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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview with Marc Ginsberg, Mark Perry

Aired May 05, 2002 - 07:05   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get some more depth and context from our two panelist who have been joining us frequently as this Middle East crisis had unfolded. Joining me from Washington is Marc Ginsberg, the former U.S. ambassador to Morocco and from Ramallah, Mark Perry, author of "Fire in Zion."

Good to see you both, gentlemen.

MARC GINSBERG, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO MOROCCO: Morning.

O'BRIEN: Mark Perry in Ramallah...

MARK PERRY, AUTHOR, "FIRE IN ZION": Good to be here.

O'BRIEN: ... just tell us about your trip. What were your first-hand impressions? In any way, did they ply your impressions from stateside?

PERRY: I knew the situation here was pretty bad when I came. And it was as bad as I thought it would be. I spent the night that they left Arafat's compound in Ramallah watching the tanks withdraw and crush the cars as they left. I went back to Jerusalem and then, into Bethlehem, snuck in Bethlehem through Biet Jala and met the Palestinian negotiating team.

The curfew in Bethlehem is still on 24 hours a day. It is a very bad situation here and very, very tense. So I wasn't really surprised it was as bad as I thought it was.

O'BRIEN: Do you see, Mark Perry, a way out of it in Bethlehem? Is there an obvious way out? I guess if there was an obvious way out, it would have happened by now. But what do you think?

PERRY: Well, I think it's going to be a long negotiation. It's a complex negotiation with the people in the church and with the Israelis. I thought two days ago that there was going to be a good start made, but there was an intervention by the Americans and a new channel was opened. I think that was a mistake.

I know they wanted to get this done prior to Sharon's leaving for the United States because I think it's very tough on him and tough on the Americans for him to be there while the Nativity siege is continuing. But it's going to take a while, but I think that there is a solution in place and there are a lot of good people on both sides working towards that solution.

O'BRIEN: What's the matter with this new channel? Why's that a mistake?

PERRY: Well, I think that the local people on the ground can probably handle it better. They know the people in the church. They know the complexities of the issues. There are tribal matters and clan matters at stake here. And it really is better for it to be handled locally, but -- and there are diplomats on the scene now.

I'm hoping that a breakthrough will come today. And we were close to one last night. And the final disposition of this case, I think, if they move deliberately and really talk to each other, can be done within 24 to 48 hours.

O'BRIEN: Marc Ginsberg, do you think the standoff there is likely to end any time soon? Do you see an obvious way out?

GINSBERG: Yeah, I think the obvious way out is to replicate what essentially was the negotiated solution to the situation in Ramallah where the United States and Saudi Arabia divided up the labor. The United States provided the -- and Britain provided the guards necessary to take the prisoners, those who were tried and those who had not been tried for the assassination of the former Israeli transportation minister and placed them in Jericho. And I think a similar solution is what is on the ground.

Mark, perhaps, may not feel as optimistic as I do, but I believe that the pieces are in place for this siege to end within the next few days.

O'BRIEN: Marc Ginsberg, with Ariel Sharon on his way to Washington, give us a sense of what might transpire in that meeting with Mr. Bush? How would you advise the president and what would you tell him to tell Ariel Sharon?

GINSBERG: I think the president, at this point in time, has an opportunity to reestablish a warmer relationship with Mr. Sharon after the failure of Mr. Sharon to heed his calls for an end to the incursion. Secondly, the prime minister arrives with...

O'BRIEN: Marc, let me just -- let me just interrupt you very quickly. How bad is the relationship right now, do you think?

GINSBERG: I think it's been a bit strained as a result of the president's unhappiness over how the Israelis conducted the incursion and as well as its withdrawal or its untimely withdrawal. So I think there is some fence mending that needs to be done here. And secondly, I'm sure that Prime Minister Sharon is reading the Sunday papers here in the United States on his way over and he's seeing that the president is determined to press him to accept the proposition that whether we or anyone else likes it or not, Yasser Arafat remains the only viable interlocutor as far as the Americans, the Europeans, the Russians and the United Nations are concerned. And this runs directly, 180 degrees, opposite to what Mr. Sharon and most Israelis feel. And so, Mr. Bush's primary responsibility here is first of all, to convince Mr. Sharon that the Israelis are not being stampeded into a -- into an international peace conference that may turn against them and secondly, to try to convince Mr. Sharon that the Americans are not going to let Mr. Arafat off the hook merely because they accept the idea that he has to be the person with whom the Israelis have to deal with.

