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The Source with Kaitlan Collins
Explosions Rock Middle East As War With Iran Escalates; Trump: Israel Did Not Force U.S. Hand In Iran Strikes; Now: Vote Count Underway In High-Stakes Texas Primaries. Aired 9-10p ET
Aired March 03, 2026 - 21:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[21:00:00]
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That's it for us. The news continues. The election coverage.
"THE SOURCE WITH KAITLAN COLLINS" starts now.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN Breaking News.
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KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, CNN HOST, THE SOURCE WITH KAITLAN COLLINS: And there is breaking news on several different fronts as we come on the air tonight.
In the Middle East, Iran has just hit another American target. This time, it's the biggest U.S. military base in the region, Al-Udeid, as the war is continuing to widen in its fourth night now.
Qatar says an Iranian ballistic missile struck the base a short time ago. But we are told that it did not cause any casualties.
This comes after an Iranian drone managed to also strike the grounds of the U.S. Consulate in Dubai today. It was on fire, as you could see here. Officials say no one was hurt there yet either.
And a source is telling CNN tonight that the CIA station in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was also hit on Monday, in another suspected Iranian drone strike on that U.S. Embassy.
What we are seeing is Iran's escalating retaliation, now forcing the United States -- United States to close embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Lebanon, indefinitely tonight, as the Trump administration is scrambling to secure military planes and charter flights to get stranded Americans out of the Middle East.
The other big breaking news here at home is it's Election Night, the very first primary elections of the midterms, in what is a key year for the White House and Congress here in Washington.
We're keeping a close eye right now on Texas, where most of the polls have now closed. Though Dallas County voting has been extended for one more hour, after there was some confusion among voters about the correct polling locations.
In the race for the U.S. Senate on the Democratic side. The State Representative, James Talarico is leading, right now, Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, with about 35 percent of the vote in. We're still watching those numbers incredibly closely.
And in the Republican primary, the incumbent Senator, John Cornyn is now leading with just over 30 percent of the vote in.
We find CNN's John King, where he always is on Election Night, at the Magic Wall with the latest numbers.
And John, obviously, these are two incredibly closely-watched races. What are we seeing in Texas right now?
JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR & CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And let's start, Kaitlan, with the Democratic Senate primary in Texas. Why? Because it's the first primary night of a very big midterm election year.
And one of the big questions is, Will Texas really be in play come November? We won't know that for some months. But we will know tonight who the Democratic nominee for Senate will be. As you mentioned, State Senator James Talarico, with a narrow lead right now, 52 percent to 40 percent -- 47 percent, if you round up. Jasmine Crockett, the Democratic Congresswoman, there. Long way to go though.
You noted Dallas had a -- they changed the rules in Dallas about where you vote, and so some of the voters were confused. The judge said, Let's keep the polls open a little bit longer to let people find a chance. So nothing there. Urban Dallas, Democratic stronghold, we have to wait there, it will have a huge impact on this race.
The largest county in the state is Harris County. That's Houston, and some of the suburbs around it. Congresswoman Crockett with a healthy lead there. But Mr. Talarico holding his own as you look out.
At the moment, when you're waiting for the bigger urban centers to come in. Let's just check Travis County, which is Austin down here. That's the fifth largest county in the state. Talarico, again, a state senator, he goes to work in Austin every day. He's running comfortably ahead there. He'll be happy with that. The Democratic Establishment County, if you will, the government Establishment County.
But we're still waiting on Bexar County. That's San Antonio. Still waiting on Dallas County there. So, a long way to go in terms of the big urban centers.
But if you look at these rural counties, up here are the smaller rural counties, that's where Talarico has built his early lead. The question is, Kaitlan, does it hold up when we get more votes in the urban centers? A very closely competitive race here.
These are two left-of-center candidates. They're not really different when it comes to the issues perspective, only modestly, but they're very different in terms of their stylistic approach to politics. So, we'll see who the Democrats decide to send up in November.
And then the question is, Who would that Democrat be running against? John Cornyn, long-time Establishment Texas Republican, who has become more Trumpy because he's had to, here in Washington. He's the incumbent, and he's ahead at the moment.
But three candidates in this race. If you don't get 50 plus one, you have a runoff in May. Ken Paxton, the State Attorney General, a cloud of ethics around him for years, and yet he's a big MAGA favorite. He's an election denier, like Donald Trump. Has helped President Trump with a whole bunch of lawsuits on big issues. Yet Trump has not endorsed in this race.
So, where are we? 44 percent to 39 percent. Congressman Wesley Hunt, again, a Trump ally. One of the reasons Trump didn't endorse. Three people who have been with the President in big fights there, running at about 14 percent.
If you look at it right now, in the major urban area, again, very close. This is actually a bit of a surprise to me. Houston, you have more Establishment Republicans, more college-educated Republicans. And Paxton is holding his own against Senator Cornyn at the moment. And you come up to Dallas County, and you look here, that's where Cornyn has a bit of a lead.
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One of the things that Democrats argue, Kaitlan? This is what they argue -- and remember, in past cycles, they have said, We can make Texas blue. Is that some of these voters, your George W. Bush voters, if Paxton is the nominee, might say, Ha, can't do that. He's too MAGA. I'll go Democratic.
