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CNN Sunday Morning
How Will World Events Shape the New Year?
Aired January 06, 2002 - 08:54 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: It would probably be a cliche to say that this has been an incredible year, with all the events that we have seen and the things that have shocked us.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: And you wonder if anything is going to top all those events.
Well, as Garrick Utley reports, it's hard to foretell everything that will happen this year.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GARRICK UTLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Imagine a land where you can't get your money out of the bank or the economy and your future are collapsing around you or five presidents in three weeks have been unable to halt the slide. Perhaps in 2002 it's time to cry for Argentina.
(on camera): And what will 2002 bring for the rest of us? Argentina, like terrorism, like the questions hanging over the global economy, are reminders of why this year is already clouded by a sharp sense of apprehension of what lies ahead.
(voice-over): Even the leader of the strongest nation can offer no guarantees.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And the American people realize we have a new culture, and that is one of being vigilant.
UTLEY: Being vigilant against terrorists, which will keep American and other international forces in Afghanistan in 2002. And what will be the next target in this war? Go after Saddam Hussein, say some in the United States, while others ask, how? and at what price? Iraq is not Afghanistan.
And what about vigilance elsewhere in the Middle East? The old leaders of Israelis and Palestinians don't seem to have any new ideas of how to restore peace in 2002. Neither do outsiders, including the United States. And while the terror bombs go off, there is another explosion to think about: the ticking time bomb of youth. More than half of the Arabs today are under the age of 30. Demographics, coupled with discontent, can lead to more upheaval in 2002 and beyond. (on camera): So where is the good news? In this age of vigilance and vulnerability, let's remember how many of yesterday's enemies have become today's allies in fighting terrorism and trying to make the world a more prosperous place.
(voice-over): Example, China. In 2002, there will be a change of the old guard to a slightly less-old guard, as 59-year-old Hu Jin Tao (ph) is expected to take over as top leader. His job: to keep China's long march to economic prosperity and power on track. The growth rate there is expected to be a solid 7 percent this year.
In Russia, the future's looking slightly better. Economic growth is projected at a healthy 4 percent, as President Putin works to strengthen his ties with the West.
And as for the West, well, 306 million Europeans have a shiny new currency, the euro. They also have a weak economy.
And they're not alone. As the Japanese count their money, they may wonder what it will be worth by the end of the year, as they live through a recession and deflation that just won't end.
Which means that the U.S. economy -- battered, but still on top -- will continue to depend on consumers spending their way to slow recovery and overcoming a fear of flying, as they again venture out into the world. American optimism should help, and so should the good news of lower oil prices, projected to hover about $22 a barrel for the year.
(on camera): Of course, no one lives by oil, money or bread alone. The coming year will also be measured by how well we are able to make wherever we live a better town, city, nation and world. One judge of that is justice itself.
(voice-over): In February, Slobodan Milosevic will go on trial, charged with crimes against humanity in what was Yugoslavia. In the United States, all eyes will be on Zacarias Moussaoui, who will be tried in October for his role in the terrorism of last September. And, no doubt, the many of eyes of a media frenzy will follow the trial of Paul Burrell in London this coming week to again feed the public hunger for sensation. Who is he? He was Princess Diana's butler, charged with stealing hundreds of her belongings after her death.
In the end, though, for all of us, to look ahead in 2002 was to look into the unknown and the unknowable. All we can predict is that something out there that we cannot imagine today will happen, will mark this year as it did the last.
Garrick Utley, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
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