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The Source with Kaitlan Collins
First Results In Special Election For TN Congressional Seat; CNN Projects Republican Matt Van Epps Will Win TN Special Election; Hegseth Says He Didn't See Strike Survivors. Aired 9-10p ET
Aired December 02, 2025 - 21:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN HOST: And just very briefly, what's the percentage of vote in right now?
JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR & CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The percentage of vote in is about 56 percent. And so, again, then you go county by county through it. Only about half in Davidson County, if the vote is in. Behn has to run it up here.
COOPER: All right.
J. KING: It's her only vote, really, to run it up as you go.
And then some of these other counties, it varies from county to county, Anderson.
COOPER: All right.
J. KING: This one's 41. But you get out here, it's in the 90s.
COOPER: All right. John King, thanks very much.
Be sure to join Abby for "NEWSNIGHT" 10:00 p.m. Eastern.
The news continues right now. "THE SOURCE WITH KAITLAN COLLINS" starts now.
KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN HOST: We have some breaking news on this special Election Night, here in America, as we are awaiting the results right now of what has become an unexpectedly competitive race in Tennessee.
Right now, the Republican candidate in that race, Matthew Van Epps, has just retaken the lead against the Democrat in that race, Aftyn Behn. This is the race to become the next Representative of Tennessee's 7th congressional district. It's a district that President Trump won by more than 22 percentage points, last November, in what is usually a reliably conservative stronghold.
The reason this matters tonight is what we're talking about as we come on the air is because Democratic overperformances in several of those other key Senate -- or those other key special elections, I should say, this year, have put this race in the national spotlight.
Republicans have been fighting to avoid a major upset and a gash into what is an already razor-thin majority, here in Washington.
CNN's John King is my source tonight. He has the latest numbers at the Magic Wall.
John King, I know people aren't used to seeing you at the Magic Wall, maybe on a random Tuesday in December.
J. KING: Right.
COLLINS: But tell us what we're seeing in Tennessee tonight.
J. KING: We are seeing something that, at the moment, suggests the Republican might hold on to win. Matt Van Epps has just taken the lead. I'll explain why in a minute. And if you look through the map, you could see a progression to where Matt Van Epps can hold on.
I can also give you a scenario, though, where the Democrat, Aftyn Behn wins. But the fact that we're talking about this race, at 9 o'clock at night in the east, on this night, a special election, tells you everything you need to know.
Republicans are going to be nervous, even if they win this seat. Because Matt Van Epps is leading this race right now, but by less than a point, less than a point, Kaitlan. Let's say he stretches that out a little bit, right? OK. But just a little more than a year ago, on quaint little day, in November 2024 Election Day, Mark Green, the former incumbent in this congressional district, won it by 22 points. The man who sits in the White House, Donald Trump, won it by 22 points.
So, to your point about Democratic overperformance, or you might call it Republican underperformance. As we watch what has happened this year in Virginia, in New Jersey, in Pennsylvania, in Mississippi, in Georgia and elsewhere, in special elections and big statewide elections, Democrats are coming out to vote. The Republican coalition is not performing.
And here tonight, in Tennessee, again, Republicans may well hold this seat. But tomorrow, imagine, Mark Green won this by 22 points. Matt Van Epps might win it inside of single digits somewhere. If you are a Republican, anywhere else in America, who comes from a district Donald Trump carried by, say, 12, maybe even 15 points? You're thinking, Yesterday, I didn't think I was vulnerable next year. Maybe I better think about that again. So, it changes the battlefield, the map for the midterm elections, potentially.
It could also, Kaitlan, change a lot of conversations between Republicans, and the Trump White House, about those Obamacare subsidies, about what do we do next time a government shutdown prospect comes up, about how do we vote on things Trump wants to do that maybe the people in my district don't like. So, the margin here tonight matters. Even if the Republicans hold on, if it's that narrow margin, then it's going to cause jitters in the Republican Party.
And just want to check on Davidson County and Nashville. Only half of the vote in here. So, I'm speaking as if Matt Van Epps is going to win. That is my read when you look through the map. But we still have a lot of votes to count. And there is a mathematical possibility, if they have huge turnout in the Nashville area. We need to wait and look at those votes.
COLLINS: Well, and so, obviously, John King, if you're House Speaker Mike Johnson, right now, and you're looking at these numbers, given the huge margins that Green had, and that President Trump had in this district. I mean, what do you think he's looking into this tonight?
J. KING: Well, number one, you're going to say a win is a win is a win, and that's a stupid question. That's what he's going to say, when someone asks about the margins. He's going to say, A win is a win. And someone's going to say, Well, it's single digits versus 22. And he's going to say, A win is a win.
But let's assume the Republican wins this seat tonight, right? Let's assume. I know I'm making Democrats mad when I do this. OK. So that would give you 220 to 214. That is still a really tiny majority. And like I said, Marjorie Taylor Greene is leaving in January. There'll be a special election for that seat. So subtract one there, come January.
And imagine if you're Mike Lawler in New York? If you're a handful of Republican representatives in California? Even some of those Texans in districts Trump won, and they redrew the lines, and they thought they were helping them out, but they added some Latino voters? There will be a lot of Republicans looking at this, and saying, How did we go from 22 to, let's say it's five tonight or six tonight? How did that happen in ruby-red Tennessee, right?
Again, this district borders -- it's Kentucky to the north and Alabama to the south, right? It's rural red area, not a place we're normally talking about Democratic performance. So, if this is very close tonight? It's going to cause jitters across the party.