We don't know it'll be Paxton. Probably going to have a runoff there. But that's something we'll watch. Again, Texas, in our conversation, as we begin the midterm year vote count.
COLLINS: Yes, White House is watching that one very closely.
John King, we're going to be checking in with you a lot this hour. So, keep us updated.
And also, as we are keeping an eye on Texas, we'll bring you the results there as we learn more. As John King is at the Magic Wall.
We're also following that breaking news in the Middle East tonight. CNN's Erin Burnett is joining me now from Tel Aviv.
And Erin, obviously, we've seen all of this happening, with the retaliation ratcheting up, the questions for the White House about what this looks like and what could happen next. What's the latest that you're seeing on the ground tonight?
ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, so we've been seeing right now, as we speak, a heavy onslaught on Tehran. The Israelis say there's a new offensive. United States saying, as well, lots of strikes. They're also coming out, Kaitlan, and saying there's been about 2,000 strikes just by U.S. forces in, they say, the 100 hours since this war began. So starting to put some of that out.
Also just coming in, in the past hour or so, an update on what the U.S. says it's done to the Iranian Navy, saying that they've taken down 17 ships. And they say there's not a single Iranian ship left in the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Persian Gulf. So that's what they're saying right now. Also saying that there's been Iranian strikes coming back. And certainly, we've seen that here tonight, in Tel Aviv, several waves of strikes.
Although we've also seen that, as you pointed out, Al-Udeid Air Base, we understand what is, of course, the largest military base for the United States in the Middle East, and that was hit by an Iranian ballistic missile just within the past couple of hours.
So, all of this, if you look at the time zones here, all happening well after midnight, on this Wednesday morning, where we are. But right now, the focus that we understand, of the U.S. and Israeli strikes, is primarily on trying to destroy the launch pads, Kaitlan, where Iran is still successfully launching some of those ballistic missiles and drones.
And they are actually putting out a number here. They're saying there have been 500 ballistic missile strikes by Iran, around the Middle East. Obviously, mostly here. But UAE, second. Since the war began. And about 2,000 drones. And those drones, Kaitlan, have been very targeted and very accurate. When you talk about the U.S. Consulate in Dubai that you just mentioned, when you talk about hotels where U.S. service members may have been staying on specific floors, the Iranian intelligence has been accurate.
But no doubt, their ability to wage the war has been degraded. But the sense that I'm hearing from Iranian officials, that sort of bolstering, ready to go. They are very much in this and, they believe, for the long haul.
COLLINS: Yes, and obviously the White House is trying to shut that down and blunt that.
Erin, please stay safe. Thank you for that report.
I'm also joined now tonight by someone who served as a Naval Reserve intelligence officer in Afghanistan, ran for president in 2020, and served as President Biden's Transportation Secretary. Pete Buttigieg is here. And thank you, sir, for being here.
Because obviously, a key question as to what's playing out and all that retaliation by Iran, that Erin was just talking about, is how Americans in the Middle East are supposed to get out and what's happening. And when the President was asked today, why there was no evacuation plan, he told reporters, quote, Because it all happened very quickly.
I wonder what you think stranded Americans make of that answer.
PETE BUTTIGIEG, FORMER TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY: Well, it's unacceptable. When the U.S. government is telling Americans they need to get out of these Middle Eastern countries, then the U.S. government needs to be helping them do that.
And this is obviously timing that was decided by the President of the United States. So, it's not as if the U.S. government, the administration, didn't know this was coming. And look, though -- the world knew something was coming, because of the military buildup. So, the idea that only now are they coming up with plans to evacuate Americans makes no sense.
You know, there have been many previous instances, including the aftermath of October 7th, that was something that the U.S., of course, did not know was coming. And still, within days, was mobilizing, very quickly, to get Americans out of the region.
And here you have a case, where there is a war of choosing, a war of choice, launched by the President of the United States, on the timeline that this administration chose. And only now are they thinking about how to evacuate the Americans who are in harm's way? It just makes absolutely no sense.
COLLINS: Well, and as far as internally in Iran. The President has been saying, It's time for the Iranian people to take over. Today, he was saying, Not yet, because it's not safe out in the streets.
You're someone who previously supported working with the Kurds in Syria. There's this plan that CNN is reporting on that the CIA is considering arming Kurdish forces to help with a potential ground invasion -- ground invasion in Iran. Is that something that, when you hear it, you think is a good plan, a doable plan, something that's achievable?
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BUTTIGIEG: Well, we don't know much about that plan. I think it raises a lot of questions, especially given the lack of regard for planning that the administration has shown up until now. And it's clear on a broader sense that there is not a clear plan for achieving the mission, because the government -- the President can't tell us what the mission is.
What we do know is that Americans are paying the cost for this already. First and foremost, of course, the service members, some of whom have already given their lives in this conflict. And then, more broadly, the entire American people, the American economy. Gas prices are already up, and that's just the beginning of the likely inflation that will be triggered by this. And just the diversion of resources and attention.
You know, I happen to be in Eastern Pennsylvania right now, I was talking with local officials, describing the impact of the effect here in this region, when funding for Meals on Wheels was being cut, funding for aides in classrooms being cut, by an administration that says that, We can't afford that.