O'BRIEN: Mark Perry, the administration is going to be pushing Ariel Sharon to negotiate with Yasser Arafat and yet, at the same -- by the same token, we come just off the heels off of what appeared to be an effort to -- it seemed as if he was headed toward exile at one point, certainly, or perhaps there are even questions of whether Israel might try to have Yasser Arafat eliminated. How can there be negotiations after all that has transpired?

PERRY: Well, you're exactly right and I agree with Marc Ginsberg 100 percent on this point. And it was six weeks ago, eight weeks ago, that Ariel Sharon called Yasser Arafat irrelevant. Well, he's now more relevant than ever. And the...

O'BRIEN: Well, could you make a...

PERRY: ... truth of the matter is...

O'BRIEN: ... could you make a case...

PERRY: ... President Bush will tell Ariel Sharon this.

O'BRIEN: Mark, could you make a case that Ariel Sharon helped make him more relevant by putting him in that situation under siege?

PERRY: Oh, I think that's -- no, I think that's exactly right. His popularity is soaring in the West Bank. And the truth of the matter is that if we're going to have Middle East conference or an international conference in the Middle East and Mr. Arafat isn't in attendance because Ariel Sharon doesn't want him in attendance, there won't be a conference. It's that simple.

So if the United States wants an accelerated peace process, and I hope that's what this conference will -- that they're talking about, will be about, then, Yasser Arafat has to represent the Palestinian people. They elected him. Ariel Sharon doesn't have to like him. The Palestinian have to like him and they chose him. He'd have to be in attendance and he'll have to be the negotiator.

O'BRIEN: Mark Perry, I'm just curious what your thoughts are on this -- the potential success for this peace conference. You know, whenever you get big groups like this together, they spend an awful lot of time just discussing what shape the table should be. Do you see much opportunity there to add some momentum to peace as the discussion has been so far?

PERRY: I am, frankly, very pessimistic. My reading of what the administration has said is that these will be talks about talks and we'll talk about this and we'll talk about that and we'll talk about this and then, we'll talk about the shape of the table. And in the meantime, in the West Bank and Gaza, the settlements will increase and increase and people will become more and more frustrated. And if that's what happens, then all of the talk won't matter and violence will come back here. And I am very fearful of the future unless the United States commits itself to an accelerated process that will lead to a final settlement within the next six months to one year. That will take political courage on the part of the president and it will mean political leverage against Ariel Sharon.

And frankly, I don't think the administration has in it them. And I don't -- I haven't seen any evidence that that's what they're interested in.

O'BRIEN: Marc Ginsberg, do you think these talks are doomed to fail because they will get caught up in all the polemics?

GINSBERG: I hope I can convince my colleague in Ramallah that perhaps maybe the administration after 11 months of reluctance to engage has fully engaged, that there seems to have been a real important breakthrough with the Arab -- moderate Arab states to divide the labor up. The Americans will be responsible for shepherding the Israelis closer to compromise and perhaps, perhaps -- and I'm not prepared to invest a lot in this -- the Saudis, the Jordanians, the Moroccans and others recognize that for 50 years Mr. Arafat has been an irresponsible leader for the Palestinian people and that perhaps they need to do more to convince him as well as the Palestinians that there is indeed a vision for peace and that there is a hope for a more accelerated negotiation at this proposed peace conference.

I do believe that it is fraught with all sorts of dangers, but we have no alternative, Miles. There has to be a conference that realizes the vision of a Palestinian state. It is viable and it gives the Israelis security and an opportunity to believe that whoever emerges ultimately from the Palestinian leadership can be a secure and reasonable interlocutor as well as responsible neighbor. And that's going to take a great deal to get from here to there.

So Mark, I only assure you that at least here in Washington, while this administration perhaps is not -- has not done enough, I see much more engagement and I see much more willingness by the president to compel the Israelis to reach some compromises. And it's now up to the Arabs as well as the Palestinian people to not let Mr. Arafat remain the head of terrorist central in the West Bank.

O'BRIEN: All right, gentlemen, we're out of time. We're about to lose Mark Perry's satellite. So we apologize. We'd love to continue the discussion. Marc Ginsberg, Mark Perry, we appreciate it. We'll see you again...

PERRY: Sure, thank you.

O'BRIEN: ... on "CNN SATURDAY" and SUNDAY MORNING.

GINSBERG: Thank you.

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