The Speaker might get one more seat, but he's going to get a lot more worries when he brings everybody together.
[21:05:00]
COLLINS: Yes, and we also saw President Trump involved, even to a degree here. I mean, he did a tele-rally for Van Epps a few weeks ago, if I remember. And so, if you're -- in terms of that, I think you make a good point of tying this back to what we saw at the White House today out of that press conference--
J. KING: Right.
COLLINS: --out of the Cabinet meeting, where the President was going off on affordability, saying it doesn't really mean anything, calling it a Democratic con job. I mean, that's what the Democrat in this race has really centered a lot of her campaign around.
J. KING: Yes. Look, I was in Nashville, a couple months ago. It was a personal trip. It was not a work trip. But whenever I'm traveling personally, I ask people a lot of questions, right? I was just in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, in another competitive congressional district, just a couple of weeks ago, with a lot of Trump voters.
In Pennsylvania, and during my travels down in Nashville, again on a personal trip, people are saying, Our costs are either up or about the same. Now, a lot of Trump voters say they give him more patience. But when the President sits in the White House, as he did today, and says this affordability thing is a hoax cooked up by Democrats? A lot of his own voters are saying, No, sir, come check my math.
COLLINS: Yes. And when you say, a win is a win, John King? And that's what I say after Alabama wins narrowly on Saturdays in the fall. And so it still does count. Obviously, they'll still have a Republican seat here.
J. KING: Right.
COLLINS: But if you're looking at this map, wondering how this is going to go tonight, maybe hoping that this race would have been called already, right now, where are the most outstanding votes?
J. KING: So we got to switch maps to do that, and I'll just make the point, as I do.
When Alabama wins and it's very close, I suspect you might have an extra Mint Julep or two. As you're spinning people that a win is a win, you get something else to drink.
So here -- what are we looking at here, right? This is the way the district tends to look, right? You have Nashville blue. The reason the Epps campaign could be a little bit more confident is because Montgomery County, which had been coming in blue all night, has now flipped back as we get more of the votes.
But again, this is the key point I want to make. I'll come back to the district wide right now. This is Davidson County. This is Nashville. We haven't gotten new votes here in quite a bit. This is Behn's only possibility is overwhelming raw turnout. Not just the percentage raw turnout.
But if you look across this now, you're looking at a race that looks like as we have in there -- that a Behn -- a Van Epps win, excuse me, in single digits. But again, to use this one as an example, you come up to Montgomery County, he has flipped it now. It is red. But that's four points, right? 51 to 47. Donald Trump won this county. Mark Green, the Republican incumbent, won this county, a little over a year ago, by 19 points.
So, 19 points a year ago. Four points, tonight. Republicans will say, A win is a win? It's a weak win. It's just a weaker win, period, which means the Republican Party is weaker in places where it tends to run strong. And the principal reason for that is 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Period.
COLLINS: Yes. Obviously, we'll keep looking at those numbers.
J. KING: Right.
COLLINS: John King, keep updating us, as we're looking at this.
David Chalian, you're here too.
I mean, those numbers that John's pointing out tonight, in terms of how well Trump did there, how well Mark Green did there, and what's playing out right now. If you're sitting at the White House, and you've been watching how all these special elections have been playing out, the last few weeks, and then you're looking at this tonight, I wonder how you're feeling.
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, you're feeling relieved that you may pull this out and that a Republican will be in this Republican seat.
But you know, you talk to the folks in the White House every day. After the November elections, White House aides were saying, We got to make sure that we're not trying to avoid this affordability thing, that affordability is an issue on voters' minds, and that was clear in the New Jersey, Virginia elections.
That's clear in this election. So clear that Matt Van Epps, the Republican candidate, Kaitlan, if you look at one of his closing ads, he is talking about bringing prices down and dealing with health care premiums. I mean, it sounds very similar to what Aftyn Behn has been running on.
So, Republicans around the country, who are on the ballot next year, know that they have a problem as it comes to Donald Trump's economy. Donald Trump, as you saw today in the Cabinet Room, is not at all willing to sort of acknowledge. He's calling affordability a con game.
I will just note. You talk about these special elections this year. I was just looking back. In April, in April in one of the Florida special elections, Escambia County, Pensacola, Florida? That is a place Donald Trump won by 19 or 20 points just last year. The Democrat in that special election, which didn't win the district, but in that county, flipped it. The first time a federal candidate on the Democratic side won Escambia County since 1992.
This is a story of this entire year. Yes, this electorate in the off- year doesn't look like a midterm or a presidential electorate. But it does signal that the motivated, enthusiastic drive for people, who are paying attention to politics, to come out and vote? That's benefiting Democrats right now, and it is harming Republicans.
COLLINS: And the throughline for these campaigns that we're seeing for the Democratic candidates is affordability is what they've centered on. And the Republicans in those races, despite what the President is saying in the Cabinet Room today, that it's a con job, basically manufactured by Democrats, and the media? I mean, that's not what the Republicans in those races are saying.
CHALIAN: Or the Republicans throughout the conference on Capitol Hill who have to be on a ballot next year.
COLLINS: Yes. [21:10:00]
CHALIAN: They are aware where voters are right now on affordability, and the economy. And I think you're going to start to see more and more some tension, between Donald Trump, and the Republicans who are running for reelection next year, on this very issue to try and get him to use his megaphone as a way to express to Americans that he's on the case to bring prices down.
COLLINS: One thing he's used his megaphone for is redistricting and calls for that. I wonder what you make of how that's played, if at all, into what we're watching play out tonight. Because redistricting did happen here in Tennessee, obviously, and when we look at where Aftyn Behn was trying to win the voters over.
