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CNN Sunday Morning

Reporter's Notebook: The Latest Action in Afghanistan

Aired December 16, 2001 - 10:32   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Now, time for some perspective on our top story, the military action in Afghanistan, the search for Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda operatives. Joining us to take your questions and e-mails are Nic Robertson from Tora Bora, Major Garrett at the White House, CNN terrorism expert Peter Bergen in Washington and CNN military analyst General Wesley Clark.

I'm not sure where the general is.

Little Rock.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: He's in Little Rock, Arkansas, right, General?

O'BRIEN: In Little Rock, there we go. All right, he's somewhere out there. It's good to have you all with us.

PHILLIPS: He's at the map.

O'BRIEN: A ton of e-mails and the first one probably rightly goes to General Clark. This one comes from Linda.

"It seems that if bin Laden or any of his troops did get away, they couldn't have done if alone. How do we know we can trust the Eastern Alliance? Why are we standing back and letting them run the show now? And why aren't our aggressively searching the caves themselves?"

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Linda, you may have seen in some of the news reports that we've brought in more special forces in the area and they have moved more to the front of the battle. But remember, this is the country of Afghanistan and the Eastern Alliance wanted to get rid of these foreigners in the country, who brought so much destruction and pain to their country. So it's sort of a national alliance.

Obviously, there will always be issues of command and control in such an alliance. And if Osama bin Laden got away and some of his fighters got away, it's not necessarily through treachery. This is a rough, tough, area and we know from many, many examples of previous military encirclements how difficult it is to really cut off a force and prevent all communication, entries and exit from the outsides. It's very, very difficult to do so.

Don't draw any conclusions, but also, don't put your expectations too high. This is a very difficult phase of this operation.

O'BRIEN: All right.

PHILLIPS: This e-mail comes from Reen. Nic, I think we're going to direct this one to you. It says, "I don't get it. We've been told we have the capabilities of seeing a mouse on the ground in a wheat field from our satellites, yet, there's a possibility that several al Qaeda troops could have escaped to Pakistan even though we and the Eastern Alliance are patrolling the border?"

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's a long border. The mountains are very rugged, very steep. They're also very forested in places. So people can hide. The thermal imaging capabilities of some of the aircraft circling in the skies should be able to pick people moving through those forests.

And despite the fact that could commanders here are saying that the battle is over and al Qaeda may have fled, we are just now, within the last 10 or 15 minutes hearing multiple explosions coming from the mountains. What we can hear is that they're a little further away than they were, perhaps a little closer to the border with Pakistan, a little further south.

But it has to be said, this is some very, very rugged terrain and seeing in the nooks and crannies, seeing in the ravines and even the caves themselves is probably very, very difficult even for sophisticated surveillance equipment from the air. The best intelligence will likely come from people on the ground. And as General Clark says, a lot more special forces have been put in, have been moved to the front and have been working in conjunction with mujahideen forces.

It is nighttime here now and that again will aid any al Qaeda trying to escape. So surveillance is very, very accurate but there are still ways to evade it apparently.

O'BRIEN: All right, shift it now to Peter Bergen, our terrorist expert and the only expert on our panel who has actually interviewed Osama bin Laden. A pair of questions for you, Peter.

"Is there any evidence that Osama bin Laden has night vision capabilities to move around at nighttime?" That from Carl Doyon. And this one from Dale Freeson (ph). "How many armed individuals might be surrounding bin Laden and his inner circle, personal security if you will?

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: On the night vision stuff, you know, bin Laden and his followers were buying night vision equipment in the mid 80's. So of course, I mean the likelihood that they have that kind of capability now, I think is very high.

On the question of how many people might be around him at any given time, when we met with him in 1997 he had about 30 people in his immediate entourage and that also tracks with descriptions with other meetings that he has had. So I think the actual core number of people might around -- it might be a couple of dozen at any given moment. O'BRIEN: All right, a couple of dozen people, that should be fairly easy to see and this is good follow-up to that. This comes from Jim Lee in Ozark, Missouri. "If we have the surveillance from the air that we say we have, how could such a large entourage as would be required for UBL to move from one place to another, why wouldn't we see him?" General Clark, do you want to try that one?

CLARK: Well, let me try to explain it this way. The surveillance is very good, but it magnifies the images on the ground and that means that what you're doing is, we often say it's like looking through a soda straw at the carpet. If you point it at the exact spot and you have someone looking at it at that moment, you'll see a lot. But you can't see everything all at the same time. And especially in that rugged terrain, there are just chances that no matter how many aircraft you have and you may have one or two aircraft continuously orbiting, they don't see everything all at once. So it's still possible for possible to someone to slip through that.

