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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview with Celinda Lake, Bill McInterff

Aired January 27, 2002 - 07:40   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: America's financial picture should come into focus when President Bush delivers his state of the union address Tuesday. Right now, despite a nagging recession, Mr. Bush is enjoying an amazing approval rating. Well, can it last?

For some perspective, we're joined by Democratic pollsters Celinda Lake and her Republican counterpart Bill Mcinterff. Welcome you both to the program. We appreciate it.

CELINDA LAKE, DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Thank you.

BILL MCINTERFF, REPUBLICAN POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Good morning.

O'BRIEN: You know, it's interesting, when I just read that about Mr. Bush enjoying an amazing approval rating, can it last? That could apply to previous Mr. Bush, the one who the current Mr. Bush calls 41 for the 41st president. I'm curious with all that in mind, the person who maybe overlooked the recession on his mind, his father, how would you advise the president if you had the opportunity to be his speechwriter on this?

Celinda, why don't you go first? Ladies first?

LAKE: Well, thank you. I think you could quote a famous Democrat, it would be "it's the economy, stupid." And while he can use his accolades on terrorism and war, the 2002 elections are going to be decided by the economy. Watch for what voters think the attitudes in May and June are. That'll be determining the (INAUDIBLE).

O'BRIEN: Celinda, I'm going to give you a break to clear your throat. I had the same problem this morning.

Bill, let's send it over to you. You know, gosh, Bill Clinton's speeches, his state of the union speeches.

MCINTERFF: Right.

O'BRIEN: What were they, four, five hours long? Or so it seemed anyhow. Those -- just a laundry list of things he wanted to do. I don't suspect we're going to see that with George W. Bush?

MCINTERFF: No, I think President Bush's strength is to be broadly thematic. And he's going to talk about very, very big and important things. Number one, he's going to talk about -- I think he'll frame the reason we have to sustain our war on terrorism beyond Afghanistan and use that platform in Congress to do it.

Number two, he's going to talk about the impact of the terrorist economy, what it's meant for our economy, what he'll do to help, and the billions of dollars that'll be required in defense spending and homeland security.

And then I think lastly, he'll talk about one or two major items that he'd like to see in a domestic agenda. And I hope that it includes prescription drugs for seniors.

O'BRIEN: All right, but there's a difficult balancing act here. On the one hand, clearly, you know, the terrorist economy, as you (INAUDIBLE) it, the war against terrorism is something that the president probably wants to put front and center. Perhaps people are more interested in pocketbook issues though?

MCINTERFF: Well, I think that people need to understand the reason that our economy is struggling. And certainly the terrorist attack on September 11 is a contributor. And I think the president needs to explain where the money's going and what's required to keep this country safe.

And I think -- and that's the other thing I think John King just said in his report, that he will be talking about other efforts that he wants Congress to pass, to help improve the economy.

And lastly, by the way, we're seeing a surge again in consumer confidence after December. So I think we're already beginning to see consumers feel better and tell us they're feeling better about the direction of the economy.

MCINTERFF: Celinda, would you go along with that?

LAKE: Well, not exactly. I mean, 71 percent of the voters say that the economy's in recession. People are just trying to debate whether it's going to be a long or a short recession. And I think the Ford layoffs that John referred to, Enron, all make voters more pessimistic.

When you ask voters what they're worried about, this is as much a pocketbook recession as a jobs recession. And that means voters are concerned about rising healthcare costs, retirement security, how to pay for their children's college education, childcare expenses. And it's going to be a lot longer to deal with than just immediate, short- term unemployment.

O'BRIEN: Well, Celinda, aren't folks worried about terrorism though?

LAKE: They are worried about terrorism, but terrorism is receding. If you ask people what they are concerned about most right now, 38 percent say the economy. 15 percent say terrorism. If there were another attack, that would obviously change. And voters also want the president to be focused on terrorism, but they don't want him, like his father, to forget the economy.

O'BRIEN: Bill, this particular president makes it a point to say he doesn't pay much attention to opinion polls as it relates to how he governs. Nevertheless, do you suppose some of these numbers we've been talking about here this morning would come into play, as they decide how to weight the speech?

MCINTERFF: Yes, number one, I think that they recognize, and I think another really important element for the president is that today, despite the economy, six out of 10 people in this country say they think this country's going in the right direction.

Part of that is there's this enormous feeling of pride that Americans have in terms of how they feel we as a country have responded to the attack. And I think that's something the president needs to echo back to people and talk about that feeling of pride, community, and connection that we have.

And I think those are themes that he uniquely understands, given what he's done around the country and the campaigning he's done. And I think that's another element.

And you know, lastly, we're seeing something really of historic proportions. We've tracked presidential approval over 10, over three generations back to Pearl Harbor over 10 different international episodes. In all of those cases, presidential approval began a drop around month four after that first episode. So the fact that the president's sustaining 80 percent, 85 percent job approval, four months after the attack is really an enormous change over three generations of American data.

O'BRIEN: Yes, just a little word on symbolism and atmospherics here. Last time we saw the president address a joint session, it was right after the attacks. The celebrated embrace of Tom Daschle, leader of the Democrats. We're not going to see that kind of thing again, are we?

LAKE: Well, I think you'll still see an appeal for bipartisanship. And I think the president knows that the voters give him a lot of credit for changing the tone in Washington, although those of us who live in Washington wonder if it's really changed that much. But I think the major thing that he has to accomplish is to talk to voters about what he's going to do domestically. And they'll be a real challenge for him and a real test whether he wrests on his laurels, which is international and terrorism, or whether he talks about the economy and the domestic issues that are really starting to preoccupy the voters.

O'BRIEN: Bill, would you agree that the old Washington is back?

MCINTERFF: Yes. I mean, look...

O'BRIEN: (INAUDIBLE)?

MCINTERFF: Well, no, I think, you know, one thing that we saw is the Congress did come together very quickly after the attack to do the airport bill and one or two other measures. But the reality is, Republicans are down by a seat in the Senate. The House is up for grabs. 2002 is very, very important. And those are first -- those are the first instincts of every politician.

And then lastly, look, there are genuine ideological differences between the parties that we're fighting about in a very, very divided Congress. I think the president may well have also learned after this first year that to get stuff done, like the education bill, that was bipartisan, he and his administration will probably have to inject themselves earlier and more often in the congressional debate. And I would also believe we're going to see that in the next month or two months, as the administration tries to push these economic objectives in terms of a congressional stimulus package.

O'BRIEN: All right. That's going to have the be the last word. Bill Mcinterff, a Republican pollster, Celinda Lake on the Democratic side, thank you very much both of you for joining this morning on CNN Sunday morning.

LAKE: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: Thank you so much.

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