CHALIAN: Yes. And listen, we have come to a world in American politics where partisan gerrymandering is allowed by the Supreme Court, and Donald Trump seized on that this year, ordered up Texas to change their lines.
You saw what happened in Missouri. You saw what happened under court order in Ohio. So Republicans were really trying, in the mid-decade, to change this map to an advantage. We saw Gavin Newsom in California snap that back to some degree.
I'm not sure at the end of the day, when all the redistricting is done, Kaitlan, that we are going to see a huge advantage for one party or the other. I think far more 2026 is not going to be determined by these redistricting moves. It's going to be determined by the American people's assessment of Donald Trump, on the economy.
COLLINS: Yes, which tonight for the White House is maybe a warning sign as they're watching these numbers come in.
David Chalian.
We're going to continue to monitor all of this and check in with David Chalian, and with John King at the Magic Wall.
Also here tonight is a House Democrat. Colorado congressman, Jason Crow.
And Congressman, as you're watching these numbers come in. Even if Republicans win this seat. And as John correctly noted, a win is a win. And Mike Johnson will be happy to have a Republican in that seat instead of a Democrat. I wonder what you think it says, and what these numbers so far are -- the takeaways are for Democrats, for your party?
REP. JASON CROW (D-CO): Well, a win is a win is what you say when you're losing really badly in places when you're not supposed to be losing really badly.
I'm helping lead recruitment for House Democrats to find the next generation of leaders around the country. I've been traveling the country, this year. I've been in New Hampshire. I've been in Arizona. I've actually been in Tennessee, in the last couple of months, to campaign with and help Aftyn.
And what I can tell you is there is a level of energy, and enthusiasm, and blowback, to the outright corruption and the dysfunction of this administration that is unlike anything I have ever seen. The energy in rural areas and working-class areas, where people have said, Enough is enough. This is not at all what we signed up for. We've given Donald Trump a chance. He is failing miserably. He's making our life worse. We're willing to try something else.
And there's candidates, like Aftyn and others, who are stepping up and getting the job done.
COLLINS: I mean, this is a place that the President had a really safe margin by. But also the Republican who won this. I mean, 20-something points. If this comes down to a single-digit margin tonight, what does that say to Republicans, in your view?
CROW: What it says is that we are coming deep into your territory, and many of you are going to lose your jobs. That, your dereliction of duty, you turning your back on your oath, you turning your back on your constituents, on their health care, on their cost of living, you turning a blind eye to the rank corruption of the Trump administration, is going to cost you your job. And it should cost you your job, because you haven't been looking out for the people that sent you to Washington to fight for them, and it's time for you to go.
But more than that, it also shows not just that we are winning elections. But I'm focusing on that next generation of servant leaders around the country, who aren't just going to win elections and flip districts, but are going to start a movement to put an end, once and for all, to Donald Trump, and the corruption and the dysfunction that he brings to this country. We are going to sweep him out, and we are going to bring something new to this country. This is a movement. This is not just muddling from election to election.
COLLINS: We might see a subsidy fight, when it comes to the health care subsidies that are expiring, play out here next week, in Washington. The Senate is expected to bring it up for a vote. We're not expecting it to pass right now. Obviously, we'll see what happens, and what Republicans counter with.
Do you think, looking at results like this, and what we saw in the other recent elections, will change any of your Republican colleagues' minds?
CROW: Well, I have no reason to believe that they're going to do the right thing. I have given them time and opportunity after opportunity to do the right thing, to defend and fight for the people that voted for them, that sent them to Washington. And they have, over and over and over again, chosen their billionaire donors, chosen Donald Trump and his minions over those folks.
And let's not forget that this subsidy fight was created by Donald Trump and the Republicans, in July, when they actually voted for Trump's mega, disastrous bill, to give the largest tax giveaway and tax break, in American history, to billionaires and the top 1 percent, on the backs of rural working-class Americans and their health care.
[21:15:00]
That's why we're here, that's why this crisis had been created, because they created it, in July. And now, we're fighting to clean it up. But they're not even doing anything to help us try to clean it up. And they own this. And we're going to make them own it. We're going to continue to try to fight and work for these folks, to fix this.
COLLINS: Yes.
CROW: But it's time for them to go.
COLLINS: I mentioned that Cabinet meeting today, where the President described affordability, the term being a con job, saying it doesn't really mean anything.
That was also where the Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, said he was not in the room for that second strike that's at the heart of the controversy, over whether something illegal happened during that strike.
Obviously, you were a veteran. What did you make of, when Secretary Hegseth described it as the fog of war, saying he did not personally see the survivors hanging on to that wreckage, before the second strike happened, as he talked about it being on fire, and he likened that to. What did you make of that?
CROW: This is a man who has created the conditions for what we're seeing right now, who is continuing to put our service members, our best and brightest people that I served with, I fought with, people that I think about every single day, and not only as a combat veteran and a former Army Ranger, but as a member of the Armed Services Committee and the Intelligence Committee that has an obligation to help protect and defend and serve these men and women.
The recklessness and the lawlessness of this administration, and the rhetoric of people like Pete Hegseth, as he bangs his war drums, pounds his chest, threatens to do lawless and reckless things. This is what comes out of it, right? This is not cost-free stuff.
And I learned a long time ago, when I was a junior enlisted and an officer, that when people talk tough in Washington, D.C., when they bang their war drums? They're not the ones that have to go and do the tough stuff. It's some kid, some young son or daughter, somebody from a rural town, often in some place we haven't heard of, that has to go and jump into a tank, jump into a helicopter, jump into a plane, and get the dirty work done.
