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:30:27]

PAMELA BROWN, CNN HOST: Happening now: A U.S. Marine has now been indicted on suspicion of murdering and robbing a 39-year-old woman in Okinawa this month. Prosecutors have not disclosed whether 20-year-old Lance Corporal Devin Jacob Ballard has admitted or denied the charges.

Ballard was arrested back on October 4. A spokesperson with the Marines says the U.S. military recognizes -- quote -- "the seriousness of the charges and will continue to cooperate fully with Japanese authorities in their ongoing investigation as the legal process moves forward."

And, in New Mexico, drone footage captures the extent of the catastrophic flooding that hit the northern part of the state this weekend. While floodwaters are receding, homes remain evacuated in the hardest-hit areas. Officials say they performed 20 rescues, some involving multiple people, between Friday and Saturday night.

And, in Brazil, a historic reelection.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

(SINGING)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Brazil's current President Lula defeated rival Flavio Bolsonaro, securing more than 51 percent of votes. Bolsonaro said he would not accept the results and his team would challenge the result after the country's Supreme Court ruled last-minute to extend voting by two hours.

The election outcome will have repercussions beyond Brazil, keeping Latin America's largest country on a more independent foreign policy path.

And happening now: We are just eight days out from the midterm elections. And CNN's Omar Jimenez is kicking off a road trip through the Rust Belt, stopping in some of the most consequential swing states and districts, including Philadelphia, Gettysburg, Columbus, Toledo, and parts of Michigan.

He's talking to candidates, even trying local foods, and giving us a real sense of life in the lead-up to the election.

Omar is live for us in Philadelphia this morning.

So, Omar, how's the road trip so far? Have you been rejected by anyone yet?

(LAUGHTER)

OMAR JIMENEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I have been rejected by a few people already on stream, just walking up to people for interviews, and you know how that goes.

But, obviously, people who don't do this job only see the people that say yes to interviews, not all the people that say no. So, we're starting this road trip in Pennsylvania and specifically in Philadelphia. There's the Liberty Bell. We just wanted to pop in and see it. I had never seen it before, obviously, a super important part of history.

And this is just one aspect of what we're trying to show in some of these places. It's not just going to be tourism, but also a lot of iconic artifacts, things like this make up what some of these communities are. We're also going to be talking to voters about what issues matter to them most through some really important battleground districts here in Pennsylvania before driving over through Ohio and then ending the week in Michigan, so, plenty to talk about there.

But, even more importantly, it's going to be the wide range of people that we talk to. We're also heading out to farms, talking to soybean farmers about how they're dealing with tariffs and changes and in trade demand, also a farm that backs up into a data center. We're going to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

We're crossing into Canada at one point to talk about how tariffs are affecting some of the manufacturing industry there once we're up in Michigan. So the hope is that, yes, you, the audience, gets a better understanding of what issues actually matter most.

But we also just want to show you some of the behind-the-scenes of what it takes to actually bring you some of this info, because it's not always easy, Pam. You know that.

BROWN: It's not. A lot of rejection, a lot of rejection along the way, like you said.

JIMENEZ: And fun. And fun. Fun.

BROWN: And fun. And fun. People usually don't get to see that, and you are bringing us into your experience.

JIMENEZ: Yes.

BROWN: I know you're just at the beginning of your journey here, but, so far, what have you been hearing from voters in terms of what's on their mind? I know tariffs and gas prices are obviously a big issue there.

JIMENEZ: Yes, I mean, look, the economy has what's been on the minds of really everyone. You go to all these battleground states, and that's top of mind. We have seen diesel prices spiking over these past few months in particular. We have seen inflation that has been pretty steady, hasn't quite gone away.

And what that's translated to, especially as wage growth hasn't always kept up, is just people struggling to find ways forward, particularly over this past year. And then, on top of that, some of these swing districts were going to, Pennsylvania District 1 and District 7, those are two of some of the most competitive races in the country, some of which actually flipped over the past election cycle.

And so looking at these past two years, it might actually be a referendum on the dissatisfaction in some cases with the Republican Party. So we're trying to basically get as much info on the ground as we can to match up with some of what we have actually seen to be polled as the highest data, as the most important issues.

