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CNN Sunday Morning

Nuclear War Between India, Pakistan Remote Possibility

Aired June 02, 2002 - 08:01   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: The world is watching South Asia closely this morning, hoping for a chance nuclear rivals Pakistan and India will agree to peace talks while nearly a million of their troops face off along their border in Kashmir. The leaders are headed to a 16 nation conference in Kazakhstan.

CNN's Matthew Chance is covering the developments. He joins us now live with the latest from there -- hi, Matthew.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Kyra. A lot of anticipation, as you mentioned there, around the world and of course, in the region, about what the coming days will bring here in the Kazak city of Almaty, whether it could yield an ice breaking face-to-face meeting between the Indian and Pakistani leaders.

Certainly, that is the hope of the Russian delegation who is expected to be arriving here tomorrow, headed by Vladimir Putin, saying they hope to bring the two sides together to discuss the disputed issue of Kashmir.

President Musharraf of Pakistan has indicated that he is willing to sit down across the table from his Indian counterpart, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, to discuss the possibilities of easing the tensions over Kashmir.

India, though, for its part, is indicating that it's not prepared to do that at this stage, saying that it doesn't see any need for third-party mediation in what it considers to be a dispute that should be sorted out between India and Pakistan. So essentially rejecting, at this stage, attempts by the Russian delegation to bring the two sides together.

However, having that said, because of the high tensions over Kashmir, because of the threat of war between India and Pakistan, and the possibility that that indicates as well of a nuclear exchange of some type, however dreadful that may seem, it means a great deal of diplomatic pressure is being placed on both sides, on Pakistan to stem the flow of militants moving across the border. The line of control, rather, into Indian administered Kashmir to prevent that. A lot of diplomatic pressure also being place on India and seize the opportunity here in Kazakhstan to sit down across the table from the Pakistani president, or at least from Pakistani delegates to try and sort out some kind of agreement, if not to solve the Kashmiri question, at least to try to ease the very high tensions between the two countries at this stage over the issue -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Matthew, back here at home in the United States, we've been talking a lot about the nuclear threat. What is the word on the streets there with regards to the reality of a nuclear war?

CHANCE: Well, I mean, everybody is saying that it's unthinkable at this stage. Certainly, in an interview with CNN just yesterday, Pervez Musharraf had said nobody in their right mind would undertake a nuclear war in the subcontinent. The fact of the matter is, though, that these are two very large armies that are facing off over each other -- facing off across a very volatile territory. Both of those militaries are armed with nuclear weapons, and it's not easy to rule out the possibility that if things go from worse to worse, if a conflict does erupt on the subcontinent, I don't think there is anybody out there who will totally rule out the possibility of some kind of limited nuclear exchange. Indeed, the U.S. government has released some statistics saying that more than -- perhaps as many as 17 million people could be killed in an exchange between India and Pakistan. So, it is a remote possibility, let's say, but a very real one, still.

PHILLIPS: Matthew Chance, thank you. For more now on the military confrontation in Kashmir and what may happen next, we turn to CNN Military Analyst General Wesley Clark, who joins us live from Little Rock -- General, good morning.

GENERAL WESLEY CLARK, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Good morning, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Well, let's talk about the U.S. troops on the ground in Pakistan. How does this affect the dynamic in the region, and how do troops deal with the situation that is happening right now?

CLARK: Well, the U.S. troops themselves are going to continue to go about their business, they are going to pay attention to their own security. But their presence inside Pakistan, as well as in Afghanistan, underscores U.S. interests in the region, and so it gives us a greater stake in the outcome. So when Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld goes over, he is going to not only be worried about nuclear war in general, or the conflict in general, he is going to be worried about the safety of the American troops. Gives him a greater ability to put pressure on the Pakistanis to hold off on the infiltration, and it also gives some assurance to the Pakistanis that perhaps the Indians won't use nuclear weapons, because they're afraid of harming the Americans. It gets us into this situation in a way we wouldn't have been before.

