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CNN Sunday Morning
Interview with David Isby
Aired October 21, 2001 - 10:17 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: While U.S. commandos met only light resistance Friday night, what can American troops expect in the future as far as action on the ground in Afghanistan. For some insight on that we turn to David Isby. He is a special correspondent for Jane's Intelligence Review, and he is also author and expert on military conflicts in Afghanistan. Good morning to you sir, thanks for being with us.
DAVID ISBY, JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW: Good morning. Thank you.
SAVIDGE: Obviously, the Soviets had a very difficult experience in Afghanistan, and the United States had to have taken note as to what went wrong. Quickly, briefly, what were the major mistakes the Soviets made in their effort?
ISBY: Well, the major mistake the Soviet made was, they tried to impose a government on Afghanistan in Kabul and keep it there through force of arms. It was a very maximalist objective.
SAVIDGE: The United States obviously as we're seeing by this ground intervention by commando forces, has taken a page and learned from it. They don't plan at least initially to home large chunks of territory there.
ISBY: Yes, putting large chunks of troops in the ground only open up the chance for intense ground fighting and indeed the potential of setbacks on, like we experienced in Somalia in 1992 when we went searching for Colonel Adid, the Somali rebel leader.
SAVIDGE: Do you think there is a chance though in the future that the United States may try to go in and let's say control an airfield to use permanently as an airbase.
ISBY: It's very likely that the Islamic state of Afghanistan, the Northern Alliance who opposed the Taliban in Afghanistan's civil war will take and hold airbases for us to use. They already hold the small airbase at Chaghcharan (ph) . They may take one at Mazar-e- Sharif, another is being constructed near the Panshir valley.
SAVIDGE: How likely is it that the United States would rely so heavily on the Northern Alliance? Do they trust them for one and how much experience they have working with U.S. military? ISBY: The Northern Alliance does not have any experience in working with U.S. military forces; however, it would probably be a good idea to deploy Special Forces teams, the same people who worked with Syrian and Egyptian forces in the 1991 war, deploy them on the ground with the Northern Alliance. They're certainly part of the solution in Afghanistan, although, certainly not all of the solution.
SAVIDGE: Aside for manpower, what is that the Northern Alliance has that the U.S. would want?
ISBY: One thing they have is human, human intelligence that can help target moving targets. The most recent military action was relatively quote unquote "easy" because we were targeting the fixed target an airbase, a house. We could rehearse for days. If we're going to hit Osama when he is going from cave to cave, we need that human intelligence, human as it's called.
SAVIDGE: And they also obviously know the lay of the land. They know where the caves maybe. They know how to operate there.
ISBY: And more importantly any counter terrorist struggle is primarily a political struggle, and they're going to be part of the political future of Afghanistan.
SAVIDGE: What are the numbers you know of regarding troops in the Northern Alliance, and what equipment do they have, especially heavy equipment?
ISBY: Certainly there is a core of 10 to 15,000 good troops. Many of them came from Ahmed Shah -- late Ahmed Shah Masood's Panshiri forces and the old pre-'92 Kabul regime's central core. They have been getting new equipment from the former Soviet Union, upgraded T55 tanks with laser range finders, new rocket launchers.
They're making the transition from two years. Basically, defending against the Taliban and Osama's forces to having to shift over to the offensive. And they have to do this before November when the weather closes in North Afghanistan.
SAVIDGE: Obviously that and there is the looming issue of Ramadan. Thank you David Isby joining us from Jane's Intelligence Review. We appreciate the insights there.
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