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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Edward Rappaport

Aired November 04, 2001 - 08:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: We want to switch gears somewhat now, talk about Hurricane Michelle, to get an idea of what this Category Four hurricane could mean for Florida. And for that, we turn to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

And joining us this morning is the deputy director of Tropical Predictions Center, that is Edward Rappaport.

Good morning to you sir, thanks for being with us this morning.

EDWARD RAPPAPORT, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Good morning.

SAVIDGE: Well, Cuba obviously can't avoid this storm, but Florida perhaps could. What is the thinking that will happen with Michelle in the next, say, 24 hours?

RAPPAPORT: Well right now we are expecting that the center of Hurricane Michelle -- the core area with the strongest winds -- will pass over Western and Central Cuba during the next 24 hours. And that would bring the center of the hurricane into the Straights of Florida during the overnight hours, bringing hurricane-force winds close to, if not over, the Florida Keys, and tropical storm-force winds a little farther north along the southeast coast of Florida.

So there is a hurricane warning up for the Florida Keys, where a mandatory evacuation has been ordered.

SAVIDGE: Obviously, the land mass of Cuba can impact the direction and the strength of this hurricane. What else could have an impact in the next, say, 24 hours?

RAPPAPORT: Well, this is a very dangerous hurricane. It's a Category Four intensity. We expect that as the core of the hurricane moves over Cuba, we will be seeing probably a capping of the intensity during the next 12 hours or so. And then as it moves over land, some weakening will begin. We're also expecting that an increase in the westerly winds aloft, which causes shear over the storm, will also be negative for the intensity of the hurricane. And so we do expect some weakening to occur after the system passes over Cuba.

SAVIDGE: Give us an idea of what a Category Four hurricane can do when it strikes a land mass or a major urban area.

RAPPAPORT: Well, I think a very good indication of what a Category Four hurricane can do is what happened here in south Florida during Hurricane Andrew. Now, Michelle is slightly weaker, but still a very formidable hurricane; and one that's likely to cause devastating effects for Cuba and, unfortunately, some loss of life.

SAVIDGE: And once they pass over the island of Cuba -- I realize that your forecasting becomes more accurate as the time frame grows narrower -- is there still a chance, though, this storm could buck the trend and give Florida a real hard time?

RAPPAPORT: That is a possibility. And we're showing here now our forecast track that we oriented here. Here's Cuba, here's Florida, the center of the hurricane is located just to the south. Here's our forecast track for the next two to three days.

But there is some uncertainty in that forecast track, and so you can see that there is a chance for the system to be as far to the north as this white area extends, which would bring the strongest winds to near, or just offshore, the southeast part of Florida. And that's why we have these warnings in effect.

SAVIDGE: Obviously, we have our hands full with Michelle now, but looking beyond that, anything else there tropical storm-wise that may be brewing out there we should be concerned with, or is Michelle the end of the season?

RAPPAPORT: Well, we don't know what's the end of the season. But fortunately, at least at this stage, Michelle's the only thing to worry about. But it's significant -- and as we said, this is going to be a very rough day for Cuba; and southern Florida, the conditions are going to deteriorate during the next 12 to 24 hours.

SAVIDGE: All right. Ed Rappaport, thank you very much for joining us this morning, giving us an update on the position of Michelle, where she may be headed next. Thank you.

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