And meanwhile, we've got billions being sent into the Middle East for a war whose mission, according to this administration, seems to be changing by the hour. This gives me very little confidence that they can plan anything at all.
COLLINS: Yes, and obviously, affordability has been a key concern for voters.
One thing we've heard from the administration on this front and on the criticism they faced by Democrats over this is, they say, Well, what were we supposed to do about Iran? They were trying to get a nuclear weapon. They have all these ballistic missiles.
You talked about Iran, when you were running for president in 2020. I want to remind people about your viewpoint then.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUTTIGIEG: Ensuring that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons will, of course, be a priority, because it's such an important part of keeping America safe.
ABBY PHILLIP, CNN HOST: Mayor Buttigieg, to be clear, would you allow Iran to become a nuclear power, yes or no?
BUTTIGIEG: No. Our security depends on ensuring that Iran does not become nuclear.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: You also told The New York Times then, that it wasn't just the nuclear program that was concerning, or the nuclear potential. It was the ballistic missile program, malign behavior, threats to Israel, human rights abuses. Some of those are the same things President Trump has cited. So, how do you think that they should have handled this differently?
BUTTIGIEG: Well, I believed those things now, and I believe them -- I believed them, then, and I believe them now.
Look, Iran has been a particularly malevolent actor. And that's why, under the Obama administration, they figured out a way to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons without having to fire a shot.
Look, we should have no illusions about the Iranian regime. And this is personal for me. When I was in Afghanistan, any time that we were taking our vehicle outside the wire, when I was driving a vehicle between Kabul and Bagram, I knew that the IEDs, that were the greatest threat to the lives of me and everybody in my vehicle, could contain what were called EFPs, explosively formed projectiles, that were killing American troops left and right, that could have killed us. And that were supplied by the Iranians. They were a gift from the Ayatollah. So, we should have no illusions about the Iranian regime.
The question is, is it a smart move for the United States to launch a war, committing American blood and treasure, to overthrow a leader, especially when there is no plan or vision for what will come next. It's not even clear that this President is determined to overthrow the regime versus just kill some of the leaders, while the broader regime remains intact.
There are other ways to keep America safe. And what we have learned -- what we have learned, frankly, the hard way, in my lifetime, is launching a reckless, chosen war when that is not your only option, can unleash chaos that makes Americans even less safe.
COLLINS: Can I also get your take on -- as we're following that and what's happening in the Middle East, and I mean huge questions about what comes next. We're also following what's happening here politically at home. You talked about speaking with voters today, and what the midterms are going to look like. It's a key concern for everyone here in Washington.
We're watching the results come in, in Texas, where Democrats have not won a statewide race, as you know, since 1994. Do you think that your party can break that 32-year drought?
BUTTIGIEG: I certainly think that it's possible. I have been in so many areas that lean conservative, that are more open to the message that Democrats are bringing, not because everybody suddenly moved to the left, but because they see that this President has broken all of the promises that he made to his own base.
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He said, No new wars, no regime change. And now he's launched this war. He said he was going to come in and lower prices. He has taken actions that have directly increased prices, like making all of us pay the tariff, the tax that he slapped on so many goods, about a $1,000 a household going to that just in the last year. And taken other actions that have made it more expensive to try to get by in this country.
Now, that is not a solution for Democrats. It is an opening for Democrats, because we can talk about a better, different vision. And the leaders I see stepping forward to do that are really getting a lot of traction.
Again, just in the last couple of days, I've been in Pennsylvania's Seventh and Eighth Districts, currently represented by Republicans, where there are Democratic candidates, Bob Brooks and Paige Cognetti, who I think have a very strong chance of defeating those incumbent Republicans. Because, they're speaking to the issues that are on people's minds, and they're even speaking to people who would consistently vote for a Republican president were saying, Hey, this presidency is out of control. We at least need to have some kind of balance, some kind of checks and balances in our government, at a time like this.
COLLINS: Pete Buttigieg, we'll see what the voters in Texas decide tonight. Thank you for joining us tonight. I really appreciate your time on both of these fronts.
BUTTIGIEG: Thank you. Appreciate it.
COLLINS: And we'll continue to bring you the breaking news out of the Middle East. And what exactly the Secretary of State said today, versus what the President said, when it comes to why the United States launched this war now. President said one thing today. That seems to contradict what we heard from Rubio yesterday. We'll let you listen to both.
Plus, we're also continuing to watch the votes in Texas. The President has not endorsed a Republican in a very competitive race. What's going to happen here?
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COLLINS: We are continuing to watch the election results come in, in Texas, in the very first primary elections of the midterms. You can track the latest vote count. We'll show it at the bottom of your screen, as we're going to bring you any and all race projections as we are ready to make them, with John King, back at the Magic Wall, watching those numbers for us.
Also here in Washington today, in the Oval Office, President Trump said this about Iran, offering a different explanation, a very different explanation, for why he ordered these strikes and this war on Iran now, compared to what we have heard from top officials.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REPORTER: Mr. President, did Israel force your hand to launch these strikes against Iran?
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: No.
REPORTER: Did Netanyahu pull the United States into this war?