[10:35:12]

And that's why we're trying to hit a range of these locations. This one, OK, might not be the biggest voter-rich, because these are tourists coming from all over the world, but we're going next up to the suburbs of Philadelphia, which is much -- one of those battleground districts.

And we are hoping to hear how close of a margin it is likely going to be in this coming election, which could help determine, of course, the balance of power in Congress overall.

BROWN: All right, so, like, we get to watch you pick out your food and what you're going to eat and all that too along the way?

JIMENEZ: Yes.

BROWN: This isn't just about the voters, right, Omar?

(LAUGHTER)

JIMENEZ: No, not at all. I mean, look, politics isn't what makes all these places unique. People live in these places and have fun. They come see things like the Liberty Bell. They go to their favorite restaurants.

We are just in Allentown, Pennsylvania, which is where we're going a little bit later. We're meeting someone at a Dominican restaurant there just to talk about the Latino population, which I didn't even know they had such a significant Latino population.

BROWN: Yes. JIMENEZ: So, hopefully, a little bit of fun, a little bit of

learning, and at some point along the way, we hope you have a good time watching.

But this is the beginning, and we're starting in large part where the country began, Liberty Bell, Independence Hall right across the street.

BROWN: That's a beautiful way to end your live shot.

Omar Jimenez, thank you so much.

Joining us here in THE SITUATION ROOM, CNN political commentator and Republican strategist Shermichael Singleton and former communications director for Vice President Harris Ashley Etienne.

So both parties are pulling out all the stops to get voters to the polls.

SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Oh, yes.

BROWN: I mean, this is what you would expect, right, in this sort of last week before the election. President Trump is on this nonstop daily campaign blitz while Democrats have deployed their closer in chief, former President Barack Obama.

They laid out vastly different messages for voters in Michigan this weekend. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm here to keep a jihadist Muslim Brotherhood member from becoming a United States senator.

(CHEERING)

TRUMP: And that's the fact. We're not going to let that happen. If Abdul and the Democrats win, they will open the floodgates and invite hordes of jihadists to our shores, creating a nightmare of violence and terror until you cannot even have a Christmas.

BARACK OBAMA, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Does anybody really think this guy is spending all that much time thinking deeply on these issues?

(LAUGHTER)

OBAMA: I don't know if you have noticed, but he is very focused on home renovation. He should be on HDTV.

What's up with the gold? He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory. Remember. Roll back the tape. We're going to drain the swamp? The only thing they drained is the Reflecting Pool.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: All right, so you heard those closing messages there.

Shermichael, we heard President Trump escalating those direct, highly personal attacks against Abdul El-Sayed's faith and really ad hominem attacks against him. Is that the message that's going to fire up the Republican base there and drive them to the polls?

SINGLETON: I mean, the Republican base and Trump base, I think there might be a slight difference, right? Now, and I think there's a slight difference, because his base are typically nontraditional voters that the party didn't have prior to Trump.

Now, the question is, can the president, at least the hypothesis, can you turn out that base by 1 or 2 percentage points in a place like Texas where we're running competitive, in a place like Michigan or Ohio or even Kansas, actually, where the Democrats are even running a competitive candidate?

If he can, then that numerically makes a difference. We will see if he's ultimately correct with his thesis. In the past, we have seen, when the president isn't on the ballot, those voters don't turn out. Will they turn out this cycle? We will see. Jury's still out on that.

BROWN: He's really trying to appeal to fear of some sort here with...

SINGLETON: Can be a motivating factor.

(CROSSTALK)

ASHLEY ETIENNE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I mean, literally, you're taking the words right out of my mouth.

It is an appeal to not just fear, but to hatred. It's -- and so, for me, I think it's not only shameful, it's scary, but it's an embarrassment to our nation. And the reason why he's running on fear and hatred, stoking it, is because he has no agenda that he can run on.

There is nothing positive to say about his -- what he's been able to produce in these last two years for the American people. In fact, he got to the podium and said he could care less about gas prices because he himself is being enriched by it all.