PHILLIPS: All right, Major, we want to get you in on the mix here. And this question comes from John in Boston. "Assuming UBL has gone into Pakistan, how well equipped are we militarily, politically and from an intelligence perspective to pursue him in his escape mode?"

MAJOR GARRETT, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: (OFF-MIKE) experts on the military capabilities. Obviously, the political relationship between the United States and Pakistan is very strong right now. And any efforts by Osama bin Laden or any of his top leadership to move into Pakistan, the United States government would hope very strongly that the Pakistani government would not only resist, but if in any way came in possession of Osama bin Laden or any of his top leadership would notify the United States immediately and take concrete action to hold them until the United States could get here.

But one point I'd like to make about this entire range of e-mail questions. It points to one of the things the White House was concerned about as it was debating internally whether or not to release the tape of Osama bin Laden. Senior White House advisers knew the power of that tape, knew how it would create such a higher degree of revulsion and animus towards Osama bin Laden if that was, in fact, possible.

And I think we've seen in the public reaction that it was possible. People could come to despise Osama bin Laden even more than they did before. And the White House knew that that was going to dramatically increase the personalization of this combat, something the White House has been trying not to do, trying to say this is about al Qaeda. It's about global terrorism not about one man.

But the tape had such a dramatic effect on the public consciousness, there is the just incredible pressure to make sure the United States and its coalition partners get Osama bin Laden. And I think we're seeing that reflected in our e-mails this morning.

PHILLIPS: Speaking of we have e-mails, plenty of phone calls too. We're going to go to the phone now. Bijean (ph) on the line from Ontario, I believe has a question for Peter. Go ahead, Bijean.

CALLER: Hi, thank you. Good morning, first of all. I would like to know if there is any possibility that bin Laden might have gone to China from northeast of Afghanistan to seek protection from Muslim there.

BERGEN: Well, there is a border, a very small border between Afghanistan and China, but I think that's very unlikely that he would have done that. I do believe that he's decided to make his final stand. I think the notion of him trying to escape; I don't really believe that's going to happen.

Even if he did try to escape in Pakistan, I mean the government of Pakistan would pick him up very quickly. So I think he's decided to make his final stand and we may be seeing in the next couple of days the end of this whole affair.

O'BRIEN: All right, picking up from that point, let's send one to Nic. This comes from John. "Is the concern regarding a porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan that there is insufficient border coverage by Pakistani forces or that some among those forces may secretly support the efforts of al Qaeda and turn a blind eye and allow bin Laden safe passage out of Afghanistan?" Good question, John.

ROBERTSON: Well, number one, that border is in the northwest frontier province of Pakistan. Now, the northwest frontier province is an area that the government of Pakistan doesn't really fully control. Its writ of law really only extends to the main highways through that area.

However, Pakistan has taken some unprecedented moves to try and firm up that borderline. It has put in regular army troops. It has also put in local soldiers, local levees into that area and also, augmented them with Pakistani special forces so that Pakistanis are doing a lot to try and control that border area.

However, as hard as it is for surveillance from the sky, as hard as it is for U.S. Special Forces on this side of the border to pinpoint al Qaeda members, it is equally hard on the Pakistan side. The mountains, again, they are as rugged on the Pakistan side as they are here. They're very, very steep, almost vertical in places as you cross -- going southwards from here into Pakistan. So it is still possible even despite that Pakistan has border helicopter flights now patrolling that border, it is still possible to get through.

And on the issue of are there some sympathies within Pakistan's ranks, certainly within the tribal areas of the northwest frontier province, there may well be people with sympathies towards Osama bin Laden and that can't be ruled out within the military ranks either. Although, the Pakistan Army will know which troops it is putting in and will be aware perhaps where some of its weaknesses may lie in the areas of support for Osama bin Laden and others around him.

O'BRIEN: All right, Nic Robertson and the rest of our distinguished panel, stand by if you will. We're going to take a brief break, pay the rent and we'll be back with more "Reporter's Notebook" in just a bit.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: Once again, an intellectual discussion with our panel of experts -- Nic Robertson, Major Garrett, Peter Bergen and General Wesley Clark. We are talking about the hunt for Osama bin Laden. We're going to get straight to the e-mails once again. Warren Buford from North Carolina and we're going to direct this one to you, General.

"Assume bin Laden has escaped to Pakistan, what first tactical steps should we expect in the attempts to find him?"