TRUMP: No, I might have forced their hand. You see, we were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first. They were going to attack. If we didn't do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Now the reason the President was asked that question, if Israel had forced his hand here, is because of what the Secretary of State told reporters, on Capitol Hill, yesterday.
Listen to what Secretary Marco Rubio said in his own words today, after the President had made those comments inside the Oval Office, versus what he said yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARCO RUBIO, UNITED STATES SECRETARY OF STATE: Somebody asked me a question yesterday -- did we go in because of Israel. And I said -- you asked me that, you, that follow up. And I said no. I told you this had to happen anyway. The President made a decision, and the decision he made was that Iran was not going to be allowed to hide behind its ballistic missile program, that Iran was not going to be allowed to hide behind its ability to conduct these attacks. That decision had been made.
We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.
And more deaths.
We went proactively in a defensive way to prevent them from inflicting higher damage.
Obviously, we were aware of Israeli intentions and understood what that would mean for us, and we had to be prepared to act as a result of it. But this had to happen no matter what.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: My congressional source is a Democrat from Arizona who served as a Marine in Iraq, and sits on the Senate Homeland Security Committee. Senator Ruben Gallego.
And thank you for being here.
SEN. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-AZ): Thanks for having me.
COLLINS: Do you think Secretary Rubio is saying the same thing today as he said yesterday?
GALLEGO: No, look, Secretary Rubio is doing CYA at this point. He knows, and President Trump knows, that the MAGA base is pissed. They're mad that they elected somebody who said they're going to keep them out of wars. And now, they're following another country into war. And so, they're trying to remake it.
But nothing we've seen, by the way, in any type of intelligence, both open source or in classified settings, has told us that there was any imminent attack coming from Iran on U.S. forces. They're not (ph) just trying to do a full takeback.
The problem with this is that it tells us what's the mindset of this administration, and it really tells us how dangerous this is. They didn't think this thoroughly. They put our men and women at risk. They put our allies at risk. We're seeing the results of that, with already six dead. We have embassies that are being bombed right now. We have -- you know, a CIA station was just bombed. Because they did not follow through all the proper procedures you should do before you go to war.
And instead of actually doing things the right way, doing things in the national interest of this country, we followed Israel to do this. And I think now we're all seeing the results of that.
COLLINS: What were your takeaways from the briefing today with Senator -- with Secretary Rubio?
GALLEGO: Without going into the classified -- into some of the classified portions of it, the most important thing that I came -- that came away from this was, number one, we don't have a plan to how to get out of this. We don't actually have a concept of victory. We -- you know, our justification for going into the war is entirely different from what we're hearing from the President right now. Again, this is even after the President went publicly and spoke to that.
And that all is a very scary situation. Like, for me, as somebody that had to live through some really bad decisions in 2005 that the -- you know, the then administration did. If we don't know how we can get out of this war, we don't know what the actual victory is, we're seeing potentially a long-term war. The President has not been very clear how -- when it ends. And more importantly, the American public does not want this right now.
COLLINS: Well, there's also a question of who is going to run Iran. Obviously, the Supreme Leader was killed. So were a lot of his top aides. They're trying to figure out who their next leader is going to be.
And I want you to listen to what the President said today when he was asked by reporters about this very prospect.
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REPORTER: Do you have someone in mind right now? Because you said, all the people you have in mind have been taken out. What do you think--
TRUMP: Well, most of the people we had in mind are dead, so. You know, we had some in mind from that group that is dead. And now, we have another group. They may be dead also, based on reports. So, I guess you have a third wave coming in pretty soon. We're not going to know anybody.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GALLEGO: I mean, look, the man is joking about something that has some very severe consequences. And--
COLLINS: He might not be joking. They might all actually have been killed (ph).
GALLEGO: Well, I mean -- no, I don't disagree. But the problem is, he's joking about a very serious situation. And it's our boys and girls that are suffering from this lack of planning, lack of thought, just like knee-jerk reaction just to follow whatever Netanyahu says, and it's not in the best interest of this country.
And more importantly, this is such a distraction. America is hurting right now. I talk to Arizonans all the time. They can't buy a house. Rent is getting expensive. Food's expensive. And what are we doing? We're spending billions of dollars on a war of choice, a war of choice right now that this country does not want. What the people want, what the country wants, is a country that's going to benefit and look out for their benefit, not for other countries' right now.
COLLINS: If the Pentagon asks for more funding for what's happening, would you support it?
GALLEGO: I'm going to say that, in my opinion, I want to see at least 50 percent of that money has to come from the Gulf States and from Israel. We cannot continue to cut Medicaid--
COLLINS: So, if the Pentagon comes to you and asks for more funding for this war--
GALLEGO: Yes.
COLLINS: --you're going to say, 50 percent of it must come from those other countries?
GALLEGO: Those other countries. We're using our stockpile, we're using our taxpayer money, to protect those countries. At the same time, we're cutting Medicaid, we're cutting food stamps. People are hurting. We cannot keep doing this. We use our treasure, we're using our men, to protect these countries. They need to throw in and have skin in the game too.
COLLINS: Senator Ruben Gallego, thanks for joining us on set tonight.
GALLEGO: Thank you.