So this is -- what we're seeing right now is a continual betrayal of American voters on the part of the president and an appeal to fear and hatred, stoking it to turn out the low-propensity voters. And it's shamefulness and it's scary and it's an embarrassment to the nation.

SINGLETON: I would just say I hear Ashley's point. The only rebuttal I would add is, despite all of the things that she's pointed out -- some of those things are accurate. Gas prices are high. We cannot deny that. Cost of living is high. These are all legitimate facts.

Yet Democrats should be far ahead compared to where they are. They are running competitively. But if this was 2018 or 2006, you would be looking at 50, 60 seats. You would be looking at dominating us in the Senate. And yet, despite those things, that's not the case at all.

[10:40:01]

ETIENNE: Well, the map won't allow it, right? So there's not that many seats that are in play, right?

SINGLETON: Sure. Sure.

ETIENNE: So, I think, at the end of the day, we're going to get as high as 20 to 30 seats...

SINGLETON: I agree with that.

ETIENNE: ... which is the high water mark.

But you do make an excellent point, which is that the Democratic Party still has some challenges that it needs to confront and it needs to face.

SINGLETON: Yes.

ETIENNE: And throwing Barack Obama -- as much as I love him, my former boss.

BROWN: Yes.

ETIENNE: He's fantastic. He's not the solution to the larger problem.

BROWN: Yes, how much does that star power translate to actual votes? Because we saw him campaign in 2024, right? And we saw the result.

SINGLETON: Yes.

BROWN: Well, I mean, he's in Michigan for a reason, because Detroit is not doing well in terms of early vote turnout.

That's primarily because -- I think is on the backs of black voters. So he's there to sort of help turn out black voters. There's been -- I think Haley Stevens recently said that Republicans were doing a more aggressive job of targeting black voters...

SINGLETON: Mike Rogers, yes.

ETIENNE: ... in the state of Michigan than Democrats were.

So our challenge as a party is, we always throw Barack Obama at it as a solution, and he's actually not -- he doesn't have the capability that Donald Trump has, which is to turn out low-propensity voters. And that's how you win these states, from Texas to Michigan to Mississippi, is low-propensity black voters.

And I don't think that Obama, as much as we love him, has the ability to turn out those voters. But the other thing that is true in the 20 years I have been doing this work is that the admiration that voters have for him is not transferable to any other candidate.

SINGLETON: Yes. Yes.

ETIENNE: Candidates have to build their own trust with voters.

BROWN: Right. You mentioned Texas. Let's pivot to there, because that Senate race is exceptionally tight.

And there is a real fear among Republicans about plummeting Latino support there. Our John King caught up with a local Hispanic pastor to hear what he's telling his congregation. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PASTOR STEVE MARTINEZ, TEXAS VOTER: There's one guy. He just was in line. He was like: Man, I'm just struggling. The economy is hard. It's like, what do I do?"

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Plus a lot of anger at ICE enforcement, even Trump supporter Martinez says is too aggressive, and it's s reaching way beyond the bad guys.

MARTINEZ: A lot of people's decisions are going to be now because OF the big -- ICE has been just hard on a lot of families.

KING: And if their decisions made by that, then they're voting for Democrats? They're voting against Trump, right?

MARTINEZ: Yes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So...

ETIENNE: I don't know if they're voting for Democrats or not. But it's...

(CROSSTALK)

ETIENNE: I thought that was interesting. Sorry.

BROWN: Well, no, your reaction's good.

And it does raise the question of whether it's too late for Republicans to win back those Latino voters.

SINGLETON: Yes, I wonder what difference this group will ultimately make. They have gone back and forth of both parties. Right now, you have seen about 3.9 million Texans have voted thus far, higher than 2022. In 2022, early voting among Republicans was about 80,000. This time around, it's now around 69,000 for Democrats.

As of a couple of days ago, I was talking to some folks in Texas, political strategists on the Republican side, and they're saying it's almost even now with Republicans to Democrats.

ETIENNE: You mean in terms of early vote turnout? SINGLETON: So this is -- in terms of early voting, yes. So this is going to be a very, very tight race. Now, the question is -- and we have talked about this with Michigan -- it goes back to black voters.

