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CNN Sunday Morning

Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Discusses Possible Military Deployment in Afghanistan

Aired September 23, 2001 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Already four battle carrier groups and 40 U.S. ships are either in the Persian Gulf region or en route. However, the United States' military strike shakes up, President Bush is warning that Americans should prepare to make new sacrifices.

So how much, how big? Our next guest is warning that Afghanistan -- well, he says that Afghanistan is like Somalia only 10 times more volatile. So we turn to Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institute. He's a senior fellow there in Washington.

Good morning, Michael.

MICHAEL O'HANLON, THE BOOKINGS INSTITUTION: Good morning, Carol.

LIN: That is an ominous statement indeed for U.S. troops who are heading to the Gulf region. Explain that please.

O'HANLON: Well, I mean mostly the size and the inaccessibility. Of course, Somalia is on the coast and we could get to it relatively easily. And the key areas of fighting were relatively limited. They were major cities, Mogadishu in particular.

In Afghanistan, however, you're looking at a place that's full of mountains throughout much of its territory. The country is 50 percent larger than Iraq. It's the size of Texas. There is no way to get to it directly from the sea. Of course, Pakistan has said we can use their airspace but that doesn't mean we can use Pakistani territory for staging major ground operations.

LIN: All right, Michael, let's take a look at some of the resources -- complicated indeed. Let's take a look at some of the resources on the ground. I'm going to bring up a map for our viewers, which should show areas there in Afghanistan. The highlighted areas, green as well as red, show where the Northern Alliance has some hold in the country of Afghanistan.

How effective can they be? And how effective of a ground force can they be for U.S. troops?

O'HANLON: I think they have a good chance over time. For example, if you look back in Bosnia in the mid 1990s, we helped the Muslims and Croats with equipment and training. And over the course of about a year, the tide of battle really began to shift there. However, the Northern Alliance is small. It only has about 10 percent of the country. It's not made up of the majority ethnic group. It's primarily groups that are not seen as legitimate, potential rulers of Afghanistan. They've got a lot of work to do. We've got to work with them. I think we'll have to provide not just equipment and training but battlefield support and air power.

LIN: All right, well, from the Northern Alliance, we move to the resources of the Taliban itself. It does have military resources there albeit dated. And every expert I've spoken to says, frankly, the Taliban military is inept, certainly, nothing compared to the U.S. force.

O'HANLON: Well, it's true the Taliban could not stop us from seizing Kabul, the major capitol city, the other major cities in Afghanistan and the lowlands, the valleys, the plains. They cannot stop us from doing that.

However, if you want to go after Osama Bin Laden and his lieutenants or the top Taliban leadership, you've got to go up into the mountains. And up there, simple techniques of ambush, simple small weaponry can be very, very effective.

So I am not convinced that we can pull that mission off. I know we can seize Afghanistan's main cities and transportation arteries and low lands if we want to. I'm not sure we can go after Osama with any great confidence of success. And even if we get them, it's going to be at a price of many hundreds of American casualties.

LIN: And what about any great confidence with the element of surprise? I am sure that he is in a position to see some sort of coverage of U.S. forces gathering in the Persian Gulf region.

O'HANLON: Yes, that's right. And of course, we've been looking for him for years now. And ever since 1998, when he realized we could eavesdrop on his cell phone communications, he has used cell phones. And we have not found him basically since that time. We've had a little bit of intelligence here and there that we've -- maybe he had been seen a few hours before somewhere. We have not known reliably where he is.

Afghanistan is too big simply to apply military force across the whole territory with air power. You've got to have very good technical intelligence of where Osama Bin Laden is. It's our only hope of getting that.

LIN: Excuse me, Michael, a spokesman for the Northern Alliance just told our John King in Washington that Osama Bin Laden is in southern Afghanistan. He actually named a territory is that?

O'HANLON: Well, that's helpful. But again, it's probably a territory the size of a state like Maryland or Ohio. I mean it's not necessarily looking anymore for a needle in the size -- a haystack the size of Texas. But it's still a big area.

The Northern Alliance may or may not know where he is. The Pakistanis may or may not know. We're going to need their help. We're not going to find this guy with satellites. We're going to need the help of local forces.

LIN: Michael O'Hanlon, thank you very much.

O'HANLON: My pleasure, Carol.

LIN: Painting the picture in Afghanistan, it doesn't look too good right now. Michael O'Hanlon with the Brookings Institute. Much more news ahead, stay right there.

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