COLLINS: Really appreciate that.
And I should note. We just mentioned the four of the six U.S. service members who were killed in an Iranian drone strike in Kuwait on Sunday. The Pentagon has now identified them. That means their families have been notified. They are: 35-year-old Captain Cody Khork. 42-year-old, Sergeant First Class Noah Tietjens. 39-year-old Sergeant First Class Nicole Amor. And 20-year-old Sergeant Declan Coady. All four of them served in an Army Reserve sustainment unit out of Iowa.
The other two soldiers who were killed in the strike that we confirmed have not yet been identified. But obviously, our condolences go to their families and their loved ones. May their memory be a blessing, and may they rest in peace.
Up next. We're going to continue to follow the latest out of the Middle East, as we are learning more about the retaliation from Iran.
We also have a live look from the Talarico campaign headquarters in Austin, where the votes are still being tallied and counted in a hotly-contested Democratic Senate primary race, and also Republican one as well. My political sources are here next.
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COLLINS: That is the Election Night Music, as votes are coming in, in a critical Senate primary race in Texas. It has major implications for the upcoming midterm elections.
On the Democratic side, the State Representative James Talarico, right now, is leading Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett with about 44 percent of the vote in.
In the Republican primary, the incumbent Senator John Cornyn is leading with just about 46 percent of the vote in.
John King is at the Magic Wall.
John, what's the latest that we're seeing?
KING: A lot of people in Washington expected Congresswoman Crockett to win this race, not run away with it, but win this race. She's trailing at the moment.
That's a pretty healthy margin at 44 percent. But, and it's a very important but, Kaitlan, as we watch this race -- and why are we watching a Democratic Senate primary in red Texas, right? Well, this is the year, this midterm year, where Democrats think, possibly, depending on how that Republican race goes, we'll get to that in a minute, they might be competitive here, in the Senate race, and maybe even a few more House districts than Republicans would imagine.
But where are we in this Senate race? 53 to 46. If you round up at this very important point. They kept the polls open in Dallas County for a couple extra hours. The precinct rules were changed this year. People were confused when they showed up to vote, they were told they were in the wrong place. So, they did the right thing. They left the polls open, let people find their right place.
Why is that so important? Well, this also happens to be number one, the second most populous county in the state, Dallas County, it also happens to be where Jasmine Crockett has a congressional district, so she should have a base of support in this area. Her district is out here, heading out toward Fort Worth. So very important that we wait, before we can know the full direction of this race until we get some votes from Dallas County.
But as you see it, a pretty competitive race. She is -- Congresswoman Crockett, leading by a pretty comfortable margin in the largest county, that's Harris County. Houston here, the suburbs. This is the fastest growing part of the state, big African American community, huge Latino community, critical to the Democrats in a primary, and critical, of course, as we go on to November. So, let's watch as this one plays out.
Two candidates, left-of-center, very different in their stylistic approach to campaigning. Texas Democrats deciding who do we think could be our best chance against one of these Republicans, come November?
John Cornyn, you know him well from covering the White House. He's an ally of Trump, but he's not very Trumpy. He's tried to navigate the Trump years, you might say. He's leading in this race. But Ken Paxton, the State Attorney General, who is very MAGA and very Trumpy, has helped Donald Trump with many lawsuits, including denying the 2020 election results, which we know is not true, but he is up 43 to 41, if you round up. Congressman Wesley Hunt at 13 percent. What does that tell you?
[21:35:00]
Well, we're only at 46 percent, so we have a lot more votes to count. But as you've watched this one play out, over the last hour, you need 50 percent plus one to avoid a runoff. It looks like, we're not there yet, but it looks like Cornyn and Paxton will be in the runoff that Republicans understand is going to cost them a lot of money and maybe a lot of blood.
COLLINS: Yes. And if Wesley Hunt had not been in this race, I mean, do you think we'd still be potentially facing that runoff? Or what would that look like?
KING: If you have two -- I mean, the question is, do you have a lesser candidate, if you will, a fourth or a fifth? Sometimes, you have four or five, six candidates on the ballot, and some of them are there to make a statement, or they run every year. He's a credible congressman. He's getting 13 percent of the vote there. He's also a Trump ally there.
You have two candidates. That's why the Democrats, we're not going to have a runoff. You have two candidates, someone's going to get to 50 plus one.
Have you had Cornyn versus Paxton, I suspect somebody would get 50 plus one, but we don't know that, because it's not what we got.
COLLINS: It's not. We will see what we get out of this tonight.
KING: Yes.
COLLINS: We're going to continue to check back in with John King at the Magic Wall.
KING: Sure.
COLLINS: All my expert political sources are here with me.
And Xochitl, I do want to note, as we're talking about the dynamics of this race, your sister is a Democratic candidate for governor in this.
XOCHITL HINOJOSA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER DNC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, FORMER DOJ DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS: That's right.
COLLINS: But in terms of where this is standing for the Republicans. I mean, I wonder how you two are feeling about this as you're looking at where this race is shaking out tonight. Shermichael--
SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: A little jittery one, because I don't want a runoff, number one. Number two, I don't want my party to have to spend $200 million or $300 million trying to protect that seat.