CLARK: Well, I think if he's there, the question is how do we know that he's there. And so, maybe we'll have gotten reports of movement in there. I'd be very surprised if we didn't have some U.S. back up force and U.S. liaison with the Pakistani military. And if we can get word that he is in there, then we'll try to encircle him again. We'll get to the villages in the area. We'll work with the local people. We'll bring surveillance aircraft overhead. We'll blockade roads and we'll try to find the choke points and then we'll move house by house, village by village in a search for him, no doubt. The question will be will we know. And that will be the toughest part about this.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's send it around the horn to the North Lawn of the White House, Mr. Major Garrett. This one comes from Ray Wellborn in Dickinson, Texas.

"Given the dead or alive warrant for OBL, what trustworthy advice does our U.S. leadership have from Islamic scholars about how to preclude martyrdom for OBL and his top lieutenants?"

GARRETT: Well, it's an excellent question. And I would say that the White House has tried to deal with the underlying question of if Osama bin Laden is in fact killed by U.S. or coalition forces does that not create an aura of martyrdom around them and if so, what do you do with that?

And I can tell you based on my discussions with senior officials, their reaction is, look, we'll get to that point if we in fact get there. The crucial thing is the president has set a mandate for all military personnel, for all nations who are participating in this coalition -- get al Qaeda, get Osama bin Laden, get his top lieutenants. We'll worry about the martyrdom question later.

I think that the general operating assumption here at the White House is a complete defeat of the al Qaeda as has the Taliban has been defeated and bringing Osama bin Laden to justice however that's defined is in fact something that many will appreciate not only in the neighboring region but around the world. And the question of martyrdom is secondary to achieving that objective and proving the U.S. can under difficult circumstances, in difficult terrain operating with local and sympathetic military in Afghanistan, can in fact wage this campaign against terrorism. It's worth pointing out that when this all began there were many doubters saying can this really work, can the United States use bombing and entrenched local military with special forces to achieve its objectives. There were some who openly questioned if that could happen.

The president earlier this week at a speech in the Citadel said, "This is now a model for dealing with at least one type of warfare. It has worked. We've proved it's worked." I think the White House believes once that proof is there for all to see the question of martyrdom will recede -- Miles.

PHILLIPS: This one -- another e-mail from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, Pegi Thurston. Peter, we're going to direct this toward you or to you.

"If bin Laden is captured alive and brought back to the U.S. for trial, wouldn't this possibly cause a greater uprising throughout the Middle East and possibly more terrorist attempts in the U.S. because we would have custody of him?

BERGEN: Well, I think it's a very good question. I think the best outcome would be a trial of bin Laden, get everything out in the open, find out exactly what the plans were. I think the likelihood of a trial is very, very low, however. I think that he will die. He will be a martyr, but the first thing you can say about martyrs is they're dead. And at the end of the day, bin Laden is a lot less potent dead rather than alive.

So the martyrdom -- he will linger on as a martyr, but in the end, I think his legacy to history will be rather small.

O'BRIEN: Peter, just a quick follow up from me. The $25 million bounty on his head, that has got to ultimately lead to some sort of clue at the very least as to his whereabouts or am I mistaken?

BERGEN: Well, I think that -- you know, I think $25 million in Afghanistan is a vast amount of money and I don't think it's an accident that you're seeing a lot of Afghans going off after bin Laden very enthusiastically. The reward was rather well publicized. And the reward is also being publicized in Pakistan. So I think that you will find a lot people are more than willing to give information about bin Laden because it's a reward not only for bin Laden but also for his other lieutenants. It's well known.

O'BRIEN: All right, I did the math the other day. The average Afghan would work 313,000 years to earn $25 million. Let's take one final comment. This one a call from Joe Mckuchen (ph) in Ellijay, Georgia, the dean of our callers. Joe, good to here you.

CALLER: Miles, you're a great -- you do a great job. I would like to ask Nic, does he fear for his safety? He's doing a great job over there, but does he fear for his safety?

ROBERTSON: Most of the time, I think we're just fine. There -- when front-lines are shifting and forces are moving around and power is changing hands, those are the most dangerous times and we do have to take a lot of precautions, go with the fighters that we trust into areas that we haven't been to before.

Yesterday, we were in an area that we had been to before and we were with fighters that we knew. There were another group of mujahideen fighters who came up. They looked as if they were really like to take some money off of us. So we got out of that area quickly.

So do you have to be very careful even when you're with people you trust. You know, you can run into other folks along the way. And there are sometimes underlying threats made against us. Some of them can be taken seriously and some of them can be dismissed. We do have to take a lot of care here, however.

O'BRIEN: All right, that's a good point to end it on and we hope you take that very much to heart, Nic Robertson, you and the rest of our team on the ground there in Afghanistan. Thanks to all of our panelists Nic Robertson, Major Garrett, Peter Bergen and General Wesley Clark. Good questions and some good answers. We appreciate it.

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