PHILLIPS: Well, let's talk about the safety of the troops. If you were in charge, if you were heading up these troops, how would you lead them right now, strategically, and also with regard to safety?

CLARK: Well, my main concern for the safety of the troops right now would be that in the unlikely event that something were to happen to Musharraf, and he were to lose power, in an unfolding scenario over a matter of days or weeks on this Kashmiri issue, that the troops themselves in Pakistan could become isolated, they could become hostages, even, if the Pakistani military were to disintegrate or turn against its alignment with the United States. I think this is a relatively remote possibility, and so what I would be trying to do, as the commander on the ground, is continue the struggle against al Qaeda, use the elite forces inside Western Pakistan, continue to work with some 65,000 Pakistani paramilitary troops who are in Western Pakistan, and just continue the mission, being alert to possible changes, but no overt changes now.

PHILLIPS: How do you prepare U.S. troops for nuclear war? Obviously, they have to be thinking about it, they have to be prepared. You don't know what is going to happen.

CLARK: Well, we have got basic training on all of these matters in our -- inside our armed forces. Our officers, our sergeants, our troops have some rudimentary understanding. It's a matter, really, of defensive measures, if it were were to come to that, and what that really means is that the specialists who have the training, have the tools to detect the presence of radiation, and to move people away from areas of high radiation, and so these are the defensive measures that would be taken after an exchange of nuclear weapons between India and Pakistan. But this is unlikely right now, and so, probably, they're doing no more than making sure that they have batteries in their radiation detecting devices right now.

PHILLIPS: You mentioned Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld and Armitage are on their way to the region. How crucial of a role do both of these men play right now? What can they do, what kind of effect?

CLARK: Well, I think they have a potentially crucial role and, frankly, both sides are playing for them. The Indians want the infiltration stopped. They want the quarrel over their control of their portion of Kashmir stopped. The Pakistanis want that quarrel internationalized, and what they would like is some diplomatic negotiations that would lead to a plebiscite inside Kashmir. And both sides are using military force to underscore their determination and to put pressure on the other side, and so Secretary Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Armitage are landing right in the middle of this.

For every bit of pressure that the United States imposes, there is going to be pressure imposed on the United States, because now we have an interest in it. We want Pakistan's support in this war on terrorism, and for the Indians, of course, they're using the same logic against Pakistan that we used against the Taliban. They're saying, if you support terrorists, you're a terrorist. Pakistan has been supporting terrorism in Kashmir, therefore, that is a terrorist state. So the U.S. has practical interests, and it has logical interests on both sides of this conflict. So, it's a difficult situation.

PHILLIPS: General, final question here. I've been getting a number of e-mails all morning on the India-Pakistan conflict. I just want to read you this one. It makes sense, hits home here for all of us.

"If India and Pakistan start to exchange nuclear weapons, how will the fallout affect us here in Texas and the U.S.?" That comes from Greg Dieter (ph) in Houston, Texas. Great question. CLARK: Well, I think there will be some fallout, because if there is a significant number of nuclear weapons used, the upper atmospheric winds will scatter radiation around the world in a general way. But, because of their location, because the mountain ranges in between, because of the directions of the monsoon and other things, the bulk of the fallout will not affect us in the United States.

PHILLIPS: The line of control is a constant source of conflict between these two countries. Let's talk a little bit about what the line of control is, and why is it such a difficult area?

CLARK: Well, Kashmir is a difficult area because it has a Muslim majority population. The line of control is where the forces stopped in the last battle and, of course, the Pakistanis want to bring the Islamic population in Kashmir, which is most of the population, inside Pakistan, or at least to make it totally independent. And the Indians want to hang on to their state, they don't want to surrender this state. And so, the line of control is just the demarcation between the forces, and it's a very rugged piece of terrain. It's substantial area. It's impossible to fully police it and fully seal it. You can't build a fence across it, and the result is that there is always an opportunity for infiltration of forces.

PHILLIPS: Perfect segue, general. Kashmir is our next topic of discussion coming up. General Wesley Clark, appreciate your insight this morning.

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