I think the primary focus for my side right now is to diminish, as much as we possibly can, what I think will likely be a Democratic takeover of the House. There are a number of districts that the President did not win. I think Democrats will probably win some of those. And there are some districts that the President did win by a large enough margin that puts some of those congressional districts in play for Democrats. I want those dollars spent there, not on one Senate seat.
COLLINS: I mean, and the White House is watching this so closely with that Senate race that John was just talking about. The Republicans, the President took all three -- he was with all three of them in Texas, last Friday. He has not yet endorsed any of them in this race.
KEVIN MADDEN, ADVISER, MITT ROMNEY'S 2008 & 2012 CAMPAIGNS, SENIOR PARTNER, PENTA GROUP: Yes, and well I have the same worries that Shermichael has, the amount of money that's going to have to go into this during a runoff.
But also, what we've seen over the last couple weeks is the attitudinal and sort of ideological shift inside the party. And when you have a runoff, that's going to even come close -- that's going to come further out into the front of this campaign.
And that'll be a problem, I think, especially when this is going to be an election, if we do have to go up against somebody like Talarico in a general election, it's going to still be fought in the big middle. And you don't want to have to have that type of fight split the party.
So, an endorsement from Donald Trump for one of those candidates obviously would make a huge deal, and actually could save a lot of money.
COLLINS: Yes, I talked to someone in the White House, who said basically all three camps were saying, Here's our polling, we're in the best position to beat the Democrat in this race.
That is still the key question in terms of which Democrat it is that is going to be going up against--
KAREN FINNEY, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, SENIOR ADVISER, HILLARY CLINTON'S 2016 CAMPAIGN, FORMER DNC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Yes.
COLLINS: --a Ken Paxton or John Cornyn, or whatever this looks like.
FINNEY: But that feels like vintage Trump. Let's wait it out until there's a runoff, and then go in and be the kingmaker, and try to be the one to sprinkle the magic fairy dust on the Republican primary. That's how he likes to do it.
COLLINS: I mean, what do you--
HINOJOSA: Yes.
COLLINS: But in terms of what it means for Democrats.
FINNEY: Sure.
COLLINS: There are questions for the implications. And John was saying, you know--
FINNEY: Right.
COLLINS: --in terms of the positions between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, it's not major differences. It's the style, though, and how they present--
HINOJOSA: It's--
COLLINS: --that is so different actually.
HINOJOSA: It's the style. And if you're looking at the map that John just pointed out right now, you'll also see a divide in the electorate.
FINNEY: Yes.
HINOJOSA: You see African American voters, and more diverse electorate, voting for Jasmine Crockett in places like Harris County. I'm sure Dallas County as well will kind of go her way.
But then you also see white voters, rural voters. You'll see Latino voters going for Talarico. If you look at South Texas, Cameron County, that used to be a Democratic stronghold. Now it -- Trump made it a Republican stronghold. Democrats are hoping, they believe that if they're going to flip Texas, they have to flip Cameron County, 92 percent Latino, back to the Democratic bucket.
And John King was just talking about, why are we talking about Texas in the first place? The crazy thing about it is, if you're looking at the early vote, Democrats are, I believe, outpacing Republicans. They did a 130 percent more than their 2022 vote total. While Republicans are at 60 percent of their vote total in 2022.
So, there is a lot of momentum in Texas right now, and this is why both sides are nervous.
FINNEY: Although -- yes, and I -- and I'd be curious to see how the primary is. But you know, God, we've been trying to win Texas for so long. HINOJOSA: This is the year, Karen.
FINNEY: This doesn't hurt. OK.
HINOJOSA: This is the year.
(CROSSTALK)
FINNEY: OK. Great. I'm with you.
MADDEN: Trying to kick--
FINNEY: I'm with you. Since I was a baby Democrat, which was a long time ago--
MADDEN: Trying to kick that football--
FINNEY: I know. I know. That's exactly it.
But here's the other thing that is interesting at the map. It's also where, who's bringing in new potential Democratic Party voters?
HINOJOSA: That's right.
FINNEY: And there's a question about, Are they Talarico voters? Are they Crockett voters? Obviously, there's a suspicion, if they are young African American voters, they are more likely to be for Crockett.
[21:40:00]
But for the long-time viability for the Democratic Party, it's the new voters that we could be bringing in, that I think, is as equally as important as who we might be able to flip back to our side of the column. So, we'll see.
COLLINS: Yes, big implications for both parties.
Everybody stick around.
We're going to check back in with John King at the Magic Wall because of the huge implications of what exactly this means. More results are coming in by the minute. An update, right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:45:00]
COLLINS: We are watching the votes come in, by the moment, for a critical Senate primary that is playing out in Texas.
John King at the Magic Wall.
John, obviously, everyone's watching these numbers, really closely, wanting to see what this looks like. We've seen how much spending has gone into this race alone. I was looking at this between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, he outpaced her by about five to one in ad spending leading up to tonight.
KING: Yes, I'm going to spread this out, if you want to keep -- this is what makes a lot of people at home just go argh about politics.
COLLINS: Yes.
KING: This is the most expensive Senate race in history.
$71 million spent just in favor of Senator Cornyn, the Republican incumbent. $71 million spent for one candidate who's probably going to be in a runoff, so they're going to probably have to do it again.
