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CNN Sunday Morning

Will Tipper Run?

Aired March 17, 2002 - 07:12   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: All right. We're going to talk politics now. Al Gore courted her many, many years ago and now she's sparked the interest of Democrats in Tennessee and they're pouring on the charm and trying to get Tipper Gore to run for the Senate. CNN's Bruce Morton has some thoughts on whether Tipper even has a chance.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRUCE MORTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): She has a reputation for disliking politics, but she always seems to have a good time with the crowds and they like her. This was last month in Nashville.

TIPPER GORE, FMR. SECOND LADY: And it's a good night for the Tennessee Democratic Party. Thank you.

MORTON: So will she run? Might she run? One Democratic Party source says no way. But others say she's giving it serious thought. There is precedent, for sure, a former first lady.

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, FMR. FIRST LADY: I am honored today to announce my candidacy for the United States Senate from New York.

MORTON: The wife of the defeated presidential candidate.

ELIZABETH DOLE, SENATE CANDIDATE: I have decided to run for the United States Senate from the great state of North Carolina.

MORTON: How would she do? There's one potential Democratic rival. Congressman Bob Clement, a moderate, plans a Nashville news conference Monday to announce his plans. Democrat Congressman Harold Ford's name has been mentioned, but he hasn't said what he'll do. On the Republican side, former governor and twice-failed presidential candidate, Lamar Alexander and Congressman Ed Bryant, a strong Conservative, are running.

How would Tipper Gore do?

GEOFF GARIN, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER: She really conveys a real strong sense of family and family values that are important to independent voters and Republican voters, as well as Democrats. I think she's a person who -- the kind of person who could do well for Democrats in a state like Tennessee. MORTON: Most say she'd win the Democratic nomination and she'd raise plenty of money, but the state is increasingly Republican. The governor, the Congressional delegation, both senators are Republican. And George W. Bush beat Al Gore in Gore's home state 51-47 in the presidential election.

We know she takes good photographs. We know she can play the drums. We'll know fairly soon whether she wants to run for the Senate. The filing deadline, the last day you can announce your candidacy, is April 4th.

Bruce Morton, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

O'BRIEN: All right, politics, Tipper Gore...

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Ron Brownstein.

O'BRIEN: ... Ron Brownstein. Tipper Gore. No...

PHILLIPS: Connection. No, they're not connected.

O'BRIEN: It's a connection morning. We'll try to figure that one out for you. No, we're going to talk about the potential for a Tipper Gore candidacy. You know, the person, the senator who said she would be her most enthusiastic supporter is Hillary Rodham Clinton. Isn't that interesting?

PHILLIPS: Imagine that.

O'BRIEN: Yes, imagine that. That's one of the things we'll be looking at shortly.

PHILLIPS: We're also going to talk about severe, dry conditions in the Northeast. It's a cause for a major concern. And our Jacqui Jeras is going to bring us this story coming up.

O'BRIEN: And this may come as a...

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: All right, let's talk more about the potential Tipper Gore candidacy. Does she have the personal passion or the political clout to pull it off? Joining me from Washington to talk about this, Ron Brownstein, a CNN political analyst, who's also -- his day job is with the "L.A. Times."

Good to see you, Ron.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, we've heard a lot of talk and there's a lot of very strong efforts inside Tennessee to make this happen. I haven't seen anything on the record for Tipper Gore. What are you hearing? BROWNSTEIN: Well, the word from -- she's putting out a clear word through friends that she is considering this, I think, surprisingly seriously. I think most people probably think that on balance, we still have a better chance that she won't run than she will. But she is looking at it carefully. She cut short a trip to California this weekend, went home to Tennessee, is meeting with her family and friends, has talked to a number of Democrats both nationally and in Tennessee.

The fact that, as you mentioned before, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, went out so strongly praising the idea on Friday, on "INSIDE POLITICS" and elsewhere, I'd be surprised if she didn't have at least a little bit of nudge and a wink from Tipper saying it was OK to keep this notion moving forward or else, she wouldn't have been quite so aggressive in her comments.