That's what I had to do, when I was a young man. And that's why I bristle, I get so pissed off, when they act tough, and they put people in these untenable, terrible positions like they have, this past year.
COLLINS: Well, I also have to ask, because obviously you were one of the Democrats, who put out the video, telling service members, before this, that they had to refuse illegal orders, that they couldn't do that. The White House said that was, you know -- I mean, they accused you of sedition, basically, the President did, which he noted was punishable by death.
Before that video was put out, years ago, almost 10 years ago, Secretary Hegseth said something, in 2016, before he was the Defense Secretary. I want you to listen to that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PETE HEGSETH, DEFENSE SECRETARY: I do think there have to be consequences for abject war crimes. If you're doing something that is just completely unlawful and ruthless, then there is a consequence for that. That's why the military said it won't follow unlawful orders from their commander-in-chief. There's a standard, there's an ethos, there's a belief that we are above what so many things that our enemies or others would do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Do you think that's different than what you were saying?
CROW: No, it's not. And this just illustrates my point. The reason I and my colleagues put that video out is because of the recklessness, and the lawlessness, and the irresponsible rhetoric, and the positions that they are putting our service members in.
And we wanted to send a very clear message that, You do have to follow the law, that your fidelity is to the Constitution. And this is what your training says. This is what is drilled into you from the first day of boot camp.
And that old Pete Hegseth video reiterates exactly that training. He has long since sold his soul to Donald Trump, and turned his back on his loyalty and his oath to the country.
But that is exactly what we're trained to do, and that is exactly what every soldier, what every sailor, what every airman, knows is the right thing to do, and is drilled into them from day one.
And in fact, that's no different from what I did with my platoon, before I took them to Iraq, before I took them to Afghanistan, and we'd sit down, we'd talk about the law of war. We'd talk about these types of situations, and what you are obligated to do, and what you are not obligated to do, and what not only is your right but is your duty to do in situations like that.
COLLINS: Yes.
CROW: But it tells you everything you need to know, when Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth accuse me of treason, and say I should be hung and executed for simply pointing out what the law says.
COLLINS: Congressman Jason Crow, thank you for joining us on this, and the breaking news tonight.
CROW: Thank you. COLLINS: And we do have more on the breaking news coming in tonight. We're looking at those numbers and the results coming in from Tennessee. The Democratic candidate in that race that we were just talking about, Aftyn Behn, is going to join me, right after this.
[21:20:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Welcome back to Special Election Night here in America.
President Trump has just congratulated the Republican, Matt Van Epps, in the special election for Tennessee's 7th congressional district. The votes are still coming in. It's a district that the President knows well. He won it by 22 points, last year.
And it comes, as Republicans have been fighting to fend off an embarrassing upset in once was a deep red district, as the President himself had brushed off any concerns on what the results could -- tonight, what they could mean for his party overall, and of course, those midterms that we're looking ahead to, in 2026.
[21:25:00]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: I won your state by 22 points. I won the area by something, I think, even more than that. So if it's like two points less than that, they'll say, 'Oh, that's terrible. I guess Trump's losing his magic.' But he's -- I think Matt, I want Matt to do better than me, even.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: That is what we heard from President Trump earlier on this race, as this was coming in.
I'm being joined now by the Democratic candidate in this race, Aftyn Behn.
And thank you so much for being here.
As we are watching all this play out. First off, let me just get your thoughts on what's been happening so far, and what you make of the numbers that have come in.
AFTYN BEHN, (D) TENNESSEE STATE REPRESENTATIVE: Well, our message resonated across the district, that Washington is not working for working families. And it resonated with voters across political stripes across the district. The votes are still coming in. But we overperformed in places we needed to, and we lost less in places we needed to. So, I think it's a testament to the strength of the momentum of our campaign and what we built.
COLLINS: The President is already calling this race for your opponent here. Do you believe that you can still win? BEHN: We shall see. As I said, the votes are coming in. Nashville's Election Day totals are still coming in. We have the most purple bellwether county of Montgomery.
But like I said, we've knocked over 70,000 doors. We made a 125,000 calls. We outraised my opponent. This is a testament that Democrats can compete in high turnout elections, because we're seeing that type of high turnout, right now, in a special election.
COLLINS: Has anything tonight surprised you so far?
BEHN: No. I mean, the excitement has just been -- I've been so overwhelmed by the grassroots support across the district. The county parties are -- have been working hard. And we've got a great party ahead of us. So, I'm just looking forward to celebrating with the people who matter and made this campaign what it is.
COLLINS: As the President noted, he won this district by 22 points, last year. I think people might be surprised to see that it was even competitive tonight. Even if you don't win this election, what do you think the takeaways should be, not just for Democrats, but for Republicans in this race?
BEHN: This was a district that Trump won handily, and he and his billionaire friends had to spend millions of dollars to bolster their candidate of choice. And so, I think it looks -- it portends what will happen next year, when you have Republicans that are in more competitive seats, struggling with candidates that look a lot like me. And for me, that's a really exciting moment, and I look forward to midterms next year.
COLLINS: If this race does go to your opponent, will you call him to concede this evening?
BEHN: Absolutely. I actually called and asked for his campaign manager's phone. And as we like to do in the south, we are hospitable. We love Southern hospitality. And so, absolutely, I will call him and make sure that he knows that we -- that I ran a good race, and I look forward to maybe competing with him next year.