Texas has the largest percent of eligible black voters in the country who can vote. Can Talarico turn those voters out? Has he done enough to communicate the messaging to draw a contrast from himself and Ken Paxton and maybe even drawing a connection to the president?

I'm not convinced that he actually has, based on some of the things I'm hearing in Texas. Ashley, you just were there recently. You tell me if I'm wrong. And despite Ken Paxton's flaws -- there are many. A lot of Republicans are still saying they're going to vote straight ticket Republican.

I don't think we're going to see what we saw in Texas -- or in Georgia, rather, where you saw Republicans vote for Brian Kemp and then they voted for Warnock, instead of Herschel Walker. Texas doesn't have a history of Republicans splitting the ticket that way.

So I'm assuming, if Abbott wins, I think Paxton wins as well.

ETIENNE: Well, I mean, listen, we're seeing record turnout among Latino voters in the state of Texas.

SINGLETON: Yes.

ETIENNE: Some are saying it's as high as presidential levels, and many of those voters are new voters, which is very encouraging to Democrats, primarily because it's what the gentleman just said. It's that level of betrayal.

They feel betrayed by the president, who told them that he wasn't going to -- who told them he was going to have immigration enforcement that was going to get rid of the bad guys. But now they're seeing their family members being deported. You have ICE raids that are happening in their own communities.

There's a gentleman by the name of Lorenzo Salgado, who was a construction worker in Harris County and was trying to prevent ICE from deporting other Latinos within the community, and he was killed by ICE. He's now become the face of that betrayal in Texas.

So that's what's really driving out Latino voters. It's the betrayal, but also that betrayal has become economic for them...

BROWN: All right.

ETIENNE: ... especially along the border.

BROWN: We have got to wrap up. Sorry.

SINGLETON: OK. OK. Got it. I was just going to say...

BROWN: To be continued. SINGLETON: Real quick, will the drop-off in black voters and the

increase in the Hispanic voters be enough for Talarico? That's the question.

BROWN: We will see. That is a good question.

All right, Ashley, Shermichael, thank you all.

SINGLETON: Thanks, Pamela.

BROWN: We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:49:07]

BROWN: Happening now: Israelis are gearing up for the country's most important election in years. It is the first national vote since the October 7 terror attack.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a former military chief in a race that is too close to call.

CNN's Jeremy Diamond joins us now from Jerusalem.

So what's at stake in this election, Jeremy?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Pam, these are shaping up to be among the most consequential elections in Israel's history, a referendum not only on Israel's current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, the most right-wing in Israel's history, but also in many ways a question about what the direction of this country is going to be going forward.

Most importantly, perhaps, Pam, this is also the first opportunity that Israelis will have to weigh in on this government since the October 7 attack happened just over three years ago, an opportunity that many see as an opportunity for accountability for that government and for the security failures that led up to that terrible day.

[10:50:08]

The polls right now are showing a very, very tight race. Gadi Eisenkot, the former Israeli military chief of staff and the man now best positioned to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he and the opposition coalition are leading in all of the polls, but they are still falling short, as is the governing coalition, of that 61-seat majority threshold needed in Israel's Parliament in order to form a majority government.

And, so while Eisenkot, if the results hold, may get the opportunity to form the next government, it remains to be seen whether or not he actually will be able to. And so that is one of many unknowns going into tomorrow's elections.

Of course, looming large over all of this are a series of unfinished wars in Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, domestic issues as well as it relates to national military service and exemptions for the ultraorthodox minority here in Israel, and settler violence in the West Bank, a slew of other issues.

And at stake, of course, is not only the domestic political situation here in Israel, but perhaps the future of the Middle East in many ways, and Israel's future internationally as well, as this country has found itself increasingly and perhaps more isolated than ever before in history, all of that at stake in tomorrow's elections -- Pam.

BROWN: All right, Jeremy Diamond, thank you so much.

So let's continue this conversation.

Joining us now is CNN global affairs analyst Brett McGurk, a former Middle East and North Africa coordinator for the National Security Council.

Brett, thanks for being here.

So why should Americans be paying attention to this election in Israel?

BRETT MCGURK, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, Jeremy's summary, I think, was very good.