O'BRIEN: You know, it's always interesting at these times to follow the real estate transactions. And the Gores are looking at purchasing a house in a Nashville, correct?

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah, that is correct. And you know, people have thought that that would -- and I still think that is mostly part of his effort to reestablish himself, Al Gore, in the state. He lost Tennessee in 2000.

You know, as you saw in the Bruce Morton piece, this is a state that has been trending away from Democrats. Clinton and Gore won it in '92. They won it barely in '96. They lost a lot of ground. Then Gore lost it badly in 2000. Two Republican senators, a Republican governor, a Republican majority in the House delegation. So even if Tipper Gore decides to run, she does have a -- she would have an uphill climb in a state, as I say, trending away from the Democrats.

O'BRIEN: Well, you know, but to lose your home state. That is a pretty -- you know, even George McGovern won his home state. I mean that is a serious statement that the voters of Tennessee have issued...

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

O'BRIEN: ... toward the Gores. A shot over the bow, if you will. Or actually, a direct hit, if you will. So the question is -- can they rebuild from that devastating loss?

BROWNSTEIN: And that really is the big question. You know, when I talked to the pollster for Lamar Alexander, the front runner for the Republican nomination, the former governor there, he said, "Look, this is -- she's going to have the same sort of baggage issues that Hillary Clinton had in New York without the advantage of a liberal state behind her." The Clinton/Gore administration had run into, you know, a lot of difficulties in more socially conservative parts of the country by 2000. We saw that very clearly in the Tennessee results. She would bear the burden, Tipper Gore, of Al Gore's negatives, which have increased significantly there. So it would not be a walk in the park. On the other hand, there's a general sense -- I'm surprised how strong it is among national Democrats that she might be the strongest candidate. A lot of name ID, a lot of energy, very good with crowds, but she doesn't like the press very much. And perhaps, most important, because this is a race getting started very late, she could raise a lot of money in a hurry.

O'BRIEN: And I suppose an enthusiastic endorsement from Hillary Rodham Clinton won't play so well in Tennessee and that linkage to the Clinton administration could be a real problem.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, that's a good point. I hadn't really thought of that. I think that's why -- well, I think the linkage with the Clinton administration would be mostly through Al Gore. And as you mentioned, the fact that he lost the state was a reflection both of the distance that had emerged between him and it, but also, the way that the state has changed -- gun owners, social conservatives, Christian conservatives. That's a big vote in Tennessee. It's really less of a swing state than we think of it as. Tipper Gore would have to establish her own identity, try to separate herself from what people didn't like about the Clinton Administration.

Though certainly no one would really associate her with any of the ethical issues that were raised there. It would be more of the broader political connotations. She is an attractive candidate in many ways. As I said, she doesn't really like the press interaction, but she is very good on the stump. She is very good with people. Someone said to me on Friday that the Gore's are really the inverse of the Clintons. Tipper is the one with the people skills. Much like Bill Clinton, and the are sort of interesting sort of cross parallel there.

O'BRIEN: Quickly, because we are running out of time, but the conventional wisdom is that she has been a reluctant political wife. Is there much fire in her belly for this and what does she really believe in?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I bet she never thought about it before a week ago. I'm sure -- I would think the thought of running for office hadn't really occurred to her. She's been most active on issues during the Clinton years affecting the mentally ill. She had a concern in the 1980's long before it sort of hit the headlines about violent or overly-sexually explicit lyrics in rock albums. She has sort of a social conservative tinge to her in that sense.

I think she would probably pursue the basic Clinton-Gore kind of agenda of domestic investment, fiscal conservatism, sort of a centrist Democratic message, but I think she would over shadow any message, the sheer phenomenon of her running would probably be the main -- the messenger would be the message in this case.

O'BRIEN: All right, the medium is the message sometimes. Ron Brownstein, "L.A. Times," CNN political analyst, thanks as always for being with us on CNN Sunday Morning. We appreciate it.

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