COLLINS: So you would -- you're leaving the door open to, if you lose this race tonight, to potentially running again?
BEHN: Perhaps, yes, absolutely. I mean, obviously I have to rest for a few days and circle back with my team. But we've run an amazing race. All things considered, the deck was stacked against us, especially in the deep red south, and we've narrowed the margin. And for me, that is a celebration worth having.
COLLINS: What would you say is the biggest thing you've learned, while you've been speaking with voters and conducting this race?
BEHN: That voters of the 7th congressional district want elected officials who won't sell them out, and who are accessible and accountable to the people and not the special interests. And so, I hope, moving forward, that we'll see more candidates like me that don't accept corporate PAC money, and that don't answer to the special interests and the puppet masters of the universe, but rather the people they represent.
COLLINS: Aftyn Behn, thank you for joining us tonight. Obviously, we will continue watching this race closely. I really appreciate you joining us, as these results are coming in. Thank you.
BEHN: Thank you so much.
COLLINS: And John King, you're still at the Magic Wall.
J. KING: Right.
COLLINS: You were just listening to Aftyn Behn there, the Democrat in this race, saying that she might be running again, should this not go in her favor, this evening.
As you've been looking at these numbers in what is such a red area, what's the latest you're seeing?
J. KING: Well, she is about to be involved, Kaitlan, in one of the fascinating conversations that is happening all across the country, as Democrats try to think about, Do we go left or do we go center, as we head into the 2026 midterms, who are our best candidates? So, we have--
COLLINS: John, can I--
J. KING: Right.
COLLINS: Can I pause you just for one moment?
J. KING: Sure, go ahead.
COLLINS: Because we can now make a--
J. KING: Go ahead.
COLLINS: --a projection in this race.
J. KING: Right.
COLLINS: CNN can project that Matt Van Epps, the Republican in this race, is going to be the next Representative of the 7th congressional district in Tennessee, winning this special election. And obviously, that is a sigh of relief--
J. KING: Yes.
COLLINS: --for House Speaker Mike Johnson, as we were talking about that close, razor-thin majority here, that they have that margin, in Washington, John.
J. KING: Right.
[21:30:00] COLLINS: But continue with what you think the biggest takeaways will be.
J. KING: Right. So, she just made a very important point to you, and a very factual point to you. She has made this a much, much, much, much, much closer race than just a year ago, when Donald Trump and the then- Republican incumbent Mark Green carried this district by 22 points.
And look at this. We're at 83 percent of the vote counted. It could actually get a little bit closer, it might stretch out a little bit, but you've got a four-point race, as you're looking at it right now. Simple math for the people at home, 22 to somewhere in the ballpark of four or five? That's huge, huge progress for the Democrat.
Now, what are we waiting? I just want to look real quickly. 91 percent in Davidson County. So look, this is why we called this race. There's not enough votes to come in, in the Nashville area, the heavy blue area, the only heavy blue area in the district to help her out.
But here's the conversation now. She mentioned the bellwether Montgomery County in her conversation with you. Donald Trump won this county by 19 points, 19 points, a little more than a year ago. She's within four, right?
So, she can make the case, to the Democratic donors and to the Democratic consultants in Washington. I just ran a close race. He will now be an incumbent. He will not be a challenger like me. He will be an incumbent Republican in Donald Trump's Republican Party. If next year is a good year for us, I can make up the other four points. That will be her argument.
There will be some Democrats who say, She's a progressive. We want to win in these rural areas. Should we run somebody more moderate?
So, this is about to be Exhibit A in what will be a fascinating conversation, all across the country, but especially in areas like this, where Democrats -- Congressman Crow just mentioned it to you. Democrats think Spanberger proved it a little bit in Virginia. We're not quite there to say yes yet. But Democrats think they can run a little bit better in rural areas, maybe a lot better in some places. but a little bit better in rural areas helps you, as long as you turn out your votes in urban areas. So, this is going to be a fascinating conversation.
That's a great race by her. Now, you could argue -- you know, some Democrats and some Republicans will argue, it's the climate, it's the particular moment, it was a perfect storm for her. But she has a strong case to make that once he's an incumbent, maybe I can do better.
But I can tell you, there will be Democrats who say, If you want to win in these rural counties, we need, even though that's an improvement over two years ago, we need a little better than 25 percent.
So, she is about to be again in the center of a fascinating -- the identity crisis that both parties have. There's going to be a lot of nerves in the Republican Party. Is it time to break more from Donald Trump? How do we get Donald Trump to stop saying affordability is a hoax, a con job, and get Donald Trump to actually try to deal more with affordability? Democrats are having their own little identity conversation. And she's now right in the middle of it.
COLLINS: Well, and just to make sure everyone at home is on the same page with us, John.
Because Matt Van Epps will be filling out and serving the rest of Mark Green's term.
J. KING: Right.
COLLINS: But then he'll have to run again--
J. KING: Yes.
COLLINS: --next November.
J. KING: He'll be running next November, with everyone else on the ballot, when Democrats think, again, looking at what happened in New Jersey, what happened in Virginia, what happened in Pennsylvania, what happened in Mississippi, what happened in Georgia, and now tonight, even in defeat, what happened in Tennessee. David Chalian was talking earlier, about the previous special elections, even the ones that have gone Republican, Democrats have overperformed. So, Democrats are incredibly optimistic, going into next year.
And she's now going to be able to say, I ran a really close race. Nobody thought I could do that. Right?
We'll see what the end is. But right now, you're at about four point -- four, five points.