But then you look at the other races here. Pro Talarico, $24.3 million. Pro Crockett, $5 million. You see all this other money in here. It's a big state. It has some big media markets. But this is one of the things that disgust a lot everyday Americans about politics. They're thinking, Maybe there's a better way, better use for some of that money. This is what it gets you, though. It does get you votes in the results.
This is a fascinating Democratic race right now. James Talarico, State Senator, 53 percent. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett at 46 percent. When you round that up.
I was -- had my back turned when you came to me, because I just go in county to county, looking through. You go where the people are first, right? In a primary. Harris County is the number one population center in the state. Congresswoman Crockett, running it up there, 54 percent to 46, so a pretty healthy lead there in the biggest.
Number two is the one we don't have yet. It also is where her congressional district is. That's Dallas County. They left the polls open for a little bit because there was a confusion. They want to make sure everybody had a chance to vote. We'll see some numbers here soon. Based on the statewide math, she needs to run it up here at home to get herself back in this race.
You move over to the third most populous county. Her district stretches into Tarrant County, the Fort Worth area there. That's the third largest county, where you see she's winning 56 to 43, if you round that up.
But then it gets interesting. They're trading off in the Democratic constituencies. You come down here to Bexar County. That's San Antonio. Senator Talarico is running it up pretty good there. And I'll give you one more Austin, which is where the State Capitol is. Of course, that's Travis County. He's running it way up there.
So, the Democrats are kind of splitting the urban areas. Congresswoman Crockett needs the bigger ones. She needs -- she has Houston, and she needs Dallas.
One other interesting thing about the Democratic race. You were talking about this with your panel. This is a year where we're going to -- look, did Texas Republicans over-gamble on Latino votes? Donald Trump's numbers among Latinos went up all three presidential elections he ran in, including in Texas, where he got a majority last time. When they redrew the map, did they over-gamble?
Talarico is running well, down in the Rio Grande Valley. Those are Latino majority -- super-majority counties.
Another thing Talarico is doing, though, I just want to show you something on the map. See all this up here. So, we often ask ourselves, How does Donald Trump go from a big lead to a giant lead in these states that have big rural areas? Well, in the Senate Democratic primary, Talarico is winning in these small rural counties.
I just want to show you the 2024 map, just to give you the example of why I look at this. Not a lot of people live in these places. But this is how Trump goes from winning with 52 percent, 53 percent, to winning with 56 percent. He just trounces any Democrat in rural America.
That's part of Talarico's pitch. He's saying he can go into these rural areas and win back Trump voters, or get some Democrats who have given up, to come back out to vote. We don't know if that's true, but we're starting to see it play out a little bit in the primary.
Let me come back now to the Senate Republican race. Again, we're only at half, so I don't like to get too -- put the cart too far out ahead of the horse. But it looks like we're heading to a runoff here.
This Republican incumbent, John Cornyn at 43. The Attorney General, Ken Paxton at 41.
Congressman Wesley Hunt. Some will call him the spoiler. He says he was trying to present a different kind of approach to the race, if you will. At 13 percent right there.
And they're splitting it up. As you go through. There's nothing huge, if you will.
The only thing I would say is that Cornyn -- if Cornyn was going to get to 50 plus one to avoid a runoff, he was going to have to get George W. Bush Republicans, the Establishment Republicans, pre-Trump Republicans, to come out in huge numbers. He's winning in these areas. He needed it by bigger margins than that to get over 50 percent, Kaitlan.
COLLINS: Yes. Spoiler might be coming from the Senate Republicans who might have to spend a lot of money there between now and May, if there is a runoff.
SINGLETON: A lot more.
COLLINS: John king, we'll check back in with you.
And Kristen Soltis Anderson, you're looking at this. We were just talking about Latino voters in Texas, and what Republicans thought about how this could shape out. What do you make of what John King is looking at so far?
KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST & POLLSTER: Yes, I am especially focused on those counties in the Rio Grande. If Democrats are able to put up a candidate who is able to bring some of those voters back to the Democratic side? That will -- I mean, Texas is still Texas, right? It's still a very Republican state. I know you all were talking about it as Lucy with the football, before.
FINNEY: Yes.
SOLTIS ANDERSON: Very much so, a challenging place.
But I've been thinking a lot about the 2018 midterm lately. And remember in Texas, in 2018, you had Ted Cruz versus Beto O'Rourke. And I feel like there were some interesting parallels here.
[21:50:00]
Do Republicans wind up with a candidate who is more or less electable than Ted Cruz? Do Democrats in James Talarico wind up with someone who is better or worse than a Beto O'Rourke?
And then what does the political environment look like, if Latino voters in Texas and elsewhere, break away from the GOP that they had swung to in 2024? That will create some real headwinds.
But I think for Texas, you need all three of those things to be in place. You need a bad Republican, a good Democrat, and a good environment, if you even want to have a chance of Democrat.
COLLINS: I mean, Karen, you mentioned, you said you were a baby Democrat, I believe, the last time.
FINNEY: Yes.
COLLINS: I mean, we have video from 1988, the last time a Democratic senator was elected in Texas.