This is kind of two different directions that Israel might take. But I don't want to overstate it. I mean, what Israelis are talking about in Israel is very different than the conversation here at home. Israelis are talking about the importance of national service.

The ultraorthodox population Israel actually doesn't serve. It's a huge issue in the elections. Accountability for October 7, the commission of inquiry is a big issue. But in terms of Israel's security doctrine, whether it's Lebanon or Gaza, Gadi Eisenkot, who I also know very well, I wouldn't expect many changes.

I think you will see a change in policy in the West Bank. I think an Eisenkot government will really crack down on those violent extremists settler groups. But, overall, I mean, the election, the conversation in Israel is a little different than here.

But Americans should care. I mean, the -- what happens in the next two years with Iran, I think, will be dependent upon the conversations between the president and whoever the prime minister is in Israel. This is going to continue, Pam, as we have been talking about here for the last year.

This Iran conflict is likely to continue over the next two years throughout President Trump's term.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Over the next -- yes.

MCGURK: One way one way or other. It might be like it is now, where you have an economic kind of containment posture, or you might have a return to military operations. It's very, very unsettled.

BROWN: And.

MCGURK: And the prime minister of Israel will matter.

But these elections, don't expect a decisive result. It's not like -- it's very different. Israelis elect a -- they vote for a list, and then the president will nominate whoever he thinks has most likely chance to form a government. So it might be Eisenkot. It might be Netanyahu.

And then there's 28 days to form a government. Because the coalitions are so sharply divided, and then in the middle you have the Arab parties, about 20 percent of the population, there's a good chance here that nobody can form a government, and then you're rolling to new elections early next year. Netanyahu would be in a caretaker position.

If I had to kind of bet what's likely to happen, that seems to be what the polls show, very sharply -- like in every democracy. We just saw this in Brazil, sharply divided polarization positioning, and it makes it hard for democracies to kind of find their footing and have a consistent multiyear strategy, contrary to Russia, China, Iran, some of our adversaries, who do don't have that problem.

(CROSSTALK)

MCGURK: Bottom line, sharply divided Israeli electorate, two main coalitions, one Netanyahu, one Eisenkot. But then you got to form a government, and that's going to take a period of weeks.

BROWN: So let's just focus more a little bit on Iran and the war there. You said it, in some form or another, this could go on for the next couple of years.

MCGURK: Yes.

BROWN: But, in this moment now, U.S. officials tell CNN that American forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new attacks in Iran that would go beyond sort of the status quo.

Our understanding is, this would happen after the election. How are you reading the situation?

MCGURK: My understanding is that the negotiations for a deal are very deadlocked, and that Iran is refusing to make the concessions that the Trump administration is demanding on the nuclear program. And, without that, the White House is unlikely to accept a deal.

Then the question is, how do you kind of change the leverage at the negotiating table? Every negotiation is about leverage and power and incentives. One thought is, you just keep this economic pressure on, kind of a stalemate situation, we have a blockade on Iran.

[10:55:01]

But Iran's also putting pressure on the global economy, macroeconomic pressure, by targeting ships. Another is, you return to military operations to try to put more pressure on the Iranians. That has not worked in the past. There's some thought that this could be a larger operation. Different set of targets might change the cards.

I don't know. It's very uncertain. It's very difficult. We're in a bit of a pickle. I think this is going to play out. After the midterms, I would anticipate and predict we will go back to major operations. That seems to be where this is heading.

BROWN: Yes, when you look at the assets that's being deployed and...

MCGURK: Yes, it's being set up.

BROWN: Yes.

All right, Brett McGurk, thank you so much.

Here's what's coming up all new at the top of the hour.

Gas prices are now more expensive during President Trump's second term than during the Biden administration. While he's downplaying concerns, will it hurt Republicans at the ballot box?

And we're going to go one-on-one with Maryland Democratic Governor Wes Moore on what he's expecting on election night. That's all new next hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Welcome to our viewers in the United States and around the world. I'm Pamela Brown. Wolf Blitzer is on assignment. And you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.

It's eight days now until Election Day, the final week of campaigning and the last chance for candidates to close the deal with voters.