She's going to say, no one thought that was possible. Give me a chance, now that he's an incumbent. Not just a guy from Tennessee. He's a Republican Trump MAGA House Congress member. That's what she's going to say.
But there will be Democrats who argue, What if we get someone a little bit more moderate?
Welcome to the Democratic debate.
COLLINS: Yes, a win is a win. But from a 22-point margin of victory to four or five, has a lot of implications.
John King, we're going to check back in with you at the Magic Wall.
We have a lot more on our breaking news.
And to John's point there, what does this mean, not just for Republicans, also for Democrats, going forward?
We'll be right back after this. [21:35:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: We do have breaking news this evening, as CNN can now project that the Republican Matt Van Epps has won the special election in Tennessee's 7th congressional district.
That is staving off an attempt at a stunning political upset by Democrats from the candidate in this race, Aftyn Behn, who you just heard from here. It's a district that, of course, is used to be considered a conservative stronghold. And when I say used to be, I mean last year, because President Trump won this district by more than 22 points in the presidential election.
The President has already weighed in tonight, congratulating Van Epps here, and calling this, quote, a big win, in all-caps.
My best political sources are here with me now.
And David Chalian, the President is calling it a big win. Obviously they are happy, just the Republican has won this race. But the question is really what this margin is going to look like, and as we're reading the tea leaves into to what this could mean.
CHALIAN: Yes, sometimes in politics, what is happening is clear and in front of you. And that is what's been happening this whole year, in special elections, in New Jersey and Virginia in November, in lots of other places across the country, lower down on the ballot, and now here in this special election.
And that is that Democrats are significantly overperforming what Kamala Harris did last year versus Donald Trump in all of these places, all different kinds of places. They're doing it in some blue places, where he made big grounds with voters of color, young men and the like. They're doing it in ruby-red districts, like tonight in Tennessee 7th.
[21:40:00]
And so, however the White House wants to spin this, the reality is they are going to have to find a way to change the trajectory of the political climate. Because right now, they are caught in a cycle where Donald Trump's approval ratings are going down. The American public are very displeased what he's doing on issue number one, the economy. And they are heading into a midterm where history, as a guide, would say, Democrats would be poised to have a good year as the party out of power.
All of that together means that Trump and the Republicans are on defense, and they've got to find a way, if they're going to hold on to the House majority, to get on to offense fast.
COLLINS: Yes.
Alencia, what are your takeaways so far? ALENCIA JOHNSON, SENIOR ADVISER, BIDEN 2020 CAMPAIGN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Listen, I think the only way that Republicans turn this thing around is actually different policies. But that's going to be really hard.
And the reality is that so many people are feeling the policy implications, and realizing that Donald Trump ran on the economy, and for a lot of vote -- a lot of people, majority of people, except for the super-wealthy, costs have gone up. Unemployment has gone up. And you've demonized so many different communities in this country. And so, there are voters who regret their vote for Donald Trump.
But I also think the piece that we have to pay attention to, we being folks who vote Democratic or engage with the Democratic Party, is to look at the voters that didn't turn out in 2024, that have started to show up, in the election in November, as well as the special election, and see what is the motivating factor?
Because I think we can't blanket-statement what the Democratic Party messaging has to be next year, because I hear the tension that folks often raise of, should they go more progressive or left-leaning? Should they go more moderate? I'm more of a progressive. But we actually have to go state by state, county by county.
Affordability is what won in November. Affordability is what turned a lot of folks out. But it looks different, in the Tennessee 7, than it did in Virginia, than it did in New York City. And so, Democrats have to figure out a way to balance a message that captures all of our base.
And I will say this, as a communications professional strategist, Republicans tend to have a hell of a message, right, even if they are stealing from the very low-income folks and lining the pockets of very wealthy folks. But Democrats have been able to actually get around a message that unifies a lot of people, and that's been affordability and health care.
COLLINS: David Urban, I believe that you used to live in this district, if I am not wrong. You've spent some time here, back in the day.
DAVID URBAN, FORMER TRUMP CAMPAIGN ADVISER: Yes, I -- yes.
I think I called -- I called this race at 08:43. Actually, my classmate, Mark Green, former Congressman, Mark Green, whose district this was, called this race at 08:43. I told John King, You can take it off the map.
Listen, congratulations to Congressman-elect -- congratulations to Congressman-elect Matt Van Epps, a fellow West Point graduate as well. David Chalian can check on this. I'm not sure a West Point graduate has ever replaced a West Point graduate in a congressional seat, and I know this to be true.
Mark Green is an alumni of the very illustrious Task Force 160, a Special Operations Aviation Regiment, as well as Matt Van Epps. So very, very elite group of people here replacing one another.
Listen, the woman you had on just got smoked. She ran a nice race. She'll never be heard from again. Democrats threw a lot of money at this. They're not going to come back in 2026 in the fall, and throw good money after bad. They'll go out -- they'll go out and find other places.
This isn't -- I don't think anyone's going to wet themselves tomorrow morning about this race. It was an off-year special election. I think we'll take a little lessons from it. But we got a big W, and a nice, great congressman, who'll be there for a long time.
COLLINS: Well--
URBAN: Congratulations to Matt Epps -- Matt Van Epps too.
COLLINS: Scott Jennings. David Urban is saying that we might never hear from her again. I don't know, she just said -- she just alluded to the fact that she might run again, next year, as she did in our interview.
But Scott Jennings, when you look at this. A win is a win. That is our phrase of the night. But obviously, when you look at the margins here, if it does go from 22 points a year ago to single digits here. What would your takeaways from that be?
SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, HOST, "THE SCOTT JENNINGS RADIO SHOW" ON SRN: Well, first of all, there's lessons to be learned from everything. When you win, there's lessons. When you lose, there's lessons. And so, I'm sure they'll look and see who turned out, and what messages were effective and which ones weren't, and that will be something the party can move going forward.
It's an off-year special election. The turnout matrix is far different than a presidential, and it'll be different than what comes out in November. So, you can take nothing for granted, of course, and Republicans do have historical headwinds.
I still think they are in position to make an argument that their economic theories are better than the Democrats' theories. And Democrats, after all, took prices to the moon, and now they want to forget the last four years and pretend like this just started 10 months ago. I think most voters know that's patently ridiculous.
[21:45:00]
I do have a slight disagreement with David. I do think we'll hear from her again. I think she'll run again, and I think she and her brand of politics are the median Democrat. This is the basic Democrat you're going to get in most races around the country. This person running on defund the police, radical progressive positions. Whether you are in Nashville or Manhattan or Florida or California -- wherever you happen to be, this is what the Democratic base wants. The most Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs person they can find. And they're going to--
URBAN: She hates country music. JENNINGS: --they're going to look at these results, and say, Hey, this is how we got so close, so let's replicate it around the country.
I think we'll hear from her and her kind for the next year. I don't think it'll be good for Democrats.
COLLINS: But can I ask you on that? Because you said that she ran on defund the police. There were her past comments on that, but she said that, that was basically, when she was a private citizen, before she was representing the state legislature. I mean, that wasn't like a core tenet of her campaign. She talked about affordability.
So, I think my question is, is do you really think every -- that's what every Democrat looks like. I mean, I don't think that was the main -- that was something that a criticism of hers, obviously, of past comments.
JENNINGS: Yes, I do.
COLLINS: But that wasn't the tenet of her campaign or anything.
JENNINGS: She got asked about it repeatedly, and refused to back away from it. And, look, I'm just telling you. This is what Democrats believe, and this is what their base wants. It's why she wouldn't go back on it.
I was just a private citizen?
Oh my gosh, we've never held what you said as a private citizen against you in a political campaign, for goodness sakes. What a ridiculous way to just maintain a position that nobody likes? This is the median Democrat position. She is the median Democrat candidate, and that's what their base wants. So, that's what we're in for, and Republicans need to draw bright lines on this stuff in every race in the country.
COLLINS: Yes, we'll see what the takeaways are.
URBAN: Yes.
COLLINS: Scott Jennings. David Urban. Alencia. And David Chalian. Great to have you all here.
We are back with more breaking news in a moment. You've got to hear what the Defense Secretary had to say today, in that Cabinet meeting, about where he was during that second strike on the alleged drug boat where the survivors were killed.
[21:50:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: New answers out of the White House tonight might have only prompted more questions about what happened in the lead up to that second strike, on an alleged drug boat, that killed two survivors, and whether or not that strike was legal. Tonight's revelations came from the Defense Secretary himself, as Pete Hegseth now clarifies he was not in the room when that second strike happened.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HEGSETH: I watched that first strike live. As you can imagine, at the Department of War, we got a lot of things to do. So, I didn't stick around for the hour and two hours, whatever, where all the sensitive site exploitation digitally occurs. So, I moved on to my next meeting.
I did not personally see survivors, but I stand -- because the thing was on fire. It was exploded in fire or smoke, you can't see the digital there's -- this is called the fog of war.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Today, we again saw the Defense Secretary shifting the responsibility for that call to an Admiral here. He says now that after he watched that first strike, it was hard to see what had happened in the water, that he didn't know there were survivors, personally, he said, because, as he put it, the boat was on fire after it was struck the first time. He went on about his day there at the Department of Defense.
And I should remind you tonight, as we're looking at all of this and hearing what we're hearing from lawmakers on Capitol Hill. One of Secretary Hegseth's first moves, as the Defense Secretary, was to fire the top lawyers at the Pentagon. He said he wanted attorneys who would provide the best possible recommendations, and that the people he fired were not well-suited for those jobs.
This is what he said, when he was pressed at his own confirmation hearing about the rules of engagement.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. ANGUS KING (I-ME): --not be observed?
HEGSETH: We follow rules. We follow rules. But we don't need burdensome rules of engagement that make it impossible for us to win these wars. And that's what President Trump understands.
A. KING: You're saying two different things. You're saying, We follow rules, but we don't have to follow the rules in all cases. Is that correct?
HEGSETH: Senator, I'm making--
A. KING: And burdensome rules?
HEGSETH: Senator, I'm making an important tactical distinction that warfighters will understand.
(END VIDEO CLIP) COLLINS: And I want to turn now to a Senator who sits on both the Armed Services and the Intelligence committees. Maine's senator, Angus King.
And thank you, Senator, for being here.
Because you actually questioned Secretary Hegseth, before he was the secretary, at his confirmation hearing. There was a back and forth between the two of you, where he actually talked about certain rules of engagement that he believed were burdensome.
A. KING: Right.
COLLINS: At the time, obviously, you were pressing them -- pressing him in hypothetical terms. Now that this is playing out in a real-life scenario, I wonder what you make of that.
A. KING: It's exactly what I was concerned about, because he never would answer my questions. And I was asking about the basic structure, the Geneva Convention and the laws of war, and he kept pivoting back to saying, We don't want to restrict our war fighters and warriors, and all the kinds of things that you've heard him say.
And here we are in a situation where the laws of war, and the manual of the Department of Defense is directly in play. And it's just what -- it's exactly what I was concerned about, six months ago.
COLLINS: Well, and I should note that, I mean, you brought these three volumes with you.
A. KING: Yes.
COLLINS: Why did you bring these tonight?
A. KING: Well, because it's so relevant. This is something called the Department of Defense Law of War Manual. It's in three volumes, and the third volume applies to this situation directly.
First, let me say, this is a case where the law is very clear, the facts aren't. And we really need to get at the facts. Who gave what orders, when? What was the nature of the Secretary's order? What did he say? What order did he give to the Admiral? Then, what did the Admiral do? What did the Secretary know about the strike? All of those things are very relevant.
[21:55:00]
The problem comes in what the result was, which, allegedly, again, we're waiting to get the facts, but it appears that two people survived the initial boat strike, and they were in the water hanging on to the wreckage of the boat, and the Special Forces went in and killed them. That's against the law. That's a war crime. That's a stone-cold, clear war crime.
And what's interesting is you go into this, to the -- to the manual that is supposed to govern what we do. And I hate reading on the air, but I'm going to, in this case.
COLLINS: Please do.
A. KING: Section 18.3.2.1. Clearly Illegal Orders to Commit Law of War Violations. The requirement to refuse to comply with orders to commit law of war violations applies to orders to perform conduct that is clearly illegal or orders that the subordinate knows, in fact, are illegal.
By the way, that's what the senators and the congressmen were saying, You don't obey illegal orders.
For example, I'm reading, orders to fire upon the ship wrecked would be clearly illegal.
Couldn't be much more clear than that. And it goes back--
COLLINS: And they have acknowledged, as he did today, that after that first strike, when he was asked if he personally saw those survivors, he said no, and he said, because it was on fire, essentially because it had already been hit.
A. KING: But then he said, the day after this strike, he was on TV, sort of bragging about having seen it, and had the tape, and I saw it in real-time.
Today, he said, Well, I didn't see the second strike. I had to go to a meeting.
Well, I want to see his calendar for that day. I want to know what meeting he went to. I want to know how long he was, where he was. And I want to see, we want to see, the Committee wants to see, the whole tape of exactly what transpired.
The second thing that's worrisome about this, it's been reported that his order was, Kill everybody. That in itself is an illegal order. You cannot order -- because if somebody has surrendered, or if, this case, if they're shipwrecked and helpless, you can't kill them. So an order -- the other term is called, Give no quarter. Throughout history, that's been an illegal order.
So, I want to know exactly what he said, and I want to know what the Admiral did. And this is--
COLLINS: Well and--
A. KING: --this is serious stuff.
COLLINS: The Admiral, they keep bringing up.
And so, Secretary Hegseth said today, he was not in the room for that second strike, that he left, because he said that he was busy and they had a lot going on.
You said, the law is clear, the facts are not.
That Admiral is going to be on the Hill, this week. What questions do you have for him?
A. KING: Well, I want to ask -- what I want to know is, number one, What was the order you had? In other words, what did the -- what order did the Secretary give you? Because the Admiral had some order. He wasn't out shooting down boats on his own. So, he had an order from the secretary. The Secretary had some either authority delegated by the President, but the Secretary -- so, I want to know what was the order.
And then I want to know, OK, what happened? Was there a second strike? Were there survivors? Were they killed? And what justification is there? But I haven't seen any justification.
This is -- this is very serious. After World War II, we, and the British, and at Nuremberg, we tried Germans for shooting sailors in the water after a boat was sunk.
COLLINS: The more you've heard from this administration on this, has it eased your concerns at all?
A. KING: No. Because the stories keep changing.
The Secretary said before, I was there, I saw it. Now, he says, Well, I wasn't in the room, I left.
And the President basically is saying, I don't know anything about this. I trust Pete.
So, I just -- like I say, I want to get to the facts, and let it be known that I started by saying, We've got to determine if these facts are valid. If they are, the law is pretty clear, and we've got something really serious on our hands.
COLLINS: And obviously, as you're trying to get those questions. The President also said today, as Secretary Hegseth said that these strikes will continue, the President said that land strikes in Venezuela could happen soon.
Is that something you would support?
A. KING: No, ma'am. Not without some justification. Not without coming to Congress for either a Declaration of War or an Authorization of the Use of Military Force.
COLLINS: If the President wants to strike Venezuela, he needs to come to Congress first.
A. KING: I believe that he does, clearly, under our current law, under the -- under the law that's been in place since, essentially, since Vietnam.
And to get us into a land war in another country is very, very serious. And I think the President seems to think it would be some kind of cakewalk. He said, We know where your roots are. We know where you live.
[22:00:00]
Venezuela is not defenseless. And to essentially talk about, as the President did today, what we're going to do, we're going to do strikes within the country?
Are they going to send troops? There are now 2,200 Marines down in the Caribbean. There are six destroyers. There's an aircraft carrier. They aren't there to go after little gunboats, little drug-running boats.
COLLINS: And if he doesn't come to Congress, what will you do?
A. KING: If he doesn't come to Congress, I think we've got to take some kind of action, to enforce -- to enforce the law.
And I don't understand why he wouldn't. If he thinks the case is strong, then let him make the case, to us. But also, this isn't about Congress. This is about the American people.
COLLINS: Senator Angus King, as always, thank you for your time.
A. KING: Thank you, Kaitlan.
COLLINS: Really appreciate you.
Thanks for joining us.
"NEWSNIGHT" starts now.