FINNEY: Yes.
COLLINS: When you look at this video of--
FINNEY: OK. So, 1992--
COLLINS: 1992--
FINNEY: Kristen, this--
COLLINS: That was -- that was when the last statewide race.
FINNEY: Yes.
COLLINS: But this is the last time there was a Senator elected. That is Lloyd Bentsen--
FINNEY: Yes.
COLLINS: --in 1988, as we're looking at there.
FINNEY: Yes, Lloyd Bentsen.
COLLINS: I mean, this is, though, a question that Republicans are playing into, saying -- John Cornyn today was saying on Fox that it's a possibility that a Democrat could win.
FINNEY: Hey, from John Cornyn's lips to God's ears, I'll take it.
COLLINS: Clearly--
(CROSSTALK)
FINNEY: I know, although he was saying it for a slightly different reason, right? A little bit more -- a different kind of electability reason.
I mean, I'm cautiously optimistic. I would love to see it happen. But yes, having been at the party, as Xochitl was as well, and having, you know, this has been something every cycle. And with Beto, actually, it's a great comparison, because he's the one we thought could really go all the way, and then it didn't happen, so.
But look, I'll tell you what -- something that Xochitl mentioned last segment that was really important, that's exciting. Just to see the turnout on the Democratic side is very exciting. Because for so long, Democrats and Texas, we just kind of wrote it off as to say, There's no way, we can't win. And so, to see this kind of turnout is a positive.
So, I also think about the longer-term. Even if we can't do it this time, which every -- obviously, everybody's going to do everything we can to win. It means longer-term, we are building up the party, and we're showing some electoral strength, that we haven't really flexed that muscle in quite a while.
SOLTIS ANDERSON: That's right.
HINOJOSA: And also, I just want to say on the issues and Latino voters. One of the things, and why Trump won Latino voters, last time around, is because they were -- he was talking things about the border. He was slamming Joe Biden about how our border wasn't secure. Cameron County and down there, they don't want an open border. They would like a secure border. That resonated with them, as well as his message on the economy. And so now that we've seen him shut the border down.
We've also seen James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett talk about how they want border security. They want to make sure that if they're in office, that they end up voting for more border security. At the same time, they want humanity.
And some of the ICE raids and things that have happened in Minneapolis, people see that in Texas, and they're like, We don't want our friends and family deported, but we also don't want open borders.
And I think that's also where Democrats are making inroads and starting to change their messaging, which I think will be interesting if that sticks, going into 2028, and we see people fight it out in the Democratic primary, whether we try to go for those Latino voters like that.
SINGLETON: One group that I think is really interesting here. Hispanic men. Black men.
HINOJOSA: Yes.
SINGLETON: Trump received double digits among black men in Texas. Does the Senator get those numbers? Does the Congresswoman get those numbers? I'll be curious to see.
COLLINS: That's a good thing to watch. We'll obviously be taking it all in, and continuing to watch these votes come in tonight, and see if we get any projections in the next few moments.
Up next. You have to see this. It was the Homeland Security Secretary testifying on Capitol Hill today. She was being grilled not just by Democrats, but also a Republican who said he thought her leadership was a disaster.
[21:55:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Homeland Security Secretary, Kristi Noem, was grilled on Capitol Hill today. But not just by Democrats. Several Republicans also asked her tough questions about the surge of ICE agents, in cities like Minneapolis.
And Senator Thom Tillis, the Republican of North Carolina, who is retiring, even compared her decision-making to the time that Kristi Noem acknowledged she had killed her young dog.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. THOM TILLIS (R-NC): What we've seen is a disaster under your leadership, Ms. Noem, a disaster.
The fact that you can't admit to a mistake, which looks like under investigation, it's going to prove that Ms. Good and Mr. Pretti probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back.
You decided to kill that dog because you had not invested the appropriate time in training. And then you have the audacity to go into a book and say it's a leadership lesson about tough choices? It's in your book. We could play it if we had time. At that same lunch hour, you killed a goat.
My point is, those are bad decisions made in the heat of the moment. Not unlike what happened up in Minneapolis.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: He's retiring. But also, Republican senator, John Kennedy of Louisiana, pressed the Secretary on a multi-million dollar ad campaign that prominently featured the Secretary, telling migrants to go home or face deportation.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KENNEDY (R-LA): The President approved ahead of time you spending $220 million running TV ads across the country in which you are featured prominently?
KRISTI NOEM, UNITED STATES SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY: Yes, sir. We went through the legal processes. Did it correctly. Worked with OMB--
KENNEDY: Did the President know you were going to do this?
NOEM: Yes.
KENNEDY: He did?
NOEM: Yes.
KENNEDY: OK.
NOEM: And one thing, Senator, I think would be helpful to know is how effective that communications has been, that overwhelmingly--
KENNEDY: Well, they were effective in your name recognition. I mean, I personally just -- I mean, to me, it puts the President in a terribly awkward spot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[22:00:00]
COLLINS: Secretary Noem will be back on Capitol Hill, tomorrow, to face questions before the House Judiciary Committee.
Thanks so much for joining us tonight.
"CNN NEWSNIGHT WITH ABBY PHILLIP" starts right now.
