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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Yonah Alexander

Aired December 16, 2001 - 07:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: In Eastern Afghanistan, U.S. warplanes continue raining bombs on the mountainous Tora Bora region. B-52s have been hammering the mountain ridges, and the bombing became even more intense overnight. Eastern Alliance fighters, aided by U.S. special forces, excuse me, are focusing on al Qaida fighters in two valleys. The idea is to cut off their access to supplies. A possible escape route to Pakistan is blocked by thousands of Pakistani troops massed along the nearby border.

With anti-Taliban forces apparently making significant progress against al Qaeda forces -- reports this morning from The Associated Press that, in fact, they have taken over all those al Qaeda positions -- U.S. officials say they are concerned most of the terrorist network's leadership has escaped the assaults. Just where has the al Qaeda leadership gone?

Joining me to talk about it is Yonah Alexander, the author of "Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda." He joins me from Washington.

Good to have you with us, sir.

YONAH ALEXANDER, AUTHOR, "USAMA BIN LADEN'S AL-QAIDA": Thank you.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's first of all the -- with the report this morning from The Associate Press that the Eastern Alliance, at least one commander, is claiming that the Eastern Alliance has captured all those al Qaeda positions in Tora Bora. Would you lend a lot of credence to that report?

ALEXANDER: Well, of course we don't have any evidence to support that. But regardless, it's already a no-win situation. That is to say that if bin Laden and his associates are able to escape to Pakistan, for example, then again, his prestige is going to rise. He will be able to recruit more people, obtain funds, and also initiate operations against the United States and their allies.

O'BRIEN: Well, what you're talking about, then, is al Qaeda essentially setting up operations in Pakistan. Do you think that is very likely, Mr. Alexander?

ALEXANDER: Certainly, because they do have sympathizers and supporters in Pakistan. But you have to look actually at the global map, because the entire world is a front line. You are dealing, really, with cells around the world in at least 60 countries, including obviously, the United States. So even if bin Laden is apprehended or killed, they will continue with their operations.

O'BRIEN: But what about the Pakistani military that is massed on the border, there? Aren't they likely to stop the al Qaeda forces? Or are they likely to give them a free pass?

ALEXANDER: Well, it's very difficult to tell. It depends always, really at the border, and so there are very different ways of getting there. Perhaps they were in Pakistan already, some weeks ago. We still don't know.

O'BRIEN: Well, it's probably safe to say there aren't many safe harbors left for Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda. I'm curious what your thoughts are on whether the head of Pakistan, General Musharraf -- Pervez Musharraf -- is in a position right now to allow Osama bin Laden to occupy his country?

ALEXANDER: Not as a policy of Pakistan, clearly. But unfortunately, there are some elements there that support bin Laden. But again, perhaps he went somewhere else. And there are some other places around the world, including Somalia and South Yemen, for example. And there are some claims that even Iraq can become a shelter for him.

O'BRIEN: Oh, really? Iraq as well? Let me ask you this. What about the -- lot of talk about the South Pacific, and the Muslim countries there. Is that a likely destination for Osama bin Laden, do you think?

ALEXANDER: Well, possibly, if you talk about Indonesia or the Philippines, because obviously there are many elements there that support him and his cause.

And again, I think we're trying to focus on the individual and to shatter his mistake and so forth. As I said, it's a no-win situation, because if he is captured or is killed, clearly, he will become a martyr, and this would encourage others to join the forces. So it's not only a military issue, it is an educational issue. How to diffuse the theological elements from political conflict, and how to persuade millions of people around the world that his cause is not just, but evil.

O'BRIEN: All right. Clearly, what you're talking about here is the desire of many people to do what Osama bin Laden has advocated. If he and his top lieutenants are not calling the shots, if you will, there may be desire, but will there be the means, the ability, the money, the diabolical vision, if you will, to accomplish these terrible goals?

ALEXANDER: Absolutely. The vision is there, the dedication is there even without bin Laden, and some of his associates. It's becoming, actually, decentralized, the whole structure. In other words, you can have some local cell deciding to mount an operation.

And incidentally, terrorism is actually warfare on the cheap. It's very inexpensive to activate, and very difficult to counter. So actually, you don't need all these millions of dollars. And as you know, some of the operations were very inexpensive. For example, the attacks on the World Towers was about a half a million dollars.

O'BRIEN: All right, but taking aside the money value there -- required tremendous coordination and communication that would not lend itself well to a fragmented organization. So I guess my question is: Without that leadership, could al Qaeda pull off a World Trade Center- style attack?

ALEXANDER: Absolutely. There is no end to their imagination. But don't forget that there are independent groups like the Hamas, and the Islamic Jihad and the Hezbollah that Israel is dealing with at this point. (UNINTELLIGIBLE) in Pakistan who perpetrated the act in Delhi recently on the Parliament in connection with the Kashmir issue.

So basically they will have their own agenda. And you can go around the world and look at the Philippines, or look at the Indonesia, and so forth, and see that there are some local issues which, in a way, can develop without bin Laden himself.

O'BRIEN: All right. On that troubling note, we will bid you adieu. Thank you very much, sir. Yonah Alexander is the author of "Usama bin Laden's al-Qaida: A Profile of a Terrorist Network." Thanks for being with us on CNN this